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Credit Spreads in Illiquid Markets: Model and Implementation
In: Emerging markets, finance and trade: EMFT, Band 48, Heft 6, S. 53-72
ISSN: 1558-0938
Term Structure Estimation in Low-Frequency Transaction Markets: A Kalman Filter Approach with Incomplete Panel-Data
There are two issues that are of central importance in term structure analysis. One is the modeling and estimation of the current term structure of spot rates. The second is the modeling and estimation of the dynamics of the term structure. These two issues have been addressed independently in the literature. The methods that have been proposed assume a sufficiently complete price data set and are generally implemented separately. However, when the methods are applied to markets with sparse bond price, results are unsatisfactory. We develop a method for jointly estimating the current term structure and its dynamics for markets with low-frequency transactions. We propose solving both issues by using a dynamic term structure model estimated from incomplete panel data. To achieve this, we modify the standard Kalman filter approach to deal with the missing-observation problem. In this way, we can use historic price data in a dynamic model to estimate the current term structure. With this approach we are able to obtain an estimate of the current term structure even for days with an arbitrary low number of price observations. The proposed methodology can be applied to a broad class of continuous-time term-structure models with any number of stochastic factors. To show the implementation of the approach, we estimate a three-factor generalized-Vasicek model using Chilean government bond price data. The approach, however, may be used in any market with low-frequency transactions, a common characteristic of many emerging markets.
BASE
Term-structure estimation in markets with infrequent trading
There are two issues that are of central importance in term-structure analysis. One is the modelling and estimation of the current term structure of spot rates. The second is the modelling and estimation of the dynamics of the term structure. These two issues have been addressed independently in the literature. The methods that have been proposed assume a sufficiently complete price data set and are generally implemented separately. However, there are serious problems when these methods are applied to markets with sparse bond prices. We develop a method for jointly estimating the current term-structure and its dynamics for markets with infrequent trading. We propose solving both issues by using a dynamic term-structure model estimated from incomplete panel-data. To achieve this, we modify the standard Kalman filter approach to deal with the missing-observation problem. In this way, we can use historic price data in a dynamic model to estimate the current term structure. With this approach we are able to obtain an estimate of the current term structure even for days with an arbitrary low number of price observations. The proposed methodology can be applied to a broad class of continuous-time term-structure models with any number of stochastic factors. To show the implementation of the approach, we estimate a three-factor generalized-Vasicek model using Chilean government bond price data. The approach, however, may be used in any market with infrequent trading, a common characteristic of many emerging markets. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
BASE
The Real Options Approach to Valuation: Challenges and Opportunities
In: Latin American journal of economics: LAJE ; an open access research journal ; formerly Cuadernos de economía, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 163-177
ISSN: 0719-0433
Are All Credit Default Swap Databases Equal?
In: NBER Working Paper No. w16590
SSRN
Towards a common European monetary union risk free rate
A common European bond would yield a common European Monetary Union risk free rate. We present tentative estimates of this common risk free for the European Monetary Union countries from 2004 to 2009 using variables motivated by a theoretical portfolio selection model. First, we analyze the determinants of EMU sovereign yield spreads and find significant effects of the credit quality, macro, correlation, and liquidity variables. However, their effects are different before and after the current financial crisis, being stronger in the latter period. Robustness tests with different data frequencies, benchmarks, liquidity variables, cross section regressions and balanced panels confirm the initial results. We propose four different estimates of the common risk free rate and show that, in most cases, this common rate could imply savings in borrowing costs for all the countries involved.
BASE
Towards a Common European Monetary Union Risk Free Rate
In: NBER Working Paper No. w15353
SSRN
The stable non-Gaussian asset allocation: a comparison with the classical Gaussian approach
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 27, Heft 6, S. 937-969
ISSN: 0165-1889
Strategic asset allocation
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 21, Heft 8-9, S. 1377-1403
ISSN: 0165-1889
Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices and Pricing Models
In: NBER Working Paper No. w22991
SSRN
SSRN
Expected Returns on Commodity Etfs and Their Underlying Assets
In: JCOMM-D-23-00194
SSRN
Towards a common European monetary union risk free rate
A common European bond would yield a common European Monetary Union risk free rate. We present tentative estimates of this common risk free for the European Monetary Union countries from 2004 to 2009 using variables motivated by a theoretical portfolio selection model. First, we analyze the determinants of EMU sovereign yield spreads and find significant effects of the credit quality, macro, correlation, and liquidity variables. However, their effects are different before and after the current financial crisis, being stronger in the latter period. Robustness tests with different data frequencies, benchmarks, liquidity variables, cross section regressions and balanced panels confirm the initial results. We propose four different estimates of the common risk free rate and show that, in most cases, this common rate could imply savings in borrowing costs for all the countries involved.
BASE