Since the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 31, 2019, COVID-19 pandemic has been spreading to many countries in the world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused a major global crisis, with 554,767 total confirmed cases, 484,570 total recovered cases, and 12,306 deaths in Iraq as of February 2, 2020. In the absence of any effective therapeutics or drugs and with an unknown epidemiological life cycle, predictive mathematical models can aid in the understanding of both control and management of coronavirus disease. Among the important factors that helped the rapid spread of the epidemic are immigration, travelers, foreign workers, and foreign students. In this work, we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, involving immigrants' effects with the possibility of re-infection. Firstly, we studied the positivity and roundedness of the solution of the proposed model. The stability results of the model at the disease-free equilibrium point were presented when . Further, it was proven that the pandemic equilibrium point will persist uniformly when . Moreover, we confirmed the occurrence of the local bifurcation (saddle-node, pitchfork, and transcritical). Finally, theoretical analysis and numerical results were shown to be consistent.
Abstract Business record keeping, along with business planning, are foundational steps in businesses moving from informal stature to contributing to the capitalization of assets. Thus, the transitioning of informal businesses to business record keeping and planning is significant for economic development. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there is a relationship between the gender of informal business owners and their engagement in business record keeping and planning in an emerging economy. We take advantage of a unique data set on informal enterprises in Iraq to show that women, versus male, leaders of informal businesses are more likely to adopt business record keeping and formal business planning. Following the foundational theories of Max Weber (Gerth and Mills 2014), we attribute our results to groups that are excluded from dominant relationship networks relying more on rational bureaucracy. Results will be of great interest to scholars and policymakers interested in the impacts of gender differences on financial development.
We introduce a mode l to describe the evolution of bacterial meningitis epidemics in a non constant population. We derive the value of the basic reproduction number of our model. We analy z e the local and global stability of the disease free and endemic equilibria. We confirm the results by a numerical analysis of the model.
Why did some countries decline to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly's first emergency session since 1997? Our research investigates the various economic, military, political, geographic, and historical factors that may have influenced the voting behavior of these countries in favor of Russia. Our Probit regressions reveal that the probability of voting in favor of Russia is significantly and robustly higher in countries that have defense cooperation agreements with Russia, have a longer history of leftist governments, are major recipients of Russian aid, have political similarities with Russia, and have no history of war with the Soviet Union.
The objective of this study was to determine the objectives of goat production, related management practices and their role in the live of rural poor through Participatory Rural Appraisal at two experimental sites including Bahawalpur (Site I) and Faisalabad (Site II) in Pakistan. Three villages were randomly selected from each site for appraisals. The data were collected through discussions with the livestock keepers about the goat production systems, contribution to livelihood, role in livelihood, breeding and selection, key constraints and sale of animals. The data were analysed using Chi square test. It was found that contribution of livestock to livelihood was significantly (P0.05) between sites and between genders with the only exception for poor and all except very poor differences (P<0.001). Modes of spending money and trends were different between sites (P<0.001). The preferred traits were number of kids, feed intake and age at maturity in Teddy goats while milk yield, body size, colour, disease resistance and taste of meat in Beetal goats. Makhi Cheeni strain of Beetal goats is preferred at Site I and Black and White spotted strain of Beetal breed is preferred at Site II. Major constraints identified were problems in production and sales, disease attacks, mortality, scarcity of drinking water, predation, theft, lack of quality breeds, feed and finance. It is suggested that government should extend professional and financial services to minimize these constraints for the uplift of rural poor through goat production.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long- term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.