AMÉRICA LATINA Triunfo de la derecha en elecciones en Honduras. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2013/12/03/honduras-le-tribunal-electoral-va-recompter-les-proces-verbaux_3524291_3222.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2013/11/30/world/americas/honduras-elections/index.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25196157http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642009-hernandez-se-impone-en-honduras-pero-los-zelaya-denuncian-fraudehttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/manuel-zelaya-llama-a-honduras-a-protestar-por-elecciones_13233235-4http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/juan-orlando-hernndez-ganador-de-elecciones-en-honduras-tribunal-electoral_13229000-4http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642336-confirman-el-triunfo-de-la-derecha-en-hondurashttp://www.cnn.com/2013/11/27/world/americas/honduras-presidential-election/index.html Peña Nieto, entre las reformas y las inercias de México. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/30/actualidad/1385787588_689042.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25180472http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/28/actualidad/1385668708_568949.html Ortega se topa con la Iglesia en Nicaragua. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/28/actualidad/1385664030_979193.html Maduro intensifica 'guerra económica' en Venezuela. Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25196223http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/03/actualidad/1386034079_705347.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/bajaran-el-precio-de-los-carros-en-venezuela-_13248154-4http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1644020-en-barinas-la-cuna-del-chavismo-la-oposicion-busca-dar-el-golpehttp://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2013/12/03/le-gouvernement-venezuelien-veut-fixer-le-prix-des-voitures_3524335_3222.html Venezuela es el país más corrupto de América Latina. Para más información:http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2013/venezuela-transparencia-ti-970090.html Paraguayos se levantan contra la corrupción. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/paraguayos-se-levantan-contra-la-corrupcin_13245395-4 Nicaragua da vía libre a Estados Unidos y Rusia para patrullar en el Caribe. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/nicaragua-autoriza-ingreso-de-naves-de-estados-unidos-y-rusia_13224495-4 54 cadáveres son encontrados en fosa común en México. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/27/world/americas/mexico-mass-graves/index.html Cuba se queda sin banco en Estados Unidos. Para más información:http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/27/21642809-cuba-travel-threatened-by-us-bank-dilemma?litehttp://www.cnn.com/2013/11/26/world/americas/cuba-us-consular-services/index.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/cuba-sin-banco-en-ee-uu_13233236-4 Mueren 30 inmigrantes haitianos al naufragar embarcación en Bahamas. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/muerte-de-inmigrantes-en-naufragio-de-embarcacin-en-bahamas_13225236-4 Alarma en Río: aumenta apresuradamente el número de personas sin techo. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1643496-alarma-en-rio-aumenta-rapidamente-el-numero-de-personas-sin-techo Michelle Bachelet adelanta complejo escenario para el próximo gobierno. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/01/actualidad/1385922610_677978.htmlhttp://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2013/12/03/chili-levee-partielle-d _3524309_3222.htmlhttp://www.emol.com/noticias/nacional/2013/12/02/632821/michelle-bachelet-adelanta-complejo-escenario-para-el-proximo-gobierno.html Refuerzan la seguridad en las playas de Río de Janeiro tras una ola de asaltos. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642187-refuerzan-la-seguridad-en-las-playas-de-rio-de-janeiro-tras-una-ola-de-asaltos Las negociaciones con la FARC, cuestión fundamental para posible reelección en Colombia. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/21/world/americas/colombia-santos-re-election/index.html Piñera advierte sobre "cuchillos largos" en Chile tras elección. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/latinoamerica/pinera-advierte-sobre-cuchillos-largos-en-la-derecha-chilena-tras-eleccion_13246515-4 Colapso en estadio mundialista brasileño mata a dos personas. Para más información:http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/27/21643011-brazil-world-cup-soccer-stadium-collapse-kills-two-people?lite ESTADOS UNIDOS /CANADÁ Descarrilamiento en Nueva York deja cuatro muertos y decenas de heridos. Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25194804http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1643883-descarrilamiento-en-nueva-york-el-gobernador-apunta-a-un-exceso-de-velocidadhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/descarrilamiento-de-tren-en-nueva-york_13243796-4http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1385999520_092965.html Volvió Obama con jugadas audaces. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2013/12/02/la-californie-espoir-de-l-obamacare_3523838_3222.htmlhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1641838-volvio-el-obama-de-las-jugadas-audaceshttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/la-apuesta-pacifista-de-barack-obama_13243037-4 Estados Unidos y Japón desafían a China: naves militares y civiles volaron sobre una zona de defensa. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2013/12/03/les-etats-unis-profondement-preoccupes-par-la-zone-aerienne-chinoise_3524320_3222.htmlhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642711-eeuu-y-japon-desafian-a-chinahttp://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/12/02/u-s-navy-deploys-new-reconnaissance-planes-to-japan/?hpt=hp_t3&hpt=ias_c2http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/world/asia/japan-china-us-tensions/index.html?hpt=ias_c2http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25180811 Estados Unidos se dispone a asumir todo el peso de destruir los arsenales químicos sirios. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/01/actualidad/1385924798_486857.html Estados Unidos se moviliza para liberar estadounidense en cárcel cubana. Para más información:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2013-12/03/content_17147606. Obama apuesta por Hillary y le prepara el terreno para 2016. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1643500-obama-apuesta-por-hillary-y-le-prepara-el-terreno-para-2016 Estados Unidos apoya el proceso de paz, pero seguirá persiguiendo a las FARC. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/estados-unidos/estados-unidos-reitero-que-apoya-firmemente-el-proceso-de-paz-_13247270-4 Sargento a juicio por red de prostitución en Estados Unidos. Para más información:http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2013/sargento-a-juicio-por-red-de-prostitucion-en-eu-970096.html EUROPA Ucrania al borde de otra revolución por el alejamiento de la Unión Europea. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/world/europe/ukraine-protests/index.html?hpt=ieu_c1http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2013/12/02/les-visages-de-la-contestation-en-ukraine_3524061_3214.htmlhttp://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/02/21714289-pro-west-protesters-besiege-ukraines-seat-of-power?litehttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1644029-acorralado-por-las-protestas-europeistas-el-gobierno-de-ucrania-denuncia-un-golpehttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/anlisis-de-las-presiones-rusas_13245419-4http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1386016704_617519.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25196907http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1385975707_863477.htmlhttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2013-12/03/content_17147888.htm Merkel pactó otro gobierno con una agenda más social y afianza su alianza con la social democracia. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/27/world/europe/germany-coalition/index.htmlhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642430-angela-merkel-formara-una-gran-coalicion-con-la-centroizquierdahttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/01/actualidad/1385922762_459228.htmlhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642598-cameron-duro-contra-la-inmigracion David Cameron arremete contra los inmigrantes. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/david-cameron-arremete-contra-los-inmigrantes_13237738-4 Portugal refuerza la supervisión de sus 950 kilómetros de costa. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1385992907_544398.html Grecia: neonazis exigen frente al Parlamento la liberación de sus líderes. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1643457-grecia-neonazis-exigen-frente-al-parlamento-la-liberacion-de-sus-lideres Angela Merkel fue espiada por los servicios secretos de cinco países. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/espionaje-a-angela-merkel_13219037-4 Helicóptero cae encima de un pub en Glasgow . Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/cae-helicptero-en-escocia_13236212-4http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1643497-escocia-la-caida-de-un-helicoptero-sobre-un-pub-dejo-8-muertos Colapso de centro comercial en Lituania deja decenas de heridos. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/27/world/europe/latvia-roof-collapse-resignation/index.html Gobierno escocés presentó una guía para separarse de Gran Bretaña en 2016. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642338-escocia-lanzo-su-plan-para-la-independencia Putin promulga una ley que prohíbe la publicidad del aborto. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/putin-promulga-una-ley-que-prohbe-la-publicidad-del-aborto_13221055-4 Gobierno de Croacia realiza presión para permitir la unión civil entre individuos del mismo sexo. Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25172778http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/world/europe/croatian-government-to-pursue-law-allowing-civil-unions-for-gay-couples.html?ref=world La policía francesa usa en Lyon gases lacrimógenos contra niños rumanos. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1385989760_645317.html Un incendio en un taller textil revela la esclavitud de los chinos en Italia. Para más información:http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/02/21714872-deadly-factory-fire-highlights-near-slavery-conditions-in-italy?litehttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1386018190_636332.html Berlusconi fue expulsado del Parlamento. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/27/world/europe/italy-berlusconi/index.htmlhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642634-fin-de-una-era-en-italia-berlusconi-fue-expulsado-del-parlamento Berlusconi enfrentaría más cargos por el caso 'Ruby'. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/europa/justicia-italiana-acusara-con-dos-nuevos-cargos-a-silvio-berlusconi_13237739-4 Europa da un vuelco a su imagen exterior y negocia con Irán. Para más información:http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/30/actualidad/1385833393_695763.html Refugiados de la guerra en Siria se asoman en el escenario europeo. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/30/world/middleeast/out-of-syria-into-a-european-maze.html?ref=world Papa Francisco se reúne con Netanyahu. Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25191175http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/world/europe/pope-netanyahu/index.html?hpt=ieu_c2 ASIA- PACÍFICO/ MEDIO ORIENTE Continúa la violencia extrema en Siria. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2013/12/02/crimes-de-guerre-en-syrie-des-preuves-pointent-vers-bachar-al-assad_3523997_3218.htmlhttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1386001878_501681.htmlhttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2013-12/03/content_17146977.htmhttp://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/world/meast/syria-damascus-suburb-pleitgen/index.html?hpt=imi_c2http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25189834http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25167053http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/02/21720317-un-evidence-on-syria-war-http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1644031-acusan-a-al-assad-de-crimenes-de-guerracrimes-implicates-assad?litehttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/crimenes-de-guerra-en-siria_13246487-4http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/30/21686393-us-to-destroy-syrias-chemicals-at-sea-weapons-watchdog-says?lite Más de 11.000 niños han muerto en conflicto sirio. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/11000-nios-han-muerto-en-conflicto-sirio_13219438-4 Tensión en Tailandia por violentas protestas.http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2013/12/03/thailande-intervention-des-etats-unis-pour-appeler-au-dialogue_3524293_3216.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25190314http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/03/world/asia/thailand-protests/index.html?hpt=ias_c1http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1385986444_892199.htmlhttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2013-12/03/content_17146614.htmhttp://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2013/manifestantes-entran-en-la-sede-de-gobierno-en-tailandia-970094.htmlhttp://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/video/2013/12/02/gaz-lacrymogenes-contre-bulldozer-lors-d-affrontements-en-thailande_3524013_3216.html Histórico acuerdo: Irán aceptó limitar su programa nuclear. Para más información:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25194946http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1641836-historico-acuerdo-iran-acepto-limitar-su-programa-nuclearhttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/29/actualidad/1385751805_758156.html El vuelo de cazas chinos sobre las islas en disputa con Japón eleva la tensión en Asia. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/world/asia/chinese-leaders-rise-came-with-new-attention-to-dispute-with-japan.html?ref=worldhttp://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/29/actualidad/1385711461_838657.htmlhttp://www.lanacion.com.ar/1644033-el-mar-de-china-oriental-escenario-de-una-nueva-y-peligrosa-pulseada-por-el-poder-globalhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/world/asia/biden-faces-delicate-two-step-in-asia-over-east-china-sea-dispute.html?ref=worldhttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-12/02/content_17146368.htm Terremoto de 6.3 sacude a el Pacifico Sur. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/30/world/asia/indonesia-earthquake/index.html?hpt=ias_c2http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/oceania/un-terremoto-marino-de-65-grados-sacude-fiyi_13217195-4 Mujeres saudíes fueron detenidas por manejar automóviles. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/01/world/meast/saudi-arabia-female-drivers-detained/index.html?hpt=imi_c2 Evacuadas 18.000 personas en China por temor a explosión en oleoducto. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/asia/tragedia-por-explosin-de-oleoducto-en-china_13217295-4 La violencia vuelve a adueñarse de Irak y temen una guerra civil. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/world/middleeast/kurds-oil-deals-with-turkey-raise-fears-of-fissures-in-iraq.html?ref=world&_r=0http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/12/02/actualidad/1385977378_783831.htmlhttp://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/violencia-en-irak-34-muertos-en-atentados_13223707-4http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25173722http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1642964-la-violencia-vuelve-a-aduenarse-de-irak-y-temen-una-guerra-civil Violencia en Afganistán. Para más información:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/world/asia/attacks-rise-on-aid-workers-in-afghanistan.html?ref=worldhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/world/asia/afghanistan-suicide-bombing-kills-4.html?ref=worldhttp://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/world/asia/afghanistan-violence/index.html?hpt=ias_c2 Hong Kong en alerta por caso de fiebre H7N9. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/03/world/asia/hong-kong-h7n9-case/index.html?hpt=ias_c2http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-25181387 Gracias a la fiebre de consumo China es la nueva reina de las cibercompras. Para más información:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1643502-gracias-a-la-fiebre-de-consumo-china-es-la-nueva-reina-de-las-cibercompras ÁFRICA Continúa la inestabilidad política en Egipto. Para más información:http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2013/12/02/en-egypte-le-projet-de-constitution-maintient-de-larges-pouvoirs-a-l-armee_3523600_3212.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/world/meast/egypt-protests/index.html?hpt=iaf_c2http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25183139 Crisis diplomática entre Egipto y Turquía: expulsado embajador turco. Para más información:http://www.eltiempo.com/mundo/medio-oriente/gobierno-egipcio-expulsa-al-embajador-de-turqua_13217216-4 Somalia es el país más corrupto del mundo. Para más información:http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/el-mundo/2013/dinamarca-somalia-transparencia--970091.html Ataque de islamistas a base en Nigeria. Para más información:http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/02/world/africa/boko-haram-attack/index.html?hpt=iaf_c2http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/29/21677286-nigeria-more-than-50-islamist-insurgents-killed-in-airstrike?lite OTRAS NOTICIAS "The Economist" presenta su informe semanal Politics this week. Para más información:http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21590971-politics-week?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709
The short-lived popularity boost of the Osama bin Laden operation having all but faded, President Obama for the first time appears vulnerable and could be defeated in the 2012 election. Indeed, many are starting to wonder if he will be a one-term president like Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. As congressional leaders continue to meet with Vice President Joe Biden to negotiate a reduction of the federal budget and to avoid a potential default on government debt, the economic recovery seems to be stalling: reports released last week show unemployment rose again to 9.1 % and job growth slowed down, and manufacturing and retail sales are also down from last quarter.The only good news for the President is that the Republican field of candidates, while still fluid, is very weak so far, and the Republican Party leadership divided and ineffective. Hefty potential candidates such as Jeb Bush (undoubtedly the strongest intellect in the GOP today) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have eschewed confronting the formidable President-candidate in 2012 and seem to be lying in wait for 2016, when they expect the field to be wide open.The first serious national presidential debate for the Republican candidacy took place on Monday, June 13. Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and the author of a health plan there which critics contend is very similar to Obama's, emerged as the solid front-runner and Michelle Bachman, an Evangelical Congresswoman from Minnesota and a Tea Party favorite, as the one who can challenge him. She is a former tax lawyer and a mother of five, who also apparently has found time to raise 23 foster kids. She is often compared to Sarah Palin, but most agree that she has more substance, understands how the government and can articulate ideas. She portrays herself as the anti-establishment figure, although she has been in Congress for a while and is at present the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee. Similarly to Palin, she considers the federal government an "elitist conspiracy" against middle-America and has invoked the War Powers Resolution to force Obama to request Congress authorization to continue operations in Libya. Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota, also an Evangelical with Tea Party following, was expected to be a serious challenger, but missed an opportunity to confront Romney on his health care plan for Massachusetts, which he had severely criticized the day before on national TV, stating it was very similar to Obama's, and going as far as calling Romney a "co-conspirator in Obama care." This lack of courage to confront the front-runner personally has made him a distant third in the primary race. Romney, on the other hand, was very well-prepared, confident in his own image of the businessman/CEO who can fix the jobs problem. The rest of the Republican candidates were a motley crew, starting with Herman Cain, an African-American businessman, owner of a pizza chain and talk show host, followed by Ron Paul, a radical libertarian that in spite of his quirky ways is quite endearing in his candid contempt for government, and Newt Gingrich, whose entire campaign staff had just resigned due to his lack of discipline and inability to run a serious campaign. All candidates focused more on bashing Obama than each other, since it is early in the race and there will be time enough for that this coming fall. Rick Santorum, another fiscal and social conservative (but in this case Catholic) and former Senator for Pennsylvania, completes the second-tier line-up of Republican candidates.But the Republican field has not firmed up yet, and there could be some surprise Republican candidates entering the race, as the President appears more vulnerable. In fact, only yesterday John Huntsman, a new intriguing figure who has been Obama's ambassador to China, joined the fray announcing his candidacy from Liberty Island, next to the Statue of Liberty, in the same spot where Ronald Reagan announced his in 1980. Huntsman, former governor of Utah, is a billionaire, a moderate and a Mormon, just like Romney. Both will skip Iowa, the first test for candidates, and one dominated by Evangelical "value" voters. Both are well-spoken, good looking family men with no rough edges. Unlike Romney, he has very little name recognition at the national level, and spent years as a missionary in China, where he learnt to speak Mandarin fluently. What he brings to the race is his expertise in that country, the main holder of American's debt, and therefore, the one that worries Americans the most. He has framed this primary contest as one between "renewal and decline". He speaks in a very quiet, civil tone and he introduced himself to the public through a stream of unusual videos, one for example that shows the candidate himself, in motocross attire from heads to toe, riding his motorbike across the Utah desert, as dreamy country music plays in the background. The White House is said to be concerned about his candidacy, not only because of moderation, his capacity and his presidential demeanor but also because he has been an insider of this administration and may use information thus acquired against the President. He could become a formidable opponent, a Republican mirror image of the President.Another prospective candidate, who, if he decides to run, could throw all calculations into disarray, is Rick Perry, the Governor of Texas. He is an attractive candidate for the party establishment and has two very strong qualities: first, he is a social conservative who could supersede Bachman and Pawlenty in drawing the Tea Party vote; second, he has been a successful governor who can boast about his job creation record in Texas (40% of all new jobs during the recovery were created in Texas). He is still testing the waters, and similarly to Huntsman, may perhaps use 2012 as a platform that can propel him into the 2016 election. Although he has not announced his candidacy, observers point to his convening of a "National Day of Prayer" for early August as a sign that he may run. He would be a formidable contester, since he can speak both the language of the Tea Party as well as the national language of this 2012 election, which is the economy and jobs.In comparing the Republican Party today with the one of ten years ago, one cannot help but notice the big shift that has occurred, and in doing so, perhaps be less dismissive of Ron Paul's philosophical influence on the party rank and file. The truth is the libertarian streak has made important inroads inside the party, and voters are now serious about not only fiscal conservatism and smaller government, but also a retrenchment of America's role in the world. This was apparent during last week's debate and the public conversations that followed in the airwaves throughout the week. Most of the candidates blasted Obama for intervening in Libya and called for an early withdrawal from Afghanistan. Michelle Bachman invoked the War Powers Resolution, passed in 1973 during Watergate, which obligates the President to seek the approval of Congress 60 days after the beginning of hostilities. The Republican Party has traditionally been the home of National Security "hawks", and the last strong isolationist mood in the party dates to the 1920s. While an isolationist wing emerged again right before Gen. Eisenhower became president, after that it was represented by a very small group, led in the last twenty years or so by Pat Buchanan. Today, a war-weary and budget- conscious American public is in favor of withdrawal from Afghanistan by a wide majority (73% of all Americans, 59% among Republicans), in spite of the fact that most had understood that to be a "war of necessity" as opposed to Iraq, a war of choice. If we count American military presence in Iraq, Libya, Yemen and the tribal areas of Pakistan, today the US is involved in five different conflicts, and spending billions of dollars a month on them, most of which are considered wars of choice. Today, President Obama is in fact a victim of his own success: bin Laden is dead, so Americans want out of Afghanistan. This is echoed loudly enough by his opponents. The President is thus under pressure to bring the troops home not only by libertarians but also by extreme Right candidates (Bachman) and even by mainstream candidates like Huntsman and Romney.After the debate, Republican Senators John Mc Cain and Lindsay Graham and Defense Secretary Gates took to the airwaves to admonish the candidates on this issue, accusing them of choosing politics over policy in matters of national security. Mc Cain went so far as to say that Reagan would not recognize his own party: "This is not the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan, who was always willing to stand up for freedom all over the world". He insisted that Khadafy was crumbling and that US logistical support, intelligence and refueling capabilities had to be continued to finish him off. He went even further and picked the opportunity to criticize Obama for not using America's own airpower, and instead "leading from behind". This was a theme that Bachman had also used in her speech, somewhat incoherently, since she vilified Obama for allowing the French to lead the operation in Libya while at the same time invoking the War Powers Resolution and demanding US withdrawal, since there were no apparent US interests involved there. Mc Cain in his own interview with Christiane Amanpour, later refuted Bachman's claim by stating that Khadafi had consistently supported terrorism, was responsible for the bombing of Pan Am 103 and was about to massacre his own people at Benghazi when NATO intervened and stopped him. "Our interests are our values" and "Sometimes leadership entails sacrifice," he added.To Romney's equivocal reference to the "Afghanis (sic) war of Independence" (an expression that per se brings serious doubts to his basic knowledge of geopolitics) Senator Lindsay Graham also in his own interview, later retorted: "This is not a war of Afghan independence, from my point of view" (of course, it isn't, it's a civil war!). He continued: "This is the center of gravity against the war on terror, radical Islam. It is in our national security interest to make sure that the Taliban never come back". He warned them not to try to position themselves to "the Left" of President Obama on this issue" and he hinted that that decision would lose them the nomination.Among the wide array of opinions, only Tim Pawlenty heeded the party line that the advice of military commanders and the situation on the ground would be the main determinant of troop withdrawals under his watch. Outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates criticized the "declinists" who put the short term expediency politics ahead of long-term national security interests. He added that examining the bottom line only is short-sighted, since intervention is not about sheer cost, it is about the cost of failure of early withdrawals, such as Afghanistan in 1989. Earlier, on his last trip as defense secretary, Gates had bluntly told NATO members meeting in Brussels that the military weakness of most members and their lack of will to share risks and costs of NATO operations were putting severe strains on the organization and particularly on the United States. Indeed, less than a third of NATO members are taking part in the Libyan operation, although NATO is a consensus- based organization and therefore, all members voted to approve it.According Secretary Gates, the need to cut spending and radically reduce the budget has become an obsession and sparked a new current of isolationism that now insidiously divides the traditionally hawkish Republican Party. This, he told a Newsweek interviewer, is one of the main reasons that have led to his resignation, after serving two administrations and becoming the epitome of bipartisanship. His unwillingness to plan for more withdrawals and find other ways to reduce the bloated defense budget has been criticized both from the Left and the Right. He complains about how both "Congress budget hawks and defense hawks" constantly interfere with his work. He ends by saying he refuses to be part of a nation that is forced to scale back its military power so much that it can no longer lead. His frustration is apparent; his resignation paved the way for Obama's announcement of troop withdrawal, a few days later.This last week, the presidential politics of war became clearer. Feeling the pressure of Republicans attacking him from his "left flank", President Obama told a war-weary nation that he plans to start withdrawing troops by December this year, ending the surge by the summer of 2012 and bringing home most of the rest by 2014. Although there is a widespread sense that Obama has gotten so involved in the daily details of the war that would prefer to stay on and see his counterinsurgency policy through, he has quickly readjusted to the realities at home and accelerated the withdrawal timeline that his generals had recommended. With his earlier decisions of aggressively pursuing the war on terror, signing off on drone killing missions, and having bin Laden killed inside Pakistan, he successfully beat the image of a Dovish President, weak in National Security. This past Wednesday, with the words, "It is time to do nation-building at home", he acknowledged the public's concerns about the waste of American power, blood and treasure abroad while the country is still suffering from the recession, and quickly moved back to center.This is the spirit of the times. It requires a new type of leadership, one that is strong enough to face down enemies, yet flexible enough to accommodate to the new and constantly shifting realities, to accept a revised status of the nation and to lead it into new era in its history. Time will show whether such leader is among the Republicans new line-up or whether he is already in the White House.Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
The papers in the present SUERF Study is a selection of the papers presented at a SUERF Workshop and Special OeNB East Jour Fixe held at Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna on 23 January 2009. In his opening remarks (chapter 2), Ewald Nowotny, Governor of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank referred to Austrian banks? engagement with neighbouring Central and Eastern European Countries. The current crisis should not make people forget the fact that Austrian banks? deep engagement with the neighbouring countries is one of the success stories in Austrian economic history. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Austrian banks have become one of the driving forces of the process of structural adjustment, modernization of business practices, and deepening of financial intermediation in the region. At end 2007, in Central Europe, the share of Austrian banks surpassed a fifth of aggregate sector assets, in Southeastern Europe even a third of the respective total. A considerable share of the earnings of Austrian banks comes from banking activities in Central and Eastern Europe. Austrian bankers can claim to be among the pioneer foreign investors in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakstan and Belarus. The international financial crisis has from September 2008 demonstrated Russia?s structural vulnerability. The comprehensive countermeasures by the Russian authorities to assist the banking sector and the economy are characterized by the Governor as worthy endeavours. Chapter 3 is based on the keynote speech by Pekka Sutela, BOFIT, Bank of Finland ?Russian Finance: Drag or Booster for Future Growth?? The author praises the Russian authorities for having made prudent decisions in recent years. The Putin-Kudrin regime chose a stability-oriented macro policy. The very strong increase in the global oil price up to 2008 implied a strong growth in the value of Russian exports and lead to an impressive GDP growth. The author uses the term ?windfall?. The Russian Government decided to pay back practically all foreign debt, much of it ahead of schedule. The regime wanted to bring back what they see as Russian sovereignty and in particular to avoid being dependent on IMF or other foreign financiers. Their policy contributed strongly to an improvement of Russia?s general credit-worthiness and to a growth in foreign reserves. During the 1990s, lack of trust in the rouble had as consequence that the US dollar was applied to a considerable extent in payments between Russians. The stability oriented policy after 2001 contributed to a de-dollarization of the economy up to 2008. It follows from the stability-oriented policy that Russia was relatively well prepared when it was hit by the global financial crisis in 2007?2008. In the autumn of 2008, however, the general public started to withdraw bank deposits and the relative share of foreign exchange deposits increased again. The public shifted towards foreign currency cash assets. The author explains that Russia has a dual economy. The natural resource based sectors are clearly globally competitive but the sectors outside the resource sectors are not. The big resource based companies have relied on foreign markets for their financial needs. The home market is primarily serviced by domestic banks. At the end of September 2008, government-controlled banks had 47.8% of all bank assets. The state maintains banking sector stability primarily through state banks. The author?s answer to the question in the headline is: ?The Russian financial system is rather a drag than a booster for future growth?. In addition, it is unlikely that Russia will become a regional financial centre or an inventionbased society in the foreseeable future. Chapter 4 by Stephan Barisitz, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, is ?Russian Banking in Recent Years: Gaining Depth in a Fragile Environment.? The author shows tables with macroeconomic, monetary and financial indicators for Russia for the years 2002?2008. Key observations are: Strong economic growth, strong dependence on oil prices, inflation problems, recent volatility of private capital in- and outflows. Banking development initially featured rather slow recovery from the financial crisis of 1998, coupled with sluggish reforms. This was followed by a stepped-up pace of institutional and structural adjustments in 2003?2005, which brought about major improvements of banking activities and of the regulatory framework. The return on equity (ROE) of banks was in 2006?2007 above 20%. The solvency ratio of banks declined steadily up to 2008 due to strong growth in bank assets. The oil price driven improvements in Russia?s terms of trade over the period 1998 to 2008 combined with political stability, prudent macroeconomic policies and some successful institutional and structural reforms have supported Russian economic expansion. Not only exports, but also consumption, have driven strong GDP growth. Financial intermediation continued to deepen swiftly in Russia up to the fall of 2008, despite important repercussions of the US subprime crisis. As the interbank market tightened during 2008 and capital outflows increased, Central Bank of Russia reacted quickly with repeated liquidity interventions. Following the continuous oil price decline and pressures on the rouble, Central Bank of Russia intervened extensively in the foreign exchange market and draw down foreign exchange reserves. The controlled depreciation strategy initiated in November 20078 has not stopped the decline in foreign exchange reserves. Due to the still sizable foreign reserves, the relatively high profitability of banking activity and the satisfactory capital adequacy level as shock absorbing factors, Russia seems to be in a better position to handle the financial crisis than many other countries. Chapter 5 by Alexander Lehmann, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has the headline ?Banks and Financial Reform: Their Role in Sustaining Russia?s Growth.? The paper focuses on the strength of the link between economic growth and financial development. Even in East European transition countries where a positive correlation between finance and growth developed in the 1990s, there was little microeconomic evidence that the financial sector actively supported growth. Investments were overwhelmingly financed through retained earnings, and what little external finance was raised came from foreign direct investment. Around year 2000, this changed. Regulatory improvements, better enforcement and rapid development of individual institutions meant that the financial sector undoubtedly has supported economic growth since year 2000. The disruption to credit growth since 2008 and the simultaneous downturn of the Russian real economy has made the link abundantly clear. EBRD evaluates the progress in structural reforms in transition countries by means of ?transition scores?. The author shows an exhibit which illustrates the development of the EBRD transition score for Russia from 1989 to 2006. It shows that the fastest progress took place from 1995 to 2003. The improvements in the regulatory framework for banking activity supported financial intermediation and Russian banks expanded their balance sheets and diversified into lending to retail customers and SMEs. For corporate investment as a whole, however, the share of new investment financed through bank credit remained relatively small. The sectors that saw sharp increases in investment and accounted for the bulk of capital spending, predominantly benefited from internal cash flows, or benefited from public support or ownership. Chapter 6 by Cyril Pineau-Valencienne, CEO, CPV Conseil, is ?Russian financial institutions and the oil and gas sector: funding and recycling.? The paper first outlines the importance of the oil and gas sector for the Russian economy. Capital expenditures in the sector grew strongly from 1999 to 2007. The huge investments were to a large extent financed by internal operating cash flows and by borrowing in international financial markets. The big oil and gas companies are important customers for foreign banks. The companies also have their own so-called raw material banks but these banks have not played a major role as related parties in the financing of the investments of these groups. The willingness of the oil and gas companies to incur debt denominated in foreign currency must be understood in the light of their revenue structure. Contracts in the global energy markets are primarily denominated in US-dollars and the companies are therefore to a considerable extent able to match currency revenues from exports with currency payments of principal and interest. Recycling of funds related to the oil and gas sector has partly been carried out by the state and by the sovereign funds controlled by the state. Revenue from export duties has been accumulated in the funds and applied in accordance with the funds? investment strategies. Chapter 7 is based on the presentation by Zuzana Fungácová, BOFIT, Bank of Finland ?Risk-taking by Russian banks: do location, ownership and size matter?? The paper is co-authored by Laura Solanko. The rapid growth of the assets of Russian banks has in the last 6?7 years contributed to a decrease in the capital adequacy ratio, thus influencing the ability of banks to cope with risk. In the paper, the authors investigate the relationship between bank characteristics and risk-taking. The banks are divided into different subgroups by size, ownership and location. The authors distinguish between state-controlled, foreign-controlled and domestic private banks. Risk is measured in two different ways: By group-wise comparisons of financial risk ratios i.e. accounting data, and by regression analysis of bank insolvency risk as measured by a Z-score indicator. The average level of financial ratios are all well above the regulatory minima set by Central Bank of Russia. Large banks in Russia have higher insolvency risk than small ones. Foreign-owned banks exhibit higher insolvency risk than domestic banks. State-controlled banks are on average more stable than the private domestic banks. Similar to the case of foreign banks, large state-controlled banks are more stable than the others. Regional banks are significantly more prone to risk-taking than their counterparts in Moscow. Chapter 8 is based on the keynote speech ?Russia?s Financial Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Prospects? by Zeljko Bogetic, World Bank, Moscow. Until mid-2008, Russia was viewed as a ?safe haven? during turbulent times in global financial markets. Record high oil prices, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, lack of exposure of Russian banks to the US sub-prime mortgage markets, strong ratings and a strong appreciating currency explained the confidence in Russia. After mid-2008 Russia was hit. There was an oil price shock, a sudden stop in capital flows, and a sharp tightening of external borrowing conditions. The paper contains a diagram that documents an almost perfect correlation of the Russian stock index RTS with the price of oil. From the peaks in May-June 2008 to the end of the year, the RTS moved from 2400 to 440 and the oil price from USD 144 per barrel to USD 45 per barrel. The non-oil external current account deficit continued to deteriorate very fast in 2008 as import volumes grew faster than non-oil exports. Incoming FDIs declined and worsened the composition of capital flows towards borrowing. While public external debt remained moderate, private (corporate and bank) debt grew rapidly. In the balance sheets of Russian banks, the loan-deposit ratio increased from approximately 107% in 2005 to 127% in the autumn of 2008, making the banking sector more exposed to the interbank market and to rollover risk. As response to the crisis, the Russian authorities have loosened their monetary stance and provided fiscal support to ease the liquidity crisis. The exchange rate has continuously been managed with progressive widening of the bi-currency corridor. After a gradual depreciation since November 2008, the rouble was devalued in mid January 2009. The speaker described the 2009 outlook for the Russian economy as very uncertain. It is likely that the twin surpluses on the Government budget and the balance of payments current account will disappear, but thanks to the prudent macroeconomic policies in recent years, these deficits can be financed for some time. The speaker reflected on the social impact of the crisis. If the recession in 2009 becomes deeper, it might require an introduction of a fiscal stimulus package focusing on domestic demand and the poorer segments of the population, including strengthening of the unemployment, training and social assistance and possibly well designed public works. Chapter 9 is based on the presentation by Peter Havlik, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) ?Russian Economy and the Global Turmoil.? The paper contains very illustrative exhibits that show the development of Russian GDP, exports, imports, inflation, money supply, stock prices and nominal and real exchange rates. Among the Putin administration?s key achievements, he lists improved living standards, rising employment, more FDI inflows, repayment of external debt, ballooning foreign exchange reserves, restoring stability, stronger role of the state but also deteriorating external relations. Despite strong economic fundamentals, Russia has been seriously hit by the global crisis. The Medvedev administration faces serious challenges. It plans to use industrial policy instruments in order to reduce the dependence on energy proceeds. The Government offers targeted support to various public-private partnership projects in the automotive, aviation, shipbuilding and selected high-tech industries. According to the speaker, some of the envisaged industrial policy tools could well be in conflict with WTO rules and make Russia?s WTO accession more difficult. Chapter 10 is based on the workshop contribution by Debora Revoltella, UniCredit Group ?The Russian Banking Sector: What to Expect? The paper is co-authored by Vladimir V.Osakovsky and Valery Invushin. It is divided in three sections: 1) The past: Russian economic renaissance, 2) The crisis: Politics and Economics join forces, and 3) Longer term prospects are brighter. Up to 2008, Russia enjoyed strong growth in domestic investment, consumption and GDP. Prudent fiscal policy and massive capital inflows helped to amass the world?s third largest international reserves. The country was, however, exposed to global commodities prices, a demographic crisis, a rigid labour market and an increasing dependence on foreign sources of funding. The crisis in 2008 was triggered by collapse of global commodities prices, massive capital flight, failures of some large market participants and general loss of confidence abroad and at home. As reaction to the challenges posed by the crisis, the Government and Central bank of Russia initiated corporate debt refinancing assistance, liquidity infusion into the banking system and fiscal stimuli. The authors expect a major restructuring of the Russian banking sector including a considerable reduction of the number of financial institutions.
A solid financial armor could not protect Thailand against the impact of the global financial crisis on its real economy. Despite a sound banking system and low external vulnerabilities, the Thai economy contracted 5.7 percent between October 2008 and March 2009, as the magnitude and speed of the contraction in foreign demand, and resulting shock to the real economy, has been greater than anticipated. There continues to be little impact of the global financial crisis on Thailand's banks: liquidity remained adequate as financial institutions did not face solvency concerns given their adequate capitalization and lack of exposure to 'toxic' assets or risky derivative contracts. The combination of a sound financial sector, low external roll-over and balance-of-payment financing requirements, and, more recently, large current account surpluses, has led to capital inflows, build-up in reserves and an appreciation of the Baht relative to other currencies in the region. However, the impact of the global crisis on the real sector was far more severe than expected. Export volumes contracted by 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to the World Bank's forecast in December of a 3.0 percent expansion. Exports contracted a further 16 percent in the first quarter of 2009. The aggravation of Thailand's political crisis, which had been dampening investor and consumer confidence since 2006, compounded the shock to the real economy. As a result, real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 after 38 quarters of growth, and is expected to contract for 2009 as a whole, the first annual contraction since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.
Worldwide, Lao PDR has been identified among 57 countries with a critical shortage and skewed distribution of its health workforce, especially in remote and rural areas (Guilbert 2006, World Bank 2015). Healthcare education is provided by the public sector through nine public health training institutes in the country: The University of Health Sciences (UHS) in Vientiane Capital provides medical related programs including medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, medical technology, nursing basic sciences and post graduate studies, with the other institutions located at provincial levels: three Regional Public Health Colleges, four Provincial Public Health Schools and one Nursing School. The annual output from these institutions is approximately 2,000 (Department of Organization and Personnel (DOP), 2013). This study focuses on supply-side policies to determine the key challenges and policy implications regarding improved availability and retention of staff in remote areas. This possibly stems from, among other reasons, the following: (a) limited government quotas to recruit and place health workers in rural areas (i.e. in 2013 1,045 recruitment quotas were allocated to MOH, of which 882 (84.4 percent) were given to provinces, districts and health centers nationwide); (b) health workers'preference to work in urban areas with better income and professional career development opportunities; and (c) low self-confidence of new graduates to work independently in rural areas which is attributable to insufficient clinical practice during training, due in part to the excessive number of student intakes to training institutes. The shortage of middle and high level health workers at primary and secondary health care facility levels leads to a major gap in access to quality health care services between urban and rural areas.
The health equity and financial protection reports are short country-specific volumes that provide a picture of equity and financial protection in the health sectors of low-and middle-income countries. Topics covered include: inequalities in health outcomes, health behavior and health care utilization; benefit incidence analysis; financial protection; and the progressivity of health care financing. Malawi's government is committed to improving equity and financial protection in the health sector. Equity is explicitly mentioned as one of the four objectives in the Health Sector Strategic Plan (HSSP). The overall objective of the HSSP is to contribute towards Malawi's attainment of the health and related millennium development goals. The specific objectives of the HSSP are, therefore, to: 1) increase coverage of the high quality Essential Health Package (EHP) services; 2) reduce risk factors to health; 3) improve equity and efficiency in the delivery of quality EHP services; and 4) strengthen the performance of the health system to support delivery of EHP services. Malawi spends 6.2 per cent (2009) of its gross domestic product (GDP) on health. This is similar to the average spending in other lower income countries in Africa, which have spent an average of 6.5 per cent (2009) of their GDP on health. The central Ministry of health is responsible for the development and enforcement of health policy, regulation of the health sector, creation of standards and norms, allocation and management of resources, provision of technical support, coordination, and monitoring and evaluation.
In this paper, the authors discuss the ways in which national governments, firms, and individuals respond to policy related to food safety, environmental protection, and trade. These responses must be considered in the development of policy to ensure the best possible outcomes. It accounts for uncertainty about policy impacts and scientific knowledge and incorporates stochastic environmental factors. The authors argue use of such a model in the development of health and environmental policy can overcome capture by domestic forces opposed to trade liberalization. The effectiveness of policy, of course, is dependent upon firm and consumer response to policy. Section one describes the impacts of international transfer of species and genetic material, paying particular attention to the introduction of alien invasive species. Section two discusses issues surrounding trade in environmental amenities. Food safety and environmental regulations are reviewed in section three, along with mechanisms by which such policy can serve as a proxy for protectionists. Section four develops a risk assessment model that can be used in policy design. Section five considers the role of institutional, firm and individual behavior in the development and effectiveness of policy. Section six summarizes our analysis in offering an agenda for trade talks.
This article questions current empirical practice in the study of growth. It argues that much of the modern empirical growth literature is based on assumptions about regressors, residuals, and parameters that are implausible from the perspective of both economic theory and the historical experiences of the countries under study. Many of these problems, it argues, are forms of violations of an exchangeability assumption that implicitly underlies standard growth exercises. The article shows that these implausible assumptions can be relaxed by allowing for uncertainty in model specification. Model uncertainty consists of two types: theory uncertainty, which relates to which growth determinants should be included in a model; and heterogeneity uncertainty, which relates to which observations in a data set constitute draw from the same statistical model. The article proposes ways to account for both theory and heterogeneity uncertainty. Finally, using an explicit decision-theoretic framework, the authors describe how one can engage in policy-relevant empirical analysis.
Sudan has the potential to become a dynamic economy and a bread basket for the Arab world and East-Central Africa. However, resource endowment is not sufficient to bring about sustainable growth and prosperity. Sudans macroeconomic conditions remain weak since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, despite some improvements. The repercussions of the secession of South Sudan present enormous challenges for Sudan with respect to managing the macro-fiscal adjustment and promoting a structural re-orientation of the economy. The signing in March 2013 of the implementation matrix of the agreement between Sudan and South Sudan provides some fresh financial relief to Sudan and creates a great opportunity for further policy reforms to address the post-secession challenges. Sudans growth strategy should involve policies aimed at improving the investment climate and broadening private sector-led growth, and diversifying the economy toward non-oil sectors such as agriculture, industry, export, and local trade.
In October 2010, the Government of Madhya Pradesh hosted, with World Bank technical advice, a Conference on higher education reform in the State. The Governor, the Chief Minister and the Minister of Higher Education all addressed the Conference and about 150 people attended the event. Subsequently, four regional Conclaves were organized, in which a total of more than 400 people participated, representing the leadership, administrators, faculty and students at universities and colleges across the State. This represents an impressive outreach to the sector stakeholders. This report is written on the cusp of the publication of the Government of India s 12th Five Year Plan. The indications are that the Government of India intends to push ahead with some significant reforms in the higher education sector. Of particular significance for this report is the emphasis, for the first time, on the need to support the improvement of State universities and colleges. The objective of this report is to provide policy makers in Madhya Pradesh with a menu of options for improving the equity, governance and financing of the higher education system in the State. Though the primary audience is policy makers, this report could serve as part of the continued dialogue with the higher education sector on the direction for reform.
The point of departure of this paper is that in the absence of effectively functioning asset markets the distribution of wealth matters for efficiency. Inefficient asset markets depress total factor productivity (TFP) in two ways: first, by not allowing efficient firms to grow to the size that they should achieve (this could include many great firms that are never started); and second, by allowing inefficient firms to survive by depressing the demand for factors (good firms are too small) and hence factor prices. Both of these effects are dampened when the wealth of the economy is in the hands of the most productive people, again, for two reasons: first, because they do not rely as much on asset markets to get outside resources into the firm; and second, because wealth allows them to self insure and therefore they are more willing to take the right amount of risk. None of this, however, tells us that efficiency enhancing redistributions must always be targeted to the poorest. There is some reason to believe that a lot of the inefficiency lies in the fact that many medium size firms are too small.
Submitted 2020-07-05 | Accepted 2020-08-14 | Available 2020-12-01https://doi.org/10.15414/afz.2020.23.mi-fpap.205-213The African Chicken Genetic Gain (ACGG) project (https://africacgg.net/) aims at backyard poultry optimization by commercial dual-purpose breeds introduction into Africa. To measure benefits, genotype by environment interaction (GxE) analysis provides guidance while predicting environmental effects on production traits of breeds. A survey among Ethiopian poultry smallholders showed egg sale being the most important purpose of keeping village chickens in Oromia. Data was available about laying of 894 ACGG chickens in Oromia. Hence current research questions were: 1) Does GxE take place? 2) Which breed performs best regarding laying and in which environment within Oromia? Traits investigated were egg number and egg weight of five breeds (S-RIR, Sasso, Horro, Kuroiler and Koekoek) located in three zones (East Hararge, East and West Shoa) and 5 districts (Adami Tulu, Bako Tibe, Dano, Dugda and Haromaya) in Oromia. Observations were taken as group measure performing weighted analyses. GxE was only present for egg number with magnitude strongest for zone. S-RIR performed best for both traits in both environments, except Kuroiler performing better in East Shoa for egg number and Koekoek for egg weight. This indicates success of crossbreed S-RIR. Sasso and Horro performed worst supported by previous research for Horro but not Sasso. Low precipitation in East Shoa caused bigger distance in egg number predictions, being higher for S-RIR and lower for Horro and Sasso compared to West Shoa. Apart from these final conclusions, social context of breeding and data collection difficulties should not be forgotten. 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Nella mia tesi ho analizzato i rapporti che intercorsero tra la Chiesa Cattolica e il movimento nazionalista irlandese negli anni in cui esso fu guidato da Charles Sterwart Parnell. Il primo anno interessante al fine delle mie ricerche è il 1878, molto importante per la Chiesa irlandese, dal momento che si spensero il cardinale Cullen, arcivescovo di Dublino, e papa Pio IX. Negli anni precedenti Cullen, che prima di diventare arcivescovo aveva trascorso diversi anni a Roma guadagnandosi la fiducia del Papa, era stato la guida carismatica della Chiesa irlandese. La sua morte causò quindi un vuoto di potere all'interno della Chiesa dell'isola, proprio quando la situazione politica irlandse stava vivendo un momento di grande fermento. Tre cattivi raccolti a partire dal 1877, unitamente al calo dei prezzi dei prodotti agricoli e del bestiame resero insostenibile la situazione degli agricoltori irlandesi. Essi erano per lo più affittuari, coltivavano un appezzamento di terra in cambio del pagamento di un affitto, che ora spesso non erano in grado di pagare, correndo il rischio di essere sfrattati. Fu in questi anni che Charles Sterwart Parnell emerse come leader fra i parlamentari irlandesi nazionalisti che sedevano nel Parlamento britannico. Egli divenne presto un punto di riferimento anche per gli affittuari, in quanto venne eletto presidente dell'Irish Land League, un'associazione creata a loro tutela. La sua influenza in Irlanda divenne tale che fu chiamato Uncrowned King of Ireland, Re d'Irlanda senza corona. Inizialmente, all'interno della Chiesa irlandese, vi fu disaccordo riguardo all'atteggiamento da tenere nei confronti del movimento di Parnell. Monsignor MacCabe, il successore di Cullen alla guida dell'arcidiocesi di Dublino, l'osteggiava mentre altri ecclesiastici, tra cui l'arcivescovo di Cashel monsignor Croke, lo supportavano. Croke e MacCabe si scontrarono con forza allorchè l'arcivescovo di Dublino condannò, in una lettera pastorale, la Ladies' Land League. Alla fine del 1881 la Land League era stata dichiarata illegale e molti suoi leader, incluso Parnell, erano stati tratti in arresto (seppur per breve tempo). I nazionalisti avevano allora creato una nuova associazione formata da donne, la Ladies' Land League, che mons. MacCabe condannò ritenendo immorale il coinvolgimento delle donne nelle questioni politiche. Mons. Croke disapprovava la posizione dell'arcivescovo di Dublino, e presto pervenne alla stampa una lettera in cui utilizzava parole molto dure nei confronti di MacCabe e della sua condotta. Il fatto causò grandi polemiche, e la Santa Sede stessa intervenne in veste di pacificatrice fra i due ecclesiastici. Nel frattempo il Governo britannico cercava, inizialmente con scarso successo, d'indurre la Santa Sede a condannare la collaborazione che stava venendosi a creare fra il movimento di Parnell e alcuni ecclesiastici. Nel 1883 la Congregazione di Propaganda Fide inviò una circolare ai vescovi irlandesi, criticando la partecipazione di molti ecclesiastici a una raccolta di fondi a favore di Parnell. Gli irlandesi però, ritenendo che tale circolare fosse una concessione fatta al Governo, risposero aderendo in massa alla sottoscrizione e la Santa Sede, imbarazzata, riprese a non prestare orecchio alle richieste britanniche. Nel 1885, in seguito alla morte di MacCabe, fu addirittura nominato arcivescovo di Dublino William Walsh, un sacerdote nazionalista malvisto dal Governo. Ciò contribuì a creare una vera e propria alleanza tra il clero irlandese e il movimento di Parnell. La situazione iniziò a cambiare a partire dal 1887. Il desiderio di costruire buoni rapporti con il Regno Unito, la perplessità riguardo alla moralità dei metodi di lotta utilizzati dai nazionalisti irlandesi (specialmente il Plan of Campaign e il Boycotting) e il desiderio di contrbuire alla pacificazione politico-sociale dell'Irlanda furono probabilmente i principali motivi che spinsero il Papa ad interessarsi personalmente della questione irlandese. Egli dunque incaricò il suo Segretario di Stato, cardinale Mariano Rampolla del Tindaro, di occuparsi delle problematiche irlandesi. Rampolla inviò in Irlanda mons. Ignazio Persico in qualità di Delegato Apostolico (una sorta di rappresentante del Papa incaricato d'indagare sulla situazione). Egli confermò molte delle accuse che il Governo muoveva contro il movimento nazionalista, ma sottolineò che in Irlanda vi era molta tensione, e sconsigliò vivamente un intervento della Santa Sede che scavalcasse l'episcopato dell'isola. Il Papa e il suo Segretario di Stato non tennero tuttavia conto di tale consiglio, e si adoperarono perché vi fosse una pronuncia da parte del S. Uffizio, il 'tribunale' ecclesiastico incaricato di giudicare questioni inerenti la Fede e la morale. Esso nel 1888 condannò come immorali il Plan of Campaign e il Boycotting, e proibì a tutti i Cattolici, in particolare ai sacerdoti, di ricorrere a tali forme di protesta. Questa pronuncia del S. Uffizio in Irlanda fu accolta con grande irritazione e causò un periodo di tensione tra la Santa Sede e la Chiesa irlandese, che si risolse solo grazie all'evolversi della situazione politica. Nel 1890 divenne di pubblico dominio la relazione che Parnell intratteneve con una donna sposata. Fu un grave scandalo, che colpì profondamente l'opinione pubblica irlandese e britannica. Esso portò ad una spaccatura del movimento di Parnell e il clero irlandese, con l'approvazione del Papa, appoggiò coloro che avevano abbandonato il leader. Pochi mesi dopo Parnell si spense, e una fase della storia del nazionalismo irlandese volse così al termine. Le relazioni tra la Chiesa e il nazionalismo irlandese sono state studiate da alcuni storici anglofoni, in particolare da Emmet Larkin, Ambrose Macaulay e da Christopher J. Woods. In Italia però questo argomento è quasi sconosciuto, malgrado il coinvolgimento di diverso italiani (il Papa, il cardinale Rampolla, mons. Persico) e l'esistenza di numerosi documenti storico scritti in italiano relativi a questo argomento. Rispetto ad altri studiosi mi sono concentrato maggiormente sui documenti vaticani, e ho cercato di trattare l'argomento in una maniera che possa interessare maggiormente il pubblico italiano. In this thesis I observed the connection between the Catholic Church and the Irish Nationalism in the years of Charles Stewart Parnell's leadership. Firstly, 1878 was found to be interesting for the research. In fact, this year was important for the Irish Church since both Cardinal Cullen, archbishop of Dublin, and Pope Pius IX died. In the previous years Cullen, who before being appointed archbishop had spent many years in Rome, getting the pope's trust, had been the charismatic guide of the Irish Catholic Church. Cullen's death caused a power vacuum in a period of political unrest for Ireland. Starting from 1877, three bad harvests and a drop in prices of crops and livestock exasperated the Irish farmers. Most of them were tenants farming their lot and giving a rent in return. Then, unable to pay their rents, the tenants risked eviction from landlords. In those years Charles Steward Parnell emerged as leader of the Irish nationalists among the deputies sitting in the Parliament of Westminster. He also became a leader for the tenants when he was elected president of the Irish Land League, an association created in defence of the farm tenants. Parnell gained so much influence in the Irish political life that he was called "Uncrowned King of Ireland". There was disagreement in the Irish Catholic Church about its position towards Parnell's movement. Archbishop MacCabe, Cullen's successor of the archdiocese of Dublin, disapproved Parnell's movement, but other priests supported it, even the archbishop of Cashel, Croke. There was a fight between MacCabe and Croke when the archbishop of Dublin condemned, in a pastoral letter, the Ladies' Land League. At the end of 1881 this Land League was declared illegal and many of its leaders, such as Parnell, despite the Irish complaining, were jailed. Then the nationalists created a new league, the Ladies' Land League, but Monsignor MacCabe condemned it because he considered women's involvement in political affairs immoral. Croke strongly disapproved this idea and the press discovered a letter where he used very strong words while talking about MacCabe and his pastoral. This issue provoked great rumours and the Holy See had to intervene as peacemaker between the two clergymen. In the meantime the British government was trying to induce the Holy See to condemn the cooperation between some Irish priests and nationalists, but at the beginning it didn't succeed. In 1883 the Roman Congregation of Propaganda Fide sent a letter to the Irish bishops condemning the involvement of many priests in a pro-Parnell collection of founds. However, the Irish considered this circular as a concession to the British Government and joined en masse to the fund-raising; consequently the Holy See, embarrassed by the result, again started to disregard the British requests. And after the death of MacCabe in 1885 William Walsh, a nationalistic and unpopular priest for the Government, was appointed archbishop of Dublin. This lead to an alliance between the Irish clergy and Parnell's movement. The situation started to change in 1887. Creating good relationship between the Holy See and the United Kingdom, the perplexity on morality of the Irish nationalists means of protest (Boycotting and Plan of Campaign) together with a desire of peace in Ireland were probably the reasons that persuaded the Pope to involve himself in the Irish affairs. He appointed Cardinal Mariano Rampolla del Tindaro as Secretary of State to manage the Irish situation. Cardinal Rampolla sent monsignor Ignazio Persico to Ireland as Apostolic Delegate, a sort of papal commissioner investigating on the situation. He confirmed many of the British charges against Nationalism, but underlined that the situation was very difficult. Persico also advised the Secretary of State against any action without the Irish episcopate approval. Anyway, the Pope and Rampolla preferred to act without the Irish bishops, and insisted on an intervention from the Congregation of the Holy Office. The latter is the supreme court of the Catholic Church in matter of faith and morality. It in 1888 the Plan of Campaign and Boycotting were condemned as immoral, and they were forbidden to every Catholic and especially to the clergy. This verdict was very unpopular in Ireland, and caused tension between the Irish episcopate and the Holy See. This tension ended when was the Irish political situation changed. In 1890 Parnell's relationship with a married woman was discovered. That was a great scandal deeply upsetting Ireland. When, after this scandal, the Irish nationalist party split the Irish clergy, with the Pope's approval, supported those who abandoned Parnell. After some months Parnell died and a stage of the Irish nationalism came to an end. The relationship between Parnellism and the Catholic Church is being studied by some British historians like Emmet Larkin, Ambrose Macaulay, and Christopher J. Woods. But this topic is still unknown in Italy, although it involved many Italians like the Pope, Cardinal Rampolla, monsignor Persico and despite the fact it concerned many Italian documents. I hope, with my thesis, to make known this topic also in Italy, by looking to the Irish situation from a 'Roman' prospective.
It gives me great pleasure to accept the invitation to address this conference on "Meeting the Challenges of Cultural Diversity in the Irish Healthcare Sector" which is being organised by the Irish Health Services Management Institute in partnership with the National Consultative Committee on Racism and Interculturalism. The conference provides an important opportunity to develop our knowledge and understanding of the issues surrounding cultural diversity in the health sector from the twin perspectives of patients and staff. Cultural diversity has over recent years become an increasingly visible aspect of Irish society bringing with it both opportunities and challenges. It holds out great possibilities for the enrichment of all who live in Ireland but it also challenges us to adapt creatively to the changes required to realise this potential and to ensure that the experience is a positive one for all concerned but particularly for those in the minority ethnic groups. In the last number of years in particular, the focus has tended to be on people coming to this country either as refugees, asylum seekers or economic migrants. Government figures estimate that as many as 340,000 immigrants are expected in the next six years. However ethnic and cultural diversity are not new phenomena in Ireland. Travellers have a long history as an indigenous minority group in Ireland with a strong culture and identity of their own. The changing experience and dynamics of their relationship with the wider society and its institutions over time can, I think, provide some valuable lessons for us as we seek to address the more numerous and complex issues of cultural diversity which have arisen for us in the last decade. Turning more specifically to the health sector which is the focus of this conference, culture and identity have particular relevance to health service policy and provision in that The first requirement is that we in the health service acknowledge cultural diversity and the differences in behaviours and in the less obvious areas of values and beliefs that this often implies. Only by acknowledging these differences in a respectful way and informing ourselves of them can we address them. Our equality legislation – The Employment Equality Act, 1998 and the Equal Status Act, 2000 – prohibits discrimination on nine grounds including race and membership of the Traveller community. The Equal Status Act prohibits discrimination on an individual basis in relation to the nine grounds while for groups it provides for the promotion of equality of opportunity. The Act applies to the provision of services including health services. I will speak first about cultural diversity in relation to the patient. In this respect it is worth mentioning that the recognition of cultural diversity and appropriate responses to it were issues which were strongly emphasised in the public consultation process which we held earlier this year in the context of developing National Anti-Poverty targets for the health sector and also our new national health strategy. Awareness and sensitivity training for staff is a key requirement for adapting to a culturally diverse patient population. The focus of this training should be the development of the knowledge and skills to provide services sensitive to cultural diversity. Such training can often be most effectively delivered in partnership with members of the minority groups themselves. I am aware that the Traveller community, for example, is involved in in-service training for health care workers. I am also aware that the National Consultative Committee on Racism and Interculturalism has been involved in training with the Eastern Regional Health Authority. We need to have more such initiatives. A step beyond the sensitivity training for existing staff is the training of members of the minority communities themselves as workers in our health services. Again the Traveller community has set an example in this area with its Primary Health Care Project for Travellers. The Primary Health Care for Travellers Project was established in 1994 as a joint partnership initiative with the Eastern Health Board and Pavee Point, with ongoing technical assistance being provided from the Department of Community Health and General Practice, Trinity College, Dublin. This project was the first of its kind in the country and has facilitated The project included a training course which concentrated on skills development, capacity building and the empowerment of Travellers. This confidence and skill allowed the Community Health Workers to go out and conduct a baseline survey to identify and articulate Travellers' health needs. This was the first time that Travellers were involved in this process; in the past their needs were assumed. The results of the survey were fed back to the community and they prioritised their needs and suggested changes to the health services which would facilitate their access and utilisation. Ongoing monitoring and data collection demonstrates a big improvement in levels of satisfaction and uptake and ulitisation of health services by Travellers in the pilot area. This Primary Health Care for Travellers initiative is being replicated in three other areas around the country and funding has been approved for a further 9 new projects. This pilot project was the recipient of a WHO 50th anniversary commemorative award in 1998. The project is developing as a model of good practice which could inspire further initiatives of this type for other minority groups. Access to information has been identified in numerous consultative processes as a key factor in enabling people to take a proactive approach to managing their own health and that of their families and in facilitating their access to health services. Honouring our commitment to equity in these areas requires that information is provided in culturally appropriate formats. The National Health Promotion Strategy 2000-2005, for example, recognises that there exists within our society many groups with different requirements which need to be identified and accommodated when planning and implementing health promotion interventions. These groups include Travellers, refugees and asylum seekers, people with intellectual, physical or sensory disability and the gay and lesbian community. The Strategy acknowledges the challenge involved in being sensitive to the potential differences in patterns of poor health among these different groups. The Strategic aim is to promote the physical, mental and social well-being of individuals from these groups. The objective of the Strategy on these issues are: While our long term aim may be to mainstream responses so that our health services is truly multicultural, we must recognise the need at this point in time for very specific focused responses particularly for groups with poor health status such as Travellers and also for refugees and asylum seekers. In the case of refugees and asylum seekers examples of targeted services are screening for communicable diseases – offered on a voluntary basis – and psychological support services for those who have suffered trauma before coming here. The two approaches of targeting and mainstreaming are not mutually exclusive. A combination of both is required at this point in time but the balance between them must be kept under constant review in the light of changing needs. A major requirement if we are to meet the challenge of cultural diversity is an appropriate data and research base. I think it is important that we build up our information and research data base in partnership with the minority groups themselves. We must establish what the health needs of diverse groups are; we must monitor uptake of services and how well we are responding to needs and we must monitor outcomes and health status. We must also examine the impact of the policies in other sectors on the health of minority groups. The National Health Information Strategy, currently being developed, and the recently published National Strategy for Health Research – Making Knowledge Work for Health provide important frameworks within which we can improve our data and research base. A culturally diverse health sector workforce – challenges and opportunities The Irish health service can benefit greatly from successful international recruitment. There has been a strong non-national representation amongst the medical profession for more than 30 years. More recently there have been significant increases in other categories of health service workers from overseas. The Department recognises the enormous value that overseas recruitment brings over a wide range of services and supports the development of effective and appropriate recruitment strategies in partnership with health service employers. These changes have made cultural diversity an important issue for all health service organisations. Diversity in the workplace is primarily about creating a culture that seeks, respects, values and harnesses difference. This includes all the differences that when added together make each person unique. So instead of the focus being on particular groups, diversity is about all of us. Change is not about helping "them" to join "us" but about critically looking at "us" and rooting out all aspects of our culture that inappropriately exclude people and prevent us from being inclusive in the way we relate to employees, potential employees and clients of the health service. International recruitment benefits consumers, Irish employees and the overseas personnel alike. Regardless of whether they are employed by the health service, members of minority groups will be clients of our service and consequently we need to be flexible in order to accommodate different cultural needs. For staff, we recognise that coming from other cultures can be a difficult transition. Consequently health service employers have made strong efforts to assist them during this period. Many organisations provide induction courses, religious facilities (such as prayer rooms) and help in finding suitable accommodation. The Health Service Employers Agency (HSEA) is developing an equal opportunities/diversity strategy and action plans as well as training programmes to support their implementation, to ensure that all health service employment policies and practices promote the equality/diversity agenda to continue the development of a culturally diverse health service. The management of this new environment is extremely important for the health service as it offers an opportunity to go beyond set legal requirements and to strive for an acceptance and nurturing of cultural differences. Workforce cultural diversity affords us the opportunity to learn from the working practices and perspectives of others by allowing personnel to present their ideas and experience through teamwork, partnership structures and other appropriate fora, leading to further improvement in the services we provide. It is important to ensure that both personnel units and line managers communicate directly with their staff and demonstrate by their actions that they intend to create an inclusive work place which doesnÃ'´t demand that minority staff fit. Contented, valued employees who feel that there is a place for them in the organisation will deliver a high quality health service. Your conference here today has two laudable aims – to heighten awareness and assist health care staff to work effectively with their colleagues from different cultural backgrounds and to gain a greater understanding of the diverse needs of patients from minority ethnic backgrounds. There is a synergy in these aims and in the tasks to which they give rise in the management of our health service. The creative adaptations required for one have the potential to feed into the other. I would like to commend both organisations which are hosting this conference for their initiative in making this event happen, particularly at this time – Racism in the Workplace Week. I look forward very much to hearing the outcome of your deliberations. Thank you.