Prediction markets for foresight
In: Futures, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 394-404
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In: Futures, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 394-404
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 394-404
In: Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 394-405
ISSN: 0016-3287
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Working paper
In: Jaquart, P.. ([2022]). Machine Learning for Financial Market Prediction: Engineering Data-Driven Approaches for Major Developments.
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Mission statements are documents that summarize an organization's core values and strategies and are used to motivate employees by creating a common understanding among them. However, studies have shown that employees often seek more involvement in the development of mission statements in their organizations. Digitization pushes the implementation of new information and communication technology in the workplace. Therefore, we argue for the potential of using e-participation for the creation of a mission statement. With this paper, we contribute to digital government research by presenting a nominal group process consisting of eight activities, for the deployment of e-participation for the purpose of mission statement development. We evaluate the suggested process using an existing e-participation tool. Our evaluation results reveal challenges of implementing e-participation with the tested tool, especially regarding the usability. Therefore, we provide an overview of specific improvements in the design of e-participation platforms that should be considered in the further development of such ...
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Recent disputes over public construction projects show that the public is interested in urban development. When construction projects lack communication about its impact, agenda and costs, citizens might feel overheard and protests may arise. As a consequence, trust in public administration and politics could suffer serious damage. Following the idea of digital government, it is crucial not only to replicate and digitize established participation procedures, but rather to include new possibilities that e-participation offers. In this article, we present preliminary results of a qualitative study on using augmented reality for e-participation. Based on the study's results, we derive metarequirements for an e-participation application employing this technology. Interestingly, our empirical findings suggest that users only seek information via the application up to a certain level of ...
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In: Foresight: the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, Band 20, Heft 4, S. 364-374
ISSN: 1465-9832
PurposeThe selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study.Design/methodology/approachBased on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees.FindingsThe paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and the market maker attribute seem to predict informed traders the best.Originality/valueAlgorithms based on identified attributes can be used to objectify the selection of experts for Delphi studies with potential gains in terms of the amount of information considered.
In: Group decision and negotiation, Band 27, Heft 4, S. 611-636
ISSN: 1572-9907
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Working paper
In: Transportation Science, Forthcoming
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In: Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing 2
This book contains a selection of papers presented at the International Seminar 'Negotiation and Market Engineering', held at Dagstuhl Castle, Germany, in November 2006. The 17 revised full papers presented in this volume were carefully selected and reviewed after the seminar. The papers deal with the complexity of negotiations, auctions, and markets as economic, social, and IT systems. The authors give a broad overview on the major issues to be addressed and the methodologies used to approach them, covering highly interdisciplinary research from computer science, economics, business administration, and mathematics.
This book offers comprehensive business-oriented insights on trends and challenges arising from the transition to a service-lead economy. The authors examine current and future Web service business models and propose a framework for Web service Value Networks.