Suchergebnisse

Asymmetric persistence of accounting income is often tested in a regression of changes in earnings on lagged changes in earnings, including an interaction term for negative changes (see Basu [1997] or Ball et al. [2009] for a recent overview). In this note we propose an alternative, but closely related measure of conservatism - regressing the changes in earnings on the lagged levels, similar to the threshold-unit root test specification of Enders and Granger [1998]. We argue that this approach has three distinct advantages compared to the conventional setup: (i) a smooth, non-oscillating impulse response pattern to an unexpected shock in earnings (ii) a return to the old equilibrium of earnings in the long run and (iii) it can be extended to higher order autoregressive processes. We illustrate the differences between the two approaches, when applied to a common data set of firms, as well as a data set from a Monte Carlo simulation. -- timely loss recognition ; asymmetric persistence ; conservatism

Asymmetric persistence of accounting income is often tested in a regression of changes in earnings on lagged changes in earnings, including an interaction term for negative changes (see Basu [1997] or Ball et al. [2009] for a recent overview). In this note we propose an alternative, but closely related measure of conservatism - regressing the changes in earnings on the lagged levels, similar to the threshold-unit root test specification of Enders and Granger [1998]. We argue that this approach has three distinct advantages compared to the conventional setup: (i) a smooth, non-oscillating impulse response pattern to an unexpected shock in earnings (ii) a return to the old equilibrium of earnings in the long run and (iii) it can be extended to higher order autoregressive processes. We illustrate the differences between the two approaches, when applied to a common data set of firms, as well as a data set from a Monte Carlo simulation.

Building on the Behavioral Process Model of Familism, the current study examined the longitudinal association between public and private ethnic regard and familial support, and familism values in a sample of 141 Latinx 7th–10th graders living in a semi-rural, emerging immigrant community. Analyses revealed that changes in public and private regard were positively related to changes in familism ( p<.001) over time, but there were no cross-lagged associations. Additionally, changes in familism were positively and significantly correlated with changes in family support ( p<.001), and more family support at T1 was related to growth in familism at T2 ( p<.001). These findings suggest that familial processes set the stage for continued growth in familism values across adolescence. These results highlight the importance of the family in fostering the growth of familism values over time for youth in emerging immigrant communities.

A conception of the housing market as a lagged, dynamic matching process is presented as an alternative to the conventional microeconomic formulation. Various components of changes in occupancy patterns are identified, in a general multidimensional accounting framework, as a means for the structuring of observations of household and dwelling-unit characteristics of urban populations. Parameters for several stochastic models of housing-market phenomena are derived from the account-based representation. Finally, potential planning applications of these accounting frameworks are explored together with conditions for their adoption.

ABSTRACTThe paper estimates both long‐run reserves and long‐run money demand equations using the multivariate cointegration approach. An economic model is constructed, based on the monetary approach to balance of payments in which the monetary authorities can control money supply through changes in bank credit. The vector auto‐regressive methodology is used to derive latent equilibrium relationships, and the short‐run error correction equations are estimated for both nominal money stock and reserves. A response function for the short‐run changes in bank credit is developed. Given the institutional system and slow adjustments, a response function of changes in bank credit to lagged changes in reserves performs well for the period 1960–88.

It should first be stated that there are many bright students in the Korean educational system and Koreahas produced great waves in the information technology fields and the Korean economy has leaped inbounds from the days of poverty and despair, following the Korean War, to the present days whenKorea has proven itself to be a world class country with a world class economy. Nevertheless, theKorean system of education has seemingly lagged behind the advances the Korean informationtechnology and semiconductor industries have enjoyed.

THIS RESEARCH TESTS A MODEL WHICH PREDICTS THAT CHANGES IN STUDENT'S LEVELS OF POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE WOULD VARY IN A LAG I RELATIONSHIP WITH NEWS MEDIA USE. THE HYPOTHESIS IS THAT NEWS MEDIA USE AT ONE POINT IN TIME IS RELATED TO SUBSEQUENT LEVELS OF POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE IS TESTED USING CROSSLAGGED PARTIAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS. LIMITED SUPPORT IS PROVIDED FOR THE HYPOTHESIZED LAGGED INFLUENCE OF USAGE.

This paper investigates how local jurisdictions in a federal system influence each other in the adoption of policy innovations. We look at school districts in Michigan and their participation in a public school choice program launched in 1996. Districts' participation decisions are modelled as simultaneous discrete choice decisions using a spatial latent variable model. Strong effects are found saying that lagged adoptions of neighbors positively affect the current probability of participation. This finding is robust to various changes in specification. The results suggest that in federal systems the diffusion of policy innovations is stimulated by horizontal interactions between jurisdictions.

This paper investigates how local jurisdictions in a federal system influence each other in the adoption of policy innovations. We look at school districts in Michigan and their participation in a public school choice program launched in 1996. Districts' participation decisions are modelled as simultaneous discrete choice decisions using a spatial latent variable model. Strong effects are found saying that lagged adoptions of neighbors positively affect the current probability of participation. This finding is robust to various changes in specification. The results suggest that in federal systems the diffusion of policy innovations is stimulated by horizontal interactions between jurisdictions.

This paper analyzes the theoretical and empirical links between key economic variables such as foreign direct investment (FDI) and private investment spending in Latin America during the 1981-2000 period. The pooled model tests the complementarity hypothesis which suggests that increases in FDI raise the marginal productivity of private capital via the transfer of more advanced technology and managerial knowhow, thereby inducing higher rates of private investment spending. The paper also addresses the issue of whether changes in the real exchange rate (expenditure-switching policies) have a deflationary effect on the economies of Latin America. The findings suggest that (lagged) FDI, public investment spending, and real credit to the private sector have a positive and significant effect on private capital formation, while lagged changes in the real exchange rate, particularly its volatility, have a negative effect. Finally, the application of panel unit root tests on the stacked residuals of the pooled regressions suggest that the included variables have a stable, non-spurious (cointegrated) relationship.

Organizational changes are costly ventures that too often fail to deliver the expected outcomes. Psychological empowerment and affective commitment to change are proposed as especially important in turbulent contexts characterized by multiple and ongoing changes requiring employees' continuing contributions. In such a context, employees' beliefs that the changes are necessary, legitimate and will be supported, are presumed to increase psychological empowerment and affective commitment to change. In a three-wave longitudinal panel study of 819 employees, we examined autoregressive and cross-lagged relations among latent constructs reflecting change-related beliefs (necessity, legitimacy, support) and psychological reactions (psychological empowerment, affective commitment to change). Our findings suggest that psychological empowerment and affective commitment to change represent largely orthogonal reactions, that psychological empowerment is influenced more by beliefs regarding support, whereas affective commitment to change is shaped more by beliefs concerning necessity and legitimacy.

Purpose
Crisis events are windows of opportunity during which a country's leaders may implement economic policy adjustments which change that country's level of economic freedom and affect the local capital market. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between annual changes in an economic freedom index, six types of crises and equity market returns.


Design/methodology/approach
The author uses fixed-effects regressions on annual panel data for 69 countries during the period 2000-2010.


Findings
Banking, domestic debt and inflation crises decrease economic freedom, and an external debt crisis weakly relates to increases in economic freedom. Only banking crises relate to a change in economic freedom in the following year, suggesting that crisis-driven changes in economic freedom happen quickly. Gains in economic freedom are more likely to occur during periods of positive local and global equity returns. Preceding and contemporaneous to increases in economic freedom, a country's equity market outperforms a global equity index, offering observers a leading indicator for economic policy change.


Originality/value
The author finds that crises coincide with decreases in economic freedom, while gains in economic freedom happen during periods of positive capital market sentiment. The absence of a relationship between one-year lagged crisis events and changes in economic freedom suggests prior research relating gains in economic freedom to a crisis occurring 5 or 10 years earlier is a relationship which is more complex, non-linear and specific to the selected data period or spurious. Furthermore, relative equity market returns are related to changes in economic freedom, suggesting that equity markets identify which countries have increased economic freedom, long before popular economic freedom indexes are published.

The research undertakes a longitudinal analysis of a model of the effects of stress in marital interaction on change in depressive symptoms as mediated by unfavorable reflected appraisals, low competency, self-efficacy, and self-esteem. The participants were 98 randomly selected married couples interviewed at two separate points in time. The data supported the proposed model. Stressors in marital interaction are associated with unfavorable reflected appraisals that have a direct effect on self-efficacy and an indirect effect on self-esteem. These two self-assessments have a direct effect on depressive symptoms after controlling for lagged level of depressive symptoms. A key variable is self-efficacy, which mediates the effect of reflected appraisals on self-esteem and has a direct effect on change in depressive symptoms.

AbstractWe hypothesize that changes in the technological and regulatory environment result in a more rapid response to marketwide information by small firms. We find that the correlations between small‐firm returns and lagged large‐firm returns decline over time, which suggests an increase in the efficiency of capital markets. Similar lead‐lag patterns are found in the returns of portfolios sorted by dollar trading volume. The price response of low‐volume stocks improves over time in much the same way as that of small‐capitalization stocks.