Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of homothetic reformulations of the shift‐share accounting model to the practitioner of regional growth studies. The reformulations of Esteban‐Marquillas (1972) and Arcelus (1984) are examined to determine if they improve the shift‐share framework as a means for accounting for regional economic growth or decline. The purpose of the homothetic models is to separate out change in a region's employment (or value added) associated with its prior or base year specialization in particular industries from change associated with changes in the mix of industries that occurred during the period under study. It is contended while the resulting accounts may help in understanding individual industry's growth rates, they shed little light on total regional growth. Indiana employment data from 1977 and 1986 are used to illustrate the arguments.

ABSTRACT  The goal of this paper is twofold. The first goal is to incorporate spatial structure within shift‐share analysis, to take into account interregional interaction in the decomposition analysis. Secondly, this paper develops a taxonomy of regional growth rate decompositions. A taxonomy of the spatial structure is presented; it comprises twenty alternative decomposition structures, including the original standard shift‐share analysis as well as six alternative structures outlined in the taxonomy for non‐spatial structures.

This article aims to analyze the economy of regencies and cities in Gorontalo Province. The research methodology used is to use Shift Share analysis to analyze components in determining the growth of economies in the regency and cities in Gorontalo Province in 2010-2019 obtained from Regency / City BPS in Gorontalo. The results of the study showed economic growth in Gorontalo City and Gorontalo Regency including growing rapidly, and Pohuwato Regency, Bone Bolango Regency, North Gorontalo Regency, and Boalemo Regency grew slowly, that districts/cities have different regional potential so that they still need support for development policies Furthermore and equalization of the Gorontalo Regional Government.

The analysis of different economic situations and risk factors is necessary in order to properly define forecasting scenarios. In this paper we focus on the shift-share model as a useful tool in the definition of scenarios, based on the different components contributing to the change of a given economic variable (national, sectoral and competitive effects).
Although the most commonly used methodology is based on the "constant shift" and "constant share" hypotheses, additional options can be considered leading to more realistic scenarios. More specifically we propose a dynamic shift-share formulation, allowing time changes in both the sectoral structure and the level of the considered variable.
Once this new option has been developed, this approach is applied to define scenarios and forecast the regional employment in Asturias using the information provided by the Spanish Economically Active Population Survey (Encuesta de Población Activa, EPA).

Este trabajo examina el crecimiento económico departamental en Co-lombia durante el periodo 1975-2000 y los subperiodos 1975-1990 y 1990-2000, haciendo énfasis en el impacto que la estructura productiva tiene sobre los diferentes desempeños observados. Al efecto se utilizan especificaciones de la metodología Shift-Share. Además, se emplea una desagregación de la producción a 14 sectores y dos especificaciones regionales, en atención a las características sui generis de los Nuevos Departamentos y La Guajira, así como al carácter integrado de Bogotá y Cundinamarca. Una de las conclusiones principales es que las especializa-ciones agropecuaria e industrial no son dinámicas, pero sus procesos de especialización sí lo son. Por otra parte, las especializaciones en minería y en ciertos tipos de servicios, especialmente de gobierno, son claramente ganadoras en términos de su aportación al crecimiento, aunque la eviden-cia en favor de efectos endógenos locales es menos clara.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo obter evidências empíricas sobre a variação da produtividade do trabalho em cinco grandes setores da economia pernambucana durante os anos de 2010-2018, decompondo-a setorialmente com a técnica shift-share. O estudo traz trabalhos que utilizaram o método para analisar o Brasil após a abertura comercial nos anos 90 e outros que abordam outras regiões. A decomposição mostra que, mesmo com aumento da produtividade ao longo do período, as mudanças estruturais no emprego analisadas ano a ano, ocorreram mais no sentido de reduzir a produtividade do trabalho com deslocamentos da mão de obra de setores menos produtivos e com maior crescimento da produtividade para setores mais produtivos e com menor crescimento da produtividade.

ABSTRACT
The traditional shift‐share model measures the combined effects of output growth and productivity change on employment. A region with above average employment growth either has a favorable industry mix or enjoys a competitive advantage over other regions. To separate the effects of output and productivity, the shift‐share model is extended to decompose the effects of changes in output and productivity on employment. This paper modifies the Rigby‐Anderson extension by separating the contribution of labor and capital to productivity growth in the analysis of regional economic performance, and investigates twenty (two‐digit SIC) manufacturing sectors in twelve states (six snowbelt, six sunbelt states) to assess whether observed changes in employment were due to changes in output or to productivity.

Foreign aid payments have been a key policy response by Global North countries to reduce increased migration flows from the Global South. In this article, we contribute to the literature on the relationship between aid and international migration flows and estimate the contemporaneous effect of bilateral aid payments on bilateral, international migration flows. The fundamental problem in analyzing this relationship is endogeneity, or reverse causality. To address this issue and achieve causal inference, we use a shift-share, or Bartik, instrument. Examining migration flows between 198 origin countries and 16 OECD destination countries over 36 years (1980−2015), we find a positive relationship between aid and migration. A ten-percent increase in aid payments will increase migration by roughly 2 percent. We further document non-linearity in the relationship between aid and migration and find an inverted U-shaped relationship between aid and migration flows. The findings presented here have implications for the design of bilateral and multilateral aid policies and for achieving various United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by stressing the importance of a better coordination between aid and immigration policies.