Suchergebnisse

A collection of posts from this blog will be published as a book soon from Mayfly books. I am posting the introduction as well as the table of contents below.  
"…no philosopher has held any interest for me as long as I
was aware only of hid ideas, and not of his practice."
– Etienne Balibar There is too much to read. Too many hot takes, blogposts, etc. The
last twenty plus years have completely transformed the attention
economy of writing. The digitalization of text, combined with the
dissemination of social media has led to a proliferation of texts and
takes. Every moment from politics to popular culture generates more
tweets, blogposts, and comments than anyone can read. There is a
fundamental transformation of the attention economy in which it
seems that there are more writers than readers. How can any justify contributing to such a deluge. Does the world
really need more takes on Snowpiercer, Breaking Bad, and Trump?
Why write such things, and we reprint them here and now. In short,
why blog?I started the blog Unemployed Negativity in the summer of 2006.
I was in JFK airport waiting for an overdue connecting flight to
Portland, Maine. I started it during a brief swell in philosophical
blogging. I won't list all of the blogs here, and someone should write
the history of that period, but for a while it seemed like a new blog
was forming every month, and most were being updated repeatedly.

Most of those blogs are no longer updated, lingering on now as
digital time capsules of a moment that has passed. The activity has
shifted to other spaces, podcasts and substacks. I have kept at it for
eighteen years now, a fact that might attest to the persistence of habit
more than anything else. It is an important practice for me. I can only think of my continued engagement with the blog as a
particular kind of practice of philosophy. I take this term from Louis
Althusser and his students, Pierre Macherey and Etienne Balibar.
While there are multiple different definitions and debates about
the term and what it means, the fundamental underlying it is that
philosophy is a kind of activity. It is something that one does, an
activity, rather something that one is, an identity. I have never really
liked the idea that one who studies philosophy is a philosopher,
someone who has a reservoir of knowledge and wisdom. One has to
do philosophy, and that activity has to be constantly enriched and
transformed by an engagement with the outside world. In other
words, one has to constantly think and write about the books one
reads, the films one sees, the latest news from politics, culture, and
society; not just to make sense of them, or to illustrate philosophical
concepts, but to put those concepts to the test. In other words,
philosophy needs material, without it philosophy risks becoming a
dead letter of cliches and stock phrases. It needs a matter to reflect
on if it is not to collapse in an endless reflection it itself. This is
perhaps always true, but it becomes increasingly so as philosophical
reflection comes to us as categorized and pre-digested by all of the
various introductions, guides, and articles; if we know the names of
different philosophers we know that Spinoza is a rationalist, Louis
Althusser a structuralist, Michel Foucault a postmodernist, all of
these labels save us the trouble of actually thinking. G.W.F. Hegel
outlined this problem two centuries ago:  The manner of study in ancient times differed from that of the
modern age in that the former was the proper and complete
formation of natural consciousness. Putting itself to a test at
every point of its existence, and philosophizing about everything
that it came across it made itself into a universality that was
active through and through. In modern times, however, the
individual finds the abstract form ready-made; the effort to
grasp and appropriate it is more the direct driving forth of
what is within and the truncated generation of the universal
than it is the emergence of the latter from the concrete variety
of existence. Hence the task nowadays consists not so much
in purging the individual of an immediate, sensuous mode
of apprehension, and making him into a substance that is
an object of thought and that thinks, but rather in just the
opposite, in freeing determinate thoughts from their fixity so as
to give actuality to the universal, and impart to it spiritual life.  One way to free these thoughts, to remove them from their
reification in so many categories, is to put them into contact with
something that they could not anticipate: Snowpiercer and Althusser's
ideas on ideology and repression, Covid and Michel Foucault,
Spinoza and conspiracy theories. This is the first sense of what
could be called the materiality of philosophical practice: philosophy
needs matter in order to matter. This matter must in some ways be
alien or foreign to the philosophy at hand. It is precisely because
something does not fit into established categories and concepts that
it becomes something worth thinking about. At the same time, in
order for thinking to have any effect, any transformative relation to
not only the world, but any effect on itself it must be materialized,
it must be written. Writing is always a transformation of thought,
even if the written text never finds an audience beyond the person
who wrote it. As anyone who has reread even their journal, or
tried to revise something months later, can attest to, the person
who reads their own writing is not the same person who wrote
it. The text, the words, stay the same, fixed in their meaning, but
the thought that created it vacillates and change; or maybe our
thinking stays the same, fixed on the same point, but it is the text
that seems to vacillate, meaning something else. To write is always
to transform what one thinks, fixing the flux of impressions and
ideas into words and sentences, and in doing so one transforms
oneself. This is the second sense of materiality. The materiality of
the letter, of the text, undermines and calls into question the ideality
of identity. The difference that one encounters in writing their own
writing is nothing compared to being confronted by someone else's
interpretation or reading. People read what was never intended, but
these interpretations have an uncanny identity, they are both familiar
and unrecognizable.  These two senses of materiality, the matter considered and the
materiality of the text, create difference, or two differences, the
difference between the concept and its situation and a difference
between the text and its interpretation. Writing is not a pure play
of difference. There is, even on a blog, an attempt to connect and
reconnect the observations and ideas into something that could
be called a position, or point of view, I hesitate to use the word, "a
philosophy." As Balibar writes, "philosophy constantly endeavors
to untie and retie from inside the knot between conjuncture and
writing, or if you will, it works from within the element of writing
to untie the elements of conjuncture, but it also works under the
constraint of the conjuncture to retie the conditions of writing."
In blogging the emphasis is on the untying rather than tying, of
trying to see what happens when a concept confronts the cultural or
political elements of the conjuncture. This collection is an attempt to
see if it ties together.  A lot of blogging goes nowhere, become nothing more than a few
thoughts that never cohere into an essay or even an idea. It is in part
for this reason that I decided to call my blog unemployed negativity.
I remember reading about the phrase in some of the discussions
of Hegel's end of history brought about by Alexandre Kojéve's
influential seminar on the Phenomenology of Spirit. The idea was that
end of history, when the conflict and struggle for recognition that
had defined most of human existence had come to end, conflict,
negativity itself would be unemployed, without a use. It seemed
a fitting name for a blog. It seemed to be fitting for a bunch of
writings that were never conceived to be put to work. Not only were
they not planned to be books or articles, they were often in areas that
were outside of my official areas of expertise or training. They were
posts on television shows, movies, and comic books by someone who
did not study or teach on media or film. There was something of a
surplus, an excess to these writings. Writing outside the boundaries
of academic productive research and writing. Critical thinking,
negativity, working off of the clock; thinking does not stop just
because one is going to a movie or keeping up with current events.
I started this blog as someone who could not imagine publishing
on television or movies, leaving these thoughts unemployed, but I
should mention that since I started it some of these ideas have been
put to work. My book, The Double Shift: Spinoza and Marx on thePolitics of Work incorporates discussions of movies and television in
its argument about representations of work. Blogging transformed
the kind of writer that I am. I wrote often for my own self-clarification. It is worth noting how
utterly idiosyncratic some of the posts were, posts on the political
subtext of Planet of the Apes films, the economic structure of
dinosaur movies. Add to this a collection of philosophical references,
Marx, Spinoza, Deleuze, etc., and one has writing so idiosyncratic
to almost be unreadable. Part of the appeal of blogging is in the
absolute idiosyncratic nature of the writing. I wrote what I wanted.
Sometimes I wrote on a film that was being discussed and debated,
sometimes on some major issue like a Presidential election on an
ongoing pandemic, other times I wrote a review of a book that was
recently published in French and would never be translated into
English. Part of the unemployed nature of the negativity is that I
was not driven by revenue or clicks.

I did manage to find readers,
and even translators, as posts were translated into French, Spanish,
Portuguese, Turkish, and Farsi. This brings me to another thesis that
I have written about at length in my published, or employed writing,
and that is the concept of transindividuality. I do not plan to go into
it here except to say that one aspect of this idea is in rethinking the
very relation of the individual and community. It is not a matter
of engaging the community by suppressing individuality, by trying
to write in a neutral voice, but that idiosyncrasy and individuation
is not the opposite of some kind of community, some kind of
commonality, but its necessary condition.  One of the clichés of writing is that one always imagines an
audience. I am not sure if I ever did that, at least in any specific
sense. However, part of the impetus for blogging came from my own
experience as a graduate student and that shaped my idea of audience.
First, in graduate school I developed the habit of writing a lot, a lot
more than I would ever use in papers or classes. I was in a number of
reading groups, groups on Marx's Capital, on Althusser, on Deleuze,
and many more. In these groups we constantly read and wrote small
reports for each other, building collective knowledge. Many of my
blogposts are modeled on that line, reviews, small book reports to a
collective that does not exist, or would perhaps exist in and through
reading it. I was in graduate school before the age of blogs, but we
did have listservs. These listservs were sometimes the only place that
I could read about some of my interests that were outside of the
standard philosophy curriculum. I learned a lot about Autonomia and
Operaismo from the listserv called AUT-OP-Sy (which I believe stood
for Autonomia, Operaismo, and Syndicalism), even Deleuze and
Guattari were discussed more on blogs than in classes or books back
then—as hard as that is to believe. These listservs made it possible
for me to understand things that were not taught at my school or
discussed by my peers. Graduate reading groups and listservs were a
huge part of my education. They allowed me to engage with ideas and
perspectives outside of the expertise of the faculty at my university,
setting up lateral communications of knowledge that short-circuited
the hierarchies between advisor and student. Blogging was an attempt
to continue and maintain the kind of community, both face to face
and virtual, that I found in graduate school.

All of this sounds rather self-important for a bunch of pieces
written under the hold of insomnia, or while having a cup of coffee
in the morning, but I firmly believe that philosophy has accepted
the university as its natural environment at its peril. This has
excluded a great many people who want to continue to think and
reflect, but do not have access to classrooms or teachers, and more
importantly this natural environment has proven to be ultimately
quite hostile to thinking and reflection. Its focus is an accreditation
and jobs training, tasks that often stand in the way of the practice
of philosophy. Universities are cutting philosophy programs every
year. If philosophy, if thinking the intersection of conjunctures and
concepts, is going to continue to have a future, and I think it must,
it will have to find new spaces and methods of communication.
Blogging might not be all of that, but it is at least a start. Speaking of community, I would like to thank the editors of
Mayfly books for having the idea of publishing this book, and the
help of Emrah Ali Karakilic, Charles Barthold, and Jess Parker. I
also would like to thank the people who took it upon themselves to
translate some of these posts into French (David Buxton), Spanish
(Javier Sanz Paz and Jaime Ortega), and Italian (Gigi Roggerro).
They are all part of the community referred to above.
The table of contents are below: every piece has been edited and revised for publication.

 Anyone who has ever taken or taught a philosophy class is familiar with the claim "[Blank] is subjective" in which the [Blank] in question could be anything from literary interpretations to ethical norms. This response effectively ends any and all cultural and philosophical discussion, which is why it is so aggravating. One response is to argue against this claim, to point out that not every interpretation of a poem, novel, or film, is authorized, that there are better or worse interpretations, with respect to cultural version. With respect to the ethical or political arguments it is tempting to point out that the very existence of ethics, of society, presupposes norms that are shared as well as debated and challenged.What if we took a different perspective? Instead of arguing against this view, ask the question of its conditions. To offer a criticism in the Marxist sense. By Marxist sense I mean specifically the criticism that Marx offers of idealism, of philosophy, in The German Ideology. In that text Marx gives the conditions of how it is that the world appears so upside down that ideas and their criticism rather than material conditions drive and determine history. So we could ask a similar question, how has subjectivity, subjective opinion and perspective, has come to appear as so prevalent and powerful. How did we come to live under the reign of subjectivity?In a move that will surprise no one who has read this blog that I find a useful starting point for answering this question Frank Fischbach's book Marx with Spinoza. In that text Fischbach argues that rather than seen alienation as an alienation from subjectivity, a reduction of a subject to an object, it is subjectivity itself that is an alienation, an alienation from objectivity, a privation of the world.  As Fischbach argues:"The reduction of human beings, by this abstraction, from natural and living beings to the state of 'subjects' as owners of a socially average labour power indicates at the same time the completion of their reduction to a radical state of impotence: for the individual to be conceived and to conceive of itself as a subject it is necessary that it see itself withdrawn and subtracted from the objective conditions of its natural activity; in other words, it is necessary that 'the real conditions of living labour' (the material worked on, the instruments of labour and the means of subsistence which 'fan the flames of the power of living labour') become 'autonomous and alien existences'"And also: "This is why we interpret Marx's concept of alienation not as a new version of a loss of the subject in the object, but as a radically new thought, of the loss of the essential and vital objects for an existence that is itself essentially objective and vital....Alienation is not therefore the loss of the subject in the object it is the loss of object for a being that is itself objective. But the loss of proper objects and the objectivity of its proper being is also the loss of all possible inscription of one's activity in objectivity, it is the loss of all possible mastery of objectivity, as well as other effects: in brief, the becoming subject is essentially a reduction to impotence. The becoming subject or the subjectivation of humanity is thus inseparable according to Marx from what is absolutely indispensable for capitalism, the existence of a mass of "naked workers"—that is to say pure subjects possessors of a perfectly abstract capacity to work—individual agents of a purely subjective power of labor and constrained to sell its use to another to the same extent that they are totally dispossessed of the entirety of objective conditions (means and tools of production, matter to work on) to put to effective work their capacity to work."At the basis of subjectivity, of subjectivity understood as an abstract and indifferent capacity, there is the indifferent capacity of labor power. Behind the figure of the subject there is the worker. I have already argued elsewhere on this blog that this reading of the Marx/Spinoza connection could be understood as one which reflects and critically addressed our contemporary situation in which subjecitivity, a subjectivity understood as potential and capacity, is seen as the condition of our freedom rather than our subjection. What Fischbach suggests through a reading of Marx and Spinoza that such capacity, capacity abstracted and separated from the material conditions of its emergence and  activity, can only really be impotence. Just as a worker cut off from the conditions of labor is actually poverty, a subject cut off from the conditions of its actualization is impotence. What now I find provocative about this analysis is that if we think of it as a general schema in which an objective relation, a relation to objects but also others, is transformed into a subjective potential or capacity it is possible to argue that the constitution of subjectivity through labor power is only one such transformation, and that the current production of subjectivity is itself the product of several successive revolutions in which subjective potentials displace objective relations. One could also talk about the creation of subjectivity as buying power, as a pure capacity to purchase. I know that criticisms of consumer society from the fifties and sixties today seem moralistic and often passé. I am thinking here of Baudrillard, Debord, Lefebvre, and of course Horkheimer and Adorno. It is worth remembering, however, that some of the early critics were less interested in moralizing criticisms of materialism as they were in this kind of constitution of subjectivity. As Jean Baudrillard wrote in The Consumer Society, 'It is difficult to grasp the extent to which the
current training in systematic, organized consumption is the equivalent and extension, in
the twentieth century, of the great nineteenth-century long process of the training of rural
populations for industrial work.'One person who continued such an an analysis is Bernard Stiegler. Stiegler even uses the same word, "proletarianization" to describe both the loss of skills and knowledge by the worker and the loss of skills and knowledge by the consumer.  As I wrote in The Politics of Transindividuality:"At first glance, the use of the term proletarianisation to describe the transindividuation of the consumer would seem to be an analogy with the transformation of the labour process: if proletarianisation is the loss of skills, talents, and knowledge until the worker becomes simply interchangeable labour power, then the broader proletarianisation of daily life is the loss of skills, knowledge, and memory until the individual becomes simply purchasing power. Stiegler's use of proletarianisation is thus simultaneously broader and more restricted than Marx, broader in that it is extended beyond production to encompass relations of consumption and thus all of life, but more restricted in that it is primarily considered with respect to the question of knowledge. The transfer of knowledge from the worker to the machine is the primary case of proletarianisation for Stiegler, becoming the basis for understanding the transfer of knowledge of cooking to microwaveable meals and the knowledge of play from the child to the videogame. Stiegler does not include other dimensions of Marx's account of proletarianisation, specifically the loss of place, of stability, with its corollary affective dimension of insecurity and precariousness. On this point, it would be difficult to draw a strict parallel between worker and consumer, as the instability of the former is often compensated for by the desires and satisfactions of the latter. Consumption often functions as a compensation for the loss of security, stability, and satisfaction of work, which is not to say that it is not without its own insecurities especially as they are cultivated by advertising."For the most part Stiegler considers this deskilling to take place in the automation of the knowledge and skill that makes up daily life. Everything from cooking to knowing how to navigate one's own city is now more or less hardwired into precooked meals and the ubiquitous smartphone. Other cultural critics have pointed to the general deskilling of daily life through the decline of repair, tinkering, and mending. The effect of all this is to change the consumer from someone who buys things based on knowledge and familiarity to a pure expression of buying power, an abstract potential. Just as the worker is separated from the means of production, from the objective conditions of their labor to be the subjective capacity to work, the consumer is separated from the knowledge to consume to become a personification of buying power. As with work the conditions to realize this buying power are outside the control of the consumer. We do not decide what to buy based on our knowledge of our needs and desires but on what is advertised to us as a need or desire.As much as the worker and consumer are opposed, making up two sides of economic relations under capitalism, they are unified, connected in the tendency to transform work to abstract labor power and consumption into abstract buying power. While abstract subjectivity is how these two sides of the capitalist economic relation function it is not how they are lived. They are lived as profoundly individual, subjective in the conventional sense of the word. What one does for a living is in some sense considered to be one's identity: "What do you do?" is in some sense equivalent to "Who are You?" Being reduced to abstract labor power, to capacity for work, is lived as a concrete and highly individualized condition, as my particular job and career. If for any one of the myriad reasons what one does is inadequate to constitute an identity, remains just a day job, then consumption or the commodity form steps in to supply the necessary coordinates for an identity. From this perspective we can chart not only the historical progression of the two identities, but also the structural similarities. With respect to the first, consumer society, consumption, and the myriad possibilities to construct an identity through consumption, comes after the worker, after the formation of capitalism. Any attempt to read Marx's Capital for consumer society, for the common sense understanding of commodity fetishism as the overvaluing of commodities, is going to have a hard time navigating the dull world of linen, coats, corn and coal. The consumer comes after the worker. However, it is also possible to see a similarity of a structural condition. In both case subjectivity is abstracted from, or separated from, objectivity, from not just objects, but objective spirit, in Hegel's sense, institutions, norms, and structures. This abstraction is lived as a highly individualized identity, in some sense work and consumption form the basis of individuality as such. However, it only has effects, only functions in the aggregate. As a worker one only has effects, both in terms of the creation of value, and in terms of any disruption of exploitation, as part of a collective. The same could be said for consumerism, even though it is through consumerism that we are encouraged to believe that we can have ethical effects as individuals, green consumerism, cruelty free products, etc.  Consumers only matter as a mass, at an economy of scale, even in the age of niche marketing. This can be seen in the impotent attempts to bring back cancelled products, or to change corporate strategies through boycotts. The only demands that make sense to corporations are those that are already effective in terms of buying power. I am wondering if one can see a similar structure of abstract/individual subjectivity in other aspects of society. I am thinking of politics, in which individuals are abstracted from any real connection to their communities and societies only to be constituted as "voting power," an abstract aggregate that is lived as a highly individualized identity. I will have to think more about that one. My point here is to connect the often asserted claim "that everything is subjective" back to its material conditions, to the production of subjectivity in both work and the reproduction of everyday life, production and consumption. It is not just a matter of a bad reading of Nietzsche that is behind such claims, although it is often that as well, but an effect in the sphere of ideas and discussion of what is already at work in the sphere of production. Abstract subjectivity is a material condition before it is an intellectual interpretation. The thread running through both is connection between power and impotence. If everything is subjective then I can offer any interpretation, create my own moral code whole cloth, live as I prefer, but if everything is subjective then I can do very little, nothing at all to alter or change anything. This is the fundamental point of intersection between Marx and Spinoza, subjectivity, individual subjectivity, is not the zenith of our freedom and power, it is the nadir of our subjection. Updated 4/15/24I happened to be rereading Tiqqun's Introduction to Civil War which offers the following on this last point, on the political subject as a subject constituted in alienation. As they write:"In order to become a political subject in the modern State, each body must submit to the machinery that will make it such; it must begin by casting aside its passions (now inappropriate), its tastes (now laughable), its penchants (now contingent), endowing itself instead with interests, which are much more presentable and, even better, representable. In this way, in order to become a political subject each body must first carry out its own autocastration as an economic subject. Ideally, the political subject will be reduced to nothing more than a pure vote, a pure voice."Tiqqun offers an expression of this idea, and in doing so captures what I was starting to think about before. However, they also offer me some reservations, especially in their tendency towards deriving an ontological or existential situation from a social condition. As with work and consumption, the pure subjectivity, the pure labor, buying, or voting power, is presented as the zenith of a kind of power, a capacity, maximize your labor power, express your preferences with consumer choices, and, most absurdly, vote harder, but this power is entirely determined by the existing labor conditions, market relations, and political structures. 

The first thing commuters saw when stepping into the Metro station beneath the Pentagon in late August was a poster for RTX: the world's second largest defense contractor, formerly known as Raytheon.RTX made $30.3 billion in sales to the U.S. government last year, 45% of its total income. To advertise to its biggest customer, why not target government decision-makers in the places they visit most? Thus, the thousands of commuters entering the Pentagon station each day were greeted by more than 60 RTX advertisements plastered across the walls, floors, escalators, and fare gates such that it was physically impossible to pass through the station without seeing one.This ad campaign wasn't the company's first rodeo, either. Ten years ago, RTX placed advertisements in the Pentagon station to promote a satellite control system. That same project is now seven years late and billions of dollars over-cost.The catch is that, technically, advertisers aren't supposed to be able to do this, as the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA, which operates the greater D.C. metro system) forbids advertisements that "are intended to influence public policy." But government contractors, reliant on public policy for their survival, are nonetheless allowed to promote their brands and hawk their products to the officials responsible for deciding whether or not to buy from them. A closer investigation into their marketing tactics reveals how companies like RTX and Google have taken advantage of this lax enforcement to hijack DC's public transportation system for their own gain. WMATA is not just allowing it, they're profiting from it.Notes from UndergroundAs the home to countless government agencies, Washington DC's population is dense with people whose choices at work can affect the entire world. This has made the capital metro system a magnet for government contractors and other advertisers looking to shape policymakers' activities.Yet a systematic analysis of that advertising has proven difficult. WMATA does not make advertising data available to the public, and has yet to respond to multiple requests for the data. A similar request was denied by Outfront Media, the private marketing firm contracted by WMATA to handle transit ads.So, I obtained what information I could the old-fashioned way — I rode the Metro, a lot. For five consecutive weeks, I visited 11 WMATA Metro stations and recorded the names of every advertiser. All were located within one mile of major policymaking institutions: Capitol Hill, the White House, the Pentagon, and the State Department.The survey recorded 75 different advertisers, excluding transit agencies. Fifteen received at least $5 million in financial awards from the federal government in fiscal year 2023. Four of those were universities and another was United Airlines, while the remaining 10 were government contractors. Altogether, these 10 contractors received approximately $83.1 billion from the federal government in FY2023. Nine of the 10 advertising contractors count the Department of Defense (DOD) as their largest government customer: Boeing, CACI, General Dynamics, Google, IBM, KPMG, L3Harris, RTX, and SourceAmerica. Ads for McKesson, which does the vast majority of its government contracting for the Department of Veterans Affairs, were spotted only within the McPherson Square station — two blocks away from the VA headquarters.While this survey was being conducted, Congress was preparing to meet in committee to negotiate the final version of this year's National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which annually authorizes hundreds of billions of dollars that ultimately go to Pentagon contractors.The data suggests that contractors are most focused on targeting the Pentagon and Capitol Hill. Contractors made up just 6% of all advertisers in Foggy Bottom-GWU, the only stop near the State Department. In the four stops around the White House, they averaged 9%. Among the three stops closest to Capitol Hill, this number rises to 21%. In the three stations closest to the Pentagon, an average of 46% of all advertisers were contractors.The Pentagon station, less than 200 feet from the building's entrance, was 100% occupied by government contractors. In Capitol South, similarly close to the offices of the House of Representatives, one-third of advertisers were contractors. The focus on these two institutions illustrates their importance in keeping contract money flowing: a slim majority of the massive DOD budget goes to contractors each year, and the institution plays a major role in shaping its own budget. The House, meanwhile, is where all budget bills begin. In short, contractor advertising appears to be explicitly targeted at those with the greatest sway over government spending.Speaking in TonguesThis pattern goes well beyond correlation. Many contractor ads are designed to steer a small number of commuters — agency acquisition officers and congressional appropriations staffers — towards specific government policies. To accomplish this, contractors often use niche language that only their customers would understand. One ad spotted in four stations near Capitol Hill and the Pentagon displayed the tail of a jet above two screens of text: "ENABLES BEYOND BLOCK 4 / ALL THREE F-35 VARIANTS" and "THE SMART DECISION."(Photo: RTX ad at the Pentagon City Metro station. Sept. 7, 2023 via Brett Heinz)This bizarre message, which caught the attention of social media earlier this year, is promoting RTX's F135 engine. Estimated to cost $26 million each, these upgrades can be added to "all three" versions of the F-35 jet, whose astronomical cost overruns have helped turn it into the most expensive weapons program in human history. Years ago, Lockheed Martin advertised this same plane in stations near the Pentagon with its own twist on a classic neoconservative slogan: "Peace through strength. Lots of strength." Today, RTX promises that its add-on goes "beyond" the Block 4 upgrade for these planes (which itself is running $5.9 billion over previous cost estimates). RTX has bragged to investors about the expensive contracts for its F135 engines, but it still faces competition from other contractors. The conflict between the two is set to be addressed by Congress during conference negotiations for this year's NDAA. To help secure its new revenue stream, RTX placed ads promoting it in places where the people working on the NDAA will most likely see them, using language that only they would understand. RTX did not reply to a request for comment.In the past, some firms have been transparent about their narrow audiences. Controversial contractor Palantir, which has handled many confidential contracts, once advertised in the Pentagon station with materials reading: "THOSE WITH A NEED TO KNOW, KNOW. Total Brand ExperienceOutfront Media's pitch to advertisers for the DC market area highlights its large audience of "political leaders, government employees, and corporate contractors." To help reach them all, they offer a "Rail Station Domination" deal in 13 Metro stations to allow one advertiser to occupy much of the available space within, an opportunity, it says, to "transform commuters' daily ride into a total 'brand experience.'"Outfront's list of "Domination" stations includes brief descriptions of why they might be attractive to marketers: "US Dept of Defense" for the Pentagon station, and "Capitol Hill" for Capitol South. Two other stations located near various regulatory agencies are listed simply as places to target "Government." Contractors have long taken advantage of these deals, such as Lockheed Martin's 2020 "domination" of Capitol South.The Pentagon station, a prime target for reaching DOD staffers, was one of a kind. The Pentagon is the most expensive station to "dominate" according to Outfront Media data which I obtained, even though it has substantially fewer riders than some of the others. Advertising to the 665,786 commuters estimated to visit the Pentagon station in a four week period costs $198,000 (about 30 cents per commuter), before fees. Yet in Gallery Place-Chinatown, a station in downtown DC farther away from government buildings, it costs only $120,000 to reach more than three times as many people (5 cents per commuter).These pricing differences suggest that there is a unique value attached to commuters visiting the Pentagon. Another factor is the Pentagon's unique layout, in which one advertiser can occupy the entire station for weeks on end, without any competition from others on digital screens. The five "domination" stations visited during this survey averaged 13.6 different advertisers over five weeks; the Pentagon featured only two. In the last week of August, every ad space inside the Pentagon station was occupied by RTX. For the entirety of September, it was Google.(Photo: Lockheed Martin ad at Capitol South Metro station Sept. 26, 2023 via Tori Bateman)Despite earning little from government contracts last year, Google ran a highly aggressive marketing campaign this September to attract more. Its domination of the Pentagon station featured over 60 ads about their commitment to partnering with the government on cybersecurity policy, one of which implied that the company was already acting in concert with the military: "The U.S. Department of Defense and Google are securing American digital defense systems."The company shied away from its nascent attempts to break into government contracting in 2018 after a controversial AI drone deal provoked employee protests. Google executives have more recently reversed course, increased their presence in northern Virginia, and unveiled "Google Public Sector" to fight for more defense contracts. Google Public Sector's current managing director served as Chief Information Officer at the U.S. Navy until passing through the revolving door in March. The company's success in winning part of a major software contract late last year suggests its efforts are already paying off.(Photo: Google ad at Pentagon Metro station. Sept 28, 2023 via Brett Heinz)At the same time that Google was dominating the Pentagon station, a second ad campaign downtown promoted the "Google Public Sector Forum," where company executives spoke alongside current Pentagon officials. Reached for comment, the Defense Department emphasized that guidelines were in place to ensure that "DoD personnel participating in public engagements" acted in ways "appropriate and consistent with DoD and U.S. government policies."Google's apparent dual advertising strategy reflects its diverse goals in reaching policymakers: accessing the deep pool of DOD contracting funds, lobbying Congress on a wide variety of legislation, and burnishing its image in the face of a historic anti-trust lawsuit filed against it by the Justice Department earlier this year.Google and Outfront Media did not reply to a request for comment.Defining "Influence"Sitting awkwardly with this phenomenon is a strange fact: according to WMATA policy, "Advertisements that are intended to influence public policy are prohibited." Ads for specific military equipment are clearly meant to "influence" government acquisitions, which are "public policy" by definition. Nonetheless, Pentagon contractors appear to flaunt this rule with impunity.
While WMATA has declined a number of political ads before, it is still quite common for advertisers to push the limits of what qualifies as "intended to influence public policy." No one pushes this boundary further than contractors. Prior to the ban's creation in 2015, contractors openly acknowledged that they hoped to influence public policy. When Northrop Grumman advertised its Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) system in the Pentagon station in 2007, a company spokesman said: "There is an ongoing campaign to win the BAMS contract… The Washington, D.C., area is where our customer base is, and we do want to build awareness for our products and services."
WMATA declined to comment on questions related to the rule due to "pending litigation on this issue." The American Civil Liberties Union has sued over this and other WMATA policies as violations of advertisers' free speech rights, and the case was recently approved to move forward.
Further complicating matters is a federal law banning contractors from spending public funds on "influencing or attempting to influence" government officials towards providing them with additional contracts. The rule does not seem to have dissuaded contractors, even those who derive the majority of their revenues from the federal government, from targeted advertising campaigns. (DOD spokesman Jeff Jurgensen emphasized that the agency complies with all relevant acquisitions regulations.)
Advertisers subsidize the DC Metro system by providing revenue that would otherwise need to come from either commuters or the government. WMATA hired Outfront Media to "maximize the revenue potential" of public transit assets, incentivizing the company to always go with the highest bidder. Still, WMATA's budget for next year projects that Metro ads will only bring in $10.3 million, roughly 0.75% of the system's total funding. This might save money on the front end, but advertisements encouraging billions in inefficient government spending could easily wind up costing taxpayers more over time, such that direct subsidies to replace WMATA's revenues from contractor ads could ultimately save money.
The seemingly arbitrary enforcement of WMATA's ban on ads influencing public policy allows contractors to recycle government funds back into efforts to acquire more government funds. This cycle encourages public officials to make choices based on power and reach, rather than cost-efficiency, fairness, or a rational defense strategy. As long as companies making money from policymakers' decisions are allowed to advertise in the DC transit system, this corrupt process will continue to thrive.

Alex Nowrasteh


The recent Supreme Court case about affirmative action in university admissions (SFFA v. Harvard) paralleled a broader social debate over meritocracy. Those opposed to affirmative action broadly say they are supportive of meritocracy. They believe individual achievement should be more prominent in university admissions, at least when the government is involved in university funding. The debate over affirmative action and meritocracy intersects with the immigration debate in two ways. First, immigration restrictions are the most destructive form of affirmative action. Second, immigrants and their descendants have been essential in reducing the scope of affirmative action in the United States over the last 30 years.
Meritocrats believe that individuals should rise or fall on their achievements. Those supportive of affirmative action are more skeptical of meritocracy, at least how it exists under the current system. They argue that meritocracy is bad, a myth, unfair, or that current means of identifying merit are insufficient because systemic rules or practices hold back some people in specific racial, ethnic, or other categories.
I'm a supporter of meritocracy, but a compelling point raised by skeptics is that the design of meritocratic systems can select wildly different types of merit. In other words, there's a principal-agent problem whereby the most meritocratic people design methods of gauging merit that favor themselves and people like them.
This problem could be to the detriment of specific organizations relying on merit and, eventually, to the rest of society.
Hard work, fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, personality, luck, physical attractiveness, and other characteristics contribute to merit in different endeavors and extents. A one-size-fits-all approach across all organizations doesn't make sense and is slightly less bad in organizations in the same industry. That doesn't mean some of the factors listed above aren't good predictors of merit in most endeavors, some certainly are, but their relative weights are important.
For instance, the combination of characteristics that make a successful film actor differs from those required to be a successful astrophysicist, CEO, or farmer. But that's just the supply side of merit; there's also a demand side. What consumers demand of people in different endeavors changes over time. Consumers want the best over time, but what they think is best changes.
That's why I favor the "competitive meritocracy;" that is, the meritocracy of the market over alternatives like massive government examination systems that exist in other countries. Under competitive meritocracy, firms and individuals seeking to increase profits, economic efficiency, and consumer surplus under competitive market conditions are incentivized to develop means to identify meritorious individuals that deliver. Otherwise, firm profits shrink, they go bankrupt, and consumers are left unsatisfied.
One of the beneficial results of a competitive market system is the identification and use of merit. Of course, government rules and regulations reduce the effectiveness of new merit identification techniques, but the market is better at identifying and producing meritocratic identification methods than other alternatives because it best aligns incentives to do so on the supply and demand sides.
U.S. immigration restrictions are the most anti-meritocratic policies today, and they are intended as affirmative action for native-born Americans. Ignore the myriad ways that immigration laws disadvantage certain immigrants relative to others, such as with the per-country quotas that make immigrants from populous countries wait longer for green cards. Just peruse nativist websites, and you'll see many arguments about immigrants taking jobs from more Americans who are more deserving because of where they were born. When people think of anti-meritocratic policies, they rightly jump to quotas, race-based affirmative action, or class-based affirmative action.
It's true; those are all anti-meritocratic and likely wouldn't exist in a free market outside of a handful of organizations in the non-profit sector. But U.S. immigration restrictions are worse. The U.S. population is about 4.2 percent of the global population. Immigration laws prevent the other 95.8 percent of the world from trying their hand in the U.S. market meritocracy. The cost of immigration restrictions is in the trillions of dollars, which makes the real costs of affirmative action seem small by comparison. Those who truly favor meritocracy and oppose affirmative action on principle should reject the anti-meritocratic affirmative action of American immigration laws.
Nativists agree with my analysis. They argue that the U.S. government exists to protect Americans from market competition, so it should do so with immigration restrictions. Nationalist affirmative action is still affirmative action. And lest you accuse me of hypocrisy, of working behind the protection of immigration restrictions while others labor exposed to the brutality of globalist labor competition, the sector of the economy where I labor is more exposed to legal immigrant competition than yours is.
One of the main arguments for immigration restrictions is to protect Americans. That makes sense when protecting Americans from criminals, terrorists, national security threats, or those with severe contagious diseases, because they could physically harm Americans or their property. It makes sense in the same way that the NYPD exists to protect the life, liberty, and private property of New Yorkers and shouldn't be enforcing laws in North Dakota.
But protecting jobs and wages or shielding people from the market doesn't make sense. On a purely principled opposition to preferences, meritocrats should oppose almost all immigration restrictions regardless of the wage effects. Immigration restrictions don't even work well to protect American workers. Ironically, immigration restrictions do more to protect the wages of immigrant workers in the United States than native-born workers. Affirmative action likely helps the beneficiaries more than immigration restrictions help American workers.
The idea of shielding Americans from market competition to protect them under the theory that that would make them better is silly. Industries protected behind tariffs and trade barriers tend to stagnate because they have no incentive to innovate or improve. Why would they when the government removes competition by legal fiat? Americans similarly shielded from immigration have less of a reason to get more skills, improve their human capital, or be more productive. As I wrote in my review of Reihan Salam's Melting Pot or Civil War?, labor protectionism incentivizes stagnation among American workers.
Salam fails to draw additional connections between wages and education. He worries about low levels of educational attainment among the descendants of immigrants but also favors restricting low-skilled immigration to raise the wages of high school dropouts. He does not explain how raising the wages for dropouts relative to other educational cohorts will incentivize workers to spend more time in school (hint: it won't). Salam is worried that automation will destroy lots of jobs, so he wants to stop low-skilled immigration by raising wages for low-skilled Americans and immigrants already here, which will just make it more likely that their jobs will be automated.

Maybe you favor meritocracy in university admissions and affirmative action through immigration restrictions. You wouldn't be the first person to have inconsistent policy opinions, but you support less meritocracy than you probably believe. Most people recognize that Texas' "Top 10 Percent Law" is thinly disguised affirmative action because it guarantees admission to the University of Texas to all students in the top 10 percent of their high school graduating class. Since students are geographically clustered in Texas by race, this law advantages some students based on race who otherwise wouldn't be admitted.
Harvard tried something similar when it adopted an admissions policy that accepted top-ranking students nationwide under geographic quotas rather than relying on admissions exam scores. The intent was to reduce Harvard's Jewish population. The Harvard freshman class was 21 percent Jewish in 1922, up from about 7 percent in 1900. Harvard's President Abbott Lawrence Lowell wanted to bring their percentage down to 15 percent and faced fierce opposition from Jewish students, the Boston press, and the meritocrats of his day. The geographic distribution system discriminated against Jewish students and reduced their numbers to 15 percent of the student body by 1931. Harvard later eased the geographic system and then ended it altogether. One should view the admissions policy as anti-Semitic, and the effect was identical to a policy that favored the admission of other groups like white Protestants. Regardless, the geographic admissions system was anti-meritocratic.
Despite restrictions on immigration, immigrants and their descendants are already indirectly improving meritocracy in the United States. Edward Blum, the attorney behind numerous challenges to affirmative action, including SFFA v. Harvard, lost a challenge to affirmative action in 2015 when he had a white female plaintiff. There are many reasons why that challenge failed, but afterward, Blum said, "I needed Asian plaintiffs." Law and the Constitution always matter to the Court, but politics and optics also matter for major controversial questions. When the issues are controversial and Congress or the President don't want to resolve conflicts or are otherwise at loggerheads, the Court steps in as a sort of super-legislature to decide the issue. Sometimes they rule to maintain their own institutional power in an environment where the power of Congress is declining, and that of the Presidency is increasing. Viewing the Court as a sometimes-super-legislature makes it clear that political narratives, public opinion, and other normal tools of political persuasion are important to ruling in a certain way. Without Asian American plaintiffs, it's hard to see how SCOTUS would have struck down affirmative action this time. It may have happened eventually because the arguments are good, but sympathetic plaintiffs and damning facts are just as important.
Beyond the plaintiffs in SFFA v. Harvard, immigrants, their descendants, and the diversity they bring to the United States have greatly helped reduce affirmative action through politics. As I wrote in 2022:
Voters in California—the most diverse state and the one with the highest immigrant share of the population—first voted to ban affirmative action when presented with Proposition 209 in 1996. Since then, progressives in the state have attempted to revive the issue. But in 2011, Governor Jerry Brown vetoed a bill that would have weakened the affirmative-action ban. Another proposal to re-institute affirmative action failed in 2014 after several Asian-American state senators defected from the effort in response to opposition from their constituents. "As lifelong advocates for the Asian-American and other communities," Democratic state senators Ted Lieu, Carol Liu, and Leland Yee wrote, "we would never support a policy that we believed would negatively impact our children." In 2020, voters affirmed the state's ban on affirmative action by a wider margin than the original vote to ban it 24 years earlier.

Asian Americans are the most likely to be foreign-born of any racial group. In 2019, two-thirds of Asian Americans in California were immigrants. As is clear to all after SFFA v. Harvard, Asians are the biggest losers in any race-based affirmative action system. Without them, it would be tougher to make the case that affirmative action is unjust. That's an unfortunate commentary on the state of political debate in the United States because the arguments against affirmative action are convincing regardless of who wins or loses, but those are the facts.
Furthermore, states with a higher foreign-born share of the population are likelier to have banned affirmative action than states with a lower foreign-born share. Interestingly, the share of the non-citizen population is best correlated with a state banning affirmative action. According to a piece I coauthored a few years ago, a 1 percent increase in the share of non-citizens is associated with a 27–34 percent increase in the probability of the state banning affirmative action. The share of the white population is not statistically significant in any regression we ran, and the measure of population-wide diversity is only significant at the 10 percent level in the 3‑and‐​5‐​year lags.
Affirmative action is more politically stable when they are two groups, one of which is large and the other that is small. Malaysia has a Chinese minority punished by affirmative action and a Malaysian majority aided. Apartheid South Africa punished blacks and favored whites, which was then reversed after the end of apartheid. The United States, with blacks favored and whites punished before large waves of immigrants in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, are such cases.
Of the above examples, only the United States has a substantial immigrant-induced demographic change that upended that relatively stable institutional dynamic by adding mainly Asian and Hispanic immigrants. Suddenly, Asians became the biggest losers of affirmative action, whites the second biggest, and Hispanics moderate beneficiaries. The goals of affirmative action became murkier – why would the U.S. government help Hispanic immigrants and their descendants with a program designed to help the descendants of black slaves?
Even more so, competition between disadvantaged groups seeking affirmative action lessened the benefits. Worse for the supporters of affirmative action, the biggest victims became a large and growing immigrant group and their children, a group whose ancestors were also targeted by racist laws like the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, various Alien Land Laws that barred Asians from owning land, and Japanese Internment.
There are three significant motivations for supporting redistribution, of which affirmative action is a type. They are self-interest, compassion, and malicious envy. Self-interest and compassion are obvious. Malicious envy is hatred toward a group that has done better. Immigration weakens all three supports for affirmative action. Immigration weakens self-interest by spreading the benefits among more groups, it weakens compassion because new beneficiaries have dubious claims to racial preferences under the justifications for the schemes, and malicious envy is weakened because the biggest victims are no longer whites.
Immigrants weakened affirmative action in the United States by being the specific plaintiffs in SFFA v. Harvard and changing the politics of the issue. But a far more substantial and destructive apparatus of affirmative action operates today through our immigration laws that bar about 96 percent of the world's population from participating in the American market meritocracy. Opponents of affirmative action should rest on their laurels by embracing just a touch more meritocracy just among Americans; they should embrace a true global meritocracy.

AMÉRICA LATINA Rousseff se enfrentará a Neves en la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/10/05/world/americas/ap-lt-brazil-elections.html?ref=worldhttp://www.economist.com/news/americas/21622767-president-dilma-rousseff-enters-election-day-handsome-lead-battle-second-place-toohttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732590-elecciones-en-brasil-dilma-rousseff-se-impuso-con-el-y-habra-segunda-vuelta-con-aecio-neveshttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/elecciones-en-brasil-crisis-economica-y-agenda-social-los-desafios/14631535http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/05/actualidad/1412500754_547837.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/06/world/americas/brazil-presidential-elections.html?ref=world&gwh=1222CDEA253F51A1B69194F2B9F59CB4&gwt=payhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29501500www.bbc.co.uk/portuguese/noticias/2014/10/141005_eleicoes_aovivo_bg.shtmlhttp://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2014/impreso/brasil-se-inclina-por-dilma-segun-sondeos-88582.htmlhttp://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/dilma-aecio-vao-disputar-2-turno-das-eleicoes-14152314#ixzz3FKDWXpkjhttp://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-brazilians-vote-president-20141005-story.htmlhttp://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2014/10/05/les-bresiliens-ont-commence-a-voter_4500768_3222.html Muere el exdictador haitiano Jean-Claude Duvalier. Para más información:http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/haitis-former-president-jean-claude-baby-doc-duvalier-dies-63-n218431http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29492262http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732980-baby-doc-duvalier-el-heredero-de-una-sangrienta-dinastia-que-goberno-haiti-con-crueldad-y-despilfarrohttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/muere-el-exdictador-haitiano-jean-claude-duvalier/14639836http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/04/actualidad/1412443789_056814.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/americas/jean-claude-duvalier-haitis-baby-doc-dies-at-63.html?ref=world&gwh=7743E8E852154BEED78995A043E10E46&gwt=pay&assetType=nyt_nowhttp://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-jeanclaude-duvalier-20141005-story.html Cuba da grandes pasos para la futura eliminación de la doble moneda. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1731981-cuba-da-grandes-pasos-para-la-futura-eliminacion-de-la-doble-moneda Violencia sacude el sur de México. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/americas/bodies-are-found-close-to-where-missing-students-clashed-with-police-in-mexico.html?ref=world&gwh=443131631DEE72A137747B8DBB507AF9&gwt=pay&assetType=nyt_nowhttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/04/actualidad/1412379709_680591.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29470025http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/mexico-massacre-victims-feared-be-missing-students-n218961http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/noticias/2014/10/141005_mexico_estudiantes_desaparecidos_fosas_que_se_sabe_jcps.shtmlhttp://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-hidden-graves-mexico-missing-students-20141005-story.html Venezuela enfrenta la escasez de medicamentos. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/venezuela-crisis-por-escasez-de-medicamentos/14636722 "Venezuela protege a los peores violadores de derechos humanos", afirmó el director para América de Human Rights Watch. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732383-jose-m-vivanco-venezuela-protege-a-los-peores-violadores-de-derechos-humanoshttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/entrevista-a-jose-miguel-vivanco/14636075 "The Economist" y "BBC" analizan la coyuntura económica argentina. Para más información:http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21621867-resignation-central-banks-governor-adds-gloom-thumbs-downhttp://www.bbc.com/news/business-29454152 Conmoción en Venezuela por el sangriento asesinato de un diputado chavista. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732747-el-chavismo-acuso-a-la-derecha-del-asesinato-del-diputado-serrahttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/gobierno-venezolano-acusa-al-paramilitarismo-por-muerte-de-diputado/14630599http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29486243 Más de 21 millones de peruanos votan en elecciones regionales y municipales. Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/ultimas_noticias/2014/10/141005_ultnot_peru_elecciones_regionales_msd.shtml Cae uno de los narcos más buscados en México. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1731983-mexico-cae-uno-de-los-narcos-mas-buscados Guatemala espera avances en el juicio por crímenes de guerra. Para más información:http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-guatemala-justice-20141004-story.html Juan Manuel Santos dijo que la paz en Colombia "está más cerca que nunca". Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1730249-juan-manuel-santos-dijo-que-la-paz-en-colombia-esta-mas-cerca-que-nunca ESTADOS UNIDOS / CANADÁ El dilema de Obama: cómo destruir al Estado Islámico sin fortalecer a Al-Assad. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1730812-el-dilema-de-obama-como-destruir-a-ei-sin-fortalecer-a-al-assad Canadá se sumó a la batalla contra el Estado Islámico. Para más información:http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/canada-joins-battle-against-isis-n217771http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29483160 Cuestionan el sistema de salud de Estados Unidos por la detección tardía del ébola. Para más información:http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-10/02/content_18691716.htmhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732937-ebola-funcionarios-de-salud-en-estados-unidos-no-registraron-nuevas-infecciones-pese-al-alto-numero-de-posibles-casoshttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/ee-uu-y-canada/casos-de-ebola-en-estados-unidos/14632739http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29493759 Avances en negociaciones de liberalización comercial entre Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea. Para más información:http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29482892 Estados Unidos envía 600 militares a luchar contra el ébola en África. Para más información:http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pentagon-sending-600-more-military-personnel-fight-ebola-africa-n217671 Renuncia la jefa del Servicio Secreto estadounidense por caso de intruso armado en la Casa Blanca. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1731925-eeuu-renuncia-la-jefa-del-servicio-secreto-por-un-intruso-armado-en-la-casa-blanca Estados Unidos levanta parcialmente embargo de venta de armas a Vietnam. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/eeuu-levanta-parcialmente-embargo-de-venta-de-armas-a-vietnam/14628855EUROPAEuropa vive la amenaza del Estado Islámico. Para más información:http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-islamic-state-henning-20141003-001-photo.htmlhttp://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2014/impreso/ei-decapita-a-britanico-amenaza-a-otro-rehen-88579.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/decapitacion-estado-islamico-cameron-usara-todos-los-recursos/14638455http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1730582-el-parlamento-britanico-aprueba-ataques-aereos-contra-el-estado-islamico-en-irakhttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/03/actualidad/1412368036_415379.htmlhttp://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2014/10/05/la-france-va-accentuer-le-rythme-de-ses-patrouilles-contre-l-etat-islamique_4500839_3210.htmlConsulta independentista catalana se hará el 9 de noviembre. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2014/10/05/referendum-sur-l-independance-les-catalans-veulent-rester-dans-la-legalite_4500783_3214.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29490846http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1730958-mas-desafia-a-rajoy-y-convoca-al-referendum-para-el-9-de-noviembrehttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1731441-la-justicia-fuerza-a-cataluna-a-resignarse-o-rebelarsehttp://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/03/inenglish/1412327174_332125.htmlhttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-10/05/content_18698691.htm Un suicida mata a cinco policías en un atentado en la capital chechena. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/05/actualidad/1412521983_410916.htmlhttp://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2014/mueren-4-policias-rusos-en-atentado-en-chechenia-1043597.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29498909 Turquía atacará a los yihadistas en Siria e Irak. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/04/opinion/turkey-must-save-the-kurds.html?ref=worldhttp://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-turkey-syria-military-20141002-story.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29490256http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/turquia-atacara-a-los-yihadistas-en-siria-e-irak/14628436http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21621872-emergence-another-kurdish-entity-its-borders-unsettles-government-how-dealhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/europe/turkish-leader-demands-biden-apology.html?ref=world&gwh=FAB30154F3D1CE0213EA73D034562AE4&gwt=pay&assetType=nyt_now "The Economist" analiza posible reforma económica en Europa. Para más información:http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21621785-leaders-france-and-italy-have-window-pursue-genuine-reforms-it-only-narrow Ucrania rompe la tregua y bombardea la ciudad de Donetsk. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/europe/in-ukraine-civilians-in-crossfire.html?ref=worldhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732175-ucrania-rompe-la-tregua-y-bombardea-la-ciudad-de-donetskhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29481979http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/ukraine-military-says-separatists-violated-month-old-ceasefire-n218681Masiva protesta contra la política familiar francesa. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/05/actualidad/1412525139_820929.html El ministro griego rechaza la necesidad de un nuevo pacto sobre la deuda de Grecia. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/03/actualidad/1412350301_977804.html Crecimiento económico abre puertas a Polonia. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/europe/poland-economy-european-union-russia-trade-sanctions.html?ref=world El ex primer ministro búlgaro, Boyko Borisov, tiene previsto regresar al poder. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2014/10/04/l-ex-premier-ministre-bulgare-boiko-borissov-s-apprete-a-revenir-au-pouvoir_4500537_3210.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29494877 Los tories proponen que el tribunal de Estrasburgo no rija sobre Londres. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/03/actualidad/1412345818_921344.html ASIA-PACÍFICO / MEDIO ORIENTE El Estado Islámico avanza. Para más información:http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21621863-are-american-led-air-strikes-creating-sunni-backlash-unintended-consequenceshttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-10/04/content_18697146.htmhttp://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2014/10/05/syrie-attentat-suicide-d-une-kurde-contre-l-etat-islamique_4500833_3218.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/nuevo-asesinato-por-parte-del-estado-islamico-decapito-a-britanico/14635195http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29498972http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2014/ejecutan-yihadistas-a-seis-soldados-iraquies-en-publico-1043589.htmlhttp://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/airstrikes-hit-more-isis-targets-syria-iraq-n218671http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/estado-islamico-avanca-na-siria-sob-bombardeios-da-coalizao-internacional-14148811#ixzz3FKKYJVKVhttp://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iraq-mosul-front-20141005-story.html Protestas estudiantiles en Hong Kong. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2014/10/05/manifestants-et-policiers-s-affrontent-a-nouveau-a-hongkong_4500718_3216.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2014/10/hong-kong-slideshowhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732978-de-la-mano-de-los-estudiantes-hong-kong-quiere-subirse-al-tren-de-la-democraciahttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/el-dialogo-en-hong-kong-se-complica-por-ataques-a-estudiantes-/14632475http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/05/actualidad/1412530002_202681.htmlhttp://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2014/10/05/manifestants-et-policiers-s-affrontent-a-nouveau-a-hongkong_4500718_3216.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29494885http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2014/manifestantes-retiraran-barricadas-en-hong-kong--1043561.htmlhttp://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-hong-kong-leaders-20141006-story.html#page=1http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hong-kong-protests/hong-kong-protesters-hold-huge-defiant-rally-n218551 Erupción del volcán Ontake en Japón. Para más información:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29472384http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1731915-los-dramaticos-esfuerzos-de-los-rescatistas-japoneses-que-luchan-contra-el-volcanhttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-10/01/content_18691389.htmhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29497179http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/typhoon-phanfone-churns-toward-tokyo-heavy-rain-n218616 Corea del Norte y Corea del Sur acuerdan un encuentro de alto nivel. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/asia/south-and-north-korea-agree-to-resume-high-level-talks.html?ref=world&gwh=7844F01D55ED73C9C4338C424BFBA191&gwt=pay&assetType=nyt_nowhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29489134http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/corea-del-norte-y-corea-del-sur-acuerdan-un-encuentro-de- alto-nivel-/14638375http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/04/actualidad/1412431980_377337.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29460743http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-north-south-korean-leaders-meet-20141004-story.html El presidente de Irán defendió al grupo Hezbollah implicado en el ataque a la AMIA. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1730674-el-presidente-de-iran-defendio-al-grupo-hezbollah-implicado-en-el-ataque-a-la-amia Irán no suplantará a Rusia como su principal proveedor de gas. Para más información:http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-10/04/content_18697127.htm Crece la tensión en el Golán. Para más información:http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-one-injured-israel-lebanon-border-20141005-story.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/in-golan-imagined-risks-become-all-too-real.html?ref=world China y su política para combatir polución. Para más información:http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/chi-la-fg-china-la-smog-policy-20140909-story.html#page=1 "The Economist" analiza cambio de escenario político en Indonesia. Para más información:http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21621874-old-guard-out-obstruct-next-presidents-ambitious-plans-reforms-empire-strikesÁFRICAÉbola: murieron más de 3000 personas en África occidental. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/africa/ebolas-cultural-casualty-hugs-in-hands-on-liberia.html?ref=worldhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/africa/nadie-en-liberia-conoce-a-un-infectado-de-ebola-que-no-haya-muerto/14629675http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1730905-ebola-murieron-mas-de-3000-personas-en-africa-occidentalhttp://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/outbreak-ebola-marburg-fever-kills-man-uganda-n218836http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-ebola-us-liberia-20141004-story.html#page=1http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29489394 Nuevas inversiones para el Canal de Suez. Para más información:http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/wave-patriotism-egypt-raises-9-billion-suez-canal-n214681 El líder de Boko Haram desmiente su muerte a través de un video. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1732111-el-lider-de-boko-haram-desmiente-su-muerte-a-traves-de-un-videohttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/10/03/videos/1412334089_482247.html Somalia: ejército toma el último gran puerto en poder de Al-Shabaab. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2014/10/05/somalie-l-armee-prend-le-dernier-grand-port-tenu-les-chabab_4500740_3212.htmlOTRAS"The Economsit" publica su informe: "Business this week".Para más información:http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21620281-business-weekA partir de ahora la ONU monitoreará para que no exista violencia contra gays y trans.Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1730632-a-partir-de-ahora-la-onu-monitoreara-para-que-no-exista-violencia-contra-gays-y-trans

Zusammenfassung Das in der westlichen Hälfte der Insel Neuguinea liegende Papua unterliegt einer raschen, unzureichend geplanten sozialen und ökonomischen Entwicklung. Zunehmende Umweltzerstörung (Habitatdegradierung) bedroht den hohen Artenreichtum und die einheimische Biodiversität. Süßwasserökosysteme sind sehr stark bedroht durch Umweltverschmutzung, Habitatsveränderung und das Einschleppen von fremden Arten. Bisher wurde dieser menschliche Einfluss an den Süßwasserarten unzureichend erforscht, speziell an den Fischen in stehenden und fliessenden Gewässern in Papua. Der Sentani See liegt in Nordpapua, in der Nähe von Jayapura, der Hauptstadt der Provinz Papua. Es repräsentiert das größte Süßwasserökosystem in Papua und spielt somit eine wichtige Rolle für das Überleben der Menschen und anderer Lebewesen in dieser Gegend. Menschliche Aktivitäten beeinflussen die lokale Flora und Fauna, insbesondere solche mit engem Verbreitungsgebieten wie z.B. Regenbogenfische Chilatherinasentaniensis und Glossolepisincisus, und der Sentani Goby. (Glossogobius sp.) Der See liegt nahe an urbanen Zentren, sodass in allen Himmelsrichtungen Umweltverschmutzungen aller Art stattfinden., dies betrifft insbesondere Veränderungen im Uferbereich und das Einschleppen fremder Arten. Trotz dieser Bedenken und der Bedeutung für die lokale Regierung findet das Thema kaum Beachtung im Hinblick auf Erhalt des Ökosystems. Trotz einiger Forschung in Richtung Mollusken, Phytoplankton und Limnologie, und Wasserqualität des Sees gibt es keine spezifischen Untersuchungen über die Korrelation zwischen menschlichen Aktivitäten und der Artenveränderung im See. Deshalb ist das Ziel dieser Arbeit die Ökologie des roten Regenbogenfisches als einem der meistbedrohten endemischen Fischarten im Sentanisee sowie den menschlichen Einfluss auf sein Habitat zu dokumentieren. Im Speziellen beschreibt diese Arbeit den Einfluss auf die Häufigkeit, Größe, Geschlechterverteilung und Populationsveränderung nach Einführung fremder Arten. Um den menschlichen Faktor zu messen, wurden acht physiochemische Parameter untersucht, von denen der größte Einfluss auf die Häufigkeit des Vorkommens beschrieben wird in neun verschiedenen Gegenden dreier verschiedener Zonen. Die Gegenden wurden nach Kriterien unterschiedlicher menschlicher Aktivität ausgesucht unter der Hypothese, dass eine höhere menschlicher Population einen entsprechenden Einfluss auf die Fischpopulation hat. Zone I beschreibt hohen menschlichen Einfluss, Zone II mittelmäßige menschliche Aktivität, Zone III hat die niedrigste menschliche Aktivität und wurde als "Kontrollgegend" genutzt. Diese Gegenden wurden später neu eingeteilt gemäß der physiochemischen Parameter des Wassers. Fisch und Wasserproben wurden entlang des Ufers gesammelt, in bis zu zwei Meter Tiefe. Fisch wurde morgens in jeder Zone gefangen. Dies wurde dreimal an anderen Tagen wiederholt, sodass 27 verschieden Daten für jede Zone zusammenkamen, insgesamt 81 Daten für drei Zonen innerhalb eines Jahres, und somit 243 Daten in drei Jahren. Die gesammelten Regenbogenfische wurden nach Geschlecht gezählt, gemessen und wieder freigelassen. Wasserproben wurden nach dem gleichen Muster entnommen, dreimal täglich; morgens (6.00 – 9.00am), mittags (11.00 bis 13.00pm) und nachmittags (16.00 – 18.00pm) und dreimal in jeder Zone an drei weiteren Tagen gesammelt. So wurden ebenfalls 81 Wasserproben gewonnen. Die Wasserparameter, Nitrate, Nitrite, Phosphate, der biologische Sauerstoffbedarf und der chemische Sauerstoffbedarf wurden in einem Labor analysiert, während Wassertemperatur, PH Wert und gelöster Sauerstoff direkt vor Ort gemessen wurden. Dann wurde das Umfeld des Regenbogenfisches beschreibend analysiert, um die Habitatpräferenzen einschliesslich Substrat, Typ, Wassertiefe, Wasserbewegung und Vegetation kennezulernen. Um die physiochemischen Parameter des Wassers zu analysieren, wurde das RStatistikanalyse Programm benutzt., um somit Verbreitung und Größe des Regenbogenfisches in jeder Probe, und somit eine Korrelation zwischen den Wasserparametern und der Größe und Verteilung des Regenbogenfisches zu entdecken. Nachdem der Grad der Wasserverschmutzung bestimmt worden war, wurden die Fischproben in drei Gruppen eingeteilt, je nach Verschmutzungsgrad der Gebiete. Das Analysetool in Excel 2007 und die Version von SPSS 17.0 wurden genutzt, um die Fischgröße jeder Gruppe, sowie den Unterscheid der Gruppen zueinander, das Verhältnis der Anzahl der Fische zur Zahl der eingeführten fremden Fische, sowie die Korrelation der Zahl der Regenbogenfische zur Nitratkonzentration zu bestimmen. Basierend auf den bereits erwähnten Wasserparametern wurden die Untersuchungsgebiete in drei Gruppen geteilt. 1 und 2 mit hohem menschlichen Einfluss, 3 mit geringem menschlichem Impact. Es gab signifikante Unterschiede bei bestimmten Wasserparametern innerhalb der Gruppen, insbesondere bei Nitraten und Nitriten, Phosphate, biologischem Sauerstoffbedarf und chemischen Sauerstoffbedarf. Die erste Gruppe hatte die höchste Konzentration an Nitraten und Nitriten, Gruppe II hatte die höchste Konzentration an Phosphaten, biologischem, sowie chemischen Sauerstoffbedarf . Gruppe drei hatte die beste Wasserqualität und niedere bis mittlere Konzentration der obengenannten Parameter. Die Phosphatlevel übersteigen den in Indonesien staatlich zugelassenen Grenzwert von Phosphat in Trinkwasser und Fischereiwasser. Nitrat und Nitritbelastung liegen unter den zulässigen Grenzwerten. Es wurde kein Bereich ohne nachweisbaren menschlichen Einfluss gefunden, nicht mal bei so geringer Bev.dichte wie 2Menschen /km2; Diese Ergebnisse zeigen die deutliche Verschmutzung des Sentani Sees durch die Menschen. Die Anzahl des roten Regenbogenfisches war in allen Gruppen gleich, ausser es wurde nach Geschlecht getrennt gezählt. Die männlichen Fische war in allen Gruppen ähnlich, während die Anzahl weinblichen Fische in der Gruppe drei niedriger war. Nitrat war der einzige Parameter, dem ein direkter inverser Zusammenhang mit der Anzahl der Regenbogenfische nachgewiesen werden konnte. Die Körperlänge der Fische war signifikant unterschiedlich in den einzelnen Gruppen. Gruppe drei hatte das durchschnittlich größte Körpermass. Phosphat war der einzige Parameter mit Einfluss auf die Körperlänge, obwohl nicht signifikant. Die Anzahl der Fremdfische korrelierte schwach mit der Anzahl der Regenbogenfische. Gruppe zwei hatte eine leicht negative Korrelation, Gruppe eins und drei waren leicht positiv korreliert. Das bedeutet, dass die Anzahl der Fremdfische keinen Einfluss auf die Zahl der Regenbogenfische hat. Die Zahl der männliche Regenbogenfische war in der Flachwasserzone am Ufer höher, während die weiblichen mehr in den tiefen Wassern gefunden wurden. Diese Korrelation war ähnlich in Gruppe eins und zwei, während in der dritten weniger verschmutzten Gruppe eine höhere Anzahl männlicher Fische war. Die unterschiedliche Geschlechterverteilung war abhängig von Habitat, Licht und Temperaturpräferenzen. Grundsätzlich bevorzugen rote Regenbogenfische klares, flaches Wasser mit Sand, Kiesel und Steinsubstrat und halten sich gerne auf zwischen Hydrilla verticillata, Valisneria americana, Eichhornia crassipes, Metroxylon sagu und Gräsern. Das Angebot von Futter war ebenfalls attraktiv für die Fische, insbesondere unter traditionellen Pfahlhäusern, den Wurzeln einiger Pflanzen, Schmutz, Abfall und Holzresten. Pollen und Insekten waren ebenfalls eine bedeutende Nahrungsquelle für die Fische, sowie auch die Larven von Wasserinsekten und Algen. Pflanzwurzeln waren ebenfalls als Rückzugs- und Aufzuchtsgebiet sowie als Spielplatz attraktiv für die Fische. Die Fische vermieden Bereiche mit hohen Lichtintensitäten und zogen schattige Gebiete in tiefem Wasser vor. Diese Faktoren beeinflussten die Verbreitung der Regenbogenfische in den Habitaten und konsequenterweise auch ihre Anzahl. Menschliche Aktivitäten haben Einfluss auf die Qualität des Habitats und des Wassers in und um den Sentanisee. Obwohl die Wasserqualität keinen signifikanten Einfluss auf die Verbreitung der Regenbogenfische hat, dank seiner Fähigkeit, sich auch an schlechtere Konditionen anzupassen, wird eine zunehmende Verschmutzung doch als Bedrohung gewertet. Zunehmende Verschmutzung des Wassers wird sich in einer Verschlechterung des Ökosystems zeigen und wird dazu führen, dass die Arten um geringere Ressourcen konkurrieren müssen. Das wird ultimativ zum Aussterben von endemischen Arten führen, von denen der rote Regenbogenfisch nur ein Vertreter ist. Deshalb sollte der Sentani See prioriär als Naturschutzgebiet in Papua behandelt werden, um einheimische und endemische Arten zu schützen. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie liefern Grundlagen Daten für den Schutz des roten Regenbogenfisches im Sentani See. Somit erhalten Politiker Strategien zum Erhalt des Habitats, Möglichkeiten Verschmutzung einzudämmen, und Kommunen zum Naturschutz zu motivieren. Weitere Studien werden benötigt, um das Verhältnis des roten Regenbogenfisches und seine Vorlieben, sowie seine Anfälligkeiten bestimmten Noxen gegenüber zu erforschen. Verschiedene Möglichkeiten der Kontrolle der Verschmutzung sollten ebenfalls erforscht werden. Andere Regionen des Sees, die in dieser Studie nicht erforscht werden konnten, sollten überwacht werden. Unabhängig von den bearbeiteten Untersuchungen am Ökosystem des "Sentani Sees" als Teil eines ganzheitlichen "Sentani See Programms" sollten weitere Studien zur Wasserqualität und insbesondere zum Einfluß anthropogener Umweltverschmutzung auf Flora und Fauna angestellt werden. Eine Überwachung des gesamten Sees zur Bestimmung der Ökologie wäre sinnvoll, damit ein Gesamtprogramm zur ökologischen Rehabilitation folgen kann. ; Summary Located in the western half of New Guinea, Papua is facing rapid and poorly-planned social and economic development, increasing habitat degradation and threatening its high level of species richness and endemicity. Freshwater ecosystems, more than any other biotope in Papua, face the worst consequences from human development through sedimentation, habitat alteration, pollution, and the introduction of exotic species. However, little research has been conducted on the impact of human activities on aquatic species, and specifically fish in lentic and lotic ecosystems, in Papua. Lake Sentani is located in northern Papua, near Jayapura, the capital of Papua Province. It is the largest lowland lake in Papua, and plays a critical role in the survival of the humans and organisms living in and around it. Human activities are negatively affecting its local flora and fauna, especially those with very narrow distributions, such as the rainbowfishes, Chilatherina sentaniensis and Glossolepis incisus, and the Sentani Goby (Glossogobius sp.). The lake is located close to an urban center and heavy development occurs in the north, east, and northeast, while other threats include non-point pollution of human activities, habitat alteration along the shoreline, and introduced species. Despite these concerns, and its proximity to the local government, the lake has received no attention in terms conserving its ecosystem. Moreover, although there is some research on the mollusks, phytoplankton, limnological aspects, and water quality of the lake, none exists specifically on the correlation between human activities and the lake's inhabitants. Therefore, the aim of this study was to document the ecology of the Red Rainbowfish (Glossolepis incisus), one of the threatened endemic fishes in Lake Sentani, and the impact of human activities on its habitats. Specifically, this study was designed to focus on the impact of human activities on the abundance of the Red Rainbowfish, its body length, and sex ratio, and the abundance of introduced fishes and correlation between their abundance and Red Rainbowfish abundance. Assessing the impact of human activities was done by measuring eight water physicochemical parameters that were reported to have the most potential influence on the abundance of the Red Rainbowfish, in nine locations from three zones. The zones were predetermined based on visual assessments of the level of human activities, where higher numbers of people were assumed to have higher impacts on the environment. Zone I's locations had heavy human activity, Zone II's locations had medium human activity, and Zone III's locations had the lowest human activity and was considered a "control area". These zones' locations were later regrouped following analyses of the water physicochemical parameters. Fish and water samples were collected along the shoreline, at depths of up to two meters. Fish were sampled in the morning at each sampling site of a single location, and replicated three times on alternate days, yielding 27 data sets for each zone, or 81 data sets for all three zones within a year, and a total 243 data sets in three years. Collected rainbowfish were differentiated by sex, counted, measured, and released. Water parameters were measured in the same sites in which fish sampling was conducted, three times a day—morning (06.00–09.00 am), midday (11.00 am–13.00 pm), and afternoon (16.00–18.00 pm)—and repeated three times in each sampling site on three alternate days. Thus, a total of 81 water parameter data sets were collected. Water parameters, including nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, biological oxygen demand, and chemical oxygen demand were analyzed in a laboratory, while water temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen were directly measured in the field. Then, the ecology of the rainbowfish was descriptively analyzed to assess the preferred habitat of the fish, including substrate type, water depth, turbidity, and vegetation. The R statistical analysis program was used to analyze the water physicochemical parameters in order to determine the level of pollution in the water, abundance of Red Rainbowfish in each sampling group, and correlation between water physicochemical parameters and Red Rainbowfish abundance and body size. After the level of water pollution was determined, fish samples were arranged into three groups based on the level of pollution in their location. The Analysis Toolpak in Microsoft Excel 2007, and SPSS version 17.0 were used to calculate Red Rainbowfish body length for each group, as well as the difference between groups, correlation between Red Rainbowfish abundance and introduced fish abundance, and Red Rainbowfish abundance and nitrate concentration. Based on the aforementioned water physicochemical parameters, the sampling sites were distinguished into three groups: Groups 1 and 2 indicated heavy pollution (human impact) and Group 3 indicated low pollution (human impact) with fairly good water quality. There were significant differences in certain physicochemical parameters between groups, specifically in nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, BOD, and COD. Group 1 had the highest concentrations of nitrate and nitrite, while Group 2 had the highest concentrations of phosphate, BOD and COD. Group 3 had the best water quality of the three groups, with low to medium concentrations of each parameter. Phosphate levels in all three groups exceeded the Indonesian government's phosphate limit in drinking water and fisheries, with BOD and COD. Nitrate and nitrite were both still within the limit. No area with zero human impact was found, even in sites with a population as low as two people. These results indicate that Lake Sentani already suffers from a high level of organic matter, which enters the lake as the result of human activities around it. Red Rainbowfish abundance was not different between groups, except when fish were counted based on their sex. Male abundance remained similar across groups, whereas female abundance was similar in Groups 1 and 2, but much lower in Group 3. Nitrate was the only water parameter significantly correlating negatively with Red Rainbowfish abundance, suggesting that increased nitrate levels had an effect in decreasing fish abundance in Lake Sentani, although the impact was still low. Red Rainbowfish body length was significantly different between groups, with Group 3 having the longest mean body length. Phosphate was the only parameter found to contribute to Red Rainbowfish body length, albeit non-significantly. Introduced fish abundance correlated weakly with Red Rainbowfish abundance. While Group 2 showed a weak negative correlation, Group 1 and Group 3 revealed a weak positive correlation, suggesting that, whether positive or negative, introduced fish species had a very low influence on the abundance of the Red Rainbowfish. Male Red Rainbowfish were more abundant than females in the shallow waters along the shoreline, the latter being found more commonly in deeper waters. This ratio was similar in Groups 1 and 2, whereas Group 3, whose habitats were the least polluted, had a higher ratio of males. The disparity in sex ratio was possibly caused by their different habitat preferences, as well as light and temperature preferences. The overall habitat preference of the Red Rainbowfish was clear, shallow water, sand, gravel, and cobble substrate, and shoaling amidst Hydrilla verticillata, Valisneria americana, Eichhornia crassipes, Metroxylon sagu, and grasses. The availability of food also attracted fish to certain areas, such as under traditional stilt houses, roots of some plants, litter, and wood debris. The pollen of terrestrial plants, as well as terrestrial insects, also served as a food source for the fish, along with the larvae of aquatic insects and algae. Roots of plants were also important for refuge, and as nursery and playing grounds. Moreover, the fish avoided high light intensities by moving to shaded areas or deeper water. These factors influenced the Red Rainbowfish's distribution and habitat selection, and consequently, its abundance. Human activities in and around Lake Sentani have impacted the quality of its habitats and water. Although water quality did not have a significant influence on the Red Rainbowfish, owing to its ability to adapt to changes in water quality, changes to its habitat will have a significant impact on its ability to survive in Lake Sentani. The outcome of the present rate of pollution of its water will be further and more serious deterioration of its ecosystem, force its inhabitants to compete for increasingly fewer resources, and ultimately result in the extinction of its endemic species, of which the Red Rainbowfish is just one example. Therefore, Lake Sentani should be made a priority in Papuan conservation and management efforts, especially for native and endemic species. The results of this study provide baseline data for Red Rainbowfish conservation in Lake Sentani, and will allow policy-makers to pursue the protection of its habitats, create a strategy to control pollutants, and encourage community-based environmental management. Further research is needed on the correlation between the Red Rainbowfish and its preferences, and its susceptibility to certain types and concentrations of pollutants. Different strategies of pollution control should also be investigated. Other parts of Lake Sentani that were beyond the scope of this research should also be surveyed, along with a lake-wide program examining the exact condition of Lake Sentani's ecosystem, whether it be the quality of its water or the response of its flora and fauna to ongoing anthropogenic disturbance, after which a more comprehensive rehabilitation program may follow.

IntroductionRapidly-growing enterprises (RGEs) can play a crucial role in emerging economies with lasting impact on their economic growth. This type of enterprises must manage the change to remain both competitive and flexible in order to survive. Similarly, the emerging economies are characterized by rapid structural change in their socio-economic institutions and traditional practices for gaining competitiveness to face the competitive pressures of the increasing globalized economy. In general, SMEs have the requisite flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances, to become a vehicle for enhancing competitiveness by upgrading their capabilities in a country, and thus become major contributors to economic growth. The added feature of RGEs is that they grow faster and achieve higher growth while facing more constrained resources than their SME counterparts. We posit that emerging economies face similar barriers and challenges and RGEs can provide valuable lessons for more effective management. Change in emerging economies is inevitable and will manifest itself at the firm, industry and institutional levels. Regardless of the original source, the instability resulting from rapid change need to be managed with a view to long term growth. For a firm to succeed in a dynamic emerging market, the lessons from other firms managing in dynamic emerging industries can be highly instructive. Emerging industries are characterized by a rapid change in terms of the definition of industry, member firms' production function, relation with buyers, suppliers and competitors. This dynamism is in part due to evolutionary changes in technology, knowledge and also is an inevitable outcome of specialization, which allows for faster growth; but results in higher interdependence of firms internationally. Emerging economies will inevitably compete with the members of those new industries; and therefore it may be efficient to learn from the players that are creating and shaping the new competitive structure. RGEs contribute to enhancing technical progress by increasing the rate of invention and innovation, and the speed with which new technology is disseminated and adopted by other firms. Globalization has forced countries to interlink their economies (Armijo, 2008), increasing their interdependence and thus forcing them to react to, and respond to change, accordingly (Hoekman and Porto, 2010). Therefore, emerging economies are facing similar situations to those of RGEs: a changing reality resulting from technological advances and shifts in macroeconomic policies due to internal and external factors such as the dynamics of WTO, Trading Blocs, among others. Given the present need of emerging markets to raise their competitive levels, RGEs are highly-suitable models from which to learn how to cope with and take advantage of the new emerging environments. In this paper we describe RGEs ´characteristics in order to learn about the crucial tasks of managing the complexity of rapid change due to the emergence change. We also explore how the emerging economies can bridge, and even close, the gap with the industrialized economies and whether or not the rapidly-growing enterprises may play an important role. The Characteristics of the Emerging Economies Emerging economies are a group of countries that play an increasingly important role in the global economy. The term "emerging economies" was originally coined by the IFC to describe a fairly narrow list of middle-to-higher income economies as a subset of developing countries. According to Hoskisson, Eden, Lau, and Wright (2000), "emerging economies" are those newly industrializing countries that have adopted market-based policies. Khanna and Palepu (1997: 42) suggest that in defining emerging economies, "the most important criterion is how well an economy helps buyers and sellers come together." They point out that the lack of proper institutions—relative to developed countries—make emerging markets more inefficient and incomplete, whereby information problems, misguided regulation, and inefficient judicial systems hamper communication between buyers and sellers. Bureaucratic judiciary systems, for example, make registration processes lengthier and costlier than in developed economies with a negative impact on transparency and providing fertile ground for favoritism and corruption. Labor markets are frequently highly regulated imposing additional costs on SMEs making them less flexible than otherwise (see Table 1). Table 1: FIRM-SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Output marketInput marketLow competitiveness Limited international experienceLiberalization policiesGlobalization Asymmetric access to information & to technologyLimited access to local and international capital marketsPoor dissemination of information related to international marketsLabor marketManagerial constrainsOwnership structureLack of managerial expertiseLack of consulting servicesLack of administrative structureSocial ties between senior managersFamily-owned business Sources: Adopted from Hoskisson et al. (2000), Khanna and Palepu (1997) and Mody (2004)The institutional aspects of the emerging economies Mody (2004) proposes another definition that emphasizes a) a high degree of volatility due to the transitional nature of their economic, political, social, and demographic conditions, b) the inherent trade-offs between flexibility in policy commitments, and c) the transition from transaction-specific to institutional commitments. The idea of a transition from transaction-specific to institutional commitments is appealing in view of the fact that such institutions must also subsume the socio-cultural dimension of the problem. According to North (2005), economic performance depends on institutional heritage, economic rules and, how those rules are devised and enforced, and the specific institutional constraints of each market. In order to reduce rent-seeking, free-riding and morally hazardous behaviors, it is desirable to evolve from a transaction-specifics situation to a rule-based situation, whereby the agents involved in the situation are not relevant to, or cannot influence, the due-process. Having strong and clearly-defined institutions that enhance the performance of firms is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition to guaranty economic growth. Clague (1996) finds that the characteristics and stability of political regimes have an impact on economic institutions. Similarly, Mauro (1995) argues that bureaucratic and institutional efficiencies are positively correlated with political stability and that poor countries tend to have cumbersome bureaucracy and inefficient institutions. Not only the rules need to be adequate for the circumstances, but also they must be enforced. As North (1990: 107) points out, institutions "are the underlying determinant of the long-run performance of economies". The greater the transparency in terms of information and access to efficient judiciary systems the lowers transaction cost of engaging in productive activities. Artificial national asymmetries and deficiencies, for example, limited governmental support and/or biases in favor of large companies that lobby the government, creates barriers for smaller firms to access to key resources, hence, hindering their competitiveness Characteristics of Rapidly-Growing Enterprises Delmar, Davidson, and Gartner, (2003), Ala-Mutka and Etemad (2006), Fischer and Reuber (2003), Birch, Haggerty, and Parsons (1993) and Keen and Etemad (2011 and 2012) have identified a very interesting group of companies called Gazelles or, in this paper, RGEs. These companies are characterized as smaller firms experiencing explosive growth for a sustained period of time. There are not industry-specific and are found in many industries, ranging from shoes manufacturing, construction to knowledge-intensive and pharmaceutical development. Their main common characteristic is fast growth in revenues, number of employees and revenue per employee. Naturally, this rapid growth in employment and revenues are the consequents of their expansion and further penetration in local and international markets. Most of them internationalize rapidly as well by climbing over international entry barriers effectively. These aspects should be of particular interest to developing economies because of their impact at least in three ways: i) Primary and direct impact. Not only do they generate employment and incremental income but they also increase the total production of goods and service, as well as wealth, in a much shorter period of time than other enterprises. ii) Secondary impact by providing a model to learn from and emulate their action -- the spill-over effects of their success to the rest of the economy would further contributing to the well-being of their region and possibly beyond, otherwise absent (i.e., when normally growing firms are inspired, learn from and emulate local RGEs) iii) Benchmarks for best practices and world-class competitiveness. By aiming to succeed in international markets from the very beginning, these companies need to set their strategic horizons very high adopting the best managerial practices and strategies to achieve the competitive that would enable them to compete internationally at the outset. They tend to select partners, whether suppliers or buyers, that share the same working philosophy and follow similar strategies to complement them. They function collaboratively and interdependently mainly as members of networks as opposed to operating independently. RGEs are in many cases the fundamental core of potential industrial clusters that radiate their momentum to the rest of the economy. They may or may not be a part of a regional industrial cluster; but they actively manage a smaller cluster of their own value net: i.e., an efficient network of buyers and suppliers involved in the both the supply and value chains that collectively generate higher value than their counterparts. This paper will return to the topic or RGEs in the next section. It will present and briefly analyze RGEs in order to examine their main patterns of strategic operations and rapid growth for adoption by the emerging economies to speed-out the transformation of their economic growth and developments. Discussion This discussion builds on the arguments presented earlier and explores the possibility of emerging economies learning from, and emulating, RGES in the developed economies to shorten the time and the path of transformation. In so doing, five broad influential topics will assist in examining different aspect of this examination, as follows. The Need for Re-evaluation and Re-configuration of Advantages In changing environments, property-based assets lose their potency relatively faster than elsewhere. As Miller and Shamsie (1996: 522) observe ¨most competitors will be aware of the value of a rival's property-based resources, and they may even have the knowledge to duplicate these resources¨. However, the knowledge-based resources, more likely to have a higher potentials for generating competitive advantages and growth. Furthermore, the firm has more effective control over the creation and deployment of knowledge–based assets than those of property-based assets. As mentioned earlier, in dynamic environments, firms are forced to gain productivity and meet world-class standards to keep pace with others. A key suggestion of this paper, based on the experience of RGEs, is that without learning and knowledge acquisition to give rise to knowledge-based assets, capabilities and competitiveness, the probability of closing the technological gap and reducing the income inequality will simply not be feasible. Technological gap can be viewed primarily as knowledge gap combined with the lack of process know-how to exploit the technology in a timely manner. Income inequality is in part due to comparatively inefficient of firm operation characterized by their growth rates. In to the case of property-based resources, where competitor may develop the knowledge of how to replicate such resources and thus reduce the competitors' advantage, the traditional barriers (such as legal constraint or historical endowments) did not allow firms to acquire those resources easily. As discussed earlier, those barriers are eroding rapidly. In contrast, knowledge-based resources cannot be easily imitated by firms that do not already posses the requisite know-how. It would be difficult, costly or risky to replicate and time may not favour imitators. As Miller and Shamsie (1996: 522) argue, "knowledge-based resources allow organizations to succeed, not by market control or precluding competition, but by giving firms the skills to adapt their products to market needs and to deal with competitive challenges". Firms in emerging economies will have to learn how to adapt and to respond to international market needs relatively fast to reduce the risk of falling further behind. The relatively static characteristics of the closed-economies, firms were not forced to possess the requisite capabilities to deal with complex situations. Aspiring firms will have to develop collaborative skills to develop and share knowledge to devise new routines and processes to deal with increasing more complex situations. Therefore, the transitional period can be characterized by an ongoing process of unlearning the old routines and the learning the new ones, mainly from more progressive firms such RGEs in order to cope with the new requirements of increasingly more sophisticated demand conditions and tougher competition. The Need for Change in Managers Mindset and the Firm's Out Look. On the one hand, there is a need to understand the implications of the changes in order to develop potentially different courses of action available and how they affect the industry and business practices. On the other hand, according to Weick (1995), the strategic decisions of managers depend on their cognitive structures and how they make sense of the environment. Enterprises need to understand any pending or intended change in a way that "makes sense" to them, fits into some of their interpretative scheme or system of meaning (Bartunek, 1984; Ranson, Hinings, and Greenwood, 1980). When firms face a different environment, such as new international competition, new suppliers and customers, there is a need for a thorough revision because previous symbols, values, and historical attributes may no longer be relevant to the organization that faces the new reality. It is likely that there will be irreconcilable inconsistencies between key labels used in the organization and the key concepts needed for comprehending and dealing with the new reality. The awareness of alternative actions is the key to proper action "in regard to the changes occurring in the data of the markets" (Mises, 1949: 255). Past actions, thinking and experiences that were concretized in norms, standards procedures, and job specifications of the near past need to be revised and in some cases unlearned because they do not reflect the emerging reality anymore. In the entrepreneurial literature, the entrepreneur is the person who has the ability to make the transition possible, to develop new ideas and to set the strategic directions. Firms need to be alert (Kirzner, 1973) to the signal from the markets. The alertness of managers to take advantage of new opportunities and to meet changing market conditions through discovery may be considerably reduced if firms do not change their dominant logic (Prahalad and Bettis, 1986) in order to develop novel strategies. Firms that conducted business for years in a closed economy without much pressure to innovate and to reduce costs, face insurmountable pressures to reinvent themselves. They cannot remain indifferent because their customers will be more demanding, their supply sources will be evolving as well as the competition becoming less forgiving. (continuará en la próxima edición de Letras Internacionales)*Dr. Christian Keen, Coordinador Académico de Finanzas FACS, Universidad ORT Uruguay

La búsqueda de la comprensión -o incluso una suerte de predicción- del comportamiento internacional de las grandes potencias ha sido uno de los leit motif de la disciplina de las relaciones internacionales. En general, dos grandes cortes analíticos han predominado. Por un lado, el enfoque estructural –es decir, el estudio de la política entre estados desde el sistema internacional hacia las propias unidades estatales (Kenneth Waltz es el locus classicus). La alternativa han sido los análisis que parten de la unidad para entender la política internacional –i.e. que privilegian el estudio de lo doméstico. No debería hacer falta senalar que dicho corte es en buena medida ficticio. Una convención acadeñmica que puede sobrevivir únicamente en el abstracto mundo de la teoría y que es aceptada como tal incluso por aquellos que más enfáticamente propugnan por la separación de los estructural y lo doméstico. (1)Una comprensión acabada de la política internacional debe nutrirse siempre de imputs estructurales y domésticos. "Descifrar" la conducta china se ha impuesto como uno de los grandes desafíos para la disciplina. Ante la re-confirmación diaria de la tangibilidad del ascenso chino, lo que Beijing "haga" en la escena internacional ha pasado a ser un tema de primer interés -o preocupación- para resto del mundo. Esto con especial énfasis a partir de los complejos 2009 y 2010 –donde el resto del sistema ha tenido que lidiar con una China mucho más audaz (agresiva para aquellos menos procupados por lo políticamente correcto). La pregunta "¿Cómo será la conducta internacional China?" debe, sin embargo, estar acompañada por un "¿Cuáles son las ideas fuerza que guian la política exterior china?" –i.e. parte la pata doméstica del análisis. A ordenar el campo de donde buscar una respuesta para la última interrogante es que se ha dispuesto David Shambaugh, profesor de la George Washington University, y uno de los más reconocidos sinólogos, en unreciente artículo publicado en The Washington Quarterly. Shambaugh es un experiente practicante del arte –muchas veces bruta y abusivamente utilizado- de poner rótulos simplificadores a los fenómenos sociales para facilitar su comprensión. En este caso, el objeto de simplificación son las escuelas de pensamiento de política exterior dentro de China. Una tarea compleja pero necesaria, especialmente si se tiene en cuenta, como señala Shambaugh, que: "no nation has had such an extensive, animated, and diverse domestic discourse about its roles as a major rising power as China has during the past decade (p. 8)." Siete escuelas o "tendencias de análisis" son demarcadas por el autor. El espectro corre de la más aislacionista y agresiva (nativismo) al cosmopolitanismo más kantiano (globalismo).NativismoRealismoGrandes PoderesAsia PrimeroSur GlobalMultilateralismo SelectivoGlobalismoNativismo La tendencia nativista, como la define Shambaugh, es una colección -inevitablemente heterogénea- de populistas, nacionalistas xenofóbicos y marxistas (p. 10). Es en buena medida el resabio en formol del pensamiento maoísta más duro (aliado de lo que en el debate de política doméstica se conoce como "la Nueva Izquierda", enemiga principal de las reformas económicas iniciadas en la década de 1980), (2) adozado de las nuevas tendencias hyper-nacionalistas típicas de una potencia en ascenso – exacervadas en una potencia que entiende su pasado pre-comunista como "los 100 años de humillación a manos de Occidente." No es raro entonces que el nativismo se exprese por medio de una fuerte desconfianza hacia Occidente –en el caso de los Estados Unidos, directamente un fuerte anti-americanismo. Desconfianza que se traduce en una obsesión con la idea de "evolución pacífica," es decir, la noción de que haber entrado en el mundo liberal-occidental (aunque sólo sea económicamente) favorece los conspirativos esquemas de Estados Unidos de derrocar al partido comunista chino pacífica y casi imperceptiblemente. Pervive tambien aquí un dejo de teoría leninista del imperialismo 2.0, donde la globalización representa la expansión del capital como la veía Lenin (algo desgraciadamente nada extraño en el discurso internacional latinoamericano). Realismo La corriente realista es fácil de comprender para alguien ligeramente conocedor de las ideas centrales de la teoría internacional Occidente. La primacía del Estado, la anarquía como principio ordenador del sistema y su consecuente imposición de la auto-ayuda como ¨norma¨de conducta para los estados, son las bases de esta escuela –en general mucho más homogénea que el resto. Logicamente, la seguridad nacional es aquí un concepto clave. Esta tendencia es la que domina el discurso chino de política exterior. Particularmente predominante es dentro del ejército chino, pero también se extende al mundo académico -Zhang Ruizhuang, profesor de la Universidad Nankai y, no casualmente, exestudiante de Kenneth N. Waltz en la Universidad de California-Berkeley, representa a esta escuela cuando argumenta: "…the US has been damaging China's interests for a long time. China should be dissatisfied, not satisfied, with the state of US-China relations. It is not a relationship in good condition. If China does not oppose the United States, the US will abuse China's interest and China will become America's puppet." (13) Grandes PoderesPara esta escuela la diplomacia china debería estar primariamente enfocada en las grandes potencias. El traspaso de tecnología de potencias más avanzadas en este aspecto como Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea aparece como una prioridad. Por otra parte, la relación con Rusia en torno a cuestiones energéticas también debería estar en la tapa de la agenda. En términos de seguridad, mantener una relación armoniosa con Estados Unidos es la clave. La tendencia de los grandes poderes fue preponderante durante el mandato de Jiang Zemin (con su política de "Primero Estados Unidos"), y tiene un retrogusto al pensamiento de Deng Xiaoping. Sin embargo, es cada vez menos coherente con una potencia que va consolidando su ascenso y ve un constante incremento en su potencial para actuar en el globo – la expansión en Africa y la conducta hacia su periferia en los años 2009 y 2010 son testigos de esto. Asia PrimeroA diferencia de la anterior, la tendencia de análisis que Shambaugh denomina "Asia Primero" propugna por una concentración de esfuerzos en la vecindad. (3) Hay un foco en la construcción de una identidad asiática –y aquí existe un fuerte vínculo con la escuela constructivista en el pensamiento de teoría de RR.II.- como fuente de estabilización de la región y como remedio a los temores y reacciones de los países de Asia ante el ascenso chino. Esta escuela tuvo un fuerte impulso en el período de la post-crisis financiera asiática de 1997. Sin embargo, la expansión de los intereses chinos en el mundo amenaza con dejar un tanto obsoleta su influencia, o al menos anular la posibilidad de su preeminencia en el debate. Sur GlobalLa idea que China es todavía un país en desarrollo sigue muy presente en el imaginario chino -particularmente de su elite política . La escuela del Sur Global, adoptando esta premisa, propone poner el foco en sus pares –por pares se entiende una suerte Tercer Mundo. Aquí, las relaciones con América Latina, Africa, y por cierto Asia, son centrales. Quienes se posicionan dentro de esta tendencia abogan por actuar internacionalmente en torno a esquemas como los BRIC, G-20, instancias multilateriales asiáticas, etc. Se mantienen varios de los preceptos de "Asia Primero," pero expandéndolos a todo el "sur" del globo. Cabe señalar que, como no podía ser de otra manera, la línea de trabajo de éstos pensadores ha tendido a problematizar la concepción demasiado facilista de un "Tercer Mundo" entendido como una unidad medianamente homogénea –e.g. ¿cómo poner a China y Sudán en una misma bolsa?- y han pasado a dividir el Tercer Mundo en regiones, intereses, grados de desarrollo, etc. Multilateralismo SelectivoSegún Shambaugh: "the Selective Multilateralism school believes that China should expand its global involvements gradually but selectively, and only on issues in which China's national security interests are directly involved (p. 17)." El núcleo conceptual de esta escuela es la disposición a colaborar e interactuar en las instancias multilaterales…siempre y cuando sirva a los intereses de Beijing. Tienen una buena acogida a la expansión de la gobernanza global, pero una desconfianza ante aquellos que ponen demasiado énfasis en el rol de China en la misma –resuenan aquí los constantes pedidos de oficiales y académicos estadounidenses de que China se transforme en un "responsible stakeholder." GlobalismoLos globalistas sí compran la idea que Beijing debería actuar como un "responsible stakeholder". Para éstos, China debería aceptar su nuevo rol como gran potencia y colaborar en la resolución de los problemas que aquejan a la comunidad internacional (especialmente a através de instancias multilaterales). Estos neo-kantianos son primos cercanos de la corriente liberal-institucionalista de autores como Robert Keohane, John Ikenberry, Andrew Moravcsik, entre otros. Las cuestiones más relevates dejan de ser la seguridad entendida tradicionalmente, como en el dominante realismo, para pasar a temas de economía internacional, seguridad humana, terrorismo, crimen organizado, la conformación de normas a nivel internacional, etc. Shambaugh comenta acertadamente que el cuarto de hora de este grupo estaría pasando. Su auge estuvo en los auspiciosos 90's, cuando China recién iba descubriendo las ventajas de pertencer al orden Occidental. Los convulsionados acontecimientos de 2009 y 2010 quizás sean recordados como las campanas que anunciaban la muerte de esta corriente de pensamiento.* * * * *Las clasificaciones antes expuestas poseen las desventajas de toda gruesa generalización: entre otras cosas, no respetan superposiciones que serían fáciles de encontrar entre las tendencias de análisis –e.g. un pensador en la escuela "realista" seguramente tenga extensos lugares en común con alguien de la escuela de las "grandes potencias," así como los podría tener alguien trabajando desde el "multilateralismo selectivo" con un miembro de la escuela del "sur global". No obstante, el análisis de Shambaugh es un buen punto de partida para organizar el escenario en el que se está disputando el debate sobre cómo actuar a medida que, aparentemente, el ex-"Imperio del Medio" recupera su privilegiado lugar de antaño. (4) El artículo, entonces, cumple acertadamente la función de "ordenador" y es por esto que los problemas de la generalización son aceptables. A su vez, exponer tal diversidad de corrientes es importante para desmitificar la idea de una identidad china única y homogénea, que de existir permitiría derivar de ésta la conducta de Beijing en el sistema. A decir del autor: "China has no single international identity today, but rather a series of competing identities (p. 9)." Aceptar esto ayuda a lidiar con la frustración de no poder terminar de comprender el complejo entramado que es la política exterior china, además de tornar más sofisticada, y especialmente másprudente, la mirada de los tomadores de decisiones del resto de las potencias hacia China.Ahora bien, así como no mirar dentro de los estados sería un error, obviar la relevancia que el sistema -i.e. el enfoque estructural- ejerce sobre la conducta de éstos sería una equivocación de similar magnitud. Esto es especialmente cierto para el mediano y largo plazo. La dificultad de sacar patrones de conducta claros de "la batalla de ideas," así como el inherente dinamismo sobre quiénes resultan "ganadores" de estas batallas, reducen las ventajas analíticas de este tipo de análisis. Poco podríamos decir, estudiando las corrientes de pensamiento actuales y su posicionamiento en el debate, sobre la conducta china de aquí a 20 o incluso 10 años. Hay por otro lado un problema más de fondo sobre el rol de las ideas en la formulación de las política exterior; uno del tipo del "huevo y la gallina:" ¿cómo saber que las ideas están guiando la política exterior y que no son los hechos los que marcan quiénes piensan qué y quiénes salen victoriosos de la "batalla de ideas"? Parece un tanto sospechoso que en la década de 1990 –cuando China empezaba su meteórico ascenso y se daba de frente con las ganancias que genera participar del orden económico occidental- los globalistas y las escuelas más soft tuvieron su gran momento de auge; mientras que a medida que China ha ido consolidando su poder el realismo y las tendencias más asertivas han encontrado un lugar de preeminencia en el debate. El estudio del ascenso chino en su versión menos inmediata debe, por lo tanto: a) tener una postura clara acerca de las consecuencias que impone la estructura sobre los grandes estados; b) generar una buena teoría sobre la dinámica de ascenso y descenso entre potencias y la relación de éstas con el resto del sistema; y c) hacer una detenida búsqueda de las lecciones (desde luego no de manera determinista) que la Historia de las relaciones entre-estados -y entre otros tipos históricos de unidades políticas- pueden proveer para tornar asequible un mejor entendimiento de lugar que China va a ocupar en el siglo XXI. (1) En su clásico trabajo, Man The State and War, Kenneth Waltz sentaba este punto: "The third image (estructura) describes the framework of world politics, but without the first and second images (individual y doméstica) there can be no knowledge of the forces that determine policy." (p. 238)(2) Ver: Fewsmith, Joseph, China Since Tiananmen: The Politics of Transition, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001(3) No sería difícil hacer un peralelismo con gran parte del pensamiento estadounidense hasta la guerra de 1898 con España.(4) Debates que por cierto no suelen ser demasiado apacibles: "For Chinese, it is quite jarring to all of a sudden be confronted with a whole new set of questions and external demands about China's international status, roles, and responsibilities." (p. 9) *Profesor Depto. Estudios Internacionales. FACS - Universidad ORT Uruguay. MA en Estudios Internacionales, Universidad Torcuato Di TellaE-mail: gcastro@sas.upenn.edu

Summary of the Study Introduction Sudan is the third largest country on the African continent with a total area of 1,882,000 sq km. before the secession of South Sudan in 2011; Sudan was the largest country in Africa, covering I million square miles. Sudan is unique and complex in its climate, politics, environment, languages, cultures, religion and ethnicities. Demographically, Africans are the majority (52%), with Arab and Beja tribes constituting 38% and 6% of the population, respectively. Over 597 tribes live in Sudan that speak more than 400 dialects and practice different religions, live in Sudan. Muslims make up 70% of the total population of Sudan, followers of indigenous beliefs comprise 25% and Christians constitute 5% of the population. The complex mixture of the Sudanese social fabric renders it neither distinctly African nor Arab country. The Sudanese, however, have long disagreed about Sudan's identity. For some, Sudan should be Arab and Muslim. Other believe that the country should respect and accommodate all the cultures, religions and minorities within its territory. Most of Sudan constitutions stated that Islam and Arabic language should define the national identity. Politically, since the independence, Sudan has experienced a fluctuation between military rule and democratic rule. In fact, Sudan spent thirty years under the military rule, and only twelve years under democratically elected governments. The successive governments have frequently made use of emergency legislation to broaden the executive powers. These legislative measures have contributed to conflict and facilitated a range of human rights violations. In addition to the political instability, Sudan has the distinction in Africa in enduring a devastating civil war: that is: Sudan's north-south civil war. The conflict started just a year before the independence of Sudan, in 1956. The cumulative impact of that conflict has been massive. The conflict has caused horrendous loss of life in any interstate war, and has produced the largest internally displaced population (IDP) in the world. Sudan north-south conflict has long been perceived as ethnic or even religious conflict between the north and the south. Ethnicity has been used generously in the description of that conflict. Yet, a closer look at the history of the conflict reveals that the root-causes of that conflict are highly complex. But, this is by no means to say that conflict has had no ethnic, racial and religious overtones. The eruption of the north-south conflict was the result of a combination of factors. One could trace the root-causes of the conflict to the invasion of the south from the north by Turkiyya that expanded southwards, and the simultaneous development of slave trade. Thereafter, the British rule contributed in different ways to the crystallizing of the north-south dichotomy. After the independence of Sudan, successive governments, were unsuccessful in handling the growing southern problem, ranging from neglect to attempts to reverse the British isolation by enforced Arabisation and Islamization of the southern Sudan. The north-south conflict ended, in 1972, when Addis Ababa Agreement was signed by then President Nimeiry. But, the conflict broke out again, in 1983, when the Addis Ababa Agreement was abrogated by the then President Nimeiry. After a series of peace talks (which witnessed 'start and stop'), a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was concluded, in 9 January 2005, between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM/SPLA) to end the conflict. The CPA provides for a temporary solution for the conflict through, inter alia, the distribution of the power between the north and the south of Sudan by establishing a decentralised system of government with a significant devolution of powers within which the Southern Sudan is to enjoy a regional autonomy and share half of the resources with north Sudan for a period of six years. Furthermore, the CPA creates joint institutions, such as, the Government of the National Unity (GoNU) in which the Southern Sudan participate and share ministerial posts. The CPA also provides for the establishment of a number of commissions for implementing and monitoring the CPA, for instance, the Evaluation and Monitoring Commission, the National Human Rights Commission, etc. At the end of the interim period, a referendum on the self-determination is to be held, in 2011, in which the people of the Southern Sudan will decide whether to remain within a united Sudan or to secede and form an independent State. The Aim of the Study The significance of this study derives from the conclusion of the CPA and the adoption of the Interim National Constitution (INC) that called for democratic transformation so as to bring an end to Sudan north-south conflict. While the CPA ended Sudan's north-south conflict, a lasting peace and a democratic transformation, in Sudan, may prove elusive unless the CPA provisions are translated into reality, especially the implementation of constitutional, legislative and institutional reforms, including human rights protection and respect for the rule of law. The study aims to answer whether the CPA and INC can fulfil their roles in securing peace and establishing a framework in which the constitutional protection of human rights are recognised and effectively implemented through the availability of the various mechanisms. In this respect, the CPA provided for the adoption of a new constitution (INC), with a view to embedding constitutionalism, rule of law promotion, and protection of human rights. It is, therefore, this study is meant to analyze the constitutional, legislative and institutional reforms of the CPA and INC with a view to examining whether such constitutional reforms may be conducive for a lasting peace, in Sudan, that is based on human rights protection, constitutionalism and the rule of law. The CPA stipulated the need for institutional and legislative changes to reduce the risk of recurrence of human rights violations. To this end, the CPA mandated the adoption of a bill of right (for the promotion and protection of human rights) and provided for re-restructuring of the courts system. Such institutional reforms are aimed at embedding constitutionalism. That is to say: establishing a system in which the constitution provides an agreed upon framework for the exercise of powers and the protection of human rights. In this respect, the study examines whether the outcome of the constitutional reforms process (to recognise, implement, and protect human rights as provided for in the INC) have been reflected in institutional and legislative reforms to protect and prevent human rights violations and address past violations and systemic factors that have contributed to violations. To that end, the human right jurisprudence of the constitutional court will be examined. The Organization of the Study a) The Structure of the Political/Governance System in Sudan under the INC With the devolution of the powers and resources to the Southern Sudan level and other States, the governance system, under the INC, is structured with four levels of government: the national level at the apex, the Government of South Sudan level, the State level (25 States), the local level. Now, the government responsibilities are decentralized and the national government allocates a significant proportion of revenues to the States. It is, therefore, that the first question that this study poses is: What is the impact of the current governance in giving greater equity of representation and decision-making influence to communities across Sudan, thereby facilitating conflict management to achieve a lasting peace in Sudan? In Sudan, previously appropriate design of institutions to ensure political accommodations for all social groups has not been established in a way that would give them the chance to function properly. Now, the INC restructures the prevailing governance system by establishing a decentralized system of government that bears the characteristics of asymmetrical/symmetrical federalism - asymmetrical in the structure and responsibilities of subunits, with the level of South Sudan having more powers and resources than other States across Sudan. Establishment of a federal structure may constitute a mechanism for preventing a relapse into conflict through the devolution of the powers to the State level. For a federal to work effectively, it requires a functional court system to decide on the jurisdictional limits of the different levels of government. Nevertheless, the relevance of the court system in resolving the intractably political contentions in federal countries, especially in transition situations, is uncertain. Noticeably missing from the literature is the study and analysis of the impact of the role of court system in post conflict countries. That said, the role of the court system in preserving democracy has grown in importance with the increase recognition of the judicial review of the constitutionality of the acts of the government organs and the recognition and the protection of human rights provisions. It is, therefore, that the involvement of the courts is necessary to ensure the successful operation of the federalism and thus the failure or the success of federalism is contingent on the implementation of the federal system by the courts. According to some scholars, 'federalism means legalism – the predominance of the judiciary in the constitution- the prevalence of a spirit of legality among the people'. As '[the] courts …are actually telling a government how far it can go with its assigned constitutional rights'. This leads to the second question that this study addresses which relates to the analysis of the constitutional reform as provided for in the INC, in general, but with a special focus on the role of the court system, through the application of judicial review and protection of human rights, to resolve not only disputes in litigations between private parties, but also to prevent the arbitrary exercise of the government power. b) The Structure of the Legal System (Court System) in Sudan under the INC The available literature presents different views as to the role of the court system in new democracies. On one hand, one view assumes that the courts have a fairly wide discretion to decide the outcome of the controversial cases to the needs of the political moment. The other view, on the other hand, takes the position that political actors do not exert any kind of influence at all on the way judges make their decisions. A third source, and with which I agree, argues that legal rules do put constrains over the exercise of the judicial discretion in controversial cases. A fourth view argues that in new fragile democracies constitutional courts/supreme courts should not be involved in judicial review, especially on adjudicating issues related to social and economic rights, which may profoundly affect the allocations of resources and violate the doctrine of separation of powers. In this respect, the study considers whether the court system, as restructured in the INC, and other constitutional guarantees introduced to the legal system as a whole, offer good prospects for constitutionalism that may control the power of the government so as not act arbitrarily. The role of court system in resolving disputes is highly contingent on the substantive law and the institutional structure within which the courts apply laws. Thus, this study examines to what extent the current structure of the legal system under the INC and the protection of human rights through the application of the Bill of Rights by the courts may signal the State's commitment to constitutionalism and respect to the rule of law. It is, therefore, that the role of the court system (in contributing to democratic transformation in Sudan) should be evaluated against the legal framework: that is the INC, with a focus on the independence of the judiciary, the application of the Bill of Rights and the rules governing the judicial review. c) The Legislative and Institutional Reforms under the INC The functions of the courts, in developing countries, have experienced increasingly transformative role as institutions that can hold the government organs accountable. The study aims to examine the practice of constitutionalism: that is, the implementation of the INC constitutional, institutional and legislative reforms, especially the compliance with the provisions of the INC and the CPA, in particular the role of the constitutional court as "a positive legislator". In this regard, the Sudanese Constitutional Court may play an important role in the law reform process given its power to annul laws found unconstitutional. This entails the non-applicability of such laws and, as a result, would compel the government institution/organ concerned to adopt new legislation that is in conformity with the INC. Thus far, the Sudanese constitutional court, under the INC, has received a number of human rights cases that involved issues related to violations of human rights or related to the constitutionality of key legislation, such as counter-terrorism laws, immunities for officials and statutes of limitation for torture. So what role the constitutional court has played in the law reform process under the INC? For the court system to play a role in the democratic reform, a comprehensive law reform process is seen as a prerequisite to bring the existing laws in line with the provisions of the INC and enacting new laws. Therefore, this study identifies what legislative and institutional reforms that have been undertaken by the parties to the CPA during the interim period to address human rights violations, root-causes of the conflict; inequality; marginalization, rule of law vacuum and weak democratic structures. Furthermore, this study offers empirical evidence for the judicial behavior of the Sudanese constitutional court through a systematic examination of selected human rights jurisprudence of the constitutional court to gauge its role in the law reform process in Sudan since the adoption of the INC. Overview of the Study and the Main Findings of the Study Introductory Chapter: Overview of the Study The Introductory Chapter provides an overview of the study, including, the key features of the State of Sudan, the aim of the study, the main objectives of the study, and a general overview of the study. Chapter One: A Historical Background of Sudan's North-South Conflict Chapter One gives a rich and deep account of Sudan north-south conflict. It looks at the root-causes of the conflict by elaborating on different factors that directly and indirectly contributed in making that conflict protracted. Chapter one moves on to consider the end of the first Sudan's north-south conflict which was ended when Addis Ababa Agreement was signed in 1972. Chapter one further elaborates on Sudan's second north-south conflict which broke out in 1983. Finally, Chapter one touches on the various peace initiatives that ended by the conclusion of the CPA. Chapter One concludes by analysing the CPA. In the final analysis, the CPA made significant changes the prevailing governance and legal systems in Sudan by establishing a federal system, introduced a dual legal system a bill of rights, provided for the right to self-determination for the south Sudan, established institutions for the protection of human rights by establishing mechanisms such as National Human rights Commission, and distributed the wealth equally between the north and the south. However, the CPA failed to include the Sudanese people in the talks leading to the conclusion of the CPA, as the CPA was bilateral reflecting the views of the north and the south. Chapter Two: The Structure of the Governance System under the INC The INC describes Sudan as a decentralized State with different levels of government: the national level, the Southern Sudan level, the State level and the local level. It further grants the Southern Sudan autonomy status. A careful analysis of the current governance arrangements reveals that the INC provides for asymmetric/symmetrical federalism system of governance. Chapter Two discusses the allocation of legislative powers between the national government, the Southern Sudan and the rest of the country and the nature of the constitutional design of the INC to manage diversity of Sudan (ethnic, linguistic, religious and cultural diversity). At the outset of Chapter Three provides an overview the fundamental principles of federalism and provides a brief historical background of federalism in Sudan and how federalism arrangements can play a role as a tool for peace-building. In the final analysis, in contract with old constitutions of Sudan, the INC establishes a federal system, with four levels of government; national, south Sudan, State and local levels. The INC federal system guarantees the special characteristics of all ethnic and religious groups in Sudan through the creation of the Council of the States. However, all the States in Sudan are not treated equally, because (1) two States have special status (South Kordofan and Blue Nile States), and (2) between the ten States in the South and the national level, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) is inserted to exercise authority in respect of the ten States at South Sudan level. This means the INC creates asymmetrical/symmetrical federalism, as the South Sudan level enjoys significant autonomy and exclusive authority over ten States in South Sudan. All the States in Sudan are not treated equally, because (1) two States have special status (South Kordofan and Blue Nile States), and (2) between the ten States in the South and the national level, the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) is inserted to exercise authority in respect of the ten States at South Sudan level. This means the INC creates asymmetrical/symmetrical federalism, as the South Sudan level enjoys significant autonomy and exclusive authority over ten States in South Sudan. The INC Schedules (A – C) distribute the exclusive and legislative powers to the national level (A), the GoSS level (B), and the state level (C). Schedule (D) lists the concurrent powers and Schedule (E) allocates the residual powers as per its nature. Schedule (F) is a provision to resolve conflict that might arise under Schedule (D). It should be noted that not all issues listed in the INC schedules are allocated to one level of government only. For example, several substantive issues are granted to the national level as an exclusive competence, to the South Sudan level as an exclusive competence and at the same time to all levels of government as a concurrent power, such as telecommunication. With regard to the legislative powers allocated to the tens states at the South level, the GoSS according to Schedule (B) has the competence to enact a kind of framework with regard to issues that fall under the exclusive South Sudan State competence, thereby limiting the legislative powers of the ten States in South Sudan. Finally, the INC has reinforced existing power relations and failed to provide structural changes for democratic transformation, as the INC asymmetrical federalism accommodates the demands of the South Sudan only. As the INC does not accommodate the demands of the different ethnic and cultural groups in the different regions of Sudan as demonstrated in Darfur Peace Agreement and East Sudan Agreement. Chapter Three: The Structure of the Legal System under the INC The INC altered the Sudanese legal system with a view to accommodating the competing views: Sharia law and secularism. For a proper understanding of the present Sudanese legal system and an assessment of the role of the court system in contributing to democratic governance, a glance at the Sudanese legal history is necessary. Firstly, Chapter Three reviews the constitutional developments in Sudan since the independence to the present day. Secondly, Chapter Three provides overview of the structure of the court system in a decentralized system and focuses on the contribution of the court system to democratic transformation through limiting the acts of the government. Chapter Three further discusses issues that may impact of the role of the court system in contributing to democratic transformation. Yet, the role of the court system in promoting democratic transformation is contingent on the constitution, the substantive law, etc. For instance, instituting the principles of constitutionalism is contingent on the independence of the judiciary, as an independent judiciary is required for the protection of constitutional rights and to restrain the actions of the government. Thus, it is important to understand under what conditions the court system develops such accountability functions: that is, what conditions favor the ability of the court system to exercise an effective accountability functions. It is, therefore, Chapter Three examines (a) how the INC re-structures the court system in the north and the south of Sudan so as to give effect to the principles of the federalism and legal pluralism; (b) the rules regulating the judicial review, and (c) the protection of human rights through the implementation of the bill of rights by the court, all of which signal the commitment of the State to establish democratic governance. Finally, Chapter Three attempts to evaluate the independence of the judiciary and the rules that govern the judicial review before and after the adoption of the INC with a view to assessing the fidelity of the government to the principles of constitutionalism, and whether the limitations observed in the actual conduct of the government. In the final analysis, the INC constitution making process was bilateral reflecting the views of the parties to the CPA and lacked inclusiveness, but provides for a pluralism legal system by providing for a constitution for south Sudan and 25 State constitutions. The INC introduces State judiciary and South Sudan judiciary and opted for an integrated the court system. That is: the State courts apply the State laws, the national laws and the South Sudan laws. In the North, the State courts are still organized by the national level, although the NC provides for the establishment of the State judiciary. At the South Sudan level, all State courts are organized and financed at the level. Towards the South Sudan, the National Supreme Court is the final court of on matters arising under national laws The INC emphasizes the importance of protecting; respecting and promoting human rights through the inclusion a bill of right and incorporation via Art. 27(3) of the INC all human rights treaties that Sudan has ratified, thereby the human rights contained in the INC directly applicable before the Sudanese courts. Also, the implementation of some human rights requires revision of the existing statutory laws. To date there has been limited legislative reforms to address human rights violations. A few laws have been reformed but fall short of Sudan international obligations, such as Criminal Act, Security Laws, Immunity Laws, etc. The INC differentiates between the north and the south regarding the sources of legislation. Art. 5 of the INC lists Sharia as one of the sources of legislation along with the consensus of the people at the national level. Art. 5(2) of the INC names popular consensus and the values and the customs of the people of Sudan as the sources of legislation in South Sudan. The INC contains special rules for national legislation if its source is religion or custom. In that case, a state where the majority of residents do not practice such religion or customs may introduce different legislation allows practices or establishes institutions in that State that are consistent with its own religion or customs. The INC establishes human rights commission for the implementation of the bill of rights as well as a commission for the protection of non-Muslims in the Capital. The INC has chosen a concentrated system of judicial review and a hybrid system of judicial review with respect to the South Sudan as the Supreme Court of South Sudan acts as a constitutional court and a high court of Appeal with respect to South Sudan. The newly enacted Judicial and Administrative of 2005 does not provide for concrete judicial review of law and bars the court from question the constitutionality of law by way of making referral to the constitutional court, thereby renders the judiciary unable to deal with crucial constitutional issues. Chapter Four: Institutional and Legislative Reform: Practice of Constitutionalism In order to understand whether the adoption of the INC has brought any changes may enhance the role of the court system in contributing to democratic transformation; Chapter Four scrutinizes the compliance of the statutory law with the provisions of the INC, the law reform process in Sudan and the implementation of law in practice. Chapter Four further presents an analysis of more pertinent provisions of civil and political rights in the light of the laws and practices prevailing in the country to assess the extent to which the principles laid down in the INC are complied with. It further assesses the involvement of the Sudan constitutional court in the law reform process by reviewing a selected human rights jurisprudence of the constitutional court. Finally, Chapter Four makes a reference to the jurisprudence of other constitutional courts (the German constitutional court, the Indian Supreme Court and the South African constitutional court) by way of comparison. In the final analysis, a) the INC does not set out procedure for concrete review and access to the court is not free; b) The court has a broad power to consider and adjudge and annual any law in contravention with the constitution and restitute the right to the aggrieved person and compensate for the harm. The court may also order interim measures to avoid any harm. As such, the court can abolish laws and compel the government to enact new law; c) the constitutional court has reviewed a number of cases that alleged the violation of human rights. The court has demonstrated reluctance to declare legislation unconstitutional. Interpretation of the bill of rights and reference to international human rights lacked consistency and the court has taken deference to the executive; d) the constitutional, legislative and institutional changes did not acknowledge past human rights violations through mechanisms that would question the way of governance and persisting inequalities and injustices; e) the constitutional court has institutional weaknesses and its jurisprudence has largely upheld existing laws such as immunities laws and the constitutional court made limited reference to international human rights law; f) the constitutional, legal and institutional reforms failed to generate the sense of constitutionalism and the fundamental change that were to remove the causes for human rights violations and provide effective remedies. A number of laws contravening the human rights are still in force, such as, Public Order Act, Immunity of police, security and army officers, inadequate laws for the protection of women's rights; and finally, the implementation of CPA as a means of democratic transformation left an unreformed government virtually intact Chapter Five: Post- Referendum Sudan Chapter Five looks at the constitutional developments after the secession of South Sudan, with a focus on constitution making process in Sudan. The Southern Sudan Referendum for self-determination, held in July 2011, clearly indicated that the absolute majority of those who participated in the referendum for the Southern Sudan favour separation of the Southern Sudan from Sudan. The secession of the South Sudan on July 9, 2011, as a result of the referendum on self-determination provided by the CPA has created a new reality in Sudan with far reaching economic, political and social implications. Economic and financial losses related to the secession are substantial and have affected all sectors of the economy. Sudan has lost three-quarters of its largest source of foreign exchange (oil), half of its fiscal revenues and about two-thirds of its international payment capacity. In general, the secession of South Sudan resulted in a 36.5% structural decrease in overall government revenues. The unresolved issue of Abyei constitutes a trigger for potential violent tension in the future between Sudan and South Susan. Abyei status is yet to be decided, as both Sudan and South Sudan claiming it as part of its territory. Its final status will be decided by a Referendum for which implementation mechanisms have not yet been agreed upon by the two countries. The end of the CPA necessitated a constitutional review process to decide on the new constitution to replace the INC. However, for a constitution to be able to win the affections of the citizens of the State, it will be necessary to involve those citizens in the constitution-making process that establishes such a constitution, so as to ensure that the process is inclusive and reflects the aspirations of the Sudanese people at large. It is, therefore, important to increase public involvement in the constitution-making process by inviting public participation. In order for the design of a constitution and its constitution-making process to play an important role in the governance system, the design of the constitution has to be responsive to the aspirations of the ordinary people. A constitutional review process is currently under way but has not resulted in any clear proposals. That said, since 2011, a constitutional review has been underway in Sudan. The constitutional review process has not been participatory or inclusive. Lively debates on the new constitution in general, and the Bill of Rights and human rights protection in particular, have nevertheless ensued. These debates have been driven by a keen awareness of the importance of constitutional rights. These debates reflect both traditional concerns over the protection of civil and political rights, particularly in the administration of justice, and other issues that have also become a cause of acute concern. These include the desire for the realization of economic, social and cultural rights, and the rights of members of groups who suffer discrimination, particular women, religious and ethnic minorities and persons with disabilities. Currently, public debate over the new constitution is proceeding, although the Government has not yet announced a timeframe for the constitution making process, amid a polarization of views on diverse issues such as the decentralization of power and wealth sharing between the different regions of Sudan. Since 2011, the Government of Sudan, in collaboration with the UNDP and other UN agencies, initiated the forum on public participation in constitution making to facilitate open and public dialogue. This approach has been based on the need to pursue the constitutional process/review inclusively, transparently and participatory to ensure all sectors of society including civil society organizations and opposition political groups participate fully in the process.

Keith Hart on the
Informal Economy, the Great Transformation, and the Humanity of Corporations














International Relations
has long focused on the formal relations between states; in the same way,
economists have long focused exclusively on formal economic activities. If by
now that sounds outdated, it is only because of the work of Keith Hart. Famous
for coining the distinction between the formal and the informal economy in the
1970s, Hart is a critical scholar who engages head-on with some of the world's
central political-economic challenges. In this Talk, he, amongst others, discusses the value of the distinction 40
years after; how we need to rethink The
Great Transformation nearly a century later; and how we need to undo the
legal equivalence of corporations to humans, instituted nearly 150 years back.














Print version of this Talk (pdf)




What is, according to you, the
central challenge or principal debate in International Relations? And what is
your position regarding this challenge/in this debate?







I think it is the lack of fit between politics, which
is principally national, and the world economy, which is global. In particular,
the system of money has escaped from its national controls, but politics, public
rhetoric aside, has not evolved to the point where adequate responses to our
common economic problems can be posed. At this point, the greatest challenge is
to extend our grasp of the problems we face beyond the existing national
discussions and debates. Most of the problems we see today in the world—and the
economic crisis is only one example—are not confined to a single country.







For me, the question is how we can extend our research
from the local to the global. Let the conservatives restrict themselves to
their national borders. This is not to say I believe that political solutions
to the economic problems the world faces are readily available.  Indeed, it is possible that we are entering
another period of war and revolution, similar to 1776-1815 or 1914-1945. Only
after prolonged conflict and much loss might the world reach something like the
settlement that followed 1945. This was not only a settlement of wartime
politics, but also a framework for the economic politics of the peace,
responding to problems that arose most acutely between the wars.  It sounds tragic, but my point in raising the
possibility now is to remind people that there may be even more catastrophic
consequences at stake that they realize already. We need to confront these and
mobilize against them. When I go back in history, I am pessimistic about
resolving the world's economic problems soon, since the people who got us into
this situation are still in power and are still pursuing broadly the same
policies without any sign of them being changed. I believe that they will bring
us all into a much more drastic situation than we are currently facing. Yet in
some way we will be accountable if we ignore the obvious signs all around us.











How did you arrive at where you currently are in your thinking about IR?







My original work in West Africa arose out of a view that
the post-colonial regimes offered political recipes that could have more
general relevance for the world. I actually believed that the new states were
in a position to provide solutions, if you like, to the corrupt and decadent
political structures that we had in the West. That's why, when we were demonstrating
outside the American embassies in the '60s, we chanted the names of the great
Third World emancipation leaders—Frantz Fanon, Kwame Nkrumah, Fidel Castro, and so
on.







So for me, the question has always been whether
Africans, in seeking emancipation from a long history of slavery, colonialism, apartheid
and postcolonial failure, might be able to change the world. I still think it
could be and I'm quite a bit more optimistic about the outcome now than I have
been for most of the last fifty years. We live in a racialized world order
where Africa acts as the most striking symbol of inequality. The drive for a
more equal world society will necessarily entail a shift in the relationship
between Africa and the rest of the world. I have been pursuing this question
for the last thirty years or more. What interests me at the moment is the
politics of African development in the coming decades.







Africa began the twentieth century as the least populated
and urbanized continent. It's gone through a demographic and urban explosion
since then, doubling its share
of world population in a century. In 2050, the UN predicts that 24% of the world
population will be in Africa, and in 2100, 35% (read the report here, pdf)! This is because Africa is growing
at 2.5% a year while the rest of the world is ageing fast. Additionally, 7 out
of the 10 fastest growing economies in the world are now African—Asian
manufacturers already know that Africa holds the key to the future of the world
economy.







But, besides Africa as a place, if you will, a number
of anti-colonial intellectuals have played a big role in influencing me. The
most important event in the twentieth century was the anti-colonial revolution.
Peoples forced into world society by Western Imperialism fought to establish
their own independent relationship to it. The leading figures of that struggle
are, to my mind, still the most generative thinkers when we come to consider
our own plight and direction. My mentor was the Trinidadian writer C.L.R. James, with whom I spent a
number of years toward the end of his life. I am by temperament a classicist; I
like to read the individuals who made a big difference to the way we think now.
The anti-colonial intellectuals were the most important thinkers of the 20th
century, by which I mean Gandhi, Fanon and James.







But I've also pursued a very classical, Western
trajectory in seeking to form my own thinking. When I was an undergraduate, I
liked Durkheim and as a graduate student Weber. When I was a young lecturer, I
became a Marxist; later, when I went to the Carribbean, I discovered Hegel,
Kant and Rousseau; and by the time I wrote my book on money, The Memory Bank,
the person I cited more than anyone else was John Locke. By then I realized I
had been moving backwards through the greats of Western philosophy and social
theory, starting with the Durkheim school of sociology. Now I see them as a set
of possible references that I can draw on eclectically. Marx is still probably
the most important influence, although Keynes, Simmel and Polanyi have also shaped my
recent work. I suppose my absolute favorite of all those people is Jean-Jacques
Rousseau for his Discourse on Inequality and his inventive
approach to writing about how to get from actual to possible worlds.











What would a student need (dispositions, skills) to become a specialist
in IR or understand the world in a global way?







In your 20s and 30s, your greatest commitment should
be to experience the world in the broadest way possible, which means learning
languages, traveling, and being open to new experiences. I think the kind of
vision that I had developed over the years was not one that I had originally
and the greatest influence on it was the time I spent in Ghana doing my
doctoral fieldwork; indeed, I have not had an experience that so genuinely
transformed me since!







Even so, I found it very difficult to write a book
based on that fieldwork. I moved from my ethnographic investigations into a
literature review of the political economy of West African agriculture, and it
turns out that I am actually not an ethnographer, and am more interested in
surveying literature concerning the questions that interest me. I am still an
acute observer of everyday life; but I don't base my 'research' on it. Young people
should both extend their comparative reach in a practical way and dig very
deeply into circumstances that they encounter, wherever that may be. Above all,
they should retain a sense of the uniqueness of their own life trajectory as
the only basis for doing something new. This matters more than any professional
training.











Now we see spectacular
growth rates in African countries, as you mentioned, one of which is the DRC.
How can we make sense of these formal growth rates: are they representative of
the whole economies of these countries, or do they only refer to certain
economic tendencies?







The whole question of measuring economic growth is a
technical one, and it's flawed, and I only use it in the vaguest sense as a
general indicator. For example, I think it's more important that Kenya, for
example, is the world leader in mobile phone banking, and also a leader in
recycling old computers for sale cheaply to poor people.







The political dispensation in Africa—the combination
of fragmented states and powerful foreign interests and the predatory actions
of the leaders of these states on their people -- especially the restrictions
they impose on the movements of people and goods and money and so on – is still
a tremendous problem. I think that the political fragmentation of Africa is the
main obstacle to achieving economic growth.







But at the same time, as someone who has lived in
Africa for many years, it's very clear that in some countries, certainly not
all, the economies are very significantly on the move. It's not--in principle—that
this will lead to durable economic growth, but it is the case that the cities
are expanding fast, Africans are increasing their disposable income and it's the
only part of the world where the people are growing so significantly. Africa is
about to enter what's called the demographic dividend that comes when the
active labor force exceeds the number of dependents. India has just gone
through a similar phase.







The Chinese and others are heavily committed to taking
part in this, obviously hoping to direct Africa's economic growth in their own
interest. This is partly because the global economy is over the period of
growth generated by the Chinese manufacturing exports and the entailed infrastructure
and construction boom, which was itself an effect of the greatest shift from the countryside to the city in history. Now, the Chinese
realize, the next such boom will be—can only take place—in Africa.







I'm actually not really interested in technical
questions of how to measure economic growth. In my own writing about African
development, I prefer anecdotes. Like for example, Nollywood—the Nigerian film industry—which has just past
Bollywood as the second largest in the world! You mention the Congo which I
believe holds the key to Africa's future. The region was full of economic
dynamism before King Leopold took it over and its people have shown great
resilience since Mobutu was overthrown and Rwandan and Ugandan generals took
over the minerals-rich Eastern Congo. Understanding this history is much more
important than measuring GDP, but statistics of this kind have their uses if
approached with care.











Is it possible to
understand the contemporary economic predicament that we are seeing, which in
the Western world is referred to as the "crisis", without attributing it to
vague agencies or mechanisms such as neoliberalism?







I have written at great length about the world
economic crisis paying special attention to the problems of the Eurozone. My belief
is that it is not simply a financial crisis or a debt crisis. We are actually
witnessing the collapse of the dominant economic form of the last century and a
half, which I call national capitalism—the attempt to control markets, money
and accumulation through central bureaucracies in the interests of a presumed
cultural community of national citizens.







The term neoliberalism is not particularly useful, but
I try to lay out the history of modern money and why and how national
currencies are in fact being replaced. That, to my mind, is a more precise way
of describing the crisis than calling it neoliberal. On the other hand, neoliberalism does refer to
the systematic privatization of public interests which has become normal over
the last three or four hundred years. The bourgeois revolution claimed to have
separated public and private interests, but I don't think it ever did so. For
example, the Bank of England, the Banque de France, and the Federal Reserve are
all private institutions that function behind a smokescreen of being public
agencies.







It's always been the case that private interests
corrupted public institutions and worked to deprive citizens of the ability to
act purposefully under an ideological veil of liberty. But in the past, they
tried to hide it. The public wasn't supposed to know what actually went on
behind the scenes and indeed modern social science was invented to ensure that
they never knew. What makes neoliberalism new is that they now boast about it
and even claim that it's in everyone's interest to diminish public goods and
use whatever is left for private ends—that's what neoliberalism is.







It's a naked grab for public resources and it's also a
shift in the fundamental dynamic of capitalism from production for profit
through sales tow varieties of rent-seeking. In fact, Western capitalism is now
a system for extracting rents, rather than producing profits. Rents are income
secured by political privilege such as the dividends of patents granted to Big
Pharma or the right to control distribution of recycled movies. This has got
nothing to do with competitive or free markets and much opposition to where we
are now is confused as a result. Sometimes I think western capitalism has
reverted to the Old Regime that it once replaced—from King George and the East
India Company to George W and Halliburton. If so, we need another liberal
revolution, but it won't take place in the North Atlantic societies.











In your recent work,
you refer to The Great Transformation, which invokes Karl Polanyi's famous
analysis of the
growth of 19th century capitalism and industrialization. How can Polanyi
help us to make sense of contemporary global economy, and where does this
inspiring work need to be complemented? In other words, what is today's Great Transformation
in light of Polanyi?







First of all, the
Great Transformation is a brilliant book. I have never known anyone who
didn't love it from the first reading. The great message of Polanyi's work is
the spirit in which he wrote that book, regardless of the components of his
theory. He had a passionate desire to explain the mess that world society had
reached by the middle of the 20th century, and he provided an
explanation. It's always been a source of inspiration for me.







A central idea of Polanyi's is that the economy was
always embedded in society and Victorian capitalism disembedded it. One problem
is that it is not clear whether the economy ever was actually disembedded (for
example capitalism is embedded in state institutions and the private social
networks mentioned just now) or whether the separation occurs at the level of
ideology, as in free market economics. Polanyi was not against markets as such,
but rather against market fundamentalism of the kind that swept Victorian
England and has us in its grip today. The political question is whether politics
can serve to protect society from the excesses produced by this disembedding;
or whether it lends itself to further separation of the economy from society.







And I would say that Polanyi's biggest failure was to
claim that what happened in the 19th century was the rise of "market
society". This concept misses entirely the bureaucratic revolution that was
introduced from the 1860s onwards based on a new alliance between capitalists
and landlords which led to a new synthesis of states and corporations aiming to
develop mass production and consumption. Polanyi could not anticipate what
actually happened after he wrote his book in 1944. An American empire of free
trade was built on a tremendous bureaucratic revolution. This drew on
techniques and theories of control developed while fighting a war on all
fronts. The same war was the source of the technologies that culminated late in
the digital revolution. Karl Polanyi's interpretation of capitalism as a market
economy doesn't help us much to understand that. In fact, he seems to have
thought that bureaucracy and planning were an antidote to capitalist market
economy.







If you ask me what is today's great transformation, I
would prefer to treat the last 200 years as a single event, that is, a period
in which the world population increased from one billion to seven billion, when
the proportion of people living in cities grew from under 3% to around half,
and where energy production increased on average 3% a year. The Great Transformation
is this leap of mankind from reliance on the land into living in cities. It has
been organized by a variety of institutions, including cities, capitalist
markets, nation-states, empires, regional federations, machine industry, telecommunications
networks, financial structures, and so on. I'm prepared to say that in the
twentieth century national capitalism was the dominant economic form, but by no
means all you need to know about if you want to make a better world.







I prefer to look at the economy as being organized by
a plural set of institutions, including various political forms. The Great Transformation
in Polanyi's sense was not really the same Great Transformation that Marx and
Engels observed in Victorian England—the idea that a new economic system was
growing up there that would transform the world. And it did! Polanyi and Marx
had different views (as well as some common ideas), but both missed what
actually happened, which is the kind of capitalism whose collapse is constitutes
the Great Transformation for us today. The last thirty years of financial
imperialism are similar to the three decades before the First World War. After
that phase collapsed, thirty years of world war and economic depression were
the result. I believe the same will happen to us! Maybe we can do something
about it, but only if our awareness is historically informed in a
contemporarily relevant way.











The distinction between
states and markets really underpins much of what we understand about the workings
of world economy and politics. Even when we just say "oh, that's not economic"
or "that's not rational", we invoke a separation. How can we deal with this
separation?







This state-market division comes back to the bourgeois
revolution, which was an attempt to win freedom from political interference for
private economic actors. I've been arguing that states and markets were always
in bed together right from the beginning thousands of years ago, and they still
are! The revolution of the mid 19th century involved a shift from
capitalists representing workers against the landed aristocracy to a new
alliance between them and the traditional enforcers to control the industrial
and criminal classes flocking into the cities. A series of linked revolutions
in all the main industrial countries during the 1860s and early 70s—from the
American civil war to the French Third Republic via the Meiji Restoration and
German unification—brought this alliance to power.







Modernity was thus a compromise between traditional
enforcers and industrial capitalists and this dualism is reflected in the
principal social form, the nation-state. This uneasy partnership has marked the
relationship between governments and corporations ever since. I think that we
are now witnessing a bid of the corporations for independence, for home rule,
if you like. Perhaps, having won control of the political process, they feel
than can go ahead to the next stage without relying on governments.  The whole discourse of 'corporate social responsibility'
implies that they could take on legal and administrative functions that had
been previously 'insourced' to states. It is part of a trend whereby the
corporations seek to make a world society in which they are the only citizens
and they no longer depend on national governments except for local police
functions. I think that it is a big deal—and this is happening under our noses!







Both politicians and economic theorists (OliverWilliamson got a Nobel prize for
developing Coase's theory of the form along these lines)
are proposing that we need to think again about what functions should be
internal to the firm and what should be outside. Perhaps it was a mistake to
outsource political control to states and war could be carried out by private
security firms. The ground for all of this was laid in the late 19th
century when the distinction in law between real and artificial persons was
collapsed for business enterprises so that the US Supreme Court can protect
corporate political spending in the name of preserving their human rights!
Corporations have greater wealth, power and longevity than individual citizens.
Until we can restore their legal separateness from the rest of humanity and
find the political means of restricting their inexorable rise, resistance will
be futile. There is a lot of intellectual and political work still to be done
and, as I have said, a lot of pain to come before more people confront the
reality of their situation.











What role do
technological innovations play in your understanding and promoting of shifts in
the way that we organize societies? Is it a passive thing or a driver of
change?







I wrote a book, the
Memory Bank: Money in an Unequal World
(read it here, with the introduction
here), which centered on a
very basic question: what would future generations consider is interesting
about us? In the late '90s, the dot com boom was the main game in town. It
seemed obvious that the rise of the internet was the most important thing and
that our responses to it would have significant consequences for future
generations.







When I started writing it, I was interested in the
democratic potential of the new media; but most of my friends saw them as a new
source of inequality – digital exclusion, dominance of the big players and so
on. I was accused of being optimistic, but I had absorbed from CLR James a
response to such claims. It is not a question of being optimistic or
pessimistic, but of identifying what the sides are in the struggle to define
society's trajectory. In this case the sides are bureaucracy and the people. Of
course the former wish to confine our lives within narrow limits that they
control in a process that culminates as totalitarianism. But the rest of us
want to increase the scope for self-expression in our daily lives; we want
democracy and the force of the peoples of world is growing, not least in Africa
which for so long has been excluded from the benefits of modern civilization.
Of course there are those who wish to control the potential of the internet
from the top; but everywhere people are making space for themselves in this
revolution. When I see how Africans have moved in the mobile phone phase of
this revolution, I am convinced that there is much to play for in this
struggle. What matters is to do your best for your side, not to predict which
side will win. Speaking personally, Web 2.0 has been an
unmitigated boon for me in networking and dissemination, although I am aware
that some think that corporate capital is killing off the internet. A lot depends
on your perspective. I grew up learning Latin and Greek grammar. The
developments of the last 2-3 decades seem like a miracle to me. I guess that
gives me some buoyancy if not optimism as such.







It's obvious enough to me that any democratic response
to the dilemmas we face must harness the potential of the new universal media.
That's the biggest challenge. But equally, it's not clear which side is going
to win. I'm not saying that our side, the democratic side, is going to beat the
bureaucratic side. I just know which side I'm on! And I'm going to do my best
for our side. Our side is the side that would harness the democratic potential
of the new media. In the decade or more since I wrote my book on money and the
internet, I have become more focused on the threat posed by the corporations
and more accepting of the role of governments. But that could change too. And I
am mindful of the role the positive role that some capitalists played in the
classical liberal revolutions of the United States, France and Italy.











Final Question. I would
like to ask you about the distinction between formal and informal economy which
you are famous for having coined. How did you arrive at the distinction? Does the
term, the dichotomy, still with have the same analytical value for you today?








Around 1970, there was a universal consensus that only states could organize economies for development. You were either a Marxist or a Keynesian, but there were no liberal economists with any influence at that time. In my first publication on the topic (Informal Income Opportunities and Urban Employment in Ghana, read it here, pdf)—which got picked up by academics and the International Labor Organization—I was reacting against that; the idea promoted by a highly formal economics and bureaucratic practice that the state as an idea as the only actor. In fact, people in Third World cities engaged in all kinds of economic activities, which just weren't recognized as such. So my impulse was really empiricist—to use my ethnographic observations to show that people were doing a lot more than they were supposed to be doing, as recorded in official statistics or discussed by politicians and economists.






Essentially, I made a distinction between those things
which were defined by formal regulation and those that lay outside it. I posed
the question how does it affect our understanding in the development process to
know more what people are doing outside the formal framework of the economy.
And remember, this came up in West Africa, which did not have as strong a colonial
tradition as in many other parts of Africa. African cities there were built and
provisioned by Africans. There were not enough white people there to build
these cities or to provide food and transport, housing, clothing and the rest
of it.







In my book on African agriculture, I went further and
argued that the cities were not the kind of engines of change that many people
imagined that they were, but were in fact an extension of rural civilizations
that had effectively not been displaced by colonialism, at least in that
region. Now if you ask me how useful I think it is today, what happened since
then of course is neoliberal globalization, for want of a better term, which of
course hinges on deregulation. So, as a result of neoliberal deregulation, vast
areas of the economy are no longer shaped by law, and these include many of the
activities of finance, including offshore banking, hedge funds, shadow banking,
tax havens, and so on. It also includes the criminal activities of the
corporations themselves. I've written a paper on my blog called "How the
informal economy took over the world" which argues that we are witnessing the
collapse of the post-war Keynesian consensus that sought to manage the economy in
the public interest through law and in other ways that have been dismantled; so,
it's a free-for-all. In some sense, the whole world is now an informal economy,
which means, of course, that the term is not as valuable analytically as it
once was. If it's everything, then we need some new words.







The mistake I made with other people who followed me was
to identify the informal economy with poor slum dwellers. I argued that even
for them, they were not only in the informal economy, which was not a separate
place, but that all of them combined the formal and informal in some way. But
what I didn't pay much attention to was the fact that the so-called formal
economy was also the commanding heights of the informal economy—that the
politicians and the civil servants were in fact the largest informal operators.
I realize that any economy must be informal to some degree, but it is also
impossible for an economy to be entirely informal. There always have to be
rules, even if they take a form that we don't acknowledge as being
bureaucratically normal like, for example, kinship or religion or criminal
gangs. So that's another reason why it seems to me that the distinction has
lost its power.







At the time, it was a valuable service to point to the
fact that many people were doing things that were escaping notice. But once
what they were doing had been noticed, then the usefulness of the distinction
really came into question. I suppose in retrospect that the idea of an informal
economy was a gesture towards realism, to respect what people really do in the
spirit of ethnography. I have taken that idea to another level recently in mywork on the human economy at the University of Pretoria in South Africa. Here, in addition to
privileging the actors' point of view and their everyday lives, we wish to
address the human predicament at more inclusive levels than the local or even
the national. Accordingly, our interdisciplinary research program (involving a
dozen postdocs from around the world, including Africa, and 8 African doctoral
students) seeks ways of extending our conceptual and empirical reach to take in
world society and humanity as a whole. This is easier said than done, of
course.







Keith
Hart is Extraordinary Visiting Professor in the Centre for the Advancement of
Scholarship and Co-Director of the Human Economy Program at the University of
Pretoria, South Africa. He is also centennial professor of Economic Anthropology at the LSE.











Related links










Faculty Profile at U-London


Personal webpage


Read Hart's Notes towards an Anthropology of the Internet (2004, Horizontes Antropológicos) here (pdf)


Read Hart's Marcel Mauss: In Pursuit of a Whole (2007, Comparative Studies in Society and History) here (pdf)


Read Hart's Between Democracy and the People: A Political History of Informality (2008 DIIS working paper) here (pdf)


Read Hart's Why the Eurocrisis Matters to Us All (Scapegoat Journal) here (pdf)









Print version of this Talk (pdf)

학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :국제대학원 국제학과(국제통상전공),2019. 8. 김종섭. ; 본 연구의 목적은 글로벌 가치사슬 (global value chain, GVC), 혹은 여러 국가에 걸친 생산 단계의 분화 과정에 참여하여 특정 형태의 중간재 무역이 증가할 때, 숙련도가 다른 한국 노동자들의 임금에 차별적인 영향이 발생하는 가의 여부를 실증적 분석을 통해 검증하는 것이다. 최근 여러 개발도상국과 선진국에서 국가 내 불평등이 심화되는 현상이 관측되고 있으며, 이는 학계 및 정책입안자들 뿐만 아니라 일반인들의 주요 관심 대상이 되었다. 불평등이 정치적 안정성과 사회 통합에 영향을 미친다는 사실은 오랜 시간 인지되었다. 많은 국가 내에서 포퓰리즘과 시위가 늘어나는 등 정치적 갈등이 심화되고 있으며, 세계에서 경제 규모로 각각 1, 2위를 차지하는 미국과 중국 간의 무역 분쟁으로 현실화된 보호무역주의의 재등장은 오늘날 세계화와 불평등 사이의 상관 관계가 정치적으로 더욱 심각한 의의를 가진다는 것을 보여준다. 그러나 국제 생산 네트워크는 여러 국경을 넘나드는 글로벌 공급망 무역을 통해 촘촘하게 이어지는데, 이러한 글로벌 밸류 체인이 확산된 오늘날에는 관세, 쿼터, 그리고 기타 수입·수출 규제와 같은 비관세장벽의 비용이 더욱 높아졌다. 다시 말해 GVC 시대에서는 각 생산 단계를 거치며 수입 중간재가 국경을 여러 번 넘나들면서 관세의 비용이 누적·증폭되며, 전통적으로 내수형으로 여겨지는 농업과 서비스 같은 산업에 속한 생산과 고용 역시 해외 시장에 의존하는 경향이 커지는데, 이는 내수형 산업들조차 직접적으로 수출되는 제조업품 속의 부가가치로 체화되어 간접적으로 부가가치를 수출하기 때문이다. 따라서 과거 시대에 비해 무역 장벽은 고용과 임금에 더욱 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 양자간 무역의 직접적인 당사자 뿐만 아니라 간접적으로 국제 공급 사슬 무역에 참여하는 수많은 관련 국가와 산업들 모두에게 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 따라서 현대 사회에서 보호무역의 비용이 유래없이 높아진 만큼, 과연 그러한 정책의 밑바탕이 된 불평등 문제가 정말 무역에서 비롯된 것인지 정밀하게 연구하는 것은 아주 중요한 문제라고 할 수 있다. 1980년대와 90년대 초반까지 주류 경제학자들의 전반적인 의견은 무역이 불평등에 미친 영향이 미미했으며, 고숙련·저숙련 노동자들의 임금 격차가 벌어진 데에는 숙련 편향적 기술 진보와 같은 다른 요인들이 훨씬 중대한 효과를 미쳤다는 것이었다. 그럼에도 불구하고 세계화와 불평등의 관계에 대한 정책 입안자들과 일부 학계의 염려는 계속되어 왔으며, 특히 해외 아웃소싱 혹은 오프쇼어링과 임금 불평등의 관계에 대한 최근의 경험적 연구들은 여러 상반되는 결과들을 도출하였다. 한편, 글로벌 밸류 체인과 생산의 파편화가 확산된 상황에서는 무역의 잠재적인 숙련 편향적 효과를 새로운 GVC와 부가가치 무역 지수들로 연구하는 것이 중요하다. 이는 리카르도나 애덤 스미스 시대처럼 수출 속 부가가치가 거의 100% 국내에서 생산되는 것이 아니라 해외에서 수입한 중간재 혹은 다른 투입 요소가 차지하는 해외창출 부가가치 비중이 매우 커졌기 때문이다. GVC참여가 노동시장의 소득 재분배에 미치는 영향에 대한 최신의 경험적 연구들 역시 서로 상충되는 결과들을 내놓은 점에서, 더욱 정교한 방법론으로 다듬어진 실증 분석의 필요성이 제기된다. 특히 국제 공급 사슬 무역 속에 체화된 기술과 노동은 전통적 무역 이상으로 산업 고도화나 추가적인 노동 수요와 공급의 이동을 유발할 수 있기 때문에, 같은 GVC무역이라도 산업 혹은 국가에 따라 다른 영향을 미칠 수가 있다. 글로벌 가치 사슬에 가장 활발하게 참여하는 국가 중 하나인 한국의 사례가 중요한 또다른 이유는, 많은 경제학자들이 대학교와 같은 고등 교육에 투자를 해서 고숙련 노동의 비중을 높이는 것이 고숙련·저숙련 노동자 간의 임금 불평등을 해소할 수 있는 효과적 방안으로 제시하고 있고, OECD에서 가장 높은 비율의 고숙련 노동자를 보유하고 있는 한국의 경우 대학 교육 이수자의 지속적인 증가가 있었음에도 불구하고 임금 불평등이 해소되기는커녕 심화되었다는 점이다. 따라서 GVC와 임금 불평등의 구조를 연구하는 것은 GVC참여를 통해서 한국과 비슷한 방식으로 산업들의 기술 구조를 고도화하고자 하는 개발도상국들에게 좋은 참고가 될 수 있을 것이다. 한국의 예는 또한 선진국들에게도 중요한 의의를 가질 수 있다. 한국은 선진국 중에서 특이하게도 강건한 제조업 기반을 유지하고 있으며 반면에 서비스 산업이 상대적으로 낮은 비중을 차지하고 있다. 이런 산업 구조를 가지고 있음에도 GVC참여가 숙련 편향적인 효과를 보인다면, 최근 미국과 같은 선진국들이 보호무역을 통해 억지로 자국으로 (점점 낮은 부가가치를 차지하는) 생산·조립 단계 공정을 되돌리려는 "리쇼어링"을 유도하더라도 그들이 원하는 불평등의 개선 효과가 없을 수도 있다는 점을 함의한다. 산업 구조, 국가의 위치와 규모 등 수많은 요인에 따라 GVC참여가 노동 시장에 미치는 영향이 상이할 수 있는 바, 본 연구는 최근 축적된 국제 생산 분업에 대한 전반적인 선행 연구 분석과 함께 한국의 오프쇼어링, GVC관련 무역, 해외직접투자, 그리고 개발 및 산업 고도화 등의 다방면적인 질적 특성을 살펴봄으로써 이질적인 여러 종류의 GVC참여 방식이 국내 노동자들의 숙련도에 따라 임금에 어떤 상이한 영향을 미칠 수 있는지에 대한 가설을 설정한다. 본격적인 양적 회귀분석에 앞서 질적인 분석을 겸하는 이유는 GVC 무역 내에 체화된 업무와 숙련도를 알아야 노동 시장에 미치는 영향을 보다 정확히 파악할 수 있는 상황 속에서, 현재의 부가가치기준 무역 데이터조차 가치사슬 내의 정확한 산업 고도화 방향과 직무의 구성을 알기 어렵기 때문이다. 연구 가설들을 검정하기 위해 먼저 한국고용노동패널데이터 (KLIPS)에서 추출한 7,689명의 개인과 총 31,974개의 관측치로 이루어진 표본을 구성한 후 2018년 발표된 가장 최신 형태의 경제협력개발기구 (OECD) – 세계무역기구 (WTO) 부가가치 기준 무역 (TiVA) 지표들을 병합한다. 이 실증 분석 모형은 2005년부터 2015년까지 64개국간의 부가가치 무역을 추정하는 TiVA의 36개 산업 수준 지표들을 2009년부터 2017년까지의 개인 수준의 한국 노동자 데이터와 연결한다. 교육 수준으로 측정된 노동의 숙련 수준을 각 노동자가 속한 산업의 세 종류의 GVC 참여 지수 (총 참여율, 전방 참여도, 후방 참여도)와 함께 교차항에 넣어 상호 작용 효과 존재 여부를 살펴본다. 실증 분석을 위해 우선 변형된 Mincer 형태의 임금 모형에 종속변수인 각 개인 수준의 임금과 핵심 독립 변수인 노동 숙련도와 GVC참여율로 구성된 교차항과 함께 다양한 통제 변수와 고정 효과를 넣은 후, 패널 회귀분석을 실시한다. 이처럼 산업 수준 GVC 무역 지표를 개인 수준 임금 데이터와 통합시키는 방법론은 산업 수준 GVC 교역 지수를 산업 수준 임금 데이터와 연결 지은 기존 선행 연구에 비해서 동시적 인과관계로 인해 발생할 수 있는 내생성 편의 문제를 어느 정도 통제할 수 있다는 점에서 상당한 이점을 가진다. 실증 분석 결과 전반적으로 산업 수준에서의 GVC참여가 여러 숙련도로 나뉜 개인 노동자 수준의 임금에 유의미한 차등적인 효과를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 우선 교차항을 고려하지 않았을 때 전방, 후방 및 총 GVC참여율 모두 다른 변수들을 통제했을 때에도 통계적으로 매우 유의미하게 임금을 높이는 것으로 보였다. 하지만 이와 동시에 GVC참여는 고숙련 노동자들에게 상대적으로 더욱 큰 긍정적 임금 효과를 주는 숙련 편향적 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 여러 종류의 GVC참여 중에서도 전방 참여가 가장 큰 숙련 편향성을 나타내는 것을 드러냄으로써, 본 연구는 GVC참여의 종류를 구분하는 것이 매우 중요하다는 점을 확인하였다. 이는 한국의 노동 시장에 대한 선행 연구들이 거의 다루지 않은 부분일 뿐만 아니라, 최근에 세계 단위로 분석한 연구와 정 반대의 결과를 보여주기 때문에 기존 연구에 상당 부분 기여한다고 할 수 있다. 본 논문의 결과는 또한 동일한 형태의 GVC무역도 국가의 개별적 특성에 따라 체화된 숙련수준과 생산활동의 구성비에 따라 노동시장에 미치는 영향이 다를 수 있다는 점을 시사한다. 한편, 결과의 강건성 검증을 위해 다른 형태의 통제 변수와 모형, 그리고 대안적인 핵심 설명 변수로 시간 래그 변수와 총수출액 대비 부가가치 수출액의 비율(VAX Ratio)을 사용했을 때에도 전반적인 회귀 분석 결과는 유사하게 나오는 것으로 확인하였다. 본 연구는 한국의 경우 글로벌 공급 사슬 무역에 참여하는 것이 적어도 미시적인 수준에서 노동 시장에 숙련 편향적인 효과를 가져온다는 것을 밝히면서도, 동시에 모든 종류의 GVC참여가 노동자들의 전반적인 임금 수준에 긍정적인 영향을 미친다는 점을 보여줌으로써, 최근 불평등을 해소하는 정책으로 확산되는 보호무역주의는 최적의 해결책이 아니라는 경제학의 관점을 경험적 분석을 통해 확인하였다. 본 논문에서 무역과 노동 경제학이 가장 많은 부분을 차지하지만, GVC와 관련된 연구가 여러 학제간 교류가 활발한 간학문적인 분야라는 점과 최근의 무역 전쟁 및 불평등 문제가 정책적으로도 중대한 사안인만큼, 본 연구에 포함된 여러가지 이론 및 실증 분석의 결과들은 정치학, 국제관계학, 정치경제학, 사회학, 교육학, 행정학, 그리고 경영학과 같은 다양한 분야의 연구자들에게 유용한 결과를 제시한다. ; The main objective of this study is to elucidate how exposure to globalization in the form of participation in global value chains (GVCs), or the fragmentation of different stages of production across national and regional borders, has affected the wages of workers with different skill levels in the labor market of South Korea. The rise of income inequality within many developed and developing countries has once again captured the interest of academia, the public, and politicians. It has long been known that inequality affects political stability and social cohesion. Nowadays, political tensions run high in many nations, and as can be seen from various social phenomena such as the rise of populism, civil protests, and protectionism in the form of an ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies, the U.S. and China, the potential relationship between globalization and inequality continues to have ever more serious political implications. However, the costs of trade barriers such as tariffs, quotas, and other non-tariff barriers such as import or export restrictions are now higher than ever, due to the importance of cross-border supply chain trade that links international production networks. In an era of GVCs, tariffs are escalated because inputs must cross borders multiple times, while production and employment in many seemingly domestic-oriented industries such as agriculture and services actually depend on foreign markets, because their value-added is indirectly embodied as inputs in manufactured exports. Thus, trade restrictions may lead to significantly greater negative impacts on wages and employment than in previous eras. Moreover, barriers aimed bilaterally at one country can affect numerous other countries that participate in production sharing. In light of the high costs of protectionism in the contemporary world, an examination of whether trade actually has adverse distributional effects is crucial. Until the 1980s and early 90s, the consensus of neoclassical economists was that trade only had a minor impact on inequality while skill-biased technical or technological change and other factors were far more important drivers of divergences in the income of high and low skilled workers. Nevertheless, public suspicion and concern over the relationship has been unabated, and more recent literature on the relationship between offshoring and income inequality has shown conflicting results. At the same time, the expansion of global value chains and fragmentation of production increases the importance of studying the potential effects of a skill bias in trade with new GVC and value added trade indicators, since nowadays foreign intermediate goods and services are significantly embodied in the final product exports of a country, unlike the age of David Ricardo or Adam Smith, when exports were only domestically produced. Empirical findings regarding the relation between GVC participation and its distributional impacts on labor have been mixed, furthering the case for continued empirical investigation. The case of Korea, one of the most heavily integrated developed countries in GVCs, is also important because many economists have suggested that more investment in the tertiary education of unskilled workers can alleviate income inequality, but Korea has been experiencing a rise in inequality in spite of having the largest proportion of high skilled workers among OECD countries when following ISCED classifications. As such, a careful examination of how GVCs affect wage inequality can provide useful insights for developing countries that want to consistently upgrade their industries akin to the path that Korea has followed. Likewise, Korea's case has important implications for developed nations: Korea is an outlier among developed nations because it has a remarkably robust manufacturing sector as compared to services, yet, the existence of a skill bias of global supply chain trade in spite of this may imply that current high income economies tempted to engage in protectionism to "re-shore" overseas production back into national borders (such as the U.S.) might not achieve the distributional results they intended. The lower value-added assembly stages of manufacturing coming back would not necessarily contribute to reducing inequality in the home country. A careful examination of the literature on the labor market impacts of international production sharing, as well as the qualitative characteristics of Korea's offshoring, GVC-related trade, foreign direct investment, and development - industrial upgrading trajectory are factored into the formulation of several hypotheses on how heterogeneous types of GVC participation might impact workers of different skills in Korea. This is to complement the limitations of value added trade data in showing the composition of business functions as well as direction of industrial upgrading, as finding the specific mix of tasks and skills embodied in GVC trade is crucial to understanding labor market impacts. To test these hypotheses, a panel data set consisting of 7,689 individuals and 31,974 individual-year observations is constructed by merging and matching data from the Korea Labor Income Panel Survey (KLIPS) with the updated 2018 version of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators, which are derived from the Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) database. This empirical model links the 36 industry-level indicators of TiVA, which covers 64 economies for 2005-2015, with the micro-individual level data of Korean workers from 2009-2017. The skill level of labor, measured in terms of educational attainment, is interacted with three different types of GVC participation indices (total, forward, and backward) of the respective industries in which the workers are employed each year. The wages of each individual worker, the dependent variable, are regressed on this product term of skills and GVC participation, using a variation of the Mincerian human capital wage equation along with various controls and fixed effects appropriate for this multi-dimensional panel data analysis. This approach of investigating the relationship between industry-level cross-border production sharing indicators on individual-level variables has a significant methodological advantage compared to many earlier studies using industry-level wage variables. Combining the two different levels can mitigate endogeneity concerns that may arise due to simultaneity bias. Overall, the findings of this study show that differences in GVC integration at the industry level indeed have heterogeneous effects on wages of individual workers classified in different skill groups. While all three types of GVC participation have positive effects on wages when controlling for other variables, the direction and magnitude of coefficients for each group of workers suggests the existence of a "skill-bias," in which increased GVC participation has a relatively favorable impact toward higher skilled employees as opposed to low or mid-skilled workers. This skill bias is strongest for forward participation, which underlines the importance of distinguishing between different types of GVC participation, a factor which was neglected in previous empirical studies combining sector-level GVC indicators with individual-level labor data. The fact that these results directly contrast with a recent cross-country study that found skill-biased effects for backward GVC trade rather than forward supply chain linkages, suggests that the country-specific business functions, skills, and tasks embodied within intermediate inputs trade affect the causal relationship between both types of GVC participation and labor market impacts, in line with this dissertation's analysis of Korea's specific position in GVC trade and development trajectory. Moreover, robustness checks show that the results are generally stable when estimated with complementary or alternative specifications of variables and models, including time lags and the Value Added Exports (VAX) ratio. At the same time, although there is a skill bias of global supply chain trade, this research shows that overall wages of workers are positively affected through all types of GVC trade, hence leading to the suggestion that the current protectionist sentiment spreading in the global economy is not the optimal answer to deal with inequality. Although the study mostly draws insights from and fills in the gap in contemporary international trade literature and labor economics, the multi-disciplinary relevance of the findings with respect to global value chains and within-country income inequality should be of interest to scholars and policymakers of many fields, including political science, international relations, political economy, sociology, educational studies, public policy, and business management among others. ; Abstract i Table of Contents v List of Tables and Figures vii I. Introduction 1 1. Background and Research Motivation 1 2. Overview of the Study 12 II. Literature, Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses 17 1. Literature Review 17 1.1. Global Value Chains (GVCs) 17 1.1.1 Concept, History and Terminology 22 1.1.2 GVCs and Value Added Trade Data 33 1.1.3 Importance of Trade in Value Added 42 1.1.4 The Role of Services 44 1.2. Labor Market Impacts of Trade and Offshoring 46 1.2.1 Benefits of Trade 51 1.2.2 Traditional Trade and Inequality 53 1.2.3 Trade in Tasks and Wage Effects 59 1.3 Traditional Proxy Measures of Offshoring Trade 64 1.3.1 Broad and Narrow Offshoring 64 1.4. Second Generation Offshoring Statistics 68 1.4.1 Vertical Specialization 70 1.4.2 VAX Ratio 73 1.5. The GVC Participation Index 76 1.5.1 Backward Participation (Foreign VA in Gross Exports) 78 1.5.2 Forward Participation (Domestic VA in Exports to third countries) 79 1.5.3 Total GVC Participation 79 1.5.4 Data Limitation: Absence of Business Functions and Tasks 81 1.6 Additional Labor Market Impacts of GVC Participation 83 1.6.1 The Smile Curve and Industrial Upgrading 85 1.6.2 Higher growth, development and productivity 93 1.6.3 Empirical Analyses on GVCs and Employment 96 1.6.4 Cross-country Analyses on GVCs and Wages 97 1.7 Korea and Global Value Chains 101 1.7.1 Korea's Prominent Role in GVC Trade 101 1.7.2 Factors underlying Korea's GVC participation 114 1.7.3 Korea's Export-Led Growth and Industrial Upgrading Path 116 1.7.4 Shifting to Higher Value Added Activities and Offshoring Assembly 122 1.7.5 Empirical Literature on the Labor Market Impacts of Globalization in Korea 128 2. Hypotheses Formulation 144 2.1. Model Predictions 144 2.2. Summary of Hypotheses 153 III. Data and Empirical Methodology 155 1. Data Sources and Sample 155 1.1. OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Indicators 155 1.2. Korea Labor Income Panel Survey (KLIPS) 158 2. Econometric Analysis 161 2.1. Baseline Panel Regression Wage Equation Model 161 3. Variable Construction 163 3.1. Constructing Variables from KLIPS 163 3.2. Skills and Educational Attainment Variables 166 3.3. Constructing GVC Trade Variables from OECD TiVA 170 3.4. Alternative GVC Measures for Robustness Checks 172 3.5. Matching GVC Industries with KLIPS 174 IV. Results and Interpretation 177 1. Main Specification 177 1.1. Total GVC Participation 180 1.2. Forward GVC Participation 187 1.3. Backward GVC Participation 192 2. Further Robustness Checks 195 2.1. International ISCED Definition of Skills 196 2.2. Robustness to Endogeneity and Simultaneous Equation Bias 198 2.3. Individual Fixed Effects 199 2.4. Alternative Specifications: Time-Lagged GVC Trade Variables 202 2.5. Alternative Specifications: Value Added Export (VAX) Ratio 208 V. Conclusion 218 1. Contribution to Economics Literature 218 2. Contribution to Policy-Making and Other Academic Fields 222 3. Limitations and Suggestions for Future Research 223 List of References (Bibliography) 228 국문 초록 (Abstract in Korean) 260 ; Master

Für die Wirtschaft von Vietnam ist die Ausfuhr von Holzprodukten mit 3,8% des Bruttosozialprodukts ein wichtiger Bestandteil (Nguyen, 2011). Im Jahr 2010 benötigte die holzverarbeitende Industrie von Vietnam 6,4 Mio. m³ Rundholzäquivalente, von denen nur 1,6 Mio. m³ (25%) aus heimischen Wäldern stammte (To and Canby, 2011). Die restlichen 4,8 Mio. m³ (75%) wurden aus anderen Ländern eingeführt (Nguyen, 2009). Es ist Ziel der vietnamesischen Regierung, dass in Zukunft 80% des Rohholzverbrauchs der heimischen Holzindustrie aus den Wäldern (Naturwäldern und Plantagen) des Landes geliefert werden. Bis heute sind lediglich 1% der vietnamesischen für die Holzproduktion bestimmten Wälder (insgesamt mehr als 2,4 Mio. ha) in Bezug auf ihre Nachhaltigkeit zertifiziert, dieser Anteil soll bis 2020 auf 30% ansteigen. Um die genannten Ziele zu erreichen, ist es entscheidend, die Holzbereitstellungsketten in Vietnam weiterzuentwickeln. Die angestrebte Erhöhung der nationalen Holzversorgung wird dabei auch deutliche Änderungen im Bereich der Holzbereitstellung nach sich ziehen, und zwar sowohl bei der Nutzung von Naturwäldern als auch bei der Bewirtschaftung von Plantagenwäldern. Es ist sowohl aus nationaler Sicht wie auch im Hinblick auf die internationale Konkurrenzfähigkeit des Forst-Holz-Sektors von Vietnam entscheidend, dass diese Veränderungen so gestaltet werden, dass auch zukünftig eine nachhaltige Holzbereitstellung gewährleistet ist. Aus verschiedenen Gründen, wie z.B. niedrige Arbeitskosten, großes Angebot von Arbeitskräften gerade im ländlichen Raum, geringe Verfügbarkeit von Investitionskapital und auch wegen der kleinen und zerstreut liegenden Nutzungsflächen, bedient sich die Holzernte und –bereitstellung in Vietnam heute weit überwiegend traditioneller und handarbeits-intensiver Methoden. Parallel mit der geplanten höheren Nutzung werden zwangsläufig auch höher mechanisierte Systeme eingesetzt werden. Diesen Übergang zu begleiten und seine Konsequenzen für die Nachhaltigkeit abzuschätzen ist Oberziel der vorliegenden Arbeit. Unter Anwendung des Konzepts des Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA), welches die drei Aspekte der Nachhaltigkeit (Wirtschaft, Ökologie, Gesellschaft) umfasst, soll das Nachhaltigkeitsprofil verschiedener Holzbereitstellungsketten in einem Fallstudien-basierten Ansatz dargestellt und analysiert werden. Dabei werden exemplarisch die folgenden Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren herangezogen: Ausnutzungsgrad des Rundholzes, Arbeitsproduktivität, Bereitstellungskosten, Beschäftigungseffekte, Lohnhöhe, Unfallhäufigkeit, Emission von klimaschädlichen Gasen, Entstehung von gesundheitsschädlichem und nicht-gesundheitsschädlichem Abfall, sowie Schäden am Waldboden. Vier Fallstudien wurden dabei ausgewählt, um die Verhältnisse für typische Nutzungsverhältnisse in Vietnam exemplarisch darzustellen: Selektive Nutzung von natürlichen (Regen-) Wäldern in eher flachem und in steilem Gelände sowie Eukalyptusplantagen, die im Kurzumtrieb und mit Kahlschlagmethoden geerntet werden, ebenfalls in gemäßigtem und imsteilem Gelände. Die analysierten Bereitstellungsketten begannen im Wald mit der Vorbereitung der jeweiligen Nutzungsbestände und umfassten alle folgenden Schritte und Prozesse der Holzbereitstellung und des Holztransports bis hin zur Holzindustrie. In den verschiedenen Fallstudien kamen sowohl traditionelle Technologien (Handarbeit, Zugtiere) wie auch teilmechanisierte Systeme (Motorsäge, Traktoren, Forwarder, Lastwagen) zum Einsatz. Die Datenermittlung erfolgte durch ausgedehnte eigene Zeitstudien aller Prozesse vor Ort, ergänzt durch Befragungen von Führungskräften und Mitarbeitern und unter Verwendung einschlägiger Statistiken, Literaturangaben und Datenbanken. Die beiden Fallstudien zur selektiven Nutzung von Naturwäldern im steilen Gelände (FWSC1) sowie im gemäßigten Gelände (FWSC2) zeigen, dass es deutliche Unterschiede hinsichtlich der Nachhaltigkeitswirkungen zwischen den beiden Bereitstellungsketten gibt, die durch die unterschiedlichen angewendeten Holzernte- und –bereitstellungsmethoden verursacht werden. In FWSC1 werden direkt nach der Fällung die Stämme vor Ort im Wald mit der Motorsäge in Bohlen (Volumen 0,20 – 0,35 m³) zerlegt, um diese danach mit Hilfe von Büffeln aus dem Wald heraus zu transportieren. In FWSC2 wurde nach dem Fällen mit der Motorsäge mit einem Kettenfahrzeug mit Seilwinde das Rundholz zur Fahrstraße geschleift. Nach dem Transport mit Lastwagen wurden die Sägeholzblöcke dann im Sägewerk zu Brettern verarbeitet. Die Rundholzausnutzung war bei diesem zweiten Prozess dabei mit 66,6% des Volumens des geernteten Baumes um 27,2%-Punkte höher als bei der ersten Methode, wo die Bohlen bereits im Wald mit Motorsägen zugerichtet wurden. Bei beiden Holzernteverfahren blieb eine relativ große Menge an Gipfelholz, Ästen und (bei FWSC1) Sägeresten ungenutzt im Bestand liegen. In Bezug auf die Produktivität wurden in FWSC1 88,6% des Zeitverbrauchs für Motorsägen-Arbeit auf das Zuschneiden von Bohlen im Wald verwendet, so dass sich insgesamt eine sehr niedrige Produktivität für die Motorsägen-Arbeit von 0,25m³ je Stunden ergab. Auch die Produktivität beim Herausziehen des Holzes mit Büffeln war mit 0,12m³ je Stunde gering. Im Gegensatz dazu war bei dem höhermechanisierten Verfahren sowohl die Motorsägen-Produktivität mit 11m³ je Stunde wie auch die Produktivität der Traktor-Rückung mit 6,7m³ je Stunde deutlich höher. Dies wirkt sich auch auf die Bereitstellungskosten aus: Während diese im FWSC1 bei 50,40 € je m³ Sägeholz lagen, betrug der Kostensatz einschließlich der Sägeholzherstellung im Sägewerk bei FWSC2 nur 34,90 € je m³. In Bezug auf die Umweltaspekte zeigt sich, dass das geringer mechanisierte Verfahren niedrigere Mengen an klimaschädlichen Gasen (7,83 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Sägeholz) frei werden, während bei FWSC2 22,68 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ freigesetzt werden. Auch der Waldboden war bei der mechanisierten Methode mit 12,8% etwas stärker in Anspruch genommen als bei der Holzbereitstellung mit Büffeln (10,7%). Insbesondere ist aber ein starker Schädigungsgrad des Bodens mit 6,2% bei mechanisierten Verfahren fast doppelt so hoch wie bei dem Einsatz von Büffeln (3,45%). Diese Ergebnisse decken sich mit Werten aus der Literatur, die allerdings auch darauf hinweisen, dass eine sorgfältig geplante Holzerntemaßnahme (Reduced Impact Logging – RIL) ebenfalls zu niedrigeren Schadwerten zwischen 4 und 5% der Fläche führen kann. Für die Holzbereitstellungsketten in Eukalyptus-Kurzumtriebs-Plantagen (FWSC3 – Steilgelände und FWSC 4 – mäßig geneigtes Gelände) sind die Voraussetzungen für die Holzbereitstellung und den Holztransport günstiger als in den beiden untersuchten Fällen der Naturwaldnutzung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Rundholzausnutzungsrate mit 79,8% in FWSC3 bzw. 68,9% in FWSC4 relativ hoch ist. Die meisten bei der Aufarbeitung zurückbleibenden Stammteile und Äste wurden im Nachgang von den Waldarbeitern als Feuerholz gesammelt trotz des geringen Durchmessers der gefällten Bäume. Die Geländeneigung hatte nur einen geringen Effekt auf die Produktivität der Motorsägen. Sie betrug 1,95 m³ je Stunde für Fällen und Ablängen in FWSC3 während die Produktivität im gemäßigten Gelände mit 2,11 m³ je Stunde etwas höher lag. Hier wurde das Einschneiden der Stämme nach Langholzrückung erst am Wegrand vorgenommen. Erstaunlicherweise waren die Unterschiede in der Produktivität beim Vorliefern und Rücken des Holzes an die Waldstraße in beiden Fällen nur gering: Sie betrug 0,26 m³ je Stunde in FWSC3, wo im steilen Gelände die bereits zugeschnittenen Rundholzstücke per Hand zum Wegrand gerollt wurden; und 0,33 m³ je Stunde in FWSC4, wo im flachen Gelände Büffel für das Holzrücken eingesetzt wurden. Entsprechend zeigen die Bereitstellungskosten in beiden Holzbereitstellungsketten relativ geringe Unterschiede: Bis zum Verbraucher (Papierfabrik) betrugen die Kosten in FWSC3 10,36 € je m³, während sie in FWSC4 mit 11,7 € je m³ nur wenig höher lagen. Deutliche Unterschiede gab es indessen bei den frei werdenden klimaschädlichen Gasen: In FWSC3 betrug dieser Wert 7,35 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Rundholz, während er in FWSC4 beim Einsatz von Tieren bei nur 2,94 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ lag. Entscheidend war hierbei, dass bei FWSC3 das Laden und Entladen des Holzes mit Kran bzw. Lader mechanisiert erfolgte, während das Be- und Entladen in FWSC4 von Hand bewältigt wurde. Die Bodenschäden lagen bei der Plantagennutzung im Kahlschlagbetrieb deutlich höher als zuvor bei der selektiven Nutzung im Naturwald: Beim Fällen und Vorliefern von Hand (FWSC3) war die beschädigte Bodenfläche mit 34,7% nochmals höher als beim Einsatz von Büffeln in FWSC4 mit 22,7% der Fläche. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung zeigen, dass ein möglicherweise zukünftig höherer Grad der (Teil-) Mechanisierung mit positiven Nachhaltigkeitseffekten in Hinblick auf Rohholzausnutzung, Produktivität und Bereitstellungskosten einhergehen dürfte. In Hinblick auf die sozialen Aspekte sind die Ergebnisse weniger eindeutig: Einerseits ist eine deutlich verminderte Schwere der körperlichen Arbeit und auch eine geringere Unfallneigung zu erwarten. Zum anderen gehen jedoch auch Arbeitsplätze durch Mechanisierung verloren. Wie die Literaturangaben zeigen, könnte dieser Effekt jedoch zum Teil kompensiert werden durch die geplante Erhöhung der Nutzung einerseits und durch Arbeitsplätze, die im nachgelagerten Bereich z.B. bei der Wartung und Instandhaltung von Maschinen entstehen werden. In Bezug auf die Umweltwirkungen Emission klimaschädlicher Gase sowie Störungen des Waldbodens werden höhermechanisierte Methoden in der Tendenz ebenfalls zu höheren Belastungen führen. Diese können z.T. durch bessere Planung und Überwachung (RIL) begrenzt oder sogar kompensiert werden, wie entsprechende Literaturangaben zeigen. Die Möglichkeiten und Effekte einer höheren Mechanisierung wurden am Beispiel der Holzbereitstellungskette von Zellstoffholz aus Plantagen unter günstigen Geländebedingungen (FWSC4) im Sinne einer Variantenstudie detailliert analysiert: Das Ergebnis zeigt, dass unter den gegebenen Geländeverhältnissen das Vorliefern und Rücken von Holz mit Büffeln so wie das besonders anstrengende händische Beladen und Entladen von Holz auf die Transportfahrzeuge durch eine einfache "Traktor-Trailer-Kran" Kombination mechanisiert werden könnte. Ein landwirtschaftlicher Traktor der Stärkeklasse 60 kp mit einem Rundholzanhänger, auf dem ein hydraulischer Kran montiert ist, könnte auch unter den gegebenen für eine Nutzung ungünstigen strukturellen Bedingungen der Eukalyptusplantagen (geringe Stückmasse des Plantagenholzes und kleine Schlagflächen) eingesetzt werden. Die Investitionssumme würde für Vietnam 34.100,-- € betragen. Dies würde zu Bereitstellungskosten von 14,81 € je m³ Rundholz frei Werk führen (wobei die LKW nicht wie derzeit überladen sind). Dieser Kostensatz wäre 15,3 niedriger als die hier untersuchte Methode unter Einsatz von Handarbeit und Zugtieren. In Bezug auf die sozialen Aspekte würde die Einführung eines entsprechend mechanisierten Traktor-Trailer-Kran-Systems den Beschäftigungseffekt von 13,9 Stunden je m³ auf 4,26 Stunden je m³ mehr als halbieren, während andererseits die Löhne von derzeit 3,37 bis 4,29 € je Schicht auf 7,14 bis 17,85 € je Schicht erhöht wurden. Die höhere Mechanisierung würde ein besseres Training der Mitarbeiter erfordern, aber gleichzeitig geringere Risiken für Unfälle und eine verbesserte Ergonomie bedeuten. In Bezug auf die Umweltwirkung würde der Übergang auf das höher mechanisierte System zu einem etwas höheren Ausstoß von klimaschädlichen Gasen (10,18 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Rundholz gegenüber 7,2 kg CO2-Äquivalente je m³ Rundholz in der derzeitigen Arbeitsweise führen. Der durch den Traktoreinsatz beeinträchtigte Anteil des Waldbodens würde sich je nach Arbeitsorganisation ggf. noch erhöhen. Er könnte aber auch abgesenkt werden, auch wenn eine klare Arbeitsorganisation und Überwachung der Maschinenbewegungen auf der Fläche als Standard eingeführt würde. Um den für Vietnam zu erwartenden Übergang auf eine höhere Mechanisierungsstufe auf breiter Fläche zu begleiten, sollte ein nationales Projekt angestoßen werden, zu dem auch systematische Aus- und Fortbildung der im Wald tätigen Arbeiter sowohl im Hinblick auf Arbeitsverfahren wie auch auf Sicherheit und Ergonomie gehören sollte. Auch wäre es günstig, größere Nutzungseinheiten festzulegen, um die Vorteile einer höheren Mechanisierung voll nutzen zu können. Schließlich wäre die Vergabe von Investitionshilfen und Steuer- sowie Importzollsenkungen zu erwägen, um den Akteuren die Anschaffung leistungsfähiger und zugleich schonender Forsttechnik zu erleichtern. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse Wege und Möglichkeiten auf, wie in Vietnam dem laufenden Trend zu mehr Nachhaltigkeit im Forstsektor entsprochen werden kann. Dies ist auch eine notwendige Vorbereitung zu der angestrebten Ausweitung der Nachhaltikeitszertifizierung nach den verschiedenen Konzepten (FSC, PEFC usw.). Auch zur Erfüllung der Erwartung von Importländern, dass die eingeführten Holzprodukte hohen sozialen und Umweltstandards genügen, ist es notwendig, dass die Wälder in Vietnam nachhaltiger als bisher bewirtschaftet und entsprechend zertifiziert werden. Hierbei ist insbesondere die Art und Weise der Holzbereitstellung und der Gestaltung der Holzernteketten zwischen Forst- und Holzindustrie entscheidend. Die Durchführung von systematischen Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIA) ist wie in dieser Arbeit gezeigt, ein geeigneter und strukturierter quantitativerAnsatz, um das Nachhaltigkeitsprofil und insbesondere die Schwachstellen der derzeitigen Praktiken aufzuzeigen und Hinweise in Richtung auf eine verbesserte Nachhaltigkeit zu geben. ; Timber related export revenues are an important component in GDP of Vietnam with 3.8% in 2010 (Nguyen, 2011). In 2010, a total of 13.1 million m3 roundwood equivalent was needed for Vietnam's wood processing industry of which only 6.48 million m3 (49.5%) was supplied by domestic forests, the remaining 6.62 million m3 (50.5%) was imported from other countries (Nguyen, 2009; To and Canby, 2011). The target of Vietnamese government by 2020 is that 80% of raw wood material that is processed domestically will be harvested from the country's plantations and natural forests and 30% of production forests (more than 2.4 million ha) will be certified from less than 1% at present. In order to reach these goals, the sector of the domestic forest wood supply chain in Vietnam will play an increasingly important role and will be paid more attention. The envisaged growth of the national wood supply will lead to substantial and significant changes in the forest-wood supply chain (FWSC) in terms of the utilization of natural forests and of plantation forest management. To monitor and shape these changes in a way that supports the sustainability of wood supply is crucial both from the national perspective and for the international competitiveness of the forest wood sector of Vietnam. At present, due to reasons such as low labour costs, employees availability, low available investment capital as well as small areas and the scattered distribution of single harvesting units, the current wood supply in Vietnam is mainly carried out by labour-intensive methods, but parallel to the planned increase in the utilization rate, more mechanized supply chain systems are likely to be introduced. To monitor and assess the options and consequences of this change is the underlying objective of this study. Using the concept of a sustainability impact assessment, taking into account the three aspects of sustainability (economy, ecology and society) the sustainability profile of different forest wood supply chains was analyzed on a case study basis. The following sustainability indicators were addressed: wood utilization rate, labor productivity, production cost, employment, wage level, rate of accidents, green house gas emissions, hazardous and non-hazardous waste and disturbed forest floor area disturbed. Four case studies were selected to represent and assess typical forest wood supply chains in Vietnam: Selective harvesting of natural (rain) forests on moderate and on steep terrain, Eucalyptus plantation forests harvested in a clear-cut method after short rotation, also on moderate and on steep terrain. The analyzed production chains started in the forest with preparing the stand and included all subsequent steps of wood procurement and transport, ending at the mill gate the of wood industries. Traditional technologies (manual labor, buffaloes) as well as partly mechanized systems (chainsaws, tractors, forwarders, trucks) were employed. Data collection was carried out in the field by extensive time studies of all processes, inquiries to managers and workers, and the use of statistics, literature and data banks. The two cases of selective harvesting of natural forests FWSC1 (steep terrain) and FWSC2 (moderate terrain) show that there was a significant difference of sustainability impacts between the two chains mainly due to the various operation methods applied in the logging and transport processes for each chain. In FWSC1 after felling, the logs were sawn into sawnwood by chainsaws directly in the forest at stump side with only 35.6% of the standing tree volume utilized. The boards 0.20-0.35 m3sw per board were extracted by buffaloes from the forest. In FWSC2, a tractor was used for roundwood skidding and following truck transport, the logs were sawn into boards at a local sawmill. The sawlog utilization rate was 66.6% of the standing tree volume of which 45.3% was utilized as sawnwood (27.2% higher than FWSC1) and 21.3% were sawing residues produced at the sawmill. A large amount of the whole tops and branches from logging were left in forests in the both chains. In FWSC1, up to 88.6% of the time consumption of the chainsaws was spent on board sawing, which resulted in a relatively low productivity of chainsaws with only 0.25 m3sw/PMacH for the activities from felling to the board sawing while a productivity of 0.12 m3sw/PAniH was measured for buffalo skidding. On the contrary, in FWSC2 the productivity of felling and delimbing at stump areas by chainsaw was rather high with 11.0 m3sw/PMacH, and a productivity of 6.7 m3rw/PMacH for the roundwood skidding by tractor TDT55 was measured. The resulting, production costs calculated for all the processes in FWSC1 were 50.40 €/m3sw, which was 44.4% higher than in FWSC2 with only 34.90 €/m3sw calculated for the processes until sawing board at the sawmill. However, regarding environmental aspects, FWSC1 with lower mechanization emitted lower GHG with 7.83 kgCO2eq/m3sw calculated to the sawmill, while in FWSC2, GHG emissions were much higher with 22.68 kgCO2eq/m3sw calculated including the board sawing operation at the sawmill. Also, the total disturbed area caused by the logging operations was almost the same in the two chains with 10.7% in FWSC1 and 12.8%. FWSC2 with a higher logging intensity and a higher level of mechanization caused 6.21% of heavy disturbed area while this was only 3.45% in FWSC1. The disturbed area of forest soil in FWSC2 is in the range of 10-25%, which is also reported for other conventional selective logging cases (FAO, 1989; Hendrison, 1989; Verissimo et al., 1992) but much larger than the disturbed area of only 3.8% and 4.5% caused by cases where the Reduced Impact Logging method (RIL) applied (FAO, 1997; Marsh et al., 1996). For the plantation chains FWSC3 (steep terrain) and FWSC4 (moderate terrain), which both applied th clear-cut method, the conditions for log skidding and transport were more favorable than in the two natural forest cases. The study results show that the roundwood utilization rate in plantations was relatively high with 79.8% in FWSC3 and 68.9% in FWSC4. Most of the tops and branches from logging were collected for firewood use although the DBH of the felled trees was much smaller than in the natural forest cases. The terrain slope had only a small effect on chainsaw productivity. The productivity in felling and bucking in FWSC3 with the steep terrain was 1.95 m3rw/PMacH while it was somewhat higher with 2.11 m3rw/PMacH in FWSC4 with the moderate terrain. Similarly, there were also small difference in skidding productivity between the two study cases with 0.26 m3rw/PManH in FWSC3 using manpower to roll logs on the steep terrain and 0.33 m3rw/PAniH in FWSC4, where buffaloes were used for skidding. The production costs of the two plantation chains varied with 10.36 €/m3rw calculated to the paper mill in FWSC3, where loading and unloading were mechanized by forwarder, while it was higher in FWSC4 with 11.70 €/m3rw at the paper mill. Due to the partly mechanized loading method applied, the total GHG emissions in FWSC3 calculated to the paper mill were 7.25 kgCO2eq/m3rw, while by using a manual loading method, FWSC4 emitted only 2.94 kgCO2eq/m3rw calculated to the paper mill from the chainsaws and trucks. On forest soil, where the clear felling method was used, the plantation chains caused a larger disturbed area with 34.7% of the total logging area in FWSC3 and 22.7% in FWSC4 compared to the selective felling in the natural FWSC1 and FWSC2. The results of the study show that in order to improve FWSCs towards more sustainability, a higher level of mechanization with more suitable machines is the first and key proposal, while training in occupational safety, closer supervision and inspection of logging activities, as well as the improvement of operational harvesting planning are needed for all four case studies. In addition, the utilization of branches, tops and other residues is also strongly recommended in natural forest cases. An example of the potentials of higher mechanization was further analyzed in more detail for the pulpwood supply in FWSC4. The results of the analysis show that under the current conditions in Vietnam, buffalo skidding and manual loading and unloading in FWSC4 could be replaced by a tractor-trailer crane system. A tractor of 60 hp plus a trailer equipped with a grapple is recommended for unfavourable forest conditions, such as the small DBH of trees and the small area of the harvesting unit in FWSC4. The total investment for the tractor and trailer crane would be less than 34,100 €, which would result in a total cost of the FWSC to the paper mill of about 14.81 €/m3rw without overloading in transport, which is 15.3% lower than with the current method. Considering social aspects, the introduction of a tractor-trailer system would reduce the employment rate from 13.90 hours/m3rw to 4.26 hours/m3rw, while increasing the wage of employees in extraction, loading and unloading from 3.37-4.29 €/shift to 7.14-17.85 €/shift in current FWSC4. There are a number of studies such as Ahmedabad (1975) and Sindhu and Grewal (1991) that have reported mechanization did not lead to a reduction in human employment rate due to an expansion in production and demand for manufacturing, servicing, distribution, repair and maintenance as well as other complementary jobs which substantially increased due to mechanization. The actual policy of the Vietnamese government aims at increasing the plantation area substantially, and by this, new jobs could compensate the negative employment effects of mechanization. Higher mechanization would require better training in occupational accidents and ergonomics, and better protection for workers by the use of necessary safety protection equipment and improved working conditions. This would improve the current situation of occupational accidents and other health risks for the employees. With regard to environmental issues, the use of the tractor-trailer system would emit 10.18 kgCO2eq/m3rw of GHG instead of 7.25 kgCO2eq/m3rw in the current chain. On the other hand, there are a number of studies such as FAO (1998); Malmer and Grip (1989); Wang (2000) concluding that using tractors for log extraction causes a more heavily disturbed area compared to manual and animal skidding. However, a number of studies reported that the negative impacts of mechanization in logging and transport on the environment could be minimized to an acceptable level if the operational harvesting is fully and carefully planned and supervised Becker (1987) and Lewark (1990). In order to achieve a higher level of mechanization, a project of mechanization in timber harvesting and transport as well as training programs in occupational safety and ergonomics should be considered. Harvesting units with a large area should be created to be suitable for mechanization. In addition, suitable policies supporting financial investments in the mechanization of the logging and transport sector should be promulgated, including reduced import taxes for appropriate forest and agricultural machines. The results of the study show ways and means to address the current international trend in the forest-wood sector towards sustainable management through the grant of forest certificates (such as FSC, PEFC, etc). To fulfill the environmental and social responsibility requirements of exported wood products, domestic forests must be managed and utilized in a sustainable way and thus be certified with special attention to the wood supply chains from forest to wood industry (To and Canby, 2011). The comprehensive assessment and understanding of the sustainability impacts of forest-wood supply chains is necessary and can be considered as the first and basic step towards providing solutions to improve current forest-wood supply practices in Vietnam towards more sustainability.

República Federal AlemanaLa República Federal Alemana es una república democrática, representativa, parlamentaria y federal, compuesta por 16 Estados. El parlamento es bicameral. El Bundestag o Asamblea Federal posee 598 miembros y el Bundesrat o Consejo Federal posee 69. El Poder Ejecutivo es ejercido por el Canciller Federal que es el Jefe de Gobierno.El país mantiene altos índices en materia de Estado de Derecho:Estado de derecho en Alemania(1)Observamos como en una perspectiva histórica de 15 años, los valores concernientes al Estado de Derecho se ubican en una posición constante de un percentil 94/100, lo que nos habla de un elevado índice de garantías políticas. Siguiendo a Bobbio, quién se funda en los principios de la ley natural de Locke, podemos afirmar en este caso la existencia de un verdadero imperio de la ley. La sociedad se compone de un 91.1% de alemanes, un 2,3% de turcos y kurdos, 0,7% de personas provenientes de la ex Yugoslavia, 0,7% de italianos, 0,4% de griegos y bosnios y 0,2% de gitanos. (2) En cuanto a religión, predominan la católica con un 33% y la protestante con un 32%, existiendo a su vez minorías judías y musulmanas (6% de la población). (3)Alemania ha sido escenario de abundantes inmigraciones, las cuales dejaron como consecuencia principal una serie de minorías que no pasaron desapercibidas a lo largo de su historia. En este sentido, es el tercer país en materia de recepción de migrantes. Una posible razón a este fenómeno es su posición liberal ante el asilo político que el Estado ha predicado desde siempre –incluso actualmente- ya que en el artículo 16a de su Constitución dispone que "todo perseguido político goza de derecho de asilo en Alemania". (4) Es interesante observar en este punto como el principio de defensa de los derechos inalienables del individuo poseen una implícita primacía por sobre los conceptos de Estado y nación. Es este un elemento que sustenta la intención de defender las garantías políticas de todo individuo que se vea privado de las mismas, aún cuando careciere de la nacionalidad alemana. Observamos entonces como subyace el principio filosófico de la teoría liberal de Locke. Destacamos, por otra parte, que en la actualidad Alemania es uno de los países europeos que más dificulta la inmigración –en circunstancias distintas a las previamente mencionadas- y la expedición de su nacionalidad. Dado la enorme complejidad de la persecución que históricamente han sufrido las minorías en Alemania, nos limitaremos a mencionar las cifras del holocausto llevado a cabo por el régimen Nazi: 11 millones de víctimas, de las que 6 millones eran ciudadanos polacos. Asimismo, además de los 6 millones de judíos, hubo 5 millones que incluían a afro-europeos, Testigos de Jehovah, discapacitados, homosexuales, gitanos, sacerdotes y líderes cristianos y perseguidos políticos opositores al sistema. (5) Destacamos este hecho histórico no sólo por la enorme relevancia que tiene en materia de Derechos Humanos y por constituir una atrocidad que ha calado hondo en la percepción del mundo sobre los alcances de la naturaleza humana, sino –y a los efectos de nuestro análisis- para plantear la evidente consecuencia de este fenómeno en nuestros tiempos. Persiste en la sociedad y gobierno alemán una suerte de cargo de conciencia, profundizado por el saberse moralmente reprobado y vigilado por el mundo entero. Esto obliga a tener una profunda y particular consideración para con el trato de las minorías en su país. Paso seguido, ¿Cuál es el papel de las minorías en términos de participación política? El sistema de representación alemán determina que sólo aquellos partidos "receiving more than 5% of the vote are represented in parliament in proportion to their vote." (6) En este sentido observamos su evidente consecuencia: "El establecimiento de dicho umbral logró reducir la oportunidad de representación de los partidos pequeños." (7) Esto obliga a generar un sistema de gobierno de coalición donde las minorías –que exceptuando a la suma de judíos y musulmanes no superan en ninguno de los casos el 5%- sólo podrían verse representados en función de negociaciones con los grandes partidos, donde su influencia o poder de imposición sería escaso –por no considerarlo nulo en términos relativos. El problema se ve incrementado por el escaso porcentaje de extranjeros nacionalizados y, por ende, poseyentes de derechos políticos. "Only a third of Turks have become German citizens, in part because dual citizenship is not allowed." (8) Esto, de acuerdo a la teoría del gobierno representativo de John Stuart Mill, caería dentro de lo que podría considerarse una deficiencia del sistema de representación. Sin embargo, queremos destacar que aún a pesar de lo que las cifras llevan a inducir, los resultados de las elecciones del 2005 determinan que "there were at least eight members of ethnic minorities in the Bundestag and one on the Federal Constitutional Court, but none in the cabinet." (9) Lo que nos habla de un sistema de representación que en cierta medida pudiere estar funcionando en la práctica. Otro problema radica en la pobre integración –particularmente de los turcos- ya que, como es señalado en un artículo The Economist, la población joven desconoce el alemán e intensifica sus prácticas religiosas –distantes a la tradición cristiana alemana- careciendo muchas veces, como señalábamos previamente, de la nacionalidad. Eso, producto también de las mayores trabas existentes para obtener la ciudadanía, en parte porque, como indica el artículo, "immigrants are welcome, but you also have to get to know our culture, says Wolfgang Schäuble, the interior minister, who rejects the growth of parallel societies." (10) En cierto sentido, buscando distanciarse de las llamadas falsas promesas de la democracia planteada por Bobbio. Esta es una de las causas de la complicada situación que persiste en materia de Derechos Humanos para con las minorías extranjeras (debidamente protegidas por la constitución alemana en su artículo 3 (11)), donde"harassment, including beatings, of foreigners and racial minorities remained a frequent problem throughout the country." (12) En relación a micro grupos operando organizadamente en materia de persecución política, el Departamento de Estado de los Estados Unidos sostiene que "the FCO defines politically motivated crimes as offenses related to the victims' ideology, nationality, ethnicity, race, skin color, religion, worldview, ancestry, sexual orientation, disability status, appearance, or social status. The FOPC report listed 180 right wing extremist organizations and groups." (13) Sin embargo, es necesario remarcar que el país se destaca por sus bajos índices de violencia y su buena estabilidad política (14): Estabilidad política y ausencia de violencia en Alemania (15) En esta línea, The Freedom House (16) posiciona a Alemania en un puntaje de 1 (valor que representa la escala máxima de libertad) en materia de libertades civiles y políticas. En su análisis se destaca particularmente el buen funcionamiento de las instituciones democráticas y el Estado de Derecho, aunque sugiere también un llamado de atención en materia de ataques a minorías étnicas y en lo que respecta a ciertas restricciones a la participación política: "Political pluralism in Germany has been constrained by laws restricting the far left and far right." (17) En lo que al Poder Judicial respecta, observamos que prevalece una estricta independencia amparada en la misma constitución, estableciendo explícitamente en su artículo 97 que "los jueces son independientes y están sometidos únicamente a la ley." (18) Esto, sumado a que "the government is free of pervasive corruption" (19) nos habla un funcionamiento democrático que se aleja en buena medida de las falsas promesas a la democracia planteadas en la teoría de Bobbio. En materia de libertad de expresión, también The Freedom House (20) ubica a Alemania entre los países considerados libres. Esto se fundamenta en su Constitución, donde se establece explícitamente en su artículo 5 que "No se ejercerá censura." (21) El análisis de The Freedom House lo posiciona como poseyente de una prensa diversa e independiente. Asimismo, dicho derecho se ve respaldado en el artículo 10 (22) de la European Convention on Human Right, considerado en Alemania ley federal. Por último, se observa que "Germany's government is accountable through open debates in parliament that are covered widely covered in the media" (23), indicios de una aproximación al debate público que pudiere dar origen a una suerte de democracia deliberativa. Sin embargo, pensamos que a la luz de la eficacia que en definitiva parecieran tener las instituciones democráticas en Alemania, sugerimos que quizá dicho camino democrático no sería –a la fecha- necesario.Estudio comparado Entendemos que en buena medida el estudio de cada uno de los casos ha permitido al lector generar una suerte de deducción en materia comparativa. Sin embargo, consideramos necesario remarcar algunos puntos del análsis comparativo e incorporar algunos detalles que pudieren servir en esta materia. Observamos entonces, en una primera lectura, cómo los indicadores marcan una importante diferencia en los factores que hacen a la gobernabilidad, inclinándose decididamente en favor de Alemania. Como estudiamos en cada caso, la posición de cada país en el Indice de Estado de Derecho elaborado por el Programa de Gobernabilidad del Banco Mundial ha sido debidamente estipulado. Mientras Turquía se posiciona en una escala media, Alemania prevalece en un percentil cercano al 100. Una situación similar se da en el Indice de Rendición de Cuentas, donde Alemania se encuentra por encima de 95/100 y Turquia por debajo de 50/100. Aquí, las respectivas Constituciones nos informan sobre el tratamiento en la materia: por un lado, Turquía mantiene un vocabulario amplio y vago que deviene en un Parlamento fuerte y centralizado, con posibilidad de ejercer presión sobre las instituciones en teoría independientes (por ejemplo, el Poder Jucidial y Consejo Supremo de Radio y Televisión) al tiempo que la arbitrariedad en materia de libertades fundamentales limita toda posibilidad de mecanismos de contralor o rendición de cuentas. Por su parte, en Alemania impera una Constitución clara y contundente, que garantiza tanto la independencia indiscutida de las instituciones como los mecanismos que determinan la efectividad en la rendición de cuentas. Por otro lado, nos remitimos al indicador más contundente en materia comparativa: el Indice de Estabilidad Política (Alemania alcanza 80/100 y Turquia 20/100). No profundizaremos particularmente en este concepto, porque entendemos ha sido debidamente considerado en cada uno de los estudios de caso. Sin embargo, es posible relacionar este indicador con lo que ocurre en materia de libertades y participación política.Por último, nos detenemos en lo que hace al control de la corrupción, elemento que incide notablemente en muchas de las falsas promesas propuestas por Bobbio. Aquí, Alemania obtien 90/100 y Turquia mejora su dsempeno relativo, alcanzando un indicador de 60/100. La enorme distancia que prevalece también en este sentido da fe del difícil camino que tiene Turquía por delante si se plantea seriamente reformar la efectividad de sus instituciones para generar un clima político acorde a su vecino europeo. Sólo de este modo podría garantizar las libertades fundamentales de todos los individuos que conforman su sociedad. Finalmente, en materia de libertad de expresión nos encontramos ante una Turquía que genera especial preocupación, particularmente en el trato con las minorías. Esto permite realizar una lectura entre líneas que determina la situación de persecución en que dicha población se encuentra, tal como ha sido estudiado con antelación.Consideraciones Finales La evidente distancia en materia de instituciones democráticas, Estado de Derecho y tratamiento de las minorías entre la República Federal Alemana y la República de Turquía dan fe de las dificultades que en definitiva enfrenta esta última ante la posibilidad de su eventual incorporación a la Unión Europea. Pareciere que Alemania ha asumido las lecciones del pasado en materia de protección de las libertades liberales, al tiempo que el camino emprendido por Turquía en la materia no parece estar dando los resultados esperados. Nos posicionamos, en este sentido, ante una Alemania libre y de instituciones independientes, con un clima político que posibilita un alto grado de inclusión, al menos desde la conformación de coaliciones políticas. Por otro lado, Turquía permanece en una posición de centralismo que limita enormemente la eficacia a la hora de garantizar la independencia de sus instituciones y las libertades de sus individuos. En un clima de alta corrupción, las falsas promesas de Bobbio afloran en una Turquía con una Constitución más asemejada a los procederes estipulados por Rousseau que a las libertades individuales articuladas por Locke, sin siquiera preservar el rousseauniano idealismo teórico a la hora de la procura de una voluntad generaldesinteresada e independiente. Con un vocabulario amplio y vago, la arbitrariedad es introducida de modo legal, coartando las libertades individuales que son consideradas fundamentales –e incluso previas al Estado- en la concepción liberal. Alemania, aún con algunas señales preocupantes en el trato de la población a las minorías étnicas, carece de estas penetrantes limitaciones que limitan a la democracia y oprimen a las minorías. El estudio comparado refleja una Turquía distante y ajena a los principios democrático-liberales en que está embebida Alemania, distancia que repercute directamente en las condiciones de vida y participación política de sus respectivas minorías. Una eventual Europa que incluyera a ambos gigantes sentiría en sus miembros la palpable distinción que persiste entre un individuo siervo, y un individuo en pleno ejercicio de su libertad. (1) WORLD BANK. (2) Valores aproximados: GUÍA DEL MUNDO: (3) GUÍA DEL MUNDO: (4) LEY FUNDAMENTAL DE LA REPÚBLICA FEDERAL DE ALEMANIA. (5) HOLOCAUST FORGOTTEN.(6) NEW ZEALAND ELECTION STUDIE. (7) Descripción del sistema de Representación Proporcional Mixto en Alemania. .pag 13(8) The Economist. 2007.(9) U.S. DEPATRTMENT OF STATE. 2008.(10) The Economist. 2007. (11) LEY FUNDAMENTAL DE LA REPÚBLICA FEDERAL DE ALEMANIA. (12) U.S. DEPATRTMENT OF STATE. 2008. (13) Íbid.(14) Debido a los antecedentes, los casos de violencia son tratados con especial cuidado, lo que no determina necesariamente que la violencia sea sistemática o que mantenga índices extravagantes.(15) WORLD BANK. (16) FREEDOM HOUSE.2005. (17) FREEDOM HOUSE.2005.(18) LEY FUNDAMENTAL DE LA REPÚBLICA FEDERAL DE ALEMANIA. (21) LEY FUNDAMENTAL DE LA REPÚBLICA FEDERAL DE ALEMANIA. (22) CONVENTION FOR THE PROTECTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS. 1950. (23) FREEDOM HOUSE.2005. *Estudiantes de la Licenciatura en Estudios Internacionales, FACS - Universidad ORT Uruguay.AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL. Informe 2011: El Estado de los Derechos Humanos en el Mundo. Disponible en internet: AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL. Turquía: libertad de expresión. Disponible en internet: ANMESTY INTERNATIONAL. 2007. Informe 2007: el estado de los derechos humanos en el mundo. Disponible en internet: BOBBIO, Norberto. 1986. Fondo de Cultura económica. México D.F. CENTRO DE INVESTIGACION Y DOCENCIA PARA AMÉRICA LATINA Y MEDIO ORIENTE. Los Kurdos en Turquía. Disponible en internet: CONVENTION FOR THE PROTECTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS. 1950. Disponible en internet: DAHL, Robert. 1989. Un prefacio a la teoría democrática. Argentina: Grupo Editor Latinoamericano.DERECHO CONSTITUCIONAL TURCO. 1982. Constitución de la República de Turquía. Disponible en internet : Descripción del sistema de Representación Proporcional Mixto en Alemania. Disponible en internet: EL MUNDO EN LÍNEA. Pueblos sin Estado: los kurdos, una nación partida sobre pozos de petróleo.Disponible en internet: EXTRA, Guus; GORTER, Durk (2001). The other languages of Europe: Demographic, Sociolinguistic and Educational Perspectives. Multilingual MattersFEDERACIO D´ASSOCIACIONS GITANES DE CATALUNYA. Proyecto Europeo. Disponible en internet: FIGUEROA, Manuel Ruiz. 2007. El islam y Occidente desde América Latina. México. FREEDOM HOUSE. 2005. Map of freedom in the world: Germany. Disponible en internet: FREEDOM HOUSE.2005. Map of press freedom. Disponible en Internet: FREEDOM HOUSE.2005. Country Report: Turkey. Disponible en internet: GLOBAL SECURITY. Military. Disponible en internet: GUÍA DEL MUNDO. 2007. Disponible en internet: GÜRBEY, Gülistan. 1996, The Kurdish Nationalist Movement in Turkey since the 1980s. Lexington, Ky. : University Press of Kentucky.HABERMAS, Jürgen. 1999. La inclusión del otro: estudios de teoría política. Barcelona: Paidós. HOLOCAUST FORGOTTEN. Holocaust: Non-Jewish Victims. Disponible en internet: La enseñanza del idioma kurdo en Turquía : una reivindicación legítima y justa.2010. Disponible en internet: LA INSIGNIA. 2005. Derechos Humanos. Turquía: AI pide la derogación del artículo 301 del Código Penal. Disponible en internet: LE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUE. El Atlas III. Un mundo al revés. De la hegemonía occidental al poli-centrismo. Capital intelectual. 2009. LEY FUNDAMENTAL DE LA REPÚBLICA FEDERAL DE ALEMANIA. Disponible en internet: LOCKE, John. 1664. La ley de la naturaleza. Madrid: Editorial tecnos.MILL, John Stuart. 1985. Del gobierno representativo. Madrid:Tecnos. Minorities in Germany: The integration dilemma. 2007. En: The Economist. Disponible en internet: NACIONES UNIDAS. Declaración de los Derechos Humanos. Preámbulo. Disponible en internet: NEW ZEALAND ELECTION STUDIE. Minority Representation, Empowerment,NEWSWEEK. The World`s Best Countries. Diponible en internet: NÚÑEZ DE PRADO, Sara. Minorías nacionales y medios de comunicación: una visión de Europa. Disponible en internet: PETTIGREW, Thomas: "Reactions toward the New Minorities of Western Europe". Annual Review of Sociology. Vol. 24, 1998.ROUSSEAU, Jean-Jacques. El contrato social o principios de derecho político. Editorial tecnos. 1988, original en 1762. Madrid. Traducción de María José Villaverde. Pág. 34.THE CONSTITUTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY. Disponible en internet: TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL. Corruption Perceptions Index 2005. Disponible en internet: U.S. DEPATRTMENT OF STATE. 2008. Humans Right Report: Germany. Disponible en internet: VELASCO, Juan Carlos (2009). Democracia y deliberación pública. Confluencia XXI. Revista de Pensamiento Político. México.WAGMAN, Daniel. Integración e inmigración. Disponible en internet: http://www.fongdcam.org/manuales/educacionintercultural/datos/docs/ActoresyEscenarios/Actores/GrupoSociales/IntegracioneInmigracionT67.pdfWHITE, Jenny B. : "Turks in the New Germany". American Anthropologist, New Series, Vol 99, número 4, Diciembre 1997. WORLD BANCK. Country Data Report for TURKEY, 1996-2009. Disponible en internet: WORLD BANK. Country Data Report for GERMANY, 1996-2009. Disponible en internet: ZERAOUI, Zidane. 2000. El dilema Kurdo. Editorial Limusa S.A

The principal purpose of this Global Program Review (GPR) is to learn lessons from the experience of the Global Fund and its interaction with the Bank in three areas: (a) the design and operation of large global partnership programs like the Global Fund that are financing country-level investments, (b) the engagement of the World Bank with these partnership programs, and (c) the evaluation of these programs. The Review has an intensive focus on the Bank's engagement with the Global Fund at the country level because of the potential for competition or collaboration between Global Fund-supported activities and the Bank's lending operations at the country level. Therefore, it also focuses on the design and operation of the Global Fund-supported activities at the country level. This review was initiated before the high-level independent review panel on fiduciary controls and oversight mechanisms of the Global Fund was commissioned in February 2011, and it was drafted before their final report, turning the page from emergency to sustainability, was issued on September 19, 2011. While the two studies are complementary and overlap to some extent, they were conducted independently of each other, for different audiences, and for different purposes.

While diversification of exports is often a desirable trade objective, it is far from clear how best to tap into new opportunities. This paper discusses the range of avenues of diversification, including (i) expanding the range of markets into which existing products are sold (geographic diversification); (ii) upgrading the value of existing products, including agricultural exports (quality diversification); and (iii) taking advantage of opportunities to expand non-merchandise exports (services diversification), in addition to introducing entirely new export products. All offer opportunities for cost?effective positive policies relating to the incentive regime, backbone services, and export support institutions.