The European Union (EU) approved in 2009 an ambitious "Climate and Energy Package" with measures for the promotion of low-carbon technologies to fight human-induced climate change. This Package provided unprecedented EU-level support for carbon capture and storage (CCS), a new technology first mentioned in the EU's political agenda in 2005. This dissertation answers the question: "what or who drove the sudden decision to support CCS in the EU?"; thereby covering important gaps in the literature. This literature largely explains away the EU's choice for CCS as a logical measure to step up climate change mitigation. However, CCS is just one of many potential "innovative technologies". Indeed, the vision of a European Supergrid acquired prominence as soon as CCS projects began floundering in 2010. A fraction of this EU literature does analyse the legal intricacies of support for CCS, but does not delve into the politics behind the laws. The thesis argues that a loose coalition led by traditional electrical utilities successfully pushed for the support of CCS at the EU level, subtly emphasizing its use in new coal-fired power plants as an innovative way to enhance European security of supply. The thesis contends that this coalition downplayed the uncertainty surrounding CCS deployment, disregarded the EU's strengths in industrial CCS, and its increasingly coal-importing, low-growth economy. More coal power hardly addresses the EU's supply worries and adds pressure on climate targets; yet it absorbed all EU funding made available to CCS – with few results. By contrast, steelmaking provided a trial ground for CCS with no current low-carbon alternatives, a fact that was widely ignored. A constructivist understanding of technological change underpins this thesis. This means that debates about technologies are assumed to socially "construct" their future development (or at least support for it) along "storylines" describing such development. The dissertation also drew on insights about the pitfalls of economic modelling as well as the relevance of the concept of "hype" in decision-making about future technologies. Documental analysis and interviews were used to reveal the social construction of low-carbon technologies in the EU, and the role of modelling therein. These methods also helped analyse the extent of hype. In its exposition, the dissertation traces chronologically the process of EU decision-making on CCS. Process-tracing highlights the influence of a dominant "storyline", used by the aforementioned coalition, to extol the potential of CCS for coal-fired power plants in the EU. This EU storyline was based on a largely unrelated (and partly unfounded) global storyline, which originated in the early influence on CCS of the coal-rich USA and in a global community awestruck by the coal-propelled rise of China in the 2000s. The global storyline was relayed and relied on by authoritative organisations (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the International Energy Agency). Eventually, the utility-led coalition adopted it in the EU – in order to safeguard not only the climate, but also its coal assets and interests. Two further points on modelling and hype can be derived from the process-tracing exercise. Firstly, a classic hype dynamic can be observed in the fact that, after a decade of being largely ignored and with little more data available, CCS for clean coal suddenly appeared essential worldwide. Secondly, this research reveals that the dominance of this CCS storyline sidelined other existing low-carbon options, such as the Supergrid. Notably, the economic modelling that backed CCS in the EU was fundamentally biased, assuming that only CCS would be capable of breakthroughs and that conditions not conducive to CCS deployment were "extremes". Literature on CCS generally has failed to consider in depth the potentially very different role of CCS in each world region or its relation to other technologies. Drawing lessons from the findings above, this dissertation suggests a strategic approach to CCS promotion in the EU that takes into account (1) the possibility of breakthroughs in non-CCS low-carbon technologies and (2) the advantages of promoting CCS in industrial sectors with no other mitigation options.
Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit der makroökonomischen Rolle von Geld und Kredit zur Erklärung des Konjunkturzyklus. Die empirische Beobachtung das monetäre Größen sowie Finanzmarktvariablen hochgradig mit dem Konjunkturverlauf korreliert sind, bildet den Ausgangspunkt dieser Dissertation. Die folgenden Kapitel beschäftigen sich mit unterschiedlichen und dennoch zusammenhängen Problemstellungen. Der Themenbereich reicht von aktuellen Diskussionen um die Rolle von Kreditrestriktionen für Privatinvestitionen, über das Geldnachfrageverhalten von Haushalten unter Unsicherheit bis zu der Funktion der Geldpolitik für die wirtschaftliche Stabilität. Im zweiten Kapitel wird der Zusammenhang zwischen unvollkommenen Kapitalmärkten und dem Aufkommen von Kreditrestriktionen für private nicht-finanzielle Unternehmen untersucht. Die zentrale Hypothese lautet, dass der Zugang einer Firma zu externen Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten auf dem Kreditmarkt erheblich von der finanziellen Position dieser Firma abhängt. Besondere Beachtung wird dabei kleinen und mittelständischen Unternehmen geschenkt, da in der Literatur die Ansicht besteht, dass Kreditrestriktionen insbesondere diesen Typus von Unternehmen betreffen (Berger and Udell, 1998). Der empirische Teil der Arbeit erweitert den von Fazzari et al. (1988) vorgeschlagenen Ansatz, Investitionsfunktionen für separate Firmengruppen zu schätzen. Anstatt die Unternehmen innerhalb eines Panels in unrestringierte bzw. restringierte Firmen mit Hilfe von ad hoc Kriterien zu unterteilen, kann mit Hilfe des nicht-linearen Ansatzes von Hansen (1999) die Unterscheidung zwischen Gruppen (sog. Regimen) datengetrieben und endogen vorgenommen werden. Die Ergebnisse liefern deutliche Hinweise darauf, dass in Deutschland finanziell fragile im Vergleich zu finanziell solideren Unternehmen in ihrer Investitionstätigkeit stärker von den eigenen Finanzierungsressourcen abhängen, und somit stärker auf dem Kreditmarkt restringiert werden. Im Gegensatz zu üblichen Annahmen spielt die Firmengröße keine Maßgabe für die Wahrscheinlichkeit auf dem Kreditmarkt restringiert zu werden. Die einzige Ausnahme bilden sog. Mikrounternehmen (mit weniger als 25 Mitarbeitern), die tatsächlich, nach Kontrolle von firmenspezifischen Eigenschaften, häufiger restringiert sind. Für die Wirtschaftspolitik impliziert dies, dass die Ankurbelung höherer Privatinvestitionen mittels expansiver Nachfragepolitik zwar förderlich aber nicht ausreichend ist. Dies ergibt sich daraus, dass die Höhe der Unternehmensverschuldung die Investitionstätigkeit einschränkt, so dass weitere Instrumente zur Begrenzung und Reduktion von exzessiver Unternehmensverschuldung eingeführt werden sollten. Im letzten Kapitel wird ein makroökonometrisches Modell entwickelt, welches die wichtigsten Charakteristika der Finanziellen Instabilitätshypothese von Hyman Minsky (2008) berücksichtigt. Dieser Ansatz stellt den ersten Versuch in der Literatur dar, ein Modell dieser Größe innerhalb eines Systems zu schätzen. Eine zentrale Behauptung der Hypothese Minskys ist, dass die Anpassung des kurzfristigen Zinssatzes durch die Zentralbank negative Rückwirkungen auf die finanzielle Fragilität von verschuldeten Unternehmen hat. Um dies zu untersuchen, wird ein Vektorautoregressives Fehlerkorrekturmodell entwickelt, in dem die theoretisch fundierten Restriktionen auf den Kointegrationsraum auferlegt und auf ihre Validität getestet werden. Diese Modellierungsstrategie basiert auf der Arbeit von Garratt et al. (2012). Die empirischen Ergebnisse stützen Minskys Hypothese, und zeigen, dass der Zinsanstieg einer Zentralbank, welche ein bestimmtes Inflationsziel verfolgt, die internen Finanzierungsmittel von Unternehmen reduziert und gleichzeitig die realen Finanzierungskosten dieser Unternehmen steigert. Makroprudentielle Politikinstrumente, die u.a. antizyklische Mindestreserveanforderungen an Banken und Kredit-zu-Einkommensbeschränkungen umfassen, bilden effektive Ansätze um exzessives Kreditwachstum zu begrenzen. Wie kürzlich von Janet Yellen (2014) argumentiert, könnte solch ein regulatorischer Rahmen dazu beitragen, dass die Geldpolitik sich auf ihr deklariertes Mandat der Preisstabilität und Vollbeschäftigung beschränken kann. ; This thesis evaluates the macroeconomic role of money and finance for the business cycle. The starting point marks the empirical observation that monetary as well as financial conditions are highly correlated with the business cycle. The chapters discuss different but linked topics on current issues related to credit constraints and investment, households' money demand behavior under uncertainty as well as the role and mandate of monetary policy for economic stability. The second chapter analyzes the role of imperfect capital markets for investment constraints. The core contention is that a firm's financial position contributes to its access to external finance on credit markets. Special emphasizes is put on small and medium-sized firms as these are assumed to face more restrictive access to external sources of funds (Berger and Udell, 1998). The empirical part extends the approach suggested by Fazzari et al. (1988) by applying the non-linear panel threshold model as proposed by Hansen (1999) to data comprising information on private non-financial firms in Germany. This modeling framework allows one to distinguish between financially constrained and unconstrained firms in a data-driven rather than ad hoc manner. The results reveal strong evidence that financially fragile firms rely more heavily on retained earnings. In contrast to frequent assumptions, firm size does not seem to be a relevant grouping variable in general, with the only exception being micro firms for which the probability to fall into a financially constrained regime is higher compared to other companies. The policy consequences are that stimulating aggregate demand may foster firm-level investments, but is most likely not sufficient. Corporate indebtedness impedes investment, and thus economic policy must find instruments to deal with excessive debt and non-performing loans. The third chapter contributes to the literature on the role of economic risk on money demand. The derived microfounded partial model of money demand explicitly takes into account both substitution as well as income effects. Additionally, the role of capital market risk as well as inflation risk is explicitly stated, even after linearization around the steady state. The model is estimated by means of the error-correction framework, and potential time-varying dynamics are analyzed using rolling-window dynamic multiplier analysis. The model's complete solution of the optimization problem leads to ambiguous effects w.r.t. to the impact of capital as well as inflation risk, thus contradicting standard results. According to the empirical results, U.S. households indeed respond in a risk-averse manner to positive changes in inflation and capital market risk by increasing their demand for safe money holdings. However, the responsiveness of households to inflation risk has decreased since 2009 in the U.S. while the effect of capital market risk on money demand has remained stable since the beginning of 2000. Interestingly, certain structural breaks in the money demand behavior of households just coincide with recent peaks in economic uncertainty indicating another link between uncertainty and actors' behavior. The last chapter develops a macroeconometric model embodying the key attributes of the Minskyan Financial Instability Hypothesis (Minsky, 2008). This is the first attempt to estimate a sophisticated macroeconometric model of this type. A core contention of the Financial Instability Hypothesis is that manipulation of the short-term interest rate by the central bank may contribute to the financial fragility of leveraged firms. To analyze this hypothesis, a vector error correction model is developed where the restrictions on the cointegrating space embody the central aspects of the Minskyan mechanism, following the modeling strategy as proposed by Garratt et al. (2012). The results support Minsky's contention, showing that a rate hike by an inflation targeting central bank will reduce firms' internal funds while raising the debt burden. It is argued that macro-prudential policies including countercyclical reserve requirements and caps on the loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratios may be used to check excess credit growth in a precisely targeted manner. As noted by Janet Yellen (2014) in a recent speech, such a framework would allow monetary policy to focus on its declared mandate of price level stability and full employment.
The scope of climate change research has grown immensely over the last decade. Beyond the extensive efforts to map and understand how the various components of the climate system interact and respond to human forcing, academics from a range of fields are today deeply involved in the social and political struggle to develop effective and legitimate climate change policies. While initially focused on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, we have in recent years seen a growing academic interestin local, national, regional and trans-national climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.In a time when decision makers have linked such efforts to other policy areas such as energy security, finance, land use, and social development, new academic fields have also become involved in the study of climate change. Hence, climate change research is increasingly conducted at the interface between the natural and social sciences, engineering and the humanities. This development spurs self-reflection in the research community. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with the mandate to assess the latest research for decision-makers, is currently working and deliberating on how to design the nextround of assessment in the light of a widen agenda of climate change policy. It is at this dynamic interface that we find the expanding field of climate science and policy research. Climate science and policy research is by no means a stable academic field. Rather, it is byvirtue a broad, diverse and hybrid enquiry that includes a range of epistemological, theoretical and methodological orientations. While much of the research under this umbrella has developed in parallel to (and often in direct response to) climate change policy, the field also includes a wide set of scholarly efforts to challenge and problematise the ideas and discourses underpinning such policies. This scholarly diversity may question climate science and policyresearch as a meaningful academic label. And indeed, as indicated by the various contributions to this report, the interpretations of what this field is all about vary considerably. However, despite this variety, we argue that the different academic contributions to this field converge around the quest to interpret, understand, problematise and, at times, solve the challenges facing society under a changing climate. Some of this scholarly work has, directly or indirectly, sought to inform climate change policy. In other cases climate change has emerged as a vantage point for advancing the academic understanding of how links between nature and society, science and policy, development and environment, North and South are constituted and sustained. In this report we draw attention to a set of conceptual and methodological challenges that wethink arise from this broad scholarly enquiry. In the first chapter, Simonsson examines the importance of scale in climate change research. In order to effectively inform policy, she suggests that the academic study of climate change needs to adjust to the geographies ofclimate change policy-making. However, since science may not be able to deliver climate information at the spatial resolution asked by decision-makers, Simonsson also calls for greater scholarly awareness of the scalar challenges in climate science for policy. In the second chapter, Ostwald and Kuchler trace the conceptual genealogy of climate science and policy research. Starting in the historic development of the climate sciences, they end up in amuch more complex and inter-disciplinary research landscape. Ostwald and Kuchler ask how researchers in the field of climate science and policy research can relate to this complexity. In the third chapter, Glaas, Friman, Wilks and Hjerpe situate climate science and policy research in the scholarly debate on Mode 1 and Mode 2 science. Following a long-standing debate on the role of science in climate policy making, they ask whether this field of enquirygains its legitimacy from autonomous basic research produced in sites distinctly demarcatedfrom the world of policy (Mode 1), or from knowledge produced in the context of application (Mode 2). While it may be challenging for scholars of climate science and policy to engage inboth modes of knowledge production at the same time, the authors point at examples where the distinction between Mode 1 and Mode 2 breaks down into a new research domain whichthey label as Mode 1.5. A similar discussion is raised by Hansson and Wibeck in chapter four.While climate science and policy research can be interpreted as an academic field in its own right, its close links to action can also result in a difficult balancing act for researchers. Drawing upon examples from public acceptance studies, Hansson and Wibeck highlight problems that arise when climate researchers advance a normative agenda and hereby influence the people they study. Finally, in chapter five, Jonsson, Lövbrand and Andersson offer examples of research produced in direct collaboration with affected stakeholders. While such participatory research. often is said to increase the legitimacy and problem-solving capacity of climate science and policy research, the authors discuss how and when thatpromise holds true. The conceptual and methodological challenges discussed in this report are the result of a seminar series held at the Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research (CSPR) at Linköping University from autumn 2007 to spring 2008. As such the chapters reflect an ongoing debate and internal self-reflection at a centre that still is young and under development. Since its establishment in 2004, the CSPR has grown steadily and today functions as an interdisciplinary platform for more than 20 senior and junior researchers active in the field of climate science and policy research. In this report we do not set out to give a comprehensive picture of the challenges facing researchers at the CSPR, nor scholars inthe broader field of climate science and policy research. Neither is it a statement of whatCSPR is, but rather a bouquet of thoughts around our own research. By sharing our reflections with a broader scholarship, we do, however, hope that this report will contribute to theongoing debate on the scope, direction and function of this expanding and dynamic academic field.
Colombia y Venezuela son dos países hermanos y vecinos, que comparten una extensa y dinámica frontera terrestre de más de dos mil kilómetros. Los dos países han estado hermanados históricamente, en especial, desde los años setenta del siglo XX, cuando decenas de miles de colombianos migraron a Venezuela, por motivaciones económicas. Este movimiento continuó en las décadas siguientes, aunque en buena medida por razones humanitarias, debido al extenso conflicto armado colombiano. Colombia tiene una larga tradición como país de emigrantes y se estima que cerca de 5 millones de personas, cerca del 10 % de sus habitantes, han salido del país para desarrollar sus proyectos migratorios, principalmente en Estados Unidos, España y Venezuela. Desde al año 2015, por primera vez en su historia republicana, Colombia se ha convertido en un país de acogida de inmigración. Debido a la crisis política y económica que padece Venezuela, desde el año 2016 se ha venido intensificando la migración de venezolanos, principalmente con destino a otros países latinoamericanos, en especial a Colombia. A medida que la crisis se ha profundizado y ha derivado en una crisis humanitaria compleja, millones de venezolanos se han visto forzados a migrar, en una proporción que nunca antes había ocurrido en su país, acostumbrado a recibir migrantes de diferentes partes del mundo. Por lo tanto, se trata de una situación inédita para los dos países hermanos. En Colombia, por mucho tiempo, en especial en la época más dura de la guerra contra el narcotráfico y del conflicto armado, que tuvo en jaque al Estado y a las ciudades y mantuvo extensos territorios por fuera del control estatal, la imagen del país era la de un territorio peligroso y muchos gobiernos recomendaban a sus ciudadanos no visitar Colombia. Esta situación se ha mejorado, especialmente desde el fortalecimiento del Estado colombiano contra los alzados en armas y desde la firma de la paz con las FARC, la principal guerrilla, en el año 2016. Los colombianos se han ido acostumbrando a recibir turistas de manera creciente. Y ahora, también, a convivir con una numerosa comunidad de inmigrantes venezolanos. Como en muchos lugares del mundo, han surgido discursos que instrumentalizan a los extranjeros como chivo expiatorio para justificar problemáticas sociales como el desempleo, la informalidad laboral, la prostitución y la inseguridad urbana. Estos discursos forman parte de una estrategia perversa de algunos grupos políticos que, además, se han vendido a sí mismos como la única solución para evitar que el país se convierta en otra Venezuela, país que además fue garante y facilitador de los diálogos de paz con la guerrilla de las FARC. Estos discursos siguen la lógica de los discursos de odio, que justifican la discriminación y la violencia. En esta tesis doctoral se plantea como propósito analizar cómo ha sido la cobertura informativa de este fenómeno migratorio, por parte de la prensa colombiana, en concreto, de los dos periódicos de alcance nacional de mayor tradición: El Tiempo y El Espectador, durante el período comprendido entre 2016 y 2019. La observación se hizo en las versiones digitales de estos dos medios. Los contenidos recopilados fueron sistematizados en NVivo, y analizados con un instrumento que previamente fue validado con un panel de expertos en dos fases. Estos resultados se contrastaron a través de consulta a expertos y del análisis documental de guías y manuales de referencia, elaborados por entidades internacionales. ; Colombia and Venezuela are two neighboring countries, which share an extensive and dynamic land border of more than 2000 kilometers. The two countries have been historically twinned, especially since the 1970s, when tens of miles of Colombians migrated to Venezuela, for economic reasons. This movement continued in the following decades, for humanitarian reasons, due to the extensive Colombian armed conflict. Colombia has a long tradition as a country of emigrants and it is estimated that close to 5 million people, about 10% of its inhabitants, have left the country to carry out their migration projects, mainly in the United States, Spain and Venezuela. Since 2015, Colombia has become an immigration host country, for the first time in its republican history. The migration of Venezuelans has been intensifying since 2016, due to the political and economic crisis of the country. Migrant prefer to go to other countries in the region, mainly to Colombia. Millions of Venezuelans have been forced to migrate because of the humanitarian crisis. This event has never occurred in their country before since Venezuela was a receiving country of people from different countries. Therefore, this is a unique situation for the two countries. Colombia was seen as a dangerous country for a long time. The image of the country suffered in the worst period of the war against trafficking drugs and because of national armed conflict. In this time Colombian cities were sieged and their rural territories were outside of the governmental control. Many authorities recommended their citizens not to visit Colombia. This situation improved for the success against guerrillas and because the country signed the peace negotiation with the main guerrillas in 2016. International tourism has been increased and Colombia has hosted a large community of Venezuelan immigrants. As in many parts of the world, speeches have emerged that use foreigners as a scapegoat to justify social problems such as unemployment, informal employment, prostitution, and urban insecurity. These speeches are part of a perverse strategy of some political groups that have sold themselves as the only solution to prevent the country from becoming another Venezuela, a country that was also guarantor and facilitator of the peace dialogues with the FARC guerilla. These speeches follow the logic of hate speech, which justifies discrimination and violence. The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to analyze how the information coverage of this migratory phenomenon has been, by the Colombian press, specifically, of the two national newspapers with the longest tradition: El Tiempo and El Espectador, during the period between 2016 and 2019. An observation exercise was done in the digital versions of these two media. The collected contents were systematized in NVivo and analyzed with an instrument that was previously validated with a panel of experts in two phases. These results were contrasted through consultation with experts and the documentary analysis of reference guides and manuals, prepared by international entities.
The Farrington Daniels Memorial Lecture Solar Energy -- Symposia -- Photophysical and Photochemical Properties of Excited States -- Photophysical and Photochemical Properties of Excited States Introduction -- The Rules of Organic Molecular Fluorescence -- Elementary Photochemical Reactions -- Photoreactions in Biological Macromolecular Complexes -- Photoreactions in Biological Macromolecular Complexes (Introductory Remarks) -- Excited State Interactions and Photochemical Reactions in Protein-Nucleic Acid Complexes -- Structural Relationships in Macromolecular Complexes Determined by Photochemical Crosslinking -- Photodegradation of Biomembranes -- Photomovement in Microorganisms -- Photomovement in Microorganisms — Introduction to the Symposium -- Photomovement in Microorganisms: Strategies of Response -- Pigments Involved in the Photomotion of Microorganisms -- Speculations about Sensory Transduction -- Panel Discussion of Photomovement -- Photosynthesis -- Present Status of the O2 Evolution Model -- Low Temperature Reactions in Photosynthesis -- Control of the Electron Transfer by the Transmembrane Electric Field and Structure of System II Centers -- Modulating Effects on the Delayed Luminescence from Photosystem II of Photosynthesis -- In Vitro Photosynthesis -- Comparative Effects of Exciting and Ionizing Radiations -- Quantitative Mutagenesis by Chemicals and by Radiations: Prerequisites for the Establishment of Rad-Equivalences -- A Comparative Study of Several Survival Responses of Mammalian Cells after UV and after X-Irradiation -- Ionizing and Ultraviolet Radiations: Genetic Effects and Repair in Yeast -- Ataxia Telangiectasia: an Inherited Human Disease Involving Radiosensitivity, Malignancy and Defective DNA Repair -- Effects of Vacuum-UV and Excited Gases on DNA -- Photosensitized Reactions of Nucleic Acids and Proteins -- Photosensitization in Biological Systems -- The Role of Oxygen in Photosynthetized Reactions of Proteins and Nucleic Acids -- New Chemical Aspects of the Photoreaction between Psoralen and DNA -- Excited States of Skin-Sensitizing Psoralens and their Reactions with Nucleic Acids -- Photochemotherapeutic, Photobiological, and Photochemical Properties of Psoralens -- Repair of Radiation Damage -- DNA Repair Schemes in Bacteria and in Human Cells -- Postreplication Repair in Human Fibroblasts -- Studies on the Enzymology of Excision Repair in Extracts of Mammalian Cells -- Human Photoreactivating Enzymes -- Effects of Ultraviolet-Light and of Some Major Chemical Carcinogens of E. Coli K12 (?) -- Solar Energy Conversion Systems -- Hydrogen Metabolism in Photosynthetic Organisms, the Mechanims of Hydrogen Photoevolution -- Chemical Reactions for the Utilization of Solar Energy -- Photosynthesis — a Practical Energy Source? -- Photoproduction of Hydrogen in Photosynthetic Systems -- Determinants of Feasibility in Bioconversion of Solar Energy -- Photobiology in Medicine -- Photobiology in Medicine -- Photophysiological Research — Preventive Medicine -- Erythropoietic Protoporphyria — the Disease, and its treatment with Beta-Carotene -- Photochemotherapy of Psoriasis (PUVA) -- Advantages and Disadvantages of Phototherapy in Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia -- Phototherapy of Neonatal Jaundice: Effect on Blood Biorhythms -- Phototherapy of Human Tumors -- Cancerogenic Effects of Radiation -- Carcinogenic Effects of Radiation — Introduction -- Defective DNA Repair and Cancer -- Experimental Ultraviolet Carcinogenesis -- Sunlight and Melanomas -- Cutaneous Carcinogenic Effects of Sunlight in Humans -- Role of DNA Repair in Physical, Chemical and Viral Carcinogenesis -- Light and Development -- Control of Chloroplast Development and Chlorophyll Synthesis by Phytochrome -- Progress Toward an Understanding of the Molecular Mode of Action of Phytochrome -- Phototransformations of Phytochrome -- Biogenesis of Chloroplast Membranes in Algae -- Light-Induced Cytochrome Reduction in Neurospora Crassa Membrane Fractions -- Light Induced Degeneration of Skin: Chronic Actinic Dermatosis -- Studies on the Pathomechanics of Chronic Actinic Dermatosis -- Clinical Pattern of the Actinic Chronic Dermatosis -- Distribution and General Factors Causing Chronic Actinic Dermatosis -- Environment-Space Interactions: Photobiological Implications -- Introductory Remarks -- The Stratospheric Photochemistry of Chlorine Compounds and its Influence on the Ozone Layer -- The Effects of Solar UV-B Radiation (280–315 nm) on Higher Plants: Implications of stratospheric Ozone Reduction -- Epidemiology of Malignant Melanoma of the Skin in Norway with Special Reference to the Effect of Solar Radiation -- Estimating the Increase in Skin Cancer Caused by Increases in Ultraviolet Radiation -- Vision -- MSP Measurements of Rod and Cone Visual Pigments in a Retina (Scardinius Erythrophthalmus) that can be either Vitamin A1 — or Vitamin A2—Based -- The Ionochromic Behavior of Gecko Visual Pigments -- Membrane Adaptations of Visual Photoreceptors for the Analysis of Plane-Polarized Light -- Dynamic Aspects of the Molecular Architecture of Photoreceptor Membranes -- The Photochemistry of Rhodopsin Excited in the 280 nm (?) Band -- Degenerations of the Retina Induced by Light -- Mutagenic Effects of Radiation -- Mutagenic Repair Pathways in Yeast -- Pathways of UV Repair and Mutagenesis in Saccharomyces Cerevisiae -- Mitochondrial Mutagenesis by 2-6-Diaminopurine in Saccharomyces Cerevisiae: Effect of UV Light -- On the Molecular Mechanism of Mutagenesis by Carcinogenic Mutagens -- Chromosome Effects Induced by Low Levels of Mutagens -- Round Tables -- Units, Nomenclature and Dosimetry in Photobiology -- Protection from UV and Visible Radiations -- Topical Photoprotection of Normal Skin -- Photochemotherapy (PUVA) of Psoriasis -- Photobiology and Education -- Author Index.
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PurposeThe question of public debt management for both developed and developing economies has created an enormous amount of political as well as academic interest. The purpose of this paper is to examine how governance affects public debt accumulation in the Arabian Gulf countries during the period between 1996 and 2015 period. The six Worldwide Governance indicators (WGI) (voice and accountability (VAA), political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness (GEFF), regulatory quality (RQ), rule of law (RL) and control of corruption) were used to measure the quality of governance in these countries. The results show that an increase in every governance indicator except control of corruption leads to a decrease in public debt.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate a dynamic specification of debt to GDP ratio to study how governance affects public debt accumulation in the Arabian Gulf countries during the 1996–2015 period. The dependent variable in this study is the ratio of public debt to GDP. This study relies on the six measures of institution's quality given by the WGI. These variables are the VAA, political stability and absence of violence (PSAV)/terrorism, GEFF, RQ, RL and control of corruption. Additional control variables are also incorporated to account for the omitted variables bias. These include the rate of inflation (Al-Marhubi, 2000) and the independent variable lagged one period. The study of the statistical relationship between institutional quality and public debt allows us to quantify the direct effect of governance on public debt, which is the effect that goes through an increase in spending or a reduction in fiscal revenues and not through a decrease in GDP growth. The econometric estimation is carried out using panel fixed effects and GLS random effects.FindingsThe estimation results confirm the core hypothesis, which considers that the poor governance in a country the higher is the ratio of public debt to GDP, ceteris paribus. Indeed, five of the worldwide Governance Index are negatively correlated with public debt ratio. These indices are GEFF, VAA, PSAV, RQ and RL. Empirical findings for other independent variables are consistent with those of empirical studies in the literature. The coefficient on the independent variable per capita income has the theoretically expected negative sign and it is highly statistically significant, implying that the higher the per capita income in a country, the lower the ratio of public debt. The independent variable government expenditure has the theoretically expected positive sign suggesting that the higher the government expenditure, the higher the ratio of public debt. The education variable has negative but not statistically significant coefficients. The independent variables (inflation, unemployment rate and lag debt ratio) have the expected signs and are highly statistically significant, implying that the higher their value in a country, the higher the ratio of public debt to GDP. Having the theoretically expected effect, the GDP growth variable is negatively correlated with public debt ratio but its coefficients are not statistically significant.Originality/valueAlthough the literature on the damaging effects of poor governance on growth is abundant (Tanzi and Davoodi, 2002; Mauro, 1996; Mo, 2001; Mauro, 1996; Brunetti et al., 1997; Campos et al., 1999; Al-Marhubi, 2000; Depken and Lafountain, 2006; Mauro, 1998), only very recently the relationship between institutional quality and public debt accumulation has been addressed. By reviewing the research on political and institutional determinants of public debt, it was found that there are few studies, which have examined regional differences, and even fewer ones have focused on the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Therefore, this paper aims to fill the gap by focusing on this economic region. Furthermore, when studying the relationship between the quality of institutions and the accumulation of public debt, existing studies focus only on corruption index and neglect other determinants of governance. Thus, a second contribution of the study is to investigate how institution quality, through the six WGI, affects public debt accumulation. Furthermore, given the recent rise in public debt in GCC countries, an increasingly important question is what policy actions do these countries need to take to ensure that their debt will be sustainable and will not overwhelm their financial system? we can add: while there has been much attention given to the political and economic explanations of public debt accumulation in developing and developed countries on a global scale, scholars so far have not focused on this debate in high income oil producers.
It is now widely accepted that the residential sector offers significant potential for carbon mitigation. This is true for both the overall magnitude of emissions reductions and the cost per tonne of CO2(eq) mitigated. However, both the scope and scale of potential carbon mitigation pathways remain controversial. The pace of decarbonisation is also openly debated. Examples of some of these contentions include: centralised versus decentralised energy supply; energy efficiency versus low carbon generation; demolition versus renovation of the existing building stock and behaviour change versus technological solutions. Incontrovertibly, any one of these seemingly apparent tensions is not mutually exclusive, and the ultimate decarbonisation pathway will likely consist of most if not all of these proposed solutions being implemented to some varying degree. Despite the significant potential for carbon mitigation in the built environment, deep cuts have not yet materialised. It is argued that this lack of progress stems from a poor understanding of the highly complex socio-economic, socio-dynamic and technical physical systems that underpin energy use in dwellings.Modelling this requires requires novel methods capable of capturing the complexities that arise from government policies, physical processes and technologies, human behaviour and economics. Moreover, as the effects of climate change are directly caused by the global stock of CO2(eq) in the atmosphere, the pace of decarbonisation is pivotal. New methods may prove important for representing the interactions that occur between technological sub-systems but also for modelling how the system may change over time, including feedbacks and delays endogenous to the system. The motivation for this thesis aims to explore decarbonisation opportunities from the residential sector by adopting an integrated systems perspective whilst maintaining the complexity and heterogeneity that naturally exists within the residential sector and between people. ; The residential sector in England is often identified as having the largest potential for emissions reduction at some of the lowest costs when compared against other sectors. In spite of this, decarbonisation within the residential sector has not materialised. This thesis explores the complexities of decarbonising the residential sector in England using a whole systems approach. It is only when the interaction between social, psychological, regulatory, technical, material and economic factors are considered together that the behaviour of the system emerges and the relationships between different system components can be explained giving insight into the underlying issues of decarbonisation. Building regulations, assessments and certification standards are critical for motivating and driving innovation towards decarbonising the building stock. Many existing building performance and evaluation tools are shown to be ineffective and confound different policy objectives. Not only is the existing UK SAP standard shown to be a poor predictor of dwelling level energy demand but it perversely incentivises households to increase CO2 emissions. At the dwelling level, a structural equation model is developed to quantify direct, indirect and total effects on residential energy demand. Interestingly, building efficiency is shown to have reciprocal causality with a household's propensity to consume energy. That is, dwellings with high-energy efficiency consume less energy, but homes with a propensity to consume more energy are also more likely to have higher energy efficiency. Internal dwelling temperature is one of the most important parameters for explaining residential energy demand over a heterogeneous building stock. Yet bottom up energy demand models inadequately incorporate internal temperature as a function of human behaviour. A panel model is developed to predict daily mean internal temperatures from individual dwellings. In this model, socio-demographic, behavioural, physical and environmental variables are combined to estimate the daily fluctuations of mean internal temperature demand. The internal temperature prediction model is then incorporated in a bottom-up engineering simulation model. The residential energy demand model is then used to project decarbonisation scenarios to 2050. Under the assumption of consistent energy demand fuel share allocation, modelling results suggest that emissions from the residential sector can be reduced from 125 MtCO2 to 44 MtCO2 after all major energy efficiency measures have been applied, the power sector is decarbonised and all newly constructed dwellings are zero carbon. Meeting future climate change targets will thus not only require extensive energy efficiency upgrades to all existing dwellings but also the complete decarbonisation of end use energy demand. Such a challenge can only be met through the transformation of existing building regulations, models that properly allow for the effects of human behaviour, and flexible policies capable of maximising impact from a heterogeneous residential building stock. ; Cambridge Econometrics Bursary, University College London (CARB-HES dataset)
The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has seen a decade of remarkable growth and income convergence. Growth has been a key driver for reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It has been debated how much of this decade of growth has been driven by policy reforms and how much was due to the favorable external conditions. While external factors were supportive and relevant, the effect of domestic policies was just as relevant for explaining LAC's recent growth performance. The emphasis of domestic policy has shifted from stabilization policies to structural policies. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. The authors analyze growth in LAC using descriptive statistics and growth econometrics. The authors use these results for explaining the pattern of growth in LAC over the last decade, for looking ahead, and to identify potential policy gaps.
This article is an inductive argumentation and an empirical-analytical paradigm that evaluates the actual relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in country groups of the G8 considered as developed in a period of time from 1960 to 2011. It was developed an Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root (ADF), a Granger Causality Test and a Johansen Cointegration test. The results evidence the non-stationary of constrains in both countries. It was obtained a VAR model with two variables with a number of lags of four - VAR2 (4) to which were tested for causality by demonstrating a unidirectionality of GDP per capita to CO2. Keywords: economic growth, economic development, income distribution, environmental economics. References [1]G. Brundtland, «Our Common Future,» de Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development , 1987. [2]R. Bermejo, Del desarrollo sostenible según Brundtland a la sostenibilidad como biomimesis, Bilbao: Hegoa, 2014. [3]R. B. and. P. C. Fander Falconí, «Flacso,» 16 03 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.flacsoandes.edu.ec/agora/62767-la-discutible-curva-de-kuznets. [Last access: 15 01 2021]. [4]E. Urteaga, «Las teorías económicas del desarrollo sostenible,» Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 32, nº 89, pp. 113-162, 2009. [5]V. K. Smith, Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1979. [6]J. y. A. Medina, «Ingreso y desigualdad: la Hipótesis de Kuznets en el caso boliviano,» Espacios, vol. 38, nº31, p. 23, 2017. [7]M. Ahluwalia, «Inequality, poverty and development, » Journal of Development Economics, nº 3, pp. 307-342, 1976. [8]A. and R. D. Alesina, «Distributive politics and economic growth,» Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 109, nº 2, pp. 465-490, 1994. [9]R. Barro, «Inequality and growth in a panel of countries, » Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 5, nº 1, pp. 5-32, 2000. [10]M. A. Galindo, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico,» de Anuario jurídico y económico escurialense, 2002, pp. 473-502. [11]A. Álvarez, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico, Información Comercial Española, ICE,» Revista de economía, nº 835, pp. 95-100, 2007. [12]J. C. Núñez, «Crecimiento económico y distribución del ingreso: una perspectiva del Paraguay,» Población y Desarrollo, nº 43, pp. 54-61, 2016. [13]S. Kuznets, «Economic Growth and Income Inequality, » American Economic Review, nº 45, pp. 1-28, 1955. [14]J. A. and. C. J. Araujo, «Relación entre la desigualdad de la renta y el crecimiento económico en Brasil: 1995-2012.,» Problemas del desarrollo, vol. 46, nº 180, pp.129-150, 2015. [15]F. V. A. and P. C. Correa, «La Curva Medioambiental de Kuznets: Evidencia Empírica para Colombia Grupo de Economía Ambiental (GEA),» Semestre Económico, vol. 8, nº 15, pp. 13-30, 2005. [16]W. Malenbaum, World Demand for Raw Materials in 1985 and 2000, McGraw-Hill: New York, 1978. [17]W. Beckerman, «Economists, scientists, and environmental catastrophe,» Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 24, nº 3, 1972. [18]G. y. K. A. Grossman, «Economic Growth and the Environment,» The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, nº 2, pp. 353-377, 1995. [19]N. Stokey, «Are there Limits to Growth?,» International Economic Review, vol. 39, nº 1, 1998. [20]W. and. C. W. Jaeger, «A Theoretical Basis for the Environmental Inverted-U Curve and Implications for International Trade,» de Discussant: Clive Chapple, New York, 1998. [21]T. B. K. B. R. and. G. K. Cavlovic, «A Mets-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies,» Agricultural and Resource Economics, nº 29, pp. 32-42, 2000. [22]M. and. S. T. Heil, «Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience, » Environment and Development Economics, vol. 6, nº 1, pp. 63-83, 2001. [23]U. S. R. and E. B. Soytas, «Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States,» Ecological Economics, vol. 62, nº 3, pp. 482-489, 2007.[24]C. W. J. Granger, «Investigating causal relations by econometrics models and cross spectral methods,» Econometrica, nº 37, pp. 424-438, 1969. [25]M. and U. R. Nasir, «Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation,» Energy Policy, vol. 39, nº 3, pp. 1857-1864,2011. [26]S. Johansen, «Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,» Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, nº 2, pp. 231-254, 1988. [27]B. Goldman, «Meta-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies: Determining the Cause of the Curve's Presence,» de Honors Projects, 2012. [28] M. B. and T. T. Fosten, «Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from CO2 and SO2 emissions in the United Kingdom,» Ecological Economics, vol. 76, pp. 25-33, 2012. ; El presente artículo es de carácter investigativo con razonamiento inductivo y paradigma empírico-analítico, evalúa la relación existente entre el Producto Interno Bruto Per Cápita– PIB per cápita y el dióxido de carbono – CO2 en los grupos de países del G-8 considerados como desarrollados con un periodo de análisis de 1960 a 2011, se utilizó la prueba de raíz unitaria Dickey-Fuller Aumentada – DFA, se generó un modelo de vectores autorregresivos – VAR, se realizóla prueba de causalidad de Granger y se desarrolló la prueba de cointegración de Johansen. Los resultados demuestran la no estacionariedad de las variables en estudio, se obtuvo un modelo VAR de dos variables con un número de rezagos óptimo de cuatro – VAR2 (4) a lo cual se le realizó la prueba de causalidad demostrando una unidireccionalidad por parte del PIB per cápita al CO2. Palabras clave: crecimiento económico, desarrollo económico, distribución de la renta, economía del medio ambiente. Referencias [1]G. Brundtland, «Our Common Future,» de Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development , 1987. [2]R. Bermejo, Del desarrollo sostenible según Brundtland a la sostenibilidad como biomimesis, Bilbao: Hegoa, 2014. [3]R. B. y. P. C. Fander Falconí, «Flacso,» 16 03 2016. [En línea]. Available: https://www.flacsoandes.edu.ec/agora/62767-la-discutible-curva-de-kuznets. [Últimoacceso: 15 01 2021]. [4]E. Urteaga, «Las teorías económicas del desarrollo sostenible,» Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 32, nº 89, pp. 113-162, 2009. [5]V. K. Smith, Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1979. [6]J. y. A. Medina, «Ingreso y desigualdad: la Hipótesis de Kuznets en el caso boliviano,» Espacios, vol. 38, nº31, p. 23, 2017. [7]M. Ahluwalia, «Inequality, poverty and development, » Journal of Development Economics, nº 3, pp. 307-342, 1976. [8]A. y. R. D. Alesina, «Distributive politics and economic growth,» Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 109, nº 2, pp. 465-490, 1994. [9]R. Barro, «Inequality and growth in a panel of countries, » Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 5, nº 1, pp. 5-32, 2000. [10]M. A. Galindo, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico,» de Anuario jurídico y económico escurialense, 2002, pp. 473-502. [11]A. Álvarez, «Distribución de la renta y crecimiento económico, Información Comercial Española, ICE,» Revista de economía, nº 835, pp. 95-100, 2007. [12]J. C. Núñez, «Crecimiento económico y distribución del ingreso: una perspectiva del Paraguay,» Población y Desarrollo, nº 43, pp. 54-61, 2016. [13]S. Kuznets, «Economic Growth and Income Inequality, » American Economic Review, nº 45, pp. 1-28, 1955. [14]J. A. y. C. J. Araujo, «Relación entre la desigualdad de la renta y el crecimiento económico en Brasil: 1995-2012.,» Problemas del desarrollo, vol. 46, nº 180, pp.129-150, 2015. [15]C. Correa, F. Vasco y C. Perez «La Curva Medioambiental de Kuznets: Evidencia Empírica para Colombia Grupo de Economía Ambiental (GEA),» Semestre Económico, vol. 8, nº 15, pp. 13-30, 2005. [16]W. Malenbaum, World Demand for Raw Materials in 1985 and 2000, McGraw-Hill: New York, 1978. [17]W. Beckerman, «Economists, scientists, and environmental catastrophe,» Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 24, nº 3, 1972. [18]G. y. K. A. Grossman, «Economic Growth and the Environment,» The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, nº 2, pp. 353-377, 1995. [19]N. Stokey, «Are there Limits to Growth?,» International Economic Review, vol. 39, nº 1, 1998. [20]W. y. C. W. Jaeger, «A Theoretical Basis for the Environmental Inverted-U Curve and Implications for International Trade,» de Discussant: Clive Chapple, New York, 1998. [21]T. B. K. B. R. y. G. K. Cavlovic, «A Mets-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies,» Agricultural and Resource Economics, nº 29, pp. 32-42, 2000. [22]M. y. S. T. Heil, «Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience, » Environment and Development Economics, vol. 6, nº 1, pp. 63-83, 2001. [23]U. S. R. y. E. B. Soytas, «Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States,» Ecological Economics, vol. 62, nº 3, pp. 482-489, 2007.[24]C. W. J. Granger, «Investigating causal relations by econometrics models and cross spectral methods,» Econometrica, nº 37, pp. 424-438, 1969. [25]M. y. U. R. Nasir, «Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation,» Energy Policy, vol. 39, nº 3, pp. 1857-1864,2011. [26]S. Johansen, «Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,» Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, nº 2, pp. 231-254, 1988. [27]B. Goldman, «Meta-Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies: Determining the Cause of the Curve's Presence,» de Honors Projects, 2012. [28] M. B. y. T. T. Fosten, «Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from CO2 and SO2 emissions in the United Kingdom,» Ecological Economics, vol. 76, pp. 25-33, 2012.
In: Niessen , L W 2002 , ' Roads to health : multi-state modelling of population health and resource use ' , Doctor of Philosophy , University of Groningen .
The book has described the dynamics of disease occurrence in populations and gives an overview of the major known health determinants of mortality decline, health risk factors and health services, and studies the health interventions options in two example diseases i.e. diabetes and stroke. We postulated that a lifetime multi-state modelling approach can be useful to describe disease processes and health care costs in populations and outlined the approach in the second chapter. After describing various case studies in the five application sections, a number of conclusions can be drawn. The multi-state models allow for analysing dynamic disease processes throughout a lifetime in relation to the actual stage of the health transition in a country. The dynamic components are threefold: 1) the substitution, clustering and synergism of health determinants and diseases, 2) the effectiveness and efficiency of health services, and 3) the effect of ageing of populations in quantitative and qualitative terms as both early and late survival improves. At all stages, there is a trade-off with other diseases when a first disease is treated. The model approach quantifies these effects and allows for an analysis in time. Chapter 4 shows that substitution and competition of multiple health risks, at all ages, may partly explain the lack of results of the introduction of health programmes as in international co-operation in health. The same chapter shows that multiple, also low cost, roads to population health exist by elimination of health risks and by improvement of disease survival. Computation of optimal pathways is possible. The chapters on stroke and diabetes show the relationship of health intervention mixes options, available resources, health benefits, and optimisation options. The stroke analysis shows that, in case of high available budgets, costly clinical interventions for all patients can be more cost-effective than low cost clinical interventions for small groups of high-risk patients. The diabetes chapter shows that, in case of low available budgets, low cost clinical interventions for small groups of high-risk patients can be more cost-effective than prevention. The general conclusion is that multi-state models allow for computation of multiple, optimum paths to health throughout a lifetime, depending on the societal resources available. Health policy relevance As multi-state models allow for quantification of the health and costs influences of each health determinant, including health interventions, they facilitate rational policy making. Broad policy questions in relation to the role of health determinants and health care provision can be specified, modelled and explored like e.g. the use of a zero health expenditure scenarios (chapter 4) and in the use of interventions proposed in guidelines (chapter 5-8). For other broad or detailed policy questions the model approach can be expanded or simplified according depending on the nature of the question. Ethical and political choices will have to remain with the domain of politicians and the public. A lot of the evidence-based approaches, prominent on the national and international agendas for health policy and health research, frequently and increasingly make use of health modelling approaches. It is unclear what the implications of this policy approach are for the production and distribution of health in populations, given the notion of multiple determinants in health. It is equally unclear what kind of barriers there are to the adoption of evidence-based approaches in health care practice. Chapter 9 outlines the ways in which health policy is informed by the results from health research and health modelling. It summarises approaches in health at three impact levels: inter-sectoral assessment, national health care policy, and evidence-based medicine in everyday practice. Consensus is growing on the role of broad and specific health determinants, including health care, as well as on priority setting based on the burden of diseases. In spite of methodological constraints, there is a demand for inter-sectoral assessments, especially in health sector reform. Initiators of policy changes in other sectors may be held responsible for providing the evidence related to health. There are limited possibilities for priority setting at the national health care policy level. Hence, there is a decentralisation of responsibilities for resource use towards providers and health insurance companies. They are encouraged to assume agency roles for both patients and society and ask to promote and deliver effective and efficient health care. Governments need to design national frameworks to strengthen their organisation to enhance their roles. The formulation of national health guidelines supported by evidence on effectiveness and efficiency will be one essential element in this process. With the increasing number of advocates for the enhancement of population health in the policy arenas, evidence-based approaches provide the insights, information, and tools to help with priority setting. RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS Model validation The book observes the start of multi-state modelling of population health in epidemiology, demography, public health, and health economics research. Up to now there are relatively few related research efforts. The designs, implementation, and application of generic multi-state approaches have been initiated. Important is the validity of the results. More model calibration and validation can and should take place. Validation can be structural validation (chapter 3) or external validation, using external time series (chapters 4 and 5). The developed models have relatively few free variables that can be used for calibration and reproduction of population-based time series of morbidity and mortality. An important free variable to be use for calibration is the non-attributable incidence of diseases. In combination with the risk-attributable fraction, it results in the observed disease incidence. The population attributive risk approach should be developed further to account for regression dilution bias and the occurrence of multiple diseases and multiple determinants. Another important calibration parameter is the effectiveness of prevention and curative services in daily settings. Related parameters, such as coverage, are usually based on cross-sectional studies. Incidentally, longitudinal follow-up may be able to give data on day-to-day effectiveness. Also comparison with special population groups that have remained without an intervention may give supportive evidence like studies on religious, cultural groups, on the uninsured, or on 'natural' experiments like war or strikes. A third group of calibration parameters is disease-specific mortality and morbidity. This group can be used for the large disease categories that we used for the applications (chapter 3-5). This would be for Mexico for the period 1950-1990 and for India for the period 1980-1990 based on the Federal Sample Registration Survey. Last, disease-specific calibration is possible for The Netherlands 1900-1990 and also, but with more uncertainties, from 1860 onwards. Expert validation of model structure and assumptions could be more explored and transparency increased. Examples are review procedures and panel discussions with researchers, policy makers and the public or its representatives. This would also give more room to account for the more subjective or political choices to be a priori made. Future research The main characteristic of the multi-state approach is a comprehensive consideration of disease occurrence, disability and the cost of disease through a lifetime at the population
ABSTRACT The main objectives of this study is to determine the interactions between deposit interest rates, foreign exchange rates and stock market index (LQ45) in Indonesia pre and post crisis 2008. The data period before the crisis is October 2000 until November 2008. The data period after the crisis is December 2008 until December 2015. Descriptive quantitative analysis is used in this research. Descriptive analysis method is performed by using analytical table and graphic. Quantitative analysis method is performed by making a regression equation econometric model with time series method to describe the presence or absence of the influence of the independent variable towards the dependant variable. The result showed that during the pre crisis 2008, unidirectional causality existed from Deposit Interest Rates towards Foreign Exchange Rates, Stock Market Index (LQ45) towards Deposit Interest Rates, Deposit Interest Rates towards Stock Market Index(LQ45), and Stock Market Index (LQ45) towards Foreign Exchange Rates. The result post crisis 2008 showed that unidirectional causality existed from Foreign Exchange Rates towards Deposit Interest Rates, Deposit Interest Rates towards Foreign Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Index (LQ45) towards Foreign Exchange Rates. It is found that the direction of causality between the three variables tends to demonstrate a hit-and-run behavior and changes according to the lag selection. This implies that great caution should be taken when interpreting granger causality result. Keywords: Deposit Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange Rates, Stock Market Index, LQ45, Granger Causality and Subprime MortgageBIBLIOGRAPHY (2008, September 15). 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Some of the silliest, most alarmist, most partisan-driven dog-whistle debate over legislation this session of the Louisiana Legislature has come over a couple of bills determining appointed officials to state boards.
HB 462 by Republican state Sen. Valarie Hodges would give the governor power to appoint chairmen to the boards where he has at least half the appointments. Out of the 483 boards currently extant, when parsing out gubernatorial apportion proportions, appointment by other elected officials, and other statutory constraints, the bill would affect about 30 percent of these.
Political leftists, some special interests, and their water carriers inside and outside the Legislature have gone apoplectic over this, alleging it's some sinister plot by GOP Gov. Jeff Landry, who supports it, to run roughshod over that part of state government. They appeared most perturbed by the fact that this bill would extend this new authority to the five boards that oversee and manage higher education, characterizing it as "politicization."
Take it from a 35-year veteran of Louisiana higher education: anybody who doesn't think academia is already politicized, and highly so, has no clue as to what goes on in it. And anyone who doesn't think the boards themselves aren't reflections of the views of who appointed them – for now every single one by Democrat former Gov. John Bel Edwards although a few Landry appointments soon will receive official confirmation – doesn't live in the real world. Public higher education is thoroughly politicized already, and this bill does nothing to alter this one way or the other.
This nothingness is due in part to the role of the chairmen of these various panels, which have next to no additional power over any other member and certainly not over the collective. For example for the Board of Regents, a majority of members can ask for a special meeting from the chairman, and any four members can put an item on a meeting agenda. If enough members want something, they can get it regardless of who the chairman is or how that person got the job. More generally, as the law addresses only those boards where a governor appoints a majority which already given time means like-minded appointees with the governor will assume power, this change hardly alters the dynamic concerning the pursuit of gubernatorial priorities.
Staying with higher education boards, keep in mind that almost every state governor appoints these members, in some cases at individual schools. Others allow their chief executive to go even further that could spark alleged "politicization," such as governors appointing chief executives of higher education, and a few even have direct election of higher education board members that is thoroughly political. So, this change seems hardly radical and opposition for this specific reason is best understood as making a mountain out of a molehill as an attempt to score political points and spread propaganda.
Objections from largely the same quarter also have come over SB 497 by Republican state Sen. Blake Miguez that would remove the role of heads of the state's private universities in nominating people to serve on the state's Board of Ethics. The governor selects seven nominees from among those proffered by these educrats and each legislative leader another couple, input which the bill would cut out of the process.
In evaluating the claim that this removal as well politicizes matters, see the above, but more specifically: the politicized nature of higher education being as it is, any chief executive of a college is a political animal and brings certain political prejudices to their jobs. They do not, in any way, depoliticize the selection process. And, as author Miguez points out, they are unduly concentrated in New Orleans that raises more questions about political bias and regionalism.
Miguez initiated an amendment when the bill reached the House floor that would expand membership that in the process would decrease the proportion of gubernatorial appointees and require that a third come from ex-legislators, another third from ex-judges, and another from none of the above. This would put the board's composition and selection in a form similar to a majority of states, as at present Louisiana has a format unique among them with this interposing of a very narrow cross-section of private citizens that have vetting privileges. Therefore, pay no attention to framing this change as some kind of weakening of ethics enforcement, as the current system neither provided insulation from politics nor is in its format is a better method than that proposed in the bill that mirrors many other states'.
In both cases, while there is some principled if uninformed opposition to each, the vast majority of that represents an unhinged howl by political forces removed by the electorate far from political power, whose baying attempts to cast aspersions upon and slow down the political agendas of the winners of those elections. Both bills are in the Senate for concurrence. Senators and Landry need to tune out the silliness from objectors and give the necessary approvals to turn each into law.
Tese de doutoramento em Economia, apresentada à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra ; Many countries strive to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by liberalizing their FDI regulations and providing investment incentives, including lower income taxes or income tax holidays, as well as import duty exemptions. The rationale for these policies stems from the expectation of externalities from FDI, since foreign firms possess technological advantages such as advanced know-how, marketing and managerial skills and international experience, that can be transmitted to domestic firms through different channels, and may stimulate technological changes in the host country. We draw on macroeconomic models of technology diffusion to uncover empirical patterns of externalities from FDI for the Portuguese manufacturing sector, using a new balanced panel dataset with a total of 5,045 manufacturing firms (domestic and foreign) for the period 1995-2007. Subsequently, we attempt to make policy recommendations to boost productivity and growth, through the analysis of the transitional dynamics under the real convergence process, in which the mechanism of technological catching-up allows to relate FDI with the manufacturing productivity, clustered by technological groups, following Pavitt (1984). In contrast with earlier literature for the Portuguese manufacturing sector, that find controversial results for 1996-2000, our results seem to confirm that foreign presence is positively and significantly correlated with TFP growth, but only in certain industries and depending on the size of the domestic firms. In one-period lag, we find positive externalities in small firms in scale-intensive industries, through backward linkages, (basic metals and other transport equipment) and through forward linkages (metal products). Our research highlights the fact that the heterogeneous nature of manufacturing firms and the uneven distribution of externalities across industries that entail time to occur, require the use of dynamic models with panel data disaggregated by technological groups and firm size. To pursuit our research objectives, we start by analysing the transmission mechanisms of externalities from FDI to the productivity of domestic firms, focusing on linkages with foreign customers (backward) and suppliers (forward). We focus on five Western European countries to provide a broader picture of the determinant factors of externalities from FDI in Developed Countries (DCs), through its classification, along the lines of the Theory of Heterogeneous Firms. This allows for a better understanding of the relevant variables to include in the empirical studies that focus on DCs, which are concentration, domestic and foreign R&D expenditures, scale, technological gap, and capital intensity. In addition, applying multiple imputation in Stata 13.0, we construct a database that integrates a significant number of the variables necessary to empirically investigate the existence of externalities from FDI in the Portuguese manufacturing sector. The variables, collected from AMADEUS, Quadros do Pessoal, EU Klems and OCDE databases, measure three dimensions: Total Factor Productivity; foreign presence; and variables that may influence the productivity of domestic firms, either directly or indirectly, i.e., affecting the impact of foreign presence on the Total Factor Productivity, such as indicators of firm efficiency and R&D activities, Our new panel data provides a set of useful 15 indicators for 4,685 domestic firms and 360 firms with foreign capital, in the manufacturing sector. The empirical analysis follows a two-stage strategy. First, we employ the Wooldridge-Levinshon and Petrin estimator, which is considered a robust method to estimate the TFP. Then, we regress the TFP on several explanatory variables using the system-GMM estimator that is unbiased and consistent in the presence of omitted variables and endogenous explanatory variables. Our dynamic model consider time lags up to two periods. Our analysis at the aggregate level (i.e. for the whole manufacturing sector) shows positive and significant externalities via backward and forward linkages, in one-period lag, However, we found negative horizontal externalities in the three periods, as well as negative vertical externalities, both in the current period and with a two-period lag. The analysis with industry breakdown (classified by technological groups), and controlling for firm size, showed that firms (small and large) of scale-intensive industries, and small firms in science-based industries, benefit from positive externalities. Finally, we analyse the relationship between FDI inward flows and a set of innovation (such as R&D expenditures as a percentage of GDP and the number of scientific publications) and absorptive capacity indicators (such as the GDP per capita and the number of graduates). The purpose is twofold. First, we assess whether FDI inflows, during the last 30 years of European integration, have contributed to increase the productivity, Secondly, we evaluate the efficacy of FDI policies to promote innovation and its coordination with measures aiming to promote the absorptive capacity. To promote innovation, the Investment promotion agency should continue to encourage foreign projects in traditional industries because they appear to benefit more from vertical externalities from FDI, followed by the industries where Portugal has a comparative advantage. Regarding absorptive capacity, we suggest new strategies, such as the resumption of focus on productivity and the articulation of this goal with the innovation policy to support research and education. Since, as we have proved, that real convergence is not an automatic process triggered by foreign presence, we suggest that, it can be assisted by a reinforcement of supply-side measures, with an integrated industrial policy, favouring certain industries where there is evidence of positive externalities from FDI. This is crucial because, Portugal is a small open economy that makes it vulnerable to external factors that hinder the economic growth. Since the new millennium, the country lost the backwardness advantages from which it benefited since the 1950's. In addition, the global financial crisis led to a drop in industrial production accompanied by a reduction in FDI attraction. In this context, technology transfer, that can occur due to foreign presence, can increase the TFP and promote long-term growth, especially in the manufacturing sector, which is a driver of technological change, because it can generate high rates of innovation and drag capabilities to other sectors. Our policy recommendations regarding the kind of FDI projects to attract to the manufacturing sector represent an important contribute since, to the best of our knowledge, there are no prior attempts to perform a normative analysis of the investment promotion policy in Portugal, other than those that are inherent to the sphere of action of AICEP, which cannot be disclosed to the academic community. ; Muitos países se têm empenhado em atrair Investimento Direto Estrangeiro (IDE), liberalizando a sua legislação sobre investimento estrangeiro e concedendo incentivos aos projetos de investimento estrangeiro, incluindo benefícios fiscais. A razão para essas políticas decorre da expectativa de ocorrência de externalidades de IDE, uma vez que as empresas estrangeiras possuem vantagens tecnológicas, como conhecimentos, capacidades de marketing e de gestão e experiência internacional, que podem ser transmitidas para as empresas nacionais, através de diferentes canais e podem estimular a mudança tecnológica no país hospedeiro. Nós baseamo-nos em modelos macroeconómicos de difusão tecnológica para revelar os padrões empíricos de externalidades do IDE na industria transformadora portuguesa, utilizando um novo conjunto de dados em painel balanceado, com um total de 5.045 empresas (nacionais e estrangeiras) para o período 1995-2007. Posteriormente, tentamos fazer recomendações de política tendentes ao aumento da produtividade e ao crescimento económico, através da análise da dinâmica de transição no processo de convergência real, em que o mecanismo de recuperação tecnológica permite relacionar o IDE com a produtividade, agrupada por grupos tecnológicos, de acordo com Pavitt (1984). Em contraste com a literatura anterior para a industria transformadora portuguesa, que revela resultados controversos para o período 1996-2000, os nossos resultados parecem confirmar que a presença estrangeira está correlacionada positiva e significativamente com o crescimento da produtividade total dos fatores, mas apenas em certas indústrias e dependendo do tamanho das empresas nacionais. Com um desfasamento de um período, encontramos externalidades positivas em pequenas empresas nas indústrias escala-intensivas, através de ligações para trás (metais básicos e outro equipamento de transporte) e através de ligações para a frente (produtos metálicos). A nossa pesquisa destaca o fato de que a natureza heterogénea das empresas da industria transformadora, a distribuição desigual de externalidades entre indústrias, e o fato das externalidades requererem algum tempo para se materializarem, requer a utilização de modelos dinâmicos com dados em painel e uma análise desagregada por grupos tecnológicos e dimensão das empresas. Visando a prossecução dos nossos objetivos de pesquisa, começamos por analisar os mecanismos de transmissão de externalidades do IDE para a produtividade das empresas nacionais, com foco nas ligações com clientes (ligações para trás) e fornecedores estrangeiros (ligações para a frente). Nós concentramo-nos em cinco países da Europa Ocidental, com vista a fornecer uma imagem mais ampla dos fatores determinantes das externalidades do IDE em países desenvolvidos, através da sua classificação, de acordo com a Teoria das Empresas Heterogéneas. Tal permite uma melhor compreensão das variáveis relevantes a incluir nos estudos empíricos que se concentram nos países desenvolvidos, e que são: a concentração, as despesas em I&D (de empresas nacionais e estrangeiras), a escala, o hiato tecnológico e a intensidade capitalística das empresas. Além disso, utilizando imputação múltipla no Stata 13.0, construímos uma base de dados que integra um número significativo de variáveis necessárias para investigar empiricamente a existência de externalidades de IDE na indústria transformadora Portuguesa. As variáveis, recolhidas das bases de dados AMADEUS, Quadros do Pessoal, EU Klems e OCDE, medem três dimensões: produtividade total dos fatores (PTF), presença estrangeira e variáveis que podem influenciar a produtividade das empresas nacionais, direta ou indiretamente, ou seja, afetando o impacto da presença estrangeira na PTF, tais como indicadores de eficiência da empresa e atividades de I&D. Os nossos dados em painel fornecem um conjunto de 15 indicadores úteis para 4.685 empresas nacionais e 360 empresas com capital estrangeiro, na industria transformadora. A análise empírica segue uma estratégia de duas etapas. Primeiro, utilizamos o estimador Wooldridge-Levinshon e Petrin, que é considerado um método robusto para estimar a PTF. Em seguida, regredimos a PTF em diversas variáveis explicativas usando o estimador SYS-GMM que é não-enviesado e consistente na presença de variáveis omitidas e variáveis explicativas endógenas. O nosso modelo dinâmico contempla desfasamentos temporais até dois períodos. A nossa análise ao nível agregado (i.e, para o conjunto dos ramos da indústria transformadora) permitiu encontrar resultados positivos e significativos, com um desfasamento temporal de um período, através de ligações para trás e de ligações para a frente. No entanto, encontramos externalidades horizontais negativas nos três períodos considerados, bem como externalidades verticais negativas, quer no período corrente, quer com um desfasamento de dois períodos. A analise empírica com desagregação por industrias (classificadas por grupos tecnológicos), e controlando a dimensão das empresas, revelou que as empresas (pequenas e grandes) das indústrias escala-intensivas, e as pequenas empresas em indústrias baseadas na ciência, beneficiam de externalidades positivas significativas. Finalmente, analisamos a relação entre os fluxos de entrada de IDE e um conjunto de indicadores de inovação (como as despesas de I&D em percentagem do PIB e o número de publicações científicas) e indicadores de capacidade de absorção (como o PIB per capita e o número de licenciados). O nosso objetivo é duplo. Primeiro avaliamos se os fluxos de entrada de IDE, nos últimos 30 anos de integração europeia, contribuíram para aumentar a produtividade. Em segundo lugar, avaliamos a eficácia das políticas de IDE para promover a inovação e a sua coordenação com medidas destinadas a promover a capacidade de absorção. Para promover a inovação, a agência de promoção de investimentos (AICEP) deverá continuar a encorajar os projetos de investimento estrangeiro nas indústrias tradicionais, porque estas parecem beneficiar mais de externalidades verticais do IDE, seguidas pelas indústrias onde Portugal possui uma vantagem comparativa. Em relação à capacidade de absorção, sugerimos novas estratégias, como a retoma do foco na produtividade e a articulação desse objetivo com a política de inovação para apoiar a investigação e a educação. Como provamos que a convergência real não é um processo automático desencadeado pela presença estrangeira, sugerimos que o processo de convergência deve ser assistido por um reforço das medidas do lado da oferta, com uma política industrial integrada, favorecendo certos ramos da indústria transformadora onde há evidências de externalidades positivas do IDE. Isto é crucial porque, Portugal é uma pequena economia aberta que a torna vulnerável a fatores externos que impedem o crescimento económico. Desde o novo milénio, o país perdeu as vantagens de atraso de que tinha vindo a beneficiar desde a década de 1950. Além disso, a crise financeira global levou a uma queda na produção industrial, acompanhada por uma redução na atração de IDE. Neste contexto, a transferência de tecnologia que pode ocorrer devido à presença estrangeira pode contribuir para o aumento da PTF e promover o crescimento económico a longo prazo, em particular, na industria transformadora, que é um setor motor de mudança tecnológica, na medida em que tem capacidade para gerar elevadas taxas de inovação e possui capacidade de arrasto para outros setores da economia. As nossas recomendações de política quanto ao tipo de projetos de IDE que devem ser captados para a industria transformadora constituem um importante contributo. Tanto quanto é do nosso conhecimento, não existem tentativas anteriores de realizar uma análise normativa da política de promoção de investimentos em Portugal, além daquelas inerentes à esfera de ação da AICEP, que não podem ser divulgadas para a comunidade académica.
Les configurations des enveloppes et des fenêtres des bâtiments nordiques doivent répondre aux exigences du bien-être photobiologique et psychologique des occupants par des relations positives efficaces avec la nature subarctique. Les enveloppes de bâtiments existant dans les climats (sub)arctiques du nord du Canada n'ont pas encore permis d'établir des connexions efficaces entre l'intérieur et l'extérieur afin d'aborder les relations positives entre les humains et la nature et le bien-être photobiologique et psychologique. Des connexions intérieures-extérieures efficaces indiquent une connectivité optimale de l'intérieur avec la nature subarctique extérieure répondant au bien-être des occupants et aux besoins énergétiques. Les relations positives des occupants avec la nature subarctique correspondent à des avantages maximums et des risques minimums des climats nordiques extrêmes pour le bien-être photobiologique-psychologique. L'objectif général de cette thèse est de favoriser les relations positives des occupants avec la nature subarctique au moyen de connexions efficaces entre l'intérieur et l'extérieur qui pourraient répondre aux facteurs de bien-être biophiliques et photobiologiques liés à la lumière du jour et aux photopériodes. Dans ce but, un modèle fondamental d'enveloppe de bâtiment adaptative à haute performance est développé comme une solution architecturale qui pourrait optimiser les connexions intérieur-extérieur et les principaux indicateurs biophiliques et photobiologiques. La thèse visait spécifiquement à articuler une approche photobiologique du design biophilique dans les climats nordiques extrêmes qui permet d'établir un cadre conceptuel et de design pour développer des enveloppes de bâtiments. La thèse visait également à identifier les lacunes des enveloppes de bâtiment existantes dans le Grand Nord du Canada ainsi que des systèmes d'enveloppes adaptatives existants en termes d'indicateurs biophysiques-photobiologiques. Les principaux éléments architecturaux des enveloppes adaptatives, notamment la configuration des fenêtres et les caractéristiques de surface des systèmes d'ombrage, en particulier la couleur et la réflectance, sont étudiés pour répondre aux besoins biophiles-photobiologiques des occupants du Nord. Les méthodologies de la thèse comprennent une revue de la littérature pour discuter des directives récentes de design biophilique, de l'éclairage photobiologique et des études de connectivité avec la nature par rapport aux climats subarctiques, en particulier la lumière du jour et les photopériodes. Des méthodes numériques et expérimentales ont été intégrées pour évaluer les performances biophiliques, d'éclairage photobiologique, thermiques et énergétiques des systèmes d'enveloppe pour une étude de cas d'un bureau open-plan dans le nord du Canada. Des méthodes expérimentales avec des modèles à l'échelle physique, des images à haute gamme dynamique et des techniques de post-traitement ont été utilisées pour capturer, calculer et visualiser les paramètres d'éclairage photobiologique. L'impact des caractéristiques des panneaux d'ombrage (SP) sur les performances d'éclairage photobiologique a été étudié par l'expérimentation d'environ 40 prototypes à l'échelle 1:50 et 23 prototypes à l'échelle 1:10 sous un ciel dégagé/couvert avec un éclairage naturel réel/artificiel. Des modèles numériques ont été développés pour évaluer les caractéristiques biophiques et thermiques/énergétiques des systèmes d'enveloppe. Les résultats de la thèse comprennent un cadre théorico-conceptuel du design photobiologique - biophilique qui identifie les relations positives des occupants avec la nature subarctique à travers les enveloppes. Des scénarios d'adaptation de l'éclairage photobiologique intégrés aux exigences thermiques ont été élaborés, qui permettent de répondre aux besoins photobiologiques horaires/saisonniers des occupants du Nord dans des bâtiments différents. Les lacunes des enveloppes à une peau typique du Nord du Canada et des enveloppes à plusieurs peaux avec des profondeurs d'espaces intermédiaires/cavités et des tailles de fenêtre différentes ont été spécifiquement évaluées en termes des indicateurs biophiliques, photobiologiques et thermiques. Un modèle fondamental d'enveloppes adaptatives à haute performance est proposé pour les bâtiments du Nord, qui comprend une taille de fenêtre optimale, un système d'ombrage dynamique coloré et isolé, et un système de buffer thermique constitué d'une peau extérieure en verre. Les performances d'éclairage photobiologique des configurations des SP, incluant la couleur, la réflectance, l'orientation, l'inclinaison, la densité, la taille, l'ouverture et la position à la fenêtre, ont été caractérisées. Les résultats des élévations expérimentales/numériques montrent que l'enveloppe adaptative proposée pourrait offrir des connexions intérieures-extérieures efficaces qui répondent aux besoins photobiologiques-psychologiques et aux exigences énergétiques des occupants du Nord. Les résultats de la thèse pourraient informer les architectes et les responsables politiques sur les possibilités que les enveloppes adaptatives et les cadres photobiologiques-biophiles offrent pour améliorer le bienêtre du public et l'efficacité énergétique dans les climats nordiques. Les principaux enjeux des futurs développements des bâtiments biophiliques adaptatifs dans les climats nordiques ont également été soulignés, notamment en matière d'analyses du cycle de vie et d'études socioculturelles. ; Sub-Arctic building envelope configurations must address occupants' photobiological-psychological wellbeing through positive relationships with the outdoor sub-Arctic nature. Existing building envelopes in Northern Canada's (sub-)Arctic climates have not, yet, enabled efficient indoor-outdoor connections to address positive human-nature relationships and photobiological-psychological wellbeing. Efficient indoor-outdoor connections indicate optimum connectivity of indoors with Northern climates in terms of occupants' wellbeing and energy factors. Positive occupants' relationships with the sub-Arctic nature refer to maximum benefits and minimum risks of the extreme cold weather and strong photoperiod of Northern climates for photo-biological and psychological wellbeing. The general objective of this dissertation is to foster positive occupants' relationships with sub-Arctic nature by enabling efficient indoor-outdoor connections which could respond to biophilic and photobiological wellbeing factors related to daylighting and photoperiods. To this end, a fundamental model of adaptive high-performance building envelopes is developed as an architectural solution which could optimize indoor-outdoor connections and main biophilic and photobiological indicators. The dissertation specifically aimed at articulating a photobiological approach to biophilic design in extreme Northern climates which enables establishing a conceptual and design framework to develop building envelopes. The thesis also focused on identifying the shortcomings of existing Canadian Northern building envelopes as well as existing adaptive envelope systems in terms of biophilicphotobiological indicators. Main architectural elements of adaptive envelopes including window configuration and surface characteristics of shading systems, in particular color and reflectance, are explored to respond to Northern occupants' biophilic-photobiological needs. The thesis methodologies include a scoping literature review to critically discuss recent biophilic design guidelines, photobiological lighting, and nature connectedness/relatedness studies in relation to sub-Arctic climates, especially daylighting and photoperiods. Numerical and experimental methods were integrated to evaluate biophilic, photobiological lighting, thermal and energy performance of envelope systems for a case study of an open-plan office in Northern Canada. Experimental methods with physical scale models, high dynamic range imagery and post-processing techniques were employed to capture, compute, and visualize photobiological lighting parameters. Impacts of shading panels' (SPs) characteristics on photobiological lighting performance were explored by experimenting approximately 40 1:50-scale prototypes and 23 1:10-scale prototypes under clear/overcast skies with actual/artificial daylighting. Numerical models were developed to evaluate biophilic and thermal/energy performance of envelope systems. Dissertation outcomes include a theoretical-conceptual framework of photobiological-biophilic design which characterizes positive occupants' relationships with the sub-Arctic nature through envelopes. Photobiological lighting adaptation scenarios integrated with thermal requirements were developed which could address hourly/seasonal photobiological needs of Northern occupants in different buildings. Deficiencies of typical single-skin envelopes in Northern Canada and multi-skin envelopes with different depths of intermediate spaces/cavities and window sizes were specifically evaluated in terms of biophilic, photobiological lighting and thermal indicators. A fundamental model of adaptive high-performance envelopes is proposed for Northern buildings which includes an optimum window size, a dynamic-colored-insulated shading system, and a thermal buffer system made of a glazing exterior skin. Photobiological lighting performance of SPs' configurations, including color, reflectance, orientation, inclination, density, size, openness, and position at the window, were characterized. Results of experimental-numerical elevations reveal that the proposed adaptive envelope could offer efficient indoor-outdoor connections which respond to Northern occupants' photobiological-psychological needs and energy requirements. Dissertation outcomes could enlighten architects and policymakers about potentials of adaptive envelopes and integrative photobiological-biophilic frameworks to improve public wellbeing and energy efficiency in Northern climates. Major issues for future developments of adaptive biophilic buildings in Northern climates were also outlined including life cycle assessments and sociocultural studies.
The article has been devoted to identifying and summarizing the main trends of architecture of the XXI century. Social development as well as scientific and technological progress form conditions for further development of architecture and the search for new materials and new design methods. Owing to the Industrial Revolution, the invention of construction technologies and other innovative things, a new structural scheme of buildings appeared at the beginning of the twentieth century. It was based on the enclosing structure of the building, which, unlike the architecture that existed before the twentieth century, no longer took on the load of floors – namely, it was not load-bearing. The main type and method of forming the appearance of the building was the curtain facade, which received a wide variety of expressions. This includes, both during the twentieth century and today, a wide range of applications in enclosing structures of more and more new synthetic materials, the display of various textures, textures, compositional techniques, color solutions, perforated surfaces etc. The materials and structures themselves can be very different: from translucent structures to sandwich-panels. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and throughout the twentieth century, the exploitation of Earth's Resources has led to devastating consequences and environmental disasters. This is reflected even in the economic and political plans of states. Therefore, since the middle of the twentieth century, the leading European countries have taken a course towards sustainable development. And, the XXI century is focused on improving the environment and energy saving. Such changes affect the formation of new techniques in architecture. The task of sustainable development forces the new forms as well as techniques and materials that will ensure the fulfillment of these requirements to be looked for. Such actions lead to the improvement of the curtain facade and saturation of its functional component. This is the manifestation of new trends and directions. The economic factor can also be considered as an influential factor in the emergence of innovative techniques. The advertising and marketing industry pushes architects in their creative quest to design iconic, unusual buildings with dynamic know-how or media technologies. They become the hallmark of urban space. We are talking about Media Architecture and kinetics. The present time is an era of high Information Technologies and their significant influence on the formation of the face of modern architecture. Nowadays, with the help of complex computer calculations, a parametric architecture of complex geometric shapes has appeared and the new design methods are being developed. With the help of virtual reality, one can both demonstrate objects, and directly design and edit the design of objects down to the smallest details. Design has been increasingly capturing the architecture. 3-D construction methods can build architecture of any shape. This leads to the formation of objects that do not depend on the location. Every year on the Internet the number of projects of space architecture – conceptual solutions for the colonization of Mars or the Moon increases. This is also part of the trend of replacing architecture with design. ; Стаття присвячена виявленню та узагальненню головних тенденцій пластичної мови архітектури ХХІ ст. Загальносуспільний розвиток та науково-технічний прогрес формує умови для подальшого розвитку архітектури, пошуку нових матеріалів та нових способів проектування. Завдяки промисловій революції та розвитку технологій будівництва на початку ХХ століття з'явилась нова несуча конструктивна схема будівель. ЇЇ основою є металевий або залізобетонний каркас пов'язаний з перекриттями. Таким чином огороджувальна конструкція будівлі, стає вільною від навантажень будівлі. Це суттєво відрізняє пластичну мову сучасної архітектури від тієї, що булла до ХХ століття. Основним типом та прийомом формування огороджувальної конструкції будівлі став навісний фасад, що отримав велике різноманіття типів протягом ХХ століття. І на сьогодні зростає кількість нових прийомів, технологій, матеріалів, які застосовуються в проектуванні фасадів. Вони стосуються як світлопрозорих конструкцій, які повинні забезпечити світло і клімат у будівлі, так і елементів, які формують непрозорі ділянки для забезпечення вимог мікроклімату, захисту від шуму і т.д. З початком Промислової революції та протягом ХХ століття використання земних ресурсів, призводить до нищівних наслідків та екологічних катастроф. Тому ще з середини ХХ століття провідні країни Європи взяли курс на сталий розвиток. ХХІ століття зорієнтовано на питанні покращення екології та енергозбереження. Ці зрушення не можуть не вплинути на формування нових прийомів в архітектурі. Завдання сталого розвитку змушують шукати нові форми, прийоми та матеріали, що забезпечать виконання цих вимог. Такі дії призводять до вдосконалення навісного фасаду, наповнення його функціональною складовою. Це є прояв нових тенденцій та напрямів. Також впливовим фактором появи інноваційних прийомів можна вважати економіку. Індустрія реклами, маркетингу підштовхує архітекторів до творчих пошуків проектування знакових, незвичних будівель, з динамічними ноу-хау чи медіа-технологіями. Вони стають візитівкою міського простору. Мова йде про медіа та кінетичну архітектуру. Сьогодення – це доба високих інформаційних технологій і вони неабияк впливають на формування обличчя сучасної архітектури. Сьогодні за допомогою комп'ютерних розрахунків з'явилась параметрична архітектура складних геометричних форм. Розвиваються нові методи проектування. За допомогою віртуальної реальності можна як демонструвати об'єкти, так і безпосередньо проектувати та редагувати. Дизайн все більше поглинає архітектуру. Методи 3-D будівництва мають змогу зводити архітектуру будь-яких форм. Це призводить до формування об'єктів, що не залежать від місця розташування. З кожним роком мережа інтернет насичується все більшою кількістю проєктів космічної архітектури – концептуальних рішень колонізації Марсу або Місяця. Це також входить в тенденцію заміщення архітектури дизайном.
