Abstract We study the effects of professionals' survey-based inflation expectations on inflation for a large number of 36 economies, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We find that inflation expectations have a significantly positive effect on inflation. We also find that the effect of inflation expectations on inflation is significantly larger when inflation is higher. This suggests that second-round effects via the effects of higher inflation expectations on inflation are more relevant in a high-inflation environment.
Objective: Two studies were conducted to develop an understanding of factors that drive user expectations when navigating between discrete elements on a display via a limited degree-of-freedom cursor control device. Background: For the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle spacecraft, a free-floating cursor with a graphical user interface (GUI) would require an unachievable level of accuracy due to expected acceleration and vibration conditions during dynamic phases of flight. Therefore, Orion program proposed using a "caged" cursor to "jump" from one controllable element (node) on the GUI to another. However, nodes are not likely to be arranged on a rectilinear grid, and so movements between nodes are not obvious. Method: Proximity between nodes, direction of nodes relative to each other, and context features may all contribute to user cursor movement expectations. In an initial study, we examined user expectations based on the nodes themselves. In a second study, we examined the effect of context features on user expectations. Results: The studies established that perceptual grouping effects influence expectations to varying degrees. Based on these results, a simple rule set was developed to support users in building a straightforward mental model that closely matches their natural expectations for cursor movement. Conclusion: The results will help designers of display formats take advantage of the natural context-driven cursor movement expectations of users to reduce navigation errors, increase usability, and decrease access time. Application: The rules set and guidelines tie theory to practice and can be applied in environments where vibration or acceleration are significant, including spacecraft, aircraft, and automobiles.
Abstract Taking the well-documented high educational expectations among immigrant parents as a point of departure, we explore how average achievement in a class influences parental educational expectations. Specifically, we investigate whether reference group (i.e., big-fish-little-pond) effects can account for immigrant parents' higher educational expectations for their children compared to nonimmigrant parents. We address this question by applying a multilevel (mediation) analysis to a representative sample of German fourth graders and their parents. To test how robust our findings are to our data-analytical decisions, we additionally conduct a multiverse analysis. We find consistent evidence across 4,608 model specifications that parents' educational expectations are higher when their child attends a low-achieving class compared to a high-achieving class, even after controlling for students' individual school performance, socioeconomic background, and a variety of performance related confounders. Furthermore, (average) class achievement partially mediates the relationship between immigrant status and parental expectations. Students with immigrant parents are more likely to attend low-achieving classes, which is positively related to higher parental expectations. Our results suggest that big-fish-little-pond effects also operate in parents' evaluation processes of their children's educational attainment.
The aim of this article is to show how sport can matter in international relations. Sport can be a subject or a tool of international relations. It can be used by states or geopolitical blocks to display their alleged superiority or any other desired characteristic. Governments may desire athletic victories, which are meant to imply, for example, the power of the state and its political and economic system. Participation in sport can also be used for political reasons on an international scale; a number of political objectives can be achieved by states by participating (or not) in sports events. Not only is sport affected by a country's policies, but on certain occasions sports events can influence states.
The aim of this article is to show how sport can matter in international relations. Sport can be a subject or a tool of international relations. It can be used by states or geopolitical blocks to display their alleged superiority or any other desired characteristic. Governments may desire athletic victories, which are meant to imply, for example, the power of the state and its political and economic system. Participation in sport can also be used for political reasons on an international scale; a number of political objectives can be achieved by states by participating (or not) in sports events. Not only is sport affected by a country's policies, but on certain occasions sports events can influence states.
In: Administrative science quarterly: ASQ ; dedicated to advancing the understanding of administration through empirical investigation and theoretical analysis, Band 11, Heft 2, S. 207-223
AbstractHigher education has massively expanded around the world, yet we know little about the political consequences of this expansion. Students generally have overly optimistic expectations about the returns to educational investment, and the effects of unmet expectations on graduates' political behavior have been overlooked. I study this phenomenon in Chile with observational and experimental methods, using unique panel survey data collected from new graduates covering 72% of higher education enrollment. The survey tracks students before and after they enter the labor market and includes an experiment that induces variation in their expectations. The panel data reveals that 65% of students have unmet expectations, and both methods indicate that this induces a shift toward progovernment/proequality ideology. Overall, this study shows that the gap between aspirations and reality upon graduation can be an important driver of political attitudes.
Abstract We examine the endogenous choice of commitment device to consumers' expectations with network effects. Under Cournot competition, we show that choosing commitment to expectations for each firm is a dominant strategy regardless of the strength of network effects. However, under Bertrand competition, three types of commitment with both/no commitment/multiple emerge in equilibrium depending on the strength of network effects. Thus, we obtain different Pareto efficiency between Bertrand and Cournot competition, depending on the intensity of competition.
