Suchergebnisse

We run an experiment to investigate the emergence of excess and synchronised trading activity leading to market crashes. Although the environment clearly favours a buy-and-hold strategy, we observe that subjects trade too much, which is detrimental to their wealth given the implemented market impact (known to them). We find that preference for risk leads to higher activity rates and that price expectations are fully consistent with subjects' actions. In particular, trading subjects try to make profits by playing a buy low, sell high strategy. Finally, we do not detect crashes driven by collective panic, but rather a weak but significant synchronisation of buy activity.

Zentrales Thema der Publikation "The Reichsbank and Public Finance in Germany 1924 – 1933. A Study of the Politics of Economics during the Great Depression" von Harold James (Frankfurt/Main: Fritz Knapp Verlag, 1985) ist die Geldpolitik der Reichsbank zwischen 1924 und 1933. Der Autor, der sich der "revisionistischen" Richtung um Knut Borchardt verbunden fühlt, sieht in der expansiven Geldpolitik der USA die Hauptursache dafür, dass es in Deutschland in der zweiten Hälfte der 20er Jahre inflationäre Symptome gab: Die mit dem Dawes – Abkommen von 1924 verknüpften ausländischen - vorwiegend amerikanischen - Anleihen bestimmten die Ausgabenpolitik der öffentlichen Hände; die Reichsbank hatte demgegenüber nur begrenzte Einwirkungsmöglichkeiten. Nach Harold James hatte in der Zeit der Großen Krise die Reichbank unter ihrem Präsidenten Hans Luther mitnichten eine rigide Deflationspolitik betrieben. Vielmehr gab es seit dem Sommer 1931, nach Beginn des vom amerikanischen Präsidenten Hoover angeregten einjährigen Reparationsmoratorium, eine bemerkenswerte Kreditausweitung, die allerdings nicht direkt auf Arbeitsbeschaffung, sondern auf die Förderung bestimmter privater Investitionen abzielte. Den weitaus größten Posten machten hierbei die die "Russengeschäfte" aus (die Kreditierung von Exportaufträgen aus der Sowjetunion), mit deren Hilfe nicht nur etwa 150.000 zusätzliche Arbeitsplätze geschaffen, sondern auch einige Unternehmungen vor dem Kollaps bewahrt werden. Dazu kam die kontinuierliche Senkung des Diskontsatzes seit dem Herbst 1931.


Hinweise zur neuen Version:

Version 2.0.0:
Datum der Änderung: 01.01.2013.

Tabellenteil A:
- Änderung der Tabellennummerierung von1.a, 1.b und 2.0 in A.01.01; A.01.02 und A.02.
- Datenbeschreibung in den Tabellenköpfen der A-Tabellen: Übersetzung in das Deutsche mit Erwähnung der englischen Version in Klammern.

Tabellenteil B:
Vollständig neu aufgenommener Tabellenteil B;
Hinweis:
Datentabelle B.03 ist nicht in HISTAT eingeladen worden – Querschnittsdaten, per Bestellung erhältlich (histat@gesis.org).

Nachfolgend Datentabellen der Version 2:

Datentabellen in HISTAT (Thema: Geld):

A. Deutsche Währungsstatistik (Datentabellen aus dem Anhang)

A.01.01 Die Reichsbank – Notenumlauf, Scheck und Wechsel und Mindestreserven, Jahresdurchschnitte (1913, 1925-1932)
ZA8438_A-01-01.xls
(Variablen=
- Goldreserven
- Goldreserven (im Ausland)
- Devisen, deckungsfähig
- Deutsche Wertmarken
- Lombard
- Banknoten
- Banknoten, ausländische
- Reichsschatzanweisungen/-schatzwechsel
- Einlagen in der Reichsbank, öffentliche
- Einlagen in der Reichsbank, private
- Reichsbank-Notenumlauf
- Deckung des Notenumlaufs mit Gold und Devisen)

A.01.02 Die Reichsbank – Notenumlauf, Scheck und Wechsel und Mindestreserven, Monatsdaten (1928-1929)
ZA8438_A-01-02.xls
(Variablen=
- Goldreserven
- Goldreserven (im Ausland)
- Devisen, deckungsfähig
- Deutsche Wertmarken
- Lombard
- Banknoten
- Banknoten, ausländische
- Reichsschatzanweisungen/-schatzwechsel
- Einlagen in der Reichsbank, öffentliche
- Einlagen in der Reichsbank, private
- Reichsbank-Notenumlauf
- Deckung des Notenumlaufs mit Gold und Devisen )

A.02 Geldmenge in Deutschland, Monatsdaten (1925-1934)
ZA8438_A-02.xls
(Variablen=
- Geldmenge im Umlauf (, monatlicher Durchschnitt)
- Einlagen großer Kreditbanken, Staatsbanken, Girobanken und Hypothekenbanken
(Anm.: zum Ende des Monats)
- Reserven (bar und als Einlagen der Zentralbank) großer Kreditbanken,
Staatsbanken, Girobanken und Hypothekenbanken
(Anm.: zum Ende des Monats)
- Sog. leistungsfähiges Geld plus Geldumlauf plus Geldreserven
(Anm.: High-powered money + Geldmenge im Umlauf + Reserven grosser Banken.)
- Geldangebot (= Geldumlauf plus Geldeinlagen)
- Verhältnis der Geldreserven zu den Geldeinlagen
(Anteil der Geldreserven an den Geldeinlagen, in %)
- Verhältnis der Geldeinlagen zu der Geldmenge
(Anteil der Geldeinlagen an der Geldmenge)
- Geldangebot im Verhältnis zu den Großhandelspreis-Index (1928=100)


B. Finanzen der Reichsbank und des Staates (Datentabellen aus dem Textteil)

B.01 Neue Darlehen großer Banken als Anteil an den Kapitalanlagen der Industrie (1925-1930)
ZA8438_B-01.xls

B.02 Bilanz des Reiches: der Staatshaushalt und seine Leistungsbilanz in Mill. RM (1924-1929)
ZA8438_B-02.xls
(Variablen=Staatshaushalt:
- current account = Leistungsbilanz
- Incl. use of reserves for pervious years = Leistungsbilanz inklusive der
Verwendung von Reserven aus dem Vorjahr
- Loans = Darlehen
- Official budget surplus/deficit = Haushaltsüberschuss/-defizit )

B.03 Staatliche Subventionen in Mill. RM(1927-1929)
ZA8438_Q-B-03.xls
(Variablen=Subventionen:
- insgesamt
- Industrie und Handel)

B.04 Entwicklung des Umsatzes der Lebensversicherung in Deutschland als Anteil an neuen Abschlüssen insgesamt, notiert in RM.
ZA8438_B-04.xls
(Variable:
- Abgeschlossene Lebensversicherungen in % an allen Versicherungsabschlüssen)

B.05 Dividenden deutscher Großbanken auf das Grundkapital 1925-1932)
ZA8438_B-05.xls
(Variablen= Bankhäuser:
- Deutsche Bank
- Dresdner Bank
- Danat Bank
- Commerz- und Privatbank )

B.06 Deutscher Handel mit Frankreich in mill. RM (1928-1933)
ZA8438_B-06.xls
(Variablen:
- Deutsche Importe
- Deutsche Exporte
- Handelsbilanz
- Verhältnis des Exports zum Import)

B.07 Deutsche Zahlungsbilanz ohne sog. unsichtbare Elemente (z.B. Überweisungen, stat. nicht erfasste Transaktionen, sog. Restposten) (1929-1933)
ZA8438_B-07.xls
(Variablen=
Handelsbilanz:
- Import
- Export
- Saldo)

B.08 Anteil der Arbeitslosenunterstützung an den Wohlfahrtsausgaben in Städten über 100000 Einwohner (1927-1930)
ZA8438_B-08.xls

B.09 Ausgaben der Kommunen für die Wohlfahrt in Mill. RM und in % an den kommunalen Ausgaben insgesamt (1928/29 – 1931/32)
ZA8438_B-09.xls

B.10 Steuereinnahmen der Kommunen in mill. RM und in % der Einnahmen des Jahres 1928/29 (1928/29-1932/33)
ZA8438_B-10.xls
(Variablen:
- Reichssteuertransfers, absolut
- Reichssteuertransfers, in %
- Steuereinnahmen der Länder und Kommunen, absolut
- Steuereinnahmen der Länder und Kommunen, in %
- Steuereinnahmen insgesamt, absolut
- Steuereinnahmen insgesamt, in %)

B.11 Schulden der Kommunen mit mehr als 10000 Einwohner in mill. RM und in % der der Schulden des Jahres 1928/ (1928-1930)
ZA8438_B-11.xls
(Variablen:
- Bevölkerung über 10.000 – Auslandsschulden, abs.
- Bevölkerung über 10.000 – Auslandsschulden, % von 1928
- Bevölkerung über 10.000 – Inlandsverschuldung, abs.
- Bevölkerung über 10.000 – Inlandsverschuldung, in % von 1928
- Bevölkerung über 10.000 – Inlandsverschuldung - darunter:
Kurz- und mittelfristige Kredite, abs.
- Bevölkerung über 10.000 – Inlandsverschuldung - darunter:
Kurz- und mittelfristige Kredite, in % von 1928
- Bevölkerung über 100.000 – Auslandsschulden, abs.
- Bevölkerung über 100.000 – Auslandsschulden, % von 1928
- Bevölkerung über 100.000 – Inlandsverschuldung, abs.
- Bevölkerung über 100.000 – Inlandsverschuldung, in % von 1928
- Bevölkerung über 100.000 – Inlandsverschuldung - darunter:
Kurz- und mittelfristige Kredite, abs.
- Bevölkerung über 100.000 – Inlandsverschuldung - darunter:
Kurz- und mittelfristige Kredite, in % von 1928 )

B.12 Deutscher Handel mit der Sowjetunion in mill. RM (1929-1933)
ZA8438_B-12.xls
(Variablen:
- Deutsche Importe
- Deutsche Exporte)

B.13 Deutsche Exporte in die Sowjetunion als Anteil an den deutschen Exporten insgesamt nach Gütern (1929-1933)
ZA8438_B-13.xls
(Variablen=Exportgüter:
- Elektromaschinen
- Elektrotechnische Ausstattungsteile
- Ingenieursprodukte
- sonstige nichtelektronische Werkzeuge
- Rohrleitungen und gewalztes Eisen
- Schmiedeeisen, Gusseisen
- Bleche, Bäder, Drähte)

B.14 Bankaktiva zum 30. November in mill. RM (1931-1934)
ZA8438_B-14.xls
(Variablen=Aktiva:
- Checks und Quittungen
- Anzahlungen auf Güter
- Schatzanweisungen
- insgesamt)

B.15 Inanspruchnahme der Ressourcen des Bruttoinlandsproduktes (in Preisen von 1913) in bill. RM und in % (1925/29-1935/38)
ZA8438_B-15.xls
(Variablen=Verwendung des BIP:
- Privater Konsum, abs
- Privater Konsum, in %
- Nettoinvestitionen, abs
- Nettoinvestitionen, in %
- Öffentlicher Konsum, abs
- Öffentlicher Konsum, in %)

We develop a simple general equilibrium model in which investment in a risky technology is subject to moral hazard and banks can extract market power rents. We show that more bank competition results in lower economy-wide risk, higher social welfare, lower bank capital ratios, more efficient production plans and Pareto-ranked real allocations. Perfect competition supports a second best allocation and optimal levels of bank risk and capitalization. These results are at variance with those obtained by a large literature that has studied a similar environment in partial equilibrium, they are empirically relevant, and carry significant implications for policy guidance.

This thesis illustrates and puts in context two of the main research projects I worked on during my Ph.D. program, in collaboration with several national and international co-authors from "La Sapienza" and other prestigious universities. Both research lines concern spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of geo-referenced datasets, which is of broad and current interest in the statistical research literature and applications. My focus on such an area of statistics was not meditated before the start of the program. However, while pursuing my original research interests in the broader domain of Bayesian statistics, I realized there was an ever-increasing demand for viable and efficient statistical methods to analyze spatial and spatio-temporal data. That is a consequence of the extraordinary technological development that interested data collection systems during the last few decades. The innovative, cutting-edge technologies conceive new devices that can record and store data and information about the most diverse phenomena, possibly at a fine spatial scale and with high temporal resolution. Such capabilities were just a dream up to 20 or 30 years ago. Spatial statistics methods are rapidly evolving to face this surge of novel data structure in various application fields: geology, meteorology, ecology, epidemiology, economics, politics, and more. The first chapter of this thesis introduces the general idea behind spatial statistics, that is the branch of statistics devoted to analyzing and modeling temporal and spatial structure in time and/or geo-referenced datasets. A brief historical introduction of its developments is provided, starting from the first (sometimes unwitting) applications of its logic to practical and theoretical problems at the end of the XIX century. Many methods and techniques in this domain evolved independently, driven by the specific needs of the application fields in which they were developed. The historical excursus leads to a coarse (but reasonable) distinction in three main areas: continuous spatial variations, discrete spatial variations, spatial point patterns. These areas present further facets within themselves, making spatial statistics an incredibly diverse and rich topic. A really comprehensive review would require an entire book to be written and maybe a lifetime to be thoroughly studied. Therefore, in the following Chapters, the discussion is focused on specific areas and techniques used in the studies. Only those tools that proved valuable for the analysis performed in Alaimo Di Loro et al.(2021) and Kalair et al. (2020) are extensively treated. The second chapter focuses on analyzing continuous spatial variation, which is the modeling of outcomes varying continuously over some space. First, the most relevant properties for continuous spatial processes are introduced; second, some of the most common methodologies for performing spatial interpolation of the mean trend and stochastic modeling of the residuals are listed and sketched. In particular, the chapter digresses on Spline Regression as a valid technique to catch the first-order structure in spatial data. Soon after, the Geo-Statistical methods and the Bayesian Hierarchical framework are claimed as invaluable tools to attain the simultaneous estimation of the first and second-order structure of a process. Extension to spatio-temporal contexts is not as trivial as it may seem but must be approached with due care. An extensive discussion about the possible pitfalls and viable solutions is included in the same chapter. Finally, the problems arising in the analysis of Big spatial data are highlighted in the last section, where The Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP, Datta et al. (2016a,b)) model is introduced as a highly scalable framework for providing full inference on massive spatial and spatio-temporal datasets. The third chapter includes an extended version of the paper Alaimo Di Loro et al. (2021), currently under-review and published as a pre-print. It describes how the aforementioned technological development has strongly affected human tracking and monitoring capabilities, generating substantial interest in monitoring human activity. New non-intrusive wearable devices, such as wrist-worn sensors that monitor gross motor activity (miniature accelerometers), can continuously record individual activity levels, producing massive amounts of high-resolution measurements. Analyzing such data needs to account for spatial and temporal information on trajectories or paths traversed by subjects wearing such devices. Inferential objectives include estimating a subject's physical activity levels along a given trajectory, identifying trajectories that are more likely to produce higher levels of physical activity for a given subject, and predicting expected levels of physical activity in any proposed new trajectory for a given set of health attributes. We argue that the underlying process is more appropriately modeled as a stochastic evolution through time while accounting for spatial information separately. Building upon recent developments in this field, we construct temporal processes using directed acyclic graphs (DAG) on the line of the NNGP, include spatial dependence through penalized spline regression, and develop optimized implementations of the collapsed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The resulting Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for the analysis of spatial-temporal actigraphy data proves able to deliver fully model-based inference on trajectories while accounting for subject-level health attributes and spatial-temporal dependencies. We undertake a comprehensive analysis of an original dataset from the Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches in Los Angeles (PASTA-LA) study to formally ascertain spatial zones and trajectories exhibiting significantly higher physical activity levels. Suggestions for further extensions and improvements on the currently adopted methodology are discussed in the last section of the chapter. Chapter four undergoes a paradigm shift and introduces the basic theory and tools of spatial point patterns analysis. Some common probabilistic models for point processes are briefly discussed, with some of their properties and limitations highlighted. The rest of the chapter is instead entirely focused on the Hawkes process and its spatio-temporal extension. It is a particular kind of self-exciting point process that presents a strong inter-dependence structure. While conceived in Hawkes (1971a), its use in the statistical application has been for a long time limited to the analysis of earthquakes dynamic. The recent escalation of data at the high temporal resolution, sometimes accompanied by spatial information, has favored its use in modeling events dynamics in diverse fields: finance, society, biology, etc. In particular, its defining properties are presented and state-of-the-art estimation methods of the spatio-temporal version are introduced. In the fifth chapter, the semi-parametric Hawkes process with a periodic background originally introduced in Zhuang and Mateu (2019) is outlined. While very recent, it has already revealed itself very useful to model phenomena that are likely to present a cyclic pattern. It assumes that primary events occur as an effect of the background intensity, while secondary events are associated with the self-excitation effect. There are sound motivations that justify its utilization in the context of road accident dynamics, e.g.: excitation may occur when a driver, reacting to the disruption of one accident, triggers a subsequent accident upstream of the first one. The proposed framework is tested on two original applications on two original sets of data: the first one, somewhat preliminary, involves the modeling and analysis of road accidents that occurred on the urban road network of Rome, in Italy; the second is instead a conclusive analysis recently published in (Kalair et al., 2020), conducted on a collection of road accidents occurred on the M25 London Orbital, in the United Kingdom. Adaptations of the original methodology to the road accident setting were deemed necessary in both cases to consider specific features of car accidents and the geometry of the underlying space. The final results permit a fruitful interpretation of the temporal and spatial background that detects the typical commuting behavior in the Roman and Londoners communities. The self-excitation component appears to have slightly different intensities in the two contexts, suggesting excitation mechanisms that vary between urban networks and motorways. Finally, the sixth chapter summarizes all the main passages in the thesis, highlighting the previous chapters' original contributions. It also tries to summarize a take-home message about statistical modeling's fundamental importance as a scientific tool to formulate and verify hypotheses that must not be discouraged by new challenges and technological advancements.

The authors wish to thank three anonymous referees for helpful comments to a previous version. Financial support from the Spanish Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Projects ECO2011-29314-C02-02–O. Bajo-Rubio and C. Díaz-Roldán– and ECO2011-30260-C03-01–V. Esteve–), and the Department of Education and Science of the regional government of Castilla-La Mancha (Project PEII09-0072-7392), is also gratefully acknowledged. V. Esteve also acknowledges support from the Generalitat Valenciana (Project GVPROMETEO2009-098) ; En este artículo, ofrecemos un test de la sostenibilidad de los desequilibrios exteriores en los países de la OCDE durante los años 1970-2007, es decir, antes del inicio de la crisis financiera internacional. En concreto, nos ocupamos del caso de aquellos países que han experimentado un déficit por cuenta corriente en más de la mitad de los años de todo el período de análisis, y abordar la reciente crítica de Bohn (2007) sobre la raíz unitaria y tests de cointegración de la restricción presupuestaria intertemporal ; In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries over the years 1970-2007, i.e., before the beginning of the international financial crisis. Specifically, we deal with the case of those countries that have experienced current account deficits in more than half of the years throughout the period of analysis, and address the recent critique of Bohn (2007) on unit root and cointegration tests of the intertemporal budget constraint

Global warming due to human-induced increments in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) is one of the most debated topics among environmentalists and politicians worldwide. In this paper we assess a novel source of GHG emissions emerged following a controversial policy decision. After the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Europe, the sanitary regulation required that livestock carcasses were collected from farms and transformed or destroyed in authorised plants, contradicting not only the obligations of member states to conserve scavenger species but also generating unprecedentedGHG emission. However, how much of this emission could be prevented in the return to traditional and natural scenario in which scavengers freely remove livestock carcasses is largely unknown. Here we show that, in Spain (home of 95% of European vultures), supplanting the natural removal of dead extensive livestock by scavengers with carcass collection and transport to intermediate and processing plants meant the emission of 77,344 metric tons of CO2 eq. to the atmosphere per year, in addition to annual payments of ca. $50 million to insurance companies. Thus, replacing the ecosystem services provided by scavengers has not only conservation costs, but also important and unnecessary environmental and economic costs ; This study was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the project CGL2012-40013-C02-01/02. Z.M.-R. was supported by FPU12/00823, M.C. by RYC-2009-04860 and A.M. by RYC-2012-11867. We thank B. Robles for his pioneering ideas on the energetic savings provided by vultures, and Entidad Estatal de Seguros Agrarios (ENESA) of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment (MAGRAMA) for supplying information.

Cover -- Volume 01 -- Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Original Title Page -- Original Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- What This Book Is About -- Chapter 1: The Deteriorating World Economy -- Chapter 2: Monetary Order and Disorder -- Chapter 3: Oil Tips the Balance -- Chapter 4: The Turn of the Screw -- Chapter 5: Coping With the Oil Billions -- Chapter 6: The Cowardice of Money -- Appendix: The Other Two Thirds of the World -- Volume 02 -- Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Original Title Page -- Original Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Table of Contents -- List of Tables and Figures -- List of Abbreviations -- Introduction -- Chapter 1: The World Energy Outlook in the 1980s and the Role of OPEC -- Chapter 2: Two Crises Compared: OPEC Pricing in 1973-1975 and 1978-1980 -- Chapter 3: Some Long-Term Problems in OPEC Oil Pricing -- Chapter 4: Optimum Production and Pricing Policies -- Chapter 5: An Economic Analysis of Crude Oil Price Behavior in the 1970s -- Chapter 6: OPEC: Cartel or Chimaera? -- Chapter 7: The Oil Price Revolution of 1973-1974 -- Chapter 8: OPEC and the Price of Oil: Cartelization or Alteration of Property Rights -- Chapter 9: Future Production and Marketing Decisions of OPEC Nations -- Chapter 10: Downstream Operations and the Development of OPEC Member Countries -- Chapter 11: OPEC Aid, the OPEC Fund, and Cooperation with Commercial Development Finance Sources -- Chapter 12: Oil Prices and the World Balance of Payments -- Chapter 13: Friends or Fellow Travelers? The Relationship of Non-OPEC Exporters with OPEC -- Chapter 14: The Future Relationship Among Energy Demand, OPEC, and the Value of the Dollar -- Chapter 15: OPEC Revenues and Inflation in OPEC Member Countries: A Fiscal Policy Approach -- Chapter 16: Inflation, Dollar Depreciation, and OPEC's Purchasing Power.

The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Projects ECO2011-29314-C02-02–O. Bajo-Rubio and C. Díaz-Roldán– and ECO2011-30260-CO3-01 –V. Esteve–), and the Department of Education and Science of the regional government of Castilla-La Mancha (Project PEII09-0072-7392). V. Esteve also acknowledges support from the Generalitat Valenciana (Project GVPROMETEO2009-098) ; In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850-2000, emphasizing the role played by monetary and fiscal dominance in order to get fiscal solvency. Since the condition of fiscal solvency was satisfied, government deficit would have been sustainable along the sample period. In addition, the whole period can be characterized as one of fiscal dominance ; En este artículo, ofrecemos un test de la sostenibilidad del déficit público español durante el periodo 1850-2000, haciendo hincapié en el papel desempeñado por la dominancia monetaria y fiscal con el fin de obtener la solvencia fiscal. Puesto que la condición de la solvencia fiscal estaba satisfecha, el déficit público habría sido sostenible a lo largo del período de la muestra. Además, todo el período puede ser caracterizado como uno de dominancia fiscal

This research report was prepared in the framework of the EU-funded project "Central Asian Law: Legal Cultures and Business Environments in Central Asia" (project number 870647 H2020 MSCA-RISE 2019-2023), which runs from 01/03/2020 through 28/02/2024. The project is coordinated by Lund University, and the project consortium includes European universities (University of Zurich, Charles University Prague, Riga Graduate School of Law, Marmara University, University of Latvia, Istanbul Medipol University, University of Manchester) as well as Central Asian partner institutions (Zhetysu University, Khujand Polytechnic Institute of the Tajik Technical University, SIAR Research and Consulting, Tebigy Kuwwat Public Association, Academy of the General Prosecutor's Office of Uzbekistan, Westminster International University in Tashkent). The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed analysis of the state of FDI in Turkmenistan and to develop a set of recommendations to attract foreign investment. This study attempts to capture as many of the issues surrounding FDI attraction as possible through an analysis that takes into account the most important developments. The timeliness of such an analysis becomes more evident from 2020, as disruptions in global markets caused by the outbreak of a pandemic have made it more of a priority than ever to reduce the reliance on oil and gas exports. The present study attempts to answer the following questions: (i) What might be the potential impact of increased foreign direct investment on Turkmenistan's economic development? (ii) What are the main factors that have hindered greater investment in Turkmenistan since independence? (iii) What measures can the government of Turkmenistan take to attract more foreign direct investment? (iv) How can partner countries and international organizations assist Turkmenistan in attracting more foreign direct investment into the country? (v) Which sectors of Turkmenistan's economy should be a priority for attracting foreign investment in the current environment? The results of this research may be of interest to decision-makers in government, foreign businesses, partner countries and international development agencies.

This article is dedicated to three interconnected concepts – "collective goods", "free rider" and "hegemony" in the context of modern politics. We analyze three theoretical approaches to the problem of provision of collective goods by hegemonic states. These approaches are: neoliberal, (neo) realist and World-System Theory. Basing on these theoretical premises, we analyze the debate about free-ridng in the Western political discourse (especially among US allies) and we point out that particular interests of US can be disguised as "collective goods". Basing on this, we analyze discussions about free-riding both in the Western world (among NATO and EU members) and among US allies in the Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand). We point out that in fact US can use the concept of collective goods to push their own agenda. Than we move to popular in western political science idea that China is a global free rider – for instance in the sphere of sea lane security and global energy security. Basing on A. Kennedy works, we demonstrate that China in fact does not wish to make western powers pay the costs of collective goods. China is rather afraid that western powers will exploit his resources. This idea is supported with the evidence, gathered during in-depth interview with Chinese diplomats and foreign policy experts. Having said that, paper points out that mentioned cases mark the importance of the concept of trust. Trust is well-studied in the field of behavioral economics, but IR theory doesn`t usually takes the concept of trust into account. Also this paper raises a question about including historical and cultural topics in the theory of international relations. Basing on analysis of different ways to incorporate economic arguments in IR theory, authors point out that modern IR theory lacks economic argumentation. Paper concludes with the idea that IR theory should capitalize on behavioral economics. Acknowledgements. This paper is a part of MGIMO University research program no. 1921-01-02.

Différentes versions de ce texte ont été présentées, au Séminaire LEST Action publique 25/01/2002 ; au 12ème Colloque international Politiques et Management Public "L'action publique face à la mondialisation", Paris, 14-15/11/2002 ; au Colloque de l'AISLF "Science, Innovation technologique et Société", Dijon, 30/01-1/02/2003 ; au Colloque « Penser les politiques de recherche et leur institutionnalisation » de l'Institut Européen de l'Université de Genève et de l'Observatoire Science, Politique et Société de l'Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Coppet, 8-9 octobre 2003. ; International audience ; L'enjeu principal de cette contribution tient dans sa tentative de rendre compte du travail de médiation qui articule des répertoires d'interprétation du monde la recherche et de la technologie à la formulation des politiques publiques et, en particulier, des réformes récentes. Autrement dit, il s'agit d'analyser le passage d'une posture analytique à des préconisations normatives. Dans cette perspective, les rapports d'experts tiennent une place cruciale. Les politiques scientifiques et les réformes qu'elles ont connues en France constituent un domaine d'élection pour une "approche cognitive" de l'action publique. En effet, ainsi que ce texte s'attachera à le montrer, l'analyse de ces réformes et, en arrière-plan, de la trajectoire du dispositif français de recherche et de technologie, est inséparable de l'appropriation des analyses produites par la sociologie et l'économie de l'innovation et des connaissances. Elles sont médiatisées par des rapports d'expertise commandités par les pouvoirs publics nationaux et/ou élaborées par les organisations internationales, au premier rang d'entre elles, l'OCDE. Comme dans d'autres domaines de l'action publique, l'élaboration des récentes réformes est souvent assimilée à une promotion des régulations marchandes. Certes, c'est bien la construction des années 50-70, qualifiée de 'colbertiste' ou de 'régulation administrée', qui est ainsi en jeu ; mais on peut avancer qu'une ...

Différentes versions de ce texte ont été présentées, au Séminaire LEST Action publique 25/01/2002 ; au 12ème Colloque international Politiques et Management Public "L'action publique face à la mondialisation", Paris, 14-15/11/2002 ; au Colloque de l'AISLF "Science, Innovation technologique et Société", Dijon, 30/01-1/02/2003 ; au Colloque « Penser les politiques de recherche et leur institutionnalisation » de l'Institut Européen de l'Université de Genève et de l'Observatoire Science, Politique et Société de l'Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Coppet, 8-9 octobre 2003. ; International audience ; L'enjeu principal de cette contribution tient dans sa tentative de rendre compte du travail de médiation qui articule des répertoires d'interprétation du monde la recherche et de la technologie à la formulation des politiques publiques et, en particulier, des réformes récentes. Autrement dit, il s'agit d'analyser le passage d'une posture analytique à des préconisations normatives. Dans cette perspective, les rapports d'experts tiennent une place cruciale. Les politiques scientifiques et les réformes qu'elles ont connues en France constituent un domaine d'élection pour une "approche cognitive" de l'action publique. En effet, ainsi que ce texte s'attachera à le montrer, l'analyse de ces réformes et, en arrière-plan, de la trajectoire du dispositif français de recherche et de technologie, est inséparable de l'appropriation des analyses produites par la sociologie et l'économie de l'innovation et des connaissances. Elles sont médiatisées par des rapports d'expertise commandités par les pouvoirs publics nationaux et/ou élaborées par les organisations internationales, au premier rang d'entre elles, l'OCDE. Comme dans d'autres domaines de l'action publique, l'élaboration des récentes réformes est souvent assimilée à une promotion des régulations marchandes. Certes, c'est bien la construction des années 50-70, qualifiée de 'colbertiste' ou de 'régulation administrée', qui est ainsi en jeu ; mais on peut avancer qu'une ...

Différentes versions de ce texte ont été présentées, au Séminaire LEST Action publique 25/01/2002 ; au 12ème Colloque international Politiques et Management Public "L'action publique face à la mondialisation", Paris, 14-15/11/2002 ; au Colloque de l'AISLF "Science, Innovation technologique et Société", Dijon, 30/01-1/02/2003 ; au Colloque « Penser les politiques de recherche et leur institutionnalisation » de l'Institut Européen de l'Université de Genève et de l'Observatoire Science, Politique et Société de l'Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Coppet, 8-9 octobre 2003. ; International audience ; L'enjeu principal de cette contribution tient dans sa tentative de rendre compte du travail de médiation qui articule des répertoires d'interprétation du monde la recherche et de la technologie à la formulation des politiques publiques et, en particulier, des réformes récentes. Autrement dit, il s'agit d'analyser le passage d'une posture analytique à des préconisations normatives. Dans cette perspective, les rapports d'experts tiennent une place cruciale. Les politiques scientifiques et les réformes qu'elles ont connues en France constituent un domaine d'élection pour une "approche cognitive" de l'action publique. En effet, ainsi que ce texte s'attachera à le montrer, l'analyse de ces réformes et, en arrière-plan, de la trajectoire du dispositif français de recherche et de technologie, est inséparable de l'appropriation des analyses produites par la sociologie et l'économie de l'innovation et des connaissances. Elles sont médiatisées par des rapports d'expertise commandités par les pouvoirs publics nationaux et/ou élaborées par les organisations internationales, au premier rang d'entre elles, l'OCDE. Comme dans d'autres domaines de l'action publique, l'élaboration des récentes réformes est souvent assimilée à une promotion des régulations marchandes. Certes, c'est bien la construction des années 50-70, qualifiée de 'colbertiste' ou de 'régulation administrée', qui est ainsi en jeu ; mais on peut avancer qu'une ...