Abstract. From theory to experience, earthquake probability associated with an active fault should be gradually increasing with time since the last event. In this paper, a new non-stationary earthquake assessment motivated/derived from the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion is introduced. Different from other non-stationary earthquake analyses, the new model can more clearly define and calculate the stress states between two characteristic earthquakes. In addition to the model development and the algorithms, this paper also presents an example calculation to help explain and validate the new model. On the condition of best-estimate model parameters, the example calculation shows a 7.6 % probability for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan to induce a major earthquake in years 2015–2025, and if the earthquake does not occur by 2025, the earthquake probability will increase to 8 % in 2025–2035, which validates the new model that can calculate non-stationary earthquake probability as it should vary with time.
Post-visit attitude towards products or brands associated with destination countries is an important outcome variable overlooked in the tourism literature. Drawing upon associative network theory of memory, this study aims to contribute to the extant literature by testing tourist post-visit attitude as an outcome variable of tourism experience, in addition to destination loyalty. A conceptual model was developed and tested through a survey of Chinese tourists who have recently visited Britain. Results suggest that both tourist satisfaction of destination attributes and overall satisfaction influence post-visit product attitude. Tourism researchers could thus adopt a wider perspective to explore the influence of international tourist experiences by conceptualizing the destination country as a destination for tourism, investment, education and immigration, as well as a political partner. This paper concludes with a discussion of destination managerial and policy implications.
This is the final version of the article. Available from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this record. ; Optics-based tracking of civil structures is not new, due to historical application in surveying, but automated applications capable of tracking at rates that capture dynamic effects are now a hot research topic in structural health monitoring. Recent innovations show promise of true non-contacting monitoring capability avoiding the need for physically attached sensor arrays. The paper reviews recent experience using the Imetrum Dynamic Monitoring Station (DMS) commercial optics-based tracking system on Humber Bridge and Tamar Bridge, aiming to show both the potential and limitations. In particular, the paper focuses on the challenges to field application of such a system resulting from camera instability, nature of the target (artificial or structural feature), and illumination. The paper ends with evaluation of a non-proprietary system using a consumer-grade camera for cable vibration monitoring to emphasize the potential for lower cost systems where if performance specifications can be relaxed. ; The GPS system at Humber was created by Dr. Ki Koo with support from EPSRC grant EP/F035403/1. DH was supported via the Marie Curie Fellowship programme and as such the research leading to these results has received funding from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 330195.
Previously a conference presentation (with PowerPoint file), see link: http://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres.id-eres2009_332 ; Published later as journal article, see hub record: http://hub.hku.hk/handle/10722/81832 ; 'By reviewing the previous three asset bubble implosions, viz. (1) the ìLost Decadeî of Japan in the 1980s; (2) the Asian Financial Crisis in Hong Kong in 1997; and (3) the Financial Tsunami in the USA in 2008, a common symptom of negative real interest rate is very clearly revealed before the implosion of the three bubbles, although the bubbles might have been caused by very different reasons. Credit expansion due to negative interest rate has long been recognized since Irving Fisherís The Theory of Interest, yet in the study of the three asset bubbles, the central governments or the Federal Reserve of the US had to cut substantially the short-term interest rate for various reasons, even in a situation of extremely high inflation rate. The asset pricing bubbles are bound to be burst in the light of the resulting negative interest rate. This paper reviews the formation and the implosion of the three asset bubbles, with a focus on the temporal change of their real interest rates. It also studies the reasons why the central governments had to cut the interest rate, even when the inflation rate was high. It aims to argue that, asset bubble implosion may not be prevented nor accurately predicted though, there is a clear symptom in the markets. It also contends that, unfortunately, even if the symptom can be known, next asset bubbles would still be formed and imploded.'
Abstract. The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA) and magnitudes. Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less), the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults) region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more) from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km), Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe) using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGANTP; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M50 and MP50, respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes MVI, MVII and MVIII. Example results (from many) include the corresponding parameters describing the hazard for Revithoussa as follows: PGANTP: 203 cm s- 2 , M50: 6.5, Mp50: 6.9, MVI: 5.8, MVII: 6.1 and MVIII: 6.4. These data are also useful in selecting expected alert-signals i.e. examples of strong ground vibration histories that might be expected at a Shield station in the alert situation.
Villages have faced many crises in modern development. The architectural heritage is gradually declining in the changing social environment and is in urgent need of conservation. The research explores the methods of combining the concept of planned preventive conservation (PPC) with public participation to propose a low-tech approach of conserving rural architectural heritage, and has achieved significant outcomes in the village architectural heritage risk survey, architectural heritage monitoring and the development and use of conservation data management platform. The model has proven to be technologically and economically feasible, but still requires the support of local governments and grassroots managers for successful implementation in rural areas. Also, the way of public participation, applicability of tools and equipment, and the effectiveness of conservation need to be improved to better provide methodological guidelines for future village architectural heritage conservation practices.
This material may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the American Society of Civil Engineers. This material may be found at https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29EI.1943-5541.0000425 This study extends the existing reviews targeting the Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering Education and Practice (JPIEEP) by incorporating the text-mining review methodology. A total of 1,810 papers published in JPIEEP since 1982 were selected as the literature sample. Dividing the whole sample into four subsamples according to publication time spans, this review indicates that literature published before 2000, especially articles from the 1982 to 1991 period, emphasized more civil engineering–related practical and practical issues (e.g., legislation).
