International supply chains require the coordination of numerous activities across multiple countries and firms. This paper develops a theoretical model of supply chains in which the measure of tasks completed within a firm is determined by parameters that define transaction costs and the cost of coordinating more activities within the firm. The structural parameters that govern these costs explain variation in supply chain length as well as cross-country variation in gross-output-to-value-added ratios. The structural parameters are linked to comparative advantage along and across supply chains. The paper provides an analytical treatment of trade and welfare responses to trade cost change in a simple two-country model. To explore the models implications in a richer setting, the model is calibrated to match key observables in East Asia, and the calibrated model is used to evaluate implications of changes in model parameters for trade, welfare, the length of supply chains, and countries relative position within them.
This paper uses a combination of survey questions to instructors and data collected from course syllabi and examinations to examine how the subject of development economics is taught at the undergraduate and masters levels in developing countries, and benchmark this against undergraduate classes in the United States. The study finds that there is considerable heterogeneity in what is considered development economics: there is a narrow core of only a small set of topics such as growth theory, poverty and inequality, human capital, and institutions taught in at least half the classes, with substantial variation in other topics covered. In developing countries, development economics is taught largely as a theoretical subject coupled with case studies, with few courses emphasizing data or empirical methods and findings. This approach contrasts with the approach taken in leading U.S. economics departments and with the evolution of development economics research. The analysis finds that country income per capita, the role of the state in the economy, the education level in the country, and the involvement of the instructor in research are associated with how close a course is to the frontier. The results suggest there are important gaps in how development economics is taught.
Innovation is the main driver of long-term economic growth. The accumulation of capital, whether in the form of physical assets such as plants and equipment, or through better human capital, cannot indefinitely sustain growth unless new products, services, processes, and/or business models are developed and implemented. This paper describes the actors involved and the types of funding available at different stages of the innovation process, the rationales for public intervention, and the advantages and disadvantages of some of the most commonly used policy instruments. Innovation activities are more difficult to finance than other types of investment for several reasons. Innovation produces an intangible asset that does not typically constitute accepted collateral to obtain external funding. Also, the technological and market uncertainty of innovation activities makes the returns to investment highly uncertain, creating significant problems for the standard risk adjustment methods used by providers of funds. This paper uses a streamlined version of an innovation process with three stages to categorize the different sources of finance available; in reality, considerable crossover takes places among instruments because innovation processes are not discrete.
An efficient capital market hypothesis says that markets that efficiently react quickly to relevant information. In an efficient market, the market will quickly react to new information coming in so that a new equilibrium price will be reached quickly. In practice in the capital market phenomena appear that show deviations that are contrary to the concept of efficient capital markets (market anomaly). The pupose of this research to investors because Investors need information to assess the risks involved in their investments and to estimate returns on the investment. With the information obtained, investors can determine the position of selling, buying or holding a stock. These anomalies including the January Effect, Day of The Week Effect and Size Effect.The data used in this study are secondary data from companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the study period from January 2013 to December 2017. The samples used in this study were 55 issuers with purposive sampling method. The statistical analysis used in this study is by multiple regression analysis with dummy variables for January effects and Day of The Week effect while different T tests for firm size effects.The results of hypothesis testing with multiple linear regression analysis with Independent variables, namely January Efeect, Day Of The Week Effect, and Size Effect and Dependent variables namely Stock Return. Based on the results of multiple linear regression test analysis using dummy variables showing that the January Effect of each variable has a significant influence on Stock return and on the day of the week effect on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday also has a significant effect on stock returns. While the size effet based on the results of the independent t-test on the size effect variable of a company has a significant effect (<0.05) which means that the size of a company has an impact on a company's stock return, where the company is measured based on total asset. 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PART I: Theory And Concepts -- 1. Background: Small Arms and Conflicts in Africa – A Fatal Combination – Usman A. Tar -- 2. The Theoretical Parameters of the Proliferation and Regulation of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Africa – Usman A. Tar and Sunday Adejoh -- 3. The Political Economy of Small Arms and Light Weapons Proliferations in Africa – Moses E. U. Tedheke -- 4. (En)Gendering the Small Arms Discourse: Women and the Management of Violent Conflicts in Africa - Caroline Obiageli and Agnes Okorie -- PART II: Topographies And Contexts -- 5. The Context of Small Arms Proliferation in Africa: State Fragility and Management of Armed Violence – Chris M. A. Kwaja -- 6. Mapping of Conflicts and Small Arms and Light Weapons Proliferations in Africa - Taiye Oluwafemi Adewuyi and Mwanret Gideon Daful -- 7. External Influence, Failed States, Ungoverned Spaces and Small Arms Proliferation in Africa – Muhammad Dan Suleiman, Hakeem Onapajo, and Ahmed Badawi Mustapha -- 8. Borderland Security and the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons Proliferations in Africa – Anthony Israel Rufus -- 9. Urban Dynamics and the Challenge of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Africa – Enoch Oyedele -- 10. Forests, Ungoverned Spaces and the Challenge of Small Arms and Light Weapons Proliferation in Africa – Usman A Tar and Yusuf Ibrahim Safana -- 11. "Resource Curse", Resource Wars and the Proliferation of Small Arms in Africa –Otoabasi Akpan and Ubong Essien Umoh -- 12. Armed Conflicts, SALWs Proliferation and Underdevelopment in Africa Aliyu Mukhtar Katsina, Ahmed Mubarak Mashi and Mohammed Abdullahi -- 13. Civil Wars, Complex Emergencies and the Proliferation of Small Arms in Africa – Hussaini Jibrin and Umar Aminu Yandaki -- 14. Poverty, Greed and SALWs Proliferation in Africa – Ubong Essien Umoh and Otoabasi Akpan -- 15. Personality, Arms and Crime: The Psychological Dynamics of SALWs Proliferation in Africa – Philemon A. Agashua, Markus D. Shekwolo & Lawrence L. Orkuugh -- 16. Socialization, "Culture of Violence" and Challenges of Small Arms – Aminu Umar and Nachana'a Alahira David -- 17. Youth Bulge and Small Arms Proliferation in Africa: Guns, Generations and Violent Conflicts – John Tor Tsuwa -- 18. Gendered Construction of Conflict and Small Arms Proliferation in Africa – Omotola Adeyoju Ilesanmi -- 19. Guns, Arms Trade and Transnational Crime in Africa – Adewunmi J. Falode -- PART III: Institutional Framework And Dynamics -- 20. Military, Arms Monopoly and Proliferation of Small Arms in Africa - Al Chukwumah Okoli -- 21. Legislation, Institution-Building and the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Africa –Shuaibu A. Danwanka -- 22. Police and the Control of Firearms in Africa –Dawud Mohammed Dawud and Tukur Abdulkadir -- 23. Civil Society and Arms Control in Africa – Auwal Abdulmalik and Moses T. Aluaigba -- 24. Traditional Institutions and Firearms in Africa: the Politics and Historiography of Small Arms and Conflict Management – Sanusi Muhammad Lawal and Bem Japhet Audu -- 25. Customs, Contrabands and Arms Control in Africa – Mubarak Ahmed Mashi and Habu Mohammed -- 26. Transport Networks and the Proliferation of Small Arms in Africa –Terzungwe Nyor -- 27. Multinational Corporations, Trafficking of Small Arms and Intractable Conflicts in Africa – Emmanuel Ukhami and Lassana Doumbia -- 28. Private Security Companies and the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Africa – Jonathan Sule Maiangwa and Usman A. Tar -- 29. Economics of Armed Violence: Supply and Demand Sides of Small Arms and Light Weapons in Africa – Suleiman Sa'ad and Blessing Idakwoji -- 30. Information Communication Technology, Cyber-Security and Small Arms in Africa – Francisca Nonyelum Oguweleka -- PART IV: National Experiences -- 31. Central African Republic: The Contagion of Identity-linked Sectarian Violence, Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs) and Small Arms Proliferation – Wendy Isaacs-Martin -- 32. Egypt: Arab Spring, Regime Crisis and the Proliferation of Small Arms –Nanven Audu Gambo -- 33. Ethiopia: Political Volatility and Small Arms Proliferation – Roy Love -- 34. Libya: The Proliferation of Small Arms Post-Ghaddafi - Dauda Abubakar and Sharkdam Wapmuk -- 35. Mali: Ecology of Terrorism and Small Arms Proliferation – Jude Cocodia.-36. Nigeria: Militancy, Insurgency and the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons –Freedom Chukwudi Onuoha, Joachim Chukwuma Okafor, and Osinimu Osebeba Femi-Adedayo -- 37. Niger Republic: Small Arms and Asymmetric Warfare in a Volatile Neighbourhood – David Omeiza Moveh -- 38. South Africa: Xenophobia, Crime and Small Arms Proliferation – Dorcas Oyebisi Ettang -- 39. Sierra Leone: Civil War, Democratic Collapse and Small Arms Proliferation – Sharkdam Wapmuk -- 40. Somalia: State Collapse and the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons – Mala Mustapha and Haruna Yerima -- 41. Uganda: Protracted Conflict, Insurgency and the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons – Andrew David Omona and Samuel Baba Ayegba -- PART V: Regional Perspectives -- 42. West Africa: Regional Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons Proliferation in West Africa - Oluwafisan Babatunde Bankale and Chukwuzitara Juliet Uchegbu -- 43. Lake Chad Basin: Transnational Insurgency, Counter-Insurgency and the Proliferation of Small Arms - Bashir Bala and Usman A. Tar -- 44. The Manor River Region: Volatility and the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons – Uchenna Simeon -- 45. Southern Africa: Regional Dynamics and the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons – Pamela Machakanja and Chupicai Shollah Manuel.
La finalidad de este trabajo es observar y distinguir en un marco de dificultades para el acceso a la información, las mayores o menores aproximaciones que se presentan entre las normativas vigentes sobre el trabajo rural y las circunstancias que condicionan para que las mismas se cumplan o no, con las implicancias que ello puede tener sobre los trabajadores rurales en la horticultura platense. Las relaciones laborales en la actividad agropecuaria están presentes de manera permanente y en virtud de tratarse de relaciones asimétricas, la intervención o regulación de los vínculos que se establecen entre empleado y empleador es imprescindible. De esta manera el rol que juega el Estado y las políticas que se implementen determina la manera en que estas relaciones se den. Para ello, es parte constitutiva el marco normativo que acompaña las medidas de gobierno. Es indisoluble la relación entre los actores (empleador/empleado) que comprende la actividad agropecuaria, las políticas públicas y la normativa que regula esos vínculos. De tal manera, se estima conveniente relevar someramente cómo se fueron gestando en el devenir histórico estas cuestiones para comprender los procesos actuales en materia laboral en el sector agrario. La construcción socionormativa de parte del estado ha variado, pero se puede adelantar que la regulación y control para esta actividad es compleja, por las diversas producciones que se realizan y los territorios diversos que dificultan por lo menos el contralor necesario por parte del estado. El marco teórico que propone Zurbriggen (2006) para el estudio de las políticas públicas, se tomará como guía para la búsqueda de explicaciones, junto a aportes de Martínez Nogueira (1995). La investigación se realizó, tomando como soporte a la corriente cualitativa (secuencia de procesos), comprendiendo un trabajo de campo en el que se entrevistaron 10 agentes que cumplen acciones en el territorio hortícola platense. La temática del trabajo hortícola platense, está caracterizada por una profunda informalidad, destacando, que esta característica se sostiene a lo largo de toda la cadena hortícola. Las relaciones-acuerdos entre trabajadores y empleadores son diversas y en la mayoría de los casos difusas en lo que refiere a obligaciones y derechos delimitados por los mencionados acuerdos. Resulta necesario dar mejor difusión a los derechos establecidos en el Estatuto del Peón Rural; así como también desarrollar mecanismos que permitan la aplicación de la misma, considerando la heterogeneidad de establecimientos que conforman la horticultura platense. ; The purpose of this work is to observe and distinguish in a framework of difficulties for access to information, the greater or lesser approximations that are presented between the regulations in force on rural work and the circumstances that condition them so that they are met or not, with the implications that this may have on rural workers in the platense horticulture. The labor relations in the agricultural activity are present permanently and by virtue of being asymmetric relations, the intervention or regulation of the links established between employee and employer is essential. In this way, the role played by the State and the policies that are implemented determine the manner in which these relationships occur. For this, the regulatory framework that accompanies the government measures is constitutive. The relationship between the actors (employer / employee) that includes agricultural activity, public policies and the regulations that regulate these links is inseparable. In this way, it is considered convenient to summarize briefly how these issues were gestating in the historical evolution to understand the current labor processes in the agrarian sector. The socionormativa construction of part of the state has varied, but it can be anticipated that the regulation and control for this activity is complex, for the diverse productions that are made and the diverse territories that hinder at least the necessary control by the state. The theoretical framework proposed by Zurbriggen (2006) for the study of public policies will be taken as a guide for the search for explanations, together with contributions by Martínez Nogueira (1995). The research was carried out, taking as support the qualitative stream (sequence of processes), comprising fieldworks in which 10 agents were interviewed who carry out actions in the platense horticultural territory. The thematic of the platense horticultural work, is characterized by a deep informality, emphasizing, that this characteristic is sustained along all the horticultural chain. The relationships-agreements between workers and employers are diverse and in most cases diffuse in what refers to obligations and rights defined by the aforementioned agreements. It is necessary to give better diffusion to the rights established in the Statute of the Rural Pawn; as well as develop mechanisms that allow the application of the same, considering the heterogeneity of establishments that make up the platense horticulture. ; Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales
Zielsetzung dieser Arbeit ist die Beschreibung und Erklärung des Wandels sowie die Identifizierung von Agglomerationsvorteilen von Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in industriellen Clustern eines Schwellenlandes. CSR wird verstanden als freiwillige Integration von sozialen Themen in die Unternehmenstätigkeit und in die Interaktionen mit Stakeholdern. Im Fokus der Analyse sind Institutionen und Rahmenbedingungen sowie deren Einfluss auf Akteure, Aktionen, Governance und Ergebnisse von CSR. Die Arbeit basiert auf einer Verbindung der Theorien von CSR, Clustern, globalen Wertschöpfungsketten und Produktionsnetzwerken mit dem Analyserahmen des "Institutional Analysis and Development Framework" nach OSTROM. Dieser Rahmen ermöglicht in einem koherenten Modell die Deskription und Analyse von sozialen, politischen und wirtschaftlichen Institutionen und CSR in einem industriellen Cluster. Anhand einer empirischen Fallstudie zum Schuhproduktionscluster in Jinjiang, Provinz Fujian, VR China, werden die Determinanten und Bedingungen von CSR im Cluster untersucht. Das wirtschaftliche Wachstum in China basiert auf der regionalen Konzentration der Produktion mit einer Branchenspezialisierung in den Küstenprovinzen. Die sozialen Bedingungen der Produktionsprozesse in den klein- und mittelgroßen Unternehmen sind gekennzeichnet durch mangelhafte Arbeits- und Lebensbedingungen sowie geringe Entlohnung. Die Analyse stützt sich auf die Auswertung von quantitativen und qualitativen Erhebungen. Ausgehend von einem niedrigen Niveau lassen sich empirisch in einigen Indikatoren Tendenzen einer voneinander unabhängigen wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Aufwertung sowie einer Stakeholderorientierung der klein- und mittelgroßen Unternehmen im Cluster nachweisen. Die Produzenten reagieren auf den lokalen Druck der Arbeiter und nicht auf globale Anforderungen. Durch Veränderungen des institutionellen Arrangements, der Rahmenbedingungen auf dem lokalen Arbeitsmarkt und der Kommunikationsökologie werden die Arbeiter zum Treiber des Wandels von CSR. Bisherige Macht- und Informationsasymmetrien verändern sich zugunsten der Arbeiter. Es bilden sich neue informelle institutionelle Arrangements und vielfältige Formen des Lernens von CSR endogen im Untersuchungsraum. Die KMU lassen sich in Reaktion und Verhalten in Typen klassifizieren. Dieser Heterogenität der KMU steht eine homogene Kodifizierung der Anforderungen zu CSR gegenüber. Im Ergebnis ergibt sich ein Prototyp des Wandels von CSR in einem industriellen Cluster Die Governance von CSR verlagert sich von der globalen auf die lokale sowie von der formellen auf die informelle Ebene. Die Institutionensets des chinesischen Staates und der globalen Wertschöpfungskette beschränken sich auf die Einhaltung eines Mindestniveaus sozialer Bedingungen und haben aufgrund unzureichender Sanktionen und Legitimität nur geringe Geltung. Unternehmerische und institutionelle Macht wird nur zur Erreichung ökonomischer Ziele eingesetzt. 4 Die Governance der Wertschöpfungskette wird von dem Prinzipal Führungsfirmen auf den Agenten lokale Händler übertragen. Diese fungieren als zentrale Schnittstelle zwischen Cluster und Absatzmärkten und werden in der Konzeption der gebundenen Wertschöpfungskette bisher kaum thematisiert. Insofern kann die Konzeption der Koordinationsform der gebundenen Wertschöpfungskette verfeinert werden. Die Vorteile der Clusterung für CSR liegen in der kollektiven Effizienz, in der Netzwerkbildung der Arbeitnehmer und dem Lernen von CSR im Beziehungsgeflecht des Clusters. Eine Förderung des CSR-Prozesses im lokalen Raum könnte in der Praxis in diesen Clustervorteilen ansetzen. Der Fokus würde auf der exekutive Governance und nicht auf der herkömmlichen judikativen Governance von CSR durch Kontrollsysteme aus der globalen Wertschoepfungskette liegen. Der "bottom-up"-Prozess im lokalen Raum würde dadurch gestärkt. ; The aim of this PhD is to describe and to explain of the change and the identification of clustering advantages of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in industrial clusters in emerging countries. CSR means a voluntary integration of social issues in business activities and the interactions with stakeholders. This research focuses on institutions and prevailling conditions and their impact on players, actions, governance and outcomes of CSR. This PhD is based on theoretical concepts of CSR, clustering, global value chains and production networks and the link with the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework. This framework enables to analyse the social, political and economic institutions in a coherent model in industrial cluster. On the basis of an empirical case study of the footwear cluster in Jinjiang, Fujian Province, PR China, the determinants and conditions of CSR in the cluster are scrutinized. The economic growth in China is based on a regional concentration of specialised production in the coastal provinces. The social conditions of the processes in small and medium sized enterprises in the cluster are dominated by poor working and living conditions and low wages. The research is based on the analysis of quantitative and qualitative surveys. Based on a low level in some indicators there is a trend of independent economic and social upgrading and a stakeholder-orientation of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the cluster. The manufacturers are reacting to local pressure of the workers and not to global 5 requirements. Through changes of institutional arrangements, in the environment of the local labor market and a new ecology of communication the workers are becoming the drivers of the change of CSR. Old asymmetric power and information constellations are changing in favor of the workers. New informal institutional arrangements and a diversity of learning of CSR are formed endogenous in the cluster. The manufacturers are classified according to their reaction and action in types. These heterogeneities are confronted with a homogeneous codification of CSR-requirements. As a result there is a prototype of the change of CSR in industrial clusters. The governance of CSR is shifting from a global to a local and from a formal to an informal level. The institutional sets of the state and of the value chain are limited to commitments of minimum standards of social conditions and have little validity because of insufficient sanctions and legitimacy. Business and institutional power is only used to achieve economic goals. The governance of the value chain is delegated from the principal leadfirm to the agent local trader. These traders are a chain intersections between clusters and markets and are not conceptualised in the conventional concept of captive value chains. The advantages of clustering for CSR are: collective efficiency, network building amongst the workers and knowledge transfer of CSR across networks of relationship in the cluster. A support of the CSR-process could start with these advantages. The focus will be on the executive governance and not the judicative governance. The bottom-up-process would be strengthened.
This book builds on the lessons from public institutions and programs to support innovation, both successful and failed, from Europe and Central Asia (ECA) as well as China, Finland, Israel, and the United States. Field visits to these countries were hosted by the innovation and scientific agencies of the respective governments, strengthening the international experiences presented here. This book is a culmination of ten years of analytic and operational work led by the private and financial sector development department and the chief economist's office of the ECA region of the World Bank. Several regional reports and country policy notes exploring these issues have been published over the years. The book also reflects the lively discussion in the ongoing series of flagship events to promote knowledge based economies in the region. The most recent knowledge economy forum was held in Berlin in 2010, hosted by the fraunhofer center for Central and Eastern Europe. The book identifies policies that have an adverse affect on innovation. It also identifies policy gaps that, if filled, could have a catalytic effect on private sector innovation.
Bleak short-term economic outlook raises the risk that social and environmental achievements may not be sustained. The changed economic circumstances have exposed shortcomings in Brazil's development model, epitomized by the struggle to achieve a sustainable fiscal policy. Against this background, some Brazilians are now asking whether the gains of the past decade might have been an illusion, created by the commodity boom, but unsustainable in today's less forgiving international environment. Brazil thus finds itself at an important juncture and, to a certain extent, the policy course set today will determine whether the country can sustain the gains of the past and return to a path of solid, inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth. This Systematic Country Diagnostic offers a contribution to the debate about Brazil's future development.
This paper offers a personal review of the current state of knowledge on monetary policy. In a nutshell, what Friedman knew-have survived, but that modern monetary policy departs in some important ways from older principles? The older wisdom that monetary policy determines inflation in the long run but can have systematic shorter run effects has survived a major challenge. Most of the new ideas stem from the recognition of the crucial role of expectations. In today's world, this observation lies behind the spectacular trend toward ever greater central bank transparency. Then it is more than likely that ideas will change in the wake of the global financial crisis. Early debates challenge the old wisdom that central banks ought to be mainly concerned with price stability. In particular, financial stability has always been part of a central bank's mission, but it has occupied limited space in theoretical and empirical studies.
This housing policy in developing countries, conjectures and refutations article discusses housing policy in developing economies. It examines recent research findings in light of earlier arguments as to the benefits of more market-oriented approaches. It also looks at whether the recommendations of earlier work have been refuted or developed in subsequent analyses and policy measures. In particular, it reviews the empirical analysis of the effects of policy on housing supply, the richer understanding of the effects that land market regulations have on housing affordability and the functioning of urban areas, and the alleged mysterious effects that researchers claim effective property rights have on housing policy and on development more generally. It also examines the effects of the increased emphasis on community participation, showing how it helps to more fully reconcile the incentives faced by beneficiaries of housing policy and donors. Finally, it examines recent literature on the welfare effects of rent control. The article shows that some of the conjectures as to the likely benefits of more market-based policy have been refuted, but large welfare gains for poor people can still be realized by adapting this approach. Furthermore, this approach appears to be gaining ground as the consensus approach to effective housing policy.
Problem statement: general view and its connection with important scientific or practical tasks. Achieving the goals and realizing the interests of states and transnational corporations and even some specific actors on the world stage is gaining new opportunities through the intensive development of high technology, innovation, information and global cyberspace. Open military confrontation and other types of conflicts in these conditions are transformed into hybrid forms of destructive actions, in which the component of cognitive influences aimed at the human mind, worldview, mentality, which are an integral part of the cognitive sphere of society, grows. Such influences, at the present stage of development of society, are often aimed at forming distrust, changing views and value systems, weakening social cohesion and distorted perception of national interests and values, etc., so their study and counteraction is extremely relevant. Analysis of recent publications in sphere of research and identification of previously unresolved parts of the general problem. Issues related to the study of the cognitive sphere and its components, various cognitive influences on the audience in the process of communication, cognitive manipulation, especially in the field of discourses, and their consequences, were considered in the works of many domestic and foreign researchers, namely: M. Eisenko, L. Apostel, M. Bakhtin, D. Bolinger, P. Brown, E. Bienvenu, R. Blakar, X. Weinrich, A. Vezhbytska, V. Vinokur, Y. Habermas, J. Gintikki, G. Grice, S. Green, T. van Dyck, V. Demyankov, V. Zabotkin, A. Zvirintsev, S. Kara-Murza, E. Koit, O. Kubryakova, R. Lakoff, J. Lakoff, J. Lich, Y. Lotman , S. Levinson, D. Marr, J. Allwood, J. Austin, M. Popper, G. Pocheptsov, O. Rosenstock-Hussey, J. Searle, W. Stewart, S. Tulmin, L. Yakubinsky. At the same time, the study of multilevel, interconnected destructive cognitive effects in cyberspace and through cyberspace in hybrid conflicts and the analysis of practical experience of their coping and consequences, especially with regard to deep systemic aspects and synergies in modern publications are insufficiently addressed. The aim of the article is to study the threats and features of cognitive influences on society in cyberspace and respond to them to reduce the risks of their consequences. Main results. Modern hybrid warfare is a war with a combination of fundamentally different types and methods of its conduct, which are used in a coordinated manner to achieve its goals. It is a high-tech conflict, a continuation of the policy of states (coalitions, political groups, transnational corporations, etc.) in order to impose their will on opponents through complex, adaptive, asymmetric and synchronized influences on them in multidimensional space and various spheres with a combination of conventional and unconventional components, ensuring multiplicity and synergy of results and a high level of uncertainty for opponents regarding the ultimate goals and ways to achieve them. Its features are permanent, variable, in wide ranges, intensity, focus on systemic destabilization and changes that are useful to achieve the interests of the beneficiary, in all spheres of life and activity of the state that is the object of aggression. Hybrid actions, in addition to the purely force component, include complex destructive cognitive, informational, informational-psychological, propaganda and disinformation influences on certain target groups and society as a whole, with cyberattacks on information resources, infrastructure, economic processes and democratic institutions. At the same time, cognitive influences play a significant role in trying to manage communication, transform the beliefs of target audiences to the right (desired) and control their behavior. Issues of destructive cognitive actions are directly related to the processes of emission, processing, interpretation, transformation and internalization of knowledge in managed communication from strategic to tactical levels, from general to targeted impacts on society as a whole and its individual components and specific targets. audiences with integrated use of linguistic, figurative, hidden media effects, mental and other influences at different levels of cybersocial interaction, which, in modern conditions, is increasingly carried out in cyberspace and / or through cyberspace. The theoretical and applied results presented in the article can be used to ensure timely detection of dangers and threats of destructive cognitive influences on society in cyberspace and through cyberspace, risk assessment of their implementation and taking measures to counter and neutralize them. Conclusions. Cognitive influences have become an integral part of hybrid conflicts, both interstate and domestic, and between any geopolitical and regional actors, corporations, and organizations. The cognitive component has an exceptional role in the set of factors that form and cause conflict, affect its course and results, intensity and consequences. Therefore, modern, and especially conflicts of the future, are and will be conducted for the cognitive sphere of society (society, social groups, individuals), taking control and management of cognitive space, which includes perception, awareness, beliefs, understanding and values, intellectual environment of both individuals and social groups and society as a whole, in which, in fact, is their decision-making. Therefore, the main result of successful destructive cognitive influences is a change in the model of the world and its perception in man, social groups and society as a whole, which provides the opportunity to take control and external management on emotional, moral, cultural, ideological and mental levels with the formation stereotypes for the perception of reality through their prism. Of particular importance are the imposition and promotion of erroneous scientific, social, economic, state, military theories, paradigms, concepts, strategies, narratives, which are most effectively promoted and implemented through educational and scientific institutions, NGOs, electronic, social networks and the blogosphere. To this end, all opportunities for strategic communication are used, informational, psychological, cyber and other measures (actions, operations, etc.) are taken, which are aimed at both the direct participants in the conflict and the population of the participating countries, the international community. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis of the threats of such influences, their timely detection and deploy an effective system to counter them and neutralize them, because it becomes one of the key components of national security for today and in the future. Key words: cognitive influences; cyberspace; cybersecurity; destructive cyber influences; information security. ; У статті розглядаються теоретико-прикладні аспекти, особливості, небезпеки, загрози і ризики когнітивних впливів на соціум у кіберпросторі і через кіберпростір та реагування на них. Доведено, що боротьба за отримання контролю над певними цільовими групами в сучасних умовах передбачає насамперед можливість управління їхньою когнітивною сферою з використанням методів ментального, образного, мовного тощо впливів на неї. Це здійснюється в різноманітних інфокомунікаційних системах відповідно до ситуацій, переважно через соціальні мережі, блогосферу, художню, науково-популярну і наукову літературу та відповідні ресурси в інтернеті, розважальну і професійно-орієнтовану аудіо- і відеопродукцію, рекламу, ЗМІ, а також шляхом уведення змін, які сприяють цьому, в наукові теорії, навчальні програми тощо. Основна мета – навмисний вплив на відповідні цільові аудиторії для трансформації їх поглядів, переконань, світогляду, і самого сприйняття дійсності відповідно до інтересів і потреб сторони, яка справляє вплив. Це завжди багатоплановий, багатовекторний, комплексний, системний та керований процес загальної спрямованості або цільові, спрямовані на суспільство в цілому або на цільові групи, конкретних індивідів (ключових акторів), який передбачає справляння за єдиним замислом, планом, місцем і часом когнітивних, інформаційних, інформаційно-психологічних, кібер-впливів тощо. У сучасних умовах значна кількість сфер людської життєдіяльності перенеслася до кіберпростору та здійснюється через кіберпростір. При цьому майже єдиним джерелом знань та інформації для більшості людей поступово стають різноманітні інформаційні та освітні портали й електронні ресурси, які формуються в кіберпросторі. Це значно впливає на формування та зміну світогляду і ментальності соціуму. Саме через глобальну мережу «Інтернет» молодь сприймає найбільше неперевіреної, часто негативної, небажаної і навіть небезпечної інформації. Відсутність захисту соціуму від когнітивних загроз, які реалізуються в кіберпросторі і через кіберпростір, стає серйозним фактором ризику, деякі аспекти зменшення якого розглядаються в цій роботі. Ключові слова: когнітивні впливи; кіберпростір; кібербезпека; деструктивні кібервпливи; інформаційна безпека.
Problem statement: general view and its connection with important scientific or practical tasks. Achieving the goals and realizing the interests of states and transnational corporations and even some specific actors on the world stage is gaining new opportunities through the intensive development of high technology, innovation, information and global cyberspace. Open military confrontation and other types of conflicts in these conditions are transformed into hybrid forms of destructive actions, in which the component of cognitive influences aimed at the human mind, worldview, mentality, which are an integral part of the cognitive sphere of society, grows. Such influences, at the present stage of development of society, are often aimed at forming distrust, changing views and value systems, weakening social cohesion and distorted perception of national interests and values, etc., so their study and counteraction is extremely relevant. Analysis of recent publications in sphere of research and identification of previously unresolved parts of the general problem. Issues related to the study of the cognitive sphere and its components, various cognitive influences on the audience in the process of communication, cognitive manipulation, especially in the field of discourses, and their consequences, were considered in the works of many domestic and foreign researchers, namely: M. Eisenko, L. Apostel, M. Bakhtin, D. Bolinger, P. Brown, E. Bienvenu, R. Blakar, X. Weinrich, A. Vezhbytska, V. Vinokur, Y. Habermas, J. Gintikki, G. Grice, S. Green, T. van Dyck, V. Demyankov, V. Zabotkin, A. Zvirintsev, S. Kara-Murza, E. Koit, O. Kubryakova, R. Lakoff, J. Lakoff, J. Lich, Y. Lotman , S. Levinson, D. Marr, J. Allwood, J. Austin, M. Popper, G. Pocheptsov, O. Rosenstock-Hussey, J. Searle, W. Stewart, S. Tulmin, L. Yakubinsky. At the same time, the study of multilevel, interconnected destructive cognitive effects in cyberspace and through cyberspace in hybrid conflicts and the analysis of practical experience of their coping and consequences, especially with regard to deep systemic aspects and synergies in modern publications are insufficiently addressed. The aim of the article is to study the threats and features of cognitive influences on society in cyberspace and respond to them to reduce the risks of their consequences. Main results. Modern hybrid warfare is a war with a combination of fundamentally different types and methods of its conduct, which are used in a coordinated manner to achieve its goals. It is a high-tech conflict, a continuation of the policy of states (coalitions, political groups, transnational corporations, etc.) in order to impose their will on opponents through complex, adaptive, asymmetric and synchronized influences on them in multidimensional space and various spheres with a combination of conventional and unconventional components, ensuring multiplicity and synergy of results and a high level of uncertainty for opponents regarding the ultimate goals and ways to achieve them. Its features are permanent, variable, in wide ranges, intensity, focus on systemic destabilization and changes that are useful to achieve the interests of the beneficiary, in all spheres of life and activity of the state that is the object of aggression. Hybrid actions, in addition to the purely force component, include complex destructive cognitive, informational, informational-psychological, propaganda and disinformation influences on certain target groups and society as a whole, with cyberattacks on information resources, infrastructure, economic processes and democratic institutions. At the same time, cognitive influences play a significant role in trying to manage communication, transform the beliefs of target audiences to the right (desired) and control their behavior. Issues of destructive cognitive actions are directly related to the processes of emission, processing, interpretation, transformation and internalization of knowledge in managed communication from strategic to tactical levels, from general to targeted impacts on society as a whole and its individual components and specific targets. audiences with integrated use of linguistic, figurative, hidden media effects, mental and other influences at different levels of cybersocial interaction, which, in modern conditions, is increasingly carried out in cyberspace and / or through cyberspace. The theoretical and applied results presented in the article can be used to ensure timely detection of dangers and threats of destructive cognitive influences on society in cyberspace and through cyberspace, risk assessment of their implementation and taking measures to counter and neutralize them. Conclusions. Cognitive influences have become an integral part of hybrid conflicts, both interstate and domestic, and between any geopolitical and regional actors, corporations, and organizations. The cognitive component has an exceptional role in the set of factors that form and cause conflict, affect its course and results, intensity and consequences. Therefore, modern, and especially conflicts of the future, are and will be conducted for the cognitive sphere of society (society, social groups, individuals), taking control and management of cognitive space, which includes perception, awareness, beliefs, understanding and values, intellectual environment of both individuals and social groups and society as a whole, in which, in fact, is their decision-making. Therefore, the main result of successful destructive cognitive influences is a change in the model of the world and its perception in man, social groups and society as a whole, which provides the opportunity to take control and external management on emotional, moral, cultural, ideological and mental levels with the formation stereotypes for the perception of reality through their prism. Of particular importance are the imposition and promotion of erroneous scientific, social, economic, state, military theories, paradigms, concepts, strategies, narratives, which are most effectively promoted and implemented through educational and scientific institutions, NGOs, electronic, social networks and the blogosphere. To this end, all opportunities for strategic communication are used, informational, psychological, cyber and other measures (actions, operations, etc.) are taken, which are aimed at both the direct participants in the conflict and the population of the participating countries, the international community. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis of the threats of such influences, their timely detection and deploy an effective system to counter them and neutralize them, because it becomes one of the key components of national security for today and in the future. Key words: cognitive influences; cyberspace; cybersecurity; destructive cyber influences; information security. ; У статті розглядаються теоретико-прикладні аспекти, особливості, небезпеки, загрози і ризики когнітивних впливів на соціум у кіберпросторі і через кіберпростір та реагування на них. Доведено, що боротьба за отримання контролю над певними цільовими групами в сучасних умовах передбачає насамперед можливість управління їхньою когнітивною сферою з використанням методів ментального, образного, мовного тощо впливів на неї. Це здійснюється в різноманітних інфокомунікаційних системах відповідно до ситуацій, переважно через соціальні мережі, блогосферу, художню, науково-популярну і наукову літературу та відповідні ресурси в інтернеті, розважальну і професійно-орієнтовану аудіо- і відеопродукцію, рекламу, ЗМІ, а також шляхом уведення змін, які сприяють цьому, в наукові теорії, навчальні програми тощо. Основна мета – навмисний вплив на відповідні цільові аудиторії для трансформації їх поглядів, переконань, світогляду, і самого сприйняття дійсності відповідно до інтересів і потреб сторони, яка справляє вплив. Це завжди багатоплановий, багатовекторний, комплексний, системний та керований процес загальної спрямованості або цільові, спрямовані на суспільство в цілому або на цільові групи, конкретних індивідів (ключових акторів), який передбачає справляння за єдиним замислом, планом, місцем і часом когнітивних, інформаційних, інформаційно-психологічних, кібер-впливів тощо. У сучасних умовах значна кількість сфер людської життєдіяльності перенеслася до кіберпростору та здійснюється через кіберпростір. При цьому майже єдиним джерелом знань та інформації для більшості людей поступово стають різноманітні інформаційні та освітні портали й електронні ресурси, які формуються в кіберпросторі. Це значно впливає на формування та зміну світогляду і ментальності соціуму. Саме через глобальну мережу «Інтернет» молодь сприймає найбільше неперевіреної, часто негативної, небажаної і навіть небезпечної інформації. Відсутність захисту соціуму від когнітивних загроз, які реалізуються в кіберпросторі і через кіберпростір, стає серйозним фактором ризику, деякі аспекти зменшення якого розглядаються в цій роботі. Ключові слова: когнітивні впливи; кіберпростір; кібербезпека; деструктивні кібервпливи; інформаційна безпека.
Inhaltsangabe: Introduction: '(A)n internal standard, so regulated as to maintain stability in an index number of prices, is a difficult scientific innovation, never yet put into practice'. Especially since the operational introduction as central bank monetary policy framework in the early 1990s in New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), Canada and Sweden, inflation targeting has gained both empirical and theoretical relevance as a monetary policy strategy. In this paper I relate to inflation targeting theory and its framework in the UK. For that purpose I first regard the development of inflation targeting in respect to other monetary policy strategies in sections (2.2) and (2.3). I will answer the question what the actual target variable is and why one would want to have inflation being low and stable. Then there is some complexity because the development of inflation targeting has to be viewed in relation to paradigmatic debates between Monetarist and New-Keynesian insights. In the sections (2.4) and (2.4) I present the two fundamental views of how an inflation targeting framework should be modelled. By stating some equations from basic theoretical literature, I try to give a overview about the dfferent characteristics of that monetary policy strategy and how there is still controversy about the way of modelling. Chapter (3) is concerned with the operational framework in the UK, including statements to historical developments at the Bank of England in section (3.1). In particular, gaining of operational independence in setting interest rates—section (3.1.5)—was an important step for the Bank. The present monetary policy framework will be reviewed in section (3.2), in detail relating to the Bank's publication policy—section (3.2.2)—and the inflation forecasting process—section (3.2.3). The Bank of England's model of the transmission mechanism is reviewed in section (3.3). This includes the interest rate setting process, the role of money and the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations. Finally, I discuss some economic effects that changed the British economy since the introduction of inflation targeting—section (3.4).Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Abstract2 2.Monetary Policy2 2.1Introduction2 2.2Monetary Policy2 2.2.1Monetary Policy Strategies in Theory2 2.2.2Monetary Stability as an Aim of Monetary Policy4 2.2.3Empirical Monetary Strategies 5 2.2.4Monetary Transmission Mechanisms6 2.3Inflation Targeting as Monetary Policy Strategy7 2.3.1Characterisation7 2.3.2The Origins8 2.3.3On Transparency9 2.3.4Form of the Target and the Policy Horizon10 2.3.5Asset Price Bubbles and Rapid Expansion of Credit10 2.3.6Critical Discussion12 2.4The Instrument Rule Model13 2.4.1Modelling Inflation Targeting13 2.4.2Kydland and Prescott's Time Consistency Problem14 2.4.3Barro and Gordon Introduce Reputation to the Game15 2.4.4McCallum and the Monetary Base17 2.4.5The Taylor Rule For Interest Rate Setting18 2.4.6Asymmetric Preferences and Non-linear Taylor Rules19 2.4.7Summary21 2.5The Target Rule Model22 2.5.1Svensson's Model in the New Keynesian Framework22 2.5.2Some Aspects in Critical Discussion25 2.6Summary26 3.The Process of Inflation Targeting in the UK28 3.1Some Historical Issues28 3.1.1Development of the Bank of England28 3.1.2Previous Monetary Policy Regimes29 3.1.3Adoption of Inflation Targeting30 3.1.4Operational Framework from 1992 – 199732 3.1.5Bank of England Operational Independence33 3.1.6Summary35 3.2Present Monetary Policy Framework at the Bank of England36 3.2.1Core Purposes and Monetary Strategy37 3.2.2The Bank's Publication Policy39 3.2.3Forecasting Inflation at the Bank of England41 3.3Bank of England Transmission Mechanism45 3.3.1The Transmission Mechanism in Overview45 3.3.2Interest Rate Setting Process and Quantitative Effects46 3.3.3Financial Markets and Spending Behaviour48 3.3.4From Changes in Spending Behaviour to GDP and Inflation50 3.3.5The Role of Money51 3.3.6Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Expectations52 3.4Effects of Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom54 3.4.1Introduction54 3.4.2Basic Economic Developments After Inflation Targeting54 3.4.3 Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Rate 57 3.4.4Empirical Evidence of a Non-linear Taylor Rule59 3.4.5Efficacy and Impact on Social Welfare60 3.4.6Inflation Targeting and The Household Sector After the Financial Crisis61 3.4.7Expected Inflation as a Metric of Heightened Credibility63 3.5Concluding Remarks65Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 2.4.6, Asymmetric Preferences and Non-linear Taylor Rules: The virtues of an interest-rate, or Taylor rule stem from its simplicity and its ability to serve either as an informative input or as a more decisive factor in the implementation of monetary policy. While empirical evidence from various countries indicates that Taylor rules are often able to capture the salient dynamics of the relevant short-term interest rate, it is frequently argued that simple linear rules may not be adequate to capture the complexities arising in the conduct of monetary policy. It is possible that a Taylor rule may not have a simple linear form, but instead is best described by a non-linear form. A growing body of research indicates that the likelihood of non-linearities in the conduct of monetary policy is considerably high. For example Blinder argues that it is not optimal for the central bank to contract demand in the event of small deviations of inflation from target. Instead, it should fight inflation when it is favourable to do so. Squeezing the last drop of above-target inflation out of the economy may be too costly because of a worsening trade-off between inflation and output at low levels of inflation. In addition, it may be that there are important asymmetries and non-linearities in the business cycle, which would require policy makers to condition the interest rate response of policy non- linearly on the output gap. Furthermore, the effects of monetary policy shocks do appear to be more profound in recessions than in expansions. So, asymmetric objectives normally lead to non-linear reaction functions. Dolado , Maria-Dolores and Naveira, for example, provide evidence that the US Fed and several European central banks have in the past responded more aggressively to positive compared to negative deviations of inflation from its target. In other research, the increased sensitivity of the central bank to negative output gaps along in the presence of uncertainty regarding the state of the economy is considered by Cuckierman and Ruge-Murcia to be the driving forces of inflation bias. Non-linearities relating to the UK will be further discussed in section (3.4.4).84 A simple way of capturing non-linearities in policy behaviour is to estimate threshold models whereby the policy rule switches into a different regime whenever inflation breaches one or more thresholds. It may be, for example, that when inflation is in the neighbourhood of the target level, the authorities pursue a largely accommodating monetary policy, so that changes in the interest rate are more or less random since they are responding to random shocks to the economy. Once inflation rises above a given level, however, the central bank may be more aggressive in linking interest rate movements to the implicit policy rule, so that the Taylor rule best describes short-run interest rate behaviour above that level. Similarly, if inflation falls below a certain level this may generate fears of deflation and the authorities may again implement a Taylor rule - but not necessarily the same one that is employed when inflation is high. This would suggest a three-regime model. Summary: The last section gave an overview to the early development of inflation targeting. Taylor provides a reference path for nominal interest rates, with (observed rather than expected) output and inflation deviations from targets as feedback variables. McCallum offers a path for base money growth in consistency with hitting an (again observed) nominal GDP trajectory. They are really two sides of the same monetary coin - one defined in quantity space, the other in price space. So in principle they provide information which is complementary. The reference paths from these monetary rules serve as a consistency check on a forward-looking policy rule. Precisely because they are mechanical and based on observable variables, the rules can help to identify and quantify the discretionary input into such a rule.86 While non-linearities in the Taylor rule can be the result of either non-linearity in the macro-economic structure of an economy (the output-inflation trade-off ) or of asymmetry in the central bank's preferences, it is quite likely that both of these features are present in the economy and interact to exacerbate the degree of non-linearity in the policy rule. In the eyes of Svensson, there are some disadvantages related to simple instrument rules as they were discussed in this section. He states that there is no room for the introduction of other influences on the target variables. The fact that no central bank yet explicitly introduced such a simple instrument rule is voting against its existence as direct monetary policy rule in countries that persue inflation targeting as well as in countries with other monetary policy systems. He points out that Taylor itself proposed that there might be circumstances where deviations from the rule are useful.88 So there has been research in a further direction, called target rule models.
