Suchergebnisse

Financial markets serve numerous roles, amongst them of course is the uncoerced exchange of securities. In addition to that role, they serve a very useful function of conveying to market observers the information about the future, with the challenge being our ability to elicit and interpret that information. This paper addresses that latter function regarding the option markets which provide the value for the VIX 30-day implied volatility on the S&P 500 Market Index. It is demonstrated that the peak values of VIX during Persian Gulf I (1990–1991) and Persian Gulf II (2003) were nearly identical. The VIX measure is then computed during the crises of 2008–2009, 2020 and 2022. Critically, this paper demonstrates the valuable informational content provided by the "term structure of VIX", the set of cross-sectional implied volatilities observed with different times to expiration.

This paper applies long-memory techniques (both parametric and semi-parametric) to examine whether Brexit has led to any significant changes in the degree of persistence of the FTSE (Financial Times Stock Index) 100 Implied Volatility Index (IVI) and of the British pound's implied volatilities (IVs) vis-à-vis the main currencies traded in the FOREX (foreign exchange market), namely the euro, the US dollar and the Japanese yen. We split the sample to compare the stochastic properties of the series under investigation before and after the Brexit referendum, and find an increase in the degree of persistence in all cases except for the British pound-yen IV, whose persistence has declined after Brexit. These findings highlight the importance of completing swiftly the negotiations with the European Union (EU) to achieve an appropriate Brexit deal.

Purpose
While numerous empirical studies have tried to model and forecast the oil price volatility over the years, such attempts using the crude oil volatility index (OVX) rarely exist. In order to conceal this void, the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether including OVX in the realized volatility (RV) models improve the accuracy of predictions.


Design/methodology/approach
At the empirical stage, the authors employ several measures to frame the RV of crude oil futures returns. In particular, the authors use three different range-based RV estimators recommended by Parkinson (1980), Rogers and Satchell (1991) and Alizadeh et al. (2002), respectively.


Findings
The findings reveal that the information content of crude OVX helps to provide more accurate volatility predictions in comparison to the base-line RV model which contains only historical oil volatilities. Besides, the forecast encompassing test further suggests that the modified RV model (when OVX is introduced in the base-line RV model) forecast encompasses the conventional RV forecast in majority of the cases.


Practical implications
Since forecasting oil price volatility plays a vital role in portfolio optimization, derivatives pricing, optimum asset allocation decisions and risk management, the findings of this study thus carry important implications for energy economists, investors and policymakers.


Originality/value
This paper adds to the existing literature, since it is one of the initial studies to explore whether OVX is informative about the realized variance of the US oil market returns. The findings recommend that the information content of oil implied volatilities should be taken into account when modeling the US oil market volatility. In addition, range-based measures should be utilized while estimating the RV.

AbstractThis paper compares the ability of four valuation models — the Pure Diffusion model of Black‐Scholes‐Merton, the Absolute Diffusion and Pure Jump models of Cox‐Ross, and the mixed Jump‐Diffusion model of Merton — to explain the observed behavior of market prices of foreign currency options. The empirical tests are based on a comparison of the pattern of implied volatilities obtained from option market prices and the Black‐Scholes‐Merton model with those expected theoretically if exchange rates follow the four stochastic processes specified above. The results of the comparison show that the pattern of implied volatilities is most consistent with the mixed Jump‐Diffusion model.