Political Conditions and the Electoral Effects of Redistricting
In: American politics research, Band 41, Heft 4, S. 623-650
ISSN: 1532-673X
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In: American politics research, Band 41, Heft 4, S. 623-650
ISSN: 1532-673X
In: American politics research, Band 41, Heft 4, S. 623-650
ISSN: 1552-3373
Redistricting can have considerable electoral consequences because it undermines the incumbency advantage. Numerous voters are drawn into districts with a different incumbent seeking reelection. With regard to vote choice, these redrawn constituents rely more on their partisanship and prevailing political conditions because they lack familiarity with their new representative. Macropartisanship, the aggregate party identification of the electorate, is an excellent barometer of the political climate and hence the partisan direction guiding voters. Because redrawn constituents have at best a tenuous bond with their new incumbent, partisan tides have more influence on their vote choice. Analyses of the 1992 and 2002 U.S. House elections show that higher district percentages of redrawn constituents significantly reduced the vote shares of southern Democratic representatives in 1992 and Democratic incumbents regardless of region in 2002. Given the stated behavioral implications associated with redistricting, these findings speak to the political conditions occurring at the time of these respective elections: a Republican realignment picking up steam in the South in 1992 and a short-term national GOP tide in the first post-9/11 midterm.
In: Southern cultures, Band 18, Heft 3, S. 95-117
ISSN: 1534-1488
In: Perspectives on politics, Band 9, Heft 2, S. 448-449
ISSN: 1541-0986
In: The journal of politics: JOP, Band 71, Heft 2, S. 762-763
ISSN: 1468-2508
In: The journal of politics: JOP, Band 71, Heft 2, S. 762-763
ISSN: 0022-3816
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 41, Heft 1, S. 101-108
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
World Affairs Online
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 41, Heft 1, S. 101-108
In political science, urban politics is a well-established subfield. And more recently, suburban political behavior has received a fair amount of attention (Gainsborough 2001; 2005; McKee and Shaw 2003; Oliver 2001). But with a few exceptions (see Francia and Baumgartner 2005–2006; Gimpel and Karnes 2006), the political behavior of rural residents has been conspicuously absent thus far in a growing literature on the political role of place. This is quite surprising given the clamoring in the popular press about "red states" versus "blue states" in the most recent presidential contests. All of the post-presidential election maps that highlight red Republican counties and blue Democratic counties display a sea of red covering the vast swaths of rural, middle America. The ocean of Republican red is enough to make one ask: What's the Matter with Kansas? (Frank 2004)—one of those thinly populated plains states with hardly a glimmer of blue on a county-level map of the 2004 presidential election.
In: Political research quarterly: PRQ ; official journal of the Western Political Science Association and other associations, Band 61, Heft 1, S. 122-133
ISSN: 1938-274X
Although numerous studies have assessed the influence of the 1990s redistricting on U.S. House elections, without exception, these published studies rely on aggregate data (e.g., district-level data). Likewise, the author uses aggregate data, but he also departs from previous studies by using survey data to assess the influence of redistricting on vote choice in the 1992 and 1994 U.S. House elections. Unlike past studies, with the use of survey data, the author makes more definitive statements regarding the effects of redistricting on vote choice. The 1990s redistricting was an important factor contributing to the Republicans' House majority because voters drawn into districts with a different incumbent standing for reelection were much more likely to vote Republican.
In: Journal of political marketing: political campaigns in the new millennium, Band 7, Heft 1, S. 69-91
ISSN: 1537-7865
In: American politics research, Band 36, Heft 6, S. 962
ISSN: 1532-673X
In: Political research quarterly: PRQ ; official journal of Western Political Science Association, Pacific Northwest Political Science Association, Southern California Political Science Association, Northern California Political Science Association, Band 61, Heft 1, S. 122-133
ISSN: 1065-9129
In: American politics research, Band 36, Heft 6, S. 962-979
ISSN: 1552-3373
Redistricting has the effect of placing numerous voters into districts with a different incumbent seeking reelection. This event brings up an important question that has not been empirically tested: Are redrawn individuals, those who have a new incumbent because of redistricting, less likely to know who their new representative is? Furthermore, is there a difference in the rates of recall and recognition of challengers as a consequence of redistricting? This research note examines the influence of redistricting on recall and recognition of U.S. House candidates with use of the American National Elections Studies panel surveys for the 1992 and 2002 elections. Whether the measure is recall or recognition, redrawn respondents are significantly less likely to identify their incumbent as compared with individuals with the same incumbent seeking reelection. In contrast, with the exception of candidate name recall in 1992, redistricting does not affect the likelihood of identifying House challengers. This study demonstrates that redistricting constitutes another institutional feature of the American electoral system that raises the costs of political information because redrawn constituents are less familiar with their new representative.
In: The Forum: a journal of applied research in contemporary politics, Band 5, Heft 2
ISSN: 1540-8884
The ``Red" versus ``Blue" state debate has reached a fever pitch in popular commentary, but scholars have contributed very little to the discussion by way of examining rural voting behavior. With the use of national exit poll data, this study attempts to fill this considerable void, with a detailed analysis of rural voters in the 1992-2004 presidential elections. In 1992 and 1996 the rural vote was split between the parties, but in 2000 the rural vote shifted decidedly in favor of Republican George W. Bush and it stayed with the incumbent in 2004. This research on the voting behavior of rural voters in recent presidential elections documents and evaluates the many differences between rural and non-rural voters, and accounts for several of the factors leading to an increase in rural Republican voting in 2000 and 2004. The conventional wisdom that rural voters are more likely to be so-called values voters is true and this translates into greater Republican support. Further, on virtually every survey item in which their non-rural counterparts share the same survey response, rural voters are consistently more Republican in their presidential vote choice. Dissatisfaction with President Clinton—termed Clinton fatigue—was much more pronounced among rural voters and this was a major reason for the strong rural shift in favor of the Republican Party in 2000.
In: Party politics: an international journal for the study of political parties and political organizations, Band 13, Heft 4, S. 530-532
ISSN: 1460-3683