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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the multiplier effects of economic activities in the local economy of Greek non-metropolitan prefectures at NUTS3 level according to the Eurostat classification.Design/methodology/approachA disaggregate economic base model using OLS regression with clustered standard errors is implemented in 49 non-metropolitan prefectures and 17 economic activities for 2000 and 2012. The specific model indicates a clear picture of multiplier effects of economic activities among the prefectures as it has a similar logic to the input-output analysis while bearing in mind the spatial effects among prefectures. The specific model has not applied for testing base multipliers in the Greek economy according to the academic literature.FindingsNon-traditional export-oriented activities play a significant role in the economic growth of the non-metropolitan prefectures. Their multiplier effects are higher than the traditional basic activities. Especially, some of these activities indicate strong shifts on specific local activities, which tend to be the significant multiplier effects on the overall local economy. Of course, the existence of agglomeration economies plays a considerable role in non-metropolitan prefectures with a significant population and non-metropolitan prefectures which are in insular space or belong to the perimetric and interior mountainous space, which are sparsely populated.Originality/valueThe specific model applies at the NUTS3 level, according to the Eurostat classification. Also, the model indicates that the multiplier effects come from non-traditional export activities, such as, information-communication, arts entertainment, health services, professional support services and real estate in the overall local economy. Finally, the spatial correlation influences the sectoral multipliers.

SUMMARYThis note is an attempt to offer a quantitatively significant answer to the question: How effective is cost disinflation likely to be in restoring a deficit country's balance of payments equilibrium? This question is occasioned by such recent structural changes in the world economy as to intensify cost‐price competition in international markets. In seeking the needed answer, the author has set up a system of equations to describe the relevant domestic and foreign variables affecting a trading nation's balance of payments–on plausible assumptions. The analysis made on the basis of that system leads to the following conclusions:1. If a nation is not a marginal supplier of internationally tradeable goods, the price‐elasticity of world demand for that nation's exports is likely to be so far below unity (trend value) as to worsen its balance of payments in consequence of a disinflation‐induced fall in its export price, given the constant exchange rates and the constant level of effective world demand.2. If a nation's exports consist largely of capital goods and manufactures, the income‐elasticity of world demand for that nation's exports is likely to exceed unity so as to aggravate its balance of payments difficulties during a period of falling effective world demand possibly set off by some other nation's disinflationary drive, cet. par.3. If a nation's cost disinflation increases its innovational investment (designed to increase general productivity), its induced imports are likely to increase via the foreign‐trade multiplier and so to offset any beneficial effect that a disinflationinduced fall in the export price might have on its trade balance.4. In sum, the analysis would make it theoretically unsound and practically unwise for any trading nation to place unilaterally excessive reliance on the price mechanism in general and disinflation in particular for balance of payments equilibrium–especially in this day and age of universal wage‐price rigidities, income sensibilities and exchange‐rate flexibilities.

During the past two decades, an increasing number of
developing countries have sought to pursue export -oriented trade and
industrial policies as against the import -substitution strategy of
industrialization.1 It has been argued that production for the world
market not only restores the momentum of industrial growth but it leads
to efficient resource allocation, greater capacity utilization, permits
the exploitation of economies of scale, generates technological
improvement in response to competition abroad and, most importantly,
creates productive employment opportunities for a labour-surplus country
[Balassa (1978), p. 180). This paper is not concerned with the merits or
otherwise of export -oriented trade and industrialization policies
rather we concentrate on the most important contribution of outward
looking or export-oriented policy, i.e., its employment creation
effects. It has been argued that an increased level of activity in the
export sector gives rise to dynamic external economies of scale besides
having its own direct effect. For example, an increase in exports
creates jobs for workers directly engaged in the production of the
export commodities. This being the direct effect, an increase in exports
also creates employment via the linkage effect, multiplier effect and
foreign exchange effect.2 A large number of studies over the last two
decades have attempted to measure the direct and indirect contributions
of exports in employment creation in developing countries.3 Almost all
studies have used static input-output analysis to quantify the
contribution of exports in employment generation.

Prolonged droughts and depleting groundwater resources have been a serious challenge to the economy of province of Balochistan, Pakistan. Proliferation of tube-wells incentivized by government policy interventions and continued subsidy for electric tube-wells for agriculture and choice for high-water consumption crops have led to steep decline in water tables. This paper uses Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier model approach to simulate impact of declining water tables on the provincial economy, a first ever effort. To capture the impact of declining water tables, increase in shadow prices of groundwater are calculated and the effects are traced on agricultural production. Using these effects, simulations are designed to reflect the impact of water tables' decline on macroeconomic variables including GDP, government's revenues/expenditures, households' income, and net exports. Agricultural policy options are also introduced in the model to explore their effectiveness in mitigating the effects of groundwater exploitation. Effects of non-agricultural policy options such as the debated removal of tube-well subsidy, shifting to non-agricultural sectors and investment in recharge mechanisms are also estimated on the overall provincial economy. Findings from the paper indicate that depleting water tables have adversely affected the provincial economy and the impact of widely recommended agricultural policy is moderate in mitigating these effects. Subsidy rationalization is observed to have substantial impact on GDP, households, and trade balance. However, investment in recharge mechanisms and expansion in processing, manufacturing and services sector can be crucial for the development of the province. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; PACE; PSSP; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

In this paper we use a variant of the 1–2–3 trade-focused general-equilibrium model to calculate the employment effects of factor subsidies applied to the regional export base. Analytical expressions are derived for the change in basic employment and the export-base employment multiplier. These expressions are compared with the conventional hybrid approach where the impact on the recipient sectors is analysed by using a partial-equilibrium method and the effect on other sectors is calculated through some form of demand-driven multiplier. The conventional hybrid procedure fails to capture fully displacement in the regional labour market. If we use the general-equilibrium results as a benchmark, numerical simulation suggests that the hybrid approach substantially overestimates the employment effects of the subsidies. Similar problems are likely to apply to the evaluation of all supply-side policies targeted on the regional export base.

Egypt is considering initiatives to deploy renewable energies, such as solar and wind; these would be financed through national and international public funds and private investment. Direct and induced impacts of investments could be significant drivers of socioeconomic development in Egypt, which currently has high level of poverty and unemployment plus volatile economic growth due to recent political upheaval. The initiatives would have two goals: i) export of electricity from renewable sources to Europe; and ii) generation of electricity to satisfy Egypt's growing energy need. We thus posed two research questions: i) what are possible effects of investment in concentrating solar power (CSP), at a scale that would attract national and international policy incentives; and ii) what are effects of investment in CSP compared with the effects of a) the business-as-usual scenario, b) the DESERTEC investment plan, which foresees a large share of electricity being exported to Europe, and c) the national energy targets, under which CSP will be deployed to satisfy local energy demand. Our method is Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Egypt and the Leontief Input-Output model. Our results show that even though impacts from investments foreseen by the DESERTEC scenario will be highest in terms of GDP, output will be higher in the case of the scenario aiming to secure local demand of electricity from CSP. However, under this scenario, the income multiplier impacts will be the lowest, compared with the DESERTEC and business-as-usual scenarios.

Egypt is considering initiatives to deploy renewable energies, such as solar and wind; these would be financed through national and international public funds and private investment. Direct and induced impacts of investments could be significant drivers of socioeconomic development in Egypt, which currently has high level of poverty and unemployment plus volatile economic growth due to recent political upheaval. The initiatives would have two goals: i) export of electricity from renewable sources to Europe; and ii) generation of electricity to satisfy Egypt's growing energy need. We thus posed two research questions: i) what are possible effects of investment in concentrating solar power (CSP), at a scale that would attract national and international policy incentives; and ii) what are effects of investment in CSP compared with the effects of a) the business-as-usual scenario, b) the DESERTEC investment plan, which foresees a large share of electricity being exported to Europe, and c) the national energy targets, under which CSP will be deployed to satisfy local energy demand. Our method is Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Egypt and the Leontief Input-Output model. Our results show that even though impacts from investments foreseen by the DESERTEC scenario will be highest in terms of GDP, output will be higher in the case of the scenario aiming to secure local demand of electricity from CSP. However, under this scenario, the income multiplier impacts will be the lowest, compared with the DESERTEC and business-as-usual scenarios.

Gambling in America carefully breaks ground by developing analytical tools to assess the benefits and costs of the economic and social changes introduced by casino gambling in monetary terms, linking them to individual households' utility and well-being. Since casinos are associated with unintended and often negative economic consequences, these factors are incorporated into the discussion. The book also shows how amenity benefits - for casinos, the benefit to consumers of closer proximity - enter the evaluation. Other topics include agent incentives and public decision making, conceptual clarifications about economic development, cost-benefit analysis, and net export multiplier models. Professor Grinols finds that, in considering all relevant factors, the social costs of casino gambling outweigh their social benefits

Pro-poor tourism is arguably one of the best green options for addressing LDC poverty, employment and economic diversification initiatives. Although often neglected as a serious policy option - and consequently most of its potential still remains untapped - tourism is the leading export for at least 11 LDCs, and the 2nd or 3rd largest export for another 11 or more. It is also a major source of new employment, especially for women, youth and the rural poor in general. While difficult to measure accurately, tourism's pro-poor impacts are directly related to the achieved level of inter- and intra-sectoral linkages. Taking export diversification, employment generation and the green economy in turn, the working paper analyzes feasible LDC alternatives, reaching the conclusion (within the limits of data availability) that - in contrast with the current overemphasis on agriculture and manufacturing - green tourism is demonstrably one of the areas of greatest current comparative advantage and development potential for the majority of LDCs, via its extensive upstream and downstream linkages/multiplier effects, employment-generating and poverty alleviation capacities, opportunities for export test marketing of new products, sustainability, and largely untapped export opportunities. An economy wide, primarily private-sector approach is an essential element for maximizing tourism benefits - including its multiple linkages with agriculture and manufacturing - together with a significant coordinating governmental role to minimize negative externalities. Unfortunately, there is no automatic guarantee that expanding tourism will significantly increase poverty alleviation or local employment generation: the necessary mechanisms must be explicitly included in tourism planning and implementation.

The objective of this paper was to construct a social accounting matrix (SAM) and show how it can be used to determine the economy-wide and sectoral effects of external shocks and various policy options available using Oman as a model. We first constructed an aggregate SAM (macro SAM) based on the country's national accounts which provided the control totals for a multisectoral, multi-institutional SAM. Then, we used the SAM to derive the multiplier matrix coefficients and simulated the effects of four policy scenarios: 1) an increase in agricultural and manufacturing exports (diversification scenario), 2) an increase in oil export value, 3) a reduction in worker remittances, and 4) an income transfer to rural households (equity scenario). Results showed that the diversification scenario had the largest overall production multiplier, while the increase in oil export price scenario had the highest impact on government revenue, balance of trade and saving. The remittance control scenario had the highest impact on total household income but most of the income increase went to urban households. The equity scenario had the second largest increase on household income, mostly rural income, but the least effect on saving, and trade balance. The policy implications of these simulations are not clear-cut. In addressing development issues, policy makers would need to use a combination of policy instruments to achieve a specific objective.

AbstractMany local and regional practitioners still use the single multiplier version of economic (export) base analysis in project assessments. However, dependable estimates of this multiplier require that the division of total activity into its export (basic) and local (non‐basic) components be reasonably accurate across all industries. This paper compares the economic base multiplier that is generated by a shortcut approach, one calibrated by the Arizona Community Data Set (ACDS), with that generated by the popular IMPLAN input‐output model. The comparison is made across 577 micropolitan (all non‐metropolitan) US counties in the year 2000. Although the two approaches are not at all similar they generate comparable economic base multipliers. Moreover, various regional attributes, like human capital and specialization, affect the two multiplier estimates in much the same way.

Traditional Keynesian trade multipliers ignore intermediate goods. Professors Harrod and Johnson have considered them in a limited sense; both used a one-sector model. The objects of this paper are: to consider the effect of intermediate goods on the trade multiplier by use of a matrix trade multiplier; to consider their effect on the rate of growth of both exports and outputs of commodities; and to discuss the stability conditions of a balanced growth rate in a simple dynamic Leontief model.Harrod took intermediate goods into account only as a deduction from exports or investments when he considered the multiplier process. Johnson considered them more explicitly. In his model, an economy uses a primary factor of production, say labour, and foreign-made intermediate goods to produce consumption goods. However, the economy does not use home-produced intermediate goods, and all home-produced goods are consumption goods (so that the economy exports only consumption goods). In a more realistic model, the autonomous increment of demand for investments or exports would create two kinds of multiplier processes: one through the increment of demand for home-produced consumption goods, the other through the demand for home-produced intermediate goods. Each industry uses a primary factor of production and both home-made and foreign-made intermediate goods. Consumers demand both domestic and foreign consumption goods.