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This article offers an analysis and mathematical modeling of the influence of
one of the major factors of the World System macrodynamics throughout most
part of its history (since the 'urban revolution') – the factor of interaction of
civilizations with their barbarian periphery. The proposed mathematical model
is intended to describe possible influence of interaction between civilizational
core of the World System and its barbarian periphery on the formation
of the specific curve of the world urbanization dynamics. It simulates completion
of the phase transition, behavior of the system in the attraction basin and
beginning of the phase transition to the attraction basin of the new attractor
and is aimed to identify the role of the factor of interaction between the civilizational
core and barbarian periphery in the formation of attractor effect during
the completion of phase transition, that is for clarification of the reason
why there was observed not only slowdown of growth rates of the main indicators
of the World System development after completion of phase transitions
during its development, but also their falling with the subsequent temporary
stabilization near some equilibrium level. Achievements of modern barbarology,
including the understanding of complexity of the barbarian periphery itself
and its heterogeneity are considered. The basic principle of the proposed dynamic
model is that sizes, power and level of complexity in realization of external
policy functions in nomadic unions (empires) closely correspond to sizes,
power and level of political culture and activity of the core states with which
nomads constantly had to do (this point has been established in works of the
known experts in nomadic studies). Various alternatives are shown in the model,
when depending on power and size of one of the two components of the system 'civilization – barbarian periphery' studied by us, another one also
changes significantly as it has to respond to the challenge properly, or can
make less efforts feeling no threat or resistance. This principle is observed
throughout the long period of the history of the World System. It is shown that
interaction between the civilizational center and barbarian periphery really
can explain some characteristic features of the World System dynamics in the
4th millennium BCE – the 2nd millennium CE. The ways of further development
of the model are outlined.

The article describes Islamism as a multifaceted, multidimensional and constantly changing
phenomenon which manifests itself at different levels. Islamism has many levels and manifestations. It is impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (and even more so Arab) societies without taking into account the
influence of Islam as ideology, cultural environment, modality and way of life at the same time. It would be a
mistake to represent Islamism as a node on the body of Muslim societies. In fact, Islamism largely reflects
the essence of modern Muslim societies, the way of thinking and life of the majority of their population. Islamism
in many ways helps to support social, economic, political and various other subsystems at different
levels of society. It also creates a kind of Islamic model of modernization. In the article, the authors present
their own vision of the reasons and grounds for the extensive and profound integration of Islamism into
Muslim societies, argue why at the present stage it is impossible to eliminate Islamism and why to diminish
the influence of radical Islamism one should search for a compromise with moderate Islamists.

It is impossible to understand modern Islamic (especially Arab) societies without taking into account the influence of Islamism as an ideology, cultural environment, mode of action, and lifestyle. Unfortunately, Islamism in many ways has remained a "phenomenon lurking behind the surface." In this article we will focus on the analysis of some political aspects of modern Islamism, showing how Islamism behaves when in opposition (where it feels more confident) and what happens when Islamists come to power in a legitimate way. We would like to show that Islamism is not something superficial, but the deepest and most comprehensive substance of Islamic societies. Therefore, it is extremely important to distinguish between radical and moderate Islamism, relying on the latter to weaken the former, since moderate Islamism can grow to be a positive and promising part of the political spectrum of Islamic countries. We believe that it is impossible to reduce the danger of radical terrorist Islamism by force alone. We can hope that this will decline if it can be divided by moderate Islamism and make the latter more respectable, open, and involved in normal political life.

International audience ; This chapter offers a thorough analysis of the internal conditions in the MENA countries on the eve of the Arab Spring, as well as causes and consequences of the Arab Revolutions. The chapter also offers an analysis of similar historical World System reconfigurations starting with the 16th century Reformation. The analysis is based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. Thus, we show that the asynchrony of development of various functional subsystems of the World System is a cause of the synchrony of major political changes. In other words, within the globalization process, political transformations tend to lag far behind economic transformations. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. The chapter also suggests an explanation why the current catch-up of the World System political component started in the MENA region.

The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the "North African path" and are likely to encounter serious social problems before they achieve success in making a transition in their fertility rates, and (iii) East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the "Bangladeshi path" and will not achieve substantial fertility declines in the foreseeable future. The Bangladeshi path implies the introduction of compulsory universal secondary education, serious family planning programs, and a rise in the legal age for marriage with parental consent. Such measures should of course be accompanied by the substantial increases in agricultural labor productivity concomitant with a decline in the percentage of the population employed in agriculture.

International audience ; Issues of sociopolitical systems' stability and risks of their destabi-lization in process of political transformations belong to the most important ones as regards the social development perspectives, as has been shown again by the recent events in Ukraine. In this re-spect it appears necessary to note that the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of respective sociopolitical systems. This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable to insure social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of a transition to efficient and stable democracy. The article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and possibilities of establishing democracy in a society on the basis of the historical and contemporary examples as well as the recent events in Egypt. The authors demonstrate that one should take into account a country's degree of sociopolitical and cultural preparedness for democratic institutions. In case of favorable background, revolutions can proceed smoothly ("velvet revolutions") with efficient outcomes. On the contrary, democracy is established with much difficulty, throwbacks, return to totalitarianism, and with outbreaks of violence and military takeovers in the countries with high illiteracy rate and rural population share, with low female status, with widespread religious fundamental ideology, where a substantial part of the population hardly ever hears of democracy while the liberal intellectuals idealize ...

International audience ; This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable to insure social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of a transition to efficient and stable democracy. The article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and possibilities of establishing democracy in a society on the basis of the historical and contemporary examples as well as the recent events in Egypt. The authors demonstrate that one should take into account a country's degree of sociopolitical and cultural preparedness for democratic institutions. In case of favorable background, revolutions can proceed smoothly ('velvet revolutions') with efficient outcomes. On the contrary, democracy is established with much difficulty, throwbacks, return to totalitarian-ism, and with outbreaks of violence and military takeovers in the countries with high illiteracy rate and rural population share, with low female status, with widespread religious fundamental ideology, where a substantial part of the population hardly ever hears of democracy while the liberal intellectuals idealize this form, where the opposing parties are not willing to respect the rules of democratic game when defeated at elections. Sociopolitical destabilization may be produced by rather different causes. However, socio-political transformations may be considered as ones of the most powerful among them. This may look paradoxical, but attempts of transition to democratic forms of government may lead to a very substantial ...

International audience ; Issues of sociopolitical systems' stability and risks of their destabi-lization in process of political transformations belong to the most important ones as regards the social development perspectives, as has been shown again by the recent events in Ukraine. In this re-spect it appears necessary to note that the transition to democracy may pose a serious threat to the stability of respective sociopolitical systems. This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable to insure social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of a transition to efficient and stable democracy. The article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and possibilities of establishing democracy in a society on the basis of the historical and contemporary examples as well as the recent events in Egypt. The authors demonstrate that one should take into account a country's degree of sociopolitical and cultural preparedness for democratic institutions. In case of favorable background, revolutions can proceed smoothly ("velvet revolutions") with efficient outcomes. On the contrary, democracy is established with much difficulty, throwbacks, return to totalitarianism, and with outbreaks of violence and military takeovers in the countries with high illiteracy rate and rural population share, with low female status, with widespread religious fundamental ideology, where a substantial part of the population hardly ever hears of democracy while the liberal intellectuals idealize this form, where the opposing parties are not willing to respect the rules of democratic game when defeated at elections.

The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among numerous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the inflation in the Western countries still remains low. On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from 'the Japanese disease', and this disease can progress or even become chronic. The USA, although to a lesser extent, has the signs of the disease as well. As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Japan. The present paper defines the reasons of the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also offers some forecasts.

International audience ; This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a result of revolutions or of similar large-scale events for the countries unprepared for it. The authors believe that in a number of cases the authoritarian regimes turn out to be more effective in economic and social terms in comparison with emerging democracies especially of the revolutionary type, which are often incapable to insure social order and may have a swing to authoritarianism. Effective authoritarian regimes can also be a suitable form of a transition to efficient and stable democracy. The article investigates various correlations between revolutionary events and possibilities of establishing democracy in a society on the basis of the historical and contemporary examples as well as the recent events in Egypt. The authors demonstrate that one should take into account a country's degree of sociopolitical and cultural preparedness for democratic institutions. In case of favorable background, revolutions can proceed smoothly ('velvet revolutions') with efficient outcomes. On the contrary, democracy is established with much difficulty, throwbacks, return to totalitarian-ism, and with outbreaks of violence and military takeovers in the countries with high illiteracy rate and rural population share, with low female status, with widespread religious fundamental ideology, where a substantial part of the population hardly ever hears of democracy while the liberal intellectuals idealize this form, where the opposing parties are not willing to respect the rules of democratic game when defeated at elections. Sociopolitical destabilization may be produced by rather different causes. However, socio-political transformations may be considered as ones of the most powerful among them. This may look paradoxical, but attempts of transition to democratic forms of government may lead to a very substantial destabilization of a society in transition. The present article analyzes the relationships between revolution, democracy and the level of stability in respective sociopolitical systems.

International audience ; The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years BCE. In this world-system the continental and supracontinental links became rather developed long before the Great Geographic Discoveries and thus, they could quite be denoted as global (albeit in a somehow limited sense). As some researchers are still inclined to underestimate the scale of those links in the pre-Industrial era, it appears necessary to provide additional empirical support for our statement. It also turns necessary to apply a special methodology (which necessitated the use of the world-system approach). We analyze some versions of periodization of globalization history. We also propose our own periodization of globalization history using as its basis the growing scale of intersocietal links as an indicator of the level of globalization development.

International audience ; The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with the processes of the development of the Afroeurasian world-system. In the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system the integration began a few thousand years BCE. In this world-system the continental and supracontinental links became rather developed long before the Great Geographic Discoveries and thus, they could quite be denoted as global (albeit in a somehow limited sense). As some researchers are still inclined to underestimate the scale of those links in the pre-Industrial era, it appears necessary to provide additional empirical support for our statement. It also turns necessary to apply a special methodology (which necessitated the use of the world-system approach). We analyze some versions of periodization of globalization history. We also propose our own periodization of globalization history using as its basis the growing scale of intersocietal links as an indicator of the level of globalization development.