Suchergebnisse

Although Mozambique has considerable agricultural potential, rural poverty remains extremely high. This paper examines the extent to which global and domestic price distortions affect agricultural production and national poverty. The author develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and micro-simulation model of Mozambique that is linked to the results of a global model. This framework is used to examine the effects of eliminating global and national price distortions. Model results indicate that agriculture is adversely affected by current trade distortions due to policies in the rest of the world. While a removal of all merchandise trade distortions will reduce import prices, it will also raise agricultural production and reduce poverty. By contrast, removing only agricultural price distortions abroad will have little effect on Mozambique's agricultural sector. Model results indicate that Mozambique's own distortions are also biased against agriculture, with producers of processed agricultural products enjoying high protection levels. Removing these distortions causes a significant expansion of agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a reduction in both poverty and inequality. The findings therefore suggest that removing own-country and rest-of-world distortions will have positive implications for agriculture and for the overall economy in Mozambique, and in particular it will reduce its poverty and inequality.

Sub-Saharan Africa's rural population is growing rapidly, and more young people are entering the labour market every year. This raises serious policy questions. Can rural economies absorb enough job seekers? Could better-educated youth transform Africa's rural economies by adopting new technologies and starting businesses? Are policymakers responding to the youth employment challenge? Or will there be widespread unemployment, social instability, and an exodus to cities and abroad? Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa: Beyond Stylized Facts uses survey data to build a nuanced understanding of the constraints and opportunities facing rural youth in Africa. Addressing the questions of Africa's rural youth is currently hampered by major gaps in our knowledge and stylized facts from cross-country trends or studies that do not focus on the core issues. Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa takes a different approach, drawing on household and firm surveys from selected African countries with an explicit focus on rural youth. It argues that a balance between alarm and optimism is warranted, and that Africa's "youth bulge" is not an unprecedented challenge. Jobs in rural areas are limited, but agriculture is transforming and youth are participating, adopting new technologies and running businesses. Governments have adopted youth employment as a priority, but policies often do not address the specific needs of rural populations. Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa emphasizes that by going beyond stylized facts and drawing on more granular analysis, we can design effective policies to turn Africa's youth problem into an opportunity for rural transformation. ; PR ; IFPRI2; CRP2 ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

CRP2; IFPRI5; F Strengthening institutions and governance ; DSGD; PIM ; PR ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

The recent surge in world commodity prices might alter the role of traditional export crops in African economies. While export crops have traditionally been important sources of foreign exchange earnings and government revenues, Ghana is an exceptional case, where a combination of favorable external conditions and internal reforms have made cocoa the driver of growth and poverty reduction. Cocoa's share of agricultural GDP has been increasing rapidly and existing yield gaps and the prospects of continued high world commodity prices suggest further growth potential. We find that increasing cocoa production by around 60,000 tons per annum is needed to support Ghana reaching its middle-income country target. However, cocoa's poverty-growth elasticity is low, thus implying that further growth is unlikely to lead to the large reductions in poverty experienced in the past. Finally, we show that, even with complimentary growth in other sectors, cocoa will continue to dominate agricultural exports over the medium term and that structural diversification remains a key challenge for Ghana. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; DCA; GSSP ; DSGD

Ghana is an emerging success story in Africa and in a couple of years will become the first African country to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving its national poverty rate. The government of Ghana has therefore extended its development vision and recently declared the goal of reaching middle-income-country (MIC) status by 2015. To analyze possible pathways and implications of achieving MIC status, this paper examines other countries' experiences on their way to becoming MICs and emphasizes the important role of growth acceleration, export diversification, and economic structural change in the transformation process. The paper further analyzes Ghana?s growth options and their structural implications using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model recently developed for Ghana. The results of the model simulation suggest that Ghana?s annual GDP growth rate must accelerate from the recent 5.5 percent to 7.6 percent to achieve MIC status by 2015. Unlike in other countries, agriculture in Ghana is likely to remain the mainstay of growth and export earnings, while the role of manufacturing growth in achieving MIC status may be constrained by the manufacturing sector's dependency on agricultural inputs and small size. Services may not become the prime mover of accelerated growth, but improved efficiency in trade, transport, and business services will be a key for growth acceleration in other sectors." -- from Author's Abstract ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP32 ; DSGD

Ghana has made considerable progress over the last 20 years in sustaining economic growth and reducing poverty. The Government of Ghana has declared its new development goal of reaching middle-income status by 2015. Achieving this goal will require Ghana to double its per capita income over the next decade. In this paper we explore the growth experiences of other developing countries that have successfully transformed their economies from situations similar to Ghana's today. Based on the past experiences of these fast growing countries, and using a dynamic general equilibrium model developed for Ghana, we evaluate sources of accelerated growth and their contributions to overall growth and transformation. The authors conclude that, for Ghana to reach middle-income status it will require careful coordination between increasingly complex macroeconomic, industrial and financial market policies, which also require the improvement of institutional capacity of the government to implement such complex policies. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GSSP ; DSGD

African governments have made youth employment a policy priority, and African youth are demanding policies that improve their job prospects. KEY FINDINGS - Africa's working-age population is growing by 20 million a year, and by 2050 will be growing by 30 million a year, raising questions about whether the region can create enough jobs for young people. - Concerns should not be overblown—the share of young people in the working-age population peaked in Africa at roughly 38 percent in 2001, not much larger than the peak share in other developing regions during their own "youth bulges." Africa's rural areas and food systems will have to play a bigger role in absorbing young job seekers than they did in other regions, given the continued growth of rural populations. - Opportunities in food systems for youth may be overestimated: Young farmers who are familiar with information technologies are not necessarily more likely than their elders to adopt improved inputs or increase productivity. Nor are they more likely to operate or work for a nonfarm enterprise or to migrate to large urban centers. - Broad-based development policies that create opportunities for all rural people may do more to support the growing youth population than polices designed specifically for youth. ; PR ; IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies ; DGO; DSGD

Biofuel production can have conflicting impacts on economic growth, food and energy security, and natural resources. Understanding these trade-offs is crucial for designing policies that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This is particularly true in low-income countries, where the need to promote both energy and food security is most pressing. To this end, we develop an integrated modeling framework to simultaneously assess the economic and environmental impacts of producing biofuels in Malawi. We extend earlier studies by incorporating the effects of land use change on crop water use, and the opportunity costs of using scarce agricultural resources for biofuels rather than other export crops. We find that biofuel production is generally pro-poor and reduces food insecurity by raising household incomes. Irrigated outgrower schemes rather than estate farms lead to better economic outcomes, fewer greenhouse gas emissions, and similar crop water requirements. Nevertheless, Malawi must reduce emissions from its ethanol plants in order to access European markets. We also find that the economic and environmental impacts of biofuels are preferable to those of tobacco or soybeans. The European Union has raised the standards expected of biofuel producers, but it should "level the playing field" by applying similar standards to other export crops from developing countries. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; CRP2; D Transforming Agriculture; D.1 Agriculture's role in national development strategy; MaSSP ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)