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Intro -- OIL PRICES FUNDAMENTALS, FLUCTUATIONS AND IMPACTS -- OIL PRICES FUNDAMENTALS, FLUCTUATIONS AND IMPACTS -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1 SPECULATION, FUNDAMENTALS, AND OIL PRICES* -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- OIL MARKETS, PRICES, AND DERIVATIVES -- The Mechanics of a Futures Contract -- Who Trades in Oil Derivatives Markets -- Commercial Hedgers -- Swap Dealers -- Money Managers -- Other Speculators -- SPECULATION AND HEDGING IN OIL FUTURES MARKETS -- PRICE IMPACT OF SPECULATION -- DERIVATIVES MARKETS AND PRICE DISTORTIONS -- Manipulation -- Speculation -- Theories of Speculation -- Excessive Speculation -- Arguments that Oil Speculation has been Excessive -- FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS -- Economic Growth Lifts Demand -- Supply Cannot Keep up -- Price Inelasticity of Supply and Demand Enables Large Price Swings -- CONGRESSIONAL ACTION -- CONCLUSION -- APPENDIX A. SPECULATIVE TRADING AND PRICE -- APPENDIX B. OPTIONS -- APPENDIX C. SWAPS -- End Notes -- Chapter 2 OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS* -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- The U.S. Situation -- The United States in a Global Oil Market -- OIL PRICES AND THE U.S. ECONOMY -- MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND -- Demand Growth Led by Developing Countries -- Challenges to Oil Supply Growth -- OPEC's Role in the Oil Market -- Peak Oil Concerns -- Refining and Crude Oil Prices -- Prices Collapse with Recession, Rebound with Recovery -- June 2011 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release -- Future Fundamentals and the Price of Oil -- Supply and Demand Policy Measures -- Domestic Oil and Gas Drilling -- Demand Efficiency -- Alternative Fuels -- Strategic Petroleum Reserve -- Foreign Policy -- NON-FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS: SPECULATION, MANIPULATION, AND THE DOLLAR -- The Role of Speculators -- Regulation of Speculators -- Recent Legislation -- Manipulation of Physical Prices