Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-Varying Effects
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1776
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In: ECB Working Paper No. 1776
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In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 124, S. 104075
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 24/2018
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Working paper
In: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 9/2017
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Working paper
In: Banque de France Working Paper, March 2019, WP #714
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Working paper
In: Human factors: the journal of the Human Factors Society, Band 56, Heft 3, S. 535-552
ISSN: 1547-8181
Objective: Two studies were conducted to develop an understanding of factors that drive user expectations when navigating between discrete elements on a display via a limited degree-of-freedom cursor control device. Background: For the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle spacecraft, a free-floating cursor with a graphical user interface (GUI) would require an unachievable level of accuracy due to expected acceleration and vibration conditions during dynamic phases of flight. Therefore, Orion program proposed using a "caged" cursor to "jump" from one controllable element (node) on the GUI to another. However, nodes are not likely to be arranged on a rectilinear grid, and so movements between nodes are not obvious. Method: Proximity between nodes, direction of nodes relative to each other, and context features may all contribute to user cursor movement expectations. In an initial study, we examined user expectations based on the nodes themselves. In a second study, we examined the effect of context features on user expectations. Results: The studies established that perceptual grouping effects influence expectations to varying degrees. Based on these results, a simple rule set was developed to support users in building a straightforward mental model that closely matches their natural expectations for cursor movement. Conclusion: The results will help designers of display formats take advantage of the natural context-driven cursor movement expectations of users to reduce navigation errors, increase usability, and decrease access time. Application: The rules set and guidelines tie theory to practice and can be applied in environments where vibration or acceleration are significant, including spacecraft, aircraft, and automobiles.
In: European societies, S. 1-51
ISSN: 1469-8307
Abstract
Taking the well-documented high educational expectations among immigrant parents as a point of departure, we explore how average achievement in a class influences parental educational expectations. Specifically, we investigate whether reference group (i.e., big-fish-little-pond) effects can account for immigrant parents' higher educational expectations for their children compared to nonimmigrant parents. We address this question by applying a multilevel (mediation) analysis to a representative sample of German fourth graders and their parents. To test how robust our findings are to our data-analytical decisions, we additionally conduct a multiverse analysis. We find consistent evidence across 4,608 model specifications that parents' educational expectations are higher when their child attends a low-achieving class compared to a high-achieving class, even after controlling for students' individual school performance, socioeconomic background, and a variety of performance related confounders. Furthermore, (average) class achievement partially mediates the relationship between immigrant status and parental expectations. Students with immigrant parents are more likely to attend low-achieving classes, which is positively related to higher parental expectations. Our results suggest that big-fish-little-pond effects also operate in parents' evaluation processes of their children's educational attainment.
In: International studies: interdisciplinary political and cultural journal ; the journal of University of Lodz, Band 15, Heft 1, S. 49-74
ISSN: 2300-8695
The aim of this article is to show how sport can matter in international relations. Sport can be a subject or a tool of international relations. It can be used by states or geopolitical blocks to display their alleged superiority or any other desired characteristic. Governments may desire athletic victories, which are meant to imply, for example, the power of the state and its political and economic system. Participation in sport can also be used for political reasons on an international scale; a number of political objectives can be achieved by states by participating (or not) in sports events. Not only is sport affected by a country's policies, but on certain occasions sports events can influence states.
The aim of this article is to show how sport can matter in international relations. Sport can be a subject or a tool of international relations. It can be used by states or geopolitical blocks to display their alleged superiority or any other desired characteristic. Governments may desire athletic victories, which are meant to imply, for example, the power of the state and its political and economic system. Participation in sport can also be used for political reasons on an international scale; a number of political objectives can be achieved by states by participating (or not) in sports events. Not only is sport affected by a country's policies, but on certain occasions sports events can influence states.
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In: Administrative science quarterly: ASQ ; dedicated to advancing the understanding of administration through empirical investigation and theoretical analysis, Band 11, Heft 2, S. 207-223
ISSN: 0001-8392
In: CEBI Working Paper No. 6, 2024
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In: American journal of political science, Band 68, Heft 4, S. 1416-1430
ISSN: 1540-5907
AbstractHigher education has massively expanded around the world, yet we know little about the political consequences of this expansion. Students generally have overly optimistic expectations about the returns to educational investment, and the effects of unmet expectations on graduates' political behavior have been overlooked. I study this phenomenon in Chile with observational and experimental methods, using unique panel survey data collected from new graduates covering 72% of higher education enrollment. The survey tracks students before and after they enter the labor market and includes an experiment that induces variation in their expectations. The panel data reveals that 65% of students have unmet expectations, and both methods indicate that this induces a shift toward progovernment/proequality ideology. Overall, this study shows that the gap between aspirations and reality upon graduation can be an important driver of political attitudes.
In: The B.E. journal of theoretical economics, Band 22, Heft 2, S. 649-668
ISSN: 1935-1704
Abstract
We examine the endogenous choice of commitment device to consumers' expectations with network effects. Under Cournot competition, we show that choosing commitment to expectations for each firm is a dominant strategy regardless of the strength of network effects. However, under Bertrand competition, three types of commitment with both/no commitment/multiple emerge in equilibrium depending on the strength of network effects. Thus, we obtain different Pareto efficiency between Bertrand and Cournot competition, depending on the intensity of competition.
In: Journal of peace research, Band 47, Heft 2, S. 205-215
ISSN: 1460-3578
This study analyzes the impact of media framing on aggregate attitudes and expectations of Israelis toward the Oslo peace process with the Palestinians during a time period of eight years (1995—2003). It presents three main contributions: First, it provides a long-term analysis of the impact of media coverage of a peace process on public opinion, while controlling for the influence of real life events. Second, it presents empirical evidence that the strength of media framing effects varies among different facets of public opinion. Specifically, framing effects are stronger on aggregate future expectations compared with their effects on aggregate current attitudes. The fact that the information transmitted by the media evaluative tone was a central source of influence on future expectations underlines the central role of the media in political and social phenomena. Third, in line with previous studies, it shows that the public response to negative framing is much stronger than to positive framing. This may have a negative effect on a government's ability to rally the public in support of a peace process. Since most media coverage of the peace process and conflict focused on negative developments while ignoring positive ones, the media effect on public opinion was that of peace spoilers.
In: De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 810
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