Suchergebnisse

This paper presents firm level evidence on the change of non-manual wage premia and employment shares in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of aggregate wage premia and employment shares hides offsetting disaggregate forces. First, while technical progress raises the relative demand for skilled labour witjin firms, demand changes associated with exports reduce the relative demand for skills. Second, within the classof non manual workers, wage premia and employment shares of executives rise substantially, whereas those of clerks fall in a similar proportion. We also find that the export ststus of firms plays a key role in explaining labour market dynamics, as exporters account for most of both demand-related and technology-related shifts. Overall, our results for Italy question the general validity of the conventional view that emphasizes the role of labour market institutions, as opposed to trade and technology, in determining wage and employment dynamics in continental Europe.

This paper studies the resilience of inter-ethnic marriages in Italy through the lenses of marriage duration by means of survival and treatment-effect analyses. Our main findings are that inter-ethnic marriages have a significantly higher risk of separation even when we control for social and economic characteristics of the spouses; however, when we restrict the analysis to more recent marriages, we observe that co- and inter-ethnic marriages converge in longevity. Finally, we find evidence of self-selection into inter-ethnic marriages. Overall our findings points to a society that is becoming increasingly open to cultural and ethnic diversity, as well as more secular.

This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia do to so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.

This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia to do so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.

This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia do to so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.

This paper employs the most recent Input Output tables to discuss the Italian lockdown after the COVID-19 epidemics. We define "basic activities" and derive a ranking of industries which more intensively contribute to them. Confronting our results with the choices of the Italian government, we find that these were broadly correct in terms of industrial composition. However, we find that the lockdown of industries such as construction, real estate and manufacture of basic metals reveal a very conservative preferences in terms of the target share of output of essential activities (below 85 %).

This paper employs the most recent Input Output tables to discuss the Italian lockdown after the COVID-19 epidemics. We define "basic activities" and derive a ranking of industries which more intensively contribute to them. Confronting our results with the choices of the Italian government, we find that these were broadly correct in terms of industrial composition. However, we find that the lockdown of industries such as construction, real estate and manufacture of basic metals reveal a very conservative preferences in terms of the target share of output of essential activities (below 85 %).

Most new EU member states (NMS) need further fiscal adjustment to support economic growth and macroeconomic stability. In this context, achieving income convergence with other EU members rests more with maintaining productivity growth, attracting foreign savings, and improving investment efficiency than with increasing government spending (including for infrastructure). Additional institutional fiscal reforms, aimed at improving expenditure efficiency and facilitating private sector investment, will be needed to support these objectives. However, further fiscal adjustment and reforms do not necessarily need to depress public investment. New financing options for public investment - including from various EU funds and through public-private partnerships - can ease existing fiscal and macroeconomic constraints, but present both new opportunities and challenges that need to be handled carefully.