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ABSTRACTAs a key determinant of household welfare, workers' real wages matter. Limited by small and infrequent surveys, the study of real wages in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has until now been constrained by a paucity of data. Using a novel dataset, we construct the first longitudinal series of wages for (to a close approximation) the population of formal private sector workers in PNG over a 3 decades span from 1999 to 2018. We examine real wage growth for the formal private sector in PNG over a 20‐year period using panel regression. Among the main findings are that conditional real wage growth has averaged about 4.5%. Also, real wage developments closely mirror the bust‐boom‐bust episodes of the macroeconomic cycle. Further, conditional real wage growth in the agricultural sector lagged that in services, industry, and mining with agriculture hardest hit during busts and lagging during the boom and mining the winner. Men experience higher conditional real wage growth during booms but also bear the majority of the decrease during busts. Finally, we establish the strong co‐movement of the real exchange rate (RER) and the conditional real wage, providing support for the RER as an important determinant of real wages in PNG.

Chilean publicly listed companies are required by law to pay out a minimum 30% of distributable earnings after taxes as dividends on common stock. The study extends Lintner's [Lintner, J (1956). Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividend retained earnings and taxes. American Economic Review, 46, 97–113.] model of dividend smoothing and Banerjee [Banerjee, S, VA Gatchev and PA Spindt (2007). Stock market liquidity and firm dividend policy. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 42(2), 369–398.] logistic model of the likelihood of a firm paying a dividend to investigate the signaling, liquidity, corporate governance, and information risk-based theories of dividends. The results show that Chilean firms' excess dividends are smoothed in relation to the prior period level of excess dividends, and lagged earnings do not drive excess dividends even though the mandatory minimum dividend is defined in terms of lagged earnings. This insight establishes that dividend decisions regarding the size of the excess dividend and the likelihood of paying an excess dividend are distinct from the mandatory dividend payment. Additionally, the size of excess dividends and their likelihood are higher at firms with higher growth opportunities, a result consistent with the use of excess dividends as a signaling device. Results also demonstrate that greater transparency is associated with a greater likelihood of paying an excess dividend, but transparency does not drive policy regarding the size of the excess dividend. Moreover, the corporate governance mechanism creditor monitoring influences the size of excess dividends but not the likelihood of paying excess dividends. These results have implications for securities regulators evaluating the pros and cons of a mandatory dividend policy to protect minority shareholders in emerging markets.

This paper was designed to investigate the linkage of Agricultural budgetary allocation and economic growth in Nigeria from an econometric perspective. The results of the analysis showed that in the long run, the relationship between agricultural budgetary allocation and economic growth in Nigeria is positive but not significant and in the short run, the relationship is positive and significant only for two years lagged value of agricultural budgetary allocation. This observed relationship is not unconnected to the low budgetary allocations to agriculture over the years in Nigeria. This implies that there is the need for a significant increase in allocations to agriculture in order to ensure that the agricultural sector plays a pivotal role in the national transformation agenda of Nigeria.

Entrepreneurship has gained increasing support from governments in recent decades. Entrepreneurship is considered to generate new jobs, innovations, and economic growth. In current research, a causal link between entrepreneurial activity and economic growth is maintained, where variations in entrepreneurship precede variations in economic output. Various models identify a positive effect entrepreneurship on economic development in advanced, innovation-driven economies in the most recent decades – a time when several Western countries transformed from 'managed' to 'entrepreneurial' economies. Self-employment is one of the most common indicators of entrepreneurship in both policy and research. The present study analyzes the relationship between growth in self-employment and economic growth in Sweden between 1850 and 2000. For the entire period (1851–2000), variations in self-employment had a significant, instantaneous positive correlation with GDP growth. Using Granger causality tests, the results in this study show that variations in self-employment did not granger-cause GDP growth. We discovered a structural break in GDP growth as early as in the year of 1948, which gives two different periods: 1851–1948 and 1949–2000. Between 1851 and 1948, Granger causality between self-employment and GDP in either (Granger) direction could not be established. For the other segment (1949–2000), GDP growth granger-caused self-employment growth, but not the other way around. Granger causality tests in the frequency domain show that for the period 1949–2000, but for no other periods, variations in self-employment lagged with GDP growth. Consequently, GDP growth preceded self-employment growth, but self-employment growth did not precede GDP growth. Given that self-employment is a suitable indicator for entrepreneurship, the empirical results in this study are, in several respects, in disagreement with dominating assumptions in mainstream entrepreneurship research.

AbstractAre governments able to continuously boost economic growth by spending for decades? Can the state be a more efficient user of income by improving the structure of public spending? The paper analyses the correlation between various types of public expenditures and GDP growth in different countries of the EU. The database was composed from the Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) classification of public spending, which contains data of 25 EU economies in the period 1996–2017. Three econometric models were applied in accordance with the empirical practice found in the literature: first-differences general method of moment (GMM), fixed effects panel and ordinary least squares (OLS) models. The expenditures on social protection proved to have a negative, statistically significant and robust impact on GDP growth. The results are similar for general public spending, and while spending on public order also has a significant and robust coefficient, its sign is ambiguous. The novelty of the article relate to the findings on lagged education and health spending, which have a positive impact on GDP growth.

In striking contrast to the notion that democracy is under threat because 'the middle' has been 'squeezed' over recent decades, Iversen and Soskice (2019) in their book, Democracy and Prosperity, present an optimistic account about the future of democracy. This paper examines their key assumption that the symbiosis between democracy and advanced capitalism is underpinned by electorally decisive middle-class voters that secure a constant share of economic growth. Using comprehensive data on income trends, it is shown that this claim does not stand up to scrutiny: median income has often lagged behind the mean in household surveys, rather than kept pace with it as Iversen and Soskice claim. Strong real income growth has generally not compensated the middle for lagging behind. The varying fortunes of the middle in securing its share of economic growth have implications for the broader debate about inequality and democracy.

AbstractThe rise of the Household Responsibility System has been widely viewed as a significant contribution to China's agricultural growth. However, this empirical conclusion is rested upon a convenient but doubtful presumption that the process of institutional change, also known as decollectivization, is exogenous. We contribute to this literature by explicitly recognizing the endogeneity of institutional changes, and exploit exogenous variations in lagged weather shocks and initial fixed assets for consistent estimation. With improved data on irrigation, mechanization, weather and institutional changes in a provincial panel data during 1970–1987, the results of panel instrumental estimations reveal that the Household Responsibility System had a significantly positive effect on China's agricultural growth, which was larger than indicated by OLS estimates that suffer from adverse selection and attenuation biases.

The nature of and the future potential for economic growth will vary across Indian States because of their differences in the rates of demographic transitions. The growing population of the young in some of the States in the east and north of the country, notably Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, opens up a huge economic opportunity. It is also a serious policy challenge-to create new opportunities that meet the rising expectations of the job aspirants. At the same time, for States such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which have an ageing population, there are limits to future growth based on labour-intensive sectors. Across Indian States, during the period between 2005 and 2018, labour absorption into industry, construction and services lagged way behind the increase in the potential supply of workers into these sectors. The mismatch between labour demand and potential labour supply widened after 2012, leading to an increase in unemployment rates and a large-scale withdrawal of women from the labour market. For reviving employment growth, India requires a mix of social, employment and industrial policies. The States should have greater financial and functional autonomy to implement these policies in a way that suit their specific stages of development.

Robert Jackman's criticisms (see abstract in SA 38:3) of the 1988 revision (Hicks, Alexander, "Social Democratic Corporatism and Economic Growth," Journal of Politics, 1988, 50, 677-704) of the Peter Lange-Geoffrey Garrett model of 1974-1980 growth rates (see SA 34:1/86Q3379) are refuted, & the model is argued to be robust in view of the original 15 cases. Jackman argued against the inclusion of Austria & Norway in the revised model, but these countries are primary examples of Left corporatism, & thus are vital to the model. New parameter estimates are computed, & it is shown that the expanded model is robust. Jackman's criticism of Hicks's substitution of the "catch-up" variable for lagged economic growth is also refuted, demonstrating that it indicates past effects of economic growth, & helps give the model a heuristic identity. It is also argued that the divergence between Left-Right politics exists, & that these divergences differ by country. 1 Table, 1 Figure, 38 References. A. Cole

This research tends to present fresh empirical evidence on the energy consumption-urbanization-growth nexus in the case of 34 OECD countries in the period 1996-2015 by applying Panel VAR analysis. Bivariate Panel VAR models suggest a two directional positive response of energy consumption (EC) to GDP (real GDP per capita). Moreover, EC is found to response positively to the UR (urban total population). The trivariate VAR model shows a significant positive impact of lagged GDP on the energy consumption. Additionally, lagged energy consumption is found to have a negative impact on urbanization. Urbanization is found to have a positive impact of the consumption of energy as well as on the economic growth. IRFs suggest a positive increasing short-term response of urbanization to the consumption of energy. The response of urbanization to the economic growth is positive and increases exponentially in the short-run. However, the response of urbanization to the energy consumption is positive but decreases significantly in the long-run. GDP is found to have a positive response to energy consumption but this response is decreasing in the observed period. The results of this paper suggest the great awareness of the urban citizens in OECD countries on their role in contributing to sustainable development by promoting sustainable energy. Hence, the policy makers need to do necessary changes to promote the renewable energy in urban areas in order to reduce CO2 emissions caused by energy based on fossil fuels. ; Bu araştırma, 34 OECD ülkesinde, Panel VAR analizini uygulayarak enerji tüketimi-kentleşme-büyüme ilişkisi hakkında 1996-2015 dönemi için yeni ampirik kanıt sunma amacını taşımaktadır. İki değişkenli Panel VAR analizi modeli, enerji tüketiminin (EC) GSYH'ye (kişi başına düşen reel GSYİH) iki yönlü pozitif bir tepkisini ortaya koymaktadır. Dahası, EC'nin UR'ye (kentsel toplam nüfusa) olumlu tepki verdiği bulunmuştur. Üç değişkenli VAR modeli, GSYİH'nın enerji tüketimi üzerindeki önemli olumlu etkisini göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, enerji tüketiminin kentleşme üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisi olduğu görülmektedir. Kentleşmenin, enerji tüketiminin yanı sıra ekonomik büyüme üzerinde de olumlu bir etkisi olduğu bulunmuştur. Etki tepki fonksiyonları (IRF), kentleşmenin, enerji tüketimine karşı, kısa vadede artan olumlu tepkisini göstermektedir. Kentleşmenin ekonomik büyümeye verdiği tepki olumludur ve kısa vadede katlanarak artmaktadır. Kentleşmenin enerji tüketimine verdiği cevap olumludur, ancak bu etki uzun vadede önemli ölçüde azalmaktadır. GSYİH'nın enerji tüketimine olumlu bir tepkisi olduğu ancak gözlemlenen dönemde bu tepkinin azaldığı görülmektedir. Bu makalenin sonuçları, OECD ülkelerindeki kentli vatandaşların sürdürülebilir enerjiyi teşvik ederek sürdürülebilir kalkınmaya katkıda bulunmadaki rolleri konusunda büyük farkındalıklarını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar, fosil yakıtlara dayalı enerjinin neden olduğu CO2 emisyonlarını azaltmak için kentsel alanlarda yenilenebilir enerjiyi teşvik etmek için gerekli değişiklikleri yapmalıdır.

Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal space and governance quality on inclusive growth in African countries.


Design/methodology/approach
In total, 28 African countries were analyzed from 2000 to 2020 using the generalized method of moment regression method. An inclusive growth index was developed using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. The PCA-derived index incorporates factors such as poverty, income inequality, economic participation and per capita income.


Findings
The main findings suggest that fiscal space availability (de facto fiscal space and fiscal balance) promotes inclusive growth. The study also showed that lagged inclusive growth, digitalization and governance indicators positively influence inclusive growth. The study concludes that fiscal space availability fosters inclusive growth, but this effect is mediated by governance quality in Africa.


Originality/value
Several studies examined the role of fiscal policy on inclusive growth. However, it is crucial to assess the fiscal space, that is, the financial capacity of the government to implement its fiscal policy without harming its financial stability. This paper, therefore, contributes to the existing literature by using de facto fiscal space indicator to comprehend fiscal dynamics contributing to inclusive growth. In addition, the paper uniquely constructs an inclusive growth index by including poverty severity, which considers both the incidence and depth of poverty and inequality in society.

This research investigated the influence of control of corruption on the economic growth of Nigeria
spanning from 1996 to 2022. The Autoregressive Regressive Distributed Lagged Model was employed for
data analysis. The study found that control of corruption has weak positive influence on economic growth in
Nigeria in the long run but a strong negative influence on economic growth in the short-run. The dual nature
of the influence of corruption control on economic growth in Nigeria—weakly positive in the long run and
strongly negative in the short run—can be rationalized by considering the gradual nature of institutional
change. The study recommends the empowering of anti-corruption agencies like the Independent Corrupt
Practices Commission (ICPC) and enforcing strict sanctions to influence cultural and moral change, while
creating additional agencies, promoting transparent leaders, and fostering public discourse.

AbstractIn this paper we empirically analyse the linkages amongst economic reforms, human capital, physical infrastructure, and growth for a panel of 44 developing countries over 1970–1980 to 1999. For this purpose, we generate aggregated reform indicators using principal component analysis. We show that the growth performance of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has been disappointing because these economies have lagged behind in terms of economic reforms. However, our analysis also reveals that the growth dividend of some reforms has been small. This is the case when structural reforms are implemented in an unstable macroeconomic environment (which corresponds to the situation of the MENA countries in the 1980s), and when macroeconomic reforms are accompanied by a low level of structural reforms (as observed during the 1990s). Our result illustrates the complementarities between reforms as modelled by Mussa (1987) and Williamson (1994). Actually, after human capital and physical infrastructure, our analysis finds that macroeconomic and external stability are key variables for the reform process and for the growth prospects of the developing world. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A test of the idea of "dependent development,"or "semiperipheral development by invitation," according to which investment dependence can be beneficial for economic growth in some better-off or semiperipheral countries. Based on criteria indicated by Immanuel Wallerstein, Richard Robinson, & Christopher Chase-Dunn, a pool of dependent countries is divided into two groups -- the semiperiphery & the periphery. A cross-lagged panel regression analysis of cross-national data shows that, after controlling for raw material exports, investment dependence is negatively associated with economic growth in peripheral countries, but positive in semiperipheral countries, thus supporting the hypothesis. 7 Tables, 2 Appendixes, 34 References. Modified AA

The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has seen a decade of remarkable growth and income convergence. Growth has been a key driver for reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It has been debated how much of this decade of growth has been driven by policy reforms and how much was due to the favorable external conditions. While external factors were supportive and relevant, the effect of domestic policies was just as relevant for explaining LAC's recent growth performance. The emphasis of domestic policy has shifted from stabilization policies to structural policies. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. The authors analyze growth in LAC using descriptive statistics and growth econometrics. The authors use these results for explaining the pattern of growth in LAC over the last decade, for looking ahead, and to identify potential policy gaps.