Suchergebnisse

Following Clarida and Taylor, the term structure of forward exchange premiums can be interpreted as multiple cointegration vectors, if it is assumed that departures from the risk‐neutral efficient markets hypothesis are stationary. This hypothesis is tested using spot rates and one‐month and three‐month forward rates for six European countries during the 1920s floating rate era. Beginning in late 1924, speculation about a return to gold may have resulted in a non‐stationary forward premium. However, except for this speculative period, the term structure of forward premiums was stationary for three currencies. Thus the empirical results presented are broadly consistent with the analysis of Taylor and McMahon, MacDonald and Taylor and Miller and Sutherland.

This article tests a number of hypotheses about foreign policy decision making within parliamentary democracies. First it explores the origins of debates among decision-makers. Are deliberations provoked by alternative organizational perspectives or by conflicting ideological orientations? Second, it asks how debates are resolved. On the one hand, it has been suggested that, because each minister has an equal vote, a compromise between decision-makers must be reached. On the other hand, it has been argued that the Prime Minister exerts considerable control and power in foreign policy matters in relation to other decision-makers. These questions were studied with the aid of data collected from a sample of 97 decision episodes between 1949 and 1982, where the Israeli government discussed how to respond to low-intensity agression against Israeli citizens and soldiers. The results of this research demonstrate that internal debates are poorly associated with organizational or political diversity. Instead group size seems to be more important, although the relationship is not linear. In any case, the discussions usually concluded in a consensus around the Prime Minister's policy of choice, thus indicating that he or she is the paramount decision-maker. (European Journal of Political Research / FUB)

▪ Abstract  Although millions of Americans take psychoactive medicines (e.g. Prozac and Ritalin), few social scientists believe biological theories and findings should be integrated with research on human behavior. Four topics illustrate current studies linking politics and the life sciences: (a) Developments in genetics and medicine indicate that governmental policies have greatly underrated the dangers posed by radiation and the social transformations that will result from DNA sequencing. (b) Research on brain structures and neurochemistry shows how toxic chemicals undermine normal emotions and behavior. Heavy metal burdens are higher in violent criminals, and exposure to these toxins is significantly correlated with rates of violence (controlling for socioeconomic, ethnic, and demographic factors). (c) An untested chemical used to treat water supplied to 140 million Americans significantly increases both odds of dangerous lead uptake and behavioral dysfunctions in children and adults. (d) The complexity of gene-environment interactions challenges accepted theories of gender, sociopolitical inequalities, ethnocentrism, and history. Such research in biopolitics can illuminate policy controversies in education, substance abuse, and crime.

THE PRODUCTION OF NARRATIVES OF FEAR AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DANGER ARE NOT THE CONSEQUENCE OF ERROR OR MISPERCEPTION OR INTELLIGENCE FAILURES, AS THE SECURITY LITERATURE MIGHT HAVE IT. THEY ARE PART AND PARCEL OF THE PRODUCTION AND REPRODUCTION OF THE SOVEREIGN, AUTONOMOUS NATION-STATE, WHOSE ROLE AND AUTHORITY DEPEND ON MAINTAINING THE APPROPRIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN, ON THE ONE HAND, CITIZEN AND STATE AND, ON THE OTHER, THAT STATE AND ITS COUNTERPARTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL "SYSTEM."

THIS ARTICLE LOOKS AT THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM AND COUNTER-TERRORISM BY EXAMINING THE PAST. FIRST, IT COMPARES THE CAPTURE IN NAIROBI, KENYA, OF ABDULLAH OCALAN, LEADER OF THE KURDISTAN WORKERS' PARTY (PKK) IN FEBRUARY 1999 WITH THE SIMILAR CAPTURE OF THE PALESTINIAN TERRORIST ABU DAOUD SOME TWO DECADES EARLIER. SECOND, IT EXAMINES TWO DISCOURSES THAT HAPPENED SOME 18 YEARS APART: ONE IN 1980 (AND THE LATE SEVENTIES) AND ONE IN 1999 (AND THE LATE NINETIES). THESE TWO COMPARISONS REVEAL MUCH ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF TERRORISM. THEY ALSO MAY HELP EXPLAIN WHY CURRENT (PRIMARILY) AMERICAN DISCOURSE ON THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM MAY BE BOTH MISLEADING AS FAR AS EUROPE IS CONCERNED AND, MORE IMPORTANTLY, DANGEROUS IN TERMS OF MISREPRESENTING FUTURE THREATS AND BLINDING EVERYONE TO MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS.