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DISCUSSION OF THE NATURE OF CHANGES IN THE CLASS/PARTY ASSOCIATION HAVE FOCUSED ON THE THESIS OF "TRENDLESS FLUCTUATION" AND GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE CLASS BASIS OF BRITISH POLITICS. THIS PAPER ADVANCES THIS DEBATE BY DEMONSTRATING THAT LOG-LINEAR MODELING CAN BE USED TO TEST FOR MORE COMPLEX PATTERNS OF CHANGE OVER EIGHT ELECTIONS BOTH THE TRENDLESS FLUCTUATION AND THE GRADUAL CHANGE THESIS ARE SHOWN NOT TO FIT THE DATA PARTICULARLY WELL. FAR BETTER FITS ARE OBTAINED BY MODELING THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL RATHER THAN SOCIOLOGICAL INFLUENCES. THUS INCUMBENCY IS SHOWN TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE CLASS BASIS OF SUPPORT FOR THE PARTIES. LABOR PARTY INCUMBENCY IS SHOWN TO HAVE AN ESPECIALLY LARGE EFFECT IN REDUCING THE WORKING CLASS BASIS OF SUPPORT FOR THE PARTY. THE PAPER BOTH ELABORATES UPON THE METHODOLOGICAL ADVANTAGES OF LOG-LINEAR MODELING AND ARGUES FOR NEW APPROACHES TO UNDERSTANDING THE CLASS/PARTY RELATIONSHIP.

This paper considers certain aspects of social change and its relation to the necessity for variety in a dy namic social system. Certain consequences for social control in the future can now be predicted by references to techno logical developments. It seems unlikely that the rate of tech nological change will be diminished, and it is essential that social changes be made which can accommodate the techno logical innovations. The problems which can now be fore seen form a basis for considering the priorities which should be accorded to different forms of social research. It may be that the pressing demand that social research should be de voted to the current social problems may have many undesir able consequences. Perhaps social science today is in an unsatisfactory state because ten years ago it was too much concerned with problems of ten years ago! Most of the simple models which were thought to suffice in social research are now clearly unsatisfactory. A revolution in social science method ology is necessary.

Certain aspects of soc change & its relation to the necessity for variety in a dynamic soc system are considered. Certain consequences for soc control in the future can now be predicted by references to technological developments. It seems unlikely that the rate of technological change will be diminished, & it is essential that soc changes be made which can accomodate the technological innovations. The problems which can now be foreseen form a basis for considering the priorities which should be accorded to diff forms of soc res. It may be that the pressing demand that soc res should be devoted to the current soc problems may have many undesirable consequences. Perhaps soc sci today is in an unsatisfactory state because 10 yrs ago it was too much concerned with problems of 10 yrs ago. Mast of the simple models which were thought to suffice in soc res are now clearly unsatisfactory. A revolution in soc sci methodology is necessary. HA.

Changes in the rates of childlessness over time are explored using European, Australian, American, and Japanese data from censuses, national registers, and large-scale surveys. The trends are remarkably similar across the countries for which data are available: a peak in childlessness rates for the 1880-1910 birth cohorts, a more or less continuous drop across the 1910-1945 birth cohorts, and a steady rise across the cohorts born after the Second World War. Thus, contemporary older adults (particularly the "young old") belong to generations for which the proportions childless are near the minimum ever recorded. The article examines the factors associated with the changes in rates of childlessness, and more particularly trends in marriage (e.g., median age at marriage and the proportions marrying), trends in family formation (e.g., median age at the first birth and average family size), and the role of voluntary and involuntary factors.

This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) up to 2030 against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modelling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next 2 decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries' rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.