Suchergebnisse

Internal divisions under the Zia regime; tensions in relations with the Soviet Union and India.

WHEN SURVEYING THE OPTIONS AVAILABLE FOR THE SETTLEMENT OF THE LONG-STANDING FALKLANDS DISPUTE, THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE SHOULD NOT, INDEED CANNOT, BE IGNORED, ESPECIALLY AS EVEN THE EVENTS OF 1982 ARE HISTORY NOW. SHACKLED BY HISTORY-BOUND BY PAST COMMITMENTS AND RIVAL VERSIONS OF THE FALKLANDS PAST -BOTH DISPUTANTS HAVE POSSESSED LITTLE ROOM FOR COMPROMISE, THEREBY HINDERING THE PROSPECTS FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT. THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, DEFINED AS A VIEWPOINT TAKING ACCOUNT OF BOTH BRITISH AND ARGENTINE VERSIONS OF THE PAST, MUST BE INTEGRATED INTO ANY DEBATE ON THE FUTURE; THUS, 'GOING FORWARD WITH HISTORY' SHOULD BE AN ESSENTIAL PART OF ANY INFORMED AND OBJECTIVE APPRAISAL OF THE FALKLANDS FUTURE, ALONG WITH SUCH CONSIDERATIONS AS INTERNATIONAL, MILITARY AND GEOGRAPHICAL REALITIES. CLEARLY, A RANGE OF POLICY OPTIONS EXIST, AND EACH ONE INVOLVES ITS OWN COSTS AND BENEFITS. PERHAPS, AS THIS AUTHOR ARGUED IN 1981-82, A LEASE-BACK SCHEME REMAINS THE MOST ACCEPTABLE MANNER OF RECONCILING THE VARIOUS PROBLEMS, FOR ARGENTINA WILL SECURE SOVEREIGNTY, WHILE THE ISLANDERS WILL RETAIN BRITISH ADMINISTRATION. BUT, EVEN A LEASE-BACK SCHEME FAILS TO OFFER A FINAL SOLUTION, AND THE EXAMPLE OF HONG KONG DURING 1983 DEMONSTRATES THE PROBLEM OF WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE LEASE EXPIRES. AT LEAST, A LEASE WILL PROVIDE AN INTERIM SOLUTION, AND THIS MIGHT PROVE THE MOST REALISTIC GOAL AT THE PRESENT STAGE OF THE ANGLO-ARGENTINE RELATIONSHIP. IN TIME, A MORE DURABLE SOLUTION MIGHT BECOPY: 1984

THE CONJECTURE THAT PROJECTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY DEPRESS VOTER TURNOUT IS MORE INTERESTING THAN AT FIRST MIGHT APPEAR, BECAUSE IT PRESUPPOSES THAT THE DECISION TO VOTE IS WELL UNDERSTOOD. MANY STUDENTS OF PUBLIC CHOICE WOULD SHY AWAY FROM THIS PRESUPPOSITION. IF PERSONS VOTE BECAUSE THEY HOPE POSSIBLY TO ALTER THE OUTCOME OF AN ELECTION, OR IF THEY VOTE BECAUSE THEY FIND PARTICIPATION IN THE POLITICAL COMPETITION TO BE ENTERTAINING, THEN EARLY PROJECTIONS MAY BE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TURNOUT. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF PERSONS VOTE IN ORDER TO INFLUENCE THE SIZE OF THE VICTOR'S MANDATE, OR IF THEY VOTE OUT OF A SENSE OF CIVIC DUTY, THEN IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR THAT TURNOUT WILL BE AFFECTED.