International audience ; This simulation study explored the agricultural household effects of changes in the price of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer for farmers in central Malawi. We selected the Dedza district to conduct this study, which is a district reliant on maize production for household livelihoods. This study used data from a household survey to develop and calibrate an agricultural household model for a representative household. The survey focused on socio-economic and agronomic factors. This included plot-level agronomic details for crop inputs and yields. Using our dynamic model, we found a negative association between fertilizer prices and fertilizer use, maize area, and income. Removing fertilizer prices led to an increased use of nitrogen fertilizer at the household scale from 16.8 kg to 49.6 kg and this helped increase household income by 52%. We calculated an average own-price elasticity of fertilizer demand of − 0.92. Although higher fertilizer prices increased legume acreage, which had potential environmental benefits, household income fell. Our benefit-cost ratio calculations suggest that government actions that deliver changes in fertilizer prices are relatively cost effective. Our study highlights the reliance of households on maize production and consumption for their livelihood, and the effects that changes in fertilizer prices can have upon them.
International audience ; This simulation study explored the agricultural household effects of changes in the price of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer for farmers in central Malawi. We selected the Dedza district to conduct this study, which is a district reliant on maize production for household livelihoods. This study used data from a household survey to develop and calibrate an agricultural household model for a representative household. The survey focused on socio-economic and agronomic factors. This included plot-level agronomic details for crop inputs and yields. Using our dynamic model, we found a negative association between fertilizer prices and fertilizer use, maize area, and income. Removing fertilizer prices led to an increased use of nitrogen fertilizer at the household scale from 16.8 kg to 49.6 kg and this helped increase household income by 52%. We calculated an average own-price elasticity of fertilizer demand of − 0.92. Although higher fertilizer prices increased legume acreage, which had potential environmental benefits, household income fell. Our benefit-cost ratio calculations suggest that government actions that deliver changes in fertilizer prices are relatively cost effective. Our study highlights the reliance of households on maize production and consumption for their livelihood, and the effects that changes in fertilizer prices can have upon them.
International audience ; This simulation study explored the agricultural household effects of changes in the price of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer for farmers in central Malawi. We selected the Dedza district to conduct this study, which is a district reliant on maize production for household livelihoods. This study used data from a household survey to develop and calibrate an agricultural household model for a representative household. The survey focused on socio-economic and agronomic factors. This included plot-level agronomic details for crop inputs and yields. Using our dynamic model, we found a negative association between fertilizer prices and fertilizer use, maize area, and income. Removing fertilizer prices led to an increased use of nitrogen fertilizer at the household scale from 16.8 kg to 49.6 kg and this helped increase household income by 52%. We calculated an average own-price elasticity of fertilizer demand of − 0.92. Although higher fertilizer prices increased legume acreage, which had potential environmental benefits, household income fell. Our benefit-cost ratio calculations suggest that government actions that deliver changes in fertilizer prices are relatively cost effective. Our study highlights the reliance of households on maize production and consumption for their livelihood, and the effects that changes in fertilizer prices can have upon them.
This simulation study explored the agricultural household effects of changes in the price of inorganic nitrogen fertilizer for farmers in central Malawi. We selected the Dedza district to conduct this study, which is a district reliant on maize production for household livelihoods. This study used data from a household survey to develop and calibrate an agricultural household model for a representative household. The survey focused on socio-economic and agronomic factors. This included plot-level agronomic details for crop inputs and yields. Using our dynamic model, we found a negative association between fertilizer prices and fertilizer use, maize area, and income. Removing fertilizer prices led to an increased use of nitrogen fertilizer at the household scale from 16.8 kg to 49.6 kg and this helped increase household income by 52%. We calculated an average own-price elasticity of fertilizer demand of − 0.92. Although higher fertilizer prices increased legume acreage, which had potential environmental benefits, household income fell. Our benefit-cost ratio calculations suggest that government actions that deliver changes in fertilizer prices are relatively cost effective. Our study highlights the reliance of households on maize production and consumption for their livelihood, and the effects that changes in fertilizer prices can have upon them.
It is estimated that the human footprint has affected 83% of the global terrestrial land surface and has degraded about 60% of the ecosystems services in the past 50 years alone. Land use and land cover (LUCC) change has been the most visible indicator of the human footprint and the most important driver of loss of biodiversity and other forms of land degradation. Recent trends on global demand for food and bioenergy change - which are closely linked to food and energy price spikes and volatility - have raised concerns on the impact of LUCC change on biodiversity and other environmental impacts. Additionally, LUCC change could lead to natural resource degradation - which affect the poor the most since they heavily depend on natural resources. Since the earth Summit in 1992, the international community, individual countries, communities, civil society and businesses have increasingly become aware of the environmental impact of LUCC change. This paper assesses the LUCC change and explores factors which could be addressed to ensure sustainable development. The paper is divided into five sections and the first one begins by exploring what science tells us about LUCC change. The second section uses three case study countries to discuss how LUCC changes happen in practice. This is followed by an analysis of the land management programs and the effectiveness of market-based instruments. The fourth section discusses LUCC modeling and the last section concludes the paper by looking at the future prospects of LUCC change.
In the African drylands, livestock is the main source of food, income and livelihood for millions of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists who are very vulnerable and exposed to climate change. Our understanding of livestock contribution to food security and rural development as well as climate change adaptation issues in these areas is still quite poor and limits our capacity to guide interventions for building resilience. This paper presents a modelling framework for livestock productivity under climate constraints. It is the result of a collaboration between FAO, CIRAD, IFPRI and Action contre la Faim (ACF), for a contribution to the World Bank study on the economics of resilience in the African drylands. The methodology relies on the integration of four models and a participative interaction with local livestock experts: biomass availability under various climate scenarios (baseline, mild drought, severe drought) for the period 2012-2030 was computed by Biogenerator (ACF); livestock population dynamics and feed requirements for different interventions (baseline, animal health improvements, male cattle early offtake) were extracted from MMAGE (CIRAD); feed rations and balances were calculated by GLEAM (FAO) and levels of demand, supply and prices were analysed with IMPACT (IFPRI). Results show that interventions can significantly increase the output of livestock products (5% to 20% in meat production) if accessibility to feed is improved. This can be achieved through enhancing livestock mobility, developing feed processing and transport and supporting market integration. Livestock systems have the potential to buffer climatic variability through consecutive filters and management decisions: mobility, animal physiology, feeding practices, herd management and eventually milk production and offtake rates. Livestock proves to be a significant asset for adaptation to climate change and interventions should be designed to fully take advantage of this potential. (Texte intégral)
La croissance incontrôlée des émissions de gaz à effet de serre est en train de réchauffer la planète, avec pour conséquences la fonte des glaciers, l'augmentation des précipitations, la multiplication de phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes, et le décalage des saisons. L'accélération du changement climatique, jointe à la croissance de la population et du revenu au niveau mondial, menace partout la sécurité alimentaire. L'agriculture est extrêmement sensible au changement climatique. Des températures plus élevées diminuent les rendements des cultures utiles tout en entrainant une prolifération des mauvaises herbes et des parasites. La modification des régimes de précipitations augmente la probabilité de mauvaises récoltes à Court terme et d'une baisse de la production à long terme. Bien que certaines régions du monde puissent enregistrer une amélioration de quelques unes de leurs cultures, le changement climatique aura généralement des impacts négatifs sur l'agriculture et menacera la sécurité alimentaire au niveau mondial. Les populations du monde en développement, déjà vulnérables et exposées à l'insécurité alimentaire, seront vraisemblablement les plus gravement affectées. En 2005, près de la moitié de la population économiquement active des pays en développement, soit 2,5 milliards de personnes, tirait le principal de ses ressources de l'agriculture. Aujourd'hui, 75% des pauvres du monde vivent dans des zones rurales. Ce Rapport sur les politiques alimentaires présente les résultats de recherches qui quantifient les impacts du changement climatique mentionnés ci-dessus, évalue leurs conséquences sur la sécurité alimentaire, et estime le volume d'investissements qu'il faudrait consentir pour éviter les conséquences négatives de ce changement sur le bien-être de l'humanité. Cette analyse associe, pour la première fois, la modélisation détaillée de la croissance des cultures soumises au changement climatique aux connaissances apportées par un modèle agricole global extrêmement détaillé, sur la base de deux scénarios pour simuler le climat à venir. Les résultats de cette analyse suggèrent que **l'agriculture et le bien-être de l'humanité seront négativement affectés par le changement climatique**: * Dans les pays en développement, le changement climatique provoquera une baisse de la production des cultures les plus importantes. Cette baisse se fera particulièrement sentir dans l'Asie du Sud. * Le changement climatique aura des effets variables sur le rendement des cultures irriguées selon les régions, mais en Asie du Sud les rendements de toutes les cultures irriguées subiront de fortes baisses. * Le changement climatique amplifiera la hausse des prix des principaux produits agricoles: riz, blé, maïs et soja. Le fourrage, plus cher, entrainera une augmentation des prix de la viande, avec deux conséquences: un léger ralentissement de la croissance de la consommation de viande, et une accélération substantielle de la diminution de la consommation de céréales. * En 2050, la disponibilité en calories sera non seulement inférieure à celle d'un scénario sans changement climatique: en fait elle sera inférieure aux niveaux de l'an 2000 dans l'ensemble du monde en développement! * En 2050, la baisse de la disponibilité en calories augmentera la malnutrition infantile de 20 % par rapport à un scénario sans changement climatique. De plus, le changement climatique éliminerait une grande partie des gains qui auraient pu être réalisés en matière de malnutrition infantile en l'absence de changement climatique. * Des investissements de productivité agricole agressifs, de l'ordre de 7,1 à 7,3 milliards d'US$2, sont donc nécessaires pour accroître la consommation de calories de façon à neutraliser les impacts négatifs du changement climatique sur la santé et le bien-être des enfants. ; PR ; IFPRI1 ; EPTD
Stresses that livestock-keeping remains one of the most important livelihood activities practiced in African drylands, with production of meat and milk typically comprising 5–15 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP) and up to 60 percent of agricultural GDP. Future feed and animal resources will prove insufficient to provide secure and adequate livelihoods for people depending on livestock as their principal livelihood source, however. By 2030, about 77 percent of pastoralist households and 58 percent of agro-pastoralist households will prove unable to accumulate the numbers of animals needed to subsist even at 50 percent of the poverty line. Investments in improving animal health services, feed resources, and increasing market integration, could help livestock-keeping households remain resilient, but the development of alternative sources of income must remain an integral component of any dryland development strategy. Government policies designed to sedentarize pastoralists, particularly in the more arid zones, will only reduce productivity and exacerbate poverty.
The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed at IFPRI at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policy-makers and researchers about the actions that are necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. In 1993, these same long-term global concerns launched the 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Initiative which created the opportunity for further development of the IMPACT model. In 1995 the first results using IMPACT were published as a 2020 Vision discussion paper: Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant et al. 1995) in which the effects of population, investment, and trade scenarios on food security and nutrition status, especially in developing countries, were analyzed. IMPACT continues to serve as the basis for research examining the linkage between the production of key food commodities and food demand and security at the national level in the context of scenarios of future change. Studies focus on regional issues, commodity-level analyses, and cross-cutting thematic issues. IMPACT is also embedded in a variety of major global assessments to complement interdisciplinary, scenario-based work on the future of food supply and demand. The first comprehensive set of results for IMPACT were published in the book Global Food Projections to 2020 (Rosegrant et al. 2001). These projections—which were presented in 2001 at the IFPRI-sponsored conference in Bonn entitled: Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020—are presented with details on the demand system and other underlying data used in the projections work, and cover both global and regionally-focused projections. A complete list of the research published using the IMPACT modeling framework is provided in Appendix 1, including reports for international organizations, such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the FAO, and national governments. NOTE: The 2008 version is superceded by this 2012 version, and the 2008 version is retained for archival purposes and researching using this model should use the documentation from 2012. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP38; HarvestChoice ; EPTD
