Modelers v. Pollsters: The Election Forecasts Debate
In: Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 10-14
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In: Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 10-14
In: The Harvard international journal of press, politics, Band 6, Heft 2, S. 10-14
ISSN: 1081-180X
Discusses the 2000 presidential campaign during which academic modelers predicted victory for Democratic candidate Al Gore, when public opinion polls showed Republican candidate George W. Bush in the lead.
In: French politics and society, Band 16, Heft 2, S. 43-51
ISSN: 0882-1267
World Affairs Online
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 31, Heft 3, S. 315-325
ISSN: 1475-6765
Abstract. Standard economic voting models assume a dominant locus of policy responsibility, a single chief executive whose powers are fixed by certain inviolate institutional rules. The president‐centred US system serves as the paradigm here. However, economic voting may occur under a dual executive, whose powers change in response to the institutional rules themselves. France represents this second scenario. There are two executives, the President and the Prime Minister. Under conditions of cohabitation, with a partisan division of the power between the two offices, economic voting becomes more sophisticated. According to data from the 1993–1995 cohabitation, voters perceived that the Prime Minister, not the President, was responsible for the economy. Therefore, in the 1995 presidential contest, they directed their economic evaluations at the Gaullist party of the Prime Minister, not the Socialist party of the President.
In: European journal of political research: official journal of the European Consortium for Political Research, Band 31, Heft 3, S. 315-325
ISSN: 0304-4130
World Affairs Online
In: Electoral Studies, Band 15, Heft 4, S. 513-528
In: American political science review, Band 90, Heft 1, S. 222-223
ISSN: 1537-5943
In: Electoral studies: an international journal, Band 15, Heft 4, S. 513-528
ISSN: 0261-3794
In: European Journal of Political Economy, Band 7, Heft 4, S. 487-496
In: Political behavior, Band 10, Heft 1, S. 5-21
ISSN: 1573-6687
In: American journal of political science, Band 30, Heft 2, S. 315
ISSN: 1540-5907
In: American journal of political science: AJPS, Band 30, Heft 2, S. 315-346
ISSN: 0092-5853
World Affairs Online
In: American journal of political science, Band 29, Heft 2, S. 348
ISSN: 1540-5907
In: Revue française de science politique, Band 35, Heft 6, S. 1080-1090
ISSN: 0035-2950
World Affairs Online
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 53
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965