Suchergebnisse

Intro -- SFPE Task Group on Fire Risk Assessment -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 Purpose -- 1.2 Scope -- 1.3 Limitations -- References -- Chapter 2: Risk, Fire Risk, and Fire Risk Assessment -- 2.1 The Concept of the Risk -- 2.2 Scenarios -- 2.3 Frequency -- 2.4 Consequences -- 2.5 Interpretation of the Risk Parameters -- References -- Chapter 3: Overview of the Fire Risk Assessment Process -- 3.1 Project Scope and Objectives -- 3.2 Design Information and Data Collection -- 3.3 Risk Assessment Method Selection -- 3.4 Acceptance or Tolerance Criteria -- 3.5 Fire Hazards Identification -- 3.6 Fire Scenarios -- 3.7 Frequency Analysis -- 3.8 Consequence Analysis -- 3.9 Risk Estimation -- 3.10 Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Treatment -- 3.11 Risk Evaluation -- 3.12 Risk Acceptance -- 3.13 Final Design Option Selection -- 3.14 Documentation and Risk Communication -- 3.15 Residual Risk Management -- 3.16 Fire Safety Management and Risk Monitoring -- Chapter 4: Project Scope and Objectives -- 4.1 Scope -- 4.1.1 Physical Location and Boundaries -- 4.1.2 Hazards -- 4.1.3 Fire Protection -- 4.1.4 Occupancy -- 4.1.5 Stakeholders -- 4.1.6 Regulatory Requirements -- 4.2 Objectives -- 4.3 Example: Project Scope and Objectives Example -- Chapter 5: Design Information and Data Collection -- 5.1 Facility Documentation and Drawings: Non-fire Protection -- 5.2 Regulatory Requirements -- 5.3 Occupancy Information -- 5.4 Process Documentation and Drawings -- 5.5 Fire Protection Documentation and Drawings -- 5.6 Fire Hazard Information -- 5.7 Example: Design Specification and Data Collection -- Chapter 6: Risk Assessment Method Selection -- Reference -- Chapter 7: Acceptance or Tolerance Criteria -- 7.1 Stakeholders -- 7.2 Tolerance and Acceptance -- 7.3 Establishing Risk Criteria -- 7.4 Tolerability and Acceptability.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment -- Copyright -- Other Recent Reports Of The Board On Environmental Studies And Toxicology -- Preface -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- REGULATION OF HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS -- CHARGE TO THE STUDY COMMITTEE -- CURRENT RISK-ASSESSMENT PRACTICES -- STRATEGIES FOR RISK ASSESSMENT -- Flexibility and the Use of Default Options -- Recommendations -- Validation: Methods and Models -- Recommendations -- Priority-Setting and Data Needs -- Recommendations -- Variability -- Recommendations -- Uncertainty -- Recommendations -- Aggregation -- Recommendations -- Communicating Risk -- Recommendation -- An Iterative Approach -- Recommendations -- OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- 1 Introduction -- Charge To The Committee -- Conceptual Framework Of The Report -- Part I Current Approaches to Risk Assessment -- 2 Risk Assessment and Its Social and Regulatory Contexts -- General Concepts -- What is Risk Assessment? -- How Is Risk Assessment Conducted? -- What is the Relationship Between Risk Assessment and Research? -- What is the Relationship Between Risk Assessment and Regulatory Decision-Making? -- What Is a Default Option? -- Historical Roots -- Early Efforts to Establish Safe Limits of Exposure to Toxic Substances -- The Problem of Carcinogens -- NRC Study Of Risk Assessment In The Federal Government -- Events After Release Of The 1983 NRC Report -- Uses Of Risk Assessment In The Regulation Of Hazardous Air Pollutants -- Noncancer Risk Associated With Hazardous Air Pollutants -- Public Criticism Of Conduct And Uses Of Risk Assessment -- Criticisms Pertaining to Conduct of Risk Assessment -- Criticisms Pertaining to the Relationship Between Risk Assessment and Risk Management -- Note -- 3 Exposure Assessment -- Introduction -- 1992 Exposure-Assessment Guidelines.

Machine generated contents note: Chapter 1 -- Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment in Coastal -- and Estuarine Environments1 -- Morris H. Roberts, Jr, Michael C. Newman, and Robert C. Hale -- Chapter 2 -- European Approaches to Coastal and Estuarine Risk Assessment15 -- Mark Crane, Neal Sorokin, James R. Wheeler, Albania Grosso, -- Paul Whitehouse, and David Morritt -- Chapter 3 -- Emerging Contaminants of Concern in Coastal -- and Estuarine Environments 41 -- Robert C. Hale and Mark J. La Guardia -- Chapter 4 -- Enhancing Belief during Causality Assessments: Cognitive Idols -- or Bayes's Theorem? 73 -- Michael C. Newman and David A. Evans -- Chapter 5 -- Bioavailability, Biotransformation, and Fate of Organic Contaminants -- in Estuarine Animals 97 -- Richard E Lee -- Chapter 6 -- The Bioaccumulation of Mercury, Methylmercury, and Other Toxic -- Elements into Pelagic and Benthic Organisms127 -- Robert PR Mason -- Chapter 7 -- Dietary Metals Exposure and Toxicity to Aquatic Organisms: -- Implications for Ecological Risk Assessment151 -- Christian E. Schlekat, Byeong-Gweon Lee, and Samuel N. Luoma -- Chapter 8 -- Endocrine Disruption in Fishes and Invertebrates: Issues for Saltwater -- Ecological Risk Assessment 189 -- Kenneth M.Y. Leung, James R. Wheeler, David Morritt and Mark Crane -- Chapter 9 -- The Use of Toxicity Reference Values (TRVs) to Assess the Risks That -- Persistent Organochlorines Pose to Marine Mammals 217 -- Paul D. Jones, Kurunthachalam Kannan, Alan L. Blankenship, -- and John P Giesy -- Chapter 10 -- Effects of Chronic Stress on Wildlife Pop pulations: A Modeling -- Approach and Case Study247 -- Diane E. Nacci, Timothy R. Gleason, Ruth Gutjahr-Gobell, Marina Huber, -- and Wayne R. Munns, Jr -- Chapter 11 -- Structuring Population-Based Ecological Risk Assessments -- in a Dynam ic Landscape 273 -- Christopher E. Mackay, Jenee A. Colton, and Gary Bigham -- Chapter 12 -- Incremental Chemical Risks and Damages in Urban Estuaries: -- Spatial and Historical Ecosystem Analysis 297 -- Dave Ludwig and Timothy J. lannuzzi -- Chapter 13 -- Ecological Risk Assessment in Coastal and Estuarine Environments327 -- Michael C. Newman, Robert C. Hale, and Morris H. Roberts, Jr.

0. Introduction - Ecologist in Wonderland -- Part 1. Linking Ecotoxicology and Ecology -- Chapter 1. Basic Concepts of Ecological Risk Assessment -- Chapter 2. Population-level assessment -- Chapter 3. Population models of extinction -- Chapter 4. Population level assessment using the canonical model -- Part 2. Models for ecotoxicology -- Chapter 5. Species Sensitivity Distribution in Ecological Risk Assessment -- Chapter 6. BLM: A model for predicting metal toxicities -- Chapter 7.Mathematical models for chemical mixtures -- Chapter 8.Statistics and related topics.

Rivers have always flooded their floodplains. Over 2.5 billion people worldwide have been affected by flooding in recent decades. The economic damage is also considerable, averaging 100 billion US dollars per year. There is no doubt that damage and other negative effects of floods can be avoided. However, this has a price: financially and politically. Costs and benefits can be estimated through risk assessments. Questions about the location and frequency of floods, about the objects that could be affected and their vulnerability are of importance for flood risk managers, insurance companies and politicians. Thus, both variables and factors from the fields of hydrology and sociol-economics play a role with multi-layered connections. One example are dikes along a river, which on the one hand contain floods, but on the other hand, by narrowing the natural floodplains, accelerate the flood discharge and increase the danger of flooding for the residents downstream. Such larger connections must be included in the assessment of flood risk. However, in current procedures this is accompanied by simplifying assumptions. Risk assessments are therefore fuzzy and associated with uncertainties. This thesis investigates the benefits and possibilities of new data sources for improving flood risk assessment. New methods and models are developed, which take the mentioned interrelations better into account and also quantify the existing uncertainties of the model results, and thus enable statements about the reliability of risk estimates. For this purpose, data on flood events from various sources are collected and evaluated. This includes precipitation and flow records at measuring stations as well as for instance images from social media, which can help to delineate the flooded areas and estimate flood damage with location information. Machine learning methods have been successfully used to recognize and understand correlations between floods and impacts from a wide range of data and to develop improved models. Risk models help ...

A problem in policymaking for prevention of harm to persons and the environment concerns the probability of harm occurring—that is, the measure of risk involved. Policymakers have almost always sought to calculate the risk involved in proposed courses of action. Their methods have often been irrational and their estimates erroneous. Explicit analysis of risk to society and systematic methods for estimating it emerged with the advent of science as more reliable procedures for prediction and decision‐making. However, as with many other forms of analysis, the assessment of risk has carried its own risk—namely an undue reliance on logical quantitative techniques which fail to address the root causes of public concern and apprehension. Common‐sense assessments of risk tell us more what risks people regard as acceptable and risks arouse anxiety and protest. Carnage from accidents on the nation's highways arouse much less apprehension than nuclear accidents even though actual risk from automobiles is much greater than injury or death from nuclear reactors. The following paper makes the case that the art and science of risk assessment will fall short of social and political realities until the psychological and cultural aspects of risk receive more adequate attention.