Aggregate Demand Externality and Self-Fulfilling Default Cycles
In: NBER Working Paper No. w32291
3690 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: NBER Working Paper No. w32291
SSRN
In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Band 72, S. 83-96
In: Journal of monetary economics, Band 72, S. 83-96
In: IWH discussion papers 2023, no. 21 (December 2023)
This paper contributes to a better understanding of the important role that credit demand plays for credit markets and aggregate macroeconomic developments as both a source and transmitter of economic shocks. I am the first to identify a structural credit demand equation together with credit supply, aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy in a Bayesian structural VAR. The model combines informative priors on structural coefficients and multiple external instruments to achieve identification. In order to improve identification of the credit demand shocks, I construct a new granular instrument from regional mortgage origination. I find that credit demand is quite elastic with respect to contemporaneous macro-economic conditions, while credit supply is relatively inelastic. I show that credit supply and demand shocks matter for aggregate fluctuations, albeit at different times: credit demand shocks mostly drove the boom prior to the financial crisis, while credit supply shocks were responsible during and after the crisis itself. In an out-of-sample exercise, I find that the Covid pandemic induced a large expansion of credit demand in 2020Q2, which pushed the US economy towards a sustained recovery and helped to avoid a stagflationary scenario in 2022.
In: The quarterly review of economics and finance, Band 38, Heft 4, S. 875-897
ISSN: 1062-9769
In: The Economic Journal, Band 63, Heft 251, S. 553
In: Trinity economic paper 2004,7
In: Economica, Band 45, Heft 180, S. 329
In: Economic bulletin, Band 34, Heft 8, S. 9-26
ISSN: 1438-261X
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 8814
SSRN
Working paper
In: Cahiers d'économie Politique, Band 67, Heft 2, S. 159-173
Roy Harrod [1936a] introduit la loi de l'élasticité de la demande décroissante dans son ouvrage The Trade Cycle . Dans cet article, nous nous proposons de clarifier le rôle que ce dernier assigne à cette loi dans son analyse du cycle économique. L'étude de ses fondements microéconomiques et macroéconomiques permet dans un premier temps de reconsidérer l'un des mécanismes "stabilisateurs" clés à l'œuvre au cours du cycle. Dans un second temps, l'analyse révèle la manière dont Harrod mobilise la loi de l'élasticité de la demande décroissante pour fonder microéconomiquement une fonction d'épargne non linéaire et ainsi, conclure au caractère contracyclique du multiplicateur de revenu. L'article fait finalement état des principaux commentaires dont la loi de l'élasticité de la demande a fait l'objet à la fin des années 1930.
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 14010
SSRN
Working paper
SSRN
Working paper
In: Journal of Monetary Economics, Band 52, Heft 6, S. 1089-1105