Suchergebnisse

AbstractWe examine the interactive effect of default and interest rate risk on duration of defaultable bonds. We show that duration for defaultable bonds can be longer or shorter than default‐free bonds depending on the relation between default intensity and interest rates. Empirical evidence indicates that in most cases duration for defaultable bonds is much shorter than for their default‐free counterparts because of the negative relation between default risk and interest rates. Results suggest that the duration measure must be adjusted for the effects of default risk and stochastic interest rates to achieve an effective bond portfolio immunization.

This paper documents the economic and financial recovery of East Asia based on its real GDP, export, currency value and stock performance since the 1997 financial crisis. A macroeconomic model is used to estimate the chain effect of international trade on Asian recovery. It is found that the U.S. economy had a significant impact on the recovery of this region through close international trade relationship. Two major factors appear to explain the recent rapid recovery: (1) strong U.S. economic growth and currency value, and (2) the current account surplus and net inflow in foreign direct investment of crisis-hit countries.

Investors and professional money managers typically categorize assets into different styles to facilitate portfolio management and capital allocations. As market participants move funds among assets of different styles based on their relative performance, correlated trading generates return comovement and style momentum, and affects risk premia. This paper reviews existing literature on style investing, and presents new evidence in a large bond market. The paper shows that style is an important factor that helps explain return comovement, momentum and risk premia in a bond market traditionally dominated by institutional and long-term investors thought to be less behaviorally biased.

Previous studies have documented the informational role of order imbalances in price discovery of the Treasury market. In this paper, we explore the liquidity dimension of order imbalances. Through our research, we find evidence which indicates that order imbalances affect Treasury market liquidity. More importantly, order imbalances have significant effects on Treasury market returns and volatility, consistent with the contention that order imbalances can cause an inventory problem of marketwide concern. Results suggest that a significant portion of the effect of order imbalances on price and quoted spread is associated with the inventory premium that compensates market participants for providing liquidity to uninformed traders. The effects of order imbalances on market liquidity, returns and volatility are stronger for two- and five-year notes and Treasury bills. Furthermore, there is commonality in order imbalances. Sensitivity of order imbalances individual bonds to marketwide order imbalances varies across securities.