Suchergebnisse

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 사회과학대학 경제학부, 2020. 8. 홍석철. ; This dissertation is composed of three different themes of happiness economics. First of all, happiness economics is the field of study, which has been started by Richard A. Easterlin in 1974. It analyzes the relationship between the individual subjective well-being and economic variables such as income or investigates happiness determinants using economic tools. The theme of each paper is chosen since I think it plays an important role in happiness, while it has not been dealt with much in happiness economics so far. The first chapter examines the impact of health information on satisfaction of life using medical checkup status data. This study uses two methodologies, individual fixed effects and propensity score matching, to control the endogeneity problem that can exist between the checkup and happiness. This study has shown that individuals, on average, show higher life satisfaction when they have a medical checkup. Moreover, if the examination is conducted randomly, the positive effect of checkups gets bigger by eliminating the within under selection. To explicate the possible channel that links checkup and happiness, this paper suggests one hypothesis, uncertainty. The results are reporting that the impact of health screening increases as the uncertainty level of the group goes up. Therefore, we could infer that medical checkups could enhance life satisfaction by alleviating health-related uncertainty. The object of the second paper is to explain the happiness gap between conservatives and liberals by using macroeconomic variables. According to the results, the people who declare themselves as right-wingers are reporting a higher happiness level than the people on the left, even after controlling the effects of all the other factors. To explicate this disparity of happiness, this paper proposes two hypotheses. First is that the left-wingers are unhappier since they are relatively more hurt by income inequality. Second, right-wingers are happier since they feel greater pleasure through economic growth. While both economic factors are related to the happiness gap as the hypotheses predict, inequality plays a more central role in the disparity. It is, therefore, mainly income inequality that could explain the difference in happiness between the right and left-wingers. The last paper is about parental happiness's impact on a child's life satisfaction. Specifically, the study focuses on the impact of parents' average well-being in the past since the goal of the study is to examine how long it lasts in a child's life. The results show that parental happiness could have an impact on a child at most 16 years, even after controlling parents' current life satisfaction. This may imply that people who lived with happier parents are more likely to be happier in the future. Furthermore, to test whether the impact would differ by both parent and children's gender, heterogeneity analysis has been conducted. It is reported that the impact of mother and father is almost similar and there is no difference between daughter and son. This study provides two possible channels that could explain this constantly remaining parent's impact, based on precedent studies. First is genetic factors that can be inherited, and second is behavioral factors. There is a lot of literature devoted to these two determinants showing the possibility that parental happiness could linger on a child's life. ; 본 논문은 행복경제학에 대한 세 가지 다른 주제로 구성된 논문이다. 먼저 행복경제학이란, 1974년 Richard A. Easterlin의 연구로부터 시작된 학문으로 개인의 행복과 경제 변수들 간의 관계를 분석하거나 행복에 영향을 줄 수 있는 요인들을 경제학적으로 분석하는 학문 분야이다. 본 논문은 지금까지 행복경제학에서 많이 다루어지지 않은 요소들 중 저자가 생각하기에 행복에 있어 주요한 요소라 생각하는 세 가지 요인들에 대해 분석한 연구들로 구성된다. 첫 번째 논문은 건강 정보가 삶의 만족도에 미치는 영향력을 분석한 연구로 건강검진 여부 데이터를 활용한 실증 분석 연구이다. 분석에 있어서 수검 여부와 행복 간에 존재할 수 있는 내생성 문제를 해결하기 위해 개인고정효과와 성향점수매치 두 가지 방법을 활용한다. 연구 결과, 개인은 건강검진을 받았을 때 평균적으로 더 높은 삶의 만족도를 보이며, 검진이 무작위로 시행되는 경우 개인의 시간에 따른 하향 선택 편의가 사라짐으로써 긍정적인 효과가 더 크게 나타났다. 또한, 이 영향력의 경로를 설명하기 위해 불확실성에 따른 분석을 한 결과, 불확실성이 큰 그룹일수록 검진의 긍정적 영향력이 상승하였다. 이를 통해 건강 정보의 제공은 수검자의 건강 불확실성 감소를 통해 행복의 상승에 기여할 수 있다는 것을 확인하였다. 두 번째 연구는 정치적 성향에 따른 행복 차이를 거시경제 변수로 설명하고자 한 논문이다. 본 논문의 분석 결과에 따르면, 다른 모든 요소의 영향력을 통제한 이후에도 스스로 정치적 우파 성향이라고 응답한 집단의 경우, 좌파라고 응답한 집단보다 유의미하게 높은 행복도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 정치 성향에 따른 집단 간 행복 차이를 설명하기 위해 사회의 소득 불평등과 경제성장이 이 행복 차이에 미치는 영향력을 분석한 결과, 사회에 불평등이 사라지는 경우 두 집단 간의 행복 격차도 사라지는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 두 집단 간의 행복 차이 중 많은 부분이 불평등에 대한 인식의 차이와 연관되어 있음을 알 수 있다. 마지막 논문은 과거 부모의 행복이 미래 자녀의 행복에 얼마나 오랫동안 영향을 미치는가에 관한 연구이다. 부모의 행복을 특정 시점에 고정해 놓은 뒤 해당 시점의 행복이 미래 자녀의 행복에 미치는 영향을 본 결과, 과거 부모의 행복은 지속해서 자녀의 행복에 영향을 미치며 최대 16년까지 영향력이 지속하는 것을 관찰할 수 있었다. 또한, 이 영향력은 현재의 부모 행복을 통제한 이후에도 유의미한 영향력을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 아버지와 어머니의 영향력 간에 큰 차이가 나타나지 않았으며, 자녀의 성별에 따라서도 영향력의 차이가 나타나지 않았다. ; Introduction 1 Chapter Ⅰ. Medical Checkup Impact on Satisfaction of Life 1 1. INTRODUCTION 5 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 8 3. DATA AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS 10 4. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY 15 4.1 INDIVIDUAL FIXED EFFECT MODEL 16 4.2 PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING 17 5. RESULTS 19 5.1 MATCHING RESULT 19 5.2 BASELINE RESULTS 22 6. POSSIBLE CHANNEL 26 6.1 HYPOTHESIS 26 6.2 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 28 7. SUBGROUP ESTIMATIONS 31 8. CONCLUSION 35 REFERENCE 37 APPENDIX 40 Chapter Ⅱ. What Causes Happiness Gap Between Conservatives and Liberals? 41 1. INTRODUCTION 41 2. DATA AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS 45 3. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY 49 4. RESULTS 50 4.1BASELINE RESULTS 50 4.2 ROBUSTNESS CHECK 52 4.3 HETEROGENEITY 55 5. ECONOMIC FACTORS 59 5.1 HYPOTHESES 59 5.2 EMPIRICAL STRATEGY FOR HYPOTHESES TESTING 62 5.3 HYPOTHESES RESULTS 64 6. CONCLUSION 69 REFERENCE 72 APPENDICES 74 Chapter Ⅲ. Parents' Happiness Lingers on Child's Life 81 1. INTRODUCTION 81 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 83 3. DATA AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS 84 4. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY 87 5. RESULTS 88 5.1 BASELINE RESULTS 88 5.2 HETEROGENEITY 91 6. POSSIBLE CHANNELS 93 7. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION 94 REFERENCE 96 Conclusion 99 국문초록 101 ; Doctor

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 사회과학대학 경제학부, 2020. 8. 홍석철. ; This dissertation is composed of three different themes of happiness economics. First of all, happiness economics is the field of study, which has been started by Richard A. Easterlin in 1974. It analyzes the relationship between the individual subjective well-being and economic variables such as income or investigates happiness determinants using economic tools. The theme of each paper is chosen since I think it plays an important role in happiness, while it has not been dealt with much in happiness economics so far. The first chapter examines the impact of health information on satisfaction of life using medical checkup status data. This study uses two methodologies, individual fixed effects and propensity score matching, to control the endogeneity problem that can exist between the checkup and happiness. This study has shown that individuals, on average, show higher life satisfaction when they have a medical checkup. Moreover, if the examination is conducted randomly, the positive effect of checkups gets bigger by eliminating the within under selection. To explicate the possible channel that links checkup and happiness, this paper suggests one hypothesis, uncertainty. The results are reporting that the impact of health screening increases as the uncertainty level of the group goes up. Therefore, we could infer that medical checkups could enhance life satisfaction by alleviating health-related uncertainty. The object of the second paper is to explain the happiness gap between conservatives and liberals by using macroeconomic variables. According to the results, the people who declare themselves as right-wingers are reporting a higher happiness level than the people on the left, even after controlling the effects of all the other factors. To explicate this disparity of happiness, this paper proposes two hypotheses. First is that the left-wingers are unhappier since they are relatively more hurt by income inequality. Second, right-wingers are happier since they feel greater pleasure through economic growth. While both economic factors are related to the happiness gap as the hypotheses predict, inequality plays a more central role in the disparity. It is, therefore, mainly income inequality that could explain the difference in happiness between the right and left-wingers. The last paper is about parental happiness's impact on a child's life satisfaction. Specifically, the study focuses on the impact of parents' average well-being in the past since the goal of the study is to examine how long it lasts in a child's life. The results show that parental happiness could have an impact on a child at most 16 years, even after controlling parents' current life satisfaction. This may imply that people who lived with happier parents are more likely to be happier in the future. Furthermore, to test whether the impact would differ by both parent and children's gender, heterogeneity analysis has been conducted. It is reported that the impact of mother and father is almost similar and there is no difference between daughter and son. This study provides two possible channels that could explain this constantly remaining parent's impact, based on precedent studies. First is genetic factors that can be inherited, and second is behavioral factors. There is a lot of literature devoted to these two determinants showing the possibility that parental happiness could linger on a child's life. ; 본 논문은 행복경제학에 대한 세 가지 다른 주제로 구성된 논문이다. 먼저 행복경제학이란, 1974년 Richard A. Easterlin의 연구로부터 시작된 학문으로 개인의 행복과 경제 변수들 간의 관계를 분석하거나 행복에 영향을 줄 수 있는 요인들을 경제학적으로 분석하는 학문 분야이다. 본 논문은 지금까지 행복경제학에서 많이 다루어지지 않은 요소들 중 저자가 생각하기에 행복에 있어 주요한 요소라 생각하는 세 가지 요인들에 대해 분석한 연구들로 구성된다. 첫 번째 논문은 건강 정보가 삶의 만족도에 미치는 영향력을 분석한 연구로 건강검진 여부 데이터를 활용한 실증 분석 연구이다. 분석에 있어서 수검 여부와 행복 간에 존재할 수 있는 내생성 문제를 해결하기 위해 개인고정효과와 성향점수매치 두 가지 방법을 활용한다. 연구 결과, 개인은 건강검진을 받았을 때 평균적으로 더 높은 삶의 만족도를 보이며, 검진이 무작위로 시행되는 경우 개인의 시간에 따른 하향 선택 편의가 사라짐으로써 긍정적인 효과가 더 크게 나타났다. 또한, 이 영향력의 경로를 설명하기 위해 불확실성에 따른 분석을 한 결과, 불확실성이 큰 그룹일수록 검진의 긍정적 영향력이 상승하였다. 이를 통해 건강 정보의 제공은 수검자의 건강 불확실성 감소를 통해 행복의 상승에 기여할 수 있다는 것을 확인하였다. 두 번째 연구는 정치적 성향에 따른 행복 차이를 거시경제 변수로 설명하고자 한 논문이다. 본 논문의 분석 결과에 따르면, 다른 모든 요소의 영향력을 통제한 이후에도 스스로 정치적 우파 성향이라고 응답한 집단의 경우, 좌파라고 응답한 집단보다 유의미하게 높은 행복도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 정치 성향에 따른 집단 간 행복 차이를 설명하기 위해 사회의 소득 불평등과 경제성장이 이 행복 차이에 미치는 영향력을 분석한 결과, 사회에 불평등이 사라지는 경우 두 집단 간의 행복 격차도 사라지는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 두 집단 간의 행복 차이 중 많은 부분이 불평등에 대한 인식의 차이와 연관되어 있음을 알 수 있다. 마지막 논문은 과거 부모의 행복이 미래 자녀의 행복에 얼마나 오랫동안 영향을 미치는가에 관한 연구이다. 부모의 행복을 특정 시점에 고정해 놓은 뒤 해당 시점의 행복이 미래 자녀의 행복에 미치는 영향을 본 결과, 과거 부모의 행복은 지속해서 자녀의 행복에 영향을 미치며 최대 16년까지 영향력이 지속하는 것을 관찰할 수 있었다. 또한, 이 영향력은 현재의 부모 행복을 통제한 이후에도 유의미한 영향력을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 아버지와 어머니의 영향력 간에 큰 차이가 나타나지 않았으며, 자녀의 성별에 따라서도 영향력의 차이가 나타나지 않았다. ; Introduction 1 Chapter Ⅰ. Medical Checkup Impact on Satisfaction of Life 1 1. INTRODUCTION 5 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 8 3. DATA AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS 10 4. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY 15 4.1 INDIVIDUAL FIXED EFFECT MODEL 16 4.2 PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING 17 5. RESULTS 19 5.1 MATCHING RESULT 19 5.2 BASELINE RESULTS 22 6. POSSIBLE CHANNEL 26 6.1 HYPOTHESIS 26 6.2 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 28 7. SUBGROUP ESTIMATIONS 31 8. CONCLUSION 35 REFERENCE 37 APPENDIX 40 Chapter Ⅱ. What Causes Happiness Gap Between Conservatives and Liberals? 41 1. INTRODUCTION 41 2. DATA AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS 45 3. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY 49 4. RESULTS 50 4.1BASELINE RESULTS 50 4.2 ROBUSTNESS CHECK 52 4.3 HETEROGENEITY 55 5. ECONOMIC FACTORS 59 5.1 HYPOTHESES 59 5.2 EMPIRICAL STRATEGY FOR HYPOTHESES TESTING 62 5.3 HYPOTHESES RESULTS 64 6. CONCLUSION 69 REFERENCE 72 APPENDICES 74 Chapter Ⅲ. Parents' Happiness Lingers on Child's Life 81 1. INTRODUCTION 81 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 83 3. DATA AND VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS 84 4. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY 87 5. RESULTS 88 5.1 BASELINE RESULTS 88 5.2 HETEROGENEITY 91 6. POSSIBLE CHANNELS 93 7. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION 94 REFERENCE 96 Conclusion 99 국문초록 101 ; Doctor

Satellite navigation is a promising technology for terrestrial applications that requires the monitoring of the vehicle position thanks to costly ground infrastructures. In the rail domain, the European train control system (ETCS) relies on a combination of radio beacons (that provides information of absolute position) and odometry to propagate the position between two balises groups. The use of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) in ETCS has been proposed in order to reduce the amount of beacons. In the road domain, the GNSS is one of the technologies recommended by the European Union directive for Electronic Toll Collection (ETC), and GNSS based ETC systems already exists for heavy good transportation in Germany (Toll Collect) and Slovakia (MYTO). For these two applications that are either safety critical (train control) or liability critical (toll collection), it is not acceptable to estimate the position of the vehicle with a large error without warning the system within a sufficiently short delay. It is firstly necessary to define the operational requirements for the navigation system for these terrestrial applications. This kind of problematic has already been handled in the context of civil aviation which is also a critical application, but currently, the operational requirements associated to GNSS are not standardized for the train control and ETC. Based on the model of civil aviation, a state of the art of possible requirements for train control and electronic toll collection is proposed. For train control, a solution based on redundant independent GNSS constellations has been proposed in order to relax the integrity risk requirements on each sub constellation. In the case of ETC, the requirements will depend on the case of study and are indirectly imposed by the toll charger. For terrestrial applications, the vehicles are likely to operate in constrained environment (including urban environment). In urban environment, the performances of GNSS are highly degraded due to multipath interference, tracking of non-line-of-sights and masking effects. These phenomena are likely to degrades the accuracy, integrity, availability and continuity of the GNSS based positioning system. It is proposed to augment the solution proposed for each application by integrating measurements from a six axis inertial measurement unit which are insensitive to the receiver surrounding environment. Integrating information from other sensors such as a track database for train control or odometry for toll collection is investigated. The nominal error models and fault modes of the sensors are then studied. The nominal error models will be used to weight the measurements in the fusion algorithm and to test the performances of the fusion algorithm by realistic simulations. In particular, the characterization of the distribution and the modelling of the errors dues to multipath and non-line-of-sights in urban environment is studied on simulator and on a data collection campaign conducted in Toulouse downtown (France) and its surroundings. The extended Kalman filter used to fuse the GNSS measurements and the measurements from other sensors are then presented. A tight coupling architecture in closed loop is presented as it is the most adapted to the cases of study. The integration of a track database in the solution is discussed in the case of train control. The extension of the solution to the multi-constellation case is also presented. The solutions have been validated and tested on a simulator as well as in real condition in Toulouse downtown. It is shown that additional sensors such as track database or wheel speed sensors enable to limit the drift of the position error in costing/degraded constellation condition. Then, it is proposed to improve the robustness and the reliability of the GNSS measurements in urban area by developing multipath detection algorithms at the signal processing level. A detection algorithm based on the real time analysis of the correlation function is proposed. This algorithm aims at assisting the integrity monitoring algorithm upstream by protecting it against the faults due to multipath with large amplitudes. However, this algorithm does not protect against non-line-of-sights that can lead to integrity failures as this phenomenon is not associated with any abnormal distortion. Several methods based on the elevations of the satellites, the signal to noise ratio, or the coherence of the measurements based on the comparison with non GNSS sensors measurements have been studied in order to protect the solution against this phenomenon. Two snapshots integrity monitoring algorithms adapted to the Kalman filter are presented. Finally, the performances of these algorithms are tested on the data collected in Toulouse downtown and surroundings. The improvement obtained by assisting the integrity monitoring algorithm upstream by testing the quality of the measurement is quantized (with respect to a simple inflation of the nominal models in urban environments). ; La navigation par satelolite est une technologie prometteuse pour les applications terrestresqui necessitent le controle d'un véhicule à partir d'infrastructures sol couteuses.

The recent Nobel Prize assigned to Paul Krugman "for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity" witnesses the important role that the scienti�c community gives to the insights of the so-called New Economic Geography (NEG) literature. This field of economic analysis has always been particularly appealing to policy makers, given the direct link between its results and regional policy rules. For the same reason it is useful to deepen the analysis of its most important outputs by testing the theoretical robustness of some of its more relevant statements. This thesis tries to o¤er a contribution in this direction by focusing on a particular sub-field of NEG literature, the so-called New Economic Geography and Growth (NEGG) literature, having in Baldwin and Martin (2004) and Baldwin et. al (2004) the most important theoretical syntheses. These two surveys collect and present in an uni�ed framework the works by Baldwin, Martin and Ottaviano (2001), where capital is immobile and spillovers are localized, Martin and Ottaviano (1999) where spillovers are global and capital is mobile. Other related papers are Baldwin (1999) which introduces forward looking expectations in the so-called Footloose capital model developed by Martin and Rogers (1995); Baldwin and Forslid (1999) which introduces endogenous growth by means of a q-theory approach; Baldwin and Forslid (2000) where spillovers are localized, capital is immobile and migration is allowed. Some more recent developments in the NEGG literature can be distinguished in two main strands. One takes into consideration factor price differences in order to discuss the possibility of a monotonic relation between agglomeration and integration (Bellone and Maupertuis (2003) and Andres (2007)). The other one assumes firms heterogeneity in productivity (first introduced by Eaton and Kortum (2002) and Melitz (2003)) in order to analyse the relationship between growth and the spatial selection e¤ect leading the most productive firms to move to larger markets (see Baldwin and Okubo (2006) and Baldwin and Robert-Nicoud (2008). These recent developments are related to our work in introducing some relevant departures from the standard model. Indeed this thesis develops and extends the theoretical framework of New Economic Geography theory along several routes. In the third chapter of the thesis we develop a New Economic Geography and Growth model which, by using a CES utility function in the second-stage optimization problem, allows for expenditure shares in industrial goods to be endogenously determined. The implications of our generalization are quite rel-evant. In particular, we obtain the following novel results: 1) catastrophic agglomeration may always take place, whatever the degree of market integration, provided that the traditional and the industrial goods are su¢ ciently good substitutes; 2) the regional rate of growth is affected by the interregional allocation of economic activities even in the absence of localized spillovers, so that geography always matters for growth and 3) the regional rate of growth is af- fected by the degree of market openness: in particular, depending on whether the traditional and the industrial goods are good or poor substitutes, economic integration may be respectively growth-enhancing or growth-detrimental. In the fourth chapter of the thesis we build a New Economic Geography and Growth model based on Baldwin, Martin and Ottaviano (2001) with an additional sector producing Non-tradable goods (services). By assuming intersectoral and localized knowledge spillovers from the innovation sector to the service sector, we show that firms'allocation affects regional real growth. More precisely we assume that the unit labour requirements (and thereby the prices) in the service production are a negative function of the output of innovation, i.e. the stock of knowledge capital. Due to this new specification, real growth rates in the two regions always diverge when the firms allocation pattern differs from the symmetric one. This result is a novelty in the standard theoretical NEGG literature where regional gap in real growth rate is always zero. Moreover, this result has strong policy implications because it suggests that concentrating in- dustries in only one region may also bring a dynamic loss for the periphery. By analyzing the trade-o¤ between the dynamic gains of agglomeration (due to localized intertemporal spillovers) and the dynamic loss of agglomeration (due to localized intersectoral spillovers), we also discuss different notions of optimal level of agglomeration. The thesis will proceed as follows: in the chapters one and two we describe the state of the art in New Economic Geography and its further developments such as the New Economic Geography and Growth, the possibility of a monotonic relation between agglomeration and integration, and finally the firms heterogeneity in New Economic Geography models. Instead in chapters three and four we present our original contribution to the theory, i.e. the analysis of endogenous expenditure shares and intersectoral knowledge spillovers on the agglomeration patterns and economic growth.

[eng] This thesis consists of four self-contained but related papers trying to uncover different aspects of banking and sovereign risk in the member countries of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). From a methodological point of view, they all have in common the contingent claims model from the theory of finance, which is used to value call options on a stock. The first paper, "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries", studies the structural differences in banking sector and financial regulations at country level to measure and analyze the banking sector risk behavior. Deviating from the current view, which in our opinion is excessively focused on Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs), we introduce a micro approach to emphasize the role of smaller financial institutions in build-up of risk. The paper starts with a discussion of the reasons that are needed to consider this choice. Contingent claims analysis model is employed to calculate the risk of individual banks which is then aggregated at country level. The remaining of the paper tries to highlight the information content of country level banking risk indices. It is shown that if banking sector risk is calculated at country level using a bigger sample of banks, it can provide a simple, convenient and intuitive forward looking risk measure. The risk measures differentiate countries based on the structural differences in their financial sectors and show strong correlations with national and regional market sentiment indicators. They outperform the regulatory risk measures based at the European level and the causal linkages run from them to the latter indicators, suggesting better information content. And even though they have high correlations, causality and connectedness tests reveal no systemic component. The second paper, "Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises", attempts to quantify the directional intensity of sovereign-bank linkages in the euro area countries. To this end, we borrow the indicator of banking sector risk in each country from the first paper, and use a traditional measure of sovereign risk (10-year government yield spreads over Germany). The paper starts with the review of channels via which banks and sovereigns are linked in a vicious cycle. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in each country, allowing us to check for episodes of significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of causality intensification vary considerably in both directions over time and across the different EMU countries. The directionality suggests the presence of causality intensification, mainly from banks to sovereigns, in the crisis periods. Our findings also present empirical evidence about the existence of an adverse feedback loop between sovereigns and banks in some euro-area countries. The third paper, "Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models: Application to peripheral euro area countries", develops and uses a seniority structure of sovereign's creditors to analyze the impact of sectoral distribution of debt on the sovereign credit risk. Specifically, this paper highlights the role of multilateral creditors (i.e., the ECB, IMF, ESM etc.) and their preferred creditor status in explaining the sovereign default risk of peripheral euro area (EA) countries. Incorporating lessons from sovereign debt crises in general, and from the Greek debt restructuring in particular, we define the priority structure of sovereigns' creditors that is most relevant for peripheral EA countries in severe crisis episodes. This new priority structure of creditors, together with the contingent claims methodology, is then used to derive a set of sovereign credit risk indicators. In particular, the sovereign distance-to-default indicator, proposed in this paper (which includes both accounting metrics and market-based measures) aims to isolate sovereign credit risk by using information from the public sector balance sheets to build it up. Analyzing and comparing it with traditional market-based measures of sovereign risk suggests that the measurement and predictive ability of credit risk measures can be vastly improved if we account for the changing composition of sovereigns' balance sheet risk based on creditors' seniority. In the last paper, "Revisiting the sovereign-bank linkages: Evidence from contingent claims analysis", we reconsider the sovereign-bank nexus as discussed in the second paper to check the robustness of our findings. Using the banking sector risk indicator developed in our first paper, together with the sovereign risk index build in the third paper we re-inspect the bank-sovereign linkages. We use three different statistical measures of interconnection based on principal components analysis, Granger causality network and Diebold-Yilmaz's connectedness index. We also compare our results with alternative specifications using existing market-based indicators of banking and sovereign risk. Our results suggest strong connectedness and co-movement between country-level banking and sovereign risk indicators. We also find evidence of an increasing role of idiosyncratic risk factors driving the evolution of all risk indices in the post-crisis period, thus supporting the "wake-up call hypothesis" that the sensitivity of financial market participants to fundamental differences increased during the crisis. Country-wise analysis of time-varying bi-directional linkages using dynamic Granger-causality suggests the development of a bank-sovereign doom loop in Spain corroborating for this country the findings of our second paper. Connectedness analysis also suggest that increasingly the risk is being driven away from market-based uncertainty to the idiosyncratic risk factors, which are better captured by the contingent claim based indices.

Krim-Kongo Hämorrhagisches Fieber (CCHF) ist eine beim Menschen tödlich verlaufende Erkrankung mit Letalitätsraten von 5% (Türkei) bis 80% (Volksrepublik China). Diese Variation hängt vom Kenntnisstand in der Bevölkerung über das Vorkommen dieser Infektionskrankheit, von der Qualität des Gesundheitswesens, von der Genauigkeit des Meldesystems und vom zirkulierenden Virusstamm ab. Das Krim-Kongo-Hämorrhagische‑Fieber-Virus (CCHFV) wird vorrangig durch Zecken der Gattung Hyalomma übertragen und kommt in Afrika, Asien und Europa vor. Hyalomma spp. bevorzugen im Allgemeinen ein warmes und trockenes Klima und eine weniger dichte Vegetation. Hyalomma spp.-Populationen kommen deshalb natürlicherweise nur bis zum 46. nördlichen Breitengrad vor. Weitere Infektionsquellen für den Menschen sind der Kontakt zu Blut, Körperflüssigkeiten und Gewebematerial von virämischen Tieren oder auch infektiösen Menschen; auch das Zerdrücken von CCHFV-infizierten Zecken kann zur Infektion führen. Obwohl Tiere in der Regel nach der Infektion keine klinischen Symptome zeigen, entwickeln sie einen stabilen Antikörpertiter, der noch viele Jahre nach der Infektion nachweisbar ist. Deshalb kann der CCHFV-Antikörpernachweis bei Wiederkäuern zur Feststellung von Risikogebieten verwendet werden. Am gründlichsten ist die CCHFV-Infektion in endemischen Gebieten in Europa und Kleinasien untersucht worden. Demgegenüber gibt es über das CCHFV-Vorkommen in Afrika kaum aktuelle Daten. Daher war das Hauptziel der hier vorgestellten Studien, das CCHFV-Vorkommen in verschiedenen Subsahara-Ländern (Mauretanien, Mali, Kamerun und Demokratische Republik Kongo (DR Kongo)) zu untersuchen. Hierzu wurden zunächst modifizierte serologische Tests angewendet, die zuvor zur Untersuchung von Wiederkäuerseren aus Südosteuropa entwickelt worden waren. Diese Testmethoden umfassten einen kommerziellen (Spezies-adaptierten) Enzym-gekoppelten-Immunadsorptionstest (ELISA) und einen im eigenen Labor entwickelten indirekten CCHFV‑IgG-ELISA sowie einen (Spezies-adaptierten) indirekten Immunfluoreszenz-Test (IFA). Die Anpassung dieser Tests umfasste Veränderungen in den Protokollen und bei den Grenzwerten. Die so modifizierten Tests erreichten diagnostische Sensitivitäten von 95% ‑ 98% und Spezifitäten von 98% - 100%. Da diese Tests jedoch auch in weniger gut ausgestatteten Laboren in Afrika bei tropischer Hitze verwendet werden sollten, wurde ein weiterer auch unter diesen Verhältnissen noch robuster indirekter CCHFV-IgG-ELISA für Rinder mit vergleichbarer diagnostischer Performance (Sensitivität und Spezifität jeweils 99%) entwickelt. Dieser ELISA wurde anschließend im Rahmen seroepidemiologischer Studien an Rinderseren aus Mali und Kamerun (2014 gesammelt) eingesetzt. Parallel dazu wurde ein hochsensitiver Multiplex-CCHFV-RT-qPCR-Nachweis auf der Basis von 12 Genotyp-spezifischen und 2 universalen Primern entwickelt und validiert, der darauf abzielt alle aktuell bekannten CCHFV-Stämme zu detektieren. Dieser RT-qPCR-Nachweis wurde komplettiert durch die Verwendung zweier spezifischer Carboxyfluorescein-Sonden zum direkten CCHFV-Erregergenom-Nachweis. Ein solcher universeller Nachweis war bis dato angesichts der großen Sequenz-Variationen zwischen den CCHFV-Stämmen der sechs bekannten Genotypen nicht verfügbar. Mithilfe von sechs Kalibrator-RNAs ist ferner die genaue Genotyp-spezifische Quantifizierung von CCHFV möglich. Die serologische Nachweismethoden wurden anschließend zur Untersuchung von über 3000 Wiederkäuerseren aus den in Subsahara-Afrika liegenden Ländern Mauretanien, Mali, Kamerun und DR Kongo verwendet. Wiederkäuerseren wurden als CCHFV-Antikörper-positiv erachtet, wenn sie in zwei unabhängigen ELISA-Systemen reaktive Ergebnisse erbrachten. Bei abweichenden Ergebnissen wurde eine IFA zur endgültigen Diagnose durchgeführt. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass CCHFV-Infektionen in allen vier Ländern (Mauretanien, Mali, Kamerun und DR Kongo) vorkommen. Dies war insbesondere für Kamerun ein überraschendes Ergebnis, da es sich um den ersten Nachweis dieser Infektionskrankheit in diesem Land handelt. Die höchsten Prävalenzraten wurden in Mauretanien, Mali und Nordkamerun nachgewiesen. Dies stimmte mit den Vegetations- und klimatischen Bedingungen und den dort jeweils vorliegenden, von Hyalomma-Zecken präferierten Habitaten überein. Umgekehrt lassen sich auch die deutlich niedrigeren Prävalenzen in Südkamerun und DR Kongo mit der (geringeren) Eignung der lokalen Vegetation und des lokalen Klimas für Hyalomma-Zecken erklären. Ggfs. steht auch die Viehdichte mit dem Vorkommen von CCHFV in einem Gebiet im direkten Zusammenhang. In Nordkamerun, wo eine deutlich höhere Viehdichte als im Süden des Landes vorzufinden ist, wurden deutlich mehr Rinder positiv auf CCHFV-spezifische Antikörper getestet als im Süden mit geringerer Rinderdichte. Eine ähnliche Korrelation wurde auch in Mali nachgewiesen. Da im Rahmen dieser Studie zum ersten Mal CCHFV-Infektionen in Kamerun detektiert werden konnten, war es wichtig, das Virus auch direkt nachzuweisen. Zu diesem Zweck wurden in einem CCHFV-hochendemischen Gebiet in Nordkamerun 109 Hyalomma-Zecken von Rindern abgesammelt und molekulardiagnostisch auf CCHFV untersucht. Hierzu wurde die hochsensitive Multiplex-SYBR–Green-CCHFV-RT-qPCR verwendet. Proben mit charakteristischer Amplifikation wurden mithilfe der Sonden-basierten Multiplex-CCHFV-RT-qPCR bestätigt. CCHFV konnte in 7 von 109 Zecken nachgewiesen werden, und die amplifizierte Genomsequenz konnte phylogenetisch als Genotyp III eingeordnet werden. Zusammenfassend kann festgehalten werden, dass Wiederkäuer auch in den Subsahara‑Ländern als ausgezeichnete Indikator-Tiere für CCHFV-Infektionen angesehen werden können und dass hierzu nun hochsensitive und -spezifische und gleichzeitig robuste ELISAs zur Verfügung stehen. Die hohe Seroprävalenz in Nordkamerun wurde durch den molekularen RT-qPCR-Nachweis des CCHFV-Genoms bestätigt. Die serologischen und molekulardiagnostischen Daten deuten auf ein weiträumiges und gleichzeitig hochgradiges Infektionsgeschehen in den Ländern Subsahara-Afrikas hin. Angesichts der vorliegenden Daten erscheint zumindest in bestimmten Regionen die Einführung von Aufklärungsaktionen für potenzielle Risikogruppen und auch der Allgemeinbevölkerung empfehlenswert. ; Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a fatal disease in humans with observed case fatality rates varying from 5% in Turkey to 80% in the People's Republic of China. This variability most likely depends on general awareness of the population, quality of the public healthcare system, sensitivity of the notification system and on the individual virus strain. The primary transmission route of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is by tick bites. Therefore, the virus distribution on the African, Asian and European continent is closely linked to the main vector, ticks of the genus Hyalomma. Hyalomma spp. generally prefer a warm and dry climate with a fragmented and less dense vegetation. Hence, these ticks are not able to create a stable and self-sustaining population further north than 46° N. Other sources of infections are contact to blood, body fluids and tissues of viremic animals or human patients and by crushing infected ticks. The detection of CCHFV-specific antibodies in ruminant sera is commonly used as indicator to reveal infection risk areas also for humans. Even though animals do not show clinical signs, they develop a stable IgG antibody titer that is detectable for many years after infection. CCHFV is best investigated in endemic areas in Europe. In contrast, research on the CCHFV prevalence on the African continent was fairly neglected for many decades and up-to-date information is only available for a few African countries. Therefore, the main goal of this thesis was to investigate the CCHFV prevalence in four different countries located in sub-Saharan Africa. For this purpose, a series of serological assays recently developed for testing ruminant sera from Southeastern Europe was employed. These assays included a commercial (species adapted) enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and an in-house CCHFV‑IgG-ELISA as well as a commercial (species adapted) immunofluorescence assay (IFA). The adaptation of these assays included protocol and cut-off changes to reach convincing diagnostic sensitivities (95% - 98%) and specificities (98% - 100%). However, as the assays were supposed also to be run in less well equipped laboratories in Africa, a robust and highly reproducible indirect cattle in-house CCHFV-IgG-ELISA was developed. The extensive modifications in the novel CCHFV-IgG-ELISA did not only increase the robustness of the assay and simplify the procedure but also enabled testing sera under the technical standards currently available in African laboratories. Nonetheless this new assay had an excellent diagnostic sensitivity and specificity (both 99%) and was therefore used in the seroepidemiological studies in Mali and Cameroon (sera collected in 2014). In parallel, a highly specific and sensitive multiplex CCHFV RT-qPCR using 12 genotype‑specific primers, 2 universal primers and 2 carboxyfluorescein probes for the reliable detection of all currently known CCHFV strains was newly designed and validated. This assay detects synthetic and native virus sequences of all six known genotypes and six calibrator RNAs enable the genotype-specific and precise quantification of CCHFV. Serological assays were subsequently used to screen more than 3,000 ruminant sera from Mauritania, Mali, Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), countries all situated in sub-Saharan Africa, and questions about the correlation of CCHFV prevalence with vegetation, climate and animal density were addressed. Ruminant sera were considered positive for CCHFV antibodies, if they were reactive in two independent ELISAs. In case of divergent results, the IFA was used for final diagnosis. This approach revealed CCHFV infections in ruminants in all four countries Mauritania, Mali, Cameroon and DR Congo, which was a surprising result especially for Cameroon as this was the first demonstration of this infectious disease in this country. Highest prevalence rates were detected in Mauritania, Mali and North Cameroon, which is consistent with the vegetation and climatic conditions and the habitat preference of Hyalomma ticks. Conversely, medium to low prevalence rates were found in Southern Cameroon and the DR Congo, which was also in accordance with the suitability of local vegetation and clime for these arthropods. Moreover, cattle densities seemed also to correlate with the presence of CCHFV in an area. Most CCHFV-specific antibody positive cattle were detected in North Cameroon, where cattle density is much higher than in the South and a similar correlation was noticed for Mali. As this study revealed for the first time CCHFV infections in Cameroon, it was of crucial importance also to prove that the virus is circulating in this environment. For this purpose, 109 Hyalomma ticks were collected from infested bovines in a CCHFV highly endemic area in North Cameroon and were assayed for CCHFV genomes using a novel highly sensitive multiplex SYBR Green CCHFV RT-qPCR based on 14 different primers for the detection of all currently known CCHFV genotypes. Samples with a characteristic amplification were eventually reconfirmed using a multiplex CCHFV RT-qPCR, which had the same genotype specific primer sets and two additional CCHFV specific probes included. CCHFV was found in 7 of the 109 ticks and amplified genome sequences clustered phylogenetically into genotype III. In summary, the work presented here highlights the importance of seroprevalence studies in ruminants as indicator animals and molecular diagnostic studies in ticks to determine, whether CCHFV is circulating in sub-Saharan countries/regions. The current data obtained for Cameroon, DR Congo, Mali and Mauritania allow carrying out risk assessments for human infections and therefore help to define whether public health protection measures (e.g. raising awareness for risk groups and the broader public) should be applied.

In Cameroon, the sequence of reforms in the health sector has reinforced an ideological wavering between two opposing currents: a socio-universal that promotes equity, and a neoliberal, which militates for greater economic efficiency of existing systems. Articulating two concerns which are, the worsening of health inequalities as consequence of policy choices made on the efficacy of services without taking into account factors that support the demand, and the form of organization of the health system arising from an imperfect translation of major international principles, this thesis aims to contributing to a critical reflection on the process, the implementation and the results produced by these health policies. To determine Cameroonian specificity, we inscribe them in a triple theoretical field. The neo-institutionalist approach, mobilize to grasp the importance of the economic history and its influence on the evolution of the health system, which allows understanding the conditions for policy change. The "referentials" approach to policy analysis in order to apprehend the foundations of the new public policy, including the understanding of how interests and ideas are formatted by institutions. An effort to illuminate the policy game is undertaken to appraise the mediation of political entrepreneurs, thereby testing empirically the "top-down hypothesis". Finally, the theories of justice help to argue for the existence of an imbalance between health supply and demand which undermines health outcomes, and reinforces the conflict efficacy versus equity. Indeed, our work aims to provide some answers to three main questions: (i) Why (triggers) and how (dynamic) health public policies are influenced in their construction and implementation by economic policies? (ii) What are the outcomes of induced changes by the global referential (macroeconomic framework) on sectoral referential that requires a more equitable distribution and access to health services? (iii) What lessons can we learn from the knowledge of the interrelationships between the dynamics of poverty reduction and the persistence of inaccessibility to health care in order to improve the evaluation of public policies? From a number of quantitative and qualitative indicators, the robustness of the new policy is questioned following prospects regarding health distribution and accessibility. Therefore, we emphasize the difficulty of the public policy to achieve satisfactory results both in terms of efficacy or equity due to the institutional and organizational system in which it is designed and implemented. Three epistemic communities acting on a nonstructural basis are identified and analyzed through a robust qualitative material that enables us to grasp the existence of a paradigmatic conflict emerged from how different groups are positioning themselves and interpret reality in order to put in coherence the sectorial referential and the global market-based one which appears to be rather spontaneous and mandatory. Statistical and econometric works to measure more precisely the inequalities and determinants of access and use of health services by the population supports the idea of a widening of inequalities by the health policies maintained by strong regressive mechanisms. The analysis of the determinants of occurrence of catastrophic health expenditures also confirms this. We mobilize thereafter an additional material to assess the allocative efficiency and efficacy of public spending on health as well as their impact on the use of services and benefits revealed from their use. ; Au Cameroun, l'enchaînement des reformes en matière de santé a renforcé le flottement idéologique entre deux courants opposés : un socio-universel qui promeut l'équité, et l'autre néolibéral, qui milite pour une plus grande efficacité économique des systèmes en place. Articulant deux préoccupations que sont l'aggravation des inégalités de santé comme conséquence des choix politiques portés sur l'efficacité des services sans prise en compte des facteurs qui soutiennent la demande, et les formes d'organisation de la santé qui découlent d'une traduction imparfaite des grands principes internationaux, cette thèse a pour objectif de contribuer à une réflexion critique sur le processus de fabrication, la mise en œuvre et les résultats produits par ces politiques de santé. Pour cerner la spécificité camerounaise, nous les inscrivons dans un triple champ théorique. Le courant économique néo-institutionnaliste pour saisir l'importance de l'histoire économique du pays et son influence sur l'évolution du système de santé, ce qui permet de comprendre les conditions de changement politique. Le modèle de référentiel de politique publique pour appréhender les fondements de la nouvelle politique publique, notamment la façon dont les idées et les intérêts sont formatés par les institutions. Un essai de décodage du jeu d'acteurs est entrepris en s'appuyant sur la médiation, mettant à l'épreuve les hypothèses de « l'ajustement par le haut ». Enfin, les théories de la justice sont sollicitées pour argumenter en faveur de l'existence d'un déséquilibre entre l'offre et la demande qui agit sur les résultats sanitaires et qui renforce le conflit efficacité versus équité. En effet, notre travail ambitionne d'apporter des éléments de réponses à trois questions principales : (i) Pourquoi (déclencheurs) et comment (dynamique) les politiques publiques de santé sont-elles transformées dans leur construction et leur mise en œuvre par les politiques économiques ? (ii) Quels sont les effets du changement induit par le référentiel global sur le référentiel sectoriel qui exige une distribution de l'accès aux services de santé plus équitable ? (iii) Quels enseignements peut-on tirer de la connaissance des interrelations entre la dynamique de réduction de la pauvreté et l'inaccessibilité persistante dans l'accès aux soins de santé pour une amélioration de l'évaluation des politiques publiques ? A partir d'un nombre d'indicateurs quantitatifs et qualitatifs, la robustesse de la nouvelle politique est questionnée suivant les perspectives de distribution et d'accessibilité. Dès lors, nous soulignons la difficulté à atteindre des résultats satisfaisants que ce soit en termes d'efficacité ou d'équité à cause du système institutionnel et organisationnel dans lequel elle se conçoit et se met en œuvre. Trois communautés épistémiques plus ou moins forts qui agissent de façon peu structurée sont repérées et analysées à travers un matériau qualitatif riche qui permet d'appréhender l'existence d'un conflit paradigmatique né de la façon dont les groupes se positionnent et arrivent à mettre en cohérence le référentiel sectoriel de la santé avec le référentiel global de marché qui revêt plutôt un caractère spontané et impératif. Un travail statistique et économétrique permettant de mesurer plus finement les inégalités et les déterminants d'accès et de recours aux soins par les populations soutient l'idée d'un creusement des inégalités de santé par ces politiques soutenues par des mécanismes de financement fortement régressifs. L'analyse des déterminants de survenue des dépenses catastrophiques vient également confirmer ce positionnement. Nous apprécions par la suite l'efficacité allocative et l'efficience des dépenses publiques de santé ainsi que leur impact sur l'utilisation des services et les bénéfices révélés de leur utilisation.

The table of contents of the Proceedings is followed by an Introductory Note by John P. Robinson & Kurt Back which states that the 26th AAPOR Conference was held May 19-22, 1971 in Pasadena, Calif. 16 formal sessions & 8 luncheon round-table discussions were held under the general theme 'Public Opinion in a Society under Pressure.' The AAPOR Award for distinguished achievement was presented to Walter Lippmann. A brief history of the Award is given. Richard H. Baxter, A NEW GOAL FOR AAPOR: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS, discusses the relevancy of AAPOR as an org in the context of modern survey res & the increasing depersonalization & massive growth of the res community. The org has made 4 kinds of responses to recent developments of professional growth: (a) high-caliber annual conference programs; (b) the consistently dedicated activity of successive AAPOR Standing Committees on Standards; (c) the encouragement & development of young people having an interest in PO res through the Annual AAPOR Student Competition; (d) the establishment of an ad hoc committee chaired by Barbara Lee-on Soc Concerns. The role of individual AAPOR members as res ombudsmen in their communities is touched upon. The establishment of a professional consultation panel is proposed. ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS presents the following: (1) SOCIAL INDICATORS - Chairman: Raymond A. Bauer (Harvard U, Cambridge, Mass); Donald S. Shoup, 'Social Indicators: Some Possible Futures;' & Peter J. Henriot (Seattle U, Washington), 'Social Indicators: Some Practical Politics.' (2) IMPACT OF SOCIAL RESEARCH ON POLICY DECISIONS - Chairman: Hervert I. Abelson; John P. Robinson (U of Michigan, Ann Arbor), 'The Surgeon General's Advisory Committee on Television and Social Behavior;' Nathan Caplan (U of Michigan, Ann Arbor), 'The National Commission on Civil Disorders;' Joseph T. Klapper (Columbia Broadcasting System, New York, NY), 'Observations on the Research Situation Faced by Commissions and Similar Bodies;' Sandar J. Ball-Rokeach (U of Western Ontarto,Toronto), 'The National Commission on the Causes and Prevention of Violence.' (3) CONSUMERISM: DIRECTIONS AND ISSUES, Chairman: Robert Lavidge: Robert J. Lavidge, 'Introductory Remarks;' Raymond A. Bauer (Harvard U, Cambridge, Mass), 'Consumerism in Perspective;' John S. Coulson, 'A Response to Consumerists.' (4) ESTABLISHMENT ELITES IN A TIME OF CHANGE, Chairman: Robert E. Lee: Victor D. Beardsley, 'Local Leadership: Its Characteristics and Structure;' Ruth Clark, 'Top Corporate Leadership in a Time of Change.' (5) TRANSITIONS IN YOUTH CULTURE: A SPECULATIVE FRAMEWORK, Chairman: Luiz Simmons: Luiz Simmons, 'The Real Generation Gap: A Speculation on the Meaning and Implications of Youth Activism;' Elinor Luire (San Francisco Med Center, Calif), 'Son of the Silent Majority: Intergenerational Perceptions of Youthful Dissent;' David Gottlieb (Pennsylvania State U, University Park), 'Vista, Pepsi, and Poverty.' (8) PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH IN A SOCIETY OF CHANGE AND CRISIS: A METHODOLOGICAL REVIEW, Chairman: Hope Klapper (New York U, NY) & Fred H. Goldner (Queens Coll, City U of New York), 'Public Opinion and Survey Research: A Poor Mix;' Eric Marder, 'The Five Stages of Survey Research.' (7) MOBILIZING PUBLIC OPINION, Chairman: Daniel Yankelovich: a Discussion between Yankelovich, Lowell Beck, & William Ruder. (8) THE SILENT MAJORITY AND SOCIAL ISSUES, Chairman: Mervin D. Field, 'Noisy Pluralism vs the Silent Majority;' William E. Bicker (U of California, Berkeley), 'Welfare-the Transition Issue;' Robert A. Levine, 'The Silent Majority: Neither Simple Nor Simple-Minded.' (9) PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH AND THE MEDIA, Chairman: Herbert E. Krugman: Herbert E. Krugman, 'The Television Generation and the New Research Needs;' Scott Ward (Harvard U, Cambridge, Mass), 'Television Advertising and Children: Two Studies.' (10) PRE-ELECTION SURVEYS: HINDSIGHT AND OUTLOOK, Chairman: Sidney Hollander: Sidney Hollander, 'Implications of the 1970 British Fiasco;' Paul Perry, 'The Turnout Problem in Election Surveys;' Charles Kinsolving, 'Political Polling in a Primary: Sample Attrition and Turnout Prediction;' Lawrence Bown, Charles K. Atkin, Kenneth G. Sheinkopf, & Oguz B. Nayman (U of Wisconsin, Madison & Colorado State U, Fort Collins) 'How Voters React to Electronic Political Advertising: An Investigation of the 1970 Election Campaigns in Wisconsin and Colorado.' (11) HOW CAN THE PUBLIC OPINION PROFESSION AND COMMON CAUSE WORK TOGETHER? Chairman: Barbara Lee: A discussion exploring the role res'ers could play vs soc action org's. (12) THE DRUG SCENE: CURRENT RESEARCH, Chairman : Donald L. Kanter (U of Southern California, Los Angeles): Donald L. Kanter, 'Some Aspects of the Broadcast Anti-Drug Program;' David Checkman, 'A Review of Research on the Causes of Drug Abuse or How Not to Get Turned On;' Lawrence H. Geiger, 'Age, Reported Marijuana Use, and Belief in Some Assumed Negative Effects of the Drug;' Glen D. Mellinger, 'Psychotherapeutic Drug Use Among Adults: A Model for Young Drug Users?' Eric Josephson, Paul Haberman, & Anne Zanes (Columbia U, New York, NY), 'High School Drug Behavior: A Methodological Report.' (13) NEW DIREC- TIONS FOR SURVEY RESEARCH METHODS, Chairman: Ronald Gatty (City U of New York, NY): Ronald Gatty, 'New Directions for Survey Research Methods;' William Belson (London Sch of Econ's, England), 'New Perspectives on Traditional Forms of Survey Research and Analysis;' R. Richard Ritt (Pennsylvania State U, University Park), 'Drawing Actionable Inference from Survey Data.' (14) CHANGING IDEALS, VALUES AND BE- LIEFS, Chairman: Emanuel H. Demby, 'The Shock of Future Shock;' Stephen Pittel, 'The Shock Is Now;' George Harris, 'Psychology Today.' (15) SOCIAL RESEARCH TECHNIQUES IN DEFINING HEALTH PROBLEMS, Chairman: Raymond Fink: Raymond Fink, Sam Shapiro, & Conrad Rosenberg, 'Social Research Techniques in the Study of Poverty and Non-Poverty Groups in Multiphasic Health Testing;' Gerald Sparer & Louise Okada, 'Differential Patterns of Health Service Utilization by Poverty Levels in Eight Urban Neighborhoods;' Jorge Segovia & Jack Elinson (Columbia U, New York, NY) 'What Physicians Think about Physicians in Argentina.' (16) STUDENT AWARD PAPERS, Chairman: Harold H. Kassrjian (U of California, Los Angeles): 1st Prize: Marcus Felson (U of Michigan, Ann Arbor), 'The Social Basis of Political Protest: The Wallace Vote in Districts Outside the South;' 2nd Prize: Ted Bradshaw (U of California, Berkeley), 'The Robustness of Correlation in Survey Research: A Data Simulation.' (17) LUNCHEON ROUND TABLES, Chairman: William L. Nicholls II (U of California, Berkeley): Gene N. Levine (U of California, Los Angeles), 'Research on Ethnic and Racial Groups;' Karen E. Page (U of California, Davis), 'The Changing Role of Women in Society: Research in Progress and Prospect;' Thomas S. Robertson (U of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia), 'Adolescent Consumer Socialization;' Joseph Zelan & Joseph Gusfield (U of California, Berkeley & U of California, San Diego), 'Equality and Authority in Higher Education: The Study of Student Power and Participation; Leo Crespi, 'Public Opinion and the Population Crisis;' Helen M. Crossley, 'Honesty with Respondents and Interviewers;' Matilda B. Paisley & William J. Paisley (Stanford U, Calif), 'Nonexperimental Causal Inference;' Francesco Nicosia (U of California, Berkeley), 'Buying Decision Processes by Consumers and Organizations.' Don Cahalan, ANNUAL ADVI- SORY AAPOR BUSINESS MEETING, concluded the convention. M. Maxfield.

Animal personality is defined by consistent between-individual differences in behaviour through time or across contexts. Behaviour is further organised into broader behavioural dimensions referred to as personality traits (e.g. fearfulness, aggressive- ness or boldness). While animal personality is a relatively new field, researchers have been interested in quantifying and predicting stable behavioural traits or dimensions in domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) for over fifty years. Nonetheless, deciding which personality traits are most relevant or which traits behaviours reflect remains a difficult task for animal (as well as human) personality researchers. Largely, this is because personality is something we infer from behavioural data rather than directly observe, which depends on the conceptual and methodological approach taken. For dogs in particular, the predictive validity of personality assessments has been inconsis- tent, such as in behavioural assessments of shelter dogs. Moreover, there have been a diverse number of traits and behavioural dimensions proposed, with little consensus across studies on which traits are most relevant for describing dog behaviour. This thesis evaluated conceptual and methodological issues of assessing personality and personality traits in dogs. In particular, the papers addressed key aspects of the statistical analysis of behavioural data on dogs for making inferences about personality and personality traits, drawing upon perspectives across both ethology and human psychology. The papers demonstrate three broad results. First, research to understand which personality traits underlie dog behaviour would benefit from moving from largely exploratory-based to hypothesis-driven frameworks. Personality traits in dogs are usually inferred by using exploratory latent variable sta- tistical models, such as principal components analysis, and studies have applied a mix- ture of latent variable models that have differing underlying assumptions. Confirma- tory, reflective latent variable models provide a more powerful framework for testing competing hypotheses about the latent structure of behavioural data in dogs and for verifying the robustness of the derived personality traits. Using data on inter-context aggressive behaviour towards people and dogs in shelter dogs, we found two, corre- lated latent variables: aggressiveness towards people and dogs, respectively. However, these posited traits failed to account for all of the co-variation between aggressive be- haviour across contexts, violating the assumption of local independence. Moreover, in- teractions between aggression contexts and the sex and age of the dogs demonstrated a violation of measurement invariance. That is, sex and age differences in aggressive behaviour could not be simply explained by differences in latent aggressiveness traits. The robustness and reproducibility of other personality traits in dogs could be verified by applying similar approaches to multivariate data. Secondly, dogs do not only differ in how they behave on average (i.e. personality), but in the amount they change their behaviour across time (behavioural plasticity) and the amount of day-to-day fluctuation around their average behaviour (predictability). By applying the framework of behavioural reaction norms, popular within behavioural and evolutionary ecology, we studied these different components of variation in dogs' reactions to meeting unfamiliar people over time at a shelter. Accounting for indi- vidual differences in intra-individual behaviour (i.e. plasticity and predictability) in addition to personality improved the predictive accuracy of our results compared to focusing on personality variation only. The results also highlighted the importance of gathering repeated measurements on individuals when estimating behavioural varia- tion. Specifically, behavioural predictions at the individual level were highly uncertain compared to those at the group-level (aggregating data across dogs), since the amount of data available on each dog individually was often small. Together, these results em- phasised the benefits of longitudinal assessments of dog behaviour in shelters, and the importance of systematic modelling of both inter-individual (i.e. personality) and intra-individual variation in dog behaviour. Thirdly, predominant approaches to conceptualising of animal personality traits are faced with a number of challenges. Inspired by recent work in human psychology, we elucidated how animal personality, and integrated behavioural phenotypes in general, can be re-conceptualised using a network perspective. The network perspective repre- sents the behavioural repertoire of individuals as a system of causally connected, au- tonomous behaviours. Behavioural dimensions or traits are, thus, viewed as emergent patterns of causally related clusters of behaviours, rather than separate underlying variables. We demonstrated the application of network analysis to survey data col- lected on behavioural and motivational characteristics of police patrol and detection dogs. Our analyses emphasised a number of close, functional relationships between variables consistent with previous research on dog personality, as well as unique in- sights from novel network statistics into the organisation of police dog behaviour. We highlighted the merits of this perspective for furthering work on the organisation of behavioural phenotypes and animal personality, and situating this research within work on a diverse range of complex systems across science. In summary, this thesis has drawn upon advancements across ethology and human psychology to present novel directions for understanding personality in dogs. The work will be of benefit to researchers determining which personality traits explain individual differences in dog behaviour and those aiming to predict future dog be- haviour. Lastly, the results should stimulate a greater awareness of the conceptual issues involved in making inferences about personality in dogs and other animals. ; Dyrs personlighet er definert som konsistente forskjeller i atferd mellom individer over tid eller på tvers av ulike sammenhenger, kontekster. Atferden er videre organisert i bredere atferdsdimensjoner som kalles personlighetstrekk (for eksempel fryktsomhet, aggressivitet eller dristighet). Selv om dyrs personlighet er et relativt nytt felt, har forskere vært interessert i å kvantifisere og forutsi stabile atferdsegenskaper eller at- ferdsdimensjoner hos hunder (Canis lupus familiaris) i over femti år. Likevel, å avgjøre hvilke personlighetstrekk som er mest relevante eller hvilke egenskaper en atferd re- flekterer, er fortsatt en vanskelig oppgave for personlighetsforskere på dyr (og mennesker). Stort sett skyldes dette at personlighet er noe vi analyserer utfra atferdsdata i stedet for å observere direkte, og noe som avhenger av den konseptuelle og metodol- ogiske tilnærmingen som er gjort. For spesielt hunder har personlighetsvurderinger ikke gitt konsekvente forutsigelser av hundens atferd, for eksempel i bedømmelser av atferd hos hunder i omplasseringsinstitusjoner (hjelpesentre). Videre har det vært foreslått varierende antall atferdstrekk og atferdsdimensjoner, med liten konsensus på tvers av studier angående hvilke trekk som er mest relevante for å beskrive hundens atferd. Denne doktoravhandlingen evaluerte konseptuelle og metodiske aspekter i forbindelse med vurdering av personlighet og personlighetstrekk hos hunder. Artiklene behandlet viktige aspekter ved den statistiske analysen av atferdsdata fra hunder for å beskrive personlighet og personlighetstrekk, og de benytter perspektiver på tvers av etologi og humanpsykologi. Artiklene viser tre brede resultater. For det første, forskning for å forstå hvilke personlighetstrekk som ligger til grunn for hundens atferd vil ha nytte av å endres fra et hovedsakelig undersøkelsesbasert til et hypotesebasert utgangspunkt. Personlighetstrekk hos hunder er vanligvis ut- ledet ved å bruke statistiske modeller med utforskende latente variable, for eksem- pel prinsipalkomponentanalyse, og studier har benyttet en blanding av modeller med latente variabler som har ulike underliggende forutsetninger. Bekreftende, reflek- terende modeller med latente variabler gir et kraftigere rammeverk for å teste konkur- rerende hypoteser om den latente strukturen av atferdsdata hos hunder, og slike mod- eller kan verifisere robustheten av de utledede personlighetstrekkene. Ved å bruke data om aggressiv atferd i ulike sammenhenger rettet mot mennesker og hunder i omplasseringsinstitusjoner, fant vi to korrelerte latente variabler: aggressivitet mot henholdsvis mennesker og hunder. Disse egenskapene forklarte imidlertid ikke all samvariasjon mellom aggressiv atferd på tvers av sammenhenger, noe som er i strid med antagelsen om lokal uavhengighet. Videre viste interaksjoner mellom aggresjon- skontekster og kjønn og alder hos hundene et brudd på prinsippet om måleinvari- asjon. Det vil si at forskjeller i aggressiv atferd med hensyn på kjønn og alder ikke kunne forklares bare av forskjeller i latente aggressivitetstrekk. Robustheten og repro- duserbarheten av andre personlighetstrekk hos hunder kunne bekreftes ved å anvende liknende tilnærminger til multivariate data. For det andre varierer hundene ikke bare i hvordan de oppfører seg i gjennomsnitt (dvs. personligheten), men i hvor mye de endrer sin atferd over tid (atferdsplas- tisitet) og i hvor store svingninger det er fra dag til dag i forhold til den gjennomsnit- tlige atferden (forutsigbarhet). Ved å ta utgangspunkt i atferdsreaksjonsnormer, som er populært innen atferdsøkologi og evolusjonær økologi, studerte vi disse forskjel- lige variasjonskomponentene i hunders reaksjoner når de møter ukjente mennesker over tid i et omplasseringssenter. Ved å ta hensyn til individuelle forskjeller i intra- individuell atferd (dvs. plastisitet og forutsigbarhet) i tillegg til personlighet, kunne vi forbedre nøyaktigheten i forutsigelsene av resultatene våre sammenliknet med når vi fokuserer kun på personlighetsvariasjon. Resultatene fremhevet også betydningen av å foreta gjentatte målinger på enkeltindivider ved estimering av atferdsvariasjon. Spesielt var atferdsprediksjoner på individnivå svært usikre sammenliknet med dem på gruppenivå (samlet for alle hundene), siden datamengden som var tilgjengelig for hver hund ofte var for liten. Sammen understreket disse resultatene fordelene ved langsgående vurderinger av hundens atferd i omplasseringsinstitusjonene, og betyd- ningen av systematisk modellering av variasjoner i hundens atferd både innen indi- videt (dvs. personlighet) og mellom individer. For det tredje møter de mest vanlige tilnærmingene til konseptualisering av dyrs per- sonlighetstrekk en rekke utfordringer. Inspirert av nylige arbeider innen humanpsykologi belyste vi hvordan dyrs personlighet, og integrerte atferdsfenotyper generelt, kan kon- septualiseres på nytt ved hjelp av et nettverksperspektiv. Nettverksperspektivet består i å analysere individets atferdsrepertoar som et system med kausalt forbundne, au- tonome atferder. Atferdsdimensjoner eller atferdstrekk betraktes således som frem- voksende mønstre av kausalt relaterte atferdsklynger, i stedet for separate under- liggende variabler. Vi demonstrerte anvendelsen av nettverksanalyse for å undersøke data fra skjemaer for atferdstrekk og motivasjonstrekk hos politiets patrulje- og søk- shunder. Våre analyser understreket en rekke tette, funksjonelle relasjoner mellom variabler som er i tråd med tidligere undersøkelser av hunders personlighet, samt unik innsikt ervervet fra ny nettverksstatistikk om hvordan politihunders atferd er organisert. Vi fremhevet fordelene ved dette perspektivet for å fremme arbeid med organisering av atferdsfenotyper og dyrs personlighet, og plassere denne forskningen innen arbeid på et mangfold av ulike komplekse systemer på tvers av vitenskaper. For å summere opp, denne avhandlingen har dratt nytte av fremskritt innen etologi og humanpsykologi for å presentere nye retninger for å forstå personlighet hos hunder. Arbeidet vil være til nytte for forskere som vil avklare hvilke personlighetstrekk som forklarer individuelle forskjeller i hunders atferd og for de som har som mål å forutsi fremtidig atferd hos hunder. Til slutt bør resultatene stimulere til en større bevissthet om de konseptuelle problemene som er involvert når en skal lage utledninger om personlighet hos hunder og andre dyr.

APPROVED ; This thesis, empirically analyses the role of cultural aspects in accounting and finance disciplines from diverse perspectives. It is made up of three distinct research papers. The first paper (chapter 4) primarily investigates the impact of sociocultural factors in underpinning early accounting thought in an ancient civilization (Ceylon-presently known as Sri Lanka). The next two papers maintain cultural aspects in the limelight but shift the focus to the modern corporate world. Precisely, the second paper (chapter 5) examines the role of Chief Executive Officer's (CEO) cultural values in the firm leverage decision. The third paper (chapter 6) extends the work of chapter 5 and proposes that a firm does not associate with only a single culture, which has been the conventional research focus, but that firms operate with a multiplicity of cultures. Therefore chapter 6 empirically analyses the impact of cultural differences among the CEO, board of directors and stakeholders in a firm, on determining its idiosyncratic risk. Therefore, this thesis emphasizes the impact of culture on various accounting and finance aspects from a context ranging from antiquity to modern times. Another notable feature is that chapters 5 and 6 of this thesis, transcend the previous common focus of firm nationality based on country of origin and study cultural influences on corporate decision-making at a granular level, i.e. by examining the cultural values of the key players in a firm (e.g. the CEO, board of directors, stakeholders). Overall, it contributes to the existing literature on the impact of culture in Accounting and Finance outcomes. Chapter 4 goes back in time to the 1st-2nd centuries A.D. in ancient Ceylon (presently Sri Lanka) and employs content analysis method to study the English translations of 122 lithic and other inscriptions during the period from 1st century A.D. to the 16th century A.D. The study refers to an array of accounting and non-accounting practices in the ancient days and finds the existence of well-articulated forms of 'kingship accounting' and 'Buddhist temple accounting' practices that were engraved in rock walls or formations in ancient Ceylon. Furthermore this paper sheds light on the existence of cultural, socio-economic, political and technological infrastructure that underpinned the early accounting system, with special reference to the sociocultural landscape in ancient Ceylon that was largely governed by Buddhist philosophies. The study reveals that sociocultural factors exerted a dual impact, i.e. direct and indirect, on early accounting thought. The sociocultural factors that compelled accounting practices to be undertaken in ancient Buddhist monasteries signifies the direct impact, whilst the indirect impact encompasses the role of Buddhist cultural values in shaping the ancient political, technological (literacy, numerical technology and coinage) and economic landscape, which in turn underpinned early accounting thought. This study is unique as it brings to the fore, the influence of socio-cultural factors that prevailed during the ancient era, in ensuring the continuation of early accounting practices. Following a thorough literature review in a Ceylonese context, the researcher believes that this is among the first attempts to do so. Chapter 5 (and subsequently chapter 6) focuses on cultural implications in a modern corporate setting. Chapter 5, in particular, focuses on the influence of CEO's cultural values on the firm leverage decision. It is well-known that debt can mitigate agency problems between managers and stockholders, by minimizing free cash-flows. However, the implicit factors that might motivate a manager to voluntarily choose debt discipline is barely researched. Chapter 5, therefore, focuses on managerial traits conditioned by national culture and their impact on firm leverage decision. This study is novel as it transcends the previous conventional emphasis on a firms' nationality on the leverage decision by focusing on the CEO's cultural origin and proposes that national cultural values of CEOs distort their perception of costs and benefits of debt. In addition to testing the association between CEO culture and firm leverage, the model is extended to closely examine the same, given three scenarios, i.e. when the existing firm leverage is low, moderate and high. By scrutinizing a sample of 594 CEOs, originating from 14 different nationalities, serving 317 Fortune 500 firms in the U.S., during 2000 to 2015 and by employing quantile panel regression with instrumental variables, the study reveals that high mastery CEOs, unknowingly, are in the pursuit of a target capital structure whilst highly embedded CEOs choose to borrow, irrespective of the current firm leverage. Apparently, high mastery CEOs make capital structure decisions that are more in the interest of shareholders, while the capital structure decisions of highly embedded CEOs might be detrimental to the firm. A direct link between cultural values and leverage, has been detected and confirmed via an analysis of a major exogenous intervention (global financial crisis 2007/08) to the system. By using a sample of non-US CEOs, the study reveals that cultural values are portable. Results remain robust to alternative specifications and procedures to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Academically the findings of this paper open up new paradigms that need to be considered in the area of agency conflicts and monitoring costs. Chapter 6 extends the previous work in Chapter 5 and proposes that a firm does not associate with just a single culture but operates with a multiplicity of cultures. Owing to the recent public pressure to increase diversity on boards, firms increasingly employ foreign nationals as board of directors and/or CEOs. As the employees, investors and other stakeholders are mostly local, how would they interact with a foreign CEO and/or board of directors? More importantly how would this interaction among a multiplicity of cultures affect the firm idiosyncratic risk? Whilst the cultural impact on firm outcomes has remained in the spotlight for the last decade or so, the interaction of a multiplicity of cultures within a firm and its impact on corporate outcomes is rarely studied. The study initially employs Feasible Generalized Least Squares Method (FGLS) and then the Dynamic Panel System Generalized Method of Momentum (DPS-GMM) to analyse a sample of 1,190 firms from 12 European countries, over 14 years from 2005 to 2018. The findings reveal that the cultural distance between the CEO and stakeholders, on firm risk, appear to remain positive and strongly significant, regardless of endogeneity correction and various other robustness tests, inferring that the greater cultural distances and the resulting disarray of preferences of CEOs and stakeholder groups may result with CEOs making unpredictable decisions, ultimately increasing performance volatility. CEO' board cultural distance evinces a negative association, which proves statistically significant in most of the endogeneity corrected regression models, implying that a greater distance between the CEO and the board of directors is beneficial to a company as the board will play a more independent and active role in preventing the management from participating in value destroying risky ventures and making strategic decisions single-handedly. Within-board cultural distances generate mixed results. Moreover, to allow for the asymmetries between cultural distances and firm risk, quantile panel regression is employed. Whilst the first two cultural spheres reinforce the previous findings, within-board cultural distances appear to reduce stock performance volatility, in firms with moderate idiosyncratic risks, where the same is amplified in least volatile and most volatile firms, implying that the extra social and human capital that would be brought in to the firm by culturally diverse directors, would help to position the firm better in terms of managing risks, only in moderately uncertain environments. The results of this study remain robust to alternative specifications and endogeneity concerns. To the best of my knowledge, this paper is among the first, to investigate the co-existence of a multiplicity of cultures within a firm and its impact on firm performance volatility. Overall, the objective of this doctoral thesis is to improve the existing knowledge on the subtle and understated influences of cultural differences and resulting human behaviour on business outcomes.

An efficient capital market hypothesis says that markets that efficiently react quickly to relevant information. In an efficient market, the market will quickly react to new information coming in so that a new equilibrium price will be reached quickly. In practice in the capital market phenomena appear that show deviations that are contrary to the concept of efficient capital markets (market anomaly). The pupose of this research to investors because Investors need information to assess the risks involved in their investments and to estimate returns on the investment. With the information obtained, investors can determine the position of selling, buying or holding a stock. These anomalies including the January Effect, Day of The Week Effect and Size Effect.The data used in this study are secondary data from companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the study period from January 2013 to December 2017. The samples used in this study were 55 issuers with purposive sampling method. The statistical analysis used in this study is by multiple regression analysis with dummy variables for January effects and Day of The Week effect while different T tests for firm size effects.The results of hypothesis testing with multiple linear regression analysis with Independent variables, namely January Efeect, Day Of The Week Effect, and Size Effect and Dependent variables namely Stock Return. Based on the results of multiple linear regression test analysis using dummy variables showing that the January Effect of each variable has a significant influence on Stock return and on the day of the week effect on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday also has a significant effect on stock returns. While the size effet based on the results of the independent t-test on the size effect variable of a company has a significant effect (<0.05) which means that the size of a company has an impact on a company's stock return, where the company is measured based on total asset. 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Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 379-402.Rathinasamy, R.S dan Krishna G. Mantripragada., 1996, "The January Size Effect Revisited: Is it A Case of Risk Mismeasurement?" Journal of Financial and Strategic Decisions. Vol:9 No. 3R. Christie-David and M. Chaudhry., 2000, "January Anomalies: Implications for the Market's Incorporation of News", The Financial review, Vol:3 p.79-96Santoso, Singgih., 2004, SPSS Versi 10: Mengolah Data Statistik Secara Profesional, PT. Elex Media Komputindo, Jakarta.Sharpe, W.F., Alexander, G.J, and Bailey, J.V., 1995, Investments, Fifth Edition, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.Strong, N. (1992). Modeling Abnormal Return: A review article. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 19 (4), 533-553.Suryawijaya, Marwan Asri dan Faisal Arief Setiawan. 1998, "Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Politik Dalam Negeri", Kelola, No. 18/VIIWong, M. K., Ho, C. M., Dollery, B. (2007). An Empirical Analysis of the Anomalous Stock Market Behavior of Small Firms in January: Empirical Test for Year-End Tax Effect. University of New England.

La idea de las redes ad-hoc (MANET) nace con el fin de proporcionar servicios de comunicaciones sin el soporte de infraestructura alguna. Típicamente, el estudio de este tipo de redes ha sido orientado a aplicaciones militares o a escenarios de desastres naturales donde la infraestructura es escasa, inexistente o no funcional. Sin embargo, en los últimos años, con el desarrollo de la tecnología inalámbrica, los investigadores han vislumbrado la oportunidad de prestar nuevos servicios de comunicación entre usuarios de electrónica de consumo. Así, los esfuerzos de la comunidad investigadora en este campo se han centrado en el diseño y evaluación de algoritmos y protocolos para implementar comunicaciones eficientes en escenarios donde los nodos móviles colaboran y comparten recursos para proveer funcionalidades usuales en las redes con infraestructura. En ese contexto, las redes móviles ad-hoc (MANETs) y las redes vehiculares adhoc (VANETs) han sido un tópico de extensa investigación por muchos años, con un sinnúmero de propuestas en la literatura para hacer frente a los desafíos planteados principalmente por la movilidad de los dispositivos. Muchos autores han defendido las MANETs como un elemento crucial para el futuro de los servicios de comunicación ubicuos. De igual forma, el desarrollo de las tecnologías de comunicaciones inalámbricas nos permite vislumbrar que en un futuro cercano las VANETs se convertirán en una extensión del Internet cableado, allanando el camino a un conjunto de nuevos servicios de comunicaciones. Esas visiones requieren medios para tornar este tipo de redes en ambientes de comunicación más robustos, capaces de soportar la operación de sistemas distribuidos que cursen grandes cantidades de información multimedia. Desde esta perspectiva, investigadores del Instituto Tecnológico de Massachusetts (MIT) propusieron una capa de virtualización, denominada Virtual Node Layer (VNLayer), con procedimientos para que nodos móviles físicos emulasen colaborativamente nodos virtuales que podrían ser direccionados como servidores en localizaciones conocidas. Esta aproximación se demostró conveniente para facilitar el desarrollo de software de aplicación en entornos tradicionales de MANETs. Esta tesis analiza las potencialidades de la virtualización para brindar nuevos servicios de comunicación en ambientes MANETs y VANETs, diseñando, desarrollando y evaluando nuevos mecanismos en la capa de virtualización para alcanzar este objetivo. Así, en primera instancia, presentamos un grupo de mejoras y nuevos mecanismos orientados a incrementar el rendimiento de la capa de virtualización en entornos MANETs de mayor movilidad y con aplicaciones más demandantes, otorgándole flexibilidad para ajustarse a las necesidades de los usuarios, y una mayor robustez y rapidez para reaccionar ante los fallos provocados por la movilidad de los nodos o las condiciones adversas del medio inalámbrico (pérdida de paquetes de control debido a colisiones, ruido, etc.). De igual forma, proponemos una serie de mejoras a la versión virtualizada del protocolo de encaminamiento AODV para aprovechar las nuevas características de la capa de virtualización, así como nuevos procedimientos para evitar la pérdida de paquetes debido a la movilidad de los nodos físicos que le dan soporte. Ya en el campo de las VANETs, este trabajo introduce por primera vez el concepto de la capa de virtualización en estos ambientes. Para ello, hemos diseñado varios procesos que permiten (i) adaptar la forma y ubicación de las regiones cubiertas por los nodos virtuales a las condiciones de los planos de las calles y vías, propias del entorno urbano, y (ii) ofrecer una reacción más rápida y robusta de los nodos virtuales frente la alta variabilidad y movilidad de los vehículos y las condiciones de mayor pérdida de paquetes de las redes vehiculares. Adicionalmente, diseñamos un nuevo protocolo de encaminamiento que aprovecha las ventajas ofrecidas por la capa de virtualización en los entornos vehiculares para obtener un mejor rendimiento que algunos protocolos presentes en la literatura. Nuestras contribuciones a la capa de virtualización, tanto en el campo de las MANETs como en el de las VANETs, son validadas a través de una serie de experimentos de simulación, desarrollados en diferentes escenarios y aplicaciones, y contrastadas con varios protocolos relevantes en la literatura. Los resultados muestran que los nuevos mecanismos que hemos implementado superan notablemente el rendimiento de la VNLayer original, al tiempo que aseguran mejores prestaciones en las comunicaciones que varios algoritmos relevantes en el campo de los escenarios propuestos, asegurando una buena tasa de entrega de paquetes gracias a la efectiva explotación de las comunicaciones multisalto. ; Ad-hoc networks arose with the aim of providing communication services without the support of any fixed infrastructure. Typically, the study of these kind of networks has been focused on military applications or natural disaster scenarios where infrastructure is scarce, nonexistent or nonfunctional. However, in recent years, with the development of wireless technology, researchers have envisioned the opportunity to provide new communication services among users of consumer electronics. Thus, the efforts of the research community in this field have focused on the design and evaluation of algorithms and protocols to implement efficient communications in scenarios where mobile nodes collaborate and share resources to provide functionalities which are common in networks with infrastructure. In this context, mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs) and vehicular ad-hoc networks (VANETs) have been a topic of extensive research for many years, with countless proposals in the literature dealing with the challenges raised mainly by the mobility of devices. Many authors have defended MANETs as a crucial element for the future of pervasive communication services. Similarly, the development of wireless communication technologies allows us to foresee that VANETs will become an extension of the wired Internet in the near future, paving the way to a set of new communication services. These visions require means to turn this kind of networks into more robust communication environments, capable of supporting the operation of distributed systems carrying large amounts of multimedia information. From this perspective, researchers from the Massachusetts Institute Technology (MIT) presented a layer of virtualization, called the Virtual Node Layer (VNLayer), with procedures for physical mobile nodes to collaboratively emulate virtual nodes that could be addressed as server devices in known locations. This approach has proven suitable for easy development of application software in traditional MANET environments. In this thesis we are interested in analyzing the potential of the virtualization to provide new communication services in MANET and VANET environments, designing, developing and testing new mechanisms within the virtualization layer to achieve this goal. So, firstly, we present a set of improvements and new mechanisms aimed at increasing the performance of the virtualization layer in MANET environments with higher mobility and more demanding applications, giving it flexibility to adapt to the needs of users, and greater robustness and speed to react to failures caused by the mobility of nodes or adverse conditions of the wireless medium (control packet loss due to collisions, noise, etc.). Likewise, we propose a set of enhancements to the virtualized version of the routing protocol AODV to exploit new features of the virtualization layer, as well as new procedures to avoid packet losses due to the mobility of physical nodes that support it. To the best of our knowledge, this thesis is the first study to introduce the concept of virtualization layer in VANET environments. To do this, we designed several processes that allow (i) adapt the shape and location of the regions covered by the virtual nodes to the conditions of the layouts of the streets and roads, typical of urban environment, and (ii) provide a faster and more robust response of the virtual nodes to deal to high variability and mobility of vehicles, and the major conditions for packet loss in vehicular networks. Additionally, we design a new routing protocol that takes advantage of the virtualization layer to deliver better performance than recent protocols in the literature. Our contributions to the virtualization layer, both in the field of MANETs as in VANETs, are validated through a set of simulation experiments, developed in different scenarios and applications, and compared with several relevant protocols representative of the current state-of-the-art. The results of simulation experiments conducted in MANET and VANET environments show that the new mechanisms we have implemented significantly outperformthe original VNLayer, while ensuring best performance in communications that the most relevant algorithms in the field of the proposed scenarios. A good packet delivery rate is assured thanks to the effective operation of multi-hop communications.

Iceland s population of approximately fifty thousand inhabitants did not change appreciably from the end of the settlement period in the late twelfth century until the mid-nineteenth century because of the climate and limited technology in agriculture and fisheries. In fact, periodic decreases resulted from climatic fluctuations, natural disasters and epidemics, since this was a primitive rural community of farmers and fishermen. The weakness of the urban community was so apparent that when the royal monopoly on domestic trade was abolished by law in 1788, new migrants from selected villages to urban communities1 were offered public subsidies, such as free lots and tax dispensation for twenty years. Despite this government intervention, the growth of the urban population, especially in the capital city, did not manifest until early in the twentieth century following technological developments, such as the advent of motor vessels, banks, and certain infrastructure investments. That is probably because the Danish authorities and Icelanders were not unanimous in their policies and actions. The growth of the urban population was followed by a decline in the rural population. This trend increased after World War II, and at the beginning of the 1980s, the population of the urban areas outside the capital area2 began to decline as well, especially those populations that were farthest away from Reykjavík and Akureyri, the second-largest urban community outside the capital area. The present research s objective is to investigate whether transportation improvements affect inter-regional migration in Iceland. This thesis is divided into three main parts. First, a brief introduction describes the development of the transportation system in Iceland, especially the road network, and geographic population patterns in the twentieth century. The second part covers fundamental theories of transportation economics and spatial economics, especially regarding transport demand, the geographic pattern of housing prices, theories of industrial location, and interregional migration. The third part reports on an empirical investigation that is in line with the objective of the thesis. Many factors motivate migration. Geographic differentials in labour market conditions were among the first factors addressed by economic theory in the context of spatial economics and were still among the central factors when amenities, local factors of value offered free or relatively inexpensively to the local population, were included several years ago. Amenities include natural resources, public services and social activities, while negative amenities or dis-amenities include local phenomena, attributes, incidents or threats, including crime and pollution that decrease the welfare of the local population without compensation. One theory has suggested amenities compensate for lower wages; since people tend to like places with good weather conditions, beautiful scenery, and other amenities, these places tend to generate an excess supply of labour, and wages decrease, while wages are higher where amenities are more limited. The New Economic Geography is the most recent theory covering interregional migration, where the core-periphery model is central. According to the model, the agglomeration economies are among the main reasons for rural-to-urban migration, through higher real wages. Moreover, lifetime earnings instead of present wages are addressed as more relevant. Uncertainty is included as well. One version of the core-periphery model includes social capital and traffic congestion. Transportation economics is a large field within economics. Here, transport demand is relevant to the study topic so the theoretical presentation of transportation economics will be devoted to that only. Unlike many others types of demand, transportation demand is a derived demand since it is the demand for any other goods that is, people travel to work, trade, and go shopping. Otherwise, transportation demand is comparable to demand for other values or goods where price, income, and the price of supplementary and complementary goods play a central role. The dissertation s empirical contribution will be divided into three parts and therefore classified into three separate chapters. First, we investigate the relationship between transportation improvements and local housing prices because housing prices reflect the value of locations. Second, we measure whether and to what degree rural residents value agglomeration and access to a central business district (CBD)3. Finally, we examine whether transportation improvements affect interregional migration. The empirical part of the study is based on data from Iceland that covers annual averages for Iceland s 79 municipalities for nearly two decades the period from 1981-2006. Many municipalities were merged during this period with the result that the relevant data for all the years were classified according to the number of municipalities in the year 2006 in order to maintain comparability of data. Panel data models are implemented for analysis. They combine the analysis of cross section and time series simultaneously that is an analysis of number of individuals or municipalities over time. One can choose between fixed and random effect in the analysis of panel data, where the coefficients of the fixed effect model include a variation within municipalities, while coefficients of random effect include both within and between variations. The estimation of the relationship between transportation improvements and housing prices is based on a relatively new interpretation of Johan Heinrich von Thünen s (1783-1850) theory regarding land rent: housing prices tend to be highest in the centre of a CBD because of the significance of the market, and they decrease for every unit of distance from the centre. However, the theory also suggests that transportation improvements between a CBD and a rural area increase housing prices in the rural areas because of easier access to the CBD. Where the variation of transportation improvements is to be found between all municipalities and Reykjavík, a model of fixed effect was found to be relevant. The analysis of Iceland confirms that the relationship between transportation improvements and housing prices is non-linear that is, the marginal impact, which is largest in the municipalities adjacent to the CBD, decreases as the distance between the municipality and the CBD increases. This result shows that the impact of transportation improvements on local housing prices increases marginally as the distance between a district and a CBD decreases. Several other known factors, such as the supply of housing, had an expected negative impact on housing prices, while the number of rooms, balconies, garages, and parking had positive impacts. Until the present study, an analysis of this theory had not been implemented on an entire country. Along with heterogeneous marginal impact, these were the major contributions of this particular empirical study. The value of access was estimated by testing whether the spatial disparity of housing prices in Iceland, especially the difference between CBDs and rural areas, had changed during the past two decades. If it had changed, we tested whether the change was a result of increased agglomeration of economies or a result of changing preferences for access over amenity values. Again, the analysis is based on a modern version of von Thünen s theory concerning the forces behind the spatial disparity of housing prices, along with theories of agglomeration economies. Now, a model of random effect, returning coefficients including both within and between variations, was relevant since local amenities have to be considered in an evaluation of access and agglomeration economies. The results suggest that the spatial disparity of housing prices changed in favour of CBDs in Iceland and that changed preferences in favour of access over amenities were responsible that is, access became relatively more valuable. These changes were also due to increased agglomeration economies, but further inspection shows that the differences in housing prices between Reykjavík and the closest neighbouring municipalities decreased, despite previous findings. Weak evidence suggests that this decreased difference could be due to counter-urbanisation, a relatively new phenomenon in which certain types of urban citizens move from urban areas to rural areas within a 120-kilometre radius. This phenomenon has been detected both in North America and Europe. The many reasons for this phenomenon can generally be classified into economic factors and changed preferences such as proximity to wild nature (absence of pollution) and traditional farming. In the present study, as in the previous one, several other known factors have had an expected impact on housing prices. These factors include labour income, supply of housing, housing age, dwelling size, number of rooms per dwelling, balconies, garages, parking, and number of dwellings in the same house. Finally, the impact of transportation improvements on interregional migration was tested. The empirical model is based on the neo-classical Harris-Todaro model. The results suggest that geographic differentials in labour market conditions, such as wages and unemployment, play a leading role in explaining interregional migration, but the supply of housing and transportation improvements also affects interregional migration. While the supply of housing seemed to have had a positive impact on interregional migration, transportation improvements between the rural and urban areas did not have a homogeneous impact on interregional migration in the relevant regions, where it was negative towards its closest regions of the rural area and positive towards regions farther away. The first result is in line with the theory of the New Economic Geography (or the Core-Periphery Model), suggesting that a transportation improvement between two different regions would result in a net flow of residents from the smaller to the larger region, due to better market access and agglomeration economies. Certain types of industries (firms in monopolistic competition) will disappear from the smaller region and grow in the larger region. The latter is in line with the Disequilibrium and Harris-Todaro models, suggesting that transportation improvements lead to positive net inflows of migrants because of higher real wages following lower transport costs. Since the overall results indicate that selected factors are missing in the model, the analysis was repeated for men and women separately. The results then showed that the model was better in explaining the migration behaviour of women rather than men. The condition of the labour market seemed to matter more to women than men. This is a logical result to some extent, since it has been shown in other studies that the gender wage gap is larger in rural areas of Iceland than in urban areas. The supply of housing was affecting the migration patterns of both genders, while travel time, surprisingly, did not show any significance. Weak results for the migration pattern of men fuelled the idea that it should be tested against the migration pattern of women. Thus, if women would leave for better income, according to Gary Becker s results that show singles are generally less well off than married people and other couples, the expected future welfare of single men would be lowered. With this in mind, the most logical response by single men would be to follow single women, since men are indifferent regarding other potential factors affecting migration. A new variable for reflecting changes in the local gender ratio (number of women divided by number of men) in the previous period was added to the model and confirmed the hypothesis. Moreover, travel time also became significant for men, and the overall robustness of the model increased. Therefore, travel time seems to impact the interregional pattern of men but not women. ; Hin mikla fjölgun íbúa á höfuðborgarsvæðinu og fækkun til sveita á Íslandi var tilefni þessarar rannsóknar. Þjóðinni fjölgaði lítið fram á miðja 19. öld, en íbúafjöldi sveiflaðist öldum saman í kringum 50.000. Miðað við ríkjandi tæknistig virðast landbúnaður og sjávarútvegur ekki hafa geta brauðfætt fleiri íbúa og sveiflur í veðurfari, náttúruhamfarir og farsóttir lögðu grunninn að sveiflum í fjölda íbúa þannig að ekki var stór munur á íbúafjölda frá lokum landnámsaldarinnar fram á miðja 19. öld, eftir því sem komist verður næst. Þetta var frumstætt sveitasamfélag og mikill meirihluti bjó í strjálbýli. Myndun þéttbýlis var svo veik á Íslandi að sett voru lög árið 1788, þegar verslun var gefin frjálsari4, um styrki til þeirra sem settust að í völdum kaupstöðum þ.e. Reykjavík, Grundarfirði, Ísafirði, Akureyri, Eskifirði og Vestmannaeyjum. Styrkirnir fólust í ókeypis lóðum og 20 ára undanþágu frá sköttum svo eitthvað sé nefnt. Það var samt ekki fyrr en snemma á 20. öldinni eftir vélvæðinguna, fjárfestingu í innviðum, stofnun banka og annarra stofnana, að fólki fer að fækka til sveita og fjölga í þéttbýli um land allt en mest á höfuðborgarsvæðinu. Það kann að vera vegna þess að framan af voru ráðandi öfl ekki einhuga um eflingu þéttbýlis. Vöxtur þess varð síðan mjög ör eftir lok seinni heimstyrjaldarinnar og í upphafi 9. áratugarins fór íbúum að fækka í þéttbýlum utan höfuðborgarsvæðisins, einkum þeim sem fjærst voru Reykjavík og Akureyri. Rannsóknin er í þremur megin hlutum. Fyrst er stuttur inngangur sem varpar ljósi á hvernig samgöngukerfið, þó aðallega vegakerfið, íbúaþróun einstakra landsvæða og búferlaflutningar á Íslandi þróuðust á 20. öldinni. Þar á eftir kemur stór kafli um helstu kenningar og líkön innan samgönguhagfræði og svæðahagfræði. Innan svæðahagfræði er einkum horft til landfræðilegs breytileika á fasteignaverði, staðsetningar fyrirtækja og búferlaflutninga. Að lokum kemur hluti sem segir frá þremur mismunandi reynslurannsóknum (e. empirical studies). Samkvæmt kenningum hagfræðinnar hefur margt áhrif á búferlaflutninga. Oftast eru aðstæður á vinnumarkaði nefndar en skynvirði verður áberandi á síðari tímum. Skynvirði (e. amenity value) felst í staðbundnum gæðum sem auka velferð almennings án þess að hann borgi fyrir það markaðsvirði. Ýmis náttúrugæði, niðurgreidd og endurgjaldslaus þjónusta eða hreinlega félagsstarf hefur verið flokkað undir skynvirði. Þá hafa fræðimenn talað um neikvætt skynvirði (e. disamenity). Það eru staðbundnir þættir sem draga úr velferð íbúanna án þess að þeir fái fyrir það bætur. Glæpir og mengun hafa verið taldir þar á meðal. Athyglisverðar eru kenningar sem gengið hafa út á að laun séu almennt lægri á stöðum þar sem skynvirði er hátt. Það er útskýrt þannig að fólk laðist að stöðum sem bjóða upp á gott veðurfar eða önnur endurgjaldslaus gæði. Það eykur framboð vinnuafls og laun lækka. Að sama skapi eru laun óvenju há þar sem skynvirði er lágt. Nýjastar eru kenningar nýju- svæðahagfræðinnar (e. New Economic Geography), en þaðan er kjarna- jaðarlíkanið ættað. Þar á borgarhagræði stóran þátt í að laða íbúa úr sveit til borgar með hærri launum. Þá er einnig lögð meiri áhersla á ævitekjur fremur en laun á hverjum tíma. Einnig er svigrúm fyrir áhættu. Öll óvissa um afkomu dregur íbúa til svæða þar sem afkomuöryggi er meira. Í einu þessara líkana er félagsauði og umferðarþunga fundinn staður. Samgönguhagfræði er stórt svið. Hér er það eftirspurn eftir samgöngum sem tengdist viðfangsefni ritgerðarinnar og fræðilegum bakgrunni hennar því gerð skil. Það sem einkennir eftirspurn eftir samgöngum er að hún er afleidd þ.e. hún er afleiðing af eftirspurn eftir öðrum gæðum. Fólk ferðast í þeim tilgangi að versla og sækja vinnu og afþreyingu svo eitthvað sé nefnt. Að öðru leyti lýtur eftirspurn eftir samgöngum sömu lögmálum og eftirspurn eftir öðrum gæðum þar sem eigið verð, verð stuðnings- og staðkvæmdarvara og tekjur neytenda spila stórt hlutverk. Í þessari rannsókn var ætlunin að mæla hvort samgöngubætur hefðu áhrif á búferlaflutninga og hvernig. Þetta var gert í þremur skrefum. Fyrst með því að skoða áhrif samgöngubóta á fasteignaverð, þar sem fasteignaverð endurspeglar virði staða og staðsetninga. Í öðru lagi að meta þróun landfræðilegs breytileika fasteingaverðs og hvort í því fælist þróun á borgarhagræði og virði aðgengis að höfuðborginni. Að lokum meta áhrif samgöngubóta á búferlaflutninga með beinum hætti. Reynslurannsóknir ritgerðarinnar byggðu á gögnum frá Íslandi yfir öll sveitarfélög á landinu (79) í nærri tvo áratugi. Reiknuð voru ársmeðaltöl fyrir öll sveitarfélögin. Mörg sveitarfélög voru sameinuð á þessu tímabili en til að gæta samræmis voru allar tölur reiknaðar upp fyrir 79 sveitarfélög líkt og á síðasta ári í gagnasafninu, árið 2006. Líkönum fyrir tvívíð gögn (e. panel data) var beitt við greiningarnar. Þau greina líkön með þversniðs- og tímaraðagögn samtímis þ.e. yfir fjölda einstaklinga eða sveitarfélaga í mörg ár. Í greiningum tvívíðra gagna er í megin atriðum hægt að velja á milli líkans með föstum áhrifum annars vegar og tilviljunarkenndum áhrifum hins vegar. Líkan með föstum áhrifum skilar stuðlum sem endurspegla breytileika innan sveitarfélaga eingöngu, meðan líkan með tilviljunarkenndum áhrifum skilar breytileika innan sveitarfélaga og milli þeirra samtímis. Við mat á áhrifum samgöngubóta á fasteignaverð var stuðst við kenningu og líkan þýsks hagfræðings, Johan Heinrich von-Thünen (1783-1850), um landfræðilegt mynstur fasteignaverðs, þar sem það hefur tilhneigingu til að lækka út frá borgarmiðju vegna mikilvægis markaðarins. Þar sem breytileika á samgöngubótum var að finna á milli allra sveitarfélaga og Reykjavíkur skilaði líkan með föstum áhrifum niðurstöðum sem svöruðu rannsóknarspurningunni. Niðurstaða greiningarinnar staðfesti að samgöngubætur milli landsbyggðarinnar og höfuðborgarinnar hafa áhrif á fasteignaverð á landsbyggðinni til hækkunar. Sérstaða rannsóknarinnar fólst einkum í tvennu: Þessari greiningu hefur aldrei verið beitt á heilt land með þessum hætti og sýnt var fram á að áhrifin væru ekki einsleit. Þau voru mest næst höfuðborginni en fjara síðan smám saman út eftir því sem fjær dregur. Það gefur til kynna að áhrif samgöngubóta eru líklegastar til hafa mest áhrif á fasteignaverð ef þær eru sem næst höfuðborgarsvæðinu. Ýmsir aðrir vel þekktir þættir höfðu áhrif á fasteignaverð eins og búist var við. Þeir helstu voru að framboð íbúða hafði neikvæð áhrif á verð íbúða á meðan stærð þeirra, fjöldi herbergja, svalir, bílskúr og bílastæði höfðu marktæk jákvæð áhrif á verð þeirra. Þá var aðgengi dreifbýlis að borgum metið. Það var gert með því að kanna hvort munur á fasteignaverði í Reykjavík og annarra landsvæða hafi aukist á síðastliðnum 20 árum. Ef það var tilfellið, var ætlunin að meta hvort það fælist í auknu virði á aðgengi vegna breyttra óska almennings um aukið aðgengi að fjölbreyttu úrvali þjónustu og atvinnu eða aukins þéttbýlishagræðis (e. agglomeration economies) vegna aukinnar almennrar hægræðingar af nábýli við annað fólk og fyrirtæki. Að þessu sinni var stuðst við nútíma útfærslu á kenningum von-Thünens um drifkrafta á landfræðilegum breytileika fasteignaverðs og kenninga um þéttbýlishagræði. Nú var líkan með tilviljunarkenndum áhrifum viðeigandi, þar sem aðgengi togast á við skynvirði en slík verðmæti mælast aðallega með breytileika gagnanna milli sveitarfélaga og breytileiki innan þeirra er síðan nauðsynlegur til að gefa fullnægjandi mynd af virði borgarhagræðis. Í greiningunni kom fram að munurinn á fasteignaverði í Reykjavík og Akureyri gagnvart öðrum sveitarfélögum hafði aukist á síðustu árum. Sýnt var fram á að óskir almennings um búsetukosti höfðu verið undirliggjandi þáttur og breyst stóru þjónustukjörnunum tveimur í hag þ.e. aðgengi sem borgir veita hefur orðið hlutfallsega verðmætara heldur en skynvirði sem dreifbýlið hefur í ríkara mæli. Þá kom fram vísbending um að þéttbýlishagræði hafði átt sinn þátt í þróuninni. Við nánari skoðun kom í ljós að munurinn á fasteignaverði í Reykjavík og nálægum sveitarfélögum hafði verið að minnka á sama tíma, þrátt fyrir áðurnefnda þróun. Vísbendingar komu fram um að búferlaflutningar úr borg í sveit hafi verið undirliggjandi áhrifaþáttur þess. Það er almenn tilhneiging til flutnings borgarbúa aftur til sveitar eða smærri bæja í nágrenni borganna, eða í u.þ.b. 120 kílómetra radius frá miðju hennar sem orðið hefur vart bæði annars staðar í Evrópu og einnig í Bandaríkjunum. Ástæður hennar eru ýmist af efnhagslegum hvötum eða af breyttri forgangsröðun í lífi fólks eins og óskir um meiri nálægð við náttúruna eða nánari tengsl við lífið í sveitinni. Í þessari rannsókn komu fram ýmsir aðrir áhrifaþættir fasteingaverðs, margir þeir sömu og í fyrri rannsókninni. Þar má nefna atvinnutekjur, framboð íbúða, aldur og stærð þeirra, fjöldi herbergja, svalir, bílastæði og bílskúr, fjöldi íbúa. Að lokum voru áhrif samgöngubóta á búferlaflutninga metin með beinum hætti. Stuðst var við klassískt búferlaflutningalíkan. Niðurstaða rannsóknarinnar benti til að aðstæður á vinnumarkaði, atvinnutekjur og atvinnuleysi, skiptu mestu máli varðandi búferlaflutninga milli sveitarfélaga á Íslandi. Einnig sást að framboð íbúða laðaði fólk að. Þá skipti aðgengi að sterkum þjónustukjörnum nokkru máli og þess vegna geta samgöngubætur milli höfuðborgarsvæðsins og landsbyggðar hægt á eða jafnvel snúið óhagstæðri íbúaþróun við. Það gæti líka magnað óhagstæða íbúaþróun vegna þess að áhrifin voru þau sömu allsstaðar; því nær sem samgöngubótin var Reykjavík því líklegri var hún til að valda óhagstæðum búferlaflutningum í nærliggjandi sveitarfélagi. Í ákveðinni fjarlægð snérist þetta við þannig að samgöngubætur milli Reykjavíkur og fjarlægari sveitarfélaga stuðluðu að hagstæðum búferlaflutningum til þeirra. Fyrra samhengið er í samræmi við kenningar nýju- svæðahagfræðinnar (kjarnajaðarslíkansins) og kveður á um að samgöngubótin leiði til þess að ákveðin framleiðsla og þjónusta leggist af vegna nálægðar við sterkan kjarna. Hið seinna í samræmi við ójafnvægislíkanið þar sem samgöngubótin hefur tilhneigingu til að auka kaupmátt launa (raunlaun) utan borgarinnar vegna lækkandi verðlags í kjölfar lægri flutningskostnaðar og draga þannig úr brottflutningi eða jafnvel draga fólk að vegna hærri launa. Þar sem niðurstöðurnar gáfu til kynna að ennþá vantaði mikilvæga áhrifaþætti inn í líkanið var gerð tilraun til að meta það á ný og skipta gagnasafninu upp á milli karla og kvenna. Þá kom í ljós að líkanið skýrði miklu betur út búferlaflutninga kvenna heldur en karla. Aðstæður á vinnumarkaði virtust skipta konur miklu meira máli en karla. Það er á vissan hátt rökrétt niðurstaða þar sem sýnt hefur verið fram á að launamunur kynja er minni á höfuðborgarsvæðinu en utan þess. Framboð á íbúðum hafði áhrif á bæði kynin, en ferðatími engin áhrif. Þar sem þetta líkan virtist vera óvenju lélegt í að skýra búferlaflutninga karla vaknaði sú hugmynd að kanna hvort brottflutningar kvenna hefðu áhrif á brottflutning karla. Sú tilgáta vaknaði á grundvelli kenninga Gary Beckers um að hagsæld fólks í sambúð eða hjónabandi sé meiri heldur en einhleypra; þar með ef konur flyttu brott þá dragi úr líkum karla á að komast í sambúð. Það var gert með því að kanna hvort karlar flyttu í kjölfar kvenna til þess að auka líkurnar á sambúð/hjónabandi. Það var staðfest þegar líkanið var keyrt aftur með viðeigandi breytingum. Við þetta hafði ferðatími marktæk áhrif á búferlaflutninga karla og niðurstaðan almennt áreiðanlegri. Það virðist því vera þannig að samgöngubætur hafi frekar áhrif á búferlaflutninga karla en ekki kvenna.