Suchergebnisse

An important physical response to anthropogenic climate change is the long term rise in global mean sea-level (GMSL). Given this context the French National Alliance for Environmental Research, which brings together the main French research institutions concerned with environment, tasked its foresight group with shedding light on sea-level rise by 2100, estimating the possible impacts and consequences for the environment and societies, and recommending future research priorities.We employ a foresight approach based on the scenario method with 23 driving variables for the coastal system and four physical contexts for the sea-level rise (moderate, serious, severe and extreme) leading to the development of eight contrasted and unconnected scenarios starting in 2020 and extending to 2100. Each scenario is defined by a storyline. Storylines are determined mainly by coastal adaptation efforts and the political will to mitigate climate change. These are structured in three families: (1) Priority given to adaptation (four scenarios: Climate control, Frugality and anticipation, Resilient cities, Early adaptation and late mitigation), (2) Denial of the phenomenon (three scenarios: Passivity, Gradual coastal abandonment, From denial to reaction) and (3) Fragmented world (one scenario: Persistent fragmentation).Scenario trajectories without vigorous and widespread mitigation policies before 2040 show that coastal States will have to deal with 'severe' or 'extreme' sea level rise by the end of the century. 'Severe' or 'Extreme' sea level rise outcomes are envisaged in five of the eight scenarios in the range of possible futures. Two scenarios lead to 'serious' sea level rise and one ideal scenario leads to a 'moderate' state. Adaptation efforts will be less cumbersome and costly when mitigation efforts have been early, widespread and sustained. The optimal scenario considers raising awareness of all actors in societies, leading to the introduction of fast and radical mitigation and adaptation efforts. All other scenarios ...

An important physical response to anthropogenic climate change is the long term rise in global mean sea-level (GMSL). Given this context the French National Alliance for Environmental Research, which brings together the main French research institutions concerned with environment, tasked its foresight group with shedding light on sea-level rise by 2100, estimating the possible impacts and consequences for the environment and societies, and recommending future research priorities.We employ a foresight approach based on the scenario method with 23 driving variables for the coastal system and four physical contexts for the sea-level rise (moderate, serious, severe and extreme) leading to the development of eight contrasted and unconnected scenarios starting in 2020 and extending to 2100. Each scenario is defined by a storyline. Storylines are determined mainly by coastal adaptation efforts and the political will to mitigate climate change. These are structured in three families: (1) Priority given to adaptation (four scenarios: Climate control, Frugality and anticipation, Resilient cities, Early adaptation and late mitigation), (2) Denial of the phenomenon (three scenarios: Passivity, Gradual coastal abandonment, From denial to reaction) and (3) Fragmented world (one scenario: Persistent fragmentation).Scenario trajectories without vigorous and widespread mitigation policies before 2040 show that coastal States will have to deal with 'severe' or 'extreme' sea level rise by the end of the century. 'Severe' or 'Extreme' sea level rise outcomes are envisaged in five of the eight scenarios in the range of possible futures. Two scenarios lead to 'serious' sea level rise and one ideal scenario leads to a 'moderate' state. Adaptation efforts will be less cumbersome and costly when mitigation efforts have been early, widespread and sustained. The optimal scenario considers raising awareness of all actors in societies, leading to the introduction of fast and radical mitigation and adaptation efforts. All other scenarios ...

An important physical response to anthropogenic climate change is the long term rise in global mean sea-level (GMSL). Given this context the French National Alliance for Environmental Research, which brings together the main French research institutions concerned with environment, tasked its foresight group with shedding light on sea-level rise by 2100, estimating the possible impacts and consequences for the environment and societies, and recommending future research priorities.We employ a foresight approach based on the scenario method with 23 driving variables for the coastal system and four physical contexts for the sea-level rise (moderate, serious, severe and extreme) leading to the development of eight contrasted and unconnected scenarios starting in 2020 and extending to 2100. Each scenario is defined by a storyline. Storylines are determined mainly by coastal adaptation efforts and the political will to mitigate climate change. These are structured in three families: (1) Priority given to adaptation (four scenarios: Climate control, Frugality and anticipation, Resilient cities, Early adaptation and late mitigation), (2) Denial of the phenomenon (three scenarios: Passivity, Gradual coastal abandonment, From denial to reaction) and (3) Fragmented world (one scenario: Persistent fragmentation).Scenario trajectories without vigorous and widespread mitigation policies before 2040 show that coastal States will have to deal with 'severe' or 'extreme' sea level rise by the end of the century. 'Severe' or 'Extreme' sea level rise outcomes are envisaged in five of the eight scenarios in the range of possible futures. Two scenarios lead to 'serious' sea level rise and one ideal scenario leads to a 'moderate' state. Adaptation efforts will be less cumbersome and costly when mitigation efforts have been early, widespread and sustained. The optimal scenario considers raising awareness of all actors in societies, leading to the introduction of fast and radical mitigation and adaptation efforts. All other scenarios ...

Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. The second means that we should consider that a 'perfect storm', induced by climate change and an ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows.