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International audience ; The aim of the next negotiations between Parties until the Twenty-first Conference of Parties (COP 21) which will be held in Paris in 2015 is to reach an international agreement involving as many countries as possible, in order to reduce CO2 emissions sufficiently and stay in line with the ultimate 2°C objective of the UNFCCC. A strong climate policy in line with this 2°C objective requires a global contribution, whether countries are industrialized or developing, or especially fast developing or emerging. However, debates highlights the fact that it is primarily up to industrialized countries to keep their promise of helping countries develop a record of adapting to the impacts of climate change, and nothing is certain as regards the possible level of CO2 emission reduction that developing countries will be able to attain or, even, accept to reduce. In terms of cost, a larger contribution from developing countries is less expensive than strong emission mitigation in industrialized countries, as expressed by the decision to allow flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol (i.e. develop GHG emissions mitigation projects where the carbon abatement cost can be lower). But this is not sufficient. Could we reach an ambitious, and necessary, climate target without the participation of developing countries? In the same manner, a key feature of the Copenhagen agreement and of the future accord is the participation of the United States of America and non-Annex I countries, especially China, as they represent a large share of global CO2 emissions. China and the USA are the largest global emitters of CO2 and, as concerning developing countries, without their participation in a climate agreement the latter cannot really ensure achieving stabilized CO2 concentration and global temperatures. Various climate scenarios are implemented in the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR and analyzed to explore the effects of a possible international coordination on main environmental and economic indicators. ...

International audience ; The aim of the next negotiations between Parties until the Twenty-first Conference of Parties (COP 21) which will be held in Paris in 2015 is to reach an international agreement involving as many countries as possible, in order to reduce CO2 emissions sufficiently and stay in line with the ultimate 2°C objective of the UNFCCC. A strong climate policy in line with this 2°C objective requires a global contribution, whether countries are industrialized or developing, or especially fast developing or emerging. However, debates highlights the fact that it is primarily up to industrialized countries to keep their promise of helping countries develop a record of adapting to the impacts of climate change, and nothing is certain as regards the possible level of CO2 emission reduction that developing countries will be able to attain or, even, accept to reduce. In terms of cost, a larger contribution from developing countries is less expensive than strong emission mitigation in industrialized countries, as expressed by the decision to allow flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol (i.e. develop GHG emissions mitigation projects where the carbon abatement cost can be lower). But this is not sufficient. Could we reach an ambitious, and necessary, climate target without the participation of developing countries? In the same manner, a key feature of the Copenhagen agreement and of the future accord is the participation of the United States of America and non-Annex I countries, especially China, as they represent a large share of global CO2 emissions. China and the USA are the largest global emitters of CO2 and, as concerning developing countries, without their participation in a climate agreement the latter cannot really ensure achieving stabilized CO2 concentration and global temperatures. Various climate scenarios are implemented in the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR and analyzed to explore the effects of a possible international coordination on main environmental and economic indicators. The impacts of different commitment levels under post-Copenhagen and/or global long-term climate policies can thereby be discussed and provide some understanding on the stakes and issues. Particularly, do developing countries have the capacity to implement policies to reduce emissions given that their priority is development and energy supply? What is expected from industrialized countries like Europe? What are the technological possibilities considering the state of development of their energy systems and the evolution of their needs? The main focus is, in a first part, on the ambition of the various climate policies regarding CO2 emissions at global and regional level. In a second part, we discuss the impact of international climate change strategies to the energy system, and particularly on the electricity generation In this context, discussions investigate long-term solutions, and particularly the development of CCS technologies or renewables, in response to a constraint that influences the energy mix.

International audience The reliability of power supply, defined as the ability to recover a steady-state condition after a sudden disturbance, is crucial for operating power systems. It is usually ensured by controlling voltage and frequency deviations and involves events occurring from a few milliseconds to a few hours. However, reliability requirements are largely ignored when dealing with long-term issues. To reconcile such contrasting timescales, it seems logical to rely on energy considerations based on thermodynamics. Two reliability indicators, assessing the magnetic and kinetic energy reserves of a power system, are derived from this approach. They enable to quantify the reliability of a given production mix and make it possible to choose between increasing shares of intermittent sources and maintaining an expected level of reliability. Since the indicators tackle reliability issues without focusing on a specific timescale, they are effective for both discussing the long-term evolution of reliability and improving the real-time management of a power system.

The accident in Fukushima, Japan, in March 2011 has reactivated the discussion on how to meet ambitious climate mitigation objectives as some European countries reconsider the contribution of nuclear power in their energy mix. This study evaluates the impact of nuclear power reduction in Europe on the electricity mix under carbon emission reduction scenarios while considering the availability of carbon capture and storage technological options. The potential cost of carbon reduction is also addressed using the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR. The results suggest that CCS technologies constitute an interesting option in a case of stringent climate targets and limited nuclear electricity. However, the unavailability of CCS technologies induces a significant increase in carbon cost to achieve the climate policy.

The accident in Fukushima, Japan, in March 2011 has reactivated the discussion on how to meet ambitious climate mitigation objectives as some European countries reconsider the contribution of nuclear power in their energy mix. This study evaluates the impact of nuclear power reduction in Europe on the electricity mix under carbon emission reduction scenarios while considering the availability of carbon capture and storage technological options. The potential cost of carbon reduction is also addressed using the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR. The results suggest that CCS technologies constitute an interesting option in a case of stringent climate targets and limited nuclear electricity. However, the unavailability of CCS technologies induces a significant increase in carbon cost to achieve the climate policy.

International audience ; Reunion Island, a French overseas region located in the Indian Ocean, is facing a three-fold challenge combining demographics, the environment and energy. To limit its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels, Reunion Island aims to achieve energy autonomy by 2030 based on greater energy efficiency and renewable energy alternatives. The objective of this study is to analyze different scenarios to reach electricity autonomy and, at the same time, consider the wide-scale integration of renewable energy in the island's power system using the bottom-up optimization energy model TIMES-Reunion. Despite the tremendous potential of renewable energy sources present on the island, the transition to 100% renewable energy needs to be supported by incentives or constraints. Strong energy policies can both direct the choice of renewable resources and accelerate the renewable transition. The development of biomass on Reunion Island is economically interesting. The transition scenarios show that by 2030, electricity from biomass advantageously replaces electricity from coal and represents slightly more than 50% of electricity generation. Solar and wave/ocean energies are not the most cost effective option, but wind energy tends to disappear in the face of these energies more politically supported. A network regulation rule benefits biomass and is more detrimental to solar than to wave energy. The decarbonized transition of the power system incurs higher total discounted system costs due to the additional costs induced by the different incentives to promote certain renewables, with some pathways toward energy autonomy appearing more costly than others.

International audience ; Reunion Island, a French overseas region located in the Indian Ocean, is facing a three-fold challenge combining demographics, the environment and energy. To limit its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels, Reunion Island aims to achieve energy autonomy by 2030 based on greater energy efficiency and renewable energy alternatives. The objective of this study is to analyze different scenarios to reach electricity autonomy and, at the same time, consider the wide-scale integration of renewable energy in the island's power system using the bottom-up optimization energy model TIMES-Reunion. Despite the tremendous potential of renewable energy sources present on the island, the transition to 100% renewable energy needs to be supported by incentives or constraints. Strong energy policies can both direct the choice of renewable resources and accelerate the renewable transition. The development of biomass on Reunion Island is economically interesting. The transition scenarios show that by 2030, electricity from biomass advantageously replaces electricity from coal and represents slightly more than 50% of electricity generation. Solar and wave/ocean energies are not the most cost effective option, but wind energy tends to disappear in the face of these energies more politically supported. A network regulation rule benefits biomass and is more detrimental to solar than to wave energy. The decarbonized transition of the power system incurs higher total discounted system costs due to the additional costs induced by the different incentives to promote certain renewables, with some pathways toward energy autonomy appearing more costly than others.

International audience ; Reunion Island, a French overseas region located in the Indian Ocean, is facing a three-fold challenge combining demographics, the environment and energy. To limit its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels, Reunion Island aims to achieve energy autonomy by 2030 based on greater energy efficiency and renewable energy alternatives. The objective of this study is to analyze different scenarios to reach electricity autonomy and, at the same time, consider the wide-scale integration of renewable energy in the island's power system using the bottom-up optimization energy model TIMES-Reunion. Despite the tremendous potential of renewable energy sources present on the island, the transition to 100% renewable energy needs to be supported by incentives or constraints. Strong energy policies can both direct the choice of renewable resources and accelerate the renewable transition. The development of biomass on Reunion Island is economically interesting. The transition scenarios show that by 2030, electricity from biomass advantageously replaces electricity from coal and represents slightly more than 50% of electricity generation. Solar and wave/ocean energies are not the most cost effective option, but wind energy tends to disappear in the face of these energies more politically supported. A network regulation rule benefits biomass and is more detrimental to solar than to wave energy. The decarbonized transition of the power system incurs higher total discounted system costs due to the additional costs induced by the different incentives to promote certain renewables, with some pathways toward energy autonomy appearing more costly than others.

International audience The aim of this article is to take into account short-term power grid operation conditions in long-term prospective analysis in the case of France. It is the first time that the integration of system adequacy and transient stability has been achieved in prospective studies for an electro intensive country, following studies conducted on Reunion Island. The methodology relies on a quantitative assessment of the French power sector's reliability through an endogenous definition of a reliability indicator related to kinetic reserves into an Energy System Optimization Model (ESOM), TIMES-FR model. The result gives an overview of how the stability of the grid is maintained with an increasing share of renewables using additional backup and flexible options. We observe that it is technically possible to achieve around 65% of Variable Renewable Energy sources (VREs) in the installed capacity without impairing the reliability of the system. In more detail, the maximum VRE in total hourly power production that complies with the reliability constraint was assessed as around 84% in the 100 EnR scenario. However, in order to guarantee this system reliability, the cumulated new installed capacity, in a scenario with 100% renewable energy sources (RES) in the power mix, would represent the double of the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario over the period 2013-2050. Therefore, major upstream planning would be needed, and that more flexible options i.e. demand-response, storage technologies and interconnections or substitute or additional plants should be considered to satisfy the reliability constraint at any time by providing extra inertia to the system. This modelling exercise shows the importance of power exchanges with neighbours with higher share of RE in the power production.

As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic ...

International audience ; As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary ...

Abstract As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic analysis, community building, and by suggesting next steps for evaluating this body of literature.

International audience ; As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary ...

International audience ; As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary ...

As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for interdisciplinary collaboration, synthetic analysis, community building, and by suggesting next steps for evaluating this body of literature.