Suchergebnisse

By the fall of 2021, the Russian economy had practically overcome the crisis caused by coronavirus pandemic and sharp drop in oil prices in the first half of 2020, having returned in terms of GDP, industrial production and investment in fixed assets to pre-crisis levels. At the same time, the prospects for further growth of the Russian economy remain uncertain, since both in the short and long term, the balance of factors affecting the growth rate of Russia's GDP is shifted to a negative area. These external factors include the growing risks of a new financial and/or economic crisis in the world's leading economies (including China), imposing large-scale sanctions against Russia in connection with a special operation in Ukraine, the instability of world commodity markets, as well as the processes of decarbonization and restructuring of the world economy. Internal factors of growth comprise increased investment activity of private and state-owned companies (and in the field of national projects), expansion of non-resource non-energy exports, while internal growth constraints comprise possible decline in the working-age population in Russia and slow growth of the real personal income. According to the official forecast by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, after the recovery acceleration of the economy by 4.2% in 2021 (the first estimate by Rosstat — 4.7%), GDP growth will stabilize at about 3% per year in subsequent years. However, it is lower than expected growth rates of the world economy, but it is significantly higher than the average growth rates of the Russian economy over the past decade (about 0.7% per year).To reveal the growth rates structure, which corresponds to anticipated economic dynamics in Russia, we have used an approach based on identifying three components of GDP growth rates — structural, foreign trade, and business cycle ones. In this article a new decomposition method was applied, which assumes the neutrality of the foreign trade component if the oil price is at the average long-term values.In case of achievement of the RF Ministry of Economic Development forecast, actual and structural unemployment indicators convergence may lead to a shortage of labor in certain sectors of the Russian economy in 2022—2023. The solution to this problem lies in the sphere of external and internal migration policy intensification and measures for promoting inter-sectoral labor mobility. Estimates of the output gap show that it is advisable to pursue a stimulating fiscal policy in 2022 with a transition to neutrality in 2023—2024. Supporting the global spread of vaccines against coronavirus infection and the recovery of the global economy will contribute to an increase in oil prices and in the foreign trade component of economic growth in Russia.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That's well above the U.S. historical average growth rate of 3.1%. The new data put the Econbrowser recession indicator index at 3.0%. The current U.S. expansion has now continued for over three […]

The effect of using the average dose rate over a lifetime as a representative measure of exposure to carcinogens is investigated by comparing the true theoretical multistage intermittent‐dosing lifetime low‐dose excess risk to the theoretical multistage continuous‐dosing lifetime risk corresponding to the average lifetime dose rate. It is concluded that low‐dose risk estimates based on the average lifetime dose rate may overestimate the true risk by several orders of magnitude, but that they never underestimate the true risk by more than a factor of k/r, where k is the total number of stages in the multistage model and r is the number of stages that are dose‐related.

AbstractThis paper provides an approach for developing risk‐adjusted discount rates that follows naturally from the standard presentation of the weighted average cost of capital. In addition to examining the implied assumptions about the valuation of corporate debt, the paper shows the pedagogic advantages of the proposed approach.

IT IS ONE OF THE IRONIES OF CONTEMPORARY POLITICS THAT THE POLICY DEBATE INFLUENCED BY THE NEW GROWTH THEORY IS URGING SO LIMITED AN AGENDA OF INSTITUTIONAL AND SOCIAL REFORM IN THE PURSUIT OF ENHANCED ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE. IN SUCH A CLIMATE, IT IS OFTEN PROFESSIONALLY DIFFICULT FOR ECONOMISTS TO DISCUSS THE QUESTIONS OF POWER THAT UNDERPIN DOMINANT ORTHODOXIES ON HOW BEST TO TRIGGER ECONOMIC GROWTH. THIS ARTICLE OFFERS A FULL BRIEFING ON THE RANGE OF ECONOMIC THEORIES EMBODIED IN (OR EXCLUDED BY) THOSE ORTHODOXIES.

It has been proposed that geography influences economic growth for many reasons. Previous analyses of comparative development seem to have sidestepped the question of location-dependent depreciation. However the construction of new measures of tropical cyclone exposure enables us to consider the potential impact of this single source of capital depreciation. Using an estimate of asset destruction due to tropical cyclones, we identify the "sandcastle depreciation" rate, and find support for location-dependent depreciation by looking at average growth rates. This leads us to propose that heterogeneous and geographically-dependent depreciation rates may play an important role in global patterns of economic development.

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused unrest for all citizens of the world in the health, trade, economy, security, politics, transportation, human mobility and tourism sectors. As the second largest contributor to foreign exchange in Indonesia in 2019, tourism, especially hospitality, has experienced a significant decline in business. Starting from canceling room reservations to canceling various activities at the hotel. As a consequence, the hotel occupancy rate and average room rate dropped dramatically to 10% - 25%. This was also experienced by Hotel Noormans Semarang, which only had an occupancy rate of 15% in April 2020 with an average room rate below the price of IDR 300,000.00. The aim of this paper is to observe the strategy to increase the occupancy rate and average room rate during the Covid-19 pandemic at the Hotel Noormans Semarang. This research was designed with a descriptive qualitative paradigm. This research shows that the strategy of increasing the occupancy rate and average room rate during the pandemic at Noormans hotels in 2020 does not show positive results. However, what happened was the opposite, a decline from 2019 to 2020. The occupancy rate decreased from 70% to 36% and the average room rate decreased from IDR 332,094.00 to IDR 258,250.00. Keywords: occupancy rate, average room rate, hotel, Covid-19