Suchergebnisse

AbstractScholarship on boom‐busts cycles in resource extraction often assumes that affected resource‐rich communities are at best reactive, at worst helpless, in the face of the large, exogenous shocks this cycle visits upon them. Researchers infrequently examine what communities themselves can do to improve their economic prospects and residents' quality of life amidst booms and busts. In this review paper, we identify and synthesize work scattered across disparate academic and gray literature—in planning, law, community economic development, rural sociology, economics, and political science, among others—to holistically assess what we know about how communities can use local policymaking to manage impacts of booms and busts associated with unconventional oil and gas drilling (UOGD), often called "fracking." We highlight examples of communities tackling this task using vertical and horizontal governance strategies and distill expert recommendations for how communities can build boom‐bust resiliency generally and in key areas impacted by UOGD.

This article documents evidence of business cycle synchronization in selected Asia Pacific countries since the 1990s. We explain business cycle synchronization by the channel of international capital flows and boom‐bust cycles. Using the vector auto‐regression method, we find that most Asian countries experience boom‐bust cycles following capital inflows, where the boom in output is mostly driven by consumption and investment. Empirical evidence also shows that capital flow shocks are positively correlated in the region, which supports the conclusion that capital market liberalization has contributed to business cycle synchronization. (JEL F4)

The fallout from the 2008 financial crisis has been particularly acute in the euro area Member States of the south-western rim and in the new EU Member States, due to their previously accumulated macroeconomic and financial imbalances. The perception that the euro environment provided a solid shield against economic instability shaped the incentives, expectations and actions of agents, markets and policymakers. This, in turn, eroded discipline at all levels: EU-wide surveillance, domestic policies and markets. The empirical analysis of this paper, focused on market discipline, shows that before the crisis credit risk premia neglected fiscal imbalances and hardly reflected external or financial imbalances, in particular in advanced economies. This result is partly explained by the masking effect of the expansionary phase on underlying imbalances. The crisis has shattered the perception of the euro as a safe haven for economic stability, where imbalances do not matter. Moreover, the severity of the crisis has uncovered the fragilities of the institutional framework underpinning the euro and is leading to its reinforcement by means of stronger economic governance and surveillance. Going forward, however, a further two factors may exert a greater impact on the future discipline and stability of the European economies: i) more stringent financing conditions by markets, contingent on fundamentals, although there are doubts on the persistence of this discipline in future expansionary phases ; and, above all ii) domestic policymaking conduct that is consistent with the constraints that EMU entails. These three forces could settle the European integration process and EMU on a more solid footing, although the jury is still out ; Las secuelas de la crisis financiera que estalló en 2008 han sido especialmente severas en los países de la periferia sur y oeste del área del euro y en los nuevos miembros de la Unión Europea, a consecuencia de los desequilibrios macroeconómicos y financieros acumulados previamente. La percepción de que el entorno del euro proporcionaba un marco sólido que protegía de la inestabilidad económica modeló los incentivos, las expectativas y las actuaciones de los agentes, tanto los políticos como los mercados. Esta percepción errónea erosionó la disciplina a todos los niveles, tanto la derivada de la supervisión de la Unión Europea como la de las políticas nacionales y la de los propios inversores. El análisis empírico del artículo, que se centra en la disciplina que podría haber impuesto el mercado, muestra cómo antes de la crisis las primas de riesgo no reflejaban los desequilibrios fiscales y apenas lo hacían con los desequilibrios externos o los financieros, en particular en las economías desarrolladas. Este resultado se explica, en parte, porque la fase expansiva del ciclo enmascaraba los desequilibrios subyacentes

AbstractThe Australian economy experienced very frequent and sizeable terms of trade shocks. These shocks at times were more pronounced than commodity exporting developing countries and disproportionately benefited the extreme top end of income distribution. Did they derail overall economic progress? Circumstantial evidence suggests that they did not, but hard econometric evidence appears to be rare. In this paper, I revisit the Australian resource curse question from a long‐run perspective. Using time series data on commodity prices, real GDP, real wages, non‐farm GDP, manufacturing share of GDP, and manufacturing share of employment covering the period 1900 to 2007, I find very little evidence of a resource curse. Commodity booms in general and positive agricultural price shocks in particular appear to have impacted the rest of the economy positively both in short‐ and long‐run. The positive effect is primarily led by expansion in manufacturing. This is perhaps reflective of trade protection, labour and credit market flexibility, and relatively open skilled migration in Australia especially during the post‐war period.

We exploit regional variations in U.S. house price fluctuations during the boom-bust cycle of the 2000s to study the impact of the housing cycle on young Americans' choices related to education and employment. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, young adults were substantially more likely to forego a higher education and join the workforce, lowering skill formation. During the bust years, the young, especially those without higher education, were more likely to be unemployed in areas which experienced higher declines in house prices.

We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries. A quasi real time signaling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have serious real economy consequences. We use a loss function to rank the indicators given policy makers' relative preferences with respect to missed crises and false alarms and suggest a new measure for assessing the usefulness of indicators. Global measures of liquidity, in particular a global private credit gap, are the best performing indicators and display forecasting records, which are informative for policy makers interested in timely reactions to growing financial imbalances. [Copyright Elsevier B.V.]

The importance of the interactions between global environmental and socioeconomic changes in shaping vulnerability and exposure to hazards is now increasingly recognised. However, relatively little attention has been focused on the ways in which these interactions help to shape planning and policy in response to both processes. This paper examines how the intersections between the twin crises of economic recession and climate change are influencing hazards mitigation policy and climate change adaptation planning in three of Ireland's coastal cities. The cities of Dublin, Cork, and Galway are important case studies for this analysis due to the magnitude of socioeconomic and environmental changes they have witnessed in recent years. The paper begins by using the double-exposure framework to analyse how the interactions between global environmental and socioeconomic change have produced the contextual environment within which decision making and policy formation take place. This is followed by the presentation and analysis of the results of semistructured interviews with local decision makers and stakeholders. These illustrate that the interactions between environmental change and economic crisis have created the material and ideological conditions in which a neoliberal growth centred discourse of economic development dominates all areas of decision making and-policy. This has important implications for environmental policy and planning in cities, promoting a vision of a modern competitive city in which technological solutions are the preferred means of addressing flood risks. These decisions in turn reshape the exposures and vulnerabilities of local communities.