Suchergebnisse

Using a rich dataset on individual firms in selected EU countries between 2005 and 2012, we document a surprisingly high share of assets tied in highly inefficient firms. Moreover, we discuss different channels through which institutions may affect firm financial developments and thus the long-run growth. Using Bayesian model averaging analysis, we discuss the importance of different types of economic, financial and political institutions. We show that high institutional quality improves the financial conditions of firms. However, too lax business regulations may worsen firms' performance possibly due to excessive risk taking behavior.

Using a rich dataset on individual firms in selected EU countries between 2005 and 2012, we document a surprisingly high share of assets tied in highly inefficient firms. Moreover, we discuss different channels through which institutions may affect firm financial developments and thus the long-run growth. Using Bayesian model averaging analysis, we discuss the importance of different types of economic, financial and political institutions. We show that high institutional quality improves the financial conditions of firms. However, too lax business regulations may worsen firms' performance possibly due to excessive risk taking behavior.

Following the ambiguous results in the literature aimed at understanding the empirical link between fiscal federalism and economic growth, this paper revisits the question using a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. The analysis suggests that the failure to appropriately account for model uncertainty may have previously led to biased estimates. The results from a sample of 23 OECD countries over 1975-2000 indicate that after controlling for unobserved country heterogeneity, there is no robust link, neither positive, nor negative, between output growth and fiscal federalism (measured as sub-national governments' share of own source tax revenue).

Linking pensions to longevity developments at retirement age has been one of the most common policy responses of pension schemes to aging populations. The introduction of automatic stabilizers is primarily motivated by cost containment objectives, but there are other dimensions of welfare restructuring in the politics of pension reforms, including recalibration, rationalization, and blame avoidance for unpopular policies that involve retrenchments. This paper examines the policy designs and implications of linking entry pensions to life expectancy developments through sustainability factors or life expectancy coefficients in Finland, Portugal, and Spain. To address conceptual and specification uncertainty in policymaking, we propose and apply a Bayesian model averaging approach to stochastic mortality modeling and life expectancy computation. The results show that: (i) sustainability factors will generate substantial pension entitlement reductions in the three countries analyzed; (ii) the magnitude of the pension losses depends on the factor design; (iii) to offset pension cuts and safeguard pension adequacy, individuals will have to prolong their working lives significantly; (iv) factor designs considering cohort longevity markers would have generated higher pension cuts in countries with increasing life expectancy gap.

What drives external performance of countries? This is a recurring question in academia and policy. The factors underlying export growth are receiving great attention, as countries struggle to grow out of the crisis by increasing exports and as protectionist discourses take foot again. Despite decades of debates, it is still unclear what the drivers of external performance are and, importantly, which ones policy makers can influence. We use Bayesian Model Averaging in a panel setting to investigate the drivers of export market shares of 25 EU countries, considering a wide range of traditional indicators along with novel ones developed within the CompNet Competitiveness Research Network. We find that export market share growth is linked to different factors in the old and in the new Member States, with one exception: for both groups, competitive pressures from China have strongly affected export performance since the early 2000s. In the case of old EU Member States, investment, quality of institutions and available liquidity to firms also appear to play a role. For the new EU Member States, labour and total factor productivity are particularly important, while inward FDI matters rather than domestic investment. Price competitiveness does not seem to play a very important role in either set of countries: relative export prices do show correlation with export performance for the new Member States, but only when they are adjusted for quality. Our results point to the importance of considering the "exporting stage" of a country when discussing export-enhancing policies.

Background Scenario design is currently not a standardised process. The formulation of storylines representing different dimensions (for example economic or societal developments) demands an investigation of assumption compatibility, coherence, and consistency. Scenario techniques that use expert opinion as the sole information source are particularly appropriate for personal decisions. Contexts where scenarios serve as decision support on a societal level—for example in political decision-making—benefit from unbiased, fact-depicting, multi-dimensional information that is available in statistical data. Methods The presented approach uses the well-established method of Bayesian model averaging for the formulation of consistent, transparent, and intuitively understandable quantitative scenario assumptions. These assumptions are used in quantitative models to produce outlooks and forecasts. Illustrated by the example of quantitative energy models used to investigate developments of the energy system by scenario technique, the approach contrasts with other scenario methods. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a method that allows for an evaluation of both system relation stability in terms of observable co-evolvement of phenomena in the past and of future system states of interest based on expert opinion where past evolvements serve as a point of reference. Results The results are scenarios assessable with respect to (1) the consistency of scenario assumptions in terms of statistical confirmation, (2) the suitability of a quantitative model to represent the scenario, and (3) the statistical uncertainty of the scenario for a given quantitative model. A transparent scenario construction process results in traceable assumption documentation (an exemplary communication is provided in the Appendix). Perhaps, the most important novelty of the approach is the possibility of communicating to decision-makers the associated uncertainty in easily understandable terms. The distinction between provable possible assumptions (based ...

A decision maker doubts the stationarity of his environment. In response, he uses two models, one with time-varying parameters, and another with constant parameters. Forecasts are then based on a Bayesian model averaging strategy, which mixes forecasts from the two models. In reality, structural parameters are constant, but the (unknown) true model features expectational feedback, which the reduced-form models neglect. This feedback permits fears of parameter instability to become self-confirming. Within the context of a standard asset-pricing model, we use the tools of large deviations theory to show that even though the constant parameter model would converge to the rational expectations equilibrium if considered in isolation, the mere presence of an unstable alternative drives it out of consideration. (JEL C63, D83, D84)