Suchergebnisse

'Stocks for the Long Run' by Jeremy J. Siegel is reviewed.

In a number of evolutionary models the presence of mutations, or random components of choice, serve to refine predictions of long-run behavior. We analyze the effects of mutation rates that vary because of the presence of imitation. A full characterization of long-run outcomes is provided for familiar coordination and congestion games, and also a number of other games not previously considered within the evolutionary framework. Our results are often quite distinct from those in the literature. We apply these tools to a series of economic applications, including market games, where imitation can explain excess volatility of prices, and location games, where it leads to greater uniformity in choices.

Annual estimates of the GDP of Victoria for the period 1861–1976/77 are here presented and used as a basis for an analysis of Victoria's long–run economic growth. Victoria is represented as having fallen behind the per capita GDP of Australia as a whole in the 1870s but to have out–paced the national growth rate from the early twentieth century until the late 1950s. The changing importance of natural resources and of the scope for manufacturing development are seen as the basis for an explanation of the Victorian divergence. The article carries the implication of a need for regional disaggregation in the analysis of Australian economic growth.

AbstractFrom any state of economic and environmental assets, the maximin value defines the highest level of utility that can be sustained forever. Along any development path, the maximin value evolves over time according to investment decisions. If the current level of utility is lower than this value, there is room for growth of both the utility level and the maximin value. For any resource allocation mechanism (ram) and economic dynamics, growth is limited by the long-run level of the maximin value, which is an endogenous dynamic sustainability constraint. If utility reaches this limit, sustainability imposes growth to stop, and the adoption of maximin decisions instead of the currentram. We illustrate this pattern in two canonical models, the simple fishery and a two-sector economy with a nonrenewable resource. We discuss what our results imply for the assessment of sustainability in the short and the long run in non-optimal economies.

We extend the analysis of Christoffersen and Diebold (1998) on long-run forecasting in cointegrated systems to multicointegrated systems. For the forecast evaluation we consider several loss functions, each of which has a particular interpretation in the context of stock-flow models where multicointegration typically occurs. A loss function based on a standard mean square forecast error (MSFE) criterion focuses on the forecast errors of the flow variables alone. Likewise, a loss function based on the triangular representation of cointegrated systems (suggested by Christoffersen and Diebold) considers forecast errors associated with changes in both stock (modelled through the cointegrating restrictions) and flow variables. We suggest a new loss function which is based on the triangular representation of multicointegrated systems which further penalizes deviations from the long-run relationship between the levels of stock and flow variables as well as changes in the flow variables. Among other things, we show that if one is concerned with all possible long-run relations between stock and flow variables, this new loss function entails high and increasing forecasting gains compared to both the standard MSFE criterion and Christoffersen and Diebold's criterion. The paper demonstrates the importance of carefully selecting loss functions in forecast evaluation of models involving stock and flow variables.

This book enlarges our understanding of economic development by bringing together items or aspects of historical experience relevant to the present-day problems of developing countries; by looking at the problems over a longer period than is usual in development economics, so that the influence of underlying forces may be made evident; and by comparing the experiences of different countries in similar situations.A variety of countries are dealt with and most of the significant problems in development economics are covered in one context or another. The authors of this symposium, each an intern