Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI's IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D are estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) is 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond.

Abstract
Using a multi-year, spatially diversified randomised controlled trial spanning two African countries, this paper explores whether a complementary bundle of genetic and financial technologies can boost the resilience and productivity of small-scale farmers. The analysis shows that both moderate droughts and more severe yield losses undermine the resilience of control-group households, and that these shocks have long-lasting effects as farmers invest and produce less following shocks. Severe yield shocks also increase hunger and food insecurity. The genetic technology—drought-tolerant seeds—provides economically significant protection against mid-season drought and mitigates the long-term drop in farm productivity seen in the control group. The financial technology—satellite-based index insurance—offsets the long-term consequences of severe yield losses that are not mitigated by the drought-tolerant seeds. Finally, the analysis shows that treatment-group farmers who experienced shocks and saw the technologies in action subsequently increased their agricultural investment beyond pre-shock levels, an effect we call the resilience dividend. Unfortunately, this apparent experiential learning cuts both ways. Farmers who did not experience the efficacy of the risk management technologies backed away from using them. Our findings thus showcase how genetic and financial risk-mitigating technologies can offer farmers more complete protection, as well as the challenge of inducing sustained uptake of technologies that are midway between experience and credence goods and only infrequently reveal their benefits.