Garonne 2050: un exercice de prospective participative sur la gestion de l'eau du bassin de la Garonne
In: Futuribles: l'anticipation au service de l'action ; revue bimestrielle, Heft 407, S. 57-65
ISSN: 0183-701X, 0337-307X
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In: Futuribles: l'anticipation au service de l'action ; revue bimestrielle, Heft 407, S. 57-65
ISSN: 0183-701X, 0337-307X
World Affairs Online
Cahier du LEF ; 2010-02 ; Forests can contribute to climate mitigation by sequestrating carbon in forest biomass andby replacing fossil-fuel with fuelwood, with potentially conflicting implications for forest management.The present paper assesses the mitigation and the economic impacts of a "stock" policy(payment for sequestration in situ), a "substitution" policy (subsidy to fuelwood consumption),and a combination thereof on the French forest sector. The policies are consistent in that theyare based on the same social cost of carbon. To do so, we use the French Forest Sector Model(FFSM), which combines a dynamic model of French timber resource, and a dynamic partial equilibriummodel of the French forest sector. Simulations show that over the 2010-2020 period,the stock policy is the only one that performs better than Business As Usual (BAU) in terms ofcarbon. Over this period of time, the cumulative substitution benefits of the substitution policyare not sufficient to offset the loss of carbon in standing forests. However, the stock policy hasalso negative impacts on consumers welfare, and increasingly high costs as carbon in excess ofBAU is accumulated in forests. Combining both policies brings intermediate results and is thusless effective than focusing on a single policy. ; Les forêts contribuent à la lutte contre le changement climatique en séquestrant du carbone dans la biomasse, et en remplaçant les énergies fossiles par le bois-énergie. Cet article analyse les impacts, sur la filière forestière française, économiques et en terme de bilan carbone, d'une politique de "stock" (paiement pour séquestration in situ), d'une politique de substitution (subvention à la consommation de bois énergie), et d'une combinaison de ces deux politiques. Pour cela, nous utilisons le Modèle du Secteur Forestier Français (FFSM), qui combine un modèle dynamique de la ressource forestière française, et un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique du secteur forestier français. Nos simulations couvrent la période 2010-2020. Nous montrons que la politique de stock est la seule qui a un bilan carbone positif sur la période considérée. Sur cette période, l'effet de substitution cumulé d'une politique de substitution est insuffisant pour compenser le destockage massif de la ressource. Cependant la politique de stock est celle qui pèse le plus sur le bien être des consommateurs. La combinaison des deux politiques conduit à des résultats intermédiaires et est donc moins effective que de se concentrer sur une seule politique.
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Cahier du LEF ; 2010-02 ; Forests can contribute to climate mitigation by sequestrating carbon in forest biomass andby replacing fossil-fuel with fuelwood, with potentially conflicting implications for forest management.The present paper assesses the mitigation and the economic impacts of a "stock" policy(payment for sequestration in situ), a "substitution" policy (subsidy to fuelwood consumption),and a combination thereof on the French forest sector. The policies are consistent in that theyare based on the same social cost of carbon. To do so, we use the French Forest Sector Model(FFSM), which combines a dynamic model of French timber resource, and a dynamic partial equilibriummodel of the French forest sector. Simulations show that over the 2010-2020 period,the stock policy is the only one that performs better than Business As Usual (BAU) in terms ofcarbon. Over this period of time, the cumulative substitution benefits of the substitution policyare not sufficient to offset the loss of carbon in standing forests. However, the stock policy hasalso negative impacts on consumers welfare, and increasingly high costs as carbon in excess ofBAU is accumulated in forests. Combining both policies brings intermediate results and is thusless effective than focusing on a single policy. ; Les forêts contribuent à la lutte contre le changement climatique en séquestrant du carbone dans la biomasse, et en remplaçant les énergies fossiles par le bois-énergie. Cet article analyse les impacts, sur la filière forestière française, économiques et en terme de bilan carbone, d'une politique de "stock" (paiement pour séquestration in situ), d'une politique de substitution (subvention à la consommation de bois énergie), et d'une combinaison de ces deux politiques. Pour cela, nous utilisons le Modèle du Secteur Forestier Français (FFSM), qui combine un modèle dynamique de la ressource forestière française, et un modèle d'équilibre partiel dynamique du secteur forestier français. Nos simulations couvrent la période 2010-2020. Nous ...
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Reinhabitating means to stimulate a new attitude towards the use of dwellings and towards the necessity and nature of refurbishing, thinking about a new or different use or just about extending the life cycle of that commonly considered old. Reflecting on the use of our houses from this point of view, turns out to be especially suitable in the actual economical time of crisis, and notably in a country dealing with an oversized housing development. A newspaper's new allows us to enlighten this situation. In 2004, more houses were built in Spain than altogether in Germany, France and Italy. In other words, a country with a population of 44 million inhabitants built more houses than three countries whose population comes altogether to 204 million inhabitants, almost five times the amount of Spain inhabitants. Under these circumstances and considering the high amount of empty dwellings, secondary residences, as well as unoccupied industrial and services facilities in good conditions, a research about new housing seems to be, nevertheless, a perfectly deferrable matter. More than a century ago it was published "The Practicon. Complete treatise on cooking and reusing the leftovers". In that text Angel Muro, the author, defended a cuisine based on using the leftovers of meals and managing to cook with them delicious courses. We think that the house, its conception, its equipment and its form, remain buried by an avalanche of premises which always try to find an ideal house, as an impossible research. Perhaps studying the way of reinhabitating pre-existing houses, does not finally turn out to be just a naïve effort, but the most honest way to approach the actual housing situation while enabling an open-ended process of improvement. During 2009 and 2010 Habitar, a research group of the Catalan Polytechnic University, worked on this concept applied to the city of Madrid thanks to an I+D Research project granted by the Spanish Government, which concluded with the diffusion of the results by means of six exhibitions and nine small books. To take advantage of the leftovers of the Spanish opulence edge is the main aim of the present research, that pretend to assign a new use to preexistences. We do not refer to refurbishing or to interventions which pursue the renewal of a building, but to the proposal of modification of the use of the building itself. Reinhabitating does not mean restoring. Reinhabitating is reusing architecture, but just modifying the way of using it. It has not to do with plastic interventions, but with the how itself. In this article we will explain our experience with the popularization of these concepts which were applied to the house, to the street and to the city. ; This work has been supported by the "Associació Catalana d'Universitats Públiques" under the project grant RecerCaixa 2010 - Rehabitar "Rehabitar: la casa, el carrer i la ciutat". ; Postprint (published version)
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Reinhabitating means to stimulate a new attitude towards the use of dwellings and towards the necessity and nature of refurbishing, thinking about a new or different use or just about extending the life cycle of that commonly considered old. Reflecting on the use of our houses from this point of view, turns out to be especially suitable in the actual economical time of crisis, and notably in a country dealing with an oversized housing development. A newspaper's new allows us to enlighten this situation. In 2004, more houses were built in Spain than altogether in Germany, France and Italy. In other words, a country with a population of 44 million inhabitants built more houses than three countries whose population comes altogether to 204 million inhabitants, almost five times the amount of Spain inhabitants. Under these circumstances and considering the high amount of empty dwellings, secondary residences, as well as unoccupied industrial and services facilities in good conditions, a research about new housing seems to be, nevertheless, a perfectly deferrable matter. More than a century ago it was published "The Practicon. Complete treatise on cooking and reusing the leftovers". In that text Angel Muro, the author, defended a cuisine based on using the leftovers of meals and managing to cook with them delicious courses. We think that the house, its conception, its equipment and its form, remain buried by an avalanche of premises which always try to find an ideal house, as an impossible research. Perhaps studying the way of reinhabitating pre-existing houses, does not finally turn out to be just a naïve effort, but the most honest way to approach the actual housing situation while enabling an open-ended process of improvement. During 2009 and 2010 Habitar, a research group of the Catalan Polytechnic University, worked on this concept applied to the city of Madrid thanks to an I+D Research project granted by the Spanish Government, which concluded with the diffusion of the results by means of six exhibitions and nine small books. To take advantage of the leftovers of the Spanish opulence edge is the main aim of the present research, that pretend to assign a new use to preexistences. We do not refer to refurbishing or to interventions which pursue the renewal of a building, but to the proposal of modification of the use of the building itself. Reinhabitating does not mean restoring. Reinhabitating is reusing architecture, but just modifying the way of using it. It has not to do with plastic interventions, but with the how itself. In this article we will explain our experience with the popularization of these concepts which were applied to the house, to the street and to the city. ; Postprint (published version)
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Integrating water management models and forward-looking developed with the involvement of local experts and stakeholders raises numerous challenges. However, such integration can shed light on long-term challenges for sustainable water management, in particular in the context of highly uncertain future related to climate change impact, population growth and economic development. This integration was applied within the French national research project R²D² 2050 (Risk, water Resources and sustainable Development within the Durance river basin in 2050) to assess future water availability and potential risks of unsatisfied water demands. The results of the R²D² 2050 project could help decision makers to define adaptation strategies that can support for economic development while preserving the natural capital of the Durance basin. The main steps followed for developing forward-looking territorial scenarios are presented, along with conclusion on future balances between water availability and demand from the main water uses. ; En région Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur, des inquiétudes pèsent sur l'équilibre fragile entre ressources disponibles et besoins en eau du fait de probables évolutions du climat et des activités socio-économiques sur le territoire. Afin d'élaborer une vision prospective de la gestion de l'eau à l'échelle des différents secteurs géographiques alimentés par les eaux de la Durance, un projet de recherche associant acteurs locaux et experts a été engagé. Il a permis d'étudier la vulnérabilité du mode de gestion actuel vis-à-vis des changements globaux et d'identifier les enjeux à venir pour la ressource en eau et ses usages (dont les services écosystémiques). Cet article se concentre sur la construction des trajectoires socio-économiques de développement territorial et sur leur conséquence sur les usages de l'eau et sur l'équilibre offre/demande.
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In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 14, Heft 2, S. 295-308
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) aims at estimating quantiles with large return periods for an extreme discharge variable. Many FFA implementations are used in operational practice in France. These implementations range from the estimation of a pre-specified distribution to continuous simulation approaches using a rainfall simulator coupled with a rainfall–runoff model. This diversity of approaches raises questions regarding the limits of each implementation and calls for a nation-wide comparison of their predictive performances. This paper presents the results of a national comparison of the main FFA implementations used in France. More accurately, eight implementations are considered, corresponding to the local, regional and local-regional estimation of Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions, as well as the local and regional versions of a continuous simulation approach. A data-based comparison framework is applied to these eight competitors to evaluate their predictive performances in terms of reliability and stability, using daily flow data from more than 1000 gauging stations in France. Results from this comparative exercise suggest that two implementations dominate their competitors in terms of predictive performances, namely the local version of the continuous simulation approach and the local-regional estimation of a GEV distribution. More specific conclusions include the following: (i) the Gumbel distribution is not suitable for Mediterranean catchments, since this distribution demonstrably leads to an underestimation of flood quantiles; (ii) the local estimation of a GEV distribution is not recommended, because the difficulty in estimating the shape parameter results in frequent predictive failures; (iii) all the purely regional implementations evaluated in this study displayed a quite poor reliability, suggesting that prediction in completely ungauged catchments remains a challenge.
Depuis plusieurs années, des chercheurs du Centre d'économie de l'environnement de Montpellier (CEE-M) travaillent avec des partenaires de terrain pour évaluer l'acceptabilité et les performances d'instruments incitatifs innovants susceptibles d'encourager les agriculteurs à adopter ou à maintenir des pratiques plus respectueuses de l'environnement. Ce document présente de façon synthétique certains de ces instruments et les méthodes d'évaluation de leur attractivité et de leur impact. Un guide plus complet présente des exemples d'application et est disponible en ligne (ci-dessous "Voir aussi").
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Depuis plusieurs années, des chercheurs du Centre d'économie de l'environnement de Montpellier (CEE-M) travaillent avec des partenaires de terrain pour évaluer l'acceptabilité et les performances d'instruments incitatifs innovants susceptibles d'encourager les agriculteurs à adopter ou à maintenir des pratiques plus respectueuses de l'environnement. Ce document présente de façon synthétique certains de ces instruments et les méthodes d'évaluation de leur attractivité et de leur impact. Un guide plus complet présente des exemples d'application et est disponible en ligne (ci-dessous "Voir aussi").
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The EU-FP7 XEROCHORE project is a Support Action (SA) that for the first time brings together three interrelated drought aspects at the European scale, namely (1) the natural system (climate and hydrological systems), (2) impacts (socio-economic and environmental), and (3) drought management and policy. It compiles a roadmap that includes the state-of-the-art and identifies research gaps in these three aspects. Moreover, it provides guidance on appropriate responses for stakeholders. XEROCHORE's outcome contributes toward a future European Drought Policy, in accordance with the EU-Water Framework Directive (WFD) and other related EU legislation and actions.
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The EU-FP7 XEROCHORE project is a Support Action (SA) that for the first time brings together three interrelated drought aspects at the European scale, namely (1) the natural system (climate and hydrological systems), (2) impacts (socio-economic and environmental), and (3) drought management and policy. It compiles a roadmap that includes the state-of-the-art and identifies research gaps in these three aspects. Moreover, it provides guidance on appropriate responses for stakeholders. XEROCHORE's outcome contributes toward a future European Drought Policy, in accordance with the EU-Water Framework Directive (WFD) and other related EU legislation and actions.
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Dans le cadre de la tenue de la COP 21 à Paris le Commissariat Général au développement Durable "direction Recherche & Innovation" a publié un document intitulé : les connaissances scientifiques au service de la COP 21. Il s'agit d'un florilège de projets de recherche conduits sur la période 2008-2015 du programme "Gestion et impacts du changement climatique". L'objectif est de donner un éclairage grâce aux résultats de la recherche représentant un apport aux politiques publiques, de montrer ainsi les liens étroits qui existent entre connaissance et action, savoir et décision.
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Dans le cadre de la tenue de la COP 21 à Paris le Commissariat Général au développement Durable "direction Recherche & Innovation" a publié un document intitulé : les connaissances scientifiques au service de la COP 21. Il s'agit d'un florilège de projets de recherche conduits sur la période 2008-2015 du programme "Gestion et impacts du changement climatique". L'objectif est de donner un éclairage grâce aux résultats de la recherche représentant un apport aux politiques publiques, de montrer ainsi les liens étroits qui existent entre connaissance et action, savoir et décision.
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Dans le cadre de la tenue de la COP 21 à Paris le Commissariat Général au développement Durable "direction Recherche & Innovation" a publié un document intitulé : les connaissances scientifiques au service de la COP 21. Il s'agit d'un florilège de projets de recherche conduits sur la période 2008-2015 du programme "Gestion et impacts du changement climatique". L'objectif est de donner un éclairage grâce aux résultats de la recherche représentant un apport aux politiques publiques, de montrer ainsi les liens étroits qui existent entre connaissance et action, savoir et décision.
BASE
Dans le cadre de la tenue de la COP 21 à Paris le Commissariat Général au développement Durable "direction Recherche & Innovation" a publié un document intitulé : les connaissances scientifiques au service de la COP 21. Il s'agit d'un florilège de projets de recherche conduits sur la période 2008-2015 du programme "Gestion et impacts du changement climatique". L'objectif est de donner un éclairage grâce aux résultats de la recherche représentant un apport aux politiques publiques, de montrer ainsi les liens étroits qui existent entre connaissance et action, savoir et décision.
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