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Using a conflict transformation framework, this article demonstrates that positive transformations have taken place in the South China Sea between 1991 and 2007. Even though these transformations have been weakened in recent years, particularly regarding the actor aspect, it is concluded that a major armed conflict is still highly unlikely. ; ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: May/June 2015 / Copyright © 2015 University of California Press

China's strategic capabilities and doctrine have historically differed from the United States' and Russia's. China has continued to modernize and expand its arsenal despite its policy of no first use, while the United States and Russia have decreased deployed weapons stocks. This volume brings together an international group of distinguished scholars to provide a fresh assessment of China's strategic military capabilities, doctrines, and political perceptions in light of rapidly advancing technologies, an expanding and modernizing nuclear arsenal, and an increased great-power competition with the United States. Analyzing China's strategic arsenal is critical for a deeper understanding of China's relations with both its neighbors and the world. Without a doubt, China's arsenal is growing in size and sophistication, but key uncertainties also lie ahead. Will China's new capabilities and confidence lead it to be more assertive and take more risks? Will China's nuclear traditions change as the strategic balance improves? Will China's approach to military competition be guided by a notion of strategic stability or not? Will there be a strategic arms race with the United States? China's Strategic Arsenal provides a current understanding of these issues as we strive for a stable strategic future with China.

Corpus Christi, Corpus Delicti: A new narrative contract. Władysław Pasikowski's Aftermath (2012) and the invalidation of the category of the Polish Witness to the HolocaustWładysław Pasikowski's 2012 feature film Aftermath recapitulates and works through the existing resources in documentary cinema that deals with the Polish context of the Holocaust (Claude Lanzmann, Paweł Łoziński, Marian Marzyński, Agnieszka Arnold). It is also founded on the knowledge amassed in the wake of the countrywide debate about the 1941 Jedwabne massacre (2000–1). As such, it rejects the majority narrative of the Holocaust, one told under the banners of the Righteous Among the Nations (the paradigm of innocence), the Polish witness to the Holocaust (triggering an unjustified identification of the Jaspersian paradigm of unimputable, metaphysical guilt with unwarranted guilt), and the alleged collective Polish trauma of the Holocaust.Aftermath is analyzed as a treatise on antisemitism which problematizes and narrativizes phantasms that are central to this socio-cultural pathology, visualizing the mechanism whereby the phantasm of the Jew is constructed and imposed on actual individuals. It also touches upon the Christian roots and identitarian dimension of antisemitism, alongside its central figure: the Crucifixion. Antisemitism is a matter of religion as a doctrine but also religion as an institution.By displaying a plexus of discourses and practices, attitudes and behaviors, Pasikowski defends the great quantifier as a legitimate category to describe the Polish context of the Holocaust. He debunks the essential differentiation between pre-modern and modern antisemitism (including notions about the secondary nature of Polish antisemitism in relation to the German Nazi exterminatory projects targeted at the Jews).The film convincingly portrays antisemitism as dominating the experience and its representation to such an extent that antisemitic culture loses the ability to reflect on the human condition. Where a non-antisemite sees the irreducible strangeness that is inherent to individual existence, the antisemite sees a Jew, etc. The long duration of violence and exclusion has turned the phantasmic and alternative reality of antisemitism into reality tout court, as it produces a materiality of its own, up to and including the materiality of the atrocity (stolen property, looted corpses, etc.).The text offers an extensive discussion of the essential conflict between Aftermath and the system of Polish culture. The aesthetic is political. The juxtaposition of two genre films (the thriller and the Western) and a plebeian protagonist with a domain that is perceived as proper to the intelligentsia provoked widespread shock and rejection. Accusations of kitsch, exaggeration, improbability, and a colonial gaze enabled critics to sidestep, if not invalidate, the director's argument. A study of the reception of Aftermath is a study of class distinction in action.Pasikowski's film portrays antisemitism as a problem of an antisemitic culture and an antisemitic society. This entails a radical invalidation of the notion of antisemitism as an inter-group conflict, thus exposing the fiction and falsehood of such constructs as "dialogue" and "reconciliation."Despite its pessimistic diagnosis, Aftermath raises the possibility of change and the emancipatory potential of self-empowerment. By considering the cultural and social implications of our knowledge about antisemitism and the Polish context of the Holocaust, the film reveala systemic challenge posed by the imperative to revise culture and reject its toxic models. From this perspective, a new narrative becomes possible as a critique of narratives. Corpus Christi, corpus delicti – nowy kontrakt narracyjny. Pokłosie (2012) Władysława Pasikowskiego wobec kompromitacji kategorii polskiego świadka ZagładyFilm fabularny Pokłosie (2012) Władysława Pasikowskiego przynosi rekapitulację i przepracowanie dotychczasowych zasobów kina dokumentalnego dotyczącego polskiego kontekstu Zagłady (C. Lanzmann, P. Łoziński, M. Marzyński, A. Arnold). Ufundowany jest także na wiedzy narosłej po debacie jedwabieńskiej (2000) oraz na odrzuceniu dotychczasowych dominujących większościowych narracji o Zagładzie: spod znaku Sprawiedliwych (paradygmat niewinności) i spod znaku polskiego świadka Zagłady (paradygmat Jaspersowskiej winy niezarzucanej oraz zbiorowej polskiej traumy Zagłady).Tekst proponuje spojrzenie na Pokłosie jako traktat o antysemityzmie, który problematyzuje i narratywizuje fantazmaty oraz mechanizmy kluczowe dla tej społeczno-kulturowej patologii. Wizualizacja obejmuje mechanizm konstruowania fantazmatu Żyda i nakładania go na realne podmioty. Nie omija też chrześcijańskich korzeni i tożsamościowego wymiaru antysemityzmu z centralną figurą Ukrzyżowania. Antysemityzm jest sprawą religii jako doktryny, ale też instytucji.Unaoczniając splot dyskursów i praktyk, postaw i zachowań, Pasikowski broni wielkiego kwantyfikatora jako zasadnej kategorii opisu polskiego kontekstu Zagłady. Obala też istotowe rozgraniczenie między antysemityzmem przednowoczesnym i nowoczesnym (w tym wyobrażenie o podrzędności polskiego antysemityzmu względem niemieckiego nazistowskiego przedsięwzięcia eksterminacyjnego wymierzonego w Żydów).Film w przekonujący sposób pokazuje, że antysemityzm do tego stopnia zawładnął doświadczeniem i jego reprezentacją, że kultura antysemicka straciła możliwość dostępu do namysłu nad ludzką kondycją. Tam, gdzie nieantysemita widzi nieredukowalną obcość przyrodzoną jednostkowej egzystencji, antysemita widzi Żyda etc. Długie trwanie przemocy i wykluczenia sprawia, że z rzeczywistości fantazmatycznej i alternatywnej antysemityzm staje się rzeczywistością tout court. Wytwarza bowiem własną materialność, do materialności zbrodni włącznie.Tekst obszernie omawia istotowy konflikt Pokłosia z systemem kultury polskiej. Estetyczne jest polityczne. Połączenie kina podwójnie gatunkowego (thriller, western) oraz plebejskiego bohatera z domeną uchodzącą za inteligencki monopol wywołało w większości szok i odrzucenie. Zarzuty – kiczu, przesady, braku prawdopodobieństwa, kolonialnego spojrzenia – pozwoliły w dużym stopniu wyminąć, jeśli nie unieważnić, rozpoznania reżysera. Studium recepcji Pokłosia to studium dystynkcji klasowej w działaniu.Film Pasikowskiego pokazuje antysemityzm jako problem kultury antysemickiej i antysemickiego społeczeństwa. Oznacza to radykalną kompromitację wyobrażenia antysemityzmu jako konfliktu międzygrupowego, czego konsekwencją jest obnażenie fałszu i fikcji konstruktów takich, jak "dialog" i "pojednanie".Mimo pesymistycznej diagnozy społecznej, Pokłosie wskazuje na możliwość zmiany i potencjał emancypacji tkwiący w samoupodmiotowieniu. Podejmując refleksję nad tym, co wynika dla kultury i społeczeństwa z wiedzy na temat antysemityzmu i polskiego kontekstu Zagłady, film wskazuje na wyzwanie systemowe w postaci imperatywu rewizji kultury i odrzucenia jej toksycznych wzorów. W tym świetle nowa narracja staje się możliwa – jako krytyka narracji.

U fokusu ovog rada je aktuelna politička situacija u Bosni i Hercegovini, s posebnim naglaskom na Republiku Srpsku povodom koje se, i u kojoj se, vode dva suprotstavljena (geo)politička procesa. Prvi, kojeg karakterišu permanentni pritisci Zapada, te predstavnika FBiH (više Bošnjaka nego Hrvata), na Republiku Srpsku i njen dejtonski, ustavni položaj u okviru državne zajednice Bosne i Hercegovine, i drugi, koji predstavlja borbu Republike Srpske za svoj autonomni položaj u okviru dejtonske BiH. Ove dve (geo)politike predstavljaju i glavninu sadržaja ovog članka. Kad je reč o prvom procesu, navedeni su ključni primeri i izvršena detaljna analiza kontinuiranih pritisaka, osporavanja, kao i sankcija prema Republici Srpskoj i njenim političkim predstavnicima od strane Zapada, naročito visokog predstavnika UN za BiH (svih sedam – nekog više, nekog manje) i nametnutih antidejtonskih i antiustavnih institucija, kao što je Ustavni sud BiH, gde su se na osnovu brojčane većine stranih i bošnjačkih sudija, pod maskom primene Dejtonskog sporazuma, potvrđivali zakoni i odluke visokog predstavnika o oduzimanju dejtonskih, ustavnih nadležnosti Republike Srpske i donosile odluke koje su išle u prilog bošnjačke vizije centralizovane, unitarne BiH. Prema srpskom viđenju, epilog ovih poteza bio bi razvlašćivanje i ukidanje Republike Srpske. Ovakav trend "kreativne primene Dejtona", naročito je intenziviran donošenjem tzv. Inckovog zakona o negiranju genocida, koji korespondira sa dolaskom na vlast američkog predsednika Bajdena i njegovim stavom da se "dovrši" posao na Balkanu – konačnim otimanjem Kosova od Srbije i ukidanjem Republike Srpske. Sa tim ciljem, krenuli su američki emisari i pojačan je diplomatski, psihološki, politički i svaki drugi pritisak na predstavnike Srpske, prevashodno na Dodika, ali i na rukovodstvo u Beogradu. Predstavnici FBiH, pogotovo bošnjački, u nedostatku "dejtonskih" argumenata, u sili Zapadnih "argumenata" vide način za ostvarenje svoje državne vizije – "celovite", "jedinstvene" – dakle antidejtonske, antiustavne i unitarne BiH. Srpska se na adekvatan, demokratski način, suprotstavlja antitejtonskim i antiustavnim merama. Narodna skupština RS stavila je van snage brutalni "Inckov zakon" i donela zakon protiv omalovažavanja Srpske; odbila je da prihvati novog tzv. visokog predstavnika (Kristijan Šmit), koji nije dobio saglasnost Rusije i Kine u SB UN, kao ni u Upravnom odboru PIK-a (ruski ambasador nije glasao). Takođe, u Narodnoj skupštini RS otpočeo je proces ukidanja svih zakona kojima su otimane nadležnosti Republike Srpske i prenošene na BiH. Republika Srpska dakle ne želi secesiju, ali čvrsto stoji na braniku svoje dejtonske i ustavne pozicije. Zahteva da se, kad vrati svoje državne nadležnosti na nivo "slova" Dejtona, kroz unutrašnji dijalog, bez prisustva spoljnih medijatora (što Bošnjaci odbijaju), nađe rešenje. U protivnom – rešenje je mirni razlaz. Treba ukazati da ovaj proces dejtonskog ili, eventualno, državno – nezavisnog pozicioniranja Republike Srpske podrazumeva nekoliko uslova: pre svega političko jedinstvo u Srpskoj, saglasnost i podršku rukovodstva Srbije, što se sve skupa temelji na jedinstvu srpskog naroda u celini, te pouzdane i moćne saveznike, kao što su Rusija i Kina, a to znači povoljnu globalnu geopolitičku konstelaciju.

"The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is one of China's most strategically important, resource-rich and largest regions but also one of the country's most troublesome, the region now being synonymous with ethnic conflict and nationalist movements. This detailed and compelling study sets out to explore how the Chinese government has governed Xinjiang in light of growing tensions in the region exploring initiatives such as the partner assistance programme to understand the extent to which attempts to reverse the deteriorating situation have been effective. Furthermore, this study also provides compelling insights into how policies vary in different regions, focusing in particular on the role played by officials in interpreting and implementing these policies within their specific locale. It shows that Communist Party strategy and policy become messy when introduced at a micro-level as local governments interpret how these policies should work within their particular region. As such, this text is invaluable to students and scholars of policy-making and implementation in China"--

This anthology takes up the subject of border areas and contact zones, both as actual places and as analytical concepts for understanding the past. What happens when different cultures, states and people meet, and what happens in and to the places and spaces where such meetings occur? These are among the questions that are elucidated in nine investigations that deal with several different examples from history, from the very concrete to the more metaphorical, and spanning macro to micro scales of study.

The nine contributions range, in terms of time, from the transition from the Middle Ages to the early modern age at the beginning of the 16th century, up to our own era. Geographically, the investigations concentrate on three areas. One is the Nordic region: geographical and cultural contact zones are examined within and between the different Nordic countries. Several contributions deal with the period when Norway was part of a larger northern European composite state, Denmark-Norway. The second area is the Middle East. Here, both the royal court as a contact zone in the Ottoman Empire is discussed, as well as contact and conflict in the Kurdish border countries during the 2000s. The last area is the American Midwest. The chapters covering this region focus particularly on Norwegian immigrant communities in the United States, with detours to other parts of the world such as China and Troms in Norway.

In all these time periods and geographical regions, the different encounters, contact and negotiations that took place between various actors and groups in both actual and metaphorical border areas are examined.

This anthology originated with a research group in the Department of History at Volda University College and is also a tribute in honor of department's 50th anniversary. It is mainly aimed at researchers and students in history, but may also be of interest to those working related fields such as religion, sociology or legal history, or general readers interested in history and culture. - Tema for denne antologien er grenseområder og kontaktsoner, både som konkrete steder og som analytiske begreper for å forstå fortiden. Hva skjer når ulike kulturer, stater og mennesker møtes, og hva skjer i og med stedene og rommene der disse møtene skjer? Dette er blant spørsmålene som blir belyst i ni historiske undersøkelser som tar for seg flere forskjellige eksempler fra historien, fra det helt konkrete til det mer metaforiske, og fra stor skala til nærstudier.

I tid spenner de ni bidragene fra overgangen fra middelalderen til tidlig nytid på begynnelsen av 1500-tallet helt frem til vår tid. Geografisk er undersøkelsene konsentrert om tre områder. Det ene er Norden. Her undersøkes både geografiske og kulturelle kontaktsoner både innad i og mellom ulike nordiske land. Flere av bidragene tar for seg perioden da Norge var del av en større nordeuropeisk konglomeratstat, Danmark-Norge. Det andre området er Midtøsten. Her omtales både hoffet som kontaktsone i Det osmanske riket og kontakt og konflikt i de kurdiske grenselandene på 2000-tallet. Det siste området er Midtvesten. Disse kapitlene har et særlig søkelys på det norske utvandrersamfunnet i Nord-Amerika, med avstikkere til andre deler av verden som Kina og indre Troms i Norge.

I alle disse periodene og områdene undersøkes møter, kontakter og forhandlinger mellom aktører og grupper som foregikk i konkrete og metaforiske grenseområder, hvor det var ulike former for kontakt mellom aktører.

Denne antologien springer ut fra forskningsmiljøet ved Historisk institutt ved Høgskulen i Volda og er også en markering av dette instituttets 50-årsjubileum. Den retter seg hovedsakelig mot forskere og studenter innen historie, men kan også være av interesse for nærliggende fagfelt som religion, sosiologi eller rettshistorie, eller andre lesere som er allment interessert i historie og kulturmøter.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001 in Shanghai, with PR China, The Russian Federation, The Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, The Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan as members, and India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan as observers, is new, but very important security and economic organizational frame in Central and East Asia. During the last six years of its existence the Organization grew stronger, as well as the development of relations among the member states in numerous fields - from border demarcation issues and common border surveillance, common response to traditional and non-traditional security threats, to political cooperation, co-op in culture, education, trade agriculture, transportation, transport infrastructure, investment especially in the field of exploration, exploitation and transit of oil and gas. With the growing influence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a successful framework for the confidence building in the region, development of various ways of cooperation, firstly economic and security ones, but on the principles of the equal footing and respect for differences among cultures and models and paths of development of its members, influence and respect for the Organization has been growing in the region and globally. Since the strong presence of the USA and NATO in the region, especially since the invasion of Afghanistan, the role of the SCO has significantly changed and been challenged. So far, it has found the way to respond through deepening its cooperation and building its institutional base. Nonetheless due to the exceptional geopolitical sensitivity of the region, numerous inherited and existing contradictions, the Organization, beyond its huge economic perspective, especially in the fields of energy, traffic infrastructure and trade, has to count on serous limitations and challenges in its future. On the other hand, it has already become security, political and economic factor in the region, counted on by all the other regional and global geopolitical players. ; Šangajska organizacija za saradnju (ŠOS), osnovana 2001. godine u Šangaju čije su članice NR Kina, Rusija, Kazahstan, Kirgistan, Tadžikistan i Uzbekistan, a posmatrači: Iran, Indija, Mongolija i Pakistan, nov je, ali i izuzetno značajan bezbednosno-ekonomski oblik organizovanja u centralnoj i istočnoj Aziji. Tokom šest godina postojanja došlo je do jačanja Organizacije, kao i razvoja odnosa između svih članica u brojnim oblastima - od utvrđivanja međudržavnih razgraničenja i zajedničkog nadgledanja granice zajedničkog odgovora na tradicionalne i netradicionalne bezbednosne pretnje političke saradnje, saradnje u oblasti kulture, obrazovanja, do trgovine poljoprivrede, transporta, transportne infrastrukture, investicija, a naročito u oblasti istraživanja, eksploatacije i prenosa nafte i gasa. S rastom uticaja Šangajske organizacija za saradnju kao uspešnog okvira za izgradnju poverenja u regionu, razvijanje brojnih vidova saradnje, a najpre ekonomske i bezbednosne, na principima ravnopravnosti i uvažavanja različitosti kultura i modela i puteva razvoja članica, rastao je i njen ugled u regionu i globalno. Od snažnog prisustva SAD i NATO u regionu naročito od invazije na Avganistan, uloga ŠOS je doživela značajan preobražaj, ali i jedan od najvećih izazova, na koji je, zasad, našla načina da odgovori kroz produbljivanje saradnje i izgradnju institucionalnog okvira. Ipak, s obzirom na izuzetnu geopolitičku osetljivost regiona, brojne nasleđene i postojeće protivrečnosti, Organizacija, pored izuzetne ekonomske perspektive, naročito u oblasti energenata, saobraćajne infrastrukture i trgovine, u svom budućem razvoju mora da računa i s ozbiljnim ograničenjima i izazovima. S druge strane, ona je već postala bezbednosni, politički i ekonomski faktor u regionu, na koji svaki od prisutnih aktera regionalnih ali i globalnih geopolitičkih dešavanja računa.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001 in Shanghai, with PR China, The Russian Federation, The Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, The Republic of Tajikistan and the Republic of Uzbekistan as members, and India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan as observers, is new, but very important security and economic organizational frame in Central and East Asia. During the last six years of its' existence the Organization grew stronger, as well as development of relations among the member states in numerous fields - from border demarcation issues and common border surveillance, common respond to traditional and non-traditional security threats, to political cooperation, co-op in culture, education, trade agriculture, transportation, transport infrastructure, investment, especially in the field of exploration, exploitation and transit of oil and gas. With the growing influence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as successful framework for the confidence building in the region, development of various ways of cooperation, firstly economic and security ones, but on the principles of the equal footing and respect for differences among cultures and models and paths of development of its' members, influence and respect for the Organization has been growing in the region and globally. Since the strong presence of the USA and NATO in the region, especially since the invasion of Afghanistan, the role of the SCO has significantly changed, and been challenged. So far, it has found the way to respond through deepening its' cooperation and building its' institutional base. Nonetheless, because of the exceptional geopolitical sensitivity of the region, numerous inherited and existing contradictions, the Organization, beyond its huge economic perspective, especially in the fields of energy, traffic infrastructure and trade, has to count on serous limitations and challenges in its' future. On the other hand, it has already become security, political and economic factor in the region, counted on by all the other regional and global geopolitical players. ; Šangajska organizacija za saradnju (ŠOS), osnovana 2001. godine u Šangaju čije su članice NR Kina, Rusija, Kazahstan, Kirgistan, Tadžikistan, i Uzbekistan, a posmatrači: Iran, Indija, Mongolija i Pakistan, nov je, ali i izuzetno značajan bezbednosno-ekonomski oblik organizovanja u Centralnoj i istočnoj Aziji. Tokom šest godina postojanja došlo je do jačanja Organizacije, kao i razvoja odnosa između svih članica u brojnim oblastima - od utvrđivanja međudržavnih razgraničenja i zajedničkog nadgledanja granice zajedničkog odgovora na tradicionalne i netradicionalne bezbednosne pretnje političke saradnje, saradnje u oblasti kulture, obrazovanja, do trgovine poljoprivrede, transporta, transportne infrastrukture, investicija, a naročito u oblasti istraživanja, eksploatacije i prenosa nafte i gasa. Sa rastom uticaja Šangajske organizacija za saradnju kao uspešnog okvira za izgradnju poverenja u regionu, razvijanje brojnih vidova saradnje, a najpre ekonomske i bezbednosne, na principima ravnopravnosti i uvažavanja različitosti kultura i modela i puteva razvoja članica rastao je i njen ugled u regionu i globalno. Od snažnog prisustva SAD i NATO u regionu, naročito od invazije na Avganistan, uloga ŠOS je doživela značajan preobražaj, ali i jedan od najvećih izazova, na koji je, za sada našla načina da odgovori kroz produbljivanje saradnje i izgradnju institucionalnog okvira. Ipak, s obzirom na izuzetnu geopolitičku osetljivost regiona, brojne nasleđene i postojeće protivrečnosti, Organizacija, pored izuzetne ekonomske perspektive, naročito u oblasti energenata, saobraćajne infrastrukture i trgovine, u svom budućem razvoju mora da računa i sa ozbiljnim ograničenjima i izazovima. Sa druge strane, ona je već postala bezbednosni, politički i ekonomski faktor u regionu, na koji svaki od prisutnih aktera regionalnih, ali i globalnih geopolitičkih dešavanja računa.

Negative sexuality as a passive social attitude Negative sexuality is a sexuality that isn't a part of feeling of identity and self-acceptance. It is burdened with feelings of shame, guilt and threat. In Polish society there is an atmosphere of negative sexuality. There is a lack of tolerance towards diversity and sexual freedom, understood as free expression of the self. It is a situation which threatens the psychological well-being. The deprecation and normativization of human sexuality is ensnarled in relations of power which petrify the social status quo. That leads to totalitarian management of our sexuality and maintenance of that status due to psychological mechanisms of submitting to totalitarian powers. To show these processes I refer to such thinkers as Michel Foucault, Erich Fromm, Theodor Adorno, Wilhelm Reich and Karen Horney.Such reality is also a result of social processes which shaped it. Influential here were the processes related to power and culture. Negative templates have been present in our culture for long time, a fact which I exemplify by analyzing Polish culture through the Polish cinema of the People's Republic period. Today, passive social attitudes have resulted in continued cultivating of these negative social norms.I show alternatives to the atmosphere of negative sexuality, describing the movement for positive sexuality and its benefits for psychological health of individuals and society. While I throw doubt on the possibility of a popularization of queer theory in Poland, I also show some universal strategies of resistance against those exercising power over human sexuality. I describe the phenomenon of bioresistance and freeing physicality drawing on the example of works by Krzysztof Pacewicz about the theories of Michel Foucault and Giorgio Agamben. In more practical terms, I analyze the present condition of sexual education anti-discrimination movements in Poland.In my work I want to show that a sexually positive life attitude, which means a life of acceptance of oneself and others and creation of a nonviolent space, enables universal self-acceptance and self-development. It is also a proactive social attitude because it requires intellectual and political involvement in regard to emerging reality. I believe that positive sexuality supported by positive sex-ed and social involvement is a very important element of resistance against power relations. Negatywna seksualność jako bierna postawa społecznaNegatywna seksualność to seksualność, która nie składa się na poczucie tożsamości i samoakceptacji. Jest obarczona wstydem, poczuciem winy i zagrożenia. W polskim społeczeństwie panuje atmosfera negatywnej seksualności. Brak jest tolerancji dla różnorodności i wolności seksualnej rozumianej jako swobodna ekspresja siebie. Jest to sytuacja, która zagraża dobrostanowi psychicznemu. Deprecjonowanie i normatywizowanie ludzkiej seksualności jest uwikłane w relacje władzy, które petryfikują dany stan społeczny. Prowadzi to do totalitarnego zagospodarowania naszej seksualności i utrzymywania tego stanu dzięki psychicznym mechanizmom ulegania władzy totalitarnej. By pokazać te procesy, przywołuję myślicieli i myślicielki takie jak Michel Foucault, Erich Fromm, Theodor Adorno, Wilhelm Reich i Karen Horney.Taka rzeczywistość jest też rezultatem procesów społecznych, które ją ukształtowały. Miały na to wpływ procesy związane z władzą i kulturą. Negatywne wzorce są obecne w naszej kulturze od dawna. Polską kulturę analizuję przez pryzmat kina polskiego epoki PRL-u. Kultywowanie tych negatywnych norm społecznych to bierna postawa społeczna.Pokazuję alternatywy dla atmosfery negatywnej seksualności. Opisuję ruch pozytywnej seksualności i jego zalety dla zdrowia psychicznego jednostki i społeczeństwa.Poddaję w wątpliwość możliwość popularyzowania teorii queer w Polsce. Pokazuję pewne uniwersalne strategie oporu wobec władzy nad ludzką seksualnością. Opisuję zjawisko biooporu i uwalniania cielesności na przykładzie pracy Krzysztofa Pacewicza o teoriach Michela Foucaulta i Giorgio Agambena. Analizuję kondycję edukacji seksualnej i ruchów antydyskryminacyjnych w Polsce w czasie teraźniejszym.Moja praca ma pokazać, że sekspozytywna postawa życiowa, czyli akceptacja siebie i innych oraz tworzenie bezprzemocowej przestrzeni umożliwia powszechną samoakceptację i samorozwój. Jest jednocześnie aktywną postawą społeczną, ponieważ wymaga zaangażowania intelektualnego i politycznego we wpływaniu na zastaną rzeczywistość. Uważam, że pozytywna seksualność, wspierana pozytywną edukacją seksualną i zaangażowaniem społecznym, to bardzo istotny element oporu wobec relacji władzy.

Kina har gennem det sidste halve århundrede været igennem en drastisk økonomisk udvikling og befolkningstilvækst. Det har medført et enormt pres på landets naturressourcer. I mange områder har det skabt nye udfordringer for, hvordan man bedst håndterer vandressourceforvaltning. Kina har en lang hostorie for storstilede vandprojekter, som dæmninger og kanalsystemer. Det er først for nylig at den kinesiske regering har haft mere fokus på 'bløde' tilgange til vandressourceforvaltning som økonomiske incitamenter og institutionelle metoder. I forbindelse med denne overgang er der blevet formuleret en række politiske dokumenter, der sætter nye mål for at stoppe overforbrug af vandressourcer og forbedre den generelle vandkvalitet. Ét af disse dokumenter er "Water Ten Plan", hvori Haihe flodens opland er et af hovedindsatsområderne. Haihe er et af Kinas syv største flodoplande. Det udgør en stor del af den nordkinesiske slette, North China Plain, der ofte bliver omtalt som "Kinas brødkurv". Her konkurrerer millionbyer med det omkringliggende, intensivt opdyrkede område om de knappe vandressourcer. Dette har medført en kraftig overpumpning af grundvandsmagasinerne. Udover generel knaphed på vand er Haihe også det kinesiske flodopland med den overordnede set værste vandkvalitet. Hydroøkonomiske metoder og koncepter blev anvendt i dette studie på de komplekse vandressourceproblematikker i Haihe. En optimeringsmodel blev formuleret med udgangspunkt i ideen om, at vand besidder en økonomisk værdi. Ved at værdisætte alle former for brug af vand, kunne en socio-økonomisk optimal fordeling af de knappe vandressourcer tilstræbes. Med miljømæssige betingelser for den optimale fordeling af vand kunne værdien af bæredygtig vandressourceforvaltning reflekteres i økonomiske trade-offs og skyggepriser. Den hydroøkonomiske model var tilsigtet en så genkendelig og realistisk repræsentation af vandressourceproblematikkerne i Haihe som muligt. Den hydroøkonomiske optimeringsmodel blev derfor formuleret som ét stort lineært optimeringsproblem med en antagelse om perfekt fremsynethed over fremtidige hydrologiske hændelser. Dette muliggjorde en model, der kunne optimere et stort antal beslutningsvariabler over en lang række tidsskridt, uden at der skulle gås på kompromis med detaljegraden af modelområdet. Ved trinvist at begrænse overpumpningen af grundvandsmagasinerne kunne de økonomiske trade-offs af et bæredygtigt grundvandsforbrug afdækkes. Dette viste de omfattende socio-økonomiske konsekvenser af at standse overpumpningen af grundvand i North China Plain. Udover overpumpning af grundvand blev vandkvalitetsproblematikken også implementeret i modellen. Hver enkelt flod, grundvandsmagasin og vandtilførsler fra andre flodoplande, repræsenteret i modellen, blev angivet deres kendte vandkvalitet. De allokeringer af vand, der ikke havde en tilstrækkelig høj vandkvalitet til at sikre vandkvalitetskravene nedstrøms, blev pålagt en rensningsafgift. På denne måde sikredes alle brugere den nødvendige vandkvalitet. Samtidig kunne den økonomiske effekt af at sikre tilstrækkelig vandkvalitet kortlægges gennem skyggepriser for alle vandressourcer. Modellen blev også brugt til at finde værdien af forskellige tiltag til at imødekomme knapheden og kvaliteten af vandressourcerne. Disse tiltag var kunstig grundvandsinfiltrering og forbedret vandkvalitet af den østlige kanal med vandtilførsler fra Yangtze floden. Under antagelsen af perfekt fremsynethed kan effekterne af uforudsete hændelser, såsom tørke, ikke analyseres. Økonomiske omkostninger og værdien af tiltag vil højst sandsynligt være anderledes, hvis uforudsete hændelser medregnes. Disse hændelser blev simuleret ved at implementere en Model Predictive Control inspireret optimieringsrutine omkring modellen, der muliggjorde en kontinuerlig re-optimering. På denne måde kunne optimeringsproblemet simuleres med varierede grader af fremsynethed. Effekten af fremsynethed for udbyttet af landbrugsafgrøder blev repræsenteret ved at implementere respons i afgrødens endelige udbytte fra vandallokeringer over hele sæsonen. Modellen blev brugt til at evaluere værdien af et foreslået projekt, der ville kunne lede vandtilførsler fra den Gule Flod gennem Guanting reservoir til den vandknappe slette. Værdien af projektet viste sig at være undervurderet under antagelsen af perfekt fremsynethed. Dette understreger vigtigheden af at overveje effekterne af uforudsete hændelser i evalueringen af værdien af vandressourceprojekter. Modellen viste sig at være et brugbart værktøj til at klarlægge de økonomiske effekter relateret til de store vandproblematikker i Haihe: overpumpning af grundvandet og forringet vandkvalitet. De nuværende kinesiske tiltag på vandområdet viser en øget opmærksomhed omkring bæredygtig vandressourceforvaltning af flodoplande. Indsigter fra hydroøkonomiske analyser kan skabe forudsætningerne for at bevæge forvaltningen af de knappe vandressourcer i en mere bæredygtig retning og derved nå de politiske målsætninger. Erfaringerne fra Model Predictive Control optimeringsrutinen kan overføres til ethvert projekt, hvor et dynamisk system evalueres under en forudsætning af perfekt fremsynethed. ; China has experienced rapid economic growth and an increasing population over the past half century, which has put enormous pressure on its natural resources. In many regions, the rising pressure on water resources poses considerable challenges to water management. China has a long tradition of large-scale water infrastructure projects, but not until recently has the government emphasized more 'soft' approaches to water resources management, such as economic incentives and institutional measures. This transition has led to the formulation of several policy documents, which set new goals for capping water use and improving its quality. Among these documents is the Water Ten Plan, which identifies the Haihe River basin as one of the key regions for addressing water scarcity and pollution. The basin is one of the seven major river basins in China, and its plain area is part of the North China Plain, traditionally known as "the food basket of China". It is intensively cultivated, and agricultural irrigation demands compete with megacities and industries for scarce water resources. This has led to an overexploitation of the groundwater resources over the past decades. In addition to water scarcity, the Haihe River basin also presently has the overall worst water quality in the country. Methods and concepts from the field of hydroeconomic analysis were applied to the complex water challenges of the Haihe River basin, and the fundamental view of water possessing an economic value was adopted in an optimization framework. By quantifying the value of water in terms of all of its uses, socio-economic optimal management was pursued. Introducing environmental constraints to the optimization framework reflected the value of sustainable water management in economic trade-offs and shadow prices. The model representation of the Haihe River basin water management problem was intended to be as realistic and as recognizable to the water resources managers as possible. The hydroeconomic optimization model was therefore formulated as one large linear optimization problem, assuming perfect foresight of all future hydrological events. This allowed the model to optimize numerous decision variables over a large number of time steps, without compromising system representation. By incrementally constraining groundwater end-storage, the economic trade-offs from limiting the present groundwater overdraft to long-term sustainable groundwater abstractions was found. This revealed the significant socio-economic impacts of ending groundwater overdraft in the North China Plain. In addition to the groundwater overdraft, the issue of water pollution was also implemented in the model framework. All possible water allocations from Haihe River basin water sources, such as surface water runoff, major groundwater aquifers and inter-basin transfers, were assigned their known water quality standard. Cleaning costs were imposed on water allocations from water sources inferior to downstream water user quality demands. This ensured water allocations with fit-for-purpose quality while quantifying the economic impact of meeting downstream users' requirements. The spatial variation of water availability shadow prices, as an effect of considering water quality, could be mapped out. The model setup was used further to evaluate project benefits from managed aquifer recharge in the plain area as well as improving water quality for inter-basin transfers from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project's eastern line. Under the assumption of perfect foresight, impacts of uncertain future hydrological events, such as droughts, cannot be analyzed. Furthermore, assuming perfect foresight might alter costs and estimated project benefits compared to a system facing uncertain future hydrology. This was addressed by wrapping a model predictive control (MPC)-inspired continuous re-optimization routine around the optimization model. In this way, optimal water management with various levels of future foresight could be simulated. The impact of future foresight on agricultural yields was captured by representing yield response to water allocations. The model framework was used to evaluate the benefits of a proposed water infrastructure project allowing for additional inter-basin transfers from the Yellow River to flow to the plain area via the Guanting reservoir. The estimated project benefits, however, were recognized as being underestimated under an assumption of perfect foresight, which highlights the importance of considering the impacts of assuming perfect foresight in a cost-benefit context. The proposed model framework was shown to provide valuable decision support for the major water challenges of the Haihe River basin: groundwater overdraft and water quality deterioration. Present policies in China exhibit increased awareness of the need for sustainable management of river basin-scale water quantity and quality, and insights from hydroeconomic analyses can be a step towards reaching the political goals of sustainable water resources management. Moreover, experiences with the MPC framework can be transferred to any project benefit evaluation in which a dynamic system is evaluated under perfect foresight.

The manufacturing sector is one of the biggest energy consumers. The iron and steel markets in China are growing very fast. Several studies have been performed to evaluate the Chinese steel sector in terms of energy savings and CO2 emissions. The results of the studies showed that the major energy savings expected within 2020 and 2030 timeframe will be from industrial furnaces in steel mills. For the Swedish steel industry, it is important to be very efficient in order to remain competitive. The hot rolling process in the steel industry is a long process, where big slabs are heated in a furnace above the recrystallization temperature to roll the metal into a thin sheet and then the sheet is cooled at the Runout table using water. The amount of energy used during the process directly influences the price of the products. Moreover, the government policy on energy usage and CO2 emissions, the competitive market and the water scarcity, demand an optimal process operation to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission. Computer simulation is the best and most convenient way to approximate real-world processes; therefore, there is a need to have a real-time online simulation tool for process optimisation, decision support and diagnostics in different industries. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a robust tool for simulating almost any kind of real-world process related to fluid flow, heat transfer and combustion. However, simulating real-world processes in real-time using CFD is very challenging due to the complexity involved in the physical phenomena studied. In this thesis, CFD simulations have been performed in small scale to understand the physics and perceive the complexity involved in the heating process of steel slabs and the cooling process of the steel sheets at hot rolling steel industries. The results from the simulations are successfully validated using experimental and theoretical results published in open literature. Past experience suggests using mesh-based commercial CFD solvers for simulating industrial processes, only if accurate and detail results are desired. However, the computational performance of these solvers shows limitations from a real-time perspective and indicates the need for alternative CFD methods and solvers. In the literature review performed as part of the first stage of this work, we have identified different alternative methods which can be used to perform CFD simulations in real-time or near real-time for large industrial processes. The thesis discusses the limitations of different types of CFD methods and points out the difficulties and challenges in utilising these methods for simulating large industrial processes. Our preliminary simulation work brings light towards the goal of multi-phase multi-physics real-time simulations. ; Tillverkningsindustrin är en av de största energikonsumenterna. Järn och stålindustrin i Kina växer väldigt fort. Flera studier har genomförts för att utvärdera den kinesiska stålindustrisektorn vad gäller energieffektivisering och utsläpp av CO2. Resultaten av studierna visade att de stora energibesparingarna som kan genomföras mellan 2020 – 2030 kommer från industriella ugnar i stålverken. För den svenska stålindustrin är det viktigt att vara mycket effektiv för att bibehålla konkurrenskraft. Varmvalsningsprocessen i stålindustrin är en lång process, där stora skivor hettas upp i en ugn över den temperatur där materialet rekristalliseras och metallen valsas sedan i tunna skivor. Skivorna kyls sedan på utrullningsbordet med vatten. Energimängden som används under processen påverkar direkt priset på produkterna. Dessutom kräver stränga statliga bestämmelser, en konkurrenskraftig marknad och bristen på vatten optimala processförhållanden för att reducera energikonsumtionen och utsläppen av klimatgaser. Datasimulering är det bästa och mest pålitliga verktyget att approximera en verkliga processer. Det finns därför ett behov att ha ett online simuleringsverktyg för processoptimering, beslutsstöd och diagnostik i olika industrier. CFD-simulering (Computational fluid dynamics) är ett robust simuleringsverktyg för nästan alla typer av verkliga processer relaterade till vätskeflöde, värmeöverföring och förbränning. Dock är simulering av verkliga processer med CFD mycket utmanande på grund av komplexiteten i de fysikaliska fenomenen som ska studeras. I den här avhandlingen har CFD-simulering använts i liten skala för att förstå fysikaliska egenskaper och komplexiteten i värmningsprocesser av stålskivor och kylningsprocessen av de tunna stålplåtarna vid varmvalsningsprocessen i stålindustrin. Resultaten från simuleringarna är framgångsrikt validerade från experimentella och teoretiska resultat publicerade i litteraturen. Tidigare erfarenheter föreslår nätverksbaserade kommersiella CFD verktyg för att simulera industriella processer om korrekta och detaljerade resultat ska fås. Dock är prestandan för dessa verktyg begränsade ur ett verklighetsperspektiv och indikerar behovet av alternativa CFD-metoder och verktyg. Det första steget i detta arbete var att genomföra en litteraturgenomgång av tidigare studier. Vi identifierade då alternativa metoder som skulle kunna användas för att genomföra CFD-simulering i realtid och i nära realtid för stora industriella processer. Avhandlingen diskuterar begränsningar av olika CFD-metoder och synliggör svårigheter och utmaning i att utnyttja dessa metoder för att simulera stora industriella processer. Vårt preliminära simuleringsarbete är ett litet steg på vägen i målet att producera flerfasiga och multifysikaliska realtidssimuleringar.

The aim of the scientific article was to present the biography of Helena Lemańska, for many years the editor of Polish Film Chronicle (PFC). The article used two science technique: 1) Exegesis sources, 2) Interview. An interesting theme in the biography of Lemańska was her annual activity of the organization Hashomer Hatzair. Experience in journalism helped her in managing a team of PFC and contributed to the introduction of innovative techniques in the work of the PFC. ; Celem niniejszego artykułu naukowego jest prezentacja źródłowego badania dziejów Polskiej Rzeczypospolitej Ludowej przez pryzmat biografii redaktor naczelnej Polskiej Kroniki Filmowej Heleny Lemańskiej. W artykule wykorzystano dwie techniki badawcze: 1. egzegezę, 2. technikę wywiadu. ; Uniwersytet Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej w Lublinie ; Łukasz Jędrzejski – adiunkt z tytułem doktora w Zakładzie Myśli Politycznej na Wydziale Politologii Uniwersytetu Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej w Lublinie. Czynny uczestnik ponad czterdziestu konferencji międzynarodowych i ogólnopolskich, autor dwudziestu artykułów naukowych i współredaktor czterech monografii pokonferencyjnych. Członek Polskiego Towarzystwa Nauk Politycznych. Prowadzone badania obejmują następujące zagadnienia: komunikowanie polityczne, komunikowanie międzynarodowe i międzykulturowe, polską współczesną myśl polityczną oraz badania prasy w PRL. ; lukasz.jedrzejski@gmail.com ; 163 ; 1(10) ; 182 ; Archiwum Instytutu Pamięci Narodowej [AIPN], IPN/BU-012241682, Życiorys Heleny Lemanskiej [Curriculum vitae of Helena Lemańska]. ; AIPN, IPN/BU-012241682, Pismo Tadeusza Zaorskiego do Zygmunta Kniaziołuckiego dotyczące Heleny Lemańskiej [Letter from Tadeusz Zaorski to Zygmunt Kniaziołucki regarding Helena Lemańska]. ; AIPN, IPN/BU-012241682, Notatka dotycząca Heleny Lemańskiej [Note regarding Helena Lemańska]. ; AIPN, IPN/BU-012241682, Opinia dyrekcji Wytwórni Filmów Dokumentalnych I Fabularnych w Warszawie dotycząca Heleny Lemańskiej [Opinion of the Directorate of Documentary and Feature Film Studio in Warsaw regarding Helena Lemańska]. ; AIPN, IPN/BU-012241682, Protokół przesłuchania świadka Heleny Lemańskiej [Report on the interrogation of the witness Helena Lemańska]. ; AIPN, IPN/BU-012241682, Wyciąg z informacji Wydziału I Departamentu III z zachodnich rozgłośni radiowych z dnia 3 sierpnia 1968 [Statement taken from the information of Divisio I of Department III from Western radio stations, August 3, 1968]. ; AIPN, IPN/BU-012241682, Związek Zawodowy Pracowników Kultury i Sztuki Zarząd Okręgowy w Warszawie. Skarga Heleny Lemańskiej: Zatrudnionej w Wytwórni Filmów Dokumentalnych i Fabularnych w Warszawie do Podsekretarza Stanu w Ministerstwie Kultury i Sztuki Czesława Wiśniewskiego [Trade Union of Culture and Art Workers District Board in Warsaw. Complaint by Helena Lemańska: Employed at the Documentary and Feature Film Production Company in Warsaw to the Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Culture and Art Czesław Wiśniewski]. ; Bauman, Janina. Nigdzie na ziemi, opowiadania, powroty, (Łódź: Oficyna, 2011). ; Interview with Helena Lemańska conducted on February 11–13, 2016, (author's private collection). ; Interview with Jadwiga Zajiček on February 26, 2016, (author's private collection). ; Interview with Julia Juryś on February 13, 2016, (author's private collection). ; Juryś, Julia. "Cadyk z Kocka miał dwie wnuczki", Zeszyty Literackie, No. 2, 2018, 139–160. ; Rakowski, Mieczysław Franciszek. Dzienniki polityczne, (Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Iskry,1999). ; Zatorska, Helena. Spoza smugi cienia – wspomnień ciąg dalszy, (Kraków: Wydawnictwo Literackie, 1985). ; Eisler, Jerzy. "Millenium1966", Więź, No. 5–8,1989, 27–37. ; Lubelski, Tadeusz. Encyklopedia kina, (Kraków: Wydawnictwo Biały Kruk, 2003). ; Medoff, Rafael, Waxman, Chaim. Hashomer Hatzair, in: Rafael Medoff, Chaim Waxman (ed.), The A to Z of Zionism, (New York: The Scarecrow Press, 2013), 45–60. ; Bugajewski, Maciej. "Świadectwo historiografii", in: Jolanta Kolbuszewska, Rafał Stobiecki (ed.), Historyk wobec źródeł. Historiografia klasyczna i nowe propozycje metodologiczne, (Łódź: Wydawnictwo Ibidem, 2010), 225–240. ; Cieśliński, Marek. Piękniej niż w życiu. Polska Kronika Filmowa 1944–1994, (Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Trio, 2006). ; Maj, Ewa. Wprowadzenie, in: Ewa Maj, Jerzy Gryz, Eleonora Kirwiel, Marcin Wichmanowski (ed.), PRL, czyli Polska w drugiej połowie XX wieku. Studia i szkice naukowe oraz materiały źródłowe, (Lublin: Wydawnictwo UMCS, 2013), 7–13. ; Miśkiewicz, Benon. Wstęp do badań historycznych, (Warszawa: Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe, 1974). ; Surmaczyński, Marian. Podstawowe problemy metodologiczne nauk społeczno-politycznych, (Wrocław: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Wrocławskiego, 2010). ; Topolski, Jerzy. Historyk i źródła: próba dynamicznej charakterystyki źródeł historycznych, in: Jerzy Topolski (ed.), Marksizm i historia, (Warszawa: Państwowy Instytut Wydawniczy, 1977). ; Topolski, Jerzy. Metodologia historii, (Warszawa: Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe, 1973). ; Jędrzejski, Łukasz. Polska Kronika Filmowa 1944–1994. Obrazy komunikowania politycznego, (Doctoral dissertation written under the scientific guidance of Prof. dr hab. Ewa Maj, Lublin 2019) (Typescript is in the Main Library of Maria Curie Skłodowska University in Lublin, Poland). ; Jarosz, Dariusz, Pasztor, Maria. "Polsko-francuska »zimna wojna«: sprawa Robineau (1949–1950)", Dzieje Najnowsze, No. 3, 2001, 99–128. ; Jędrzejski, Łukasz. "Polska Kronika Filmowa w latach 1944–1968 jako medium partyjne. Zarys problemu", Polityka i Społeczeństwo, No. 1(15), 2017. ; Lemann, Jolanta. "Czarna seria polskiego dokumentu – kreatorzy i aktorzy", w: Ewelina Nurczyńska-Fidelska, Bronisława Stolarska (ed.), Szkoła polska – powroty, Acta Universitatis Lodziensis: Folia Scientiae Artium et Litterarum, No. 7, 1998, 145–163. ; Maj, Ewa. "Źródłowe badanie dziejów Polski Ludowej: przypadek fabularnej twórczości filmowej", Annales Universitatis Paedagogicae Cracoviensis. Studia Politologica, Vol. 10, 2013, 3–23. ; Cieśliński, Marek Kosma. "Personalia z historii PKF", Kino, No. 10, 2000, 10–15. ; Cieśliński, Marek Kosma. "Realizm i kreacja. Redagowanie Polskiej Kroniki Filmowej w latach 1956–1970", Kwartalnik Filmowy, No. 49–50, 2005, 104–129. ; Garbień, Krystyna. "PKF ma już także dwadzieścia lat", Film, No. 49, 1964, 5–8. ; Sobolewski, Tadeusz. "Nie żyje Helena Lemańska, »wielka dama polskiej kinematografii«. To Ona stała za Polską Kroniką Filmową. Miała 98 lat", Gazeta Wyborcza, [online] [accessed: 16.03.2020], . ; Publikacja przygotowana/finansowana w ramach programu Ministra Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego pod nazwą DIALOG w latach 2019–2021. Jest wynikiem udziału w projekcie badawczym pt. "Ośrodek badań historii kobiet", nr 0016/DLG/2019/10.

This report identifies and describes the most prominent exogenous factors affecting nature-based tourism (NBT). Megatrends and associated sub-trends were identified by means of a literature review and structured using the STEEP framework, including social, technological, economic, environmental and political drivers (Dwyer et al., 2009). Research papers published in English language journals were obtained by searching electronic databases of scientific and tourism journals (Google Scholar, Web of Science, Oria). A total of 151 research papers (including 109 peer reviewed journal articles) published between the years 1998-2017 were identified. The peer reviewed research papers were published in 55 different journals spanning a wide array of disciplines. Concluding remarks put the results in the context of Norwegian nature-based toursm. Social trends • Population growth. Will lead to an overall increase in participation in nature-based tourism. However, such unprecedented growths can also lead to an overuse of natural attractions negatively affecting natural resources. • Changes in household composition. Family households are getting smaller. Sole-parent and single-person households becoming more prevalent. More income and discretionary time to travel and participate in recreational activities. • Ageing population. Healthier, wealthier and more active older persons. Growingly interested in nature-based activities which accommodate their reduced physical abilities, i.e. less strenuous activities. • Health and well-being. More emphasis on mental health; de-stressing and self-medicating. People increasingly seek out nature-based activities as a form of natural therapy/treatment. • Urbanization. Urban congestion is threatening natural environments and leading to loss of landscape. People's need for green spaces is growing, thus, the demand for NBT is increasing as well. • Changing work patterns. A reduction in physically demanding employment and household work leads to increased demand for physical activity during leisure time. The growing middle class with more flexible working conditions and an increasing disposable time and income is allowing for more flexible travel plans and a desire to spend holidays in new and exotic natural destinations. • Gender. Modern societies are more feminized and women highly influence the choice of leisure activities. Women are prone to choosing NBT activities and products of high convenience, quality and beauty. While men value challenging NBT activities (e.g. hunting, fishing, adventure activities). • Increasing cultural diversity. Multicultural society is altering NBT visitor markets. Inflow of tourists with different cultural backgrounds, preferences and expectations, may lead to conflicts among them. New management interventions required in order to accommodate tourists' different needs and expectations, and prevent probable conflicts. • Values and lifestyles. Today's tourist is money rich/time poor, individualistic, seeking unique, personalized and authentic experiences. Tourists are increasingly interested in participating in NBT activities as it helps them understand themselves better, achieve a sense of transformation and identity. Moreover, there is an increasing environmental awareness among them. Technological trends • Transportation. New technology is reducing the cost and the increasing speed of travel. Increasing accessibility to various tourist destinations. Schemes to reduce carbon emissions are expected to negatively impact destinations far from markets. • High-tech equipment. Outdoor high-tech recreational equipment and clothing are providing recreationists with increased comfort, safety and access to nature destinations. Growth in participation in different types of NBT activities. • Information and communication technology (ICT). Advanced technology allows tourist destinations to add value for their visitors and minimize operating costs. Electronic word-of-mouth becomes an increasingly important factor for destination image and travel behavior. Social media allow for more transparency between customers and suppliers. More competition among tourist destinations and greater consumer power. Mobile technology and expanded mobile service covering remote areas will encourage tourists to visit and experience new, unknown nature areas. For NBT, Internet of Things is expected to help in managing visitors flow in outdoor areas, improve traffic management and enhance the monitoring of fragile ecosystems. Indoorization of outdoor activities and artificial recreations settings may signal a shift away from recreation in nature, but it is also argued that such services can stimulate participating in NBT. Economic Trends • Economic growth in developed economies. Economic growth, increasing income and disposable time in developed countries allow more people to spend more time and money on nature-based experiences. • Economic growth in emerging economies. Economic growth in emerging economies of the BRIC nations, especially China and India, will significantly contribute to the expansion of tourism. This is leading to an alteration in the cultural and ethnic mix of tourists arriving to the EU. These tourists bring different behaviour, expectations and demands, e.g. Chinese tourists are found to be more interested in passive enjoyment of natural scenery (i.e. sightseeing) rather than active involvement in NBT activities. • Sharing economy. Tourism services and businesses such as hotels, restaurants and tour operators are being challenged and gradually replaced by individuals who offer budget-friendly services such as accommodation, transportation, excursions and meals. • Fuel costs. Despite temporary reductions, oil prices are expected to increase again which will negatively impact travel propensity via increased cost for flight tickets and introduction of fuel charges. Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are expected to restrict and hinder future travel. Environmental trends • Climate change. Have a direct impact on NBT. Winter tourism is negatively impacted in regions such as Northern Europe and North America as winter becomes warmer and wetter; lower-altitude ski resorts are expected to face economical problems due to decline in snow cover and decline in visitation levels. While, capacity pressures will be created in higher-altitude resorts. Dog sledding and snowmobiling are also expected to face negative effects due to reduced snow cover. Climate change is leading to receding glaciers, hence, diminishing not only their aesthetic value but also their economical value associated with NBT activities such as sightseeing, trekking and skiing. Climate change is also leading to coral bleaching, starfish outbreaks and environmental degradation which negatively impact dive and snorkel tourism. • Land use and landscape change. Urbanization, rural depopulation, exploitation of land for road construction and energy production have all led to different changes to landscapes and loss of their aesthetic values. Natural landscapes are a main driving force of NBT. Hence, all such changes were found to have a negative impact on NBT via for instance reducing the attractiveness of tourist landscapes and the quality of tourists' experiences. Conflicts between various stakeholders (e.g. tourism, forestry, energy production) is also documented in the literature. Protected areas are often significant attractions in the nature-based tourism system, and more recent environmental policies in Scandinavia have emphasized the need to integrate nature-based tourism with protection of nature so that the two can be of mutual benefit. Political trends • Political turbulence, war and terrorism. Political turbulence in regions such as the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia are predicted to diminish tourism flows overall but is predicted to enhance the attractiveness of tourist destinations perceived as 'safe'. Tourist attractions that offer settings (e.g. outdoor recreation settings) where large numbers of visitors are gathered are more prone to terror attacks and may need more security measures to ensure safety. Loss of natural heritage due to war and civil unrest is documented in the literature; examples of damaged national parks and ruined NBT industries in countries with political turbulence and terror attacks are also documented. • Changes in border regulations. Changes in border regulations via the introduction and implementation of agreements such as the Schengen Agreement or China's Approved Destination Status 'ADS' have reduced border travel restrictions, creating huge tourism opportunities and traffic in several regions worldwide. China's ADS is expected to become the largest outbound market by 2020. • Health risks. The continuing rise in international travel is a driving force in global emergence and spread of infectious diseases (e.g. Zika or Ebola virus). Future spread of persistent life-threatening diseases may make international travel be perceived as a personal risk. Future travel may be strictly regulated to prevent the spread of any virulent diseases among tourist destinations. • Geopolitics. In today's globalised world, tourism is being used as an instrument to realize particular geopolitical goals. For example, sport events among Commonwealth member states as a unification tool. China's Approved Destination Status (ADS) as a projection of its soft power. Regional blocs such as North American and the European Union Free Trade Agreement also impact tourists' movement within these multilateral entities. The report is produced with funding from BIOTOUR – a four year research project with the objective to research and disseminate key conditions for future development of nature-based tourism in the Norwegian bio-economy that contribute to business innovation, community resilience and sustainable use of resources (www.nmbu.no/biotour). ; Denne rapporten identifiserer og beskriver de viktigste faktorene som påvirker det naturbaserte reiselivet. Megatrender og tilhørende sub-trender er blitt klarlagt gjennom en litteraturstudie og strukturert ved hjelp av et eget rammeverk, STEEP, som omfatter sosiale (Social), teknologiske (Technological), økonomiske (Economic), miljømessige (Environmental) og politiske (Political) drivkrefter (Dwyer et al., 2009). Litteraturgjennomgangen baserer seg på systematiske søk i elektroniske databaser for vitenskapelige, engelskspråklige journaler (Google Scholar, Web of Science, Oria). I alt 151 forskningsbidrag (hvorav 109 fagfellevurderte tidsskriftsartikler) publisert i årene 1998-2017 ble identifisert, og disse er blitt publisert i 55 ulike tidsskrifter innenfor et bredt spekter av fagdisipliner. I konklusjonsdelen av rapporten er hovedresultatene satt inn i en norsk naturbasert reiselivskontekst. Sosiale trender • Befolkningsvekst. Vil føre til en generell økning i deltakelsen i naturbasert reiseliv. Men en slik akselererende vekst kan også føre til stort forbruk av naturattraksjoner, som igjen kan påvirke naturressursgrunnlaget på en negativ måte. • Endringer i husholdningenes sammensetning. Familiehusholdningene blir mindre. Hushold bestående av én forelder eller aleneboende blir mer vanlig. Høyere inntekter og mer fleksibel tidsbruk øker mulighetene for å reise og delta i rekreasjonsaktiviteter. • Aldrende befolkning. Bedre helse og høyere velstand blant aktive eldre personer. Økende interesse for naturbaserte aktiviteter som er tilpasset reduserte fysiske forutsetninger, dvs. mindre krevende aktiviteter. • Helse og velvære. Mer vekt på mental helse; avstressing og selvmedisinering. Folk velger naturbaserte aktiviteter som en form for naturlig terapi/ behandling. • Urbanisering. Urban vekst truer naturmiljøer og fører til tap av naturlandskap. Folks behov for tilgang til grønne områder øker, og dermed vokser også etterspørselen etter naturbasert reiseliv. • Endrede arbeidsmønstre. Reduksjon i fysisk jobbkrav og mindre anstrengende husarbeid fører til økt etterspørsel etter fysisk aktivitet i fritiden. Den voksende middelklassen med mindre rigide arbeidsbetingelser og mer disponibel tid og inntekt åpner for mer fleksibel reising og et ønske om å tilbringe ferien på nye destinasjoner med eksotisk natur. • Kjønn. Moderne samfunn er mer feminiserte, og kvinner påvirker i stor grad valg av fritidsaktiviteter. Kvinner er tilbøyelige til å velge naturbaserte reiselivsaktiviteter preget av bekvemmelighet, kvalitet og skjønnhet, mens menn i større grad søker utfordrende aktiviteter som jakt, fiske og det som representerer spenning i naturomgivelser. • Økende kulturelt mangfold. Det multikulturelle samfunnet endrer markedene i det naturbaserte reiselivet. Tilstrømmingen av turister med ulik kulturell bakgrunn, preferanser og forventninger kan føre til konflikter mellom de ulike segmentene. Nye grep fra naturforvaltningen er påkrevd for å ivareta turistenes ulike behov og forventninger, og forhindre konflikter. • Verdier og livsstiler. Dagens turist er rik på penger men fattig på tid, individualistisk, og søker unike, persontilpassede og autentiske opplevelser. Turister er i økende grad interessert i å delta i naturbaserte reiselivsaktiviteter; det hjelper dem til å forstå seg selv bedre, bidrar til en følelse av personlig forandring og uttrykker en form identitet. Videre er det en økende miljøbevissthet. Teknologiske trender • Transport. Ny teknologi reduserer reisekostnadene og øker reisehastighetene. Tilgjengeligheten til ulike turistdestinasjoner øker. Planer for å redusere karbonutslipp forventes å påvirke destinasjoner som ligger langt fra markedene, på en negativ måte. • High-tech-utstyr. High-tech utstyr og avanserte klær gir friluftslivsutøvere mer komfort, høyere sikkerhet og lettere tilgang til naturområder. Bidrar til vekst i ulike former for naturbaserte reiselivsaktiviteter. • Informasjons- og kommunikasjonsteknologi (IKT). Avansert teknologi gir turistdestinasjoner merverdi for besøkende og reduserer driftskostnader. Turistomtale i elektroniske medier blir stadig viktigere for reismålenes image og turisters reiseatferd. Sosiale media gjør tilbyder-kundeforholdet mer transparent. Mer konkurranse mellom destinasjoner og større forbrukermakt. Mobilteknologi og flere mobile tjenester som dekker avsidesliggende områder, vil oppfordre turister til å besøke og oppleve nye, ukjente naturområder. For naturbasert reiseliv forventes utstrakt bruk av internett (Internet of Things) å kunne være til hjelp i forvaltingen av turiststrømmer i naturområder, forbedre trafikkstyringen allment og raffinere overvåkningen av sårbare økosystemer. Mer tilrettelegging for aktiviteter innendørs (indoorization) og kunstig oppbygde arenaer kan signalisere et skifte bort fra rekreasjonsaktiviteter i naturomgivelser, men det er også argumentert for at slike nye tilbud kan stimulere deltakelse i naturbasert reiseliv. Økonomiske trender • Økonomisk vekst i utviklede økonomier. Økonomisk vekst, økende inntekter og mer disponibel tid i utviklede land gjør det mulig for flere å bruke mer tid på naturbaserte opplevelser. • Økonomisk vekst i utviklingsøkonomier. Økonomisk vekst i BRIC-landenes utviklingsøkonomier, spesielt i Kina og India, vil i betydelig grad bidra til ekspansjon i reisevirksomheten. Dette fører til endinger i den kulturelle og etniske sammensetningen av turister som ankommer EU. Disse gjestene har annerledes turistatferd, forventninger og krav; kinesiske turister utviser større interesse for passiv nytelse av natur og landskap (sightseeing) framfor å engasjere seg i aktive naturbaserte reiselivsaktiviteter. • Delingsøkonomi. Kommersielle foretak som hoteller, restauranter og turoperatører utfordres og blir gradvis erstattet av individer som tilbyr budsjettvennlige tjenester som overnatting, transport, utflukter og måltider. • Drivstoffkostnader. Til tross for tidvise reduksjoner forventes oljeprisen å stige, noe om vil påvirke folks tilbøyelighet til å reise på en negativ måte på grunn av økte priser på flybilletter og introduksjon av ekstra drivstoffavgifter. Strategier for å hindre utslipp av drivhusgasser forventes å begrense/ hindre fremtidig reisevirksomhet. Miljøtrender • Klimaendringer. Har direkte påvirkning på naturbasert reiseliv. Vinterturismen vil bli negativt påvirket i regioner som Nord-Europa og Nord-Amerika ettersom vintrene blir varmere og våtere; lavtliggende skidestinasjoner forventes å få økonomiske problemer som følge av redusert snødekke og mindre besøk. Det vil bli press på kapasiteten i mer snøsikre, høytliggende områder. Hundekjøring og snøskuterkjøring forventes å bli negativt påvirket på grunn av mindre snø. Klimaendringer fører til at isbreene trekker seg tilbake, noe som fører til at ikke bare deres estetiske verdi, men også økonomiske verdi knyttet til naturbaserte aktiviteter som sightseeing, brevandringer og skiturer, reduseres. Klimaendringene fører også til bleking av koraller og miljømessig degradering av marine områder som påvirker dykke- og snorklingsaktiviteter. • Arealbruk og landskapsendringer. Faktorer som urbanisering, befolkningsnedgang i distriktene, eksploatering av arealer til veibygging og energiproduksjon har alle ført til ulike typer av endringer av landskaper og tap av deres estetiske verdier. Intakte naturlandskaper er en sentral forutsetning for naturbasert reiseliv. Derfor har de nevnte faktorene negative konsekvenser for naturbasert reiseliv ettersom attraktiviteten i turistlandskapene og kvaliteten på turistopplevelsene reduseres. Konfliktene mellom ulike interessenter (turisme, skogbruk, energiproduksjon) er også dokumentert i litteraturen. Verneområder er ofte viktige attraksjoner i det naturbaserte turismesystemet, og nyere miljøpolitikk i Skandinavia understreker behovet for å integrere det naturbaserte reiselivet med områdevern til gjensidig nytte for begge parter. Politiske trender • Politisk turbulens. Krig og terrorisme. Politisk turbulens i regioner som Midtøsten, Afrika og deler av Asia forventes å redusere turiststrømmene i alminnelighet, men vil kunne øke attraktiviteten til destinasjonsområder som anses som trygge. Turistattraksjoner som tiltrekker seg store ansamlinger av besøkende (f.eks. kjente naturattraksjoner), er mer utsatt for terroranslag og vil ha behov for sikkerhetstiltak. Tap av naturarv på grunn av krig og uro er påpekt i litteraturen, og eksempler på ødelagte nasjonalparker og ruinerte naturbaserte reiselivsnæringer i land med politisk turbulens og terror er også dokumentert. • Endringer i grensekontroller. Endringer i grensekontroller gjennom introduseringen og implementeringen av avtaler som Schengen-samarbeidet eller Kinas utreisebestemmelser (Approved Destination Status, 'ADS') har redusert grenserestriksjoner og utløst enorme reisemuligheter i flere regioner rundt om i verden. Kinas ADS er forventet å bli verdens største utreisemarked i 2020. • Helserisiko. Den vedvarende økningen i internasjonal reisevirksomhet er en drivkraft i oppblomstringen og spredningen av infeksjonssykdommer (Zika eller Ebola-virus). Fremtidig spredning av vedvarende livstruende sykdommer kan bidra til at internasjonal reisevirksomhet oppfattes som en personlig risiko. Reiseaktiviteten kan tenkes å bli strengt regulert for å unngå spredning av virussykdommer i turistområdene. • Geopolitikk. I dagens globaliserte verden er turismen et redskap for å nå visse geopolitiske mål. For eksempel er felles sportsbegivenheter i Samveldenasjonene et instrument for å ivareta samholdet blant disse nasjonene. Kinas ADS er et politisk verktøy. Regionale blokker som den nordamerikanske og europeiske frihandelsavtalen påvirker også turistbevegelsene. Rapporten er finansiert av BIOTOUR – et fireårig forskningsprosjekt der formålet er å identifisere nøkkelbetingelser for videreutvikling av naturbasert reiseliv i norsk bioøkonomi som sikrer næringsutvikling, robuste lokalsamfunn og bærekraftig ressursbruk (www.nmbu.no/biotour).

Advanced LIGO ; Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom ; Australian Research Council ; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India, Department of Science and Technology, India ; Science & Engineering Research Board (SERB), India ; Ministry of Human Resource Development, India ; Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad ; Conselleria d'Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d'Educacio, Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears ; National Science Centre of Poland ; FOCUS Programme of Foundation for Polish Science ; European Union ; Royal Society ; Scottish Funding Council ; Scottish Universities Physics Alliance ; Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO) ; National Research Foundation of Korea ; Industry Canada ; Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation ; National Science and Engineering Research Council Canada ; Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation ; Research Corporation, Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Taiwan ; Kavli Foundation ; Science and Technology Facilities Council ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000954/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L000946/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006242/1 Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/L003465/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/J000019/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000072/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K000845/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/I006269/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N000633/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/M000931/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/K005014/1 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: PPA/G/S/2002/00652 ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: Gravitational Waves ; Science and Technology Facilities Council: ST/N00003X/1 ; We present a possible observing scenario for the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We determine the expected sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. We report our findings for gravitational-wave transients, with particular focus on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron-star systems, which are considered the most promising for multi-messenger astronomy. The ability to localize the sources of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and 90% credible regions can be as large as thousands of square degrees when only two sensitive detectors are operational. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5 deg(2) to 20 deg(2) will require at least three detectors of sensitivity within a factor of similar to 2 of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. Should the third LIGO detector be relocated to India as expected, a significant fraction of gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.