Suchergebnisse

In order to enhance fiscal sustainability and regain 'investment grade' credit rating, in 2011 Colombia implemented a fiscal rule (FR) on the Central Government's structural balance. Investment grade was rapidly attained, and FR targets were complied with, until 2019. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we provide evidence that the FR promoted fiscal discipline. Nevertheless, public debt has increased continuously and is now expected to exceed 60 percent of GDP, in large part driven by the pandemic. We argue that the FR should be reformed so as to incorporate a debt anchor. Using a regime change model and the IMFs buffer risk methodology, we show that the prudent debt level should not exceed 48 percent of GDP and that in order to achieve this in the medium term, a policy mix increasing revenues to 17.8 percent of GDP (from 15.5 percent during 2016-2019) and reducing primary expenditure to 15 percent (from 16 percent during 2016-2019) is required. FR's performance would also benefit from changes in its institutional design.

The collection of information on non-payments in the banking sector and their compact presentation in the matrix form in accordance with the required rules, the creation of various economic models (equities) of non-payments, elimination of different non-payment consequences and analysis are the intermediate scientific research goal of the article.

The collection of information on non-payments in the banking sector and their compact presentation in the matrix form in accordance with the required rules, the creation of various economic models (equities) of non-payments, elimination of different non-payment consequences and analysis are the intermediate scientific research goal of the article.

ABSTRACTThe theory underlying the effect of debt structure on the probability of a currency crisis and the slope of the yield curve was developed in Benigno and Missale (2004). In this paper, we provide the empirical evidence to support their model's predictions. In a dynamic panel data framework, we produce generalized method of moments estimates that give substantial support to the hypothesis that the role of short‐term debt depends on how a devaluation affects the reputation of the policymaker and the real value of public debt. In addition to the empirical analysis, we generalize the theoretical framework to allow for the presence of non‐deflatable debt and, for completeness, examine the case where the monetary authority can fully commit itself to an escape clause monetary rule.

The objective of the paper is to study the evolution of attitudes toward government debt over the period of human history from the Middle Ages to present day. This article is especially relevant in light of recent events. The skyrocketing government debt has recently led to the lowering of credit ratings in the USA, Greece and Italy, which may cause a significant economic downturn. To reach the established objective, the following research methods were employed: comparative analysis and synthesis, historical and logical approaches, observation and aggregation. As a result of conducted research, the history of the national debt justification was divided into five basic stages. The authors critically analyze the theory of capital erosion and demand-side economics. Detailed study of the first four stages showed that attitudes toward public debt evolved from total rejection to approval and all-round justification. However, global financial crisis indicates the transfer to the fifth stage, in which sovereign debts require reasonable restrictions and international regulation.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.17.3.2109

In an era when many of us depend on debt to survive but struggle with its consequences, Financing Prosperity by Dealing with Debt draws together current thinking on how to solve debt crises and promote prosperity. By profiling existing action by credit unions and community organisations, alongside bold proposals for the future, with contributions from artists, activists and academics, the book shows how we can rethink the validity and inevitability of many contemporary forms of debt through organising debt audits, promoting debt cancellation and expanding member-owned co-operatives. The authors set out legal and political methods for changing the rules of the system to provide debt relief and reshape economies for more inclusive and sustainable flourishing. The book also profiles community-based actions that are changing the role of debt in economic, social and political life – among them, participatory art projects, radical advice networks and ways of financing feminist green transition. While much of the research and activism documented here has taken place in London, the contributors show how different initiatives draw from and generate inspiration elsewhere, from debt audits across the global south, creative interventions around the UK and grassroots movements in North America. Financing Prosperity by Dealing with Debt moves beyond critique to present a wealth of concrete ways to tackle debt and forge the prosperous communities we want for the future.

The European debt crisis has revealed serious deficiencies and risks on a proper functioning of the monetary union. Against this backdrop, early warning systems are of crucial importance. In this study that focuses on euro area member states, the robustness of early warning systems to predict crises of government debt is evaluated. Robustness is captured via several dimensions, such as the chronology of past crises, econometric methods, and the selection of indicators in forecast combinations. The chosen approach is shown to be crucial for the results. Therefore, the construction of early warning systems should be based on a wide set of variables and methods in order to be able to draw reliable conclusions.

SUMMARYThis paper contains ‐ in the context of consumption behavior – some empirical tests for the debt neutrality hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, the tax/debt financing mix of government spending does not matter. The large international cross section‐time series data from OECD countries lends no support to the coefficient restrictions implied by the debt neutrality hypothesis. This result turns out to be robust with respect to various ways of measuring the public sector deficit variable, to weighting patterns, to additional variables, to various data samples and to estimation methods.

Debt is common in daily transactions, but it may bring great harm to individuals, enterprises, and society and even lead to a debt crisis. This paper proposes a weighted directed multi-arc graph model DebtG of debts among a large number of entities, including individuals, enterprises, banks, and governments, etc. Both vertices and arcs of DebtG have attributes. In further, it defines three basic debt structures: debt path, debt tree, and debt circuit, and it presents algorithms to detect them and basic methods to solve debt clearing problems using these structures. Because the data collection and computation need a third-party platform, this paper also presents the profit analysis of the platform. It carries out a case analysis using the real-life data of enterprises in Huangdao Zone. Finally, it points out four key problems that should be addressed in the future.

This thesis applies several econometric methods to a selection of country panels to study how growth is influenced by financial development and government debt. The first part presents the thesis discussion, including a synthesis on financial development, government debt, money supply, and economic growth. The second part deepens the discussion with three stand-alone essays. The first essay models how financial development affects growth through utilization of technological innovation. Based on explicit modeling of the innovation channel of finance, the results show a significant and positive sign for the interaction term between the measure of a country's own innovation and financial development in the most important specifications. This suggests that the innovation channel of finance is likely to be positively relevant to growth. The second essay examines effects of venture capital investment on economic growth in a similar framework. The findings demonstrate that the interaction of venture capital with innovation has a positive and statistically significant coefficient. Further, the joint impact related to venture capital and its interactions is positive in most specifications, suggesting that venture capital is probably a relevant factor for growth. The third essay delves deeply in the effects of general government debt and general government external debt on growth of real GDP. It explores the long-standing endogeneity problem, includes other relevant debt concepts besides government total debt, revisits the issue whether there are threshold values for the government debt ratio, examines the effect of debt on GDP components and structure, uses timely and extensive datasets and extensive robustness analysis, and runs meta-regressions of the results of this and a many of other studies. Even with correction for endogeneity, the study finds modest evidence of a negative and significant growth impact for government debt. The evidence is not robust over all samples and specifications. The final essay also reports evidence of a negative and significant effect of government external debt in the sample of developed economies. The findings overall comport with those of recent papers that conclude that there is no universal threshold value for a government debt ratio that would hold across all countries. Further, government debt appears to decrease the private-investment-to-GDP ratio, but increases the GDP ratio for household consumption. The meta-regression analysis shows that the study's results on how specification features affect the estimate of the government debt coefficient are broadly in line with those of other studies.

Intro -- Foreword -- Table of contents -- Conventional signs -- Acronyms -- Introduction -- Part I. Pan-African overview of central government debt: Tables and figures -- Figure I.1. African central government debt -- Figure I.2. Central government debt -- Figure I.3. Central government marketable debt -- Figure I.4. Central government non-marketable debt -- Figure I.5. Composition of central government debt -- Figure I.6. Average term to maturity of total debt -- Table I.1a. Total central government debt -- Table I.1b. Total central government debt -- Table I.2a. Central government marketable debt -- Table I.2b. Central government marketable debt -- Table I.3a. Central government non-marketable debt -- Table I.3b. Central government non-marketable debt -- Table I.4. Ownership of local-currency marketable debt -- Table I.5. Gross domestic product -- Table I.6. End-of-year exchange rate -- Part II. African debt management policies: Cross-country overview -- I. Organisational structure of the debt management function -- Table II.1. Issuer of government securities -- II. Issuance methods -- Table II.2. Issuance method -- III. Auction design -- IV. Instruments -- Figure II.1. Issuance of government securities -- Table II.3. Instruments -- V. Issuance calendar and announcement of auction results -- Table II.4. Auction calendar and publication of auction results -- VI. Primary dealer systems -- Table II.5. Primary dealers and investors -- VII. Organised market, exchanges and electronic trading -- Table II.6. African exchanges -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Part III. Country tables and policy notes -- Angola -- Table III.1. Debt stock -- Table III.2. Influences on debt stock -- Table III.3. Ownership of local-currency marketable debt -- Figure III.1. Interest rates, Yield-to-maturity (YTM) -- Angola policy notes -- I. Introduction.