Striking, overtime bans and refusing to carry out certain tasks[1] are collective forms of actions that can arise from workplace disputes. These industrial actions are of fundamental importance: the temporary halt in work production leverages a demand to enforce workers' rights. Despite this, the UK does not recognise the legal right to withdraw labour. Instead, the UK's "right to strike" is said to depend on a complex statutory scheme[2]. This article will analyse a variety of sources, "statutes such as TULRCA 1992, the common law, Convention rights, and relevant case law[3]", to determine whether the UK's "right to strike" "is a classic instance of a 'legislated' right[4]" or if it is merely a "slogan/legal metaphor[5]". [1] Hugh Collins, Aileen McColgan and Keith D Ewing,Labour Law(2nd edn, Cambridge University press 2019) pg.706. [2] Alan Bogg and Ruth Dukes, 'Statutory Interpretation and The Limits of a Human Rights Approach: Royal Mail Group Ltd V Communication Workers Union' (2020) 49(3) Industrial Law Journal pg.478. [3] Ibid, pg.478. [4] Ibid, pg.478. [5] Metrobus v UNITE [2009] EWCA Civ 829 (Maurice Kay LJ). - 'In truth, the "right to strike" in the UK depends for its realisation on a complex statutory scheme. Even in jurisdictions where the right to strike is specified textually in a constitutional document, such a complex right must be operationalised through labour statutes. It is a classic instance of a "legislated" right. Since the enactment of the Human Rights Act, and the evolving jurisprudence of the ECtHR, UK law may now be described as protecting a right to strike albeit one that is pieced together from a variety of sources: statutes such as TULRCA, the common law, Convention rights, and relevant case law.'[1] Does this statement accurately encapsulate the UK law on the 'right to strike'? How do the different sources of law interact and what factors determine the correct balance to be reached between competing interests in regulating industrial action? Use case law, statute, legal commentary and social science material in your answer and provide illustrations to support your analysis. In line with socialism and Professor Beverly Silver's assertions, capitalism is established upon 'two contradictory tendencies': 'crises of profitability and crises of social legitimacy'.[2] This 'inherent labour-capital'[3] struggle is reflected within the UK's hostile regulation of industrial action. The courts' and legislature's ideological approaches towards the collective right to withdraw labour unanimously and substantially favours economic growth above social welfare.[4] Striking, overtime bans, and refusing to carry out certain tasks are collective forms of actions that can arise from workplace disputes.[5] These disputes typically occur because employers are unwilling to negotiate with employees and workers about their working terms or conditions. Undeniably, the duration – and the aftermath – of the collective action results in financial losses to the business and affect innocent third parties (i.e. the general public).[6] Therefore, in order to appease and 'bring the labour under control', the capital would 'have to make concessions [i.e. comply with the strikers' new terms], which provoke crises of profitability'.[7] However, the loss suffered by a business[8] during and after industrial action is justified on two persuasive grounds. The first ground identified by Gwyneth Pitt is the human right aspect.[9] To restrict the right to strike would be akin to the horrific period of slavery,[10] where man had no power to withdraw his labour. This justification is recognising the inequalities in bargaining power between employer and employee.[11] This inequality has been further escalated by the growth of the modern-day unstable gig economy; one in nine UK workers are in precarious work.[12] This form of work has limited protection and much lower salaries.[13] Hence, a subsequent ground for the justification of withdrawal of labour is the equilibrium argument. The power of the employer and their actions can only be matched and questioned by a 'concerted stoppage of work'.[14] Essentially, the right to strike is more than the withdrawal of labour: it is also the encompassing 'right to free expression, association, assembly and power'.[15] Yet there is 'no positive legal right to strike in the UK'.[16] Instead, 'the "right to strike" in the UK depends for its realisation on a complex statutory scheme'.[17] In contrast to its neighbouring European countries' (Spain and Italy) jurisdictions 'where the right to strike is specified textually in a constitutional document', the UK law 'protects a right to strike … from a variety of sources: statutes such as TULRCA, the common law, Convention rights, and relevant case law'.[18] The accuracy of Bogg and Dukes' encapsulation of the UK law on the 'right to strike' and how the different sources of law interact will be subsequently discussed. Common Law Judiciary While Spain[19] and Italy[20] protect the right to strike by suspending the contract of employment during industrial action, this contract is broken under English law.[21] This is because the English common law does not confer a right to strike,[22] hence 'the rigour of the common law applies in the form of a breach of contract on part of the strikers and economic torts … [for] the organisers and their union'.[23] It is tortious and indefensible[24] to induce an individual to breach their contract of employment.[25] This principle was established in Lumley v Gye,[26] and this liability extends to trade unions in the context of industrial action.[27] Additionally, there are two further economic torts trade unions can be held liable for: liability for conspiracy to injure (Quinn v Leathem)[28] and causing loss by unlawful means. UntilOBG Ltd v Allan, Douglas, and others v Hello! Ltd,[29] the 'tort of procuring a breach of contract had been ["blurred"[30] and] extended [to be a wider] tort of unlawful interference with contractual relations'.[31] These torts were later distinguished and separated in the House of Lord's (HoL) judgment of OBG v Allan. While it is not often, the courts are encouraged to distinguish and introduce new torts. The HoL in OBG v Allan subsequently outlined the distinguishing elements between unlawful means and the tort of procuring a breach of contract. The tort of procuring a breach of contract is an accessory liability. Whilst the tort of unlawful means is a 'primary liability that is not dependent on the third party having committed a wrong against the claimant'.[32] Yet, despite the tort differences, the HoL confirmed that the same act could give rise to liability under both unlawful interference and procuring a breach of contract.[33] This clarification and the development of unlawful interferences as a separate liability has notably accommodated employers in holding trade unions liable for more than one tort. The OBG v Allan judgment is significant for discussing industrial action for two notable reasons. The first is that it confirms the judiciary's 'uncontrolled power'[34] in developing and 'defining torts boundaries on a case-to-case basis.[35] This power is 'ensur[ing] that trade unions cannot provide a lawful excuse or justification for their actions'[36]; trade unions are ultimately 'stood naked and unprotected at the altar of the common law'.[37] The insufficiency of protection for trade unions under the common law exhibits the judiciary's biased and hostile ideology towards industrial action.[38] This subsequently aligns with the following observation: the courts favour economic profits. This is discerned by the extent to which the contemporary judiciary extends protection for commercial bodies.[39] The primary function of English tort law was to protect physical integrity and property rights; tort law was never concerned with the protection of economic interests.[40] Nor had the common law ever been historically exercised to 'legitimately control aspects of the economy'[41] and yet OBG v Allan demonstrates the extent to which this has now changed. The judiciary has extensively and needlessly stretched the common law and its torts[42] to protect 'already powerful organisations'.[43] Hence, from the perspective of trade unions and their members, the common law's (inadequate) protection for the 'right to strike' has been, undeniably, very disappointing. Statutes Legislature One of the major problems facing trade unions was the 'exposure of their funds to legal action by employers'[44]; in 1901, Taff Vale Railway Co successfully sued the Amalgamated Society of Railway Servants union for £42,000.[45] This sum is equivalent to £5,196,328.39 today. This verdict, in effect, eliminated 'the strike as a weapon of organized labour'.[46] Naturally, workers turned to political parties for redress. The concern and advocacy for trade union reform accounted for 59% of the winning Liberal party's election manifesto.[47] The Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Henry Campbell-Bannerman, provided unions with wide immunity against any tortious liability arising from trade disputes under The Trade Disputes Act (TDA) 1906. Although this Act did not introduce a 'legislated right' for industrial action,[48] this statute effectively recognised the vulnerability of unions under the common law by 'secur[ing] a [statutory] freedom' instead. [49] The TDA is one of the 'mostimportantpieces oflabour legislationever passed by a British Parliament'[50]; it effectively 'kept the courts at a minimum'[51] and neutralised the most obvious adverse effects of the Taff Vale judgment. The 'sympathetic politicians' were 'periodically reconstructing' the role of the 'class-conscious', profit-favouring judiciary.[52] The outcome of the 1906 general election 'served the unions' interests well'[53] and it continued to for 65 years. The 'long enjoyed'[54] immunity of trade unions for liability in tort was reduced to partial immunity under the Thatcher government (1979-90). There is a 'scale of government ideology' which ranges from 'fully participative' to 'fully authoritative',[55] and the Thatcher government was the undoubtable latter. The Conservative ideology and economists, such as FA Hayek, viewed trade unions as an obstacle to economic growth.[56] This perception was heightened by the Winter of Discontent (1978-79): a period characterised by widespread of strikes in response to the Labour government's wage cap (to maintain falling inflation).[57] Subsequently, Thatcher's government further justified the re-introduction of liability for trade unions upon the succeeding Green Papers: the 1981 Trade Union Immunities[58] and the 1989 Trade Unions and their Members.[59] Both papers outlined concerns regarding democracy, rights, and freedom of trade union members; 'too often in recent years it has seemed that employees have been called out on strike by their unions without proper consultation and sometimes against their express wishes'.[60] Accordingly, the Thatcher government introduced legislation that prior Conservative governments were afeard of passing: the Employment Act 1980, Trade Union Act 1984, and Trade Union Reform and Employment Rights Act 1993. These re-introduced vulnerability and high costs for unions. Under the Employment Rights Act 1980, 'trade-dispute' was re-defined, statutory liabilities were introduced and unions were exposed to injunctions and claims for damages. However, upon complying with the stringent balloting requirements (from secret ballot to the requirement for all ballots to be postal) in the 1984 and 1993 Acts, the dispute would be deemed lawful.[61] It is expensive for unions to comply and evidence the fulfilled balloting requirements, but if lawful union members are statutorily protected from unfair dismissals and injunctions.[62] While this is a brief summary of the Acts, these restrictive measures offer an insight into the Thatcher government's success in exercising its agenda of restricting the lawfulness of industrial action by limiting its previously protected scope and purposes. Subsequently, the process of placing further controls on trade unions continued into the 21st century.[63] The 2015 Conservative government introduced the 'draconian'[64] Trade Union Act 2016 (TUA) – the most significant union legislation since the Employment Act 1980. The TUA introduced a minimum threshold of eligible members to vote in the ballot (at least 50% turnout and 50% voting in favour).[65] Moreover, in the instance the members are engaged in 'important public services',[66] 40% of all members entitled to vote must have voted in support of the industrial action. These stringent procedural requirements have to be strictly followed for a strike to be lawful.[67] Oddly, there was no pressing need to introduce these restrictive measures.[68] There were no significant problems in industrial relations at the time (ie, Winter of Discontent) nor any significant 'pressure from business for further laws on strikes',[69] but the Conservative government justified these 2016 measures through the findings of Bruce Carr QC and Ed Holmes.[70] The Government submitted the Carr Review to indicate a consistent pattern of union bullying workers, and yet Carr himself 'did not contend his findings to be a sufficient basis' for influencing the TUA.[71] Instead, the true motivations behind the government's 2016 legislative programme are observed by the 'striking resemblance'[72] to Ed Holmes Modernising Industrial Relations (MIR) paper.[73] The policy paper daringly questioned the necessity of protecting industrial action by reflecting on the development of employment tribunals and discussing the economic consequences of strikes. The same 'free-market economic theory' that underpinned the MIR's recommendations 'drove' the pragmatically restrictive and economically influenced 2016 statute developments.[74] The substance of today's statute in protecting trade unions 'is far removed and much weaker than the position established in 1906'.[75] Since the Henry Campbell-Bannerman leadership, trade union membership has declined by more than half due to the 'three successive Conservative governments [who] have enacted labour legislation opposed by unions'.[76] It appears the deep-rooted ideology of the political party in power influences the legislative steps for protecting trade unions.[77] Therefore, the extent of the Conservative government's 'authoritarian, class-biased and oppressive'[78] industrial action policies will be exemplified and 'more evident than they are today when a Labour government is elected again'.[79] Judiciary While the likes of Maurice Kay LJ and Lord Neuberger MR 'characterised the statutory immunities as limited exceptions to the common law' to justify interpreting the statute provisions 'strictly against the trade union', the court's overall response to industrial action 'has been more mixed'.[80] The court in Merkur Island Shipping v Laughton[81] developed a three-part test to examine the legality of industrial action. This test encapsulates the substantive and procedural requirements for a lawful strike whilst observing the intertwined and 'uneasy' relationship between the common law and statute.[82] If the industrial action is unlawful at common law, the judiciary asks whether there is a 'prime facie statutory immunity' for the commission of torts.[83] This substantive question considers whether the action was 'in contemplation or furtherance of a trade dispute'[84] before questioning whether the immunity had been procedurally lost by one of the three specified statutory reasons in TULRCA 1992.[85] The union's partial immunity could be lost for minor 'inconsequential breaches of the statutory rules'[86]; there is a series of High Court instances of injunctions being granted to 'ever more powerful and well-resourced employers'[87] owing to invalid strike ballots.[88] The readily available labour injunctions continued to be the "key piece[89]" of suppressing collective action until the minor development in 2011. In RMTv Serco Ltd;ASLEFv London and Birmingham Railway Limited (RMT and ASLEF),[90] the Court of Appeal approved and applied Millett LJ's 1996 observation in London Underground Limited v National Union of Railwaymen, Maritime and Transport Staff:[91] 'the democratic requirement of a secret ballot is not to make life more difficult for trade unions … but for the protection of the Union's own members'.[92] Owing to this proposed democratic aim, the court in RMT and ASLEF confirmed it was 'to interpret the statutory provisions somewhat less stringently'.[93] This interpretation is a stark contrast to Maurice Kay LJ's understanding of parliament's intentions. The court furthered Millett LJ's aim by recommending a neutral, 'without presumptions one way or the other',[94] interpretation of TULRCA. Upon the fact TULRCA is premised on the existing common law framework, the court's 'judicial creativity' could have easily 'outflank[ed] the intentions of Parliament'.[95] Instead of a 'neutral' approach, the courts have the power to mitigate unions disproportionate vulnerability against injunctions, damages, and unfair dismissals by encouraging and favouring social legitimacy. Although, the RMT and ASLEF court 'only indicated a change in emphasis rather than substance'[96] (since unions are still burdened with the challenges of exercising a 'lawful' strike),[97] this judgment enhanced union's ability to resist injunction applications (as observed by Balfour BeattyEngineering Services Limitedv Unitethe Union).[98] The unbiased interpretation encouraged in RMT and ASLEF continues to be the leading approach to interpreting domestic statutes regarding industrial action. ECHR Judiciary Admittedly, the scope of Maurice Kay LJ's strict interpretation was narrowly limited by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR).[99] The ECtHR confirmed, in Enerji Yapi-Yol Sen v Turkey,[100] that Article 11 of the European Convention on Human Rights included protection of the right to strike. This Article, and Article 6 of the European Social Charter[101] bestow the right to strike for their member states members and due to the UK Human Rights Act 1998, 'British workers are understood to enjoy a right to strike'.[102] This, unlike the mere domestic statutory immunities, is the only instance of a 'legislated' right to strike in the UK.[103] Under section 3(1) of the Human Rights Act 1998, 'statutory provisions must be read and given effect in a way which is compatible with the Conventionrights'[104] – 'the opportunity to test this line of argument'[105] in the English courts arose in Metrobus Ltd v Unite the Union (Metrobus).[106] The Court of Appeal rejected the Enerji arguments; the Court denied the authority's relevance for the interpretation of UK statutory provisions. This judgment continues to be the leading precedent on the UK's provisions of Article 11,[107] despite the RMT and ASLEF judgment. In RMT and ASLEF, the UK courts acknowledged the 'clearly protected'[108] right to strike under ECHR Article 11. However, the court emphasised the importance of a 'fair balance to be struck between the competing interests of the individual and the community as a whole'.[109] The emphasised interests of the 'community' motivated the court's justification for the ban on secondary action owing to its 'potential to … cause broad disruption within the economy and to affect the delivery of services to the public'.[110] Subsequently, the court confirmed that this ban aligns with Article 11(2) 'on the basis of a wide margin of appreciation accorded to the State'.[111] While the court is correct to recognise their bestowed margin of appreciation, the court rationalised the granting of the injunction, 'which itself cost the union a substantial sum',[112] upon economic factors. This factor is not only 'wholly irrelevant to the specific facts of the application' but it disregarded and postponed 'the exercise of what was acknowledged to be a convention protected right'.[113] The court effectively and 'successfully prevented industrial action on the basis of legal' human rights provisions 'which are intended to benefit workers'.[114] In short, there 'is no point creating rights' or passing human rights legislation if the 'court is not prepared to defend them'.[115] There will continue to be an erosion of human rights protection until there is greater coordination between the domestic courts and the ECtHR. It is credible to conclude that the UK judiciary is more concerned with profitability, self-preservation of UK powers, and 'in appeasing political forces'[116] above the interests of the individuals it and the Convention Rights was established to serve. Legislature The RMT and ASLEF court's 'blessing of a wide margin of appreciation' in the 'encompassment' of Article 11 offered a 'green light for further restrictive legislation on industrial action' by the 'only too happy Government'.[117] Here, Boggs and Ewing detect 'the crude politics of power'.[118] Upon observing the Court of Appeal's reluctance to exercise EU conventions, and the UK courts' developments that continue to be 'very much in line with the political approach of the Conservative government',[119] it materialises that the court and government are not 'looking to open a third (ECtHR) front'.[120] The Government has recently launched an 'independent review' of the Human Rights Act.[121] The review aims to evaluate 'the duty to take into account' ECtHR case law and assess 'whether dialogue between our domestic courts and the ECtHR works effectively and if there is room for improvement'.[122] It is worth highlighting that this 'independent' review will be led by former Court of Appeal Judge, Sir Peter Gross – the same judge who remarked that 'the more that controversial areas are "outsourced" … the greater the challenge for … judicial leadership'.[123] The former judge is a notable advocate for greater domestic judicial leadership.[124] This advocacy hints the likelihood of the review condemning the relevance and precedence of the ECtHR (and Human Rights Act 1998) in 'controversial' matters such as industrial action. This review has the powerful ability to eliminate the only instance of a legislated right to strike in the UK.[125] Ultimately 'The notion of lawful industrial action is restrictive', the procedural requirements are 'onerous' and the consequences of unions liability for unlawful strikes are 'serious'.[126] Nearly two decades after the European Social Charter's review,[127] the UK still does not guarantee the right to strike. The precedent in Metrobus still stands. There continues to be a 'poorly reasoned and barely consistent' series of judgments 'by what looks like a weak, timid'[128] and politically influenced[129] judiciary. The enactment of the 'Human Rights Act and the evolving jurisprudence of the ECtHR'[130] will not prescribe a right to strike in the UK until the Supreme Court or ECtHR rule UK's current provisions as incompatible with Article 11. In truth, 'the right to strike [in the UK] has never been much more than a slogan or a legal metaphor'.[131] This 'slogan' is a regime of immunities that are purposely designed upon an overly complex and expensive statutory system.[132] These immunities are not adequately or proportionately protecting workers, unions, and one in nine vulnerable, precarious workers against the 'pitfalls'[133] of damages, injunctions, and unfair dismissals.[134] This system was successfully underlined with the political agenda of deterring trade disputes; the UK's worker strike total has fallen to its 'lowest level since 1893'.[135] The 'unanimous and hostile'[136] approach of the legislature and the judiciary towards industrial action exhibits the UK's covert 'culture of routinely disregarding'[137] social legitimacy in favour of profits. [1] Alan Bogg and Ruth Dukes, 'Statutory Interpretation and The Limits of a Human Rights Approach: Royal Mail Group Ltd v Communication Workers Union' (2020) 49 ILJ 477, 478. [2] Nicholas Pohl,'Political and Economic Factors Influencing Strike Activity During the Recent Economic Crisis: A Study of The Spanish Case Between 2002 And 2013' (2018) 9 Global Labour Journal 19, 21. [3] ibid, 21. [4] Harry Smith, 'How Far Does UK Labour Law Provide for The Effective Exercise of a Right to Strike?' (2014) 6 The Student Journal of Law accessed 15 December 2020. [5] Hugh Collins, Aileen McColgan and Keith D Ewing,Labour Law(2nd edn, CUP 2019) 706. [6] Gwyneth Pitt,Cases and Materials on Employment Law(1st edn, Pearson Education Limited 2008) 570. [7] Pohl (n 2), 21. [8] Beverly J Silver,Forces of Labor Workers' Movements and Globalization Since 1870(CUP 2003) 17. [9] Pitt (n 6), 570. [10] Manfred Davidmann, 'The Right to Strike' (Solhaam, 1996) accessed 15 December 2020. [11] Adam Smith,An Inquiry into The Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations(Cofide 1776). [12] Bethan Staton, 'The Upstart Unions Taking on The Gig Economy and Outsourcing' (Financial Times, 20 January 2020) accessed 16 December 2020 [13] Employment Rights Act 1996,s212. [14] Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act (TULRCA)1992, s246. [15] Brian Smart, 'The Right to Strike and The Right to Work' (1985) 2 Journal of Applied Philosophy 31. [16] 'Industrial Action' (UNISON National) accessed 7 December 2020 [17] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [18] ibid, 478. [19] Article 18 of the Spanish Constitution and regulated by Royal Decree-Law 17/1977 of 4 March on Labour Relations ('RDLLR') and Article 4.1.e) of the Spanish Workers' Statute. [20] Article 40 of theItalianRepublic Constitution of 1948. [21] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 714. [22] RMT v Serco; ASLEF v London and Birmingham Railway [2011] EWCA Civ 226, [2011] ICR 848 [2]. [23] Metrobus Ltd v Unite the Union [2009] EWCA Civ 829, [2010] ICR 173 [118]. [24] South Wales Miners' Federation v Glamorgan Coal Co [1905] AC 239. [25] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 714. [26] (1853) 118 ER 749. [27] Taff Vale Railway Co vAmalgamated Society ofRailwayServants [1901] AC 426. [28] [1901] AC 495. [29] [2007] UKHL 21, [2008] 1 AC 1. [30] 'House of Lords Overhaul Economic Torts' (Herbert Smith Freehills, 17 May 2007) accessed 9 December 2020 [31] ibid. [32] OBG v Allan (n 29). [33] ibid, [37]. [34] Hazel Carty, 'The Economic Torts and English Law: An Uncertain Future' (2007) 95 Kentucky LJ 849. [35] Lonrho v Fayed [1990] 2 QB 479, 492-93. [36] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 714. [37] ibid, 714. [38] ibid, 849. [39] ibid, 848. [40] ibid, 847. [41] ibid, 847. [42] Cartey (n 34), 847. [43] ibid, 849. [44] Richard Kidner, 'Lessons in Trade Union Law Reform: The Origins and Passage of The Trade Disputes Act 1906' (2018) 2 Legal Studies 37. [45] Taff Vale (n 27). [46] Merriam-Webster,Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Encyclopedia(Merriam-Webster 2000) 1157. [47] Kidner (n 44), 47. [48] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [49] RMT and ASLEF (n 22) [2]. [50] Keith Ewing, 'The Right to Strike: From the Trade Disputes Act 1906 To A Trade Union Freedom Bill 2006' (Institute of Employment Rights, March 2013) accessed 11 December 2020. [51] The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica, 'Trade Disputes Act' (Encyclopedia Britannica, 20 July 1998) accessed 11 December 2020. [52] Ewing (n 50). [53] Encyclopedia Britannica (n 51). [54] FA Hayek, 'Trade Union Immunity Under the Law' The Times (London, 21 July 1977) 15 accessed 11 December 2020 [55] Davidmann (n 10). [56] Hayek (n 54). [57] Alex Kitson, '1978-1979: Winter of Discontent' (Libcom.org, 24 January 2007) accessed 11 December 2020. [58] Cmd, 8128, 1981. [59] Cmd 821, 1989. [60] Trade Union Immunities (n 58), para 247. [61] Trade Union Reform and Employment Rights Act 1993, s238A. [62] TULRCA 1992, ss237-38. [63] Michael Ford and Tonia Novitz, 'Legislating for Control: The Trade Union Act 2016' (2020) 45 ILJ 227. [64] Bart Cammaerts, 'The Efforts to Restrict the Freedom to Strike and To Deny A Right to Strike Should Be Resisted Fiercely' (LSE Blogs, 14 September 2015) accessed 11 December 2020. [65] TUA 2016, s226(2)(a) (ii). [66] ibid, s226(2)(e). [67] ibid, s238A. [68] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 291. [69] ibid, 291. [70] ibid, 291. [71] ibid, 291. [72] ibid, 279. [73] Modernising Industrial Relations n.7. [74] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 279. [75] Ewing (n 50). [76] Brian Towers, 'Running the Gauntlet: British Trade Unions Under Thatcher, 1979-1988' (1989) 42 ILR Rev 163. [77] Gareth Thomas and Ian K Smith,Smith & Thomas' Employment Law(9th edn, OUP 2007), 737. [78] Davidmann (n 10). [79] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 492. [80] Ruth Dukes, 'The Right to Strike Under UK Law: Not Much More Than A Slogan? NURMT v SERCO, ASLEF v London & Birmingham Railway Ltd' (2011) 40 ILJ 302, 309. [81] [1983] ICR 490. [82] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 847. [83] TULRCA 1992, s219. [84] ibid. [85] ibid, ss222, 224, and 226. [86] Dukes (n 80), 309. [87] Kalina Arabadjieva, 'Royal Mail Group Ltd v Communication Workers Union (CWU): Injunctions Preventing Industrial Action and The Right to Strike' (UK Labour Law, 6 March 2020) accessed 12 December 2020. [88] TULRCA 1992, s226. [89] Arabadjieva (n 87). [90] n 22. [91] [1996] ICR 170. [92] ibid, [180]-[182]. [93] Dukes (n 82), 309. [94] RMT and ASLEF (n 22), [2]. [95] Smith (n 4). [96] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 281. [97] Arabadjieva (n 87). [98] [2012] EWHC 267 (QB). [99] Keith Ewing and Alan Bogg, 'The Implications of The RMT Case' (2014) 40 ILJ 221, 222. [100] [2009] ECHR 2251. [101] 'The right to bargain collectively.' [102] Keith Ewing and John Hendy, 'The Dramatic Implications of Demir and Baykara' (2010) 39 ILJ 2. [103] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [104] ibid. [105] Dukes (n 82), 303. [106] n 23. [107] Dukes (n 82), 310. [108] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 221. [109] RMT and ASLEF (n 22), [77]. [110] ibid, [82]. [111] ECHR Art 11 (2). [112] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 251. [113] ibid, 221. [114] Arabadjieva (n 87). [115] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 223. [116] ibid, 251. [117] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 282. [118] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 223. [119] Thomas and Smith (n 77), 737. [120] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 223. [121] Ministry of Justice, 'Government Launches Independent Review of the Human Rights Act' (Gov.uk, 7 December 2020) accessed 15 December 2020. [122] ibid. [123] Jamie Susskind, 'Jamie Susskind Comments on Sir Peter Gross' Lecture on Judicial Leadership' (Littleton Chambers) accessed 15 December 2020. [124] ibid. [125] ECHR Art 11. [126] Ruth Dukes, The Right to Strike Under UK Law: Something More Than A Slogan? Metrobus v Unite The Union [2009] EWCA Civ 829' (2010) 39 ILJ 1, 7. [127] ESC, Report of the Committee of Experts 2002. [128] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 251. [129] Thomas and Smith (n 77), 737. [130] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [131] Metrobus (n 23) (Maurice Kay LJ). [132] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [133] Dukes (n 125), 9. [134] ibid, 7. [135] Richard Partington, 'UK Worker Strike Total Falls to Lowest Level Since 1893' (The Guardian, 30 May 2018) accessed 15 December 2020 [136] Smith (n 4). [137] ibid.
FEBRUARY, J900 ■ Gettysbur Mercury CONTENTS. Puzzles and their Value in Men-tal Training, 261 How Obtain Equilibrium be-tween Production and Con-sumption, 265 Scene in the Forest, Orlando Soliloquizing, 271 Education more than a Means of Gaining a Livelihood, 272 A Comparative Study in Ruskin, 274 Editorials 278 Economic Results of Gambling, 279 Results of the Art of Healing,. 282 Public Control of Industries 285 The Power of Ignorance; 292 KAVOR THOSE WHO FAVOR US. For Fine. Printing go to p o ,,0 CARLISLE ST. GETTYSBURG, PA. C. B. Kitzmiller Dealer in Hats, Caps, Boots and . Douglas Shoes GETTYSBURG, PA. J. H. Myers Fashionable Tailor, Clothier and Gents' Furnisher. The best place in town to taaveyourCloth-ing made to order. All workmanship and Trimmings guaranteed. No charge for re-pairs and pressing for one year. Dyeing and Repairing a specialty. Ready-made Clothing the largest stock in town. Up-to-date styles. 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HINDS & HOBLE, Publishers 4-5-13-14 Cooper Institute H. Y. City Schoolbnohs of all publishers atone store. R. A. WONDERS, Corner Cigar Parlors. A full line of Cigars, Tobacco, Pipes, Etc. Scott's Corner, Opp. Eagle Hotel. GETTYSBURG, PA. JOHN M. MINNIGH, Confectionery, Ice, andIee Cpeankjj-* Oysters Stewed and Fried. No. 17 BALTIMORE ST. I .THE. GETTYSBURG MERCURY. Entered at the Postoffice at Gettysburg as second-class matter. VOL. VIII. GETTYSBURG, PA., FEBRUARY, 1900. No. 8 Editor-in-Chief. J. FRANK HEILMAN, '00. Assistant Editors. LUTHER A. WEIGLE, '00. S. A. VAN ORMER, '01. Alumni Editor. REV. F. D. GARLAND. Business Manager. JOHN K. HAMACHER. '00. Assistant Business Manager. CLARENCE MOORE, '02. Advisory Board. PROF. J. A. HIMES, LIT. D. PROF. G. D. STAHLEY, M. D. PROF. J. W. RICHARD, D. D. Published monthly by the students of Pennsylvania (Gettysburg) College. Subscription price One Dollar a year in advance, single copies Fifteen Cents. Students, Professors and Alumni are cordially invited to contribute. All subscriptions and business matter should be addressed to the Business Manager. Articles for publication should be addressed to the Editor. Address THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY, GETTYSBURG, PA. PUZZLES AND THEIR VALUE IN MENTAL TRAINING. [GIES PRIZE ESSAY, FIRST PRIZE.] OF all the powers of the human soul, the imagination is one of the most universal in its application and pleasing in its products, the earliest activity of the infant mind, and the last to cling to old age. Without the exercise of this faculty, the world would be a barren waste of material facts, in which would dwell the human race, passive recipients of objective im-pressions, without the power to revel in the beauties of imaged thought and conception of the Divine. Poetry, philosophy, art, science, invention, religion—all would be lost to mankind. L,ittle wonder, then, that the products of the imagination have ever been present and cultivated among men. The word "puzzle" has been variously defined, and the objects of thought and action to which it may be applied are widely different. But a common ground may be assumed—a puzzle is an invented contrivance, either intellectual or material, mtmllM - 262 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. whose solution requires time and ingenuity. It will be seen that the puzzle is pre-eminently the product ot the inventive imagina-tion and in turn its highest application is in the exercise of that power for its solution. Intellectual puzzles are in many senses the most important and also most ancient, being generally cast in the form of riddles. From the earliest times of history we can find evidence of the existence of puzzles, either as a form of intellectual amusement or didactic discipline. Among the Eastern nations obscure forms of expression were the inevitable associates of their symbolical modes of thought. It is certain that such methods of statement were in use among the Egyptians, while several books of riddles exist in old Arabic and Persian. One of the most well-known of puzzles is the riddle which Samson propounded to the Philistines, and many other examples are found in the Bible. The proverbs of Solomon are at times excellent types of the didactic form of the riddle. The parables of the Savior were skillful methods of teaching important truths veiled under an interesting narrative which drew the attention of the crowd, and would be very accept-able to an Eastern mind. In Greece the riddle was a favorite mode of intellectual enter-tainment at symposia. To the active mind of the Greek nothing was more pleasing than a well-directed turn of expression which would give room for play of the imagination. There is abundant evidence of this among their writers. Some of their poets even did not hesitate to write whole books of riddles, and Kleobulus, one of the seven wise men, was especially noted for his composi-tions along this line. The famous riddle of the Sphinx as told in the Oedipus Tyrannus, is probably the best known puzzle of Greek literature, though the most interesting form was a part of their very religious life and character—the oracles of the inspired priests, on which hung sometimes the fate of nations, even of the world. The raveling of such obscurities of expression was a source of the keenest pleasure to the Greek mind, and, while a product of the imagination, was an efficient agent in bringing it to that perfection shown in attic literature, thought and philosophy. The Roman mind, more earnest and grave, found small pleas-ure in these modes of intellectual activity, and very little is known of their use of puzzles until the later republic and empire, when they were introduced with the passion for everything Greek, and ■■■■HH THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 263 professional riddle-makers soon began to take a prominent part in their entertainments and banquets. During the middle ages puzzles were cultivated more as a pleasant means of entertainment than for any other purpose, and until recently the same idea has clung to them. Many manu-script and printed editions of collections of puzzles, riddles and conundrums are in existence. Much of their content consists of coarse jests, but there are some real gems of wit and valuable aids to a true estimate of mediaeval life. The Reformation put a stop to this merry jesting for a time, but it soon crept into favor again, and during the eighteenth century the most brilliant minds of Europe were engaged in the intellectual pastime. At the present day puzzles are still in great favor with both young and old, and their educational worth is becoming more and more realized. As a mental training the value of the puzzle lies chiefly in its power of cultivating quickness and strength of the constructive imagination. An obscurity of expression or mechanical con-struction may require time to solve its intricacies, but the mind is certainly the better for having mastered it. All the faculties of memory and imagination are brought into play, and side by side comes development of the reasoning power as we attempt to deduce from our problem its elements, or to arrive by induction at the result of certain assumed forces. These are the things which made the riddle so attractive to the Greek, with his quick imagination and active reasoning power. When we solve a dif-ficult puzzle, we in fact repeat the very processes by which as children we began to learn, for then everything was a puzzle; and in doing so we strengthen the faculties of the mind which are most essential, and besides strength impart to them a facility and quickness of action, which is in itself most valuable. The subject-matter of the puzzle may be another source of con-siderable benefit. The didactic riddles of the East have already been mentioned as examples of what may be taught in this way. A truth given an obscure expression which requires mental effort to unravel will be impressed upon the mind when it has been gained. A mechanical construction whose every portion has been carefully studied with a view to its possible part in the function of the whole, will not soon be forgotten. In this fact alone may be grounded a strong argument in favor of the puzzle's part in mental training. 264 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. Puzzles are beginning to play a more and more important part in the education of the child. Almost the first book placed in its hands, "Mother Goose," is full of simple riddles. Froebel's kindergarten method, so generally acknowledged now-a-days, em-bodies the puzzle idea to a great extent, developing as it does the powers of observation, invention and reasoning. As the child passes into school, puzzles of graded difficulty are used for several years, and his toys always include a number of puzzles and games, many of which contain subject-matter of educational value. Many firms now publish educational games, whose benefit to the child will be revealed by even a superficial examination. The use of puzzles may be carried too far, however; for they may be made an end in themselves. Men may become so infatu-ated with the delicacy of reasoning and exhilaration of discovery as to lose sight entirely of the practical use of the mind. So did the School-men of the middle ages, who waged long controversies on trivial and absurd questions merely for sake of the argument. Neither should puzzles take the place of more legitimate means of education, for it must be kept in mind that they are for the more developed merely an intellectual pastime which will benefit instead of harm ; and for the child a means of starting its mind upon the path which it must shortly travel with the more able guides of language, art and science. Puzzles seem to be trivial things, and are so in a certain sense. But they present wonderful capabilities to the student of Psy-chology and the teacher of the child's mind. Used within proper bounds, as a means and not an end, they may become, in devel-opment of strength and facility of the imagination and the reas-oning power, and in didactic force, a powerful factor in mental training. —L. A. W., '00. Hold fast to the Bible as the sheet anchor of your liberties; write its precepts in your hearts, and practice them in your lives. —U. S. Grant. A broken reputashun is like a broken vase—it may be mend-ed, but alwuss shows whare the brak waz.—Josh Billings. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 265 MOW OBTAIN EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION. AS a matter of course, the first thing to consider in searching for a remedy for any evil, whether in economics or else-where, is to seek to find the causes of that evil, and to discover a means of removing these causes. Whether the means proposed be beneficial in other respects or advisable upon other grounds we do not need to inquire in this paper. All that is necessary is to find some measure which gives fair promise of bettering matters in this one department of economic life which we have under consideration, namely, of establishing a more stable and more nearly correct relation between the producer and consumer. Briefly and roughly stated, it seems to us that the whole difficulty arises from the fact that the producer is not able to foretell how much of a demand there will be for his goods and incidental to this, how many of those who create the demand will be able to pay within a reasonable time, provided he is willing to sell on credit. As to the second point, demand un-doubtedly is defined to be how much certain persons are ready to take at a certain price. But we must remember that an enormous part of economic operations are conducted on a credit basis and we cannot overlook this as it exercises such a potent influence in increasing or lowering the demand or supply at any time. For if a man believes the credit of his purchasers is good, he will be willing to sell a greater quantity of goods on credit and at a lower price than if he is doubtful as to their credit, and so we might illustrate further. This second point then is incidental to the first, but it is so important in the view we take of the matter that we mention it at once in connection with what we regard the leading difficulty, namely, the producer's ignorance of the con-sumer's future demand for his goods. For he must anticipate the future. It is possible in so few industries to carry on production by filling orders already filed, that we may almost neglect them. And where there are such, the difficulties which we find elsewhere between producer and consumer do not exist, since they work on a solid basis with regard to the future, and are not compelled to base their output upon a supposed state of the market. In other words, they know 266 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. what the market will be and this is the element which is ordinar-ily lacking and which is the cause, as we believe, of the mis-understandings. Now it becomes important to try to answer the question "Why are these producers in ignorance of the future demand for their goods ?" Necessarily an important factor, in all economic life, is the large mass of natural products which are so dependent on the forces of nature, and as it is impossible to control the workings of these to any appreciable extent, the period between the planting for the future and the realization of it, between "seedtime and harvest," must always be one of doubt. It is apparently impossible to control the amount of production in this sphere, and, so far as this operates as an agent in causing misunderstandings between the producer and consumer, we do not attempt to suggest a remedy. As long as it is impossible for a man to know that he can meet a certain demand, even though he is sure that demand will exist, and that impossibility depends on the fact that the agents which cause the uncertainty are beyond human control, the cure seems also to be without the bounds of human power. From this class of cases where there is an impossibility for the producer to tell what supply he can put upon the market, we pass, by almost imperceptible gradations, to cases where the producer needs only know the demand and he can meet it with an ample supply. No doubt there are natural products which lie on the line between these extremes, as, for example, the output of mines which can be regulated to a fair extent, and there are products, not strictly natural, which are very uncertain as to the possible supply, but as a rule the further removed the product is from the soil, the more completely is the extent of its production within the control of man. It is to this class of products that we wish to direct particular attention. Assuming then that the demand could be met if it could be known, we come again to the question "Why cannot the demand be known ?" The producer can find from his table ofstatistics how many producers there are in the same business with him, how large an amount of their products has been sold during the year previous to that one, and the year previous and soon back, and then, by dividing his capital into the total capital invested in the business, he can find how much of that output should belong --. Sira :-:.'; . THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 267 to him. A simple problem, no doubt, but with no correctness in its application, and why not ? Simply because no one of his fellow producers, nor himself either, will be satisfied with the amount as he would thus work it out, but partly through natural aggressive-ness, partly though a desire to protect himself against aggressive-ness on the part of his competitors, he will seek to produce and to sell a little more than his share. He will devise new means by which he can bring his goods a little more in favor with the pub-lic than his rivals. He will reduce his prices, allowing himself a narrower margin of profits, hoping to make himself even by larger sales. No doubt in this way he will sell more goods than his slower going neighbor and will get some of the trade which would otherwise have gone to him. His neighbor's trade falls off and he finds that he provided for more trade than he is getting and is burdened with an unsalable stock. This is so much idle capi-tal and makes him so much less able to carry on a successful business. This single illustration, on a small scale, though it is, shows the inherent tendency of competition to make uncertain what share of a given demand will fall to a producer's lot. The same amount of goods may be sold, as he had anticipated, but he has not sold his share, for some one has succeeded in selling it ahead of him. We believe, therefore, that competition is the main reason. why the producer cannot foretell what the demand for his goods will be, and as it is this inability to foretell which leads to the mis-understandings between producer and consumer, the natural conclusion is that we should remove competition. We wish to make mention again that we do not argue that this is necessarily a beneficial or advisable means generally. ■ All we are concerned with is the question whether it will tend to remove the misunderstandings we have been speaking of. Of course it is not far to seek a means of accomplishing this. The means have been thrust upon us rather generously during the past few years. The tendency toward industrial combination, seeming to be the logical outgrowth of competition, appears, like Zeus, to threaten the reign of its progenitor. No doubt, it ap-pears startling to those economists who have been accustomed to regard competition with a kind of solemn awe, as containing a remedy for "all the heartaches and the thousand natural shocks 268 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. that flesh is heir to ;" but perhaps its partial disappearance may be attended by some results not altogether detrimental. The trust can estimate the demand which it will be called upon to meet. The total demand for a given article during any given period, does not vary through so large a range as to render this estimate one of great uncertainty. No doubt seasons of unusual depression or excitement may render calculations imperfect, but, all in all, the total output which the consumer stands ready to dispose of, is a matter of far higher certainty than the numerous possibilities existing when the producers are multiplied. By the immense amount of capital invested, the trust is better able to adapt itself to an unusual season of excitement or depres-sion. For example, the American Sugar Refining Company a few years ago built a new refinery furnished with the newest techni-cal improvements, to serve only as a safeguard in the case of a suddenly increased demand, or of stoppage in other factories. President Hadley in an article on Trusts, says, " A consoli-dated company has advantages in its power of adapting the amount of production to the needs of consumption. Where several con-cerns with large plants are competing and no one knows exactly what the others are doing, we are apt to have an alternation between years of over-production and years of scarcity, an alter-nation no less unfortunate for the public than for the parties im-mediatety concerned. A wisely managed combination can do much to avoid this. By making its production more even, it can give a constant supply of goods to the consumers and a constant opportunity of work to the laborers; and the resulting steadiness of prices is so great an advantage to all concerned that the public can well afford to pay a very considerable profit to those whose organizing power has rendered such useful service. Morever, the consolidation of all competing concerns avoids many unnecessary expenses of distribution. Under the old sys-tem, these expenses are very great. The multiplication of selling agencies involves much waste. Competitive advertisement is often an unnecessary and unprofitable use of money. Delivery of goods from independent producers, whether by wagon or by rail-road, often costs more than the better organized shipmeuts of a single large concern. All of these evils can be avoided by con-solidation." The same writer compares the trusts with an army, and the THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 269 comparison is apt for more purposes than one. The effectiveness with which a thoroughly organized and wealthy trust can meet an unexpected crisis, as compared with a large number of disorgan-ized and quarrelsome companies or individuals,is well paralleled by the difference between the manner in which a thoroughly equipped and organized army will overcome a sudden and severe attack, where a host of stragglers would have been cut to pieces. The very organization constitutes an element of tremendous strength. It must be concluded, we think, then, that trusts, would, or rather do furnish a means by which the future demand for the goods of the producer may be rendered more certain and hence they tend to remove the misunderstandings between the producer and the consumer. And now, how would such a remedy apply when we consider the matter of selling on credit. The man who sells, necessarily is not satisfied merely because he can tell how many goods his cus-tomer will buy. He wants to know how many he can and will pay for. Here in addition to the fact that their superior mastery of all the details of their business renders them more capable of judging of the credit of their purchasers, we seem to find another and very important fact. When competition exists, the producer is all the time seeking to hold out more inducement than his com-petitor. One of the common forms these inducements take is a sale on credit, and then competition arises as to extending the time of credit. Now, when the backbone of competition is broken, the trust no longer needs to use such means to secure purchasers. It stands in a position to dictate, to a great degree, its own terms, and can provide much more fully against dangerous credit than can be done where competition has full play. It is worth while, too, to mention the indirect effects flowing from those above mentioned. As the future is more closely anti-cipated, and as the sales made are more fully realized on than formerly, the financial embarrassments of various producers, under the old regime become a gradually disappearing quantity in the disturbing influences on trade. Of course the increased danger from the possibility of the trust must be omitted, but we believe it is overbalanced by the failures due to competition. When we entered upon the analysis of the causes which ren-dered demand uncertain, we supposed for the time being that the 'JO THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. demand, if known, could be met. We now return to that point to inquire briefly how the trust would effect that side of the ques-tion, though we have already incidentally touched upon it. Necessarily, one thing which renders uncertain the ability of the producer to meet a given demand is the possibility of dissatis-faction among his employees, leading to a strike. The same argument applies here as applies to selling on credit. The employee is, to a certain extent, able to make more at the kind of work he is engaged in than at any other, for the simple reason that he knows more about it. Now when there are a number of producers in the same business he knows, if he leaves one, he can probably find work with another, while, where there is but one employer, he loses this advantage. But writers on Trusts and Industrial Combinations in the United States agree that the information given by the working-men, themselves, seems to prove that generally a reduction of hours for labor, seldom a reduction of wages and occasionally, an increase, have taken place, especially where the workingmen were well organized themselves. "It is pretty clear that the laborers in centralized undertakings have not been worse off than in decentralized ones." So that it appears that there is less likeli-hood of a strike under such organization than under the decen-tralized form, so that less opposition to the free course of produc-tion would be met with here. And again the indirect results would be beneficial. For, as the demand becomes more certain, and there is less waste from imperfect attempts to meet it, more and more the production of the trust becomes near to a uniform standard and thus tends to give the workmen steady employment at regular wages, which is a strong barrier against a strike on their part. From the direct and indirect results, therefore, of the consoli-dated form of production, we are led to believe that it presents a means of establishing a far better understanding between the pro-ducer and consumer. That in some minor details the result might be otherwise we do not deny, but looking at it in its broad out-lines and confining our attention carefully to theparticularsubject we have under discussion, we conclude that trusts furnish a method for removing much of the friction between the producer and the consumer. 'oo. ItttfSM&B&iSaSB THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 271 SCENE IN THE FOREST, ORLANDO SOLILOQUIZING. IS it so that in this guise she sought me? My heart is sick within me. I'll take me back to a wilder region in the forest and there the remainder of my days I'll spend in mourn-ing for my lost love. Aye, virtue is modesty and modesty is a virtue and in that is she lacking. Seek her ? Speak with her ? But strike me dead if I may speak one word with her, I'll write it, fold it, give it to her and fly. 'Twill be a testimony of my love that was, that is no more. She merits now nothing but my scorn. If I had wit, I'd make her blush for very shame, if shame there be in her. But my last breath is drawn. Oh how I loved her to distraction ! I ought to go, but how to move? What is this feeling within me that holds me back ? Is it because the road is long and I am tired. No, 'tis an accursed lingering of that love that once so filled me that I knew naught else. Will it never be in my power to shake it off? 'Twassent from Heaven and not from earth; 'twas given by God and not by man. And yet I'll rid me of it. Can one so unworthy hold my affections thus ? I have a dim vague unrest, can it be removed ? I hear a rustle in the autumn leaves. Ay, here she comes, do I love her yet ? I know not how strong my passion is. I faint from fear. I see her so plain, yet must seem to see her not. She speaks— Enter Ros. and Alia. Ros. (Dressed as a woman.) I am much distressed and faint for succor, must I fall with my true love standing near me and aiding me not ? Alia. Perhaps he sees us not. Shall I go touch him on the arm ? Ros. Yes, ask him if he loves me still. Tell him if when I need it his love fails me it is not love. ' Alia. (Goes up and touches him.) Rosalind has come to seek her lover. Do you not. see her ? She is in need of your aid ? What ails you ? Your eyes look wild and you seem to know me not. Orl. If any of pity exists in your heart for me leave me alone. Alas, I know not what I say; I want you to leave me and yet I fain would have you stay. Ros. (Coming up.) Pray pardon me for calling you my lover, you received it with such melancholy dignity, methinks 272 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. you do not half appreciate the honor placed upon you. Can I relieve you of the burden of the title? But why do you look at me thus ? Have I done aught against you ? Orl. I show no bravery by standing before you thus. I would that I could die before your very eyes to let you know what havoc you have wrought. But I leave you now this very minute to go far into the forest, perchance to take of my abode with a shepherd and thus spend my remaining days. I leave yet I stay. I cannot stir an inch, (aside.) Sweet Rosalind, has turned my head, Howl love her! Despite her faults, despite her lack of modesty.' Why came you to me thus? Tell me wished you again with your wiles to torment my morbid feelings. Ah, Rosalind, I still shall call you mine. Ros. Orlando, why did you think so ill of me ? Could you not see in my glowing eyes the story of my love. I would rather have had you woo me but bashful man makes maidens bold and love will find a way. We were parted but I could not abide far from thee. Wherever fate led I followed swayed by love alone. And as the days grow brighter and our hearts grow lighter we shall sing for joy, yes, joy without alloy. EDUCATION MORE THAN A MEANS OP GAINING A LIVELIHOOD. THAT education is a means of gaining a livelihood is a fact that needs no proof. Almost every day we are brought into contact with those who are gaining a comfortable liveli-hood by means of their education. In our day there are many others who are striving to get possession of the same means for no other purpose than that of making a living. It is to be regretted, however, that too many look at education as if it were a mere instrument for easily securing the things which satisfy their physical wants. Through this motive men have lost sight of the real and lasting value of education. I would not say that it is wrong to consider education as a means of gaining a livelihood, but I think that it is a very grievous error to consider education as having no other use or value. Indeed, education without any other purpose than that of a means of gaining a livelihood would be of little value to beings created as we are. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 273 Herbert Spencer in his work on Education says, "In education the question of questions is how to decide among the conflicting claims of subjects and determine the relative values of knowledge. Every one in contending for the worth of any particular order of information, does so by showing its bearing upon some part of life. All effort, either directly or by implication, must appeal to the ultimate test of what use is it?" In other words, the writer affirms that the essential question for us to ponder is "How to live." Not how to live in the mere material sense only, but in the widest sense. The general problem which comprehends every special prob-lem is the right ruling of conduct in all directions, under all circumstances. In what way to treat the body; in what way to treat the mind; in what way to manage our affairs; in what way to bring up a family; in what way to behave as a citizen; in what way to utilize all those sources of happiness which nature supplies—how to use all our faculties to the greatest advantage of ourselves and others—how to live completely! And this being the great thing needful for us to learn, it is, by conse-quence the great aim of education. The leading kinds of activities which constitutes human life are: (1) Those activities which directly minister to self preserva-tion; (2) Those activities which, by securing the necessaries of life, indirectly administer to self preservation; (3) Those activities which are involved in the maintenance of proper social and political relations; (4) Those miscellaneous activities which make up the leisure part of life, devoted to the gratification of tastes and feelings. Is it not education which prepares the individual for direct and indirect self-preservation, for parent-hood, for citizenship, and for the miscellaneous refinements of life? Of course ideal education is complete preparation in all these divisions. Some one has said that education is to the soul what sculpture is to the marble. As the sculpture brings out of the marble the god-like form, the symmetrical proportion, the life-like attitude of the finished and polished statue, so education brings out of man as an animal man, a rational being, making him a complete creature after his kind. To his frame it gives vigor, activity and beauty; to his senses correctness and acuteness; to his intellect, power and truthfulness; to his heart, virtue. r
DIRECT FEEDBACK STRATEGY IN THE TEACHING OF WRITING Army Vista Casmi Septianik English Education Department, Language and Art Faculty, Surabaya State University. email: armyvistacs@yahoo.co.id Prof. Dr. Susanto, M.Pd. English Education Department, Language and Art Faculty, Surabaya State University. Abstrak Penelitianinibertujuanuntukmendiskripsikanpenerapanstrategi Direct Feedback oleh guru untukmengajarmenulispadasiswakelassepuluh di sekolahmenengahatas Surabaya.Dalam proses pengajaranmenulisini guru menggunakanempattahapdalampenerapanstrategi Direct Feedback. Merekaadalahtahapperencanaan, penyusunan, pengeditan, danhasilakhirterbaru.Padatahapperencanaan, guru memberikanpenjelasandanpengungkapanpendapattentangapa yang akan di lakukandalampelajaranmenuliskepadasiswa. Setelahitu guru memintakepadasiswauntukmerencanakandanmenuliskan ide secarabebas yang berkaitandengan topic teks recount dalampengajaranmenulis. Dalamtahap yang keduayaitupenyusunan, guru memintakepadasiswauntukmengembangkan ide merekakedalamsuatuparagraf.Kemudiansetelahsiswaselesaimengembangkan ide dalamparagraf, guru memintasiswauntukmengkoreksikembalitulisanmerekadengancaradikoreksiolehtemansebangku. Tahap yang ketigaadalahtahapdalampengeditan.Dalamtahapini guru memberikanpengkoreksiandarihasiltulisansiswasetelahmendapatkanpengkoreksianolehtemansebangkudenganmenggunakan Direct Feedback strategibaiksecaralisanatautulisan.Yang teakhiradalahtahaphasilakhirterbaru.Dalamtahapini guru memintasiswauntukmengumpulkanhasilakhirtulisanmerekasetelahmendapatkankoreksidaritemansebangkudan Direct Feedback dari guru dalampertemuanberikutnya. Penelitimenggunakandeskriptifkualitatifdalamdesainpenelitian, karenatujuandaripenelitianiniadalahuntukmenggambarkankegiatan guru selamapelaksanaan Direct Feefbackstrategidalampengajaranmenulis.Penelitihanyamemilihpadasalahsatu guru bahasainggris yang mengajar di sekolahmenengahatas di salahsatukota di Surabaya. Data dalampenelitianinidiperolehdarihasilobservasi yang menggambarkanpenerapan Direct Feedback strategidalambentukpengkoreksiantulisansiswa.Data di analisisuntukmenjawabsemuapertanyaanpenelitian.Penulismenulissemuainformasitentangsegalasesuatu yang terjadiselama proses kegiatanbelajarmengajardalambentukcatatan yang panjang. Hasildanpembahasanadalah, pertamaadalahtahappenerapan Direct Feedback strategihanyaterfokusdalam proses kegiatanbelajarmengajar. Dalamtahapinipenerapan Direct Feedback dibagimenjadiempattahapanyaitutahapperencanaan, penyusunan, pengeditan, danhasilakhirterbaru.Dalampemberian feedback guru menggunakanempatperandalam proses iniyaitu guru sebagaipembacaataupartisipasi, sebagai guru menulisataupenuntun, sebagaiahlitatabahasa, dansebagaipengkoreksi. Dalamtahap yang keduaadalahtahappenerapan Direct Feedback strategiuntukmengkoreksitulisansiswadalambentukkesalahantatabahasa.Dalamsesiini, guru masukdalamtahappengeditandanmelakukanperannyasebagaiahlitatabahasa.Yang ketigaadalahtahappenerapan Direct Feedback strategiuntukmengkoreksitulisansiswadalambentukperbendaharaan kata.Dalamsesiini, guru masukdalamtahappengeditandanmelakukanperannyasebagaipengkoreksi.Padatahapankeempatatauterakhiradalahtahappenerapan Direct Feedback strategiuntukmengkoreksitulisansiswadalambentukpenggunaanparagrafing, pengejaan kata dan capitalization.Dalamsesiini, guru masukdalamtahappengeditandanmelakukanperannyasebagaipengkoreksi. Dari hasil proses kegiatanbelajarmengajarmenulistersebut, penulisdapatmenarikkesimpulanbahwa Direct Feedback strategisesuaiuntuksiswadalamkegiatanbelajarmengajarmenuliskarenadenganstrategiitu guru dapatmembantukesulitansiswasepertimembantumengurangikesalahansiswadalamkegiatanmenulis. Saran bagi guru adalahuntuklebihsadardalampenggunaanwaktudanbagipeneliti lain dapatmelakukanpenelitianserupadalamaspek lain danbisamenggunakanpenambahanpemberian feedback dalamkategorikontendanorganisation. Kata Kunci: Direct Feedbcak, Strategi, KegiatanMenulis. Abstract This study aims to describe the application of the strategy of Direct Feedback by teachers to teach writing to the students in the tenth grade of high school in Surabaya. In the process of teaching writing the teacher uses four stages in the implementation of Direct Feedback strategy. They are planning, drafting , editing , and the latest final versions. In the planning stage, the teacher gives an explanation and brainstorming to the students regarding what they are going to do in writing lessons. After that, the teacher asked the students to plan and write their ideas freely that are related to the topic in teaching writing of recount text. In the second stage, is drafting activity. Here the teacher asked the students to develop their ideas into a paragraph. Then, after the students finished developing their idea into a paragraph, the teacher asked the students to re- writing their work by using peer correction. The third stage is editing. In this stage the teacher gave the students' correction of their work after getting friends correction inpeer correction with the Direct Feedbackstrategy either in orally or in writing. For the last stage is final version. In this stage, the teacher asked the students to submit their final product after getting corrections from their friends and Direct Feedback from the teacherin the next meeting. The researcher used a descriptive qualitative research design, because the purpose of this study is to describe the activities of the teacher during the implementation of the Direct Feefback strategies in teaching of writing. The researcher chooses the one of English teacher who teachesin high school in one of the cities in Surabaya. The data in this study weretaken from the observation that illustrates the application of direct feedback correction strategy in the form of student writing. The data were analyzed descriptively to answer the research questions. The writerwrote all the information about everything that happened during the teaching and learning process in the form of long notes. The results and discussion are, in the first stage of the implementation ofDirect Feedback strategy is only focused in the process of teaching and learning activities. In the implementation of Direct feedback is divided into four stages, they are planning, drafting, editing, and the last final version. In providing feedback the teacher use four roles in this process, they are the teacher as reader or participation, as teacher writing or guide, as a grammarian, and as a evaluator. In the second stage is the implementation stage of the Direct Feedback strategies for correcting students' writing in the form of grammatical errors. In this term the teacher in editing stage and she act her role as grammarian. The third is the implementation stage of the Direct Feedback strategies for correcting students' writing in the form of vocabulary. In this stage the teacher in editing stage and she act her role as evaluator. In the fourth and final stage is the implementation stage of the Direct Feedback strategies for correcting students' writing in the form paragrafing usage , spelling words and capitalization. In this stage the teacher in editing stage and she act her role as evaluator. From those results of the process of teaching-learning in writing, the writercan draw the conclusion that Direct Feedback strategy is appropriate for the of students in learning activities because the teacher can help the student's difficulties such as helping to decrease the students'mistakes in their essays. Suggestions are to the teacher and other researchers. For the teacher has aware to time and for other researchers who will conduct this similar studies but in other aspects they can use the additional corrections of feedback on the content and organization categories. Keywords: Direct Feedback, Strategy, Writing Activities. Introduction In Merrill's Component Display Theory verifies feedback as the most important part in Secondary Presentation feedback may takes place during practice and/or elaboration stages. (Merrill 2002) states that feedback has also been long acknowledged as the most essential form of learner guidance. To confirm further of the important position of feedback, Andrews and Goodson (1980) state that feedback is included in one of the purposes of systematic instructional design that is to improve evaluation process "by means of the designated components and sequence of events, including feedback and revision events, inherent in models of systematic instructional design". In this case, feedback as strategy applied by the teacher is the important position to improve the students evaluation or when teaching learning process during practice and revisions in class. Feedback is also an important component of the formative assessment process. Here, formative assessment gives information to teachers and students about how students' writing relate to classroom learning goals. One of the strategies use by the teacher in giving formative assessment is by using direct feedback. Direct feedback is a strategy which provides feedback to students to help them correct their errors by providing the correct linguistic form or linguistic structure of the target language (Ferris, 2006). This technique requires the teacher to give direct comment or answer to the student when noticing a grammatical mistake made by crossing out an incorrect or unnecessary word, phrase, or morpheme; inserting a missing or expected word, phrase, or morpheme; and by providing the correct linguistic form above or near the erroneous (Ellis, 2008 ; Ferris, 2006). Bitchener et al., (2005) and Ferris (2003) add that Direct feedback is usually given by teachers, upon noticing a grammatical mistake, by providing the correct answer or the expected response above or the linguistic or grammatical error. From those statements, direct feedback can be used by the teacher to help the students' difficulties such as using appropriate, accurate and complete responses, correct spelling and punctuation, ensuring minimum word limit, grammatical accuracy, range of sentence structure, and range of vocabulary in writing activity. Direct feedback as a strategy is appropriate for students in beginner level or in situation when the students get errors in their works that are not easy to do self-correction such as sentence structure and word choice, or it can be useful when the teachers want to direct the student attention to their error patterns that require the student correction. The effectiveness of direct correction has been proven on several previous studies. Chandler (2003) reported the results of her study involving 31 ESL students on the effects of direct and indirect feedback strategies on students' revisions. She found that direct feedback was the best way for producing accurate revisions and preferred by the students as it was the fastest and the easiest way for them to make revisions. Others, the most recent study on the effects of direct corrective feedback involving 52 ESL students in New Zealand was conducted by Bitchener and Knoch (2010) where they compared three different types of direct feedback (direct corrective feedback, written, and oral metalinguistic explanation; direct corrective feedback and written metalinguistic explanation; direct corrective feedback only) with a control group. They found that each treatment group outperformed the control group and there was no significant difference in effectiveness among the variations of direct feedback in the treatment groups. From the above statements, it can be concluded that direct feedback is effective to be used in teaching writing. Although direct feedback is effective to be used, there is a difficulty when the teacher uses it in large class environment. The teacher needs much time to give feedback to the students. Clements et al. (2010) state that direct methods in providing feedback do not tend to have results which are commensurate with the effort needed from the teachers to draw the students' attention to surface errors. From the information above it can happen because the teacher doesn't give students an opportunity to think or to do anything. Therefore to overcome the above problem, the teacher needs to understand the writing steps to avoid time-consuming. Writing should be taught in a specific time in order to enable the students to write an acceptable English composition. Then, in teaching writing, the teacher can focus either on the product of writing or on the writing process itself (Harmer, 2001:257). It means that, the teacher can manage the students written by using three steps before teaching writing because by doing that the teacher can more focus on the product or the process of writing itself. Here there are three steps in writing, they are: In the pre-writing, whilst-writing, and post-writing. In the pre-writing, the teacher asks the students to: select the topic, provide specific amount of time needed to complete their writing task, brainstorm their ideas, and organize their outline. In the whilst-writing, the teacher asks the students to make draft and ask them to submit their work when they finish. In post-writing, the teacher gives the students revision regarding their work. By understanding the preceding steps, the teacher can manage the time during teaching learning activity. In one of the school in Surabaya, there is a teacher who use direct feedback strategy to teach writing. In her result, she finds advantages by using direct feedback as a strategy to teach writing, such as the students get creative, enjoy, and enthusiastic. By this method, the students become creative it is showed when the teacher revises the student's work. The teacher finds that the students frequent to use new words. Moreover, the students feel enjoy when the teacher revise their work without looked nervous. The last, the students are eager to ask and re-write their revision. Although there are several advantages, the teacher does not give further explanation how to use the technique in teaching learning activity. Brookhart (2008) states that giving feedback is crucial aspect in the writing process because it plays a central role in learning this skill. Thus, from the information above, the researcher is interested to conduct research about the use direct feedback strategy to teach writing. From the information above, the most three problematic grammatical errors made by the students are prepositions, text, and past tense verbs (Bitchener et al., 2005; Ellis et al., 2008; Sheen, 2007). Most of the student's mistakes in writing is about grammar. It is the teacher role to use strategy in direct feedback because it will be useful to use it to reduce or help the students' mistakes in writing skill. One topic about student' views toward the teacher feedback on their written errors showed in studies: Chenowith, Day, Chun, &Luppescu (1983); Cohen (1987); Cohen &Cavalcanti (1990); Ferris (1995); Ferris & Roberts (2001); Ferris et al. (2000); Hedgcock&Lefkowitz (1994); Komura (1999); Leki (1991 ); Radecki& Swales (1988); and Rennie (2000). It has consistently reported that students want such error feedback. This is the teacher's advantages, because most of students want such error feedback from the teacher. The teacher can give the students' stages of process writing feedback in revising and editing stages. According to Ferris and Roberts (2001), the most popular type of feedback is underlining with description, followed by direct correction, and underlining is the third. That's kinds of ways make the teacher to get much attention from the students in applying direct feedback strategy in teaching of writing. The phenomena shows that most teachers prefer focus on the product of writing to focus on the process of writing. As a result, the competition that the students write is poor in terms of the overall categories in ESL Composition Profile including content, organization, vocabulary, language use, and mechanics. It occurs since the teacher does not provide guidance through the process of writing and considers writing as a finished piece of competition. In fact, writing is not only the matter of composition as a finished piece of writing, but also the evaluation of the writing process. Therefore, in order to enable the students to write an acceptable English composition, the teacher has better focus on the process approach in which the process of writing is involved. Process approach is considered as the appropriate method to teach writing in which it pays serious attention to the various activities which are believed to promote the development of skilled language use (Nunan, 1991:86). Furthermore, Raimes in Richars (2005:305-509), in principled process approach, the product of writing, accuracy, and grammar are important. It shows that if the teacher focuses on the process of writing when he or she teaches writing, it does not mean that he or she merely focuses on the writing process itself, but also on the quality of the final product. Therefore, the process of writing is considered as the appropriate method to teach writing since it enables the students to write an acceptable English competition. From those, the researcher tends interested to observe this phenomenon by emerging a question that is "to what extent does the teacher apply direct feedback in writing?" The researcher was trying to analyze the activities during the teaching and learning process that using Direct Feedback as strategy. According to those reasons the researcher did a research according to the following research questions To what extent does the teacher apply direct feedback to correct student's grammatical errors in writing? To what extent does the teacher apply direct feedback to correct student's vocabularies in writing? To what extent does the teacher apply direct feedback to correct student's mechanics in writing? This study is conducted to describe only focused on the implementation of Direct Feedback strategy in teaching of writing. Writing is a part of learning process besides listening, speaking, and reading. According to Petty and Jensen (1980:399) writing is an activity that creates ideas or opinions in a composition by using writing convention: it is ideas though, feeling expressed in written way. This is in line with Nunan (2003:88) views that writing is the mental work of inventing ideas, thinking about how to express them into statements and paragraphs that will be clear to the reader. It means that writing is combination of some words to deliver the ideas in written language. Besides that, writing is also a language skill that is used to communicate indirectly. It means that the written language is not used to communicate face to face. According to Broughton et al (1980), writing is different from speaking because it involves an activity that is both private and public. here it means writing is considered a private activity because when the writer write or arrange a composition, he or she works individually, but it is also considered as a public activity because the result of his or her writing is intended for an audience. Others, according to Boughy (1997), writing is considered as a tool for the creation of ideas and the merger of the linguistic system by using it for communicative objectives in an interactive way. From this opinion writing indirectly the successful transmission of ideas from a writer to a reader via text and this exchange of information becomes an effective means to motivate and encourage the development of the students in language skills. Harmer (2007: 325-327) stated that there are four stages in the writing process: they are planning, drafting, editing, and final version. In this study the researcher will use Harmer' concept: Planning In the planning stage the teacher arranges the students to plan their work before making a draft by exploring the ideas and information regarding the topic. Reading and discussing, thinking critically and interpreting, and brainstorming are examples of exploring. Boas (2011) says that planning stage is used for brainstorming ideas which are related to their lives and what they want to write.Moreover, in planning the teacher encourage the students to make an outline that includes thesis statement and supporting ideas which then are developed into an essay. Drafting The second stage is draftingwhere the students develop the outline into a whole essay. In this stage, the teacher asks the students to write anything on their mind to compose the essay in form of the rough draft without thinking the regularity of their writing. Editing The third stage is editing, where the students revise their rough draft. In editing, the teacher encourages the students to revise their draft by considering several aspects, such as: the relevancy between thesis statement and the topic, the topic paragraph should be used in beginning of the paragraph, and the content should relate with the thesis statement. Or also the students can check the content, grammar, vocabulary, mechanics, and so on.Moreover, producing a cohesive another coherent essay is a must and can only be done by enlarging the argument or opinion, and ideas to make an elaborate explanation that is coherent from one to another. Final Version The last one is final version, where the teacher asks the students to compose their draft carefully, find, and edit their grammatical, lexical, and mechanical errors before submitting their work. In this stage, the teacher must ensure the students that their final works are free from previous errors since it can affect the content of their final product. But the students still have chance to rethink what they have written and go back to editing stage or even planning stage. Like Harmer (2012:129) states that writing stages are like writing cycle, if it is necessary to add ideas or edit their writing, we can go back to the previous stage or stages. But if it does not need to edit, the students can do their writing final version. Feedback can be classified according to the following: The performer (the provider) of feedback (teacher, peer, self and CALL Computer Assisted Language Learning), the timing of feedback (delayed and immediate feedback) and the form of feedback (direct and indirect feedback), the method of performance of feedback (oral and written feedback), the concentration on a specific item in feedback (grammar, spelling and etc.), the stage of process writing feedback and the effect of feedback (feedback in revising, editing stages). The purpose of this study will be explained to two types of the teacher's written feedback. Here the types, they are: Direct and Indirect feedback. The first type of the teacher's written feedback is direct feedback. Danny and Randolph & Karen (2010) Altena& Pica (2010) Direct teacher feedback simply means that the teacher provides the students with the correct form of their errors or mistakes whether this feedback is provided orally or written. It shows them what is wrong and how it should be written, but it is clear that it leaves no work for them to do and chance for them to think what the errors and the mistakes are. The second type of the teacher's written feedback is indirect feedback. In this type, there are two types of feedback coded indirect feedback and uncoded indirect feedback. As for the first type "coded indirect feedback", the teacher underlines the errors or mistakes for the students and then the teacher writes the symbol above the targeted error or mistake and then the teacher gives the composition to the student to think what the error is as this symbol helps the student to think. In the second type, the uncoded indirect feedback, the teacher underlines or circles the error or the mistake and the teacher doesn't write the correct answer or any symbols and the student thinks what the error is and corrects. Teacher is one of the sources of feedback. In providing feedback, writing teachers have at least four roles: as a reader or respondent, as a writing teacher or guide, as a grammarian, and as an evaluator. As Keh (1990) and Hedgcock and Leftkowitz (1996) suggest at least four roles that writing teachers play while providing written feedback to students: a reader or respondent, a writing teacher or guide, a grammarian, and an evaluator or judge. For the first roles, is about the teacher as a reader or as a respondent. In this role, the teachers respond to the content and they may show agreement about an idea or content of the text. Teachers may provide positive feedback such as "You made a good point" or "I agree with you" without giving any suggestion or correction. The second is the teacher as a writing teacher or as a guide. That is, teachers may show their concern about certain points or confusing or illogical ideas in students' text. In this case, teachers still maintain their role as a reader by only asking for clarification or expressing concerns and questions about certain points in the text without giving any correction. They may, however, refer students to strategies for revision such as choices of problem solving or providing a possible example. The third is the teacher as a grammarian. The teacher writes comments or corrective feedback with reference to grammatical mistakes and relevant grammatical rules. Teachers may provide a reason as to why a particular grammatical form is not correct or not suitable for a certain context such as choice of tense, use of article, or preposition. In this case, the teacher may also give elaborate explanation of grammatical rules to help students improve their text. As a grammarian, teacher can provide different function and strategies of feedback. One of the functions of feedback is to provide error correction or corrective feedback. Corrective feedback generally aims at addressing grammatical errors on students' writing. In addressing grammatical errors on students' writing, teachers can employ different strategies of providing feedback such as direct feedback strategy. Direct feedback, which is a strategy to help the students correct their errors by providing the correct form of the target language. Teacher feedback can also be provided with explicit corrective comments, that is by not only indicating an error but also providing the correct form with explicit grammatical explanation or linguistic rules of the target language. The last in fourth roles, is the teacher as an evaluator or judge. It is very common that many writing teachers may act only as an evaluator whose main role is to evaluate the quality of students' writing as an end product of a writing process (Arndt, 1992) and grade students' writing based on their evaluation. Discrepancies in findings, or in interpreting these findings, have sparked a debate in the last 15 years on whether corrective feedback is effective or ineffective. The debate was initiated by Truscott (1996) who unalterably holds that feedback, in the form of grammatical error correction, is neither effective nor useful, and even harmful for student learning. Therefore, he suggests that corrective feedback should be abandoned. In contrary, Chandler (2003) and Ferris (1999) argue that corrective feedback is effective and helpful in reducing the errors on students' essays. More recent studies also lend support, providing evidence in favor of corrective feedback Bitchener (2008); Bitchener et al. (2005);Ellis et al. (2008). Based on the findings of their studies, they maintain that teacher corrective feedback is effective and helpful for students in improving grammatical accuracy in writing their essays. From the above informations, it can be concluded that direct feedback is effective to be used in teaching writing. Teaching writing using direct feedback is considered as an important since it gave the teacher chances to increase the students ability in writing by using learned-centered style. Since previous statements have considered that learned-centered style in form of peer or group work is preferred than compositions because it offers interaction and sharing ideas between students. However, before implementing the strategy the teacher should make the process steps before starting applying direct feedback as strategy in teaching writing. The implementation of Direct Feedback strategy in teaching writing recount text should include writing process; they are planning, drafting, editing, and final version Harmer (2007: 325-327). Based on those concept, the implementation of Direct Feedback strategy in teaching writing recount text in the class have some activities to do. They are: The teacher explains the nature of recount text, it start from the purpose, the function, the generic structure, and the language features to the students by some modification by using brandstorming or etc. The teacher also gives example of recount text to the students in order to make the students understand with the teacher's explanation and example of how to make mind mapping. The teacher gives the students some topics to write recount text. The teacher asks the students to make such like mind mapping as the planning stage. The students make mind mapping to write down their ideas they want to write it individually. After the students make mind mapping on their recount text, the teacher asks them to exchange their work in pairs. They can give comments, questions, suggestions, and corrections about the content, organization, vocabulary, language use, and mechanic on their partner mind mapping to compose into recount text draft. Then each student can write their recount text draft based on their friend questions, suggestions, comments, and corrections. The next activity is sharing. In this case, the teacher calls some students randomly one by oneto come forward to show their recount text by writing their text into white board. Therefore, the other students get patient too and also learn which one is not appropriate word, the mechanics, or the content by giving comments orsuggestions. And the most necessary, the teacher givesDirect Feedback to their recount text. Teacher gives direct feedback by giving explicit corrective comments, symbols, or underlining. Ellis et al. (2006) suggest that explicit corrective comments can take two forms: (a) explicit correction in which teacher response clearly indicates what is incorrect and provides the correct form, or (b) metalinguistic feedback which explains grammatical or linguistic rules. Lyster and Ranta (1997) define metalinguistic feedback as "comments, information, or questions related to the well-formedness of the learner's utterance without explicitly providing the correct form" (p. 47). Finally, the students submit their recount text result as the final version to the teacher on the next meeting. METHODS Based on the research problems and the objective of the study, the researcher used descriptive qualitative method. Descriptive qualitative studies simply describe phenomena. Descriptive method describes and interprets what exists.The purpose of this study is to describe to what extent the teacher applies direct feedback to correct student's grammatical errors in writing, to describe to what extent the teacher applies direct feedback to correct student's vocabularies in writing, and to describe to what extent the teacher applies direct feedback to correct student's mechanics in writing. According to Cohen, et al (2007:461), the aims of descriptive qualitative are to describe, to summarize, to prove, to examine the application and to operate the same problems in different contexts. The purpose of this study is to describe the teaching learning process in the form of words not in the form of numbers, because this study is descriptive qualitative. Moreover, Bogdan and Biklen (1992:28) state that the data collected should be in the form of words or pictures rather than numbers. The data in this study described in the form of words, sentences, or paragraphs to describe the implementation, the students' responses, and the students recount writing text result using Direct Feedback strategy in teaching writing recount text.Descriptive qualitative method means that the researcher only goes to the field, finds some data, states research question, collect some data, analyze the data and finally reports it. The data is the problem which is found in the field. The problem means that the condition found in the field is not like the condition expected. The subject of the study is an English teacher who teach in a high school of Surabaya. The researcher chose the subject because one of the teachers had implemented Direct Feedback method in the teaching writing in her class.Cohen, et al (2007:461) states that descriptive qualitative focuses on smaller numbers of people than quantitative research.Therefore, the researcher only chooses an English teacher who teaches English in X-IPA 10 class. The setting of the study was the place where the researcher conducted the study. The researcher was conducting the study at SMAN 15 Surabaya which is located in Jl. Menanggal selatan no. 103 Surabaya, the class of X-IPA-10 year 2013 and 2014. These class consist of 36 students, 16males and 20females. This research conducted in the classroom where the teacher hadusedDirect Feedback strategy in teaching writing recount text. Furthermore, the classroom is provide by facilities which support the learning activivities, such as White board, LCD, AC, Computer, sound, television and a laptop. The students have arranged the chairs and tables well in order to make them study easily. Data is very important for this study because from by using data the researcher knew the result of her study through this data, and the data were answer the research questions. In this study the researcher do not use questionnaire, it is to avoid dishonesty and to anticipate that the subjects would not complete the questions. The data of the study taken from the teaching learning process that done by the teacher who using direct feedback as strategy in teaching writing in the classroom. To get the data, the researcher wrote field notes to observe the teacher's activities when giving direct feedback in the teaching and learning process. The data represented in the post activity of the teacher when giving the students direct feedback while learning in the classroom. There were three kinds of qualitative data to answer the research questions of this study. The first data were the description of teachers' expressions and comments while giving correction about grammatical errors and direct feedback to the students. (1) (1) Teacher : Teacher : Okay, I will check the Savira's text. By the way, for the grammatical errors she did some mistakes. For example: in the first paragraph line 1 "I had a terrible and tiring day last weekend", here (a) it should be omitted. In paragraph one Line 2 "In the morning, I was waking up at 5 a.m. and prayedsubuh", if in the beginning you use waking as a verb so second verb prayed should be using (–ing) to. So it should be praying. Next, in line 5 "we must joined" it should be write "join", because must be followed by Verb1. Last, in line 11 you wrote "my other key" it should be used "the". Next, for Afanin's text. Okay you did same with Safira's text in grammatical errors. For example: you wrote "after that, me and my mother cooked some food for lunch", it should be used we. Then for the sentence "I went to bookstore to boughtsome book", it should be buy because you have use went as your verb. Last for "I do my homework" it should be written did. These data were used to answer the first research question "to what extent does the teacher apply direct feedback to correct student's grammatical errors in writing?". The second data were the description of teachers' expressions and comments while giving correction about vocabularies and direct feedback to the students. (2) (2) Teacher : Teacher : And for vocabulary, it just for the first paragraph line 3 "I accompanied my mother (.)to shop" between my mother and to it should be add "go". For the last paragraph, "InSunday morning" remembers it should be on just like Ataya did before. But, so far I think your word choices were good. And talk about "like yesterday" I think it should be wrote the day before. This is correction for your vocabulary. It is also in sentence "I accompanied my mother to (.) the market" here it should be add go to, and also like we went (.) to the mall" it should be added go. These data were used to answer the second research question "to what extent does the teacher apply direct feedback to correct student's vocabularies in writing?". The third data were the description of teachers' expressions and comments while giving correction about mechanics and direct feedback to the students. (3) (3) Teacher : Teacher : So the last correction is about mechanics. It showed in line 16 "I was watching television" it should be added (a) between watching and television. "I was watching a television". Over all your writing are good Safira. So keeps on this track but you can explore more. Okay, that's very good. Okay then, pay attention to the mention things like "some vegetables, like carrot , tomato, spinach , onion , garlic , ginger , curcuma, and many more and also bought some fish, shrimp, and chicken."Here you have decided space from kind of vegetables itself and others thing. You should write some vegetables, they are likes carrot, tomato, spinach, onion, garlic, ginger, curcuma, etc. We also bought more, such as fish, shrimp, and chicken. And for your mechanics, there are lot mistakes about your punctuation. Such like in the first paragraph "last weekend ( , ) I had a lot of activities". You used comma but you add space after weekend, it should be not space after weekend. Double space is not necessary guys. So the good one is like last weekend, I had a…. Okay, for your right spelling and capitalization are good, but please pay attention about your punctuation and your paragraphing.yah? Is it clear for you guys? These data were used to answer the third research question "to what extent does the teacher apply direct feedback to correct student's mechanics in writing?". The source of data for this study was the teacher who use direct feedback strategy to correct the students mistakes in the teaching and learning process. Data collection technique means how the researcher collects data. In this study the researcher collected the data by conducting observation field notes as a qualitative. Bogdan and Biklen in Moleong (2005: 209) stated field note is written note about what was heard, seen, thought and had been around in order to collect as well as reflect the data in qualitative research. Here, the researcher done non-participant observation. It means that she does not participate directly and influence in the teaching and learning process. The writer wrote all of information about everything that happening during the teaching and learning process in the form of long note. Here is the observation that was done by the teacher: Observation, in this research the researcher used observation field notes. She used this observation because she wanted to find out the application of the teaching and learning process in the classroom of their recount writing. The researcher did this observation by writing and record all of the activities of the teacher and the students while direct feedback is implemented. In this research, all the data obtained through observation field notes were analyzed inductively in order to answer research questions stated in chapter one. After collecting the data then the researcher did the next step, that was analyzed the data. This is the qualitative study thus the data analyzed inductively, in words rather than in numbers. The steps of data analysis have done during the data collection technique: 1) Organized the data during the observation, and then decided what have to be reported. 2) After analyzing the data, the researcher described the data by classifying them into parts based on the problems of the study. 3) The researcher tried to make conclusion. They showed whether the use of direct feedback strategy was suitable or not with the theory. In addition, by analyzing the data obtained, the researcher was written and recorded the teacher activity when direct feedback strategy is applied in the classroom. It included the teacher correction about grammatical errors, vocabularies and mechanics. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS The result and discussions is the answer of the problems based in introductions. The data were taken through the observation and only focused on the teacher activities during the implementation of Direct Feedback strategy in the teaching and learning process. The Implementation of Direct Feedback Strategy The data were obtained through the observation that was focused in the teachers' activities during the implementation of direct feedback strategy in the teaching and learning process. The implementation of the research was done only in one meeting. The implementation of Direct Feedback strategy method was divided into four stages, they are planning, drafting, editing, and final version. Then in providing feedback, the teacher at least has four roles such as a reader or respondent, as a writing teacher or guide, as a grammarian, and as an evaluator. The observation was conducted on September 30th, 2013. The subject of the study is an English teacher who teaches in a high school of Surabaya. The researcher chose the subject because one of the teacher's had implemented Direct Feedback method in the teaching writing in her class. Therefore, the researcher only chooses an English teacher who teaches English in X-IPA 10 class. Actually there were 36 students in this class, but three students were absent without any reason or information. Therefore, there were 33 students who consist of 16 male's students and 20 female's students in class X-IPA 10. The teacher started the class with opening session, for instance, greeting the students, checking the attendance list, and asking the students to prepare the lesson. The teacher did not introduced the researcher in front of the students, because of the teacher did not need the students to feeling nervous or uncomfortable if she explained about the researcher who want to record the activities in the beginning until the end of the lesson. The Applying of Direct Feedback Strategy to Correct Student's Grammatical Errors in Writing The result from the observation show that the teacher had been explained the student mistakes' about grammar. It showed when the teacher gives feedback with explicit corrective comments; she was not only indicating an error but also providing the correct form with explicit grammatical explanation or linguistic rules of the target language. As Ellis et al. (2006) suggest that explicit corrective comments can take two forms: (a) explicit correction in which teacher response clearly indicates what is incorrect and provides the correct form, or (b) metalinguistic feedback which explains grammatical or linguistic rules. So, here the teacher has applied direct feedback as strategy in writing to correct the student's grammatical errors. In the previous studies that providing explicit corrective comments through explanation of grammatical rules or metalinguistic information is advantageous for students in the long run, that it raises students' grammatical awareness, and engages students in problem-solving activities to discover the correct forms see Bitchener et al (2005), Ellis et al. (2006), Ferris &Hedgcock (2005), Nagata (1997), Varnosfadrani&Basturkmen (2009). The findings of the current study, in line with other previous studies, clearly indicate that teacher corrective feedback is useful and effective in helping ESL/EFL students in reducing their grammatical errors not only in subsequent revisions but also in the new essay. Furthermore, providing teacher corrective feedback in the form of indirect feedback followed by direct feedback accompanied with explicit corrective comments help students correct their grammatical errors more effectively than other feedback strategies, especially compared to direct feedback strategy. By doing so, the students got the essay way to edited or revised their works because they got some corrections and suggestions from their friends in pairs and from the teacher when the teacher gave them direct feedback. Jacobs et al (1997:20) says that the students can share to the other groups in front of the class and the students can edit their recount text writing depend on their friends comments, suggestions, corrections about the content, organization, vocabulary, language use, and mechanic in writing recount text. The Applying of Direct Feedback Strategy to Correct Student's Vocabularies in Writing Based on the result which are gained from the analyzed of data,the teacher had took examples from Safira and Afanin Text's. It showed that the teacher had corrected the students' mistakes' about vocabularies. In vocabulary component, those were two students who considered as write less mistakes in their writing text. As (Ellis, 2008; Ferris, 2006), stated that direct feedback may be done in various ways such as by striking out an incorrect or unnecessary word, phrase, or morpheme; inserting a missing or expected word, phrase, or morpheme; and by providing the correct linguistic form above or near the erroneous form, usually above it or in the margin. It means that, the teacher had correct the students' mistakes by doing some ways to correct their vocabularies, such as by striking out an incorrect or unnecessary word, phrase, or morpheme; and inserting a missing or expected word, phrase, or morpheme. It is been shown when the teacher corrects Safira's text. She corrected her mistakes by inserting a missing word. And from Afanin's text, she gave by striking out an incorrect or unnecessary word like yesterday to be the day before. From the above correction, it is clear that the teacher applied direct feedback strategy to correct the students' vocabularies by using that ways. So that is the essays way to encourage the students to get the motivation because the teacher not only giving them such corrective correction but they also know what else their mistakes by using self-correction in the next time. The Applying of Direct Feedback Strategy to Correct Student's Mechanics in Writing In these criteria, the students had few errors of spelling, capitalization, and paragraphing. It means that the students were occasional errors of spelling, punctuation, capitalization, paragraphing but the meaning was not obscured. From the data analyzed indicate that the teacher correct the students' mistakes in term of the mechanics. After the teacher giving those students text's direct feedback correction, she always asked to the students any question or also suggestion. Based from those results which are gained from analysis of the data, the researcher concluded that the teacher did her implementation of direct feedback strategy method that was divided into four stages, they are planning, drafting, editing, and final version. Also in providing feedback, the teacher at least did her four roles such as a reader or respondent, as a writing teacher or guide, as a grammarian, and as anevaluator. From those, it can be concluded that the teacher had applied Direct Feedback to correct the student's essays that includes three elements; they are grammatical errors, vocabularies, and mechanics. Ideally, the teacher feedback should address to all aspects of student texts such as content, ideas, organization, rhetorical structure, grammar, and mechanics. Because it will consume much time, so the teacher only focused to correct on the students grammatical errors, vocabularies and mechanics. It was supported by Ferris (2003b) notes that teachers' priorities for student writing as well as feedback provision have changed over time from focusing mostly on sentence-level correction as reported in the 1980s Cumming (1985), Kassen (1988), Sommers (1982), Zamel (1985) to more aspects of student writing including ideas, organization, grammar, and mechanics in the 1990s Ferris (1995-1997), Ferris, Pezone, Tade, &Tinti (1997) Kepner (1991), Hedgcock&Lefkowitz (1994). However, providing comprehensive or unfocused feedback on all errors on students' writing can be time-consuming and exhaustive for both teachers and students because it corrects all of the errors in students' work and can be considered extensive Ellis, Sheen, Murakami, & Takashima (2008). By doing these strategy, the teacher had find out that most of the students were did mistakes in the grammatical errors. But, for the vocabularies and mechanics, the students did fewer mistakes in their essays. CONCLUSSION AND SUGGESTION Conclusion In this study, there are two conclusions got from the result of the study that are obtained from the observation, they are: (1) Direct feedback strategy can be used as teaching technique in teaching writing recount text to the tenth grade students of SMAN in Surabaya. The implementation of direct feedback as strategy in teaching writing of recount text divided into four stages, those are: Planning stage, in planning stage the teacher had given brainstorming and arranged the students to plan their work by exploring the ideas and information regarding to the topic. The teacher also had encouraging the students to make an outline that included thesis statement and supporting ideas which were developed into an essay. As Boas (2011) states that planning stage is used for brainstorming ideas which are related to their lives and what they want to write. Drafting stage, in drafting stage the teacher had asked the students to write their ideas into the essay in form of draft. This stage where the students developed the outline into a whole essay. Editing stage, in editing stage before the teacher gave direct feedback; she had corrected the student's essay and let the students to change their works in pairs. Because in this term, the students had a chance to discuss and get comment or suggestion from their partner Jacobs et.al (1997:14). After that, the teacher applied direct feedback strategy by giving some correction from the student's essay one by one in front of the class. Final version stage, in final version the teacher had given the students direct feedback and the students had shared their draft in front of the class. It included feedback from the teacher and from the students; comments or suggestions. Then the teacher let the students had to edit and submit the final version of their recount text on next meeting. (2) The use of Direct Feedback strategy could help the tenth grade students of SMAN in Surabaya in learning writing recount text. It showed from the editing stage, when the teacher applied Direct Feedback to correct the student's essays in front of the class that includes three elements; they were grammatical errors, vocabularies, and mechanics, she found out that most of the students did the same mistakes. It came from the grammatical errors. For the vocabularies and mechanics, the students did fewer mistakes in their essays. The students also were getting enthusiastic when the teacher asked them to write a recount text based on the theme and their own experience, because the students could be more focus in writing recount text than usual (Kagan, 2004). As a result, direct feedback strategy was appropriate for the students in teaching and learning writing. Because the students usually got errors in their works and they were not easy to do self-correction such as sentence structure or word choice. From those, by using direct feedback the teacher could help the student's difficulties such as using appropriate, accurate and complete responses, correct spelling and punctuation, ensuring minimum word limit, grammatical accuracy, range of sentence structure, and range of vocabulary in writing activity. And by using direct feedback the teacher could decreasing the students' mistakes in writing activity. As noted by Cardelle and Corno (1981), the more feedback students receive, the better they understand what they need to do to correct their mistakes. It also prove by Kulhavy (1977) the understanding of why they make mistakes and how to correct such mistakes helps students correct their mistakes and increase their achievement. It means that the student who receives feedback would have information about which parts of their texts need to be corrected and improved. Carless (2006) confirms that students who receive feedback during the writing process have a clearer sense of how well they are performing and what they need to do to improve. As feedback is meant for helping students narrow or close the gap between their actual ability and the desired performance Brookhart (2003). Teachers are responsible for helping students develop their ability to reach their learning goals through teachers' feedback. Suggestion Based on the data interpretation and the previous conclusion, the researcher has some suggestions to the teachers and the other researcher. The researcher constructs her suggestions as follows: (1) The teacher has to minimize the time consuming when she check the attendance the students. It means that the teacher should not call the student's name one by one. (2) In the process of teaching, the teacher should know and understand the students' characteristics. It means that the teacher does not give the students too much explaining or reminding them. (3) The researcher would like to invite next researchers who conduct the similar study to make improvement on this study, such as using the same field but different subjects. It means they can use the other subjects. (4) For the teacher and other researcher, the writer suggest to gives feedback for correct the content and organization. REFERENCES Arndt, V. (1992). Response to writing: Using feedback to inform the writing process. In M. N. Brock and L. Walters (Eds.), Teaching composition around the Pacific Rim: Politics andpedagogy (90-116). Avon, UK: Multingual Matters. Altena, l& Pica, T. (2010). The Relevance of Second Language Acquisition to Written Feedback on Advanced Second Language Writing. Unpublished PhD, University of Pennsylvania.3414220. Bitchener, J. (2008). Evidence in support of written corrective feedback. Journal of SecondLanguage Writing, 17, 102-118. Bitchener, J., & Knoch, U. (2009). The relative effectiveness of different types of directwritten corrective feedback. System, 37, 322-329. Bitchener, J., & Knoch, U. (2010). The Contribution of Written Corrective Feedback toLanguage Development: A Ten Month Investigation. Applied Linguistics, 31(2),193-214 Bitchener, J., Young, S., & Cameron, D. (2005). The effect of different types of correctivefeedback on ESL student writing. Journal of Second Language Writing, 14, 191-205. Carless, D. (2006). Differing perceptions in the feedback process. Studies in Higher Education, 31(2), 219-233. Chandler, J. (2003). The efficacy of various kinds of error feedback for improvement in theaccuracy and fluency of L2 student writing. Journal of Second Language Writing,12, 267-269. Cramer, S., et al. (2008). Online or Face-to-Face? Which Class to Take. Voices from the Middle, (2), 25. Elashri, I. I. (2013). The Impact of the Direct Teacher Feedback Strategy on the EFL Secondary Stage Students' Writing performance. Mesir: Mansoura University. Ellis, R., Sheen, Y., Murakami, M., & Takashima, H. (2008). The effects of focused andunfocused written corrective feedback in an English as a foreign language context.System, 36, 353-371. Ferris, D. (2003b). Responding to writing. In B. Kroll (Ed.), Exploring the dynamics of second language writing, (pp. 119-140). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Ferris, D. R. (2004). The "Grammar Correction" debate in L2 writing: Where are we, and where do we go from here? (and what do we do in the meantime…?). Journal of SecondLanguage Writing, 13, 49-62. Ferris, D. (2006). Does error feedback help student writers? New evidence on the short- and long-term effects of written error correction. In K. Hyland and F. Hyland (Eds.), Feedback in second language writing: Context and issues (pp. 81-104). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Ferris, D. R., & Hedgcock, J. S. (2005). Teaching ESL composition: Purpose, process, and practice (2nd ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. Harmer, J. (2007). The Practice of English Language Teaching. Fourth Edition, UK: Cambridge. Jacobs, G. M., Curtis, A., Braine, G., & Huang, S. Y. (1998). Feedback on student writing: Taking the middle path. Journal of Second Language Writing, 7(3), 307-317. Jacobs, H., Zinkgraf, S., Wormuth, D., Hartfiel, V. F., & Hughey, J. (1981). Testing ESLComposition: A practical approach. Rowley, MA: Newbury House. Lee, I. (2003). L2 writing teachers' perspectives, practices and problems regarding errorfeedback. Assessment Writing, 8, 216-237. Keh, C. L. (1990). Feedback in the writing process: A model and methods for implementation.ELT Journal, 44(4), 294-304. Lee, I. (2008). Understanding teachers' written feedback practices in Hong Kong secondaryclassrooms. Journal of Second Language Writing, 17, 69-85. Lyster, R., & Ranta, L. (1997). Corrective feedback and learner uptake: Negotiation of form incommunicative classrooms. Studies in Second Language Acquisition, 20, 37-66. Merrill, D. M. (1994). Instructional design theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: EducationalTechnology Publications. Merrill, D. M. (2002). Instructional strategies and learning styles: Which takes precedence?In R. A. Reiser & J. V. Dempsey (Eds.), Trends and issues in instructional design andtechnology (99-106). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education Inc. Nunan, D. (. (2003). Practice English Language Teaching. New York: Mc. Graw Hill Education. Othman, N.B. (2005). Feedback Lesson on Writing Assessment with Four Different Scoring Strategies. Malaysia: Pendidikan Sultan Idris University. Purnawarman, P. 2011. Impacts of Different Types of Teacher Corrective Feedback in Reducing Grammatical Errors on ESL/EFL Students' Writing. Virginia: Polytechnic Institute and State University. Randolph, T & Lea, K. (2010).A study of Teacher Feedback in Small Groups with Weekly Writing Assignments. Unpublished, Ed.D. Dissertation, Trevecca Nazarene University, 3413061. Sujoko. 1989. Error Analysis. Surakarta: Sebelas Maret University Press. Taken from http://www.whitesmoke.com/the-stages-of-writing, Retrived July 26, 2013 at 12.20.p.m.
2007/2008 ; FASB introduction of FIN 46/R variable interest consolidation model proved revolutionary as it ties up the accounting to the economic/financial frameworks and the judicial one. Legal structures and agreements among stakeholders of entities, creating net assets' variability, have from now on to be compared with expected losses and expected returns distribution, prior to identify which stakeholder will need to consolidate pursuant this Interpretation. As a result, return variability gains weight in the definition of variable interest entity with consequences still to be completely digested by practitioners and reporting enterprises. Because of the implementation of this Interpretation, consolidation by a party that absorbs most of the entity expected losses will have precedence even over stock-ownership's control by the parent company (voting rights driven). The revolution though is only meant for a wide, yet selected, subset of entities' classes being securitisations, life and health insurances and governmental organisations aimed for profit, left outside the scope of this Interpretation. Consolidation through variable interest model is the result of four major steps. First alone is the definition of entity, being any legal structure to conduct activities and hold assets. Second, the identification of the variable interests in it, deriving from recognition of the aggregate which fair value changes with changes in fair value of net assets, exclusive of variable interests. These changes in fair value are considered regardless of embedded voting rights; hence, mezzanine finance, preferred stock and any hybrid equity instrument in general need to be detailed in their features prior to taking further decision. Third, the estimate of expected losses and residual returns whose value relevance has been given vast insight in this paper. Fourth and last step, the recognition of the primary beneficiary, when it exists, which is the party that absorbs the greatest share of expected losses and/or that benefits the most from expected residual returns and ultimately, the party that will consolidate the variable interest in object. Throughout the variable interest consolidation process, the concept of 'equity at risk' is introduced by FASB to define which is the effective portion of equity that absorbs variability created by net assets of the variable interest entity. Notwithstanding an introduced sufficiency test, aimed at deducting from US GAAP equity, all components that are not legal obligations to capitalise the entity, still difficulties exist. This is due to a series of exclusions namely; legal equity is to be deducted of fees, loans or guarantees thereof, shares issued in exchange of subordinated interests in other VIEs shall be subtracted as well from equity at risk, in the end also investments to be considered non significant shall be deducted. In this regard, valuations are either explicitly or implicitly to be done at fair value, hence book values need to make room for financial analysis giving in this respect value relevance to the Interpretation. The 'equity at risk' concept is the result of deductions that run through both sides of the balance sheet. Particular judgment shall be used in evaluating guarantees and other off-balance sheet obligations. This paper takes also in consideration the test proposed by FASB for 'non significant investments' proposing a refined method to reduce variability in interpretative judgment by the reporting entity. Furthermore, FASB identifies a new category of VIEs: variable interests in specified subset of assets of a VIE (i.e. a guarantee) which can be treated as distinctive VIEs by FASB only if the fair value of the same assets is greater than 50% of the whole fair value of the entity. If so happens, then equity at risk is to be deducted accordingly and expected losses/residual returns (EXLS/EXRR) of this subset of assets is not considered for sake of determining the primary beneficiary. The distinct VIE, which in accounting goes also under the name of Silo, will have to be treated separately as another VIE. From this analysis on assets and financial structure, which is derived from CON 6, FASB correctly deconstructs the accountancy legacy notion of control by segregating the decision making ability on the VIE from the variability absorption rights and obligations. The former, given by the financial decisions on VIE's financial structure and by investment on net assets, the latter dictated by obligation to fund losses and to receive residual returns, i.e. by assigning the right to receive future residual returns and the obligation to make future capital contributions. Under a valuation viewpoint, assets and liabilities of newly consolidated VIE are measured at fair value while the ones already pertaining to a primary beneficiary, which is already a parent, remain reported at carrying value being already in the consolidated balance sheet of the controlling company. FIN 46/R in this way allows goodwill to be recognised for acquisitions of VIEs, which constitute businesses for use in this Interpretation. If the consideration paid for the VIE interest (carrying value plus premium/discount) is instead lower than the fair value of its net assets at consolidation, then a decrease in value of the newly consolidated assets shall be reported. Exception is made by cash & marketable securities, tax assets, post retirement plans and the likes. In this regard VIEs, which are not businesses will originate extraordinary gains or losses accordingly, in case of extraordinary gains, the value of the newly acquired assets is stepped-up pro quota. While FIN 46/R valuation principles of expected losses, expected residual returns and definition of balance sheets arising from VIE consolidation, resides on fair values, practitioners and reporting enterprises alike base their forecast from use of private information. This in turn, gives birth to entity-specific values, which take into account private information comprising of entity plans and current competitive strategy, which are a function of present industry positioning. Part of the process in determining EXLS/EXRR and the existence or not of a primary beneficiary, in line with the variable interest consolidation model, is to go through a profit variability analysis to be done through discounted cash flow models. To try to shed some more light on this regard we have first refreshed the mathematics of series of random variables with the objective to estimate VIEs' expected cash flows of income. VIEs are generally modelled as a random variable with statistic mean different from statistic mode, a fact omitted in some passages of FIN 46/R exposition. Subsequently we have underlined that the variability of returns is directly related with the interval of confidence set for distribution functions representing random variables when computing the reporting entity forecast of expected variability. The potential deadlock could be widening when different interest holders are implementing different modelling of the reporting entity which yield to different results, but still acceptable under the Interpretation prescriptions. FASB introduction of non-previous US GAAP measures like EXLS/EXRR are, as we believe, in need to be backed up by a more robust theoretical framework. To do so, we needed to characterise the choice of the discount rate. In this framework, we have once again taken the theoretical basis of cost of capital, highlighting the equivalence of the results of other methods; including pros and cons of the utility functions and certainty equivalence method and the risk adjusted probability method. We have then given evidence on why FASB should use the cost of capital method as the discount rate to compute income variability together with income streams. In fact, by using the cost of capital method, and the WACC deriving from CAPM, all financial risk is embedded in the discount rate leaving the reporting enterprise free to express in the books the operational risks known or of most suitable estimation. Nowadays marginal cost of debt and market value of equity are used in common practice, according with CAPM theory, and have their use extended to private businesses. The cost of capital for private enterprises make use of sensitivity correlation coefficient of the enterprise return over the market return (beta coefficient) are of difficult estimate for private entities although betas can be computed in a number of ways using assumptions which are proper of the enterprise and its industry peers. To close the chapter related to valuation, finally we have focused on how these methodologies are being implemented by corporate America realising that the fears for value relevancy and hardship in tailoring the application to the single entities is a shared feeling and still a process far from crystallisation. In particular, FASB does not impose a clear conversion from book values to either fair values or value-in-use ones. It neither rules out the use of different valuation methods, if not for particular aspects treated within its FSP 46/R-S, in the exercise of computation of expected variability, which we have to recognise has not been proper of the accountancy function until lately. This thesis proposes an algorithm that goes in detail in the application of FIN 46/R for a reporting enterprise taking into account all possible interrelations among interest holders and distinct interest in subset of assets. The algorithm brings to light the weaknesses in application of the Interpretation caused by potential interrelations between expected losses assessment and variable interests in specified assets, wherever the fair value of these is more than 50% of net assets, i.e. distinctive VIEs. The algorithm, despite being in line with FIN 46/R prescriptions, does not cope with situations of cross default of related parties' investors in the same VIE. However while the application of a cause and effect model is not always possible we think increased consolidation constraints would highly reduce these possibilities. In the process for determining if the reporting entity is a VIE, FASB develops also the 'at risk' test, highlighting once again the relevant weaknesses of the concepts of 'previous ability to finance operations without subordinate financial support' and 'comparability with other similar entities which autonomously finance themselves without subordinated support'. We believe that the "at risk test" should only be a numeric test to iron out misinterpretations and gain relevance in consistency. FASB introduction of an exclusion sufficiency test to exclude variable interests for being classified as VIEs leaves, in our opinion, some uncertainties to the 'participation in VIE design' concept or to the 'non significant interest' one. This test, we believe, ought not to be a determinant factor, the level of polarisation of risk/reward of the consideration should instead be the sole paramount predictor for exclusion. As far as the conditions used to determine if the entity has sufficient equity to sustain its operations without financial support, the condition sine qua non of the minimum 10% of equity value over total assets, coupled with the triad of valuation methods proposed by FASB, should have been more stringent and concise in its ruling. In fact, these methods leave again interpretative flexibility about the inputs used to demonstrate sufficiency. From a thorough profit variability analysis the thesis compares how the responsibilities and efforts to cope with FIN 46/R requirements are distributed among VIE stakeholders, namely auditors, reporting enterprises, standard setters and regulators. This has been done comparing the use of CON 7 approach to the traditional cost of capital approach used in corporate finance. Furthermore, we have put in evidence that by implementing FIN 46/R VIEs entities tend naturally to overstate income variability valuations, being income streams discounted at Rf, heightening capital requirements. We would like to close by making a forecast on long-term developments that we envisage this Interpretation will bring forward, by starting to think on which are the VIEs stakeholders that are bound to be the most disadvantaged. This is again the class of primary beneficiaries of smaller sizes, which will have either to recourse to more lending to cover for capitalisation requirements and increased financial leverage, or face financial distress. Both cases are precursors to industry consolidation and forebears of globalisation, while the class most favoured will be the banking industry. ; RIASSUNTO (ITALIAN): L'introduzione del FIN 46/R (FASB Interpretazione N. 46/R) da parte del FASB (Financial Accounting and Standards Board) si è dimostrata rivoluzionaria grazie al nuovo modello di consolidamento che si interpone tra il contesto economico finanziario e quello legale delle entità oggetto di questa interpretazione. Forma legale e relativi accordi tra stakeholders delle entità, definite come qualsiasi forma legale di impresa e veicolo finanziario, devono d'ora in poi essere confrontati con un'analisi della variabilità attesa degli utili prima di identificare quale stakeholder debba consolidare l'entità in oggetto (beneficiario primario). Di conseguenza il concetto di variabilità (varianza) dei redditi acquista un peso determinante nella definizione di variable interest entity (VIE) con conseguenze che devono essere ancora completamente digerite da professionisti e imprese che devono adeguarsi a questa interpretazione contabile. In virtù della stessa il consolidamento da parte del portatore di interessi che assorbe la maggioranza delle perdite attese ora avrà la precedenza perfino sull'azionista o sulla controllante che dovesse detenere la maggioranza assoluta dei diritti di voto. Questa rivoluzione è stata per ora intesa per un vasto, ma selezionato, insieme di classi di imprese, essendo ad esempio SPV di assicurazioni vita e veicoli finanziari di enti governativi a scopo di lucro lasciati (per ora) fuori dall'ambito di questa interpretazione. Il consolidamento attraverso il modello variable interest (VI) è il risultato di quattro passi. Innanzitutto, la definizione di entità comprendente qualsiasi forma legale intesa a compiere un'attività economica o a possedere degli attivi. Secondariamente l'identificazione dei cosiddetti interessi variabili nell'entità precedentemente definita; questi VI derivano dall'identificazione dell'aggregato dell'entità in analisi il cui fair value muta di valore al variare del valore dei net assets dell'entità al netto degli stessi interessi variabili. Le variazioni del fair value di questi asset sono considerate indipendentemente dai diritti di voto a loro associati, quindi forme ibride di capitale azionario quali azioni privilegiate, mezzanini e altri strumenti affini devono avere chiaramente dettagliate le loro caratteristiche prima di poter analizzare il loro comportamento e poter prendere una decisione. Terzo punto, la stima della variabilità attesa degli utili (perdite potenziali attese e utili residui attesi) della VIE la cui rilevanza ai fini della teoria del valore è stata data ampia trattazione in questa tesi. Quarto e ultimo passo, l'identificazione del beneficiario primario, quando questo esista, definito come la parte che assorbe la porzione maggiore di perdite e/o beneficia maggiormente degli utili residui e che, in ultima analisi, deve consolidare l'entità a interesse variabile in oggetto. Altrimenti la VIE è considerata tale da distribuire sufficientemente il rischio tra gli stakeholder. Attraverso il processo di consolidamento il concetto di 'capitale azionario a rischio' (Equity at risk) è introdotto da FASB per definire la frazione del capitale azionario che assorbe effettivamente la variabilità creata dal capitale investito netto (Net Assets) della VIE. Nonostante un apposito test (condizione sufficiente) sia stato proposto da FASB alcune difficoltà interpretative sono ancora presenti. Queste sono dovute ad una serie di deduzioni dal capitale legale che deve essere dedotto di pagamenti per servizi, prestiti o garanzie degli stessi. Azioni emesse in cambio di interessi subordinati in altre VIE dovranno altresì essere dedotti dal totale dell'Equity at Risk, così pure per gli investimenti di valore cosiddetto trascurabile (non-significant). Tutte le valutazioni al riguardo devono essere fatte al fair value, quindi i valori contabili dovranno sempre fare spazio all'analisi finanziaria dando rilevanza ai fini del valore a questa interpretazione. Il concetto di 'equity at risk' è il risultato di deduzioni prese da entrambi i lati dello stato patrimoniale. Particolare attenzione è richiesta nella valutazione delle garanzie e altri obblighi fuori bilancio. Questa tesi prende in considerazione anche il test proposto da FASB per valutare gli investimenti trascurabili (non-significant) proponendone uno alternativo che, secondo il nostro giudizio, ne riduce la varianza interpretativa in ambito di redazione del bilancio. Da questa analisi sugli asset e sulla struttura finanziaria, in accordo con i concetti CON 6, FASB correttamente smonta la nozione di controllo ereditata dall'attuale contabilità separando la capacità di prendere decisioni di gestione della VIE da obblighi e diritti di assorbimento della variabilità dei risultati economici della stessa. La prima è data dalle decisioni sulla struttura finanziaria e da quelle in merito agli investimenti nel capitale investito, la seconda dettata dagli obblighi di ricapitalizzare le perdite e di ricevere utili residui. All'atto del consolidamento gli elementi di stato patrimoniale della VIE vengono misurati al fair value mentre quelli che già sono di pertinenza del beneficiario primario con precedente ruolo di controllante (Parent Company) rimangono iscritte a bilancio al valore di carico essendo già parte del bilancio. In questo modo FIN 46/R permette il riconoscimento di un avviamento (goodwill) all'acquisizione di una VIE che si possa considerare come un'impresa ai fini di questa interpretazione. Se invece il prezzo corrisposto per l'interesse acquisito (valore di carico +/- premium/discount) è inferiore al fair value dei suoi net assets per effetto del consolidamento si dovrà registrare una diminuzione di valore degli asset appena consolidati. Eccezion fatta per cassa, crediti di imposta, fondi TFR e simili. In questo caso VIE che non sono assimilabili ad imprese origineranno conseguentemente una perdita (o utile) straordinaria, in caso di utile straordinario il valore del nuovo asset acquisito è aumentato pro-quota. Mente i principi di valutazione del FIN 46/R che riguardano la definizione di valori di bilancio originatisi dal consolidamento della VIE, risiedono interamente nel fair value, a professionisti e imprese è richiesto invece di basare le loro previsioni di variabilità degli utili su informazioni private, che quindi danno origine a valori di tipo entity-specific, comprensive dei piani aziendali in accordo con la strategia industriale adottata, che sono funzione dell'attuale posizionamento competitivo di settore. Questo è causa di problemi legati alla divulgazione di informazioni e indirettamente alla tracciabilità dei risultati. Parte del processo utilizzato per l'applicazione del VIE model passa per la stima della variabilità degli utili (Expected Lossess, Expected Residual Returns, EXLS/EXRR) e per la verifica dell'esistenza o meno del beneficiario primario. La stima è il frutto di un'analisi di variabilità (varianza) dei redditi attraverso l'uso di DCF (discounted cash flow models). Per fare chiarezza su questo punto abbiamo prima rivisitato alcuni aspetti delle serie di variabili aleatorie con l'obiettivo di caratterizzare il contesto teorico a corredo della stima del reddito/utile atteso della VIE. VIE possono essere generalmente modellizzate come una variabile aleatoria con una media statistica in generale diversa dalla moda statistica, un fatto omesso in alcuni passaggi dell'esposizione del FIN 46/R che può portare ad incertezze in fase implementativa dell'interpretazione. Successivamente abbiamo sottolineato che la variabilità dei redditi è direttamente connessa all'intervallo di confidenza fissato per le funzioni di distribuzione rappresentanti variabili aleatorie durante il calcolo della variabilità attesa della VIE. Il potenziale impasse si potrebbe allargare qualora differenti stakeholders dovessero usare un modello di stima diverso della VIE che potrebbe portare a risultati, seppur diversi, ugualmente accettabili secondo le prescrizioni di questa interpretazione. L'introduzione di definizioni quali EXLS/EXRR, precedentemente non parte dei principi US GAAP, crediamo necessitino di una più robusta trattazione teorica. Per fare questo abbiamo caratterizzato anche la scelta del saggio di sconto che FASB indica come il tasso privo di rischio. In questo contesto abbiamo preso come base la teoria del costo del capitale per poi evidenziare i punti deboli e quelli di forza di alcuni metodi quali l'equivalente certo, il metodo del costo del capitale e quello della probabilità corretta per il rischio (risk adjusted probability). Abbiamo quindi dato evidenza alle ragioni per cui FASB dovrebbe usare il metodo del costo del capitale che è dato dal tasso di sconto impiegato per calcolare la variabilità del reddito derivante dall'attualizzazione dei flussi di reddito. Infatti, usando il metodo del costo del capitale, il WACC derivante dall'implementazione del CAPM sconta tutto il rischio finanziario nel tasso, lasciando all'impresa libertà di esprimere nei libri contabili, e quindi nei flussi di reddito corrispondenti, il rischio operativo che è invece affine all'attività di impresa e reporting. Al giorno d'oggi il costo marginale del debito e il valore di mercato del capitale azionario sono concetti consolidati nella pratica contabile e possono essere estesi a imprese private. Il costo del capitale per queste ultime deriva dall'uso del coefficiente di correlazione degli utili d'impresa su quelli di mercato (coefficiente beta) di difficile stima per aziende private, sebbene questo possa essere ricavato in più di un modo, implementando ipotesi che sono proprie del contesto dove l'impresa e i suoi concorrenti operano. Abbiamo riassunto i modelli emergenti dal modo come queste metodologie vengano correntemente impiegate dalle imprese americane, realizzando che i sentimenti connessi all'adattamento dell'interpretazione FIN 46/R alle caratteristiche proprie dell'impresa siano di timore e incertezza dati da una notevole difficoltà di applicazione compresa quella di estrapolare un sufficiente grado di rilevanza ai fini del valore dai propri eventi contabili. La situazione é prodroma di processo ancora lontano dalla cristallizzazione. In particolare FASB non impone una chiara conversione dei valori contabili in fair value oppure in value in use. Nemmeno sono esclusi metodi alternativi di valutazione a quelli menzionati di sopra se non fosse per alcuni aspetti trattati dall'FSP 46/R-S nell'esercizio di determinare la variabilità attesa degli utili che dobbiamo riconoscere non è stata propria della contabilità fino a poco tempo fa. Per entrare in dettaglio nel processo applicativo di identificazione di una VIE questa tesi propone un algoritmo che entra in dettaglio nell'applicazione del FIN 46/R da parte di un'impresa e tiene in considerazione tutte le possibili interrelazioni tra portatori di interessi nella VIE e/o solamente in specifici asset della stessa. L'algorimo pone in luce le debolezze sul piano applicativo causate da possibili interrelazioni tra la stima delle perdite attese e interessi in asset specifici, laddove il fair value di questi sia superiore al 50% del capitale investito netto. L'algoritmo, nonostante sia in accordo con le prescrizioni dettate dal FIN 46/R, essendo di tipo causa-effetto non affronta situazioni di cross-default di parti correlate con investimenti nella stessa VIE. Benchè l'applicazione di un modello causa-effetto non sia sempre possibile, pensiamo che un aumento dei vincoli che portano al consolidamento riduca ampiamente queste possibilità di difficile modellizzazione. Nel processo per la determinazione se l'impresa sia o meno una VIE, FASB sviluppa un test 'at-risk' che contiene a nostro avviso alcuni passi nella propria trattazione di relativa debolezza quali 'precedente abilita a finanziare le attività senza supporto finanziario subordinato' e ' confrontabilità con simili entità che autonomamente si finanziano senza supporto finanziario subordinato'. Crediamo che questo test 'at-risk' dovrebbe essere solamente un test di tipo numerico per appianare qualsiasi fonte di erronea interpretazione ed incrementarne quindi la rilevanza e consistenza. L'introduzione di FASB di una condizione sufficiente da applicare ad una entità per la sua esclusione dalla categoria delle VIE lascia a nostro avviso alcune incertezze nell'interpretazione del concetto di 'partecipazione nella definizione della VIE' o in quella di 'interesse trascurabile'. Questo test crediamo non debba essere trattato come un fattore determinante; la polarizzazione tra rischio e rendimento invece crediamo debba essere il fattore primario per l'esclusione o meno. Per quanto riguarda le condizioni in uso per determinare se l'entità ha sufficiente capitale per sostenere le proprie attività senza sostegno finanziario, conditio sine qua non del 10% di equity sul capitale investito netto, accoppiata ad una triade di metodi valutativi sempre proposti da FASB, pensiamo avesse dovuto essere maggiormente concisa e vincolante nelle sue pronunciazioni. Infatti siamo dell'opinione che questi metodi lascino troppa flessibilità interpretativa circa l'uso delle ipotesi concesse per dimostrare la sufficienza del capitale investito. Questi temi sono stati trattati dal punto di vista operativo con una serie di esempi creati ad hoc per illustrare i passi più significativi, dal punto di vista finanziario, nell'applicazione del VIE model e sollevare potenziali criticità proponendone una loro soluzione. Infine, questa tesi confronta come le responsabilità e gli sforzi nell'affrontare le disposizioni del FIN 46/R siano distribuite tra gli stakeholders di una VIE, cioè imprese che redigono il bilancio, parti correlate, revisori, standard setters ed enti di controllo. Abbiamo messo in evidenza come l'implementazione del FIN 46/R spinga naturalmente ad una sovrastima della variabilità stimata degli utili, innalzando i requisiti di capitalizzazione in accordo con questo modello di rischio/rendimento. Questo a svantaggio di beneficiari primari di modeste capitalizzazioni, che dovranno affrontare sia il rischio di essere acquisiti che quello di un maggiore ricorso al debito. Le classi più avvantaggiate saranno invece il settore del credito, seppure lo stesso sarà portato internamente verso il consolidamento. ; XXI Ciclo ; 1972
L'attività di ricerca nell'ambito del Dottorato di ricerca "Persone, imprese e lavoro: dal diritto interno a quello internazionale" ha consentito di studiare ed approfondire una tematica nuova del diritto internazionale, ossia "La responsabilità delle imprese multinazionali per crimini internazionali". Il progetto di ricerca è stato strutturato su tre parti dedicate rispettivamente alla soggettività giuridica delle imprese multinazionali, ai diversi profili di responsabilità che possono essere riferiti alle imprese multinazionali e, infine, alla responsabilità penale che può essere loro contestata. Per quanto riguarda il primo capitolo, "L'impresa multinazionale come realtà multiforme", l'analisi si è concentrata principalmente sulla nozione di impresa multinazionale e sul relativo problema dell'ammissibilità della personalità giuridica di diritto internazionale delle imprese multinazionale. Il profilo definitorio è stato oggetto di un iter argomentativo che si è mosso lungo l'analisi delle fonti di diritto internazionale e il modus operandi delle imprese multinazionali. Alla luce di ciò, l'indagine definitoria si è conclusa propendendo per una nozione di impresa multinazionale che va specificata in concreto attraverso i suoi elementi costitutivi. In definitiva, l'impresa multinazionale è un'organizzazione che esercita la sua attività produttiva in Paesi diversi da quello di origine avvalendosi di aziende affiliate, che, seppure sono qualificate come satelliti delle imprese multinazionali, sono dotate di personalità giuridica e di autonomia giuridica. Risolto il problema definitorio, l'indagine si è concentrata su una problematica complessa, che ha sollecitato l'intervento della dottrina più autorevole. Al di là del dibattito dottrinario che ne è scaturito, attualmente si potrebbe propendere per la personalità giuridica delle imprese multinazionali. Il riconoscimento che ne è derivato è stato determinato da una serie di "criteri sintomatici". Valga a titolo esemplificativo il riferimento alla loro partecipazione nei procedimenti giurisdizionali ed arbitrali al fine di garantire i diritti riconosciuti (esempio significativo si può indicare nell'istituzione dell'Iran-United States Claims Tribunal risalente al 1981, che è stato oggetto del Rapporto dell'Alto Commissario per i diritti umani delle Nazioni Unite, ove è stato dichiarata in modo esplicito la colpevolezza dell'impresa multinazionale che si mostra tollerante ovvero ignora i fatti criminali riservati ai diritti umani.). Il primo capitolo è introduttivo del secondo capitolo dal titolo "La disciplina giuridica internazionale dell'attività delle imprese multinazionali". La seconda parte della tesi ha avuto ad oggetto un ambito di indagine piuttosto esteso, che non è stato di difficile inquadramento in quanto le problematiche sottese hanno trovato adeguate risposte attraverso l'intervento dottrinario, ma soprattutto attraverso l'intervento della giurisprudenza e l'operato del legislatore. L'attività delle imprese multinazionali si lega inesorabilmente con la tematica della responsabilità sociale delle imprese multinazionali (indicato con l'acronimo inglese CSR, Corporate Social Responsability). Gli unici strumenti in grado di fornire un'adeguata risposta sanzionatoria alle condotte delle imprese multinazionali si possono rinvenire nei Codici di Condotta, anche detti codici etici. Gli esempi più rilevanti di Codici di Condotta, che sono stati oggetto di una puntuale analisi, sono da riscontrare nella Dichiarazione Tripartita dell'OIL sulle imprese multinazionali e la politica sociale (1977/2000/2006), nelle Guidelines dell'OCSE destinate alle imprese multinazionali (2000/2011) e nel Global Compact delle Nazioni Unite (2000/2010). Per ragioni di completezza sistematica, il secondo capitolo ha tenuto conto anche dei c.d. Codici di Condotta privati, quali documenti volontariamente sottoscritti dalle imprese multinazionali raggruppanti norme e principi non vincolanti tesi a disciplinare la condotta sul mercato delle stesse imprese. Resta da prendere in esame la parte centrale della tesi che si incentra sulla responsabilità internazionale delle imprese multinazionali per i crimini internazionali. Il terzo, il quarto e il quinto capitolo sono il cuore della tesi di dottorato, che si riferiscono ad un ambito del diritto internazionale inesplorato e su cui si concentrano le numerose perplessità della dottrina nazionale ed internazionale. L'attività di ricerca ha seguito un determinato filo d'indagine tenendo anche conto che il progetto di ricerca si inserisce nel ciclo di dottorato dal Titolo "Persone, imprese e lavoro: dal diritto interno al diritto internazionale". In altri termini, l'indagine ha tenuto conto della penale responsabilità delle imprese multinazionali partendo dalla normativa interna dell'ordinamento italiano, che com'è noto è segnata dal d.lgs. n. 231 del 2001. Al di là della scelta strutturale che segna il terzo, il quarto e il quinto capitolo, è bene precisare che la responsabilità penale delle imprese multinazionali è stata definita dal presunto ambito operativo. Difatti, l'indagine si è concentrata principalmente sull'ammissibilità della responsabilità penale delle imprese multinazionali per i crimini internazionali, sugli elementi tipizzanti il fatto illecito e sul relativo disvalore penale. E' bene precisare che i crimini internazionali sono, generalmente, di esclusiva competenza della Corte penale internazionale, salva l'applicazione del noto principio della giurisdizione penale universale. In tal modo si garantisce l'intervento giurisdizionale anche dei Tribunali interni, che possono sindacare la illiceità della condotta offensiva. In astratto, non vi sarebbero ostacoli a riconoscere la responsabilità penale delle imprese multinazionali per i crimini internazionali. Ma, in concreto, le perplessità persistono. Il primo problema che è stato affrontato attiene alla copertura normativa. L'analisi ha consentito di comporre un adeguato sostrato normativo, partendo dalla bozza dello Statuto della Corte penale internazionale e da autorevole dottrina e completando con il rapporto del 2013 del Segretario Generale delle Nazioni Unite. Quindi, il problema attinente alla copertura normativa è stato risolto, ma ciò che ha destato immediate difficoltà è stata l'individuazione degli elementi costitutivi della responsabilità penale delle imprese multinazionali e, di conseguenza, l'imputazione diretta della violazione dei diritti umani. La responsabilità delle imprese multinazionali per crimini internazionali, attualmente, si può risolvere in un duplice modo: 1. non intervenire con lo strumento sanzionatorio, ma ciò vorrebbe dire lasciare impunite le condotte delle imprese multinazionali; 2. riferire la condotta delle imprese multinazionali allo Stato ospite. In questo secondo caso, sono ben note le conseguenza che derivano, basti considerare che l'illecito internazionale materialmente lesivo dei diritti degli individui è subordinato alla giurisdizione dello Stato che ne è autore. Invece, per quanto concerne il primo profilo si corre il rischio di fare andare impunite le condotte delle imprese multinazionali violando indirettamente il principio di legalità e direttamente i principi sottesi alla comunità internazionale. In altri termini, se il sistema di diritto internazionale non aziona gli strumenti previsti dalla normativa sopra esaminata a tutela dei diritti umani si può determinare una doppia violazione a danno di quest'ultimi. Di conseguenza, l'esigenza di attivare strumenti idonei previsti dall'ordinamento internazionale ha fatto sì che si possa utilizzare uno strumento idoneo a riscontrare la diretta imputabilità delle imprese multinazionali, ossia l'interpretazione estensiva . E' noto che il sistema penale ripudia l'analogia, ma allo stesso tempo consente l'interpretazione estensiva . Avvalendosi dell'interpretazione estensiva l'interprete può adoperare gli strumenti che sono contenuti nel Progetto 2001, ove si tiene conto della responsabilità dello Stato. Di conseguenza, anche per le imprese multinazionali sarà possibile riscontrare, a seguito dell'interpretazione estensiva, la sussistenza degli elementi costitutivi del fatto illecito. Pertanto, si configura anche in capo alle imprese multinazionali l'elemento oggettivo della violazione delle norme internazionali e l'elemento soggettivo attinente alla diretta imputazione del comportamento antigiuridico. In tal modo entrambi gli elementi sono riconducibili direttamente alla condotta delle imprese multinazionali, che, come più volte chiarito, può essere intesa come una condotta attiva ovvero una condotta omissiva. In altri termini, la condotta può essere attiva quando le imprese violano direttamente per un profitto proprio le disposizioni di legge a tutela dei diritti umani determinando effetti incidenti sugli individui, che sono collocati stabilmente nell'area ove operano le imprese multinazionali; invece, la condotta è omissiva, quando le imprese multinazionali omettono di adottare le misure di prevenzione (che potrebbero corrispondere ai c.d. compliance programs) finalizzate a ridurre o eliminare le conseguenze offensive derivanti dalla loro condotta a danno dei diritti umani. In definitiva, accertato che l'attività delle imprese multinazionali è coperta normativamente da atti delle organizzazioni internazionali e ritenuta ammissibile l'interpretazione estensiva degli elementi essenziali costitutivi del fatto illecito dello Stato, le imprese multinazionali possono essere responsabili per i crimini internazionali. In conclusione, la soluzione positiva offerta è stata frutto di una ricostruzione che ha preso le mosse principalmente dagli esempi degli ordinamenti nazionali e ha trovato la sua ratio nella bozza dello Statuto della Corte penale internazionale, ma nonostante ciò la scelta incriminatrice non vuole essere esaustiva di una tematica che dispone di un notevole ambito operativo e che è risultata essere connessa con diversi fattori (economici, politi e sociali) non sempre di facile comprensione. ; The research activities within the framework of the PhD "People, businesses or jobs: domestic law to the international" made it possible to study and discuss a new subject of international law, i.e. "the responsibility of transnational corporations for international crimes". The research project has been structured on three sections devoted respectively to legal subjectivity of various MNEs liability profiles that may be related to transnational corporations and, finally, the criminal liability that may be disputed. As regards the first chapter, "The multinational enterprise as a multiform reality", the analysis focused primarily on the notion of multinational enterprise and its problem of eligibility of legal personality under international law of multinational enterprises. The Definitory profile has been the subject of an argumentative process that moved along the analysis of sources of international law and the modus operandi of the multinational companies. In light of this, the survey definition ended inclinations for a notion of multinational enterprise must be specified in concrete terms through its constituent elements. Ultimately, the multinational firm is an organization that carries on his production activity in countries other than the country of origin through affiliated companies, which, although they are classified as satellites of multinational companies, have legal personality and legal autonomy. Fixed issue Definitory, the investigation has focused on a complex issue, which has prompted the intervention of the most authoritative doctrine. On the other side of the debate that has been doctrinaire, currently you might lean towards the legal personality of multinational enterprises. The recognition that resulted was determined by a series of "symptomatic criteria". It is not limited to the reference to their participation in court proceedings and arbitral tribunals to ensure that the statutory rights (example you can indicate in the establishment of the Iran-United States Claims Tribunal dating from 1981, which was the subject of the report of the High Commissioner for human rights of the United Nations, where it has been explicitly declared guilty of multinational enterprise that is tolerant or ignores the facts private human rights criminals.). The first chapter is an introduction to the second chapter entitled "international legal regulation of the activities of transnational corporations". The second part of the thesis had such a scope object of investigation rather extended, which was not difficult to monitor because the underlying problems have found adequate responses through a doctrinaire, but especially through the intervention of the law and the work of the legislature. The activity of multinational enterprises is bound inexorably with the issue of social responsibility of multinational companies (referred to by the acronym CSR, Corporate Social responsibility). The only instruments capable of providing an adequate response to the conduct of disciplinary multinational enterprises can be found in the codes of conduct, also called ethical codes. The most important examples of codes of conduct, which were the subject of a detailed analysis, are to be found in the ILO Tripartite Declaration on multinational enterprises and social policy (1977/2000/2006), in the OECD Guidelines for multinational enterprises (2000-2011) and the United Nations Global Compact (2000/2010). For the sake of completeness, the second chapter systematically took account also of the so-called private codes of conduct, which documents voluntarily undertaken by transnational corporations involving non-binding standards and principles designed to govern the conduct of business on the market. It remains to consider the central part of the thesis that focuses on international responsibility of transnational corporations for international crimes. The third, fourth and fifth chapter are at the heart of the doctoral thesis, which refer to an international law which is unexplored and concentrate the many concerns of national and international doctrine. The research activity has been following a certain thread of investigation taking into account also that the research project is part of the doctoral cycle entitled "People, businesses or jobs: domestic law with international law". In other words, the survey took account of the responsibility of the criminal multinationals from the internal legislation of the Italian law, which as you know is marked by d.lgs. No. 231 of 2001. Beyond the structural choice that marks the third, fourth and fifth chapter, it is good to point out that the criminal responsibility of transnational corporations was allegedly operating scope defined. Indeed, the investigation has focused primarily on the admissibility of criminal liability of multinational corporations to international crimes, on particular toxins the tort and criminal disvalue. It is good to point out that international crimes are, generally, the exclusive jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, without prejudice to the application of the principle of universal criminal jurisdiction. This ensures the jurisdiction of domestic Courts, which can review the unlawfulness of conduct offensive. In principle, there would be obstacles to recognise the criminal liability of multinational corporations to international crimes. But, in practice, the concerns persist. The first problem that has been addressed as far as the regulatory coverage. The analysis made it possible to compose an appropriate regulatory milieu, starting with the draft statute of the International Criminal Court and by authoritative doctrine and completing with the 2013 report of the Secretary-General of the United Nations. Then, the problem pertaining to legislation coverage is resolved, but what aroused immediate fix was the identification of the constituent elements of criminal responsibility of transnational corporations and, consequently, on charges of human rights violations. The responsibility of transnational corporations for international crimes, currently, you can resolve in a twofold way: 1. do not use the instrument of sanctions, but that would mean leaving unpunished the conduct of multinational enterprises; 2. report the conduct of transnational corporations to the host State. In this second case, are well known the consequence arising, suffice it to note that the international offence materially detrimental to the rights of individuals shall be subject to the jurisdiction of the State which is the author. On the other hand, as regards the first profile you run the risk of making go unpunished the conduct of multinational companies indirectly violating the principle of legality and the principles governing the international community. In other words, if the international law system propels the tools foreseen by examined above legislation protecting human rights can determine a double violation to the detriment of the latter. As a result, the need to activate suitable instruments under international law meant that we could use a suitable tool to experience the direct eligibility of multinational enterprises, i.e. the interpretation. It is known that the penal system rejects the analogy, but at the same time allows for broad interpretation. Using the interpretation the interpreter can use tools that are contained in the 2001 Draft, which takes into account the responsibility of the State. As a result, even for multinational enterprises will encounter as a result of the interpretation, the existence of the constituent elements of the tort. Therefore, it also configures in Chief for multinational enterprises the objective element of the violation of international standards and the subjective element relating to objectionable material behavior directly attributable. Thus both elements can be traced back directly to the conduct of multinational enterprises, which, as repeatedly explained, can be understood as active behaviour or conduct of omission. In other words, the conduct can be activated when companies violate directly for a profit its legal provisions for the protection of human rights, causing accident effects on individuals, who are placed firmly in the area where multinational enterprises operate; Instead, the conduct is of omission, when multinational companies fail to adopt prevention measures (which might correspond to so-called compliance programs) designed to reduce or eliminate offensive consequences resulting from their conduct to the detriment of human rights. Ultimately, ensured that the activity of multinational enterprises is covered by law from international organizations and acts deemed eligible for the interpretation of the essential elements constituting the tort State, multinational companies may be responsible for international crimes. In conclusion, the positive outcome was the result of a reconstruction that took the moves primarily by examples of national laws and found its ratio in the draft statute of the International Criminal Court, but nevertheless the choice event is not intended to be exhaustive of a subject that has significant operational and scope that was found to be connected with various factors (economicpolitical and social), not always easy to understand. ; Dottorato di ricerca in Persona, impresa e lavoro: dal diritto interno a quello internazionale (XXVI ciclo)
L'applicazione del principio di avidità in un mondo caratterizzato da incertezza, quale di fatto è quello su cui vengono scambiati i prodotti finanziari, implica la necessità che alla considerazione del possibile rendimento futuro di qualsivoglia portafoglio finanziario debba essere associata la considerazione del rischio finanziario concernente la variabilità del futuro valore del medesimo. All'interno delle diverse tipologie di rischio che concorrono alla formazione del rischio finanziario di un portafoglio, quelle sulle quali si è maggiormente incentrato l'interesse degli studiosi e degli operatori, anche in adempimento a precise normative legislative relative alle attività di vigilanza degli intermediari finanziari, sono costituite dal rischio di mercato e dal rischio di credito. Mentre il rischio di mercato si associa al rischio di prezzo di un dato portafoglio, incentrando così l'analisi sulle possibili fluttuazioni delle variabili di mercato rilevanti, il rischio di credito (credit risk) considera l'eventualità che il valore di un portafoglio sia influenzato dalla situazione finanziaria dei soggetti in esso coinvolti. La quarta fonte di rischio è il rischio internazionale (international risk). Un'impresa si trova a dover fronteggiare questo tipo di rischio quando la valuta nella quale sono misurati gli utili ed è espresso il prezzo del titolo azionario è diversa dalla valuta dei flussi di cassa del progetto, come accade nel caso di progetti intrapresi al di fuori del mercato nazionale. La principale innovazione introdotta da Markowitz nella misurazione del rischio di un portafoglio consiste nella considerazione della distribuzione congiunta dei rendimenti di tutti i titoli in esso presenti. Il modello media varianza, sebbene sia tuttora largamente utilizzato nella pratica, presenta limiti intrinseci dovuti alla considerazione esclusiva dei primi due momenti della distribuzione dei rendimenti. In primo luogo, deve tenere in debito conto la dispersione dei rendimenti effettivi attorno al rendimento atteso, misurata dalla varianza (o dallo scarto quadratico medio) della distribuzione; maggiore è la differenza fra rendimenti effettivi e rendimento atteso, maggiore è la varianza. 2.2.2. Rendimento e rischio: la frontiera efficiente Supponiamo che un investitore abbia delle stime dei rendimenti attesi, degli scarti quadratici medi dei singoli titoli e delle correlazioni tra i titoli. Nella scelta della migliore combinazione di titoli da detenere, un investitore cercherà ovviamente un portafoglio con un rendimento atteso elevato e un basso scarto quadratico medio dei rendimenti. Pertanto è opportuno considerare: la relazione tra il rendimento atteso dei singoli titoli e il rendimento atteso di un portafoglio composto da questi titoli; la relazione tra gli scarti quadratici medi dei singoli titoli, le correlazioni tra questi titoli e lo scarto quadratico medio di un portafoglio composto dagli stessi. Consideriamo un portafoglio composto da due titoli. Il titolo A ha un rendimento atteso di µA e una varianza dei rendimenti di σ2A, mentre il titolo B ha un rendimento atteso di µB e una varianza dei rendimenti di σ2B . Il rendimento atteso e la varianza di un portafoglio di due titoli può essere scritta come funzione di questi input e del peso che questi hanno sul valore del portafoglio. Dove e rappresentano la quota del titolo A e del titolo B nell'intero portafoglio. L'eliminazione di parte del rischio è possibile perché di solito i rendimenti dei singoli titoli non sono perfettamente correlati tra loro; pertanto parte del rischio viene "eliminata grazie alla diversificazione". Concettualmente, il rischio di un singolo titolo dipende da come il rischio di un portafoglio cambia quando quel titolo viene aggiunto. Come avremo modo di evidenziare in seguito, il Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) mostra che il rischio di un singolo titolo è rappresentato dal suo coefficiente beta che, in termini statistici, indica la tendenza di un titolo azionario a variare nella stessa direzione del mercato (per esempio, l'indice composito S&P): il beta misura la reattività del rendimento di un singolo titolo rispetto al rendimento del portafoglio di mercato. In generale, il numero dei termini di covarianza può essere scritto come una funzione del numero dei titoli. dove n è il numero dei titoli presenti nel portafoglio. Per motivi di semplicità, assumiamo che i titoli abbiano in media una deviazione standard dei rendimenti di , che la covarianza dei rendimenti tra coppie di titoli sia in media e che i tutti i titoli siano presenti nel portafoglio nella stessa proporzione: Il fatto che la varianza possa essere stimata per portafogli composti da un ampio numero di titoli suggerisce un approccio di ottimizzazione nella costruzione del portafoglio, nel quale gli investitori contrappongono rendimento atteso e varianza. Se un investitore può specificare l'ammontare massimo di rischio che è disposto a sopportare (in termini di varianza), il problema dell'ottimizzazione del portafoglio diventa la massimizzazione dei rendimenti attesi dato questo livello di rischio. Graficamente, questi portafogli possono essere rappresentati sulla base delle dimensioni del rendimento atteso e della deviazione standard come nella figura sottostante. Per passare dall'approccio tradizionale di Markowitz a quello del Capital Asset Pricing Model, dobbiamo considerare l'aggiunta di un titolo privo di rischio all'interno del mix dei titoli rischiosi. Il titolo privo di rischio, per definizione, ha un rendimento atteso che risulta sempre uguale al rendimento attuale. Mentre il rendimento dei titoli rischiosi varia, l'assenza di varianza nei rendimenti dei titoli privi di rischio li rende non correlati con i rendimenti dei titoli rischiosi. Per esaminare ciò che accade alla varianza di un portafoglio che combina un titolo privo di rischio con un portafoglio rischioso, assumiamo che la varianza del portafoglio rischioso sia e che sia la quota dell'intero portafoglio investita in questi titoli rischiosi. Il rendimento atteso cresce data la pendenza positiva della retta passante per il livello del tasso privo di rischio. Detta retta prende il nome di Linea del mercato dei capitali o Capital Market Line (CML). Piuttosto, combinerà i titoli di M con l'attività priva di rischio nel caso in cui abbia un'alta avversione al rischio. In un mondo in cui gli investitori tengono una combinazione di due soli titoli (titolo privo di rischio e portafoglio rischioso) il rischio di ogni titolo individuale verrà misurato in base al portafoglio di mercato. In particolare, il rischio di ogni asset diverrà il rischio aggiunto al portafoglio di mercato. Per giungere all'appropriata misurazione di questo rischio aggiunto assumiamo che sia la varianza del portafoglio di mercato prima dell'aggiunta del nuovo titolo, e la varianza del titolo individuale che verrà aggiunto a questo portafoglio sia . Il peso del titolo sul valore di mercato del portafoglio è e la covarianza dei rendimenti tra il titolo individuale e il portafoglio di mercato è . Conseguentemente, il primo termine dell'equazione dovrebbe essere prossimo a zero, e il secondo termine dovrebbe tendere a , lasciando così il terzo termine ( , la covarianza) come misura del rischio aggiunto dal titolo i. Dividendo questo termine per la varianza dei rendimenti del portafoglio di mercato si determina il beta del titolo: Beta del titolo = 2.2.3. Un esempio di diversificazione Supponiamo di fare le seguenti tre ipotesi : 1. tutti i titoli hanno la stessa varianza, che indichiamo con . Il rischio di portafoglio ( ), è il rischio corso anche dopo aver raggiunto la completa diversificazione. Il rischio di portafoglio è spesso chiamato anche rischio sistematico o rischio di mercato. Nel modello base si stabilisce una relazione tra il rendimento di un titolo e la sua rischiosità, misurata tramite un unico fattore di rischio, detto beta. Il beta misura quanto il valore del titolo si muova in sintonia col mercato. Matematicamente, il beta è proporzionale alla covarianza tra rendimento del titolo e andamento del mercato; tale relazione è comunemente sintetizzata tramite la Security Market Line (SML) , illustrata nel grafico sottostante. Figura 3.1. La Security Market Line: relazione tra rischio (beta) e rendimento atteso nel CAPM La SML, solitamente chiamata linea di "mercato degli investimenti", presenta come intercetta il tasso privo di rischio e come pendenza la differenza tra il rendimento del mercato e quello privo di rischio: la retta è positivamente inclinata se il rendimento atteso del mercato è maggiore del tasso privo di rischio ( È facile dimostrare che la linea della Figura 5 è retta. Questo aggiustamento dei prezzi farebbe aumentare i rendimenti attesi dei due titoli e continuerebbe finché i due titoli non si trovassero sulla linea di mercato degli investimenti. La linea del mercato rappresenta la frontiera dei portafogli efficienti formati sia da attività rischiose che dall'attività priva di rischio; ogni punto sulla retta rappresenta un intero portafoglio. Il portafoglio composto da ogni attività trattata sul mercato viene chiamato portafoglio di mercato (market portfolio). Seguendo tale impostazione ogni investitore sceglierà lo stesso identico portafoglio, cioè il portafoglio di mercato, quindi la diversa propensione al rischio di ciascun investitore nelle scelte di investimento emerge nella decisione di allocazione, vale a dire nella decisione di quanto investire nel titolo privo di rischio e quanto nel portafoglio di mercato. Investitori più avversi al rischio sceglieranno di investire gran parte o la totalità del proprio patrimonio nel titolo privo di rischio, mentre investitori meno avversi al rischio investiranno principalmente o esclusivamente nel portafoglio di mercato. Anzi, potranno investire nel portafoglio di mercato non solo tutto il loro patrimonio, ma anche fondi presi a prestito al tasso privo di rischio. La prima è che esista un titolo privo di rischio, ovvero un titolo il cui rendimento atteso sia certo. La seconda è che gli investitori, per ottenere la combinazione ottimale fra titolo privo di rischio e portafoglio di mercato (data la propria propensione al rischio), possano dare e prendere in prestito fondi al tasso privo di rischio. Come già ricordato in precedenza il rischio di ciascuna attività per un investitore corrisponde al rischio aggiunto da quell'attività al suo portafoglio. Nel contesto del CAPM, dove tutti gli investitori scelgono di detenere il portafoglio di mercato, il rischio di una singola attività per un investitore corrisponde al rischio che quest'attività aggiunge al portafoglio di mercato. Statisticamente, questo rischio addizionale è misurato dalla covarianza dell'attività con il portafoglio di mercato. Maggiore è la correlazione fra l'andamento di un'attività e l'andamento del portafoglio di mercato, maggiore è il rischio aggiunto da tale attività ( i movimenti non correlati all'andamento del portafoglio di mercato vengono invece eliminati quando si aggiunge un'attività al portafoglio). Possiamo tuttavia standardizzare la misura del rischio dividendo la covarianza di ciascuna attività con il portafoglio di mercato per la varianza del portafoglio di mercato. Otteniamo in questo modo il cosiddetto beta di un'attività: Dato che la covarianza del portafoglio di mercato con se stesso non è altro che la varianza del portafoglio di mercato, il beta del portafoglio di mercato (e quindi il beta di una ipotetica attività media) è 1. Quindi le attività più (meno) rischiose della media saranno quelle con un beta superiore (inferiore) ad 1. Il titolo privo di rischio avrà ovviamente un beta pari a zero. Il fatto che ciascun investitore possieda una combinazione del titolo privo di rischio e del portafoglio di mercato ha un'importante implicazione: il rendimento atteso di un'attività è strettamente correlato al suo beta. In particolare, il rendimento atteso di un'attività sarà una funzione dal tasso di rendimento del titolo privo di rischio e del beta dell'attività. Il nucleo del CAPM è una relazione attesa tra il rendimento di un qualsiasi titolo ( ) e il rendimento del portafoglio di mercato, che può essere espressa come: dove sono il rendimento lordo del titolo in questione e del portafoglio di mercato e è il rendimento lordo privo di rischio. Secondo questa formula il rendimento atteso di un'attività rischiosa è dato dal rendimento di un titolo privo di rischio maggiorato di un premio per il rischio, che sarà più o meno elevato a seconda del rischio aggiunto dall'attività al portafoglio di mercato. È chiaro quindi che per usare il CAPM sono necessari i seguenti tre input: Tasso di rendimento del titolo privo di rischio. Per titolo privo di rischio si intende il titolo il cui rendimento atteso nel periodo di riferimento sia noto all'investitore con certezza. Di conseguenza, il tasso di rendimento di un titolo privo di rischio da utilizzare nel CAPM varierà a seconda che il periodo di riferimento sia 1, 5 o 10 anni. • Premio per il rischio. Il premio per il rischio indica la remunerazione richiesta dai risparmiatori per investire nel portafoglio di mercato (che comprende tutte le attività rischiose) piuttosto che nel titolo privo di rischio. Il beta è l'unico input specifico del titolo analizzato (ad es. un'azione). Per esempio, abbiamo ipotizzato che investire nei Buoni del Tesoro sia completamente senza rischio. (Nel CAPM, tali portafogli sono i Buoni del Tesoro e il portafoglio di mercato.) Nei CAPM modificati i rendimenti attesi dipendono ancora dal rischio sistematico, ma la definizione di rischio sistematico dipende dalla natura del portafoglio di riferimento. Il CAPM ipotizza che un investitore richieda un rendimento atteso più elevato per un rischio maggiore, e non ammette che un investitore accetti un rendimento minore, o un rischio maggiore, ceteris paribus. L'ipotesi cruciale nella derivazione proposta sopra è che le preferenze degli investitori siano formulate esclusivamente in termini di media e varianza dei rendimenti dei titoli; l'ipotesi di normalità dei rendimenti (lognormalità dei prezzi) è una condizione sufficiente, ma non necessaria, affinché ciò sia verificato. Il CAPM ipotizza che il profilo rischio-rendimento atteso di un portafoglio possa essere ottimizzato, determinando un portafoglio ottimo, che presenti il minimo livello di rischio possibile per il proprio rendimento atteso. Nel secondo passo, si utilizzano le stime come osservazioni dei regressori nei modelli di regressione lineare, nella dimensione cross-section: Il CAPM risulterà non rifiutato se, sulla base della regressione sopra, il coefficiente a sarà pari al tasso d'interesse privo di rischio , e se il coefficiente b sarà pari al premio per il rischio del portafoglio di mercato. Usando dati dagli anni trenta agli anni sessanta, alcuni ricercatori dimostrarono che il rendimento medio di un portafoglio di azioni è una funzione crescente del beta del portafoglio , una scoperta coerente con il CAPM. In sostanza, qualunque test del CAPM sarebbe per Roll riconducibile all'ipotesi che il portafoglio di mercato, il cui rendimento è indicato da sopra, appartenga alla porzione efficiente della frontiera dei portafogli. Un test del CAPM si tradurrebbe di fatto in un test sull'appartenenza alla frontiera efficiente della particolare proxy del portafoglio di mercato utilizzata. La popolarità del CAPM è essenzialmente legata alla sua semplicità, nonché alla capacità di ricondurre il valore di un titolo a un singolo fattore di rischio, rappresentato dal rischio legato al portafoglio di mercato. Dunque, un investitore può creare un portafoglio abbastanza simile al portafoglio di mercato del CAPM combinando vari fondi indicizzati, ciascuno in proporzione al valore di mercato del mercato cui l'indice fa riferimento. Così, in questo periodo di 60 anni, i rendimenti sono davvero aumentati all'aumentare del beta. Come risulta dalla Figura 3.2, il portafoglio di mercato negli stessi 60 anni ha fornito un rendimento medio di 14 punti percentuali sopra il tasso risk-free e , è ovvio, ha avuto un beta pari a 1. Il CAPM sostiene che il premio per il rischio dovrebbe aumentare in proporzione al beta, in modo che i rendimenti di ciascun portafoglio si collochino sulla linea del mercato azionario inclinata positivamente delle Figure 3.4 e 3.5. Figura 3.4. Premio per il rischio e beta dei dieci investimenti nel periodo 1931-1965 Figura 3.5. Premio per il rischio e beta dei dieci investimenti nel periodo 1966-1991 Poiché il mercato ha fornito un premio per il rischio del 14%, il portafoglio dell'investitore 1, con un beta di 0,49, dovrebbe avere fornito un premio per il rischio leggermente inferiore al 7% e il portafoglio dell'investitore 10, con un beta di 1,52, dovrebbe avere fornito un premio leggermente superiore al 21%. Sia l'APT che il CAPM implicano una relazione crescente tra rendimento atteso e rischio. Inoltre l'APT considera il rischio in maniera più generale rispetto alla semplice covarianza standardizzata o al beta di un titolo con il portafoglio di mercato. Come il CAPM, anche l'Arbitrage Pricing Model scompone il rischio in rischio specifico d'impresa e rischio-mercato. In primo luogo, il rendimento normale o atteso del titolo, cioè la parte del rendimento che gli azionisti sul mercato prevedono o si aspettano. La seconda parte è il rendimento incerto o rischioso del titolo. Nella misura in cui gli azionisti avevano previsto l'annuncio del governo, tale previsione dovrebbe essere incorporata nella parte attesa del rendimento calcolato all'inizio del mese, cioè in . D'altro canto, se l'annuncio del governo è una sorpresa, nella misura in cui influenza il rendimento del titolo azionario farà parte di U, la parte non anticipata del rendimento. La parte non anticipata del rendimento, quella che deriva dalle sorprese, costituisce il vero rischio di ogni investimento. In termini statistici, 4.2. Le fonti del rischio-mercato Il fatto che le componenti non sistematiche dei rendimenti di due società non siano correlate tra loro non implica che anche le componenti sistematiche siano incorrelate. Nonostante il CAPM e l'APM facciano entrambi una distinzione fra rischio specifico d'impresa e rischio-mercato, essi si differenziano poi nell'approccio alla misurazione del rischio-mercato. Il coefficiente beta, β, indica la reazione del rendimento di un titolo azionario a un tipo di rischio sistematico. Nel CAPM il beta misurava la variazione del rendimento di un titolo a uno specifico fattore di rischio, il rendimento del portafoglio di mercato. Viene utilizzato questo termine perché l'indice impiegato come fattore è un indice dei rendimenti dell'intero mercato (azionario). Il modello di mercato può essere quindi espresso come M) + ε dove rappresenta il rendimento del portafoglio di mercato e β è detto coefficiente beta. Considerando Xi la proporzione del titolo i nel portafoglio, sappiamo che la loro somma deve essere pari a 1 e che il rendimento del portafoglio è la media ponderata dei rendimenti delle singole attività nel portafoglio Nel paragrafo precedente abbiamo visto che il rendimento di ciascuna attività è a sua volta determinato sia dal fattore F che dal rischio non sistematico rappresentato da . La prima riga è la media ponderata dei rendimenti attesi dei singoli titoli. Il rendimento di un portafoglio può essere rappresentato come la somma di due medie ponderate: la media ponderata dei rendimenti attesi delle attività nel portafoglio e al media ponderata dei beta associati a ciascun fattore. La componente dei rendimenti specifica della singola impresa (ε) scompare a livello di portafoglio per effetto della diversificazione. Se assumiamo infatti che il portafoglio sia composto da molti titoli tutti presenti nella medesima proporzione , possiamo notare che al crescere del numero dei titoli compresi nel portafoglio la componente del rischio idiosincratico si annulla: Per ogni singola azione ci sono due fonti di rischio. Il premio atteso per il rischio di un'azione dipende dai fattori macroeconomici di rischio e non è influenzato dal rischio specifico. Il portafoglio A ha un beta (rispetto a questo unico fattore) di 2,0 e un rendimento atteso del 20%; il portafoglio B ha un beta di 1,0 e un rendimento atteso del 12%; il portafoglio C ha un beta di 1,5 e un rendimento atteso del 14%. Si noti che investendo la metà del proprio patrimonio nel portafoglio A e la metà nel portafoglio B, si potrebbe ottenere un portafoglio con un beta (sempre rispetto all'unico fattore) pari a 1,5 e un rendimento atteso del 16%. Di conseguenza nessun investitore vorrà investire nel portafoglio C finché non scenderanno i prezzi delle attività in tale portafoglio, portandone così il rendimento atteso al 16%. In alternativa, un investitore può comprare la combinazione dei portafogli A e B, con un rendimento atteso del 16%, e vendere il portafoglio C, con un rendimento atteso del 15%, ottenendo così un profitto pulito dell'1% senza investire nulla e senza assumere alcun rischio. Per impedire tale "arbitraggio", il rendimento atteso di ciascun portafoglio deve essere una funzione lineare del beta. Ogni azione deve offrire un rendimento atteso coerente con il suo contributo al rischio del portafoglio. Secondo l'APM questo contributo dipende dalla sensibilità dei rendimenti dell'azione alle variazioni inattese dei fattori macroeconomici. 5.1. Il tasso di interesse privo di rischio La maggior parte dei modelli di rischio e rendimento in finanza partono da un investimento definito "privo di rischio" e considerano il rendimento atteso da quell'investimento come tasso privo di rischio . I rendimenti attesi da investimenti rischiosi vengono poi calcolati aggiungendo al tasso privo di rischio un premio per il rischio atteso. Abbiamo definito "investimento privo di rischio" un'attività della quale l'investitore conosce con certezza il rendimento atteso. Il rendimento atteso su di un portafoglio pienamente diversificato deve essere misurato in relazione al tasso di rendimento atteso su un titolo privo di rischio . Quando ci riferiamo ai rendimenti (yields) di un titolo di stato come titolo risk-free rate, ci riferiamo al fatto che esso sia privo del rischio di fallimento, riconosciamo però che esso incorpori il maturity risk: la sola parte del rendimento che risulta priva di rischio è dunque la componente degli interessi. Come risultato, l'evidenza empirica di lungo termine è che i rendimenti dei bond a lunga scadenza in media eccedono i rendimenti dei T.Bill. L'horizon premium compensa gli investitori per questo rischio di mercato. Nel primo caso, dovrebbe utilizzare come tasso privo di rischio il tasso di un Treasury Bond statunitense, nel secondo invece un tasso privo di rischio in pesos. Per calcolare un rendimento atteso in termini reali, è necessario partire da un tasso di rischio espresso in termini reali. La soluzione più comune in questi casi (sottrarre al tasso di interesse nominale un tasso di inflazione attesa) fornisce nel migliore dei casi soltanto una stima approssimativa del tasso privo di rischio in termini reali. Nell'approccio basato sul premio per il rischio realizzato, la stima dell'ERP è il premio per il rischio (rendimento azionario realizzato in eccesso rispetto al tasso privo di rischio) che gli investitori hanno, in media, realizzato su periodi di investimento passati. Se i rendimenti periodali dei titoli azionari (ad esempio rendimenti mensili) non sono correlati (i rendimenti di questo mese non sono stati adeguatamente predetti dai rendimenti dell'ultimo mese) e se i rendimenti attesi sono stabili nel tempo, allora la media aritmetica dei rendimenti storici fornisce un'adeguata stima dei rendimenti futuri attesi. Conseguentemente, la media aritmetica dei premi per il rischio realizzati fornisce una stima appropriata dei premi per il rischio futuri attesi (ERP). Differenze nell'approccio per la stima dell'ERP scaturiscono dalla misurazione dei rendimenti attesi sui titoli rischiosi (equity securities). Nell'applicare l'approccio basato sul premio per il rischio realizzato, l'analista seleziona il numero di anni dei rendimenti storici da includere nella media. L'SBBI Yearbook contiene il riassunto dei rendimenti delle azioni e dei titoli di Stato degli USA derivanti da questi dati . (Nel primo periodo, il mercato era composto quasi interamente da titoli bancari, mentre nella metà del diciannovesimo secolo, il mercato era dominato dai titoli delle ferrovie. ) Per questi periodi sono stati assemblati anche i rendimenti dei titoli governativi. La tabella 5.1 fornisce il premio per il rischio medio annuo realizzato da titoli azionari tratti da varie fonti con riferimento a differenti periodi fino al 2006. Si misura il premio per il rischio realizzato confrontando i rendimenti del mercato azionario realizzati durante il periodo con il rendimento dei titoli governativi di lungo termine (o lo yield to maturity per gli anni precedenti il 1926). Dall'osservazione del tabella quello che può risultare sorprendente è che il valore più grande della media aritmetica dei rendimenti annui è quello degli 81 anni dal 1926 al 2006. Per il calcolo dell'ERP viene impiegato il rendimento dei titoli governativi a lungo termine perché in ogni periodo rappresenta il rendimento atteso dei titoli al tempo dell'investimento. Tabella 5.1 Premi per il rischio storici: Rendimenti del mercato azionario – T.Bond 5.3. Il premio per il rischio (risk premium) Il premio per il rischio è un elemento essenziale nel contesto dei modelli di rischio e rendimento. Nel presente paragrafo esamineremo le determinanti fondamentali del premio per il rischio e diversi approcci pratici alla sua stima. Nel CAPM il premio per il rischio misura il rendimento addizionale richiesto in media dagli investitori per spostarsi da un investimento privo di rischio a investimenti rischiosi (il portafoglio di mercato). Ne consegue che il premio per il rischio dovrebbe essere una funzione di due variabili: L'avversione degli investitori al rischio: maggiore l'avversione al rischio, maggiore il premio richiesto dagli investitori. Tale avversione al rischio è in parte congenita, ma dipende anche dalla situazione economica (in un'economia in crescita, gli investitori saranno più propensi ad assumere rischi) e dalla recente performance del mercato (il premio per il rischio tende a salire in seguito a un significativo calo del mercato). Allo stesso modo, nell'APM e nei modelli multifattoriali, i premi per il rischio utilizzati per ciascuno dei fattori saranno pari alla media ponderata dei premi richiesti dai singoli investitori per ciascuno dei fattori. 5.3.1. Equity Premium Puzzle In finanza, l'Equity Premium Puzzle o enigma del premio azionario si riferisce all'osservazione empirica che i rendimenti osservati sui mercati azionari nell'ultimo secolo sono stati superiori a quelli dei titoli di stato; in particolare, il premio per il rischio medio per i titoli azionari nell'ultimo secolo sarebbe pari a circa il 6%, laddove il rendimento medio dei titoli di stato a scadenza breve (considerato una buona approssimazione del rendimento privo di rischio) sarebbe intorno all'1%. La teoria economica suggerisce che gli investitori dovrebbero sfruttare l'evidente opportunità d'arbitraggio rappresentata dalla differenza tra premio per il rischio azionario e rendimento medio dei titoli di stato. Una maggiore domanda provocherebbe a sua volta un aumento dei prezzi medi dei titoli azionari; essendo il rendimento nient'altro che una misura dello scarto tra il prezzo attuale e quello futuro, un aumento del prezzo attuale, ceteris paribus, riduce il rendimento atteso, e con esso il premio per il rischio (dato dalla differenza tra rendimento atteso e tasso di rendimento privo di rischio). In equilibrio, si ridurrebbe dunque lo scarto tra il premio per il rischio dei titoli azionari e il tasso di rendimento privo di rischio, fino al punto in cui tale scarto riflette il premio per il rischio che un investitore rappresentativo richiede per investire nei titoli azionari, caratterizzati da una maggiore rischiosità. Rovesciando questo ragionamento, lo scarto osservato tra i due rendimenti dovrebbe riflettere la valutazione del rischio da parte dell'investitore medio. Gli studiosi che negano l'esistenza del premio per il rischio fondano il proprio convincimento nelle seguenti considerazioni: L'evidenza empirica mostra che negli ultimi quaranta anni (1969-2009) non c'è stato un significativo premio per il rischio azionario sul mercato USA; - Errori di selezione (selection bias) del mercato statunitense: il mercato azionario di maggior successo nel corso del XX° secolo. 5.4.2. Premi storici Il metodo più comune per stimare il premio (o i premi) per il rischio nei modelli di rischio e rendimento è l'estrapolazione da dati storici. Nel CAPM il premio viene calcolato come differenza fra rendimenti medi azionari e rendimenti medi su titoli privi di rischio lungo un esteso periodo di tempo. Nella maggior parte dei casi, questo tipo di approccio consta di tre tappe successive: 1) definire un arco temporale per la stima; 2) calcolare il rendimento medio di un indice azionario e il rendimento medio di un titolo privo di rischio nel periodo in questione; 3) calcolare la differenza fra tali rendimenti e utilizzarla come stima del premio per il rischio atteso per il futuro. La rischiosità media del portafoglio "rischioso" (l'indice azionario nel nostro caso) non sia cambiata in modo sistematico nel tempo. 5.4.3. Premi azionari impliciti Esiste un altro approccio alla stima dei premi per il rischio che non richiede dati storici né correzioni per tenere conto del rischio-Paese. Sottraendo da tale rendimento il tasso privo di rischio, si ottiene un premio implicito per il rischio azionario. Inoltre affinché il premio per il rischio risultasse positivo , dovrebbe verificarsi che: Al fine di illustrare questo metodo, supponiamo che il livello attuale dell'indice S&P 500 sia 900, che il tasso di dividendo atteso sull'indice sia del 2%, e che il tasso di crescita atteso degli utili e dei dividendi nel lungo termine sia del 7%; risolvendo per il rendimento atteso sul capitale netto otteniamo: ; Dato un tasso privo di rischio del 6%, il premio implicito per il rischio azionario sarà pari al 3%. • Risolvendo l'equazione per r, si ottiene una stima del rendimento atteso sul capitale netto pari a 8,39%. Sottraendo da tale stima il tasso dei Treasury Bond (4,02%) si ottiene un premio azionario implicito del 4,37%. Da tali input emerge un rendimento azionario atteso del 10,70% che, se confrontato con il tasso dei Treasury Bond a quella data (4%), implica un premio azionario implicito del 6,70%. Questo fatto ha interessanti implicazioni per la stima del premio per il rischio. Allo stesso modo, il premio del 2% che abbiamo osservato alla fine della bolla speculativa delle società Internet (dot-com boom) degli anni '90 è tornato rapidamente ai livelli medi, durante la correzione del mercato del 2000-2003. Data questa tendenza, possiamo concludere con una migliore stima del premio per il rischio implicito, guardando non solo al premio corrente, ma anche alle linee di tendenza storiche. Tre motivi, tuttavia, spiegano l'esistenza di stime del premio per il rischio così diverse. Ad esempio, data una deviazione standard annuale dei prezzi azionari fra il 1928 e il 2003 pari al 20%, la Tabella 6.1 riporta l'entità dell'errore standard associato alla stima del premio per il rischio in funzione della lunghezza del periodo di stima. Tabella 6.1 Errori standard nelle stime dei premi di rischio La scelta del titolo privo di rischio La banca dati Ibbotson riporta i rendimenti si a dei Treasury Bill sia dei Treasury Bond, sicchè il premio per il rischio degli investimenti azionari può essere stimato rispetto a entrambi. Il tasso privo di rischio alla base della stima del premio deve essere coerente con il tasso privo di rischio utilizzato nel calcolo dei rendimenti attesi. Nella maggior parte dei casi, in finanza aziendale, il tasso privo di rischio rilevante è quello di lungo periodo. Le medie aritmetiche e geometriche Un ultimo elemento di controversia nella stima dei premi storici consiste nel modo in cui calcolare le medie dei rendimenti. La media aritmetica consiste nella semplice media dei rendimenti annuali, mentre la media geometrica si riferisce al rendimento composto. In effetti, se i rendimenti annui non sono correlati nel tempo, la media aritmetica rappresenta la stima più corretta del premio per il rischio atteso per l'anno prossimo. In primo luogo, studi empirici sembrano indicare che i rendimenti degli investimenti azionari sono negativamente correlati nel corso del tempo. Tabella 6.2 Premi di rischio storici (%) del mercato statunitense, 1928-2008 Tirando le somme, le stime del premio per il rischio possono variare a seconda delle differenze in termini di periodo di stima, scelta del titolo di Stato come tasso privo di rischio (a breve o lungo termine), e utilizzo di medie aritmetiche oppure geometriche. Se ci atteniamo al proposito di selezionare un premio basato sulla media geometrica a lungo termine rispetto al tasso dei Treasury Bond a lungo termine, la stima migliore del premio per il rischio sulla base di dati storici è 4,82%. 6.1. Periodicità dei dati storici Anche se accettiamo l'ipotesi che i rendimenti siano effettivamente indipendenti, la media aritmetica dei premi per il rischio realizzati basati su rendimenti di 1 anno potrebbe non essere la migliore stima dei rendimenti futuri. I tradizionali modelli dei rendimenti dei titoli (es. CAPM) sono generalmente modelli uniperiodali che stimano i rendimenti su orizzonti di tempo non specificati. Allora nell'utilizzare i rendimenti realizzati per stimare i rendimenti attesi, dobbiamo calcolare i rendimenti realizzati su periodi di due anni (media geometrica dei rendimenti annui di due anni consecutivi) e poi calcolare la media aritmetica delle medie geometriche dei due anni per ottenere una stima incondizionata dei rendimenti futuri. Gli autori mostrano che l'utilizzo della media geometrica dei rendimenti storici a un anno produce una stima dei rendimenti cumulati che approssima maggiormente la mediana dei rendimenti cumulati (il 50% degli investitori realizzerà un rendimento maggiore di quello mediano e il 50% un rendimento inferiore a quello mediano). Essi dimostrano che la differenza tra la mediana dei rendimenti cumulati ottenuta dall'impiego della media aritmetica rispetto alla media geometrica dei rendimenti storici a un anno aumenta poiché aumenta l'orizzonte d'investimento atteso. 6.2. Selezione del periodo di riferimento Il premio per il rischio realizzato medio risulta essere sensibile al periodo che viene scelto per calcolare tale media. I modelli di rendimento possono cambiare nel tempo. Concentrandosi sul recente passato si ignorano i drammatici eventi storici e il loro impatto sui rendimenti del mercato. Gli anni dal 1942 fino al 1951 furono un periodo di stabilità artificiale dei tassi dei bond statunitensi. Includendo questo periodo nel calcolo dei rendimenti realizzati equivale a valutare i titoli delle linee aere di oggi facendo riferimento ai titoli delle linee aeree prima della deregulation. Tabella 6.4 Premi per il Rischio realizzati sui rendimenti dei T.Bond Se il premio per il rischio medio è cambiato nel corso del tempo, allora la media del rischio realizzato utilizzare la più lunga serie dei dati disponibili diviene discutibile. A partire dalla metà degli anni '50 fino al 1981, i rendimenti dei bond hanno registrato un trend crescente, dettando una generalizzata diminuzione del prezzo dei medesimi. I rendimenti realizzati dai bond erano generalmente più bassi dei rendimenti attesi al momento della loro emissione (l'investitore che avesse venduto prima della scadenza avrebbe registrato una perdita). Dal 1981 i rendimenti dei titoli di Stato hanno iniziato a diminuire, provocando una generalizzata crescita del loro prezzo. Nella tabella 6.5 presentiamo statistiche riassuntive per i rendimenti dei titoli azionari, dei Treasury Bill a 6 mesi e dei Treasury Bond a 10 anni dal 1928 al 2008: Tabella 6.5 Statistiche riassuntive Utilizzando questa tabella possiamo iniziare a stimare un premio per il rischio facendo la differenza tra il rendimento medio delle azioni e il rendimento medio dei titoli di Stato: il premio per il rischio è del 7,30% per le azioni rispetto ai T.Bills (11,09% - 3,79%) e 5,64% per le azioni rispetto ai T.Bonds (11,09% - 5,45%). I premi per il rischio storici per i mercati emergenti possono fornire interessanti spunti di riflessione, ma non possono essere impiegati nei modelli di rischio e rendimento. Consideriamo per prima cosa l'assunzione fondamentale che il premio per il rischio per gli investitori non sia cambiato nel corso del tempo e che l'investimento rischioso medio (nel portafoglio di mercato) sia rimasto stabile nel periodo di tempo esaminato. Nel periodo compreso tra il 1926 e il 2000, gli investimenti in molti degli altri mercati dei capitali avrebbero prodotto premi molto più contenuti rispetto al mercato USA, e alcuni di essi si sarebbero tradotti, per gli investitori, in rendimenti più contenuti o negativi nel corso del periodo. Tabella 6.7 Premi per Rischio storici di differenti mercati: 1900-2005 Dall'analisi della tabella risulta che i premi per il rischio, risultanti dalla media dei 17 mercati, sono più bassi dei premi per il rischio degli Stati Uniti. Per esempio, la media geometrica del premio per il rischio tra i vari mercati è solo del 4,04%, più bassa del 4,52% del mercato USA. La figura 5.1 riporta i premi per il rischio – ossia i rendimenti addizionali – ottenuti investendo in azioni piuttosto che titoli di Stato a breve e lungo termine nel periodo in questione per ciascuno dei diciassette mercati. In Francia, invece, le cifre corrispondenti sarebbero state del 9,27% e del 6,03%. Nella prima parte di questa sezione, rimarremo all'interno del mercato statunitense tentando di apportare delle modifiche al premio per il rischio facendo riferimento a specifiche caratteristiche dell'impresa (la capitalizzazione del mercato rappresenta l'esempio più comune). Nella seconda parte, estendiamo l'analisi osservando mercati emergenti come Asia, America Latina e Europa orientale, provando l'approccio basato sulla stima del premio per il rischio Paese che aumenta poi il premio per il rischio statunitense. Il primo si riferisce a se ci dovrebbe essere un premio per il rischio addizionale quando si valutano i titoli in questi mercati, dovuto al rischio Paese. Il secondo quesito si ricollega invece alla stima del premio per il rischio dei mercati emergenti. L'altro è considerare i rendimenti eccedenti come l'evidenza che i beta sono misure inadeguate del rischio e come compensazione del rischio tralasciato. Per giungere a questo premio gli analisti fanno riferimento ai dati storici sui rendimenti degli small cap stocks e del mercato, aggiustato per il beta risk, e attribuiscono il rendimento eccedente allo small cap effect. Tabella 6.8 Excess Returns per classi del valore di mercato: titoli USA 1927-2007 Se si aggiunge al costo del capitale delle piccole imprese uno small cap premium del 4-5%, senza attribuire tale premio ad un rischio specifico, siamo esposti al pericolo di conteggiare doppiamente tale rischio. 6.5.2. Il Premio per il Rischio Paese Per molti mercati emergenti, sono disponibili pochissimi dati storici, e quelli che esistono sono troppo volatili per giungere a una stima sensata del premio per il rischio. In questi casi, il premio per il rischio può essere così calcolato: Il premio per il rischio-Paese riflette il rischio addizionale associato a un mercato specifico. Per determinare il premio base per un mercato azionario maturo è opportuno fare riferimento al mercato azionario statunitense che, oltre ad essere il mercato finanziario più efficiente, offre dati storici sufficienti a ottenere una stima ragionevole del premio per il rischio. 1. Gli analisti che utilizzano i differenziali per il rischio di insolvenza come misure del rischio-Paese di solito li sommano sia al costo del capitale netto sia a quello del debito di ciascuna impresa quotata nel Paese in questione. Per esempio, il costo del capitale netto di una impresa brasiliana, stimato in dollari statunitensi, sarà del 2,15% maggiore del costo del capitale netto di un'impresa statunitense simile. Dato un premio per il rischio per i mercati azionari maturi (Stati Uniti) del 4,00% e un tasso privo di rischio del 3,80% (Treasury Bond statunitensi), il costo del capitale netto di una società brasiliana con un beta di 1,2 può essere stimato nel modo seguente: Alcuni analisti sommano il differenziale per il rischio di insolvenza al premio per il rischio statunitense, moltiplicando la somma così ottenuta per il beta. Questo procedimento risulta in un maggiore (minore) costo del capitale netto per le imprese con beta maggiore (minore) di 1. Volatilità del mercato azionario rispetto a mercati azionari maturi Alcuni analisti ritengono che i premi per il rischio azionario dei mercati debbano riflettere le differenze in termini di volatilità fra i diversi mercati. Una misura convenzionale del rischio azionario è la deviazione standard dei prezzi azionari: deviazioni standard più elevate indicano di solito un rischio maggiore. Questa deviazione standard relativa, moltiplicata per il premio utilizzato per le azioni statunitensi, fornisce una possibile stima del premio per il rischio totale di un mercato. Se assumiamo una relazione lineare tra il premio per il rischio e la deviazione standard del mercato azionario, oltre alla possibilità di calcolare il premio per il rischio del mercato statunitense (utilizzando ad esempio dati storici), allora il premio per il rischio del Paese X è: Assumiamo, per il momento, di utilizzare per gli Stati Uniti un premio per il rischio del 4%. La tabella 6.9 elenca i dati della volatilità del Paese per alcuni mercati emergenti ed i risultanti premi per il rischio totale e Paese per questi mercati, basato sull'assunzione che il premio per il rischio degli Stati Uniti sia del 4%. Tabella 6.9 Volatilità del mercato azionario e Premi per il rischio Per esempio, il premio per il rischio della Cina è 5,52%, utilizzando questo approccio, ben al di sopra del premio per il rischio di Nigeria, Namibia e Egitto, ognuno dei quali dovrebbe essere un mercato rischioso quanto la Cina. Differenziali per il rischio di insolvenza + volatilità del mercato rispetto ai titoli di Stato I differenziali per il rischio di insolvenza del Paese associati ai rispettivi rating, pur rappresentando una prima tappa importante, misurano soltanto il premio per il rischio di insolvenza. Per capire di quanto, si può calcolare la volatilità del mercato azionario di un Paese rispetto alla volatilità dei titoli di Stato utilizzati per la stima del premio per il rischio azionario del Paese. A titolo illustrativo, prendiamo il caso del Brasile. Il premio addizionale per il rischio azionario del Paese che ne risulta per il Brasile è il seguente: Va notato che il premio per il rischio del Paese aumenterà al crescere del differenziale per il rischio di insolvenza del Paese e della volatilità del mercato azionario. Inoltre, va ricordato che esso va sommato al premio per il rischio azionario di un mercato maturo. I primi due approcci per la stima dei premi per il rischio del Paese tendono a risultare in una stima più bassa rispetto al terzo. Nel caso del Brasile, per esempio, i premi per il rischio del Paese vanno dal 2,76% (secondo approccio), al 6,01% (primo approccio), fino a un picco del 4,43% (terzo approccio). Va ricordato che l'unico rischio rilevante ai fini della stima del costo del capitale netto è il rischio di mercato, ossia il rischio non diversificabile. Se, al contrario, i mercati azionari dei Paesi si muovono nella stessa direzione, il rischio-Paese avrà una componente di rischio di mercato no diversificabile e per la quale è necessario un premio. 7. PARAMETRI DI RISCHIO Gli ultimi dati di cui abbiamo bisogno per mettere in pratica i nostri modelli di rischio e rendimento sono i parametri di rischio per una specifica attività. Nel CAPM il beta di un'attività deve essere stimato rispetto al portafoglio di mercato. Nel contesto del CAPM, il beta viene poi ottenuto esaminando la relazione fra questi rendimenti e i corrispondenti rendimenti di un indice del mercato azionario. Infine, nell'APM è l'analisi fattoriale dei rendimenti azionari a fornire i vari beta. 7.1.1. Procedura per la stima dei parametri del CAPM Il beta di un'attività può essere stimato come coefficiente di una regressione dei rendimenti di una singola azione (Rj) sui rendimenti del mercato azionario (Rm). L'intercetta della regressione fornisce una semplice misura della performance effettivamente ottenuta nell'arco temporale analizzato, rispetto alla performance attesa alla luce del CAPM. Dal punto di vista finanziario va interpretato come proporzione del rischio complessivo di un'azione (varianza) attribuibile al rischio di mercato; ne segue che la differenza (1-R2) indica invece la proporzione del rischio complessivo di un'azione attribuibile al rischio specifico d'impresa. Un ultimo dato statistico di interesse è l'errore standard della stima del beta. La prima riguarda la durata del periodo di stima. 7.1.2. Procedura di stima dei parametri di rischio nell'APM e nel modello multifattoriale Come il CAPM, anche l'APM considera solo il rischio non diversificabile; tuttavia, nella misurazione del rischio, a differenza del CAPM, l'APM tiene conto di una molteplicità di fattori economici. Sebbene il processo di stima dei parametri di rischio sia diverso, molti problemi legati alle determinanti del rischio nel CAPM si presentano anche per l'APM. La derivazione del beta dai fondamentali rappresenta un approccio alternativo alla stima del beta, in cui si dà minore rilievo alla stima basata su dati storici e maggiore rilievo all'intuizione economica. Intensità della leva finanziaria (financial leverage) Il beta delle attività dell'impresa è la media ponderata del beta del capitale netto (rischio a carico degli azionisti) e del beta del debito (rischio a carico degli obbligazionisti). A parità di condizioni, a un aumento della leva finanziaria (cioè del rapporto d'indebitamento ) seguirà un aumento del rischio a carico degli azionisti (e quindi del beta del capitale netto). Il beta dell'insieme di due attività è la media ponderata del beta di ciascuna attività, con i pesi proporzionali al loro valore di mercato. 1. Calcolare il beta unlevered dell'impresa come media ponderata dei beta unlevered delle varie attività, usando come pesi la percentuale del valore di mercato dell'impresa rappresentata da ciascuna attività.
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"\X7~e al-re/ays na-v7-e tine; sea-sons novelties, besides a complete line o£ staples at prices to tempt you, • SPECIAL CARE TAKEN TO MAKE WORK STYLISH AND EXACTLY TO YOUR ORDER. - CUill CQ. Seligman, Taiio*, 7 Chambepsbupg St., Gettysburg, Pa. R. A. WONDERS Corner Cigar Parlors. A full line of Cigars, Tobacco, Pipes, etc. Scott's Corner, opp. Eagle Hotel GETTYSBURG, PA. Pool Parlors in Connection. D. J. Swartz Country Mnce Dealein Groceries Cigars and Tokco GETTYSBURG. Established 1867 by Allen Walton. . Allen K. Walton, Pres. and Treas. Root. J. Walton, Superintendent. Hummelstown Brown Stone (Jompanij, QTT_£L.i^:R,-5r:ivd:E isr and Manufacturers of BUILDING STONE, SAWED FLAGGING, and TILE, WALTONVILLE, 1£E. PENNA. Contractors for all kinds of cut stone work. Telegraph and Express Address, I3ROWNSTONE, PA. Parties visiting Quarries will leave cars at Brownstone Station, on the P. & R. R.R. THE GETTYSBURG JIERGDRY The Literary Journal of Gettysburg College Voi,. XII. GETTYSBURG, PA., APRIL, 1903 No. 2 CONTENTS MY GUARDIAN STAR 48 C. E. BUTLER, '05. JONATHAN SWIFT AS A SATIRIST 49 HERBERT L. STIFEL, '03. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HIGHER EDUCATION FOR WOMAN S3 M. ADA MCLINN, '04. THE BLACK SHEEP . 57 ESSAY-WRITING AS A COLLEGE DISCIPLINE . . 62 N. R. WHITNEY, '06. A SOLILOQUY 64 B. A. STROHMEIER, '06. THE INFLUENCE OF THE NOVEL . . . . . 66 J. EDWARD LOWE, '05. THE RURAL TELEPHONE 68 BRUCE P. COBAUGH, '05. SHOULD A STUDENT KEEP HIS COLLEGE TEXT-BOOKS? . 70 C. EDWIN BUTLER, '05 EDITORIALS 72 EXCHANGES " . 75 48 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. MY GUARDIAN STAR. C. E. BUTLER, '05. *m MiERE are spots in the far away sky *• Where the heavenly bodies stand, Like sentinels over all nature To keep the peace of the land. Here alone, great bodies are strewn And there sweeps a beautiful lake, And an angel brings a rose every night To hang as a clear silver flake. If one were to pause in the evening And gaze to the heavens all aglow, He would find there, a star, by instinct Whose secret only one man can know. This bright and heavenly body Has been placed by the hand of Fate To keep watch o'er a certain pilgrim On his journeys early and late. The Fates favor not only one, But each has his guardian star, And if you will but eagerly look Your guardian is watching from afar. 'Tis sweet to be so shielded By a Father who watches from above, For such stars are the works of his hand As our guardian angels of love. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 49 JONATHAN SWIFT AS A SATIRIST. HERBERT L. STIEEL, '03. {Graeff Prize Essay.] SATIRE has been defined as criticism that searches for de-fects in order to ridicule them. Being destructive rather than constructive, it is not the highest form of criticism; in fact it occupies a low plane in the scale of literary merit. Neverthe-less, it has been a popular form of writing from the times of the Athenian Aristophanes and the Roman Horace down to the present day. At no time, perhaps, was it so prevalent as at the beginning of the eighteenth century. Those days formed a period of literary duels, personal, political, and religious, such as the world has never seen before or since. Satire, lampoon, and epigram were the weapons ; such men as Voltaire, Swift, Addison, and Defoe, were the contestants. Masters of their weapons, all of them ; able to send home their rapier-like thrusts with telling effect. Pre-eminent among them, in satire at least, stands Jonathan Swift, author, clergyman, politician and misanthrope. Many a brilliant production has come from his vitriolic pen, but none of his works contain a satire more keen than his own life. At college he was a poor student. He read much, but the regular studies of his course had no attraction for him. Mathematics and the sciences of the day were his especial bugbear. This dislike may have been the origin of the ridicule to which he subjected them later, in his "Voyage to Laputa." At times he was pinched with poverty. An extremely dis-agreeable disposition prevented his making many friends and soon lost for him the few he did have. Joseph Addison was one notable exception, however; his friendship for Swift was firm and lasting. Swift was a man of irascible passions, mis-anthropic to the last degree. Life, to his mind, was not worth living. He had a horror of old age and a desire for death which would have been pathetic had it not been so cynical and bitter. "God bless you, I hope we shall never meet again," 50 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. was his customary farewell to his friends. Brutality towards woman was another of Swift's traits, Esther Johnson, the subject of his "Journal to Stella" and Miss Vanhomrig, known in his works as Vanessa, were the principal sufferers. The last few years of his life were spent in total insanity. Even on his death bed the habit of satire was strong in him. With satirical intent, as he himself admitted, he willed his entire fortune to a home for incurable madmen. Of the writings of Swift, "Gulliver's Travels" is the most im-portant and best known. Nearly all of his other satires are at times licentious, indelicate, and coarse. Particularly is this true of his "Tale of a Tub," a general satire, lashing in all directions. This was one of his earliest works and though very offensive, it has been pronounced "the most powerful satire of the century." The "Drapiers Letters" and the "Battle of the Books" are also among his more important productions. In his two pamphlets written along almost parallel lines, the "Argu-ment Against the Abolishment of Christianity" and the "Modest Proposal for Preventing the Children in Ireland from Being a Burden to their Parents" by fattening and eating them, we have two of the best examples of unrestrained irony known to the English language. He is also the author of numerous political pamplets which are worthy of consideration as examples of pure, simple En-glish. Throughout all of them we can trace the unfailing vein of his satire. The style of Swift is simple, direct and even. Sentences flow naturally and easily from his pen. A child would have no difficulty in understanding the words which he uses. Originality is another "characteristic of his works. Sir Walter Scott draws our attention to this fact, claiming that Swift was more original than any other author of his period. Swift has been imitated, as in the "Travels of Baron Mun-chausen," but never did he imitate. An interesting peculiarity of his writings is his power of giving "the wildest fiction an air of realism." The characteristics and methods of Swift's satire are best discerned by an examination of his well known work, "Gulliver's THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. Si Travels."* Here he makes the wildest invention and most grotesque humor hide a serious purpose. So well does he succeed that I have heard a college man, a Senior, declare that the work is a story for children, written with that purpose in view. The voyage of Captain Gulliver to Lilliput refers chiefly to the court and politics of England. The political parties in Lilliput, the one insisting that high heels shall be worn upon the shoes, the other equally insistent that only low heels shall be worn, are the Tories and Whigs of England. When Swift tells of the heir apparent of the country, who wears one heel high and one low, the shaft is aimed at the Prince of Wales, whose political leanings were equivocal, to say the least. The petty disputes in Lilliput as to whether eggs should be broken at the small or the big end, find their parallel in the differences of the English Papists and Protestants. Horace Walpole, Prime Minister'of England, is said to have laughed heartily when, on reading Swift's ridiculous account of the Premier Flimnap, he recognized himself. Placing the scene of the story in a country where the inhabitants are six inches high and their surroundings and deeds in proportion, only adds effectiveness. In the next voyage we are taken to Brobdingnag. The satire here is more general. Few particular references to persons or events can be discovered. The littleness and vanity of our desires and the insignificance of our pursuits are shown the more strongly by increasing them to Brobdingnagian propor-tions. The third voyage is to Laputa, and this time the scien-tists of England suffer. It is not real science which Swift de-rides, but the many pretenses and imitations of the day. Nevertheless, some pointed passages are directed against Sir Isaac Newton and the Royal Society. In the author's gloomy account of the Struldbrugs, the immortals of Laputa, we are reminded of his own indifference to life and his fear of old age. * Analysis based on notes of Rev. John Mitford ; W. C. Taylor Edi-tion, Vol. I. 52 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. The satire which we find in the fourth voyage is bitterly mis-anthropic and repelling. On this voyage, Captain Gulliver is thrown ashore upon an island where the horse is the superior animal and man the inferior. The picture which Swift here draws of human nature is nauseating and disgusting. The mind at once rejects so horrible a caricature. Had the "Voy-age to the Houyhnums" never been written, "Gulliver's Travels" would be a much more readable book. With all his coarseness, Swift was undoubtedly a genius. Thackeray, with all his adverse criticism, admits that he was "the greatest wit of all times ;" Macaulay claims that he was the "ablest man in the Tory party" and the "keenest observer of men and manners ;" Joseph Addison calls him "the greatest genius of his age." Of Swift's use of English, Dr. Hugh Blair says, "He knew beyond almost any man the purity, extent and precision of the English language." The consensus of opinion is that he was the greatest satirist of his own, if not of any, age. Sir Walter Scott not inaptly compares the personality of Swift to Shake-speare's description of Cassius in "Julius Caesar :" "He reads much ; He is a great observer and he looks quite through The deeds of men. Seldom he smiles ; and smiles in such a sort, As if he mocked himself and scorned his spirit. That could be moved to smile at anything." THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 53 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HIGHER EDUCATION FOR WOMAN. M. ADA MCLINN, '04. "Ignorance is the curse of God. Kowledge is the wings with which we fly to heaven." IF knowledge is so significant for the uplifting of the human race and the lack of knowledge equally significant for its downfall, it is worth while to investigate it and discover in what way it means so much to mankind in general. It is through education that one obtains knowledge. Education is too comprehensive in its workings to admit of definition. This much can be said of it, however. It is an all-round de-velopment of the mind by means of which it expands and changes in character. This development guides the mind to the great realms of thought where a vast, vast expanse stretches before it. There the minds sees by-ways, roads and large avenues which lead to undiscovered knowledge. The only pass needed for traveling upon them is thought—deep, re-searchive thought; but, to speak literally, the training of one's intellectual powers is of untold value. Ask any educated per-son if he would be willing to part with what he knows. He will answer positively in the negative. It means too much to him to part with it at any price. What mean the phenomena of nature to the untaught? What does he see in the sky above him other than a canopy over the earth set with lights ? He does not see the stars as worlds revolving in the endless blue aether. What does he see in the gorgeous cloud formations and hues of dawn and sunset other than a sign of to morrow's weather ? The orchard in its dainty dress of blossom pink and leafy green means only a prospective crop of fruit. To one whose mind has been trained by thought and study these sights give inspiration, they open a new world to him, they fill his mind with glorious reflections and create within him a desire to become something. 54 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. To the ignorant person, the world is as an opaque mist. He can see dimly the outlines and positions of objects, but can-not define them. It is education that clears away the opacity and enables him to view his surroundings through a clear transparent atmosphere. It is in our literature that we find the greatest thoughts of the greatest minds, the most soul inspiring thought, the most beautiful songs of gifted poets. These mean nothing to the unlearned. He thereby loses all the best that the world which lived before him left him. Education gives one a constant source of entertainment and instruction. Place an educated person on a lonely island. He can do more than exist. He can find friends in the birds, the trees, in fact, in all of his surroundings. Place him in the crowded city and, because of his insight into human nature, he will be the leader of his circle. In any place, he is at home and capable. Through education one discovers what a potent force is mind—how it rules the world with its all-compelling sway. Before this development one leads, as it were, a vegetative ex-istence ; he is merely an individual—one of the many millions upon the earth's surface. Educate him and he is a person with a personal plan before him to carry out. He is a character with influence. This and much more does education mean to every human being who lives on God's earth—both to man and woman, but we shall now proceed to show what it signifies to woman, specially, in her own sphere. No one will deny that woman's mental constitution is dif-ferent from man's. Her nature is more sensitive to her sur-roundings, she requires a more ideal existence, her sense of sympathy is keener, her heart is the controlling force. To such a temperament education means more than to the more staid temperament of man. Her sensitive nature quick-ened, by such training, to a sense of the great possibilities be-fore it, will make a new world for itself. The horizon will stretch away from the four walls of the house to the great round THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 55 - world. To her, personally, it means a life flavored with con-tinual happiness, it is "a thing of beauty and a joy forever." It gives her the ideal existence that she needs. Instead of be-ing bound down to the hum-drum routine of her household duties, she rises above the drudgery of them. With systematic order she can arrange these duties, then lay them aside to en-joy life in a realm above the culinary department. Her tendency to be ruled by the heart is restrained, which, while most humane, is sometimes dangerous without the con-trolling power of reason. Her judgment and reasoning powers are developed. She views the questions of life with logical perception. Her sanguine temperament is brought to its proper balance and her mind in emergencies becomes calm and clear. It is the ideal existence which makes woman happy, and Ruskin says, that is what makes her lovely. It is education that gives substance to her day dreams. With clearer vision than man she grasps the ideal which stands out upon the heights of possible achievement. She listens to the low voice of duty which commands the actualization of this ideal, and with the power which the intellectual life bestows, she approxi-mates it more closely, in her daily life, than man can do. In the home it establishes her as queen. What does it not mean to a home to have an educated mother in it? Her trained faculties, combined with her innate love and sympathy, make her an ideal mother. It is safe to say that the rudeness of American children, for which unfortunately they are noted, would disappear could educated and cultured mothers be placed in all homes. To his mother a child owes his mental endowment. Review the biographies of the great men of the age. It will be found that from their mothers they inherited superior mental traits. Again to be an ideal wife a woman must have reached such a stage of mental development that she can meet her husband on any ground. Can there be per-fect congenialty and love between two minds, one of which has expanded and been broadened in its development, the other a small intellect filled with trifles ? In addition to the influence education exerts upon a woman 56 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. personally, and her elevation in the home, it means a great deal to her social position. One can judge the status of a com-munity by the women he finds in it. Woman rules the social world about her. Every one will acknowledge that it is desir-able to live in a community of some standing and culture. Then he must acknowledge that it is necessary to have the women educated who live in the community. An educated woman will have no time for petty gossip and slander. And by conversing with her one will gain more than mere diversion. It gives her presence, assurance and tact in her intercourse with others. If one wishes to know what education has done for woman previous to this, let him note the changes in her condition and in the condition of the world, since the time when she was de-nied the privilege of learning even so much as the alphabet. Education enables woman to help man directly and indirectly in his work in the world. It was Psyche, in Tennyson's "Princess," who in speaking of this union of the minds of man and woman, said with prophetic voice: "Everywhere Two heads in council, two beside the hearth, Two in the tangled business of the world, Two in the liberal offices of life, Two plummets dropped for one to sound the abyss Of science and the secrets of the mind." This combining of the two minds she expected to see brought about by woman's being educated apart from the world. We are seeing her prophecy fulfilled, not by woman's exclusion from the world, but by her mingling with it, and being edu-cated to dwell in it. In this way she is becoming an interesting factor in the world's history, while at the same time she is becoming a womanly woman, full of charm, and ready to fill any place where the world needs her, be it within or without the home. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 57 THE BLACK SHEEP. IN his library, one December night, an old man sat watching the flames as they leaped higher and higher in the old fireplace, each one seeming as though it were trying to reach a greater height than its fellow. His head rested in his hands, and on his face was a look of sadness, such as might have been produced by some mental agony. If the old man's face could have been seen, a tear would have been noticed trinkling down his old, wrinkled face. He might, perchance, be recalling the dark days of his life. For no life, no matter to what height of perfection it has attained, but has had its hours of temptations and darkness. Outside the winds howled and moaned. The snow flew in clouds. A fierce winter's storm was raging. The streets were deserted except for those whom business compelled to be abroad on such a night. Yes, on such a night the home was the Mecca of all pedestrians. The old man continued to sit in silence until he was aroused from his musings by the opening of the door into his den. And turning around he beheld his daughter in the doorway. She was a woman of perhaps twenty years of age, not to say beautiful; but her face had that in it which makes one feel at once that he has found a woman of noble character. One whose life was filled with noble sentiment and pure thoughts. "You wish to see me, father?" she asked, approaching the old man. "Yes, my dear," replied the old man, raising his head, "draw a chair up to the fireplace, I wish to talk to you." While she was doing as her father directed, the old man's head was again in his hands and he seemed lost in thought. She sat for some moments in silence, waiting for the old man to speak, but he did not move. At length she ventured to say, "I am still here, father." Without seeming to notice her remark the old man began : "Nellie, I have always been a good father to you, haven't 58 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. I ? I have always done all for you that I should ? I was always good to your mother before she died? I never brought disgrace or sorrow to our home ? We were always happy, we three ?" "Why, certainly, father, why do you ask ?" his daughter questioned, in some surprise. "Because, my daughter," the old man resumed, "I feel that my life is almost at its close; that my race is almost run." "Don't talk so foolish, father, you know that you will live many years yet." "Ah ! my daughter, I wish it were so, but I know it cannot be. And before I die there is something which I must tell you. Something which only myself and my God know, yet I feel, my darling, that when I have told you that you will turn away from your poor old father in disgust. You won't do that, Nellie ? Say that you won't do that." And the old man stretched his hands appealingly toward his daughter. "You have always been true and noble to me, father, and whatever you may have done I am sure that I will love you still," replied the girl taking the old man's hands in her own. They sat in silence for some moments but at length the old man began: "Having started out in life under favorable circumstances, it was not long until I had made a name for myself. At a quite early age I became cashier in the bank then run by Howard & Rawlston. My mother and father were proud of their son. He was an honor and joy to them. Soon my name became a by-word for honesty and integrity. But not so with my elder brother Dick. On the contrary, Dick was a wild sort of a chap. The old folks never mentioned his doings excepting when things had gone so far that we could not bear them any longer. Time after time father had gotten him out of one scrape only to find that he had gotten into another. At last it came to a crisis and when father had given poor old Dick his last chance, he ignominiously failed. Then father left him shift for himself. I really pitied my brother often, believing that we THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 59 did not fully understand him. For I knew that at heart he was a noble fellow. " Year after year glided by, during which I met your mother and our friendship was eventually consummated in our happy marriage. At length, one day, I was shown a chance by which I might make my fortune. I invested. Then came the crash. What should I do ? I needed money. An idea came to my mind, but I would not listen to it. No, I had lost my all but I was still honest. " Oh ! how many sleepless nights I spent. Oh ! how many days of torture I lived through, no one will ever know. And then to cap the climax you were born. There were three mouths to feed now, what should I do? After much delibera-tion I resolved to give way to the thought which had come into my mind, and make of myself a criminal. I was surprised to see with what complacency I arranged my plan. Really, I was astonished with myself. " I waited with impatience the fatal day. It came at last, bringing with it rain and a high wind. A very suitable time for my opprobrious project. After the business hours of the day were over I went home, ate my supper, and told your mother I must go out on business. This being a frequent oc-currence did not surprise her in the least. 'About midnight, muffled in a long coat, I made my way to-ward the bank. The rain was falling fast. No one was on the streets. All the better for me. At length I stood on the bank steps; my heart almost failed me. No, I would not turn back, I had made my resolve and would stick to it. I took out my keys and soon had the door open. It was only the work of a moment to get to the safe and open it. Quickly taking out ten packages of bills, each containing ten one thousand dollar bills, I put them into a bag which I had brought with me for that purpose. Ah, I was rich once more, but the bank! The bank was ruined, but what cared I for that, I had gone too far to turn back. The bank must look out for itself. "In a few moments I had the safe closed and was soon on the outside. I hastily looked up and down the street. No one 6o THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. was in sight. I started quickly up the street. Soon I was at the corner and just as I turned around it I bumped into a man coming in the opposite direction. He muttered something about people looking where they were going. We looked at each other, my God! It was my brother Dick. He did not apparently recognize me, or if he did he did not care to let me know it. "I was soon at home and after having put the bank notes in a safe place turned to my bed to spend a sleepless night. ******** "The next day the town was wild., The robbery had been discovered. The bank was on the verge of ruin. Detectives were sent for, but they could find no clue. The robbers had left not the slightest trace of their identity behind. "A few weeks after, one of the parties believed he had traced the crime to me. He as much as told me that I had done it. What should I do ? Was all my work for nothing ? I must prove an alibi by all means, but how ? That was the question. "The directors of the bank were in meeting. I was there against my will. I was to prove to them that I had had no connection with the robbery whatever. If I failed in this I should be handed over to the authorities in the morning. I was almost frantic with fear. I believed myself lost. I had been away from home that night and they knew it. Try as I would, I could not think of any plausible thing to tell them. "Many questions were asked me, and I was given a chance to prove that I was not near the place of crime. But it was of no avail. I could not do it. I was doomed. At length Mr. Howard arose and looking squarely at me said, 'John Gilford, we have given you a chance to clear yourself. You have failed. Yet you stoutly maintain your innocence. We wish to believe you. I wish to God I could do so. But if you are not guilty, who is?' "Not a sound was heard. The perspiration was trinkling down my face in large drops. The fatal moment had come. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 61 All eyes were riveted upon me. I resolved to confess, to tell them all. I was just about to answer when 'I am' came the answer in a clear and distinct voice. We all turned and there standing in the doorway was a man, worn and haggard-looking, and that man was my brother Dick. "I tried to see Dick during the trial but he would not let them admit me to see him. All too soon the trial was over, and Dick was sentenced to twenty years in the State prison. But the poor boy did not last long. The next year we buried him in the cemetery on the hill. He had fallen a victim to typhoid fever, contracted shortly after he entered the prison. "My darling, what years of torture I have gone through since then no one can realize. What remorse and anguish have filled my soul God alone knows. But I was a coward then. I could not confess and clear him, and Dick, poor boy, did it for myself and your mother. He loved your mother, Nellie, and he would not see her disgraced." The old man in his earnestness arose, stretched his hands toward his daughter : "You forgive me my child ? You will love—you will love—me—still ?" He tottered and fell to the floor. Quickly his daughter was by his side. "Speak to me, father," she cried, "speak to me." She felt at his heart. It had ceased to beat. No, he would speak no more. He had gone to his God. His race was run. He had gone to join the Black Sheep. w. A. G. 62 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. ESSAY-WRITING AS A COLLEGE DISCIPLINE. N. R. WHITNEY, '06. THE end for which men come to college is to gain a lib-eral education. To attain this end it is necessaiy to make use of some means besides that of poring over text books. These means are to be found especially in literary-work. This must not be understood as implying that the knowledge gained from text books is of secondary importance. On the contrary such knowledge is of primary importance, for one must have thoughts worthy of utterance before he begins to write; and the knowledge gained from a course of study is such as to suggest these thoughts. Besides text books we have access to another source of in-formation. This is found in the reading of good literature. When a person reads a book properly it is not the thoughts of the author that impress and benefit him so much as it is the ideas suggested to him by the book, but enlarged and converted into thought by his own brain. We never truly appreciate a book or its author until we possess ourselves of the facts he had and then strive, by our own mental powers, to arrive at the same conclusions at which he did. Reading, in addition to furnishing thoughts, will give one an ideal of the proper literary form and thus serve a two-fold purpose. The ability properly to express one's thoughts is an accomplishment of no mean worth and will be found of great value in whatever occupation he may engage. Language is but the garment of thought. Good taste is just as evident in the selection of language as in dress. It is man's nature to wish to communicate his joys and his sorrows to others. His joys are never half so enjoyable as when shared with others, and his sorrows never so heavy and depressing as when borne alone, hidden in the depths of his own heart. So in all his experiences he feels the impulse to communicate them. Language, either written or spoken, is the means by which he makes known his innermost feelings THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 63 and desires, hence we see the value of this practice in express-ing thought. The ability to communicate with others is not restricted to man alone. The lower animals also have some means of communicating with others of their kind, and as we advance in the scale of intelligence and civilization this means of intercourse becomes more perfectly developed. In fact we have come to gauge the degree of the civilization of a people by its literature. In studying the history of the Middle Ages we regard the revival of learning as the chief instrument or agent in dispelling the darkness of ignorance and superstition, and awakening the human mind from its long sleep to witness the dawn of a new day in the world's history. The expression and progress of this intellectual revival is found in the literature of that period. Thus literature is synonymous with enlighten-ment and education. This being true, practice in literary work is a necessity to a liberal education. Exercise in this branch of college work will gain for one the habit of thinking logically and of arranging his thoughts in the most effective manner. It will increase our vocabulary and improve our diction. The reading necessary to this work will enlarge our fund of general information and develop the aesthetic side of our nature. If one attempts to write a descriptive article, the necessity of observing more closely his surroundings will be forcibly impressed upon him—it is truly amazing how little one sees in comparison with what there is to be seen all around him. Thus, looking at the matter from every side, one must be conscious of the great benefits to be derived from this work. It is true that it requires a great deal of time and effort, but the results will prove it to be a profitable investment. Bacon has said, "Reading maketh a full man ; writing an exact man," to which we might add, and together they make a liberally edu-cated man. 64 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. A SOLILOQUY. B. A. STROHMKIER, '06. TEJTAVE you ever been off with a college team— ■^■*- With a basket-ball, base-ball, or football team, When your spirits were high and your heart was light, And your soul bubbled over with hopes all bright? Say, have you? Have you ever thus gone from your college home Like the legions that marched out of ancient Rome, Full of confidence born in a brilliant past, Gone to war with a foeman that stands aghast? Say, have you? Have you entered the land of the foe and felt All at once, at Uncertainty's shrine you knelt, When you heard the wild crowd giving hostile cheers And the young vulgur rabble hurl stinging jeers ? Say, have you? Have you girded your lions for the coming fray Thinking still that your prestige will win the day ? Have you heard the shrill, referee's whistle blow When, relieved, in to conquer or die you go? Say, have you ? Then alas! has your prestige and fame dissolved Like the mist into air by the sun resolved ? Have you lived not to glory, but groan.in pain, While the ignoble foe sings the victor's strain? Well, I have. Of a truth it is bitter to taste defeat; It is sweet to be feared as unconquered, unbeat. But in all the wide world, and in any age Who can find such a one writ on history's page ? Say, can you,? THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 65 When Ambition appeared, then great Caesar fell; It was Carelessness sounded vast Rome's death-knell; And Napoleon met with his Waterloo When he least was afraid. Can it be it's true ? Say, can it ? Then remember the lesson, and hold it tight: It is power not prestige that wins the fight; And defeat now and then is a wholesome thing That conceit, too high flown, back to earth will bring, For a man's but a man, that withal he's done, Though there's many a man thinks he's more than one. Say, do you ? THE YOUNG SINGER. He sang the charge song of the Guard A mad, wild fever seized me. He crooned a mother's cradle-song ; What far fond dreams it weaved me ! With bursts of laughing opera airs Tumultuously he'd wake me; And through a flaunting Gypsy dance His tripping voice would take me. He sang of love, my blood caught fire, For lo ! soft hands caressed me. He sang of death ; a calm cold breath With mystic power oppressed me. He sang, but now his voice is still. Why should his memory grieve me? For in the spirit of his songs He lives, he ne'er shall leave me. —The Monthly Maroon. 66 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE NOVEL. J. EDWARD LOWS, '06. THIS is an age of education, and the present generation is a generation of readers. Illiteracy, at least in the most pro-gressive countries, is no longer the rule, but the exception. Since education has become so general, it is hard to find a man, who has gone beyond the purely elementary stage of mental train-ing, who is not somewhat familiar with the literature of his mother-tongue. There is a class, often referred to as the read-ing public, who compose the material for the newspapers, magazines and books. Since literature is a subject with which so many are inter-ested, it might be proper to inquire what particular branch of literature is the most powerful and far-reaching in its effects. The answer, I think, is not hard to find ; it is the department of prose fiction. It will doubtless be readily considered that the novel is at least the most popular kind of writing. There are reasons for this. For to appreciate poetry properly often requires no small degree of culture, if not, indeed, a special cast of mind. Not every-body enjoys reading history, be it ever so graphi-cally portrayed. There are few who do not enjoy reading a good story and who cannot appreciate, in some degree at least, the work of a master-hand in this department. Who does not follow with breathless interest the vivid narrative of Scott ? Who does not laugh at "Mr. Pickwick," the inimitable creation of Charles Dickens ? Or again the vividly portrayed story of "Rip Van-Winkle," written by Washington Irving? It is safe to say that ten novels are read to every volume of poetry; a hundred to every volume of history. One great reason for the popularity of the modern novel is its realism. It is in this respect that it is so very different from its prototype, the romance of the Middle Ages. The hero of the Medieval romance was generally a king or knight, an impossible creature, who was the very embodiment of virtue and bravery. En- THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 67 chanted castles, witches, ghosts and spectres played a promi-nent part in the plot. These went to make up a story so fan-tastic that it could have appealed to minds only the most imaginative and credulous. The modern novel, on the contrary, is decidedly realistic. "Robinson Crusoe," by some called the first English novel, is so well composed, that it is often hard to convince a boy. who reads Defoe's celebrated story that it is not gospel truth. Every cause can be best judged by the effect it produces and,, judging the influence of some of the world's greatest novels bjr the results they have achieved, it is beyond doubt that they have been most potent factors in the great work of moral re-form, and social progress. It was the publication of Dickens' "Nicholas Nickelby," that opened the eyes of the English people to the abuses existing in the public-school system, and its direct results was a radical change in that system. In "Oliver Twist" the evils in the system of poor-relief were pointed out. We turn to the United States, for the most re-markable effect a novel has ever produced upon the public sentiment. That novel was "Uncle Tom's Cabin," which a prominent Southern writer recently asserted was the cause of the Civil War. This may seem a little far-fetched, but it was at least one of the causes of the awful conflict between the North and the South. It has been predicted by certain writers, that there will come a time when the novel as a form of literature will cease to exist. They think that eventually everything in the form of a plot will have been so completely worked out that the new will be only a repetition of the old. This, it seems to me, is a foolish view. Solomon was doubt-less correct when he said, "There is nothing new under the Sun." But the fact remains that there have always been minds that could present the old in a new and attractive form. When the military hero has ceased to win the admiration of the ap-plauding millions ; when all the world has ceased to love a lover; when, in short, the human mind has lost the faculty of imagination; then, and only then, will the novel cease to live. 68 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. THE RURAL TELEPHONE. BRUCE P. COBAUGH, '05. THE telephone is one of the great factors of modern pro-gress. Now, it is a noticeable fact, and a deplorable one too, that, while miles of telephone lines stretch across the country, the farmer seldom avails himself of the benefits afforded by the telephone. Nor is it wholly through ignorance that he does not do this, for any intelligent man must recognize the usefulness of the 'phone; but the farmer must consider the cost of the telephone service, and in the stock companies the yearly rate is so high that he cannot well afford the expense. What the farmer needs is a line that will connect him with the market, and his neighbors as well, at a moderate expense. The question of the rural telephone has been successfully solved by the mutual company. By this is meant the entire ownership and operation of the line by the subscribers. In order to show that mutual control of a line is practical, the writer will state a few facts concerning a mutual line with which he is familiar. This line has been in operation for several years and has given good satisfaction. The residents of a certain community held several meetings to discuss the necessity of a telephone line. It was agreed that the telephone would be of advantage but that the cost was too great. This was based on the offer of a stock company, which proposed to place 'phones in the homes at a yearly rent of fifteen dollars each. This led to the suggestion of a cheaper method: the mutual control of the line, and accordingly a company of twenty subscribers was organized. The members of the company did as much work as possible in the construc-tion of the line, thereby restricting the cost to the minimum. The line when completed was ten miles long and connected a small town to a larger one. The total cost of construction of the line was twelve hundred dollars, or an average of sixty dollars per member. But new members were added at once and so the cost was lessened THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 69 greatly. Each member paid eighteen dollars in cash and the remainder in yearly payments of six dollars each till the line was paid for. At the end of his payments the subscriber owned a full share in the company and his 'phone as well. The yearly cost of operation was found to be not over two dollars per member. The line has later been extended by con-nection with another mutual line and by a rate free exchange of connection with a good stock company. The necessity of the 'phone is clearly shown by its many advantages. It brings the farmer into close touch with the markets. He can keep track of the fluctuating prices of pro-duce by ringing up his home dealer, for the business men are generally connected with a farmers' line. In this way some men have saved more than the cost of their 'phone. Then the telephone brings the people of a community into close contact. The farmer finds it rather more convenient and more pleasant to sit down to his desk and speak with his neigh-bor than go a mile to borrow an implement only to find it in use. Formerly it was a half-day's work to procure hands for threshing. By use of the 'phone it is done now in an hour. And in procuring assistance for all kinds of work, the 'phone is especially useful to the farmer. But we should not omit the social intercourse which the 'phone affords the farmer's home. This is probably one of the greatest advantages of telephone service. No need of braving a winter storm to inquire about the health of a sick friend. One great advantage is yet to be named : it is the time which the 'phone saves in summoning a physician. All physi-cians within reach of the line are connected with it. In many cases they have arrangements for night calls. The time saved in their arrival may save the-life of many a sufferer. These are only a few of the advantages of the rural telephone. Others could be named which would prove further the profit-able use of the 'phone and the comfort and pleasure as well which it affords the home. The farmer can well consider him-self fortunate in having the 'phone, by it a comparatively isolated life has been socially strengthened through a ready means of intercourse. 7o THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. SHOULD A STUDENT KEEP HIS COLLEGE TEXT BOOKS ? C. EDWIN BUTI,ER, '05. THIS is a question every college man must meet, and that very early in his college course. Comparatively few men go through a course of four years at college without pur-chasing a number of text books. Everyone knows the neces-sity of them for a successful study and research, and if it is so essential to have them during the college life, why should they not be just as necessary afterwards, or what is the reason for parting with them ? There can be only one of two reasons : either the student has no use for them in later life, or the money he gets for them—which is generally a very small sum—is of more value than the books themselves. If it is proven that a student has need, and great need, of his books after he leaves college; and if it is proven that they are of greater value to him than any price he can obtain for them, then is it not clear that a student should keep his college text books ? It is the prevailing custom of the human race to have friends. Each person, no matter of what degree or station in life, enjoys the companionship of certain friends. Whether he be a doc-tor, minister, statesman, or common day-laborer, they are as necessary to his peace of mind and contentment as food and clothes are for the body. And what are books to the student, but friends? They help him over the rough places in his course and stand by him in all his need and labors. What he does not know they tell him. When he chances to go astray, they put him on the correct path. Verily, they are friends indeed as well as friends in his need. At least it does one a great deal of good to think of them as such. While seated in the class room many little notes and marks are made in those books that in later years are found to be a source of fond recollections. The memory of them will float through the mind as sweet incense. Hence they would be THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. n worth the keeping for old times' sake, if there were nothing else to enhance their value. It matters not into what profession you enter, your college text books will prove themselves friends to you at many times. You will have need of them. Being thoroughly acquainted with their contents you can very readily turn to any subject which may have escaped your memory and refresh yourself in half the time and with thrice the ease you would find by con-sulting any other book. And back of it all, you have the authority which you have been prepared so well to defend dur-ing all your college course. The cost of college books now compared with former days is so small that the student of moderate means finds it within his power to retain them even for his whole life and then hand them down to his children, from whom they could not be pur-chased for ten times their value. When you purchase your text books you pay full value for them, and if you sell them to another student, you cannot receive more than that, and gener-ally but half as much. ' They have become endeared to you by frequent use, and like old friends you dislike parting with them. The price you paid for them is incomparable with the value of them to you now. Even should you never have any cause to use them, are not the recollections they recall worth the cost? Any man who should dare to insult you by offering to buy your friends would receive a blow from you that would com-pensate him in full for his audacity. Why then should any college man misusing or offering you a mean price for your books not receive as much or more? Fellow-students, keep your text books ! Under no circum-stances barter them away for a mess of potage. They will prove a monument of pleasure more enduring than brass and which the countless succession of years cannot wear away. You will love them in later years as you do no other books, and curse the hand that dares to misuse them. Honor your college career, your library, and your home, and take with you the joy and comfort of your old age, which may be found in your books, and which treasures should not purchase from you. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY Entered at the Postoffi.ce at Gettysburg as second-class matter Voi,. XII GETTYSBURG, PA., APRIL, 1903 No. 2 Editor-in-ch ief LYMAN A. GUSS, '04 Exchange Editor M. ROY HAMSHER, '04 Business Manager F. GARMAN MASTERS, '04 Asst. Business Manager A. L. DIHENBECK, '05 Associate Editors M. ADA MCLINN, '04 BRUCE P. COBAUGH, '05 C. EDWIN BUTTER, '05 Advisory Board PROF. J. A. HIMES, LITT. D. PROF. G. D. STAHI,EY, M.D. PROF. J. W. RICHARD, D.D. Published each month, from October to June inclusive, by the joint literary societies of Pennsylvania (Gettysburg) College. Subscription price, one dollar a year in advance; single copies 15 cents. Notice to discontinue sending the MERCURY to any address must be accompanied by all arrearages. Students, Professors and Alumni are cordially invited to contribute. All subscriptions and business matter should be addressed to the Busi-ness Manager. Articles for publication shoidd be addressed to the Editor. Address THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY, GETTYSBURG, PA. ■ THE REASON WHY EDITORIALS. Scientists tell us that in this world of ours all is strife. Of all the forces in the universe every one is antagonistic to every other. The domin-ating and controling are eternally being opposed by the minor and subordinate. All is constant strain. In the physical world the animating energies of nature are continually work-ing counter to one another. Although there is interpenetration yet there is resistance. In the lowest forms of life, in the smallest microcosms, there is unrelenting conflict. In a higher grade we find the same warfare exemplified in the continued existence of the most capable. Finally the antagonism finds its culmination in the great struggle for existence common to the race. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 73 Even as this is the climax, so it is likewise the point of demarcation. Success now crowns the efforts of the strong ; failure those of the weak. Success! That for which all men hope. Strength ! The means by which they attain it. The latter is the cause, the former the effect. The inference is ready. The effect is the necessary consequential of the cause, but let it not be supposed that the strength incident to success is that typical of a Cyclops, or that symbolic of a Hercules. Rather it is that kind which has been evinced by the master-minds of all ages—intellectual strength. And this is the reason why men go to college ; to attain intellectual power, to cultivate brain-energy, to discipline mental vigor, to learn to appreciate the good, the beautiful and the true, to exalt their being in every way tending to symmet-rical development and, in short, to bring out all that is worth the effort in self. But too often, alas, do college men fail to realize the vitality of their situation; they neglect to seize circumstance and to clinch with time, pregnant with the possibilities of future great-ness. Too frequently is the collegiate life considered one of imposing task work, a mighty preponderance of labor over-shadowing the student. Hence his constant aim is to elimin-ate it, not by conquering it, in which case the law of compen-sation yields ready returns, but by shirking it, whence comes only a void which the craving of later years will seek in vain to satisfy. Instead of surmounting obstacles he shuns them, instead of trodding boldly over the rocky places he rides over them, while his companion plods. But the tortoise beat the hare at the finish. This is the reason why some college men are, and forever will be, in the great but glorious struggle for existence. Their lot must ever be commonplace. They can-not rise above the common level of humanity. The scholar must overcome, not surrender, must conquer, not submit, and must take advantage of all advantages. As Winter, with his cold and stormy winds takes his departure, Spring appears before us in all the beauty of awakening life, and if there is one place especially favored with a beautiful Spring-time it OPPORTUNITIES OF SPRING. 74 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. is the country surrounding Gettysburg. Not only do the climate and natural contour of the country with its hills, woods and creeks make it pleasing, but the avenues over the battle-field furnish ideal walks for recreation hours. For the lover of natural scenery this country furnishes a magnificent prospect with charming color effects. To the botanist it gives a most varied flora. The country is also full of birds. Many rare kinds may be found by the close observer. One of the stu-dents has counted thirty different kinds of birds from his win-dow already this Spring. For the student of geology the land formations will repay any attention given them. And if one unfortunately should have no taste for any of these things he can at least study the history of his country in the many mon-uments and tablets erected over the battlefield. Rarely does one find a place so inviting to the man who wishes to increase his store of general knowledge; and these delightful spring days furnish time to make use of the opportunities. Instead of a spring fever that gives one a desire to loaf and neglect all his work let him contract a fever for making use of what Gettysburg and her surroundings offer him in the above men-tioned lines. THE TRUTH FOR In all colleges there exists a spirit of mis- ITS OWN SAKE, chief and diablerie. No college is without it; none can be without it. It is peculiar to the college world. As such it can scarcely be called an infection, yet it is in the atmosphere, and may be said to be an all-pervading character-istic of every collegiate community. The infusion of this unavoidable, yet not always desirable, element in the student body often finds its manifestation in some overt acts on behalf of its most arduous enthusiasts, rang-ing even from the quite insignificant to the violent, but for the most part in our own college this diablery has existed only in a dormant state, and its most ostentatious expression has been, excepting extremely rare cases, of a mediocre kind. Therefore, when in its mild form it so impels a few students to commit a mischievious act of harmless and unimportant con-sequences, resulting in nothing but a slight inconvenience to THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 75 the usual routine of college affairs, why should it be enlarged upon to such proportions and amplified to such an enormity as was the case in the recent chapel disorder? Such misstatements as appeared rife and rank in the city papers a few days ago cannot help but redound to the degredation of the good name of the college. May not our reporters be more considerate in noting details? May we not have more of the truth for its own sake ? ALUMNI REUNIONS. As the spring term opens we gradually be-come aware of the approaching end of the collegiate year. Then naturally our minds turn to the events which always take place at such time and the abundance of pleasure derived from their occurrence. In other words, we begin to think about commencement and its attendant circum-stances. This time is undoubtedly the most enjoyable time of the year, but its success is only made possible by the presence of the students, in the first case, and by the alumni, in no less degree, in the second. One of the best means perhaps of per-suading the congregation of a large -number of alumni is by class reunions. The class spirit never dies out in the breast of the college man, and if he can come to his alma mater with the expectation of meeting old-time friends and class-mates, the chances of his coming, no doubt, will be greatly enhanced. The class spirit, redoubled by the college spirit, would certainly act as a powerful stimulus or persuasion in inducing the alum-nus to visit the scene of his college days. It is to be hoped that we may have several class reunions at least during the coming commencement week. Now is the time to arrange for them. EXCHANGES. The editor of the average college literary monthly is usually at a loss for material to make the magazine truly interest-ing to all its readers. Several of our exchanges seem to have struck the proper means of awaking interest, in publishing 76 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. articles on travel and foreign lands, written by recent graduates. "Random Sketches" in The Otterbein Aegis was written by an alumnus travelling in Europe. The Swarthmore Phoenix contains an article on "A Journey to the Second Cataract of the Nile" and another on "University Life Abroad," written by a graduate of Swarthmore, who had taken a course in the Ger-man Universities. Such contributions certainly add to the in-terest and value of a college monthly. There is the danger, however, that the true object of a college paper, which con-sists in securing literary contributions from the students, may thereby be neglected or forgotten. The Pharetra comes out in a very pretty blue and white dress with the representation of a demure college maiden on its cover page. We find several delightful storiettes in the last number; and may say that the paper is characterized by a general tone of pleasantness rather than by any philosophic traits. "Tell a tale of troubles March wind and April rain, Second term has ended Marks are here again— Sing a song of quizzes, Are we to take them all? Reports they'll soon be reading, How great may be the fall!" —Maryland Collegian, The Mountaineer has again devoted the greater part of her exchange column to a pleasant criticism of our former editor. We agree with one of our exchanges in saying that our col-league of Mt. St. Mary's should not have blamed the MERCURY representative for words that were not his; and that he should reconcile his preaching with his practice. We sincerely hope that our "smoky" (?) article will cease to inflame the wrath of our neighbor. May we add our regrets that The Mountaineer of last month has not arrived in time to be reviewed. Among the influences that tend to corrupt our speech there is none more pernicious than the play upon words. It is with THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 77 some surprise then, that we find an article entitled "A Defense of Shakespeare," in one of the college papers, which ends with the following paragraphs : "In the second place, why should anyone who loved the name of BACON SO lose all sense of his own dignity and all respect for his own good name as to give a play of "his own make" by the name of "Ham-let." "Now I hope I have made myself clear and vindicated my client. If I have not, this has been 'Love's Labor Lost'— yea, even more ! it has been 'Much Ado About Nothing.' This, however, is a serious matter; it is no 'MidsummerNight's Dream' but a plain 'Winter's Tale.' Take it ^As You Like It' but remember All's Well That End's Well.' " EASTER LILIES. Sweet emblems of a purity unknown to earth, They wake the soul of man to aspirations fair, And fill the palace—aye, the cot of meanest worth— With fragrance like the incense of an angel's prayer. So fragile all, so weak, they seem a tempting prey To every hostile gale—each hand untaught of ruth; But ah ! the spoiler e'en should know that in the day That beauty dies, the world must die to love and truth. Fit consorts these of faith and prayer and holy praise; Mute worshippers and witnesses of Him above, Whose skill can wed to matchless glory simplest grace, And veil in wondrous art the mysteries of love. —University of Va. Magazine. The Monthly Maroon has a poem to Robert Louis Stevenson as its frontispiece. One of the best features of this number is the well-written paper on Stevenson, depicting the life and character of this Scottish author. "Unto the End" is a beau-tiful story; the author portrays an ideal love which seems none the less real for its beauty. Some of the shorter stories are of a bravado character, but "The Cub-Errant" depicts a phase of college life seldom represented. 78 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. Quite a number of the exchanges this month contain "Char-acter Sketches" of different great men or characters in fiction. We refer the reader particularly to "Francis Parkman : a Study-in Success," in the Nassau Literary Magazine ; and "Mr. Jack Hamlin," a study of one of Bret Harte's heroes in the College Student. This is a most commendable kind of essay-writing, and every student should try his ability along this line. The Medico-Chirurgical College of Philadelphia, DEPARTMENT OF MEDICINE Offers exceptional facilities to graduates of Gettysburg College, especially to those who have taken a medical preparatory or biological course. The instruction is thoroughly practical, particular attention being given to laboratory work and bed-side and ward-class teaching. Ward-classes are limited in size. A modified seminar method is a special feature of the Course. Free quizzing in all branches by the Professors and a special staff of Tutors. The College has also a Department of Dentistry and a Department of Pharmacy. All Gettysburg College students are cordially invited to inspect the College and Clinical Amphitheatre at any time. For announcements or information apply to SENECA EGBERT, Dean of the Department of Medicine, 17th & Cherry Streets, PHILADELPHIA, PA. tfrjp, \\ \ Co. 140-144 Woodward Avenue, DETROIT, MICH. Send for Catalogue and Price List- Special Designs on Application, Manufacturers of high grade Fraternity Emblems Fraternity Jewelry Fraternity Novelties Fraternity Stationery Fraternity Invitations Fraternity Announcements Fraternity Programs PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. ^m«*mw«««w*«»mw*««««w«m«*«w««««« AMOS ECKERT Latest Styles in HATS, SHOES AND GENT'S FURNISHING .Our specialty. WALK-OVER SHOE AMOS ECKERT Prices always right The Lutheran puMigfjing {louse. No. 1424 Arch Street PHILADELPHIA, PA. Acknowledged Headquarters for anything and everything in the way of Books for Churches, Col-leges, Families and Schools, and literature for Sunday Schools. PLEASE REMEMBER That by sending your orders to us you help build up and devel-op one of the church institutions with pecuniary advantage to yourself. Address H. S. BONER, Supt. FAVOR THOSE WHO FAVOR US. E.C.TAWNEY Is ready to furnish Clubs and Boarding Houses with . Bread, Rolls, Etc., At short notice and reason-able rates. Washington & Middle Sts., Gettysburg. Shoes J^epaifed J. H- BAKER, 115 Baltimore St. near Court House. Good Work Guaranteed. J. W. BUMBAUGH'S City Cafe and Dining Room Meals and lunches served at short notice. Fresh pies and sandwiches always on hand. Oysters furnished all year. 53 Chambersburg' St. mm mmm m m. 3 :V\= :**: :\*= A*= A*: - : -\\= A\= A^ -V*: =VX= I U-PI-DKE. A new Co-cd has alighted in town, U-pi-dee, U-pi-da! In an up-to-datest tailor-made gown.,U-pi-de-i-cla ! The boys are wild, and prex is, too, You never saw such a hulla-ba-loo. C HOKUS. — U-pi-dee-i-dee-i-da! etc. Her voice is clear as a soaring lark's, And her wit is like those trolley-car sparks ! When 'cross a muddy street she flits, The boys all have conniption fits 1 The turn of her head turns all ours, ton. There's always a strife to sit in her pew; 'Tis enough to make a parson drunk, To hear her sing old co-ca-che-lunk ! M The above, and three other NEW verses to U-PI-DEE, Cl/fl antl NEW WORDS, catchy, uo-to-date, to many Tl others of the popular OLD FAMILIAR TUNES; be- Ph> sides OLD FAVORITES ;nnd also many NEW SONGS. fTff SONGS OF ALL THE COLLEGES. jfbji Copjriciit. Price, $r.jo, postpaid. IPOO. ULU HINDS & NOBLE, Publishers, New York City. ! ff ff Schoolbooks of all publishers at one store. } n*pv7 r«z A*: **= Act= :\*r :**= z\^= =«r =**=^A\= r _C^_JC^ JC J^ _c _e^ _c^ i m PI mm PI PI mmm PI 50 YEARS' EXPERIENCE TRADE MARKS DESIGNS COPYRIGHTS AC. 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Gabrielle Hecht on Nuclear Ontologies, De-provincializing the Cold War, and Postcolonial Technopolitics
This is the fourth in a series of Talks dedicated to the technopolitics of International Relations, linked to the forthcoming double volume 'The Global Politics of Science and Technology' edited by Maximilian Mayer, Mariana Carpes, and Ruth Knoblich
Nuclear power has formed a centerpiece of Cold-War IR theorizing. Yet besides the ways in which its destructive capacity invalidates or alters the way we should understand questions of war and peace, there are different powers at play in the roles the nuclear assumes in global politics. Through careful investigations of alternative sites and spaces of nuclear politics, Gabrielle Hecht has uncovered some of the unexpected ways in which what one can call the 'nuclear condition' affects politics across the globe. In this Talk, Hecht, amongst others, explores what it means to 'be nuclear'; explains how we need to deprovincialize the Cold War to fully grasp its significance in global politics; and challenges us to explore technopolitics outside of the comfortable context of OECD-countries.
Print version of this Talk (pdf)
What is according to your view the most important challenge facing global politics and what is/should be the central debate in the discipline of International Relations (IR)?
I think one of the most important challenges in global politics is the question of planetary boundaries. In the 1970s the Club of Rome published the report 'the Limits to Growth' (read PDF here), which addressed the finite quality of the planet's resources. It exposed the problems that the ideology (and practice) of endless economic growth posed for these limits. The question of climate change today really is all about planetary boundaries. We have already exceeded the CO2 level that is safe for the planet to sustain human life: We have just passed 400 parts per million; the desirable level is rated at 350 parts per million; the pre-industrial level of CO2 was 270 parts per million. So we have already produced more CO2 than is sustainable. And that is just one indicator. There are all kinds of other planetary boundaries at play—energy supply being the most salient one in terms of climate change. How can we even produce enough energy to maintain the lifestyles of the industrialized north? What about the requirements of the so-called 'rest'?
Obviously this is a huge issue and there are many parts to it. One part of this—the piece that I have studied the most—is nuclear power. Many people are enthusiastic about nuclear power as a solution to climate change. Some prominent environmentalists have been converted, because they believe nuclear power offers a way to produce a large amount of energy with a very small amount of matter, and because they see it as carbon free. (That's pretty clearly not the case, by the way, though nuclear power certainly produces less carbon than fossil fuels.) But are the human health and environmental costs worth the savings in carbon? Do the resources poured into nuclear power—some are predicting a thousand new reactors in the next few decades—take away resources from other forms of energy production, forms that could potentially address the emissions problems more rapidly and with lower costs for the environment and for human health? Moreover, nuclear power in any one location ends up becoming a global issue. So in that sense nuclear power in China, in India or in Japan is inherently a global problem. And the industry everywhere certainly needs global regulation—at the moment, there is none. The International Atomic Energy Agency is not a regulator. These are serious questions for international relations, and should be fodder for analysis.
One can obviously put this into perspective by comparing the death toll from nuclear power with that related to coal—would one then actually have to be against the use of coal? The numbers of coal-related deaths are astonishing. But the first, most obvious point to make is that being against coal doesn't require being in favor of nuclear power! It's also extremely important to realize that death and morbidity figures for nuclear power are highly contested. Take the figures concerning Chernobyl. The IAEA and WHO put Chernobyl deaths at 4,000. A study published by National Cancer Institute in the United States puts the deaths at something like 43,000. A meta-analysis of 5,000 Slavic language scientific studies estimates the total number of Chernobyl deaths (some of which are yet to come) at 900,000. These discrepancies have a lot to do with controversies over the biological effects of low-level radiation, and also with the technopolitics of measurement and counting. Comparing the two energy technologies is much more complicated than merely counting coal deaths vs. nuclear power deaths.
How did arrive where you currently are in your thinking about these issues?
Actually, the real question is how I came to study politics. I got my bachelor's degree in physics from MIT in the 1980s. The two biggest political issues on campus at that time were Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative and Apartheid in South Africa (specifically, a move to divest American corporate interests in South Africa, the very corporations that were funding MIT research and for which MIT students would work when they graduated). I got interested in both, and along the way I came to realize that I was much more interested in the politics of science and technology than I was in actually doing physics. So I took some courses in the field of science and technology studies (STS), and decided to attend graduate school in the history and sociology of science and technology.
I had also always had a morbid fascination with nuclear weapons. I'd read a lot of post-apocalyptic science fiction when I was a teenager. All of these things came together for me in graduate school. I first hoped to study the history of Soviet nuclear weapons but quickly realized that would be impossible for all kinds of reasons. I ended up studying French nuclear power after I realized that nobody had researched it in the ways that interested me. I had lived in France in the 1970s, when the nuclear power program was undergoing rapid expansion. So it was a good fit. After I was done with that project, I became interested in rethinking the so-called nuclear age from a colonial and post-colonial perspective.
What would a student need to become a specialist in global studies or understand the world in a global way?
Travel, learn languages. Remain attentive to—and critical of—the political work done by claims to 'global' purview. Learn history—you won't understand international relations in any depth at all if you remain rooted in the present.
Then, for those want to start exploring the global politics of science and technology, two books come immediately to mind. Timothy Mitchell's (Theory Talk #59) Carbon Democracy, on the global technopolitics of fossil fuels. And Paul Edwards's A Vast Machine, on the relationship between data and models in the production of knowledge about climate change. Both are must-reads.
The world is permeated with technological artifacts and systems—in what ways is this relevant for approaches to global politics? Where is the conceptual place for technologies within IR?
First, I should make clear that I am not an IR specialist.
That said, I think it does not make sense to think about international relations (lower case) without thinking about the technologies, systems, and infrastructures that make any kind of global movement possible. The flows of people, of products, of culture, political exchanges—these are all mediated through and practiced in the technological systems that permeate our globe. So are the interruptions and absences in such 'flows'. I draw attention to the specific political practices that are enacted through technological systems with the notion of technopolitics. I initially used this concept in my work on nuclear power in France to capture the ways in which hybrid forms of power are enacted in technological artifacts, systems and practices. There I used the term in a rather narrow sense to talk about the strategic practices of designing technologies to enact political goals. My paramount example was that of the French atomic weapons program. In the early 1950s, France's political leaders insisted that France would never build atomic weapons. But engineers and other leaders in the nascent nuclear program were designing reactors in a way that optimized the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than electricity. When politicians finally signed on, the technology was ready to go. This example problematizes the very notion of a 'political decision'. Instead of a single, discursive decision, we see a complex process whereby political choices are inscribed into technologies, which subsequently favor certain political outcomes over others.
In this example, both engineers and politicians consciously engaged in technopolitics. By contrast, Timothy Mitchell has used the hyphenated term 'techno-politics' to emphasize the unpredictable and unintended effects of technological assemblages. Over the last fifteen years, I have also developed a broader notion of the term, particularly in its adjectival form, 'technopolitical'. I find this to be a useful shorthand for describing both how politics can be strategically enacted through technological systems, and also how technological systems can be re-appropriated for political ends in ways that were unintended by their designers. The point, really, is to highlight the myriad politics of materiality.
Do the particular characteristics of nuclear technologies and related research programs make it impossible to apply the lenses of 'high politics'?
I think a high-politics approach to understanding nuclear weapons decision-making is extremely impoverished. It's not that there aren't high politics, of course there are. But they cannot offer a sufficient or straightforward explanation for how or why any one particular country develops a nuclear program. A focus on high politics implies a focus decision makers and moments. But that's really misleading. In pretty much every case, the apparent 'moment' of decision is in fact a long process involving a tremendous amount of technopolitical, cultural, and institutional work, rife with conflicts and contingencies of all kinds. I think a more productive approach is to try to understand nuclear capacity-building.
Itty Abraham has done some fantastic work on India's nuclear program, which helps us think about other cases as well. For example, he analyzes the symbolic importance of the nuclear test, noting that IR uses 'the test' as kind of 'aha!' moment, the moment in which one knows that a country has nuclear weapons. Instead, Abraham sees the test as a process for the cultural production of meaning: a process in which certain meanings get fixed, but by no means the most important moment for understanding the actual technology and politics behind the production of nuclear weapons.
Your book Entangled Geographies (2011) explores a plethora of places, people, and technical networks that sustained the US and Soviet empires. Here, as in Being Nuclear (2012), you insist on investigating the Cold War as transnational history. What difference does this move make?
In Entangled Geographies, my colleagues and I build on the work of Odd Arne Westad, whose book The Global Cold War was an argument for understanding the non-superpower, non-European dimensions of the Cold War. We give that a technopolitical spin, which offers a de-provincializing of the Cold War that's complementary to Westad's. By focusing on places like Saudi Arabia, or Zimbabwe, or Brazil, or South Africa, we show how even the central struggles of the Cold War were intimately bound up in 'northern' relationships to colonial and post-colonial worlds, and in the imaginaries that characterized those relationships.
In Being Nuclear I focus on uranium from Africa—more specifically South Africa, Namibia, Gabon, Madagascar, and Niger. Uranium from Africa has long been a major source of fuel for nuclear power and atomic weapons, including the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, but it has been almost completely absent from accounts of the nuclear age, whether scholarly or popular. This changed in 2002, when the US and British governments claimed that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein 'sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa' (later specified as the infamous 'yellowcake from Niger'). Africa suddenly became notorious as a source of uranium. But that did not admit Niger, or any of Africa's other uranium-producing countries, to the select society of nuclear states. Nor did it mean that uranium itself counted as a nuclear thing. My book explores what it means for something—a state, an object, an industry, a workplace—to be 'nuclear'. I show that such questions lie at the heart of today's global order and the relationships between 'developing nations' and 'nuclear powers'.
Being Nuclear argues that 'nuclearity' is not a straightforward scientific classification but a contested technopolitical one. In the first part of the book, I follow uranium's path out of Africa and analyze the invention of the global uranium market. In the second part, I enter African nuclear worlds, focusing on miners and the occupational hazard of radiation exposure. In both parts, I show that nuclearity requires instruments and data, technological systems and infrastructures, national agencies and international organizations, experts and conferences, and journals and media exposure. When (and where) nuclearity is densely distributed among these elements, it can offer a means of claiming expertise, compensation, or citizenship. It can serve as a framework for making sense of history, experience, and memory. When (and where) network elements are absent, weak, or poorly connected, nuclearity falters, fades, or disappears altogether, failing to provide a resource for people claiming remediation or treatment. Nuclearity in one register doesn't easily transpose to another: geopolitical nuclearity doesn't automatically translate into occupational nuclearity. Yet these domains remain connected. African uranium miners depend on the transnational movement of nuclear things, but that movement also depends on African miners. Ultimately, I conclude, nuclear security must be considered in tandem with other forms of human security—food and health and environmental and political security. By placing Africa in the nuclear world, and the nuclear world in Africa, the book seeks to remake our understanding of the nuclear age.
I should note that it's not only uranium production that connects the colonial and postcolonial spaces with nuclear things. (Also: African countries weren't the only such places where uranium was produced. Much of the rest of the world's uranium came from the Navajo nation in the United States, Aboriginal territories in Australia, First Nation territories in Canada, colonized spaces in the Soviet Empire, etc.) French nuclear weapons were tested in the Algerian desert and French Polynesia; the United States tested its weapons on the Bikini Islands; Britain tested its weapons in Maralinga, in Aboriginal Australia; the Soviet Union tested its weapons on the planes of Kazakhstan. And so on.
So, understanding the history of the Cold War—even its most iconic technology, nuclear weapons—as a form of transnational history really calls attention to spaces that have previously been considered marginal, even perhaps not fully nuclear. Ultimately, it should provoke us to problematize 'the Cold War' as a frame for global or transnational history (and social science).
Looking at those colonized and semi-colonized spaces of mining, testing and monitoring infrastructures gives us not necessarily an answer to the question of why the Cold War ended, but it does enable you to ask different and possibly more interesting questions. It can lead you, for example, to place the Cold War within the framework of imperialism (rather than the other way around). A longer historical view questions whether the Cold War really represents historical rupture. What political work is done by such claims to rupture? How does that work differ in different places? What are its material consequences?
Why are science and technology hardly ever studied in the postcolonial world from a STS perspective?
I think there are a number of reasons why STS has paid relatively little attention to the postcolonial world. One is that in STS—like many disciplines—the prestige of the subject matter maps onto the prestige of the researcher. So STS researchers who study cutting-edge science or large-scale technological systems seem somehow to be getting at 'harder' topics, ones that that focus on active creation. Engineering and other acts of creation appear more prestigious than acts of maintenance, or acts of dismantling. Even studying small-scale creation seems to confer more prestige than studying mundane practices. This brings us back to the theme of rupture vs. continuity: studying or proclaiming rupture seems somehow sexier—and certainly more radical—than studying continuity.
Another, more trivial answer is just that most STS researchers so far have come from Europe and North America, and they tend not to be trained in area studies.
Does the constant ontological insecurity of nuclear things mean that the 'nuclear' is purely a matter of social and political construction?
No, definitely not. But I think to explain what I mean by all this we should take a few steps back and start with what I like to call nuclear exceptionalism. This is a technopolitical claim—emerging immediately after the end of World War II—that there was something radically unique about nuclear things. From 1945 onward, both cold warriors and their activist opponents cultivated this nuclear exceptionalism. Atomic weapons were portrayed as fundamentally different from any other human creation. The bomb was the ultimate geopolitical trump card, and it was imagined as replacing empire in one fell swoop. You see nuclear scientists and engineers gaining prestige, power, and funding far beyond their colleagues in conventional research. In the meantime, anti-nuclear groups make their own claims to exceptionalism by talking about the unprecedented dangers posed by nuclear things. Everywhere you see nuclearity and morality intertwined. Nuclear things either represent salvation or moral depravity… or the apocalyptic end of mankind. But regardless of where you stood politically, this notion of nuclear exceptionalism rested on the sense that the difference between nuclear and non-nuclear things was transparent---ultimately a clear-cut, physical matter of radioactivity.
The nuclear thus emerges not just as a category, but also as a universal and universalizing ontology, one that seems to apply in the same way all over the globe. And frankly, historians, political scientists, anthropologists, and sociologists have reproduced that nuclear exceptionalism. (I did it myself in my first book, The Radiance of France.)
All of which has made it hard to see that what I call nuclearity—the process by which something comes to count as a "nuclear" thing – has a history, a politics, and a geography. Things that count as nuclear in one time and place might not count as nuclear at another. Rendering something as nuclear and exceptional is a form of technopolitical claims-making. It follows that insisting that certain things are not especially nuclear, or that they are banal, is also a form of technopolitical claims-making.
You can see this in the response of the nuclear industry to activist opponents. In the late 1960s and over the course of the 1970s, the nuclear industry began to represent nuclear power not as a life-saving technology for the human race, but as simply another way to boil water. Radiation was just another industrial risk. Such representations seek to banalize nuclear things.
Nuclearity could thus get made, unmade and remade. My favorite example comes from a 1995 US government report on nuclear proliferation. The appendix has a table that summarizes the nuclear activities of 172 nations. Neither Gabon, nor Niger, nor Namibia are listed as having any nuclear activities, despite the fact that those nations together, during that very year, produced something like 25% of the world's uranium. So when does uranium count as a nuclear thing? When does it lose its nuclearity? And what does Africa have to do with it?
The argument is not that radioactivity doesn't have to do anything with nuclearity, or that nuclearity has nothing to do with the technologies and physical processes we typically associate with the word. Rather, I argue that nuclearity is one thing, and radioactivity and fission are another; sometimes they are co-terminus, but not always and not necessarily. Understanding where (and why) they don't map onto each other is politically revealing.
Which kind of interdisciplinary exchanges do we need between your discipline and IR to deepen our understanding of global technopolitics?
Science and technology studies (STS) is really good at exploring practice, and especially at calling attention to the differences between principles and practice—for example, between regulation on the one hand, and the actual practices that regulations are meant to control (without ever entirely succeeding). STS can bring to IR an understanding of how the intimate details of practice matter politically—of how everyday technopolitical and techno-scientific exchanges can be more important loci for politics than treaties, diplomacy, and other forms of what you called high politics.
I can also answer this question wearing my historian's hat. The IR scholarship on nuclear weapons that I'm familiar with (and again, I'm not an expert!) seems to be quite focused on producing models—on using history to produce predictive models that will in turn serve to shape international policy on nuclear weapons regulation. But if history tells us one thing, it is that models are basically useless for understanding how countries develop nuclear weapons. Instead, history and STS both teach us about which questions to ask (in this instance, about nuclear development). Identifying the important questions—rather than prescribing the applicable model—leaves open the list of possible answers. It also leaves open solutions and policies, letting us be more attentive to the specificities and uniqueness of individual cases.
Final question. Let's take the example of Iran's nuclear program. What alternative question about the issue would lenses of nuclear exceptionalism bring us?
Nuclear technology has played an important role in shaping modern Iranian national identity. This began in the 1970s under the Shah, who – with the support of the US – developed a grandiose plan to build a fleet of nuclear reactors. It took a different turn after the 1979 Iranian revolution. For a while, the new regime sidelined the nuclear program as an unwelcome manifestation of western corruption. But after a few years leaders reappropriated nuclear development and sought to invest it with Iranian-ness. The dynamics of nuclear exceptionalism have operated in Iran much the same way they did in France and in South Africa. Nuclear exceptionalism has served to give material form to national identity. And materialized national identity is most emphatically not something that you can negotiate away in the P5+1 talks.
Gabrielle Hecht is Professor of History at the University of Michigan, where she also directs the Program in Science, Technology, and Society and serves as associate director of the African Studies Center. She recently published Being Nuclear: Africans and the Global Uranium Trade (MIT Press and Wits University Press, 2012), which has received awards from the American Historical Association and the American Sociological Association, as well as the 2013 Susanne M. Glasscock Humanities Book Prize and Honorable Mention for the African Studies Association's 2013 Herskovits Award. She is also the author of The Radiance of France: Nuclear Power and National Identity after World War II (MIT Press 1998 & 2009) and editor of Entangled Geographies: Empire and Technopolitics in the Global Cold War, editor (MIT Press, 2011). Hecht is embarking on a new book project on technology and power in Africa, as well as new research on transnational toxic trash. She has held visiting positions at universities in Australia, France, Norway, South Africa, and Sweden.
Related links
Hecht's faculty profile at the University of Michigan Read Hecht's Introduction to Entangled Geographies (MIT Press 2011) here (pdf) Read Hecht's The Power of Nuclear Things (Technology & Culture 2010) here (pdf) Read Hecht's Nuclear Ontologies (Constellations 2006) here (pdf) Read Hecht's Rupture-Talk in the Nuclear Age (Social Studies of Science 2002) here (pdf)
Print version of this Talk (pdf)
0 0 1 3775 21518 School of Global Studies/University of Gothenburg 179 50 25243 14.0
The laws of history are as absolute as the laws of physics, and if the probabilities of error are greater, it is only because history does not deal with as many humans as physics does atoms, so that individual variations count for more. — Isaac Asimov, Foundation and Empire From a certain point onward there is no longer any turning back. That is the point that must be reached. — Franz Kafka, The Trial INTRODUCTION How ought we characterise the exercise of power in our societies? Are they societies that confine and discipline our bodies, or ones that control us in potentially subtler ways? This article adopts the framework for analysis used by twentieth century French philosopher Gilles Deleuze in his short but defining essay on the subject, 'Postscript on Societies of Control'.[1] It firstly considers the background to the concept of control, then provides a definition of the concept, and, finally, asks whether our society is one of control. It argues that Deleuze is correct to say control has replaced discipline as the primary mechanism of power in our era. ORTHODOXY In order to address the question of whether societies of control are increasingly replacing disciplinary societies, it is imperative first to understand what disciplinary societies are. Discipline is a concept developed most powerfully by Deleuze's contemporary, Michel Foucault.[2] Foucault's philosophy primarily concerns the technologies of power operating within society and their effect on human autonomy. He pursues this study via a genealogical approach; that is, he employs a historical critique to interrogate the workings of powers at play in modern society. In this way—despite his vocal opposition to Hegel—Foucault is very much Hegelian in his belief that close examination of historical parallels and events can clarify and deepen our understanding of present-day technologies of power and how they shape or restrict our autonomy.[3] Through his historical work, which spans various societal and public institutions, Foucault identifies a fundamental change in the mechanisms of power exercised by the state in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. He articulates this shift as a transition away from sovereign power to technologies of discipline. This notion of discipline and disciplinary society is perhaps best exemplified by Foucault's enquiry into the French penal system in his Discipline and Punish.[4] The book opens with vivid depictions of public torture and execution in pre-eighteenth century France. Foucault explains that the physicality and the public nature of punishment in the French criminal system up until then was an essential aspect of the exercise of sovereign power. Yet, while brutal public spectacle instilled fear and awe, it also provided public fora for communities to revolt against the perceived injustices of the sovereign. By moderating power through the benevolent reform of the criminal, by the discipline of the docile body, and by the fragmentation of public space into discrete, segregated institutions, state power could be obscured and, thus, maintained. These forces are the hallmarks of a disciplinary society. REVISION In his 'Postscript', Deleuze—building on the work of Foucault—argues that the twentieth century has marked a shift from disciplinary societies to societies of control. A precise definition of control and societies of control has proven to be elusive;[5] it is therefore helpful to consider both the antecedents and critiques of Deleuze's analysis in addition to his work itself.[6] Antecedents Deleuze has attributed the concept of control to William Burroughs.[7] Burroughs, in turn, provides not a definition of control, but brief observations as to its exercise; in truth, his analogies are of only limited assistance when read in the context of mechanisms of power within society at large.[8] Nevertheless, there are two salient points to note. Firstly, Burroughs establishes that when one maintains total or absolute power over the actions of another, they can more accurately be said to be using them rather than controlling them. Secondly, Burroughs shows that control requires concessions and illusions: controllers must make concessions to the controlled in order to maintain the illusion of choice and free agreement, obscuring their true motives in order to avoid revolt. In contrast to Burroughs, Félix Guattari provides an analogy of control that usefully supports the conception Deleuze comes to advance: the gated home and community accessed and exited via electronic cards.[9] This has elements of discipline, as movement being granted or denied constitutes a form of confinement. But, as Deleuze argues, it also represents a departure from the disciplinary society, as 'what counts is not the barrier but the computer that tracks each person's position […] and effects a universal modulation'.[10] Among his identified influences, Deleuze contends that Foucault sees as 'our immediate future' societies of control.[11] Deleuze particularly emphasises that Foucault's work on discipline is historical (focused on the exercise of power in the nineteenth century); we should, therefore, not be so naive as to assume Foucault would not have recognised the possibility of further historical change. Indeed, Deleuze says that Foucault concludes his Discipline and Punish with the explicit recognition that a prison as a physical space is becoming less important in the exercise of power. This, Deleuze suggests, presages a fuller analysis of a new sort of power.[12] Deleuze makes these forceful arguments as to Foucault's understanding of power in response to a critique by Paul Virilio that Foucault did not understand the nature of modern power. Ironically, that critique is also an important precursor to Deleuze's analysis. Virilio argues that the patrolling of the highway—and not the prison—exemplifies the exercise of police power. Deleuze concurs, adding that modern authorities possess predictive technologies that anticipate the movement of subjects and consequently have less need for confining subjects. Deleuzian societies of control That predictive power is a hallmark of control. In his 'Postscript', Deleuze fleshes out this position polemically. It must be noted that Deleuze never attributes any concrete definition to the notion of control itself; he is primarily concerned with how a society of control operates. This section will similarly consider the features and modes of operation that constitute a Deleuzian society of control. Much like with the disciplinary society, the technologies of power that govern a society of control cannot be boiled down to one single technology or mechanism. Instead, there are targeted and multi-faceted ways in which societies of control manage the lives of their subjects. Most fundamentally, there are no enclosures or strictly delineated confined spaces (like, for instance, the disciplinary society's schools, barracks, and factories, which are all subject to clear separation from one another). Instead, there is a single modulation, which allows for the coexistence and connection of various states (the corporation, the education system, and the army are all connected, one flowing into the other). This brings us to the next point: exploring how these spaces or states are connected. The disciplinary society operates on the basis that its subjects start over when they move from one space to another. Though it does recognise analogies between the spaces (the discipline of the school may be similar to the discipline of the army), the spaces and norms are ultimately distinct from each other, with one having little bearing on the other. Societies of control, on the other hand, are predicated on connection between spaces, such that 'one is never finished with anything.'[13] These connections encourage a culture of constant progression or improvement. The question this cultural attitude begs (to what ends is progression and improvement directed?) admits no answer. There are also differences in the conceptualisation and treatment of the person. The disciplinary society takes the individual and subjugates her through discipline so that she will conform to the mass. No such subjugation is necessary in societies of control. The individual is not viewed as a member of a mass, but as a data point, a market audience, a sample. This allows for targeted control to take shape, where compliance is not forced upon the individual (as with discipline) but facilitated. There are no overarching aims or requirements outlined by societies of control (no 'watchwords'). The society is governed merely by way of codes that function as 'passwords'; these can allow or deny the individual access to certain information or amenities. The control of access is presumably based on the conduct of the individual and is a means of exercising control over individuals' choices: the individual self-disciplines because of incentives and disincentives encoded within herself as a data-point. This, in turn, suggests (perhaps even necessitates) a degree of technological surveillance that goes beyond that of the comparatively simple model of the Benthamic Panopticon Foucault famously employs. Additionally, there are no clear hierarchies, if there are any at all. Unlike in disciplinary societies, power is not centralised or in the hands of a single 'owner' or state. Rather, control is exercised by a corporation—invested with its own personhood—comprising stockholders. The make-up of this corporation is transitory and fundamentally transformable. All of these technologies—singular modulation across singular space, an ethos of the relentless pursuit of progress, the 'dividualisation' or 'data-fication' of the individual, the facilitation of compliance, the use of codes as passwords, technological surveillance, and the absence of clear hierarchies of power—together create a society of control. Critiques Here we will explore three critiques of Deleuze's thesis: the privatisation of public space, the role of surveillance in control, and the telos of control. Privatisation Michael Hardt deals at length with the Deleuzian conception of societies of control, both in his joint work with Antonio Negri on Empire, as well as more specifically, in a piece titled 'The Global Society of Control.' Here, Hardt contends that there is an incompleteness to Deleuze's work on control, and proceeds to elaborate on the operation of societies of control to fill in these purported gaps. He does so by situating these societies within his and Negri's broader framework of Empire. The study is multifaceted, but here only one aspect of the critique will be considered: the erasure of the dialectic between public and private. 'There is no more outside,' insists Hardt.[14] This is to say, there are no longer any meaningful or permanent divisions between private and public spaces. Nikolas Rose, similarly, argues that inherently public spaces (like public parks, libraries, and playgrounds) are being abandoned in favour of privatised and privately secured places (like shopping malls and arts centres) for acceptable members of the public.[15] Those who have no legitimate, consumerised reason to occupy these new privatised 'public' spaces are denied access to them. Populations and classes of people deemed 'dangerous' or 'undesirable' are excluded from the private-public spaces and, so, from society itself. Deleuze touches on this idea of exclusion as well, in saying that 'three quarters of humanity', who are too poor for debt (as in, those who cannot be managed through the mechanisms of 'control', because these mechanisms rely on monetary and consumerist incentives or 'passwords') and too numerous of confinement (which makes it logistically difficult to subject them to technologies of 'discipline' that rely on confinement) will have to face exclusion to shanty towns and ghettos.[16] From this, we can take two points. Firstly, that neither the societies of control, nor disciplinary societies are or have ever been able to exercise control or discipline over every individual; when they are unable to, they simply exclude these potentially unpredictable and uncontrollable threats to order. Secondly, there is the implicit acknowledgment that technologies of control and discipline can coexist; to conceive of discipline and control as dichotomous notions would be inaccurate.[17] In fact, the question posed by this essay itself may fall victim to a false dichotomy between Foucauldian discipline and Deleuzian control. These mechanisms of power are not necessarily mutually exclusive. We should, therefore, be wary to adopt a view that control represents a natural or irreversible progression (from discipline) in the exercise of power (as Hardt and Negri may be suggesting in saying that control is an intensification of discipline),[18] because they are contingent historical realities. That is what Foucault's work—and Deleuze's analysis of it—suggested of discipline, and it is no less true in the case of control. Thus, we can qualify our thesis by saying that while societies of control are increasingly replacing those of discipline, technologies of discipline (and even of sovereignty) are still employed in certain contexts. Surveillance Surveillance is implicit within Deleuze's conception of control (in the understanding of the individual as a mere data point, not the member of a mass), but Oscar Gandy articulates this technology more explicitly.[19] Such an emphasis on surveillance is problematised, however, by Rose, who posits that societies of control are not predicated on surveillance but on the instilling of self-discipline and self-regulation in their subjects. That rather misses the mark, because, as we have seen, societies of control employ a range of technologies to exercise power. Nothing suggests an emphasis on self-discipline ought to exclude the technology of surveillance, which is implicit in the incentivisation of labour and use of passwords. Telos But Rose's critique of surveillance does helpfully inform another point of discussion: the odd ideas prioritised within societies of control. Deleuze makes brilliant and incisive concluding remarks about this telos of self-improvement and self-actualisation. But what are the motivations behind this ethos of motivation? That is the question Deleuze poses in his conclusion, and it is a question that largely remains unanswered. In some ways, one can only hazard a guess at the mechanisms at work here. That is rather the point. Societies of control have evolved such that their technologies of power and their telos can be more obscure than that of disciplinary societies. VALIDATION With definitions—or, rather, understandings—of both disciplinary societies and societies of control to hand, this essay considers whether it can be said that the latter are replacing the former. The institutions of the disciplinary society Foucault identifies in his body of work—the home, the school, the prison, the barracks, the factory—are all still extant. However, as we have noted above, there need be no 'either/or' as between societies of discipline and of control; the question is more accurately one of degree and we must identify whether a general movement may be occurring. Again, that movement need not be total or irreversible. Such a movement seems to be taking place all around us. For example, remote working and learning, which Deleuze identified as increasing in the 1980's and which has skyrocketed in light of the coronavirus pandemic, has weakened substantially the disciplinary segregation of physical space.[20] At the same time, it has strengthened the all-encroaching productivity ethos of societies of control by placing work or study (itself little more than a preparatory step towards work) within the walls of the private family home. Whilst coronavirus may have accelerated a shift towards societies of control, this trend runs much deeper still. Below, we shall seek to validate the shift Deleuze identifies by employing and analysing four impressionistic vignettes. Vignette A In April 2021, Chinese state television broadcast an exposé of intolerable working conditions faced by food delivery drivers—long hours, meagre pay, algorithms that encourage dangerous driving and heavily fine lateness, and harassment from customers who have full and 'live' access to drivers' locations and contact details. China's couriers are estimated to contribute to close to 1% of the country's economic activity, but the undercover government official earned just £4.52 over a 12-hour shift.[21] The courier works in no strictly delineated or confined space, but everywhere, openly. He is the subject of constant surveillance. Customers have his precise location, his 'ETA', the corporation's promised delivery slot, and his personal mobile phone number at their fingertips. The threat of an angry call or harsh review might appear in those circumstances to operate rather like a panopticon unconfined by space, enforcing conformity. But that is only a minor part of this story; it is secondary to the algorithmic surveillance and control in which both the courier and the customer are merely variables. Drivers will be set timescales in which to complete a delivery determined by the average speed at which drivers have previously made that journey or a similar journey. If they beat that timeframe, they may be rewarded with bonus pay. If they fail, their pay will be docked. Both processes—the incentivisation of speed and disincentivisation of slowness—are automated. The algorithm does not care how the driver gets from A to B, only that he does so quickly and does not damage the customer's goods in the process. So, drivers will travel recklessly in order to beat the clock to boost their meagre pay, but this only shortens the average time of journey completion, making pay boosts harder to achieve and pay docks more likely and contributing to an insane culture of paranoia and uncertainty. Compliance with the requirements of speed in this system is facilitated, not forced. In paying the less perfect worker less and the more perfect worker more, the corporation is nudging the courier to an (ultimately ephemeral) standard of compliance. But it need take no further punishing or corrective action: it knows that the courier, impacted by these forces, will correct himself. The password operating here is that of a courier 'score' that determines the level of pay afforded for work done. This is ripe terrain to consider Deleuze's challenge as to whether the unions will be able to resist forces of control upon the breakdown of the workplace. China, where organised labour is met with fear and hostility, shows that the communist party will intervene by challenging monopolies and exposing low pay. They may moderate the technology of power, but they will not extinguish it; the work is too economically important for that. In the UK, there have been increased efforts by unions to protect insecure, 'gig-economy' labourers and they have had some success.[22] But here too the overall system of algorithmic control is not removed, but mollified. Vignette B A London-based junior employee at Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment banks in the world, has complained that staff face 18-hour shifts that mean they are earning less than the UK living wage and regularly take sick leave due to burnout. In 2015, US employee Sarvshreshth Gupta, who had been working 100-hour weeks, took his own life.[23] The company has a £50,000 entry-level base salary.[24] The company's average employee takes home about £260,000 per year.[25] It is at first blush surprising that employees at Goldman Sachs could be said to be subjects of control by twenty-first century technologies of power, and even more surprising to suggest that their situation is comparable to that of couriers in China. But this is precisely the sort of topsy-turviness that is to be expected from (and ultimately serves to legitimate) societies of control, where we all 'work hard'. The impetus to 'get ahead' is central to the ethos of self-improvement and motivation instilled by societies of control. That is perhaps nowhere more evident than amongst the new, highly-remunerated, highly-overworked, 'meritocratic', professional or upper class of managers, bankers, and lawyers.[26] Previously, elite status was maintained through generations by inheritance. That method of status-maintenance has now mostly been displaced by investments in 'human capital'. This can be achieved directly—through funding private schooling, tuition, and even work placements paid for by the volunteer—or indirectly, through covering children's rent and paying for their goods. The crucial factor in bringing about this shift has been the rise of 'meritocracy', which purports that success (i.e. the rate of remuneration for one's work) is a result and marker of an individual's inherent drive and talent but which in reality allows 'a relatively tiny segment of the population […] to transmit advantage from generation to generation' because elite parents stack the odds in favour of their children's advancement from birth.[27] This is the society of control in action: demanding, inequitable and possessing an obscured, democratically-papered-over telos, drive and skill directed at productive activities. But the elite class are not spared from the brutalities of this system, as the above vignette suggests. Since societies are increasingly meritocratic (in the sense that the most skilled and driven will generally be remunerated the most, not in the sense that the system promotes a level playing field) young elite professionals still have to work incredibly hard to 'climb the ladder'. Even if they reach seemingly secure positions of employment, they will still want to continue to reap the rewards of their labour, still need to work intensively to secure funds to invest in their children's human capital, and still be motivated by the overwhelming and corrupting cultural ideal of self-improvement and motivation. The name of Goldman Sachs' personnel team, 'Human Capital Management', is telling. It has been noted, '[l]ives are things that people have; capital has rates of return.'[28] Vignette C About one in every hundred adults in Britain has been trained as a 'mental health first aider' by the MHFA.[29] They advertise their 'proactive' services thus: 'for every £1 spent by employers on mental health interventions, they get back £5 in reduced absence [.] and staff turnover.'[30] The second of five listed responsibilities for first-aiders is to communicate concerns about 'anyone in your workplace, for example to an appropriate manager.'[31] Separately, the UK government is providing '£1 million for innovative student mental health projects' that offer targeted support to those identified statistically as being at highest risk of mental ill-health.[32] Deleuze argued the hospital was being replaced by 'neighbourhood clinics, hospices, and day care'.[33] Similarly, the above vignette suggests that the power that would in a disciplinary society be exercised by the asylum has, in our societies of control, been exercised dispersedly by employers, with the aim being to improve profit-margins and productivity rates. The actual mental wellbeing of employees—or, rather, of human capital—is a means to that end that may give rise to some incidental good. But even these incidental goods are monetised, such as when companies compete on their 'work-life balance' or their inclusion of private therapy in 'healthcare plans' so as to attract the most human capital. Under these conditions, the public healthcare officials sectioning or supporting a member of the public who risks harm to herself or others are reduced in their significance. In their place, the anxious employer preempts possible harm to the corporation by proactively addressing and preventing harm to the employee. Similarly, 'mental health teams' in schools and universities are encouraged by the government to anticipate, based on a series of data-sets, those students who are 'more at risk' and provide targeted interventions to safeguard their health (and, by extension, their productivity). Deleuze says that 'the socio-technological study of the mechanisms of control […] would have to be categorical'. By this it is meant that we must look to each institution of power—the healthcare system, the corporate system, the educational system—and describe the power being exercised there. The above vignette shows that that has become an artificial mode of analysis in this era of control. The healthcare system has been radically dispersed, with detection, prevention, and mitigation (recovery being ancillary) of illness now increasingly undertaken by the corporation and its agents, including crucially the employee herself qua employee or human capital. She will contact her mental health first aider colleague or her employer (though any difference between the two seems doubtful). She will purchase products—self-help books, meditation apps, tickets to motivational talks—with a view to her greater productivity and, hence, 'employability'. In fact, the monetary value she attributes (through her valuable spare time as much as through her pay-power) to her own productivity and employability may reduce the corporate system's nascent role in facilitating compliance; her self-improvement becomes her guiding, internalised ethos as a consumer-employee and she will discipline herself, knowing this self-improvement will be coded and rewarded. Thus, technologies of power in the modern, mental health context cannot be identified within a healthcare system, a corporate system or an education system, nor even within what might be dubbed a 'consumer system'; there is no single system of operation of which we can speak. This conceptual challenge itself demonstrates the ultimate annihilation of the institutions Deleuze anticipates in societies of control. Vignette D In May 2021, the UK government proposed halving state funding for university courses they do not regard as 'strategic priorities', such as music, drama, visual arts, and archaeology. It is estimated that such courses would run at a deficit of £2,700 per enrolled student, and many courses may therefore have to close if the plans go ahead. The government says the decision is 'designed to target taxpayers' money towards the subjects which support the skills this country needs to build back better'.[34] They also say universities should "focus [.] upon subjects which deliver strong graduate employment outcomes in areas of economic and societal importance".[35] Deleuze foretold the 'effect on the school of perpetual training, and the corresponding abandonment of all university research'.[36] Alarming an idea as this may be, the above vignette should at least discourage us from dismissing it altogether. The government's proposal betrays a deeply production-oriented approach to higher education that sees knowledge and learning as purely instrumental to the development of concrete 'skills' to be directed at the most economically valuable production of goods and services and, correspondingly, the strongest employment outcomes. The UK education system no longer possesses its own watchwords (save, perhaps, 'instilling British Values'). Instead, all activity is directed at the future employment prospects of the student. The privatisation of schools (through academisation in England) has allowed for corporate sponsorship that makes this close instrumentalism perfectly plain: the corporation's senior managers become senior managers of underperforming schools and they are expected to foster students' 'aspirations'. Here, the corporate and educational systems are blended together, the former funding the latter, the latter supplying labour to the former. The physical spaces in which learning occurs can at times barely be distinct from the corporate, whether a company name is printed across the school entrance ('Bridge Academy in partnership with UBS') or affixed to laptops donated to school students studying remotely. CONCLUSION There is a great deal of truth to Deleuze's thesis that societies of control are replacing disciplinary societies. We have noted the destruction of swathes of confined and discrete spaces; the intermixing of institutions; the pervasive power of technology to tweak and modulate behaviour through coding; and the pointless but universal ethos of motivation. As Deleuze ably demonstrates, analyses of discipline, confinement, hierarchy, and masses can only take us so far in understanding these forces. More necessary in our quest to uncover the telos we are being made to serve is a socio-technological study of control and its methods. However, this essay has also sought to demonstrate the limits of Deleuze's proposed methodology. For a 'categorical' socio-technological study of control becomes more elusive the more deeply a society succumbs to control. Schools, prisons, barracks, hospitals, factories, offices, and homes are increasingly blended (and so less discrete) environments. The office educates, entertains, protects, and diagnoses its employees. The school is a business, its pupils are prospective employees. University is a career stage. Beds, dining tables, and lounges are workstations. For those on 'home detention' during coronavirus in the United States or under TPIMs (Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures) in the United Kingdom, these same spaces are prison cells. The gradual annihilation of the disciplines as physical and conceptual spaces—which Deleuze foresaw—also renders obsolete our existing methods of understanding power. We are in need of new tools to respond to these developments; the study of categories must be replaced with the study of networks and systems. We must explore with curiosity and thoroughness the complex web of relations operating through spaces and lives. BIBLIOGRAPHY Adams R, 'English universities must prove "commitment" to free speech for bailouts' The Guardian (16 July 2020) accessed 6 May 2021 Bakare L and Adams R, 'Plans for 50% funding cuts to arts subjects at universities "catastrophic' The Guardian (6 May 2021) accessed 6 May 2021 Burroughs WS, 'The Limits of Control' in Grauerholz J and Silverberg I (eds), Word Virus: The William S Burroughs Reader (4th edn, Fourth Estate 2010) Collini S, 'Snakes and Ladders' London Review of Books (London, 1 April 2021) 15 Deleuze G, 'Foucault: Lecture 17' (University of Paris, 25 March 1986) accessed 9 May 2021 — — 'Foucault: Lecture 18' (University of Paris, 8 April 1986) accessed 9 May 2021 — — 'Foucault: Lecture 19' (University of Paris, 15 April 1986) accessed 9 May 2021 — — 'Postscript on Societies of Control' (1992) 59 October 3 Department for Education and others, '£1 million for innovative student mental health projects' UK Government (5 March 2020) accessed 11 May 2021 Ewald F, The Birth of Solidarity: The History of the French Welfare State (Cooper M ed, Johnson TS tr, Duke University Press 2020) Feng E, 'For China's Overburdened Delivery Drivers, The Customer—And App—Is Always Right' NPR (Beijing, 1 December 2020) accessed 7 May 2021 Foster M, 'Guess How Much Goldman's Average Salary Is (GS)' Investopedia (25 June 2019) accessed 10 May 2021 Foucault M, The Birth of Biopolitics: Lectures at the Collège de France 1978–79 (Senellart M ed, Burchell G tr, Palgrave Macmillan 2008) — — Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison (Sheridan A tr, 2nd edn, Vintage Books 1995) Hardt M, 'The Global Society of Control' (1998) 20(3) Discourse 139 — — and Negri A, Empire (Harvard University Press 2001) Makortoff K, 'Goldman Sachs junior banker speaks out over "18-hour shifts and low pay' The Guardian (London, 24 March 2021) accessed 7 May 2021 MHFA, 'Being a Mental Health First Aider: Your Guide to the Role' accessed 10 May 2021. — — 'Workplace Info Pack' accessed 10 May 2021. Morar N, Nail T and Smith DW (eds), Between Deleuze and Foucault (Edinburgh University Press 2016) Muldoon J, 'Foucault's Forgotten Hegelianism' (2014) 21 Parrhesia 102 Nealon J, Foucault Beyond Foucault: Power and Its Intensifications since 1984 (Stanford University Press 2008) Negri A, Interview with Gilles Deleuze: 'Control and Becoming' (Joughin M tr, Spring 1990) Rice-Oxley M, 'UK training record number of mental health first aiders' The Guardian (2 September 2019) accessed 11 May 2021 Roffe J, Gilles Deleuze's Empiricism and Subjectivity: A Critical Introduction and Guide (Edinburgh University Press 2016) Rose N, 'Government and Control' (2000) 40(2) The British Journal of Criminology 321–339 Wallin J, 'Four Propositions on the Limits of Control' (2013) 39(1) Visual Arts Research 6–8 Wise JM, 'Mapping the Culture of Control: Seeing through The Truman Show' (2002) 3(1) Television & New Media 29–47 Yang Y, 'China's food delivery groups slammed after undercover TV exposé' Financial Times (London, 29 April 2021) accessed 11 May 2021 — — 'How China's delivery apps are putting riders at risk' Financial Times (London, 26 January 2021) accessed 11 May 2021 [1] Gilles Deleuze, 'Postscript on Societies of Control' (1992) 59 October 3–7. [2] On their complex relationship before and after Foucault's death, see François Dosse, 'Deleuze and Foucault: A Philosophical Friendship' in Nikolae Morar, Thomas Nail and Daniel W Smith (eds), Between Deleuze and Foucault (Edinburgh University Press 2016). [3] James Muldoon, 'Foucault's Forgotten Hegelianism' (2014) 21 Parrhesia 102. [4] Michel Foucault, Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison (Alan Sheridan tr, 2nd edn, Vintage Books 1995) [5] Michael Hardt, 'The Global Society of Control' (1998) 20(3) Discourse 139. [6] Deleuze cites these authors in his 'Postscript': (n 1). [7] Gilles Deleuze, 'Foucault: Lecture 19' (University of Paris, 15 April 1986). [8] Burroughs himself concedes his analogy of the life-boat is a 'primitive' one: William S Burroughs, 'The Limits of Control' in James Grauerholz and Ira Silverberg (eds), Word Virus: The William S Burroughs Reader (4th edn, Fourth Estate 2010). [9] 'Postscript' (n 1) 7. [10] ibid. [11] 'Postscript' (n 1) 4. [12] Foucault refers to it as 'biopower'. Biopower is not something that this essay will address, but we can observe that it may be that the Foucauldian notion of biopower and the Deleuzian notion of control are broadly similar or even the same: for a fuller discussion of that relationship, see Thomas Nail, 'Biopower and Control' in Between Deleuze and Foucault (n 2). [13] 'Postscript' (n 1) 5. [14] Hardt (n 5) 140. [15] Nikolas Rose, 'Government and Control' (2000) 40(2) The British Journal of Criminology 331. [16] 'Postscript' (n 1) 7. [17] JM Wise, 'Mapping the Culture of Control: Seeing through The Truman Show' (2002) 3(1) Television & New Media 29. [18] Nail, 'Biopower and Control'. [19] Wise, 'Culture of Control' 33. [20] Deleuze, 'Foucault: Lecture 18'. [21] Yuan Yang, 'China's food delivery groups slammed after undercover TV exposé' Financial Times (London, 29 April 2021). [22] For instance, many will now be recognised as 'workers' rather than as 'self-employed', with greater protections: Uber v Aslam [2021] UKSC 5. [23] Kalyeena Makortoff, 'Goldman Sachs junior banker speaks out over "18-hour shifts and low pay' The Guardian (London, 24 March 2021). [24] ibid. [25] Michael Foster, 'Guess How Much Goldman's Average Salary Is (GS)' Investopedia (25 June 2019). [26] Stefan Collini, 'Snakes and Ladders' London Review of Books (London, 1 April 2021) 15. [27] ibid 22. [28] ibid. [29] Mark Rice-Oxley, 'UK training record number of mental health first aiders' The Guardian (2 September 2019). [30]MHFA, 'Being a Mental Health First Aider: Your Guide to the Role'. [31] MHFA, 'Workplace Info Pack'. [32] Department for Education and others, '£1 million for innovative student mental health projects' UK Government (5 March 2020). [33] 'Postscript' (n 1) 4. [34] Lanre Bakare and Richard Adams, 'Plans for 50% funding cuts to arts subjects at universities "catastrophic' The Guardian (6 May 2021). [35] Richard Adams, 'English universities must prove "commitment" to free speech for bailouts' The Guardian (16 July 2020). [36] 'Postscript' (n 1) 7.
U istraživanjima kasnosrednjovjekovnoga dvora knezova Iločkih pronađena je raznovrsna antička materijalna ostavština koja obogaćuje dosadašnje skromne spoznaje o Cucciumu i limesu u hrvatskome Podunavlju. U iskopavanjima 2002. godine otkriven je paljevinski grob s drvenom arhitekturom u kojem su se nalazili prilozi dvojakoga podrijetla. Autohtono podrijetlo u latenskoj kulturi mlađega željeznoga doba pokazuju lonci zaobljenoga tijela izrađeni rukom i zdjela S-profilacije. Sjevernoitalskoga podrijetla su zdjelica tankih stijenki, keramička svjetiljka, staklena posuda te ostali prilozi koji zajedno s Klaudijevim novcem datiraju grob u sredinu 1. st. Na osnovi nalaza posuda izrađenih u latenskim tradicijama pretpostavlja se kako je u grobu bila pokopana osoba starosjedilačkoga podrijetla, dok importirani prilozi svjedoče o ranoj romanizaciji južne Panonije i dunavskoga limesa. O postojanju složenoga pogrebnoga rituala svjedoče izdvojeni ostaci kultiviranih biljaka domaćega i uvoznoga podrijetla koje su bile položene u lonce. ; The high Danube bank near Ilok, which is situated on the western slopes of Fruška gora, was continuously settled in all prehistoric periods, and after that - as the finds analyzed herein indicate - in the Roman time, but Ilok experienced its peak in the Late Middle Ages, in the period of Nikola and his son Lovro. The beginning of excavations in Ilok's upper town is particularly significant for reveal of the topography of Roman Ilok, which remained almost completely unknown due to a small number of finds. Data about the Roman settlement of Ilok (Cuccium) are preserved in several Itineraries, with different forms for the settlement's name. Thus Notitia Dignitatum mentions two cavalry units, Cuneus equitum Promotorum and Equites Sagittarii, in Cuccium of the 4th century. The excavations of the Institute of Archaeology in Zagreb began in 2001 in the extension of the eastern wing of Odescalchi Castle, to be continued in 2002 towards the west to encompass the lawn in front of the castle (Fig. 1). In preloess layer SJ 224 (10YR 4/3) in the southern part of the excavated area, filling SJ 229 was isolated. This filling is the first in a number of preserved fillings of the larger prehistoric pit SJ 306 which by finds was dated to the beginning of the Early Iron Age. In prehistoric filling SJ 229 another younger rectangular filling SJ 230 (5Y 4/3) was identified, whose western edge was damaged by recent burial in lime pit SJ 216, whereas the southern part lies outside the margin of the excavated area. Filling SJ 230 is part of the Early Roman grave SJ 273. Along the southern profile of the dig in filling SJ 230 a smaller burial SJ 270 and filling SJ 269, which caused no major damage to the grave (Fig. 5), were identified. The bottom of the grave with finds remained preserved, and the lack of incinerated human remains is possibly due to the fact that they are situated in the southern part of the grave, which has not yet been excavated, even though it is highly possible that they were destroyed in an earlier intervention in the grave filling. All grave goods were found in the eastern part of the grave (Fig. 2, Fig. 4). In the middle of the grave, close to the top of SJ 230, a hollow shafted iron axe (Pl. 2, 7) was found, which on account of its position compared to other finds is supposed to have entered the grave by digging through the older prehistoric strata, thus not belonging to the grave goods. On the bottom of the grave, filling SJ 268 (2.5Y 5/6) was isolated which belongs to the thin layer of preserved wooden architecture (Fig. 2-3), on whose remains in the north-eastern corner of the grave two hand-made pots with a rounded body and a flat rim and bottom (Pl. 1, 1-2) were found, as well as fragments of a wheel-made bowl with an S profile (Pl. 2, 1). In the corner of the grave, fragments of a dark-grey bowl with thin walls (Pl. 2, 6) and a play-token of dark blue glass paste (Pl. 2, 1) were found. A part of the bowl was also in a pot laid slightly more to the south (Pl. 1, 2). Around both pots numerous seeds were identified, which is why the complete content of the filling around the vessels and their filling is flotated. In the eastern part of the grave there were fragments of a glass vessel, probably a funnel or a glass (Pl. 2, 4). Fragments of a ceramic lamp (Pl. 2, 5), a bronze earring (Pl. 1, 3), a fragment of a bronze needle (Pl. 1, 5) and an iron rivet (Pl. 2, 8) were found in the south-eastern excavated part of the grave. Also in that part of the grave a bronze artefact, which probably represents a vessel's handle fastening system (Pl. 1, 4), and Claudius coin (Pl. 1, 6) were found. Beneath the remains of planks, filling SJ 272 (5Y 5/4) was isolated, which contained no grave goods. The excavated part of grave SJ 273 is rectangular-shaped with rounded corners with dimensions of 2.12 m (W-E) and 1.88 m (N-S up to the dig profile). The results of research indicate that all the grave goods were lain on the bottom of a wooden case, the existence of which is proved not only by SJ 268, but also by four uncovered post holes, one in each corner (SJ 277 and SJ 295), and two more in the middle of the western and eastern side of the grave respectively (SJ 275 and SJ 293). Although the southern part of the grave was not excavated, it can be assumed that post holes were in the south-eastern and southwestern corner of the grave. All the holes are quadrangular, and in the bottom part they become octagonal to make post driving easier. The results of floatation of part of the filling around the ceramic vessels laying in the north-eastern part of the grave and the filling of pots indicated the existence of a complex funeral custom which is reflected in the presence of a relatively large number of isolated cultivated plants. Archaeobotanical analysis showed that among grave goods there were cereals (barley, millet, and different types of wheat), leguminous plants (lentil and vetch) as well as a large number of "fruit" objects (melon/cucumber, fig, apple/pear cherry/sour cherry/sloe, plum, elder and vine grape). The fig and probably the melon were imported to the Ilok since they are cultivated in warmer (sub)Mediterranean areas, whereas the other sorts were probably cultivated in the surroundings of Ilok. All of the cereals and vetch are carbonized, i.e. they were intentionally or unintentionally burned. Apparently they were laid onto a funeral pile. The remaining "fruit" finds were calcified, i.e. they were laid into the grave fresh or dried, probably when laying the human remains and other grave goods. With the exception of the fig, which had to be dried due to long transport from the Mediterranean region, the remaining fruits could have been laid fresh. Apples, pears, plums, sour berries and elder berries as well as vine grapes and melons ripen at the same time of the year, i.e. in the early autumn, which suggests that the burial took place in that season. Still one has to keep in mind that "fruit" objects could have been kept in dried state for a relatively long time. The remains of a Roman grave were found in the excavations of 2002, indicating the existence of a cemetery, which had been unknown until now. The grave contained a cremation burial, with grave goods that were laid on the bottom in the north-eastern corner and along the eastern side of the wooden case, rectangular in shape, which was probably made of oak wood (Fig. 4). The answers to questions on the chronological position, ethnic determination and the origin of the finds shall be given after an analysis of the grave goods, which can be divided in two groups, the first represented by three ceramic vessels made following the tradition of the La Tène culture, and the other group of finds which are northern Italic imports and which, along with the coin, make dating of the grave possible. These finds consist of a ceramic bowl with thin walls, a glass vessel, a ceramic lamp, a bronze earring and a glass paste play-token. The same origin can be assumed concerning the finds that were preserved only in fragments such as a bronze handle fastening system of a vessel and a needle. On the basis of their shape and technological characteristics, the two hand-made pots with rounded bodies and the wheel-made, S-profiled bowl are connected with the tradition of the La Tène culture. The dark grey to dark brown pots with an admixture of quartz and chuff in abundance, have a rounded body, a flat rim beneath which there is a horizontal groove and a flat bottom (Pl. 1, 1-2). These are situla form pots, for which there are numerous parallels in the Late La Tène Scordiscs settlements in eastern Slavonia and Syrmia, found also in Early Roman strata and graves. Of similar origin is also the S-profiled, wheel-made bowl with a rich admixture of quartz (Pl. 2, 1) that was also found in the north-eastern corner of the grave. The hand-made pots with rounded bodies and the S-profiled bowl represent the Late La Tène heritage of the Scordiscs and testify to the presence of an autochthonous population in the Early Roman sites of the 1st century, whose traditions are the strongest in the shapes, techniques and methods of decorating coarse pottery. As indicated by the finds from the settlement layers in Vinkovci, Osijek and Srijemska Mitrovica, the local craftsmen continued the production of recognizable shapes, thus satisfying the needs of the indigenous population. Those forms were decorated by familiar motifs by applying combed or broom-shaped ornaments and by polishing. Ceramic ware with autochthonous features was preserved until the period of the Flavians, suggesting the existence of indigenous peregrine communities which preserved the achievements of their own material culture up until the end of the 1st century, but due to intensified romanization in the 2nd century this autochthonous trait The second and larger group of finds from the grave testifying to the romanization of the indigenous population of Cuccium. This group consists of Early Roman import artefacts, which arrived at Limes by the well-known Sava valley trade route from the northern Italic region. The dark grey bowl with thin walls and two horizontal ribs (Pl. 2, 6), the ceramic lamp with a voluted nose and a rosette ornament (Pl. 2, 5), and a glass vessel, most probably a funnel or a glass (Pl. 2, 4) represent imported grave goods which are not only chronologically sensitive but also point to the direction of the cultural and economic effects of the Roman conquest of the Drava, Sava and Danube interfluve. Ceramic ware with thin walls appeared in the eastern Alps and the middle Danube in the Tiberian period along with Padanian sigillata at the time of the first military conquests. Different shapes and ornamentation methods were identified, of which bowls decorated in barbotine technique are the largest in number. Typical of southern Pannonia is intensive import in the Claudius-Flavius period, when the peak of production was achieved. With the Flavian period, the production in the local workshops of Sirmium, Emona and on Gomolava began, in which shapes, ornaments and facture of the imported specimens were imitated. At the end of the 1st century the quality and the number of vessels with thin walls declined, but their production continued until the middle of the 2nd century. The ceramic lamp with reddish-brown coating and volute nose, two grooves on its shoulder and a rosette ornament (Pl. 2, 5) is also of northern Italic origin; its fragments were found at the eastern margin of the grave. The lamp find, along with other imports, suggests the acceptance of Roman lifestyle traditions and funeral customs. The described lamp belongs to the Iványi I type, which encompasses specimens with volute triangle-shaped nose, a relief figure in the middle concentric grooves on the rim. According to D. Iványi's classification, the lamp from Ilok belongs to the third type, its basic feature being a broader voluted nose dated to about the middle and the last quarter of the 1st century or to the 2nd century. According to Loeschcke's classification of ceramic lamps with an angular nose and volutes, the Ilok find corresponds to type I, variation b, characterized by a somewhat narrower top of the nose than with lamps having volutes, whereas the shoulder profile with two grooves is of type IIb. The angular ceramic lamps with volutes of the Iványi I, or Loeschcke I type, from Pannonian sites, represent a northern Italic import from the beginning of the 1st century, when they arrived along with the Arentino and northern Italic sigillata of the Augustan and Tiberian periods. The finds of voluted lamps, as well as of ceramic ware with thin walls, in military camps on the Danube (Zemun, Novi Banovci, Surduk) prove that they were imported to satisfied the needs of the army, but also for the higher social class of the autochthonous population, as indicated by the richly cremation grave from Ilok. Production in local Pannonian workshops began in the second half of the 1st century, as finds of moulds in Sirmium, Mursa and Poetovio suggest. Their occurrence in south Pannonian sites can be followed also in the 2nd century, up to the beginning of the 3rd. The smaller vessel, probably a funnel or a glass, made of greenish glass with a horizontally inverted rim (Pl. 2, 4), the fragments of which were found along the eastern margin of the grave, also suggests northern Italic origin. Just like the voluted lamp and the bowl with thin walls, the vessel came to the Danube limes through Aquileia, which in the 1st-2nd centuries was an important production center, but at the same time it was a commercial port for goods coming from other production centers, from where it was imported into the eastern Alpine and Danube regions. In the north-eastern corner of the grave there was also a play-token made of dark blue glass paste (Pl. 2, 1), which is supposed to have served for playing and which was dated to the 1st century. In the grave, a greenish glass bead was found as well (Pl. 2, 3). Metal grave goods and coin were preserved (Fig. 4) in the south-eastern excavated part of the grave, on the remains of poorly preserved wooden planks. The little bronze74 ring with an irregular rectangular cross-section has its one terminal looped, whereas its other terminal is missing (Pl. 1, 3). Its description corresponds with the type of Roman bronze earrings in the shape of wired annulets with different cross sections, with looped or clipped terminals. Simple earrings in the form of a wired ring that used to close by inserting the small hook through the loop were documented in a longer period, and they differ according to the shape of the pendant hanging from the ring, whose shape remained almost unchanged. The fragment of a bronze needle (Pl. 1, 5) was probably part of a bronze fibula. In the immediate vicinity of the earring there was another object, the function of which is not sufficiently clear. It might have been a handle fastening system of a bronze vessel (Pl. 1, 4) consisting of a leaned ring with an oval outline and a round cross-section, beneath which there is trifoliate sheet metal with rectangular terminals and a rivet hole in the upper part. The ring is separated from the bottom part by a rib, on which there are two horizontal grooves. In the immediate vicinity, a smaller iron rivet (Pl. 2, 8) was found with a short spike with a rectangular cross-section that might have served for fastening a handle. Apart from the described finds, another import in the grave are also the remains of the fig and the melon, found along with other archaeobotanical samples in the north-eastern part of the grave and in the fillings of both pots. The figs could not be cultivated in the southern Pannonian area due to inclement climatic conditions. Since figs could not have been kept fresh for a long time, it was not possible to transport the fruits across larger distances, therefore probably the figs arrived to Cuccium dried. The figs, along with the remaining ceramic and glass finds, were imported for the needs of the settled Italic, but also indigenous population, who were not unfamiliar with Italic goods. The largest part of archaeobotanical artefacts accounts for wine grape seeds. The question of the origin and cultivation of wine among the Illyrians with the mentioned antique sources was thoroughly analysed by M. Zaninović. The Pannonian production of small quantities of wine and the bad quality of its production is mentioned by Dion Cassius (49.36.2), which is also confirmed by Strabo's quote (VII.5.10) that the regions above Dalmatia are mountainous and cold and that vineyards can seldom be found there. The finds of amphorae dated in the beginning of the 1st century, which came along with the wine across Aquileia, testify to imports of wine to Sirmium, which was supported by settled Italics and by the indigenous population. Wine cultivation in Pannonia was intensified in the second half of the 3rd century, in the period of Probus, when soldiers planted selected grapes on the slopes of Fruška gora (Almus Mons). The discovery of grape seeds in pots in the grave in Ilok prove the earlier existence of vineyards on the western slopes of Fruška gora already in the 1st century, although it is possible that the tradition of wine cultivation in the Ilok region is considerably older. The laying of different kinds of cereals and fruits combined with ceramic and glass vessels of twofold origin into the grave suggests the existence of a complex funeral rite, which is still inadequately understood in the southern Pannonian territory in the Early Roman period. Numerous parallels to all described finds from the grave in Ilok were documented in the Danube region, which enable the dating of the grave in the middle of the 1st century. This is also confirmed by the find of Claudius coin (Pl. 1, 6). Although the grave has not been completely excavated, the grave goods and remains of grave architecture enriched the existing understanding of the process of romanization of the Croatian Danube region, testifying to the relation of the indigenous population towards the newly arrived achievements of the Roman culture. Of particular importance for the ethnic determination of the burial are three ceramic vessels from the northeastern corner of the grave, two hand-made pots with a rounded body (Pl. 1, 1-2) and the S-profiled, wheel-made bowl (Pl. 2, 1). The described vessels can be compared with the material heritage of the La Tène culture, which in the middle Danube is connected with the Scordiscs. In the described shapes, the continuation of pottery traditions of the indigenous mixed Celtic-Pannonian population is visible, which in the 1st century formed an important ethnic component of the southern part of Roman Pannonia. The second group of finds that suggests northern Italic origin points to the direction of the new ethnic, cultural and economic influences on the eastern part of the Sava-Drava-Danube interfluve in the process of early romanization. Numerous parallels with Early Roman cremation burials from Syrmia, in which ceramic finds produced following La Tène traditions were found, indicate a strong tradition of the autochthonous population up until the end of the 1st century. This means that the mixed Celtic-Pannonian population living in the territory of the middle Danube played an important role in the process of early romanization and formed a constituent part of the ethnic corps of the newly conquered part of southern Pannonia. The indigenous population in larger centers that emerged from Late La Tène protourbane centers, was exposed to more intensive and rapid romanization by the settling Italic population and veterans and common imports, which was accompanied by the achievements of the Roman way of life. Rural Late La Tène communities long held the features of their own material culture, accepting only some of the achievements of the newly founded Roman provincial culture. In the grave in Ilok, imported objects suggesting northern Italic origin were found as well, and they came to the middle Danube by a trade route that was in function earlier – along the Sava River, where in the 1st century BC certain goods were transported for the Scordiscs. This is shown by numerous finds of bronze vessels of northern Italic origin, which in the sites of La Tène culture in eastern Slavonia occur in graves and in the most important fortified settlements such as Dalj, Sotin, Vinkovci and Orolik. The import of bronze vessels took place from Aquileia through Nauportus and Emona, from where along the Sava over Segestica it came to the middle Danube. Strabo (4.6.10; 5.1.8; 7.5.2) described this important prehistoric communication, and the described trade route is also supported by finds of coins from Appolonia and Dyrrhachion, as well as of Roman Republican coins. The use of the well-known trade route, along the Sava towards the East, continued also in the Early Roman period, when Aquileia was the most significant center of the export of pottery with thin walls, terra sigillatae and glass vessels on the markets of Pannonia and Noricum. It can be claimed with certainty that Tiberius' conquest of the eastern part of the Interfluve came running across the Sava valley. The understanding of events after the Roman conquest of eastern Slavonia and western Syrmia is weak due to a lack of site excavations, on which the process of romanization that had started could be followed. Although there were significant military bases of the Danube Limes in the described territory, as well as larger civic settlements in its hinterland, such as Mursa and Cibalae, the material heritage of the first decades of the 1st century is little known. What all the Roman centers in the territory of eastern Slavonia and western Syrmia have in common is that they were erected either in the most significant Late La Tène centers, or in their vicinity. In all mentioned sites, on the Limes as well as in its hinterland, in the Early Roman layers dated to the 1st century, shapes that suggest the continuity of the Late La Tène material heritage prevail. In the first line, the early Roman import was directed to significant Late La Tène Scordisc settlements, where along with ceramic forms made in autochthonous traditions a northern Italic import of the Late Augustan and Tiberian periods occurred. Within the study of imported ceramic vessels, the presence of auxiliary military units, the arrival of merchants and settlements of Italics already in the early 1st century were identified. On the sites along the Limes, northern Italic imports from the Late Augustan and Tiberian periods was not rich in numbers. In the Julian-Claudian period, only auxiliary military units controlling the border existed along the Danube in mobile camps. Imports became more intense only in the Flavian period, when the military units came to the Danube and erected permanent fortresses. This also intensified the romanization of the indigenous population, which was also advanced by the recruitment of the autochthonous population to auxiliary units. Military units were always followed by merchants who satisfied their needs, but also the needs of settled Italics, as well as the upper class of the indigenous population, to whom those goods were not unknown, with imported goods. The Roman merchants were familiar with the circumstances on the market of the Drava-Sava-Danube interfluve and they were the advance contingent of the Roman conquest. The quote of Velleius Paterculus (II.110) that at the beginning of the rebellion in Pannonia and Dalmatia many merchants were killed testifies to the early presence of Roman merchants in this interfluve zone. If one would try to closer determine the ethnicity of the grave found in Ilok, one should look for the answer in Roman antiquity sources dealing with the ethnic structure of the eastern part of the Sava-Drava-Danube interfluve in the pre-Roman period and immediately after the conquest. The middle Danube in the Late Iron Age was populated by the Scordiscs, and after the conquest Roman sources mention some new communities. Thus, in the territory of the Croatian Danube area the Cornacates are mentioned, which Pliny the Elder mentions in his alphabetic index of the communities settled in Pannonia (N.H. III. 148). Since on that occasion communities from the territory of Transdanubia are mentioned as well, which were definitely conquered as late as in the Claudius period, the information on the Cornacates, to whom Cuccium is assigned, corresponds with the time to which the grave from Ilok is dated. The Cornacates as a peregrine community of Celtic-Pannonian origin were settled in the territory along the Danube in the surroundings of Vukovar up to Ilok. The western border towards neighbors - the Breuci - must have been around Vukovar and Negoslavci, where two military diplomas were found, issued to veterans of Breuci origin. The second possibility is that the Cornacates were only the citizens of the settlement Cornacum. Evidence supporting this statement is also found in Pliny's statement (N.H. III. 148) that Sirmium was an oppidum and a community of the Sirmienses and Amantinis, where under the Sirmienses exclusively the citizens of the settlement, which was the center of the Amantinian community, are meant. The final answer to the question whether the Cornacates lived in the territory of Ilok will be found only by an epigraphic find. The results of excavations of the castle of the Ilok in 2001 and 2002 extended the present-day understanding of the topography of Cuccium, and the discovery of the Early Roman cremation grave gave an insight into the process of early romanization of the Limes in the territory of the Croatian Danube region. The Roman settlement laid more to the west than the late medieval palace of the Ilok princes, whereas graves were situated along the roads that led from the settlement, grave sites being indicated by finds of Late Antiquity sarcophagi and brick tombs to the south of today's Ilok. A grave was found to the west of the settlement, on the site of the present Ilok fortress, suggesting the existence of an Early Roman cemetery, where the indigenous population was buried. The finds of two hand-made pots with a rounded body and the wheel-made S-profiled bowl testify to this, indicating a strong tradition of the La Tène culture. The shape of the grave with the remains of a wooden cast has up to the present not been identified at the known Late La Tène Scordisc graves, therefore the question of its origin remains open. The second group of grave goods of northern Italic origin, represented by the bowl with thin walls, the lamp with the volute nose, the glass vessel and other metal and glass finds, points to the romanization of the encountered indigenous population, at the same time, based on the coin finds, dating the grave in the time of Claudius, in the middle of the 1st century. The discovery of the remains of different cultivated plants, out of which some show traces of incineration in and around both pots, testifies to the existence of a complex funeral rite in which, same as in the finds, the traditions of the newly arrived Roman culture intermingle with the material heritage of the autochthonous mixed Celtic-Pannonian population. It is highly conceivable that future research in Ilok shall expand the scarce understanding of the process of romanization and life along the limes in the territory of the Croatian Danube region.