Suchergebnisse

Recently, the South Asian Association for Regional
Co-operation (SAARC) completed two decades of its existence. The heads
of states or governments of its member countries, viz. Bangladesh,
Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, once again
would meet in Dhaka and reaffirm their faith in the organisation and its
charter. Considering the political reality within the individual SAARC
nations, and especially the relationship between the two biggest members
of the association, one could feel satisfied that the association has
survived so far. But its movement in terms of achieving the objectives
for which it was formed has been slow and it is criticised as a house of
cards or a house built on sand, which can fall apart any time. There is
a big stress in the interrelationship between neighbours.

Oman's regional trade flow, especially with the Indian Ocean Rim countries, is examined within a gravity model framework. The analysis is based on the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure. The findings show that Oman's exports are strongly determined by the Indian Ocean Rim countries' populations, gross domestic product, infrastructure, Oman's trade policy and a common border and language. Distance is found to induce significant friction for Oman's imports. We conclude that the Indian Ocean Rim countries are sources of active markets and provide opportunities for greater trade integration. In light of the dramatic decline in world oil prices in recent years, Oman also needs to reduce its reliance on oil earnings and intervene more aggressively in its domestic economy by diversifying its non-oil sector and concentrate more on non-oil led exports.

The article assesses South Africa's maritime power in the Indian Ocean. It is argued that South Africa needs a credible navy to exercise power and influence in support of foreign policy imperatives in the Indian Ocean. The maritime potential of other states which may have an impact on South Africa's interests is examined, including Australia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan and Kenya and, from outside the region, the United States, the United Kingdom and France. The contrast between the growth and modernisation of other navies and the contraction and ageing of the South African Navy is highlighted. It is concluded that these developments leave South Africa strategically vulnerable. (SAJIA/DÜI)