Suchergebnisse

Evidence indicates that trade costs are a much more substantial barrier to trade than tariffs are, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper decomposes trade costs into: (i) trade facilitation, (ii) non-tariff barriers, and (iii) the costs of business services. The paper assesses the poverty and shared prosperity impacts of deep integration to reduce these three types of trade costs in: (i) the East African Customs Union–Common Market of East and Southern Africa–South African Development Community "Tripartite" Free Trade Area; (ii) within the East African Customs Union; and (iii) unilaterally by the East African Customs Union. The analysis employs an innovative, multi-region computable general equilibrium model to estimate the changes in the macroeconomic variables that impact poverty and shared prosperity. The model estimates are used in the Global Income Distribution Dynamics microsimulation model to obtain assessments of the changes in the poverty headcount and shared prosperity for each of the simulations for the six African regions or countries. The paper finds that these reforms are pro-poor. There are significant reductions in the poverty headcount and the percentage of the population living in poverty for all six of the African regions from deep integration in the Tripartite Free Trade Area or comparable unilateral reforms by the East African Customs Union. Further, the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the populations noticeably increase in all countries or regions that are engaged in the trade reforms. The reason for the poor share in prosperity is the fact that the reforms increase unskilled wages faster than the rewards of other factors of production, as the reforms tend to favor agriculture. Despite the uniform increases in income for the poorest 40 percent, there are some cases where the share of income captured by the poorest 40 percent of the population decreases. The estimated gains vary considerably across countries and reforms. Thus, countries would have an interest in negotiating for different reforms in different agreements.

The global food price shock of 2006-2008 has particularly affected poorer strata of populations in several developing countries. In Egypt and some other countries it has put food subsidy schemes to the test. This paper develops two comparable computable general equilibrium models for Egypt and Ukraine which are used to simulate direct and indirect impacts of the food price surge and various policy options on the performance of the main macroeconomic indicators as well as on poverty outcomes. The results illustrate the limited ability of realistic policy responses to mitigate negative social consequences of an external price shock. Food import tariff cuts are a partial remedy faring better than other analysed options. Furthermore, the Egyptian system of food subsidies needs substantial reforms limiting the related fiscal burden and improving the targeting of the poor population.

This study evaluates the effects of the current Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Agreement for the EU and the Mediterranean region, in order to assist policy makers in defining the next steps in the Euro-Mediterranean Road map till 2010 and beyond. It provides quantitative, qualitative and sectoral assessment of the impacts of the Euro-Mediterranean FTA on trade and investment, points out the partnerships' strengths and weaknesses and provides policy recommendations with the view of realizing a goal of a well functioning free trade area in the future. The focus of the study is on Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia (MED5). [.]

Our mandate was to consider the economic feasibility and possible impact of a free trade agreement between the European Union and Armenia. The study has been conducted by a group of researchers from Poland, Ukraine, UK, US and Armenia. All have worked on this project in an independent capacity. The European Commission has also commissioned a similar study for Georgia. Even though the methodology of the two reports is the same, the two studies are independent and the economic feasibility and impact of a free trade agreement with each country is assessed on its own merits. [.]

Our mandate was to consider the economic feasibility and possible impact of a free trade agreement between the European Union and Georgia. The study has been conducted by a group of researchers from Poland, Ukraine, UK, US and Georgia. All have worked on this project in an independent capacity. The European Commission has also commissioned a similar study for Armenia. Even though the methodology of the two reports is the same, the two studies are independent and the economic feasibility and impact of a free trade agreement with each country is assessed on its own merits. [.]