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The hypothesis that democratization triggers political violence has been proposed repeatedly in the quantitative literature, but it remains controversial with respect to both interstate and civil wars. Current empirical research continues to be afflicted by methodological and data problems related to the measurement of democracy and the task of detecting changes in such scores. In order to gain further clarity into the link between democratization and civil war, the current study introduces a new period-finding algorithm that is able to detect periods of democratization and autocratization. This allows for a more flexible way of finding directional changes in governance indicators than is possible with the rigid lag structures commonly employed in previous studies. When regressed on various measures of civil-war onset, the indicator for the initiation of a period of democratization has a strong and robust effect on conflict even in the presence of static measures of regime type. The same applies to autocratization, but its impact is much more sudden than that of democratization. Moreover, we find that the democratization effect is limited to governmental rather than territorial conflicts. Further research will be needed to confirm these results in terms of the relevant causal mechanisms, especially in ethno-nationalist civil wars.

"The hypothesis that democratization triggers political violence has been proposed repeatedly in the quantitative literature, but it remains controversial with respect to both interstate and civil wars. Current empirical research continues to be afflicted by methodological and data problems related to the measurement of democracy and the task of detecting changes in such scores. In order to gain further clarity into the link between democratization and civil war, the current study introduces a new period-finding algorithm that is able to detect periods of democratization and autocratization. This allows for a more flexible way of finding directional changes in governance indicators than is possible with the rigid lag structures commonly employed in previous studies. When regressed on various measures of civil-war onset, the indicator for the initiation of a period of democratization has a strong and robust effect on conflict even in the presence of static measures of regime type. The same applies to autocratization, but its impact is much more sudden than that of democratization. Moreover, we find that the democratization effect is limited to governmental rather than territorial conflicts. Further research will be needed to confirm these results in terms of the relevant causal mechanisms, especially in ethno-nationalist civil wars." (author's abstract)

In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model works well for investment grade credit default swaps, but only if we use swap or repo rates as proxy for default-free interest rates. This indicates that the government curve is no longer seen as the reference default-free curve. We also show that the model is insensitive to the value of the assumed recovery rate

We focus on the role that the transmission of information between a multilateral (the IMF) and a country has for the optimal design of conditional reforms. Our model predicts that when agency problems are especially severe, and/or IMF information is valuable, a centralized control is indeed optimal. To the contrary, when local knowledge is more important than the agency bias we expect delegation to dominate. Controlling for economic and political factors, our empirical tests show that the number of IMF conditions is lower in countries with a greater social complexity, while it increases with the bias of the countries' authorities, openness, and transparency, consistently with the theory.

In an environment of increasing government expenditures financed largely viii through taxes, including a relatively visible and large residential property tax, the issue of whether property taxes are capitalized into market values is increasingly important. Property tax capitalization is the reflection of property taxes in the value of real property. The capitalization of property tax does not necessarily pose a problem; rather, problems arise when homes identical to each other have different taxes and these differentials are then capitalized into market values. These capitalized tax differentials result in large capital gains and losses to owners of real estate. This study (1) reviews existing economic theory and empirical evidence on the capitalization of property taxes, (2) develops a model of property valuation inclusive of tax effects, and (3) estimates the parameters of this model using a comprehensive data set of over 334 home sales in the Logan, Utah area. The empirical results include an estimate of the tax capitalization effect. Two closely related issues are also addressed in the study. They include: (I) changes in real estate prices, including a suggested method for measuring such change and (2) a study of property tax equity, including two specific measures of tax fairness. The conclusions are (I) tax differentials are capitalized; (2) real estate prices in the study area increased approximately 10 percent per year from 1989 to 1992; and (3) there is significant variation in assessment ratios.

Innovation in government activities is more directed in public services, although innovation can emphasize processes, development, planning, policies, and other activities. This research discusses governance innovation from empirical evidence that applied innovation cannot provide maximum results. The cause, government innovation that is not realized, appears only as a ceremonial act in government activities. Qualitative method analysis describes experiences, perceptions, responses through facts found in the informant's experience. This study was conducted in the Population and Civil Registration Record Office of Southeast Aceh Regency, starting from September to November 2020. In-depth interviews conducted with informants of this research consisted of government or executive, legislative, related institution, and citizen. Our field findings use the technique of hermeneutics to interpret various views that we can learn to look at the subject from every angle of knowledge (public administration, management, politics, innovation, and technology). That innovation should be supported by policies that result from decision-making, manager expertise, developed through long-term evaluation, and innovation as the basis for the quality of government public services. Governance innovation focuses on innovative action through various government instruments that lead to the simplification of action towards quality public services. For this reason, government, innovation, and how to manage are modes that continue to exist in administrative reform in government institutions with governance innovation that influence each other.

This study examines the survival of nonprofit organizations after the discovery of a fraud. Literature on nonprofit fraud claims that fraud has a destructive impact on nonprofit organizations. This study is the first to provide empirical evidence of the impact of fraud on a nonprofit organization's survival, and to analyze the significance of underlying organizational and fraud factors. An analysis of 115 nonprofit organizations experiencing a fraud shows that over one fourth of these organizations did not survive at least 3 years beyond the publication of the fraud, a rate considerably higher than the typical nonprofit failure rate. This article investigates the characteristics of surviving organizations and finds that older and larger organizations are more likely to survive, indicating the liabilities of newness and smallness hold in fraud survival situations. In cases where an executive‐level perpetrator committed the fraud, or where the organization victimized the public, the organization was less likely to survive. These findings suggest nonprofit organizations, particularly those that are new or small, could benefit by implementing governance policies and procedures that are consistent with those employed by more established organizations.