Would more restrictive immigration policies stop individuals from migrating? We present an agent-based computational model, calibrated using original survey and experimental data, which represents an important step in estimating the "substitution effect" whereby migrants reorient toward unauthorized channels due to changes in policy. We find that government-imposed restrictions on migrants can decrease total migration. However, some restrictions are highly ineffective while others decrease legal migration only at the cost of driving migrants into unauthorized channels. Restrictions on students and high-skilled workers are least effective in reducing migration, and restrictions on family-based visas are especially counterproductive in diverting migrants to back channels. We also find that increasing enforcement would not effectively eliminate the diversion to unauthorized channels.
Explaining why crime is spatially concentrated has been a central theme of much criminological research. Although various theories focus on neighborhood social processes, environmental criminology asserts that the physical environment plays a central role by shaping people's activity patterns and the opportunities for crime. Here, we test theoretical expectations regarding the role of the road network in shaping the spatial distribution of crime and, in contrast to prior research, disentangle how it might influence offender awareness of criminal opportunities and the supply of ambient guardianship. With a mixed logit (discrete choice) model, we use data regarding (N = 459) residential burglaries (for the first time) to model offender spatial decision‐making at the street segment level. Novel graph theory metrics are developed to estimate offender awareness of street segments and to estimate levels of ambient guardianship, distinguishing between local and nonlocal guardianship. As predicted by crime pattern theory, novel metrics concerning offender familiarity and effort were significant predictors of residential burglary location choices. And, in line with Newman's (1972) concept of defensible space, nonlocal (local) pedestrian traffic was found to be associated with an increase (decrease) in burglary risk. Our findings also demonstrate that "taste" preferences vary across offenders, which presents a challenge for future research to explain.
In: Political geography: an interdisciplinary journal for all students of political studies with an interest in the geographical and spatial aspects, Band 68, S. 12-22
A key part of the evidence base for practitioners and policymakers includes the costs of interventions and the returns yielded from incurring those costs. However, to date crime reduction work economic analyses have been uncommon and even when undertaken have been partial, technically weak and insufficiently informed by economic theory. This book explains what economic analysis is, why it is important, and forms it can take. Costs are important in all forms of economic analysis although their collection tends to be partial and inadequate in capturing key information. A practical guide to the collection is therefore also provided. The book will be of great interest to students in economics and advanced students in policing and crime reduction as well as to analysts and decision makers in policing and crime reduction.
Research demonstrates that certain crime prevention techniques work. Accordingly, current evaluations focus on what works and where. One of the key elements in assessing crime prevention success is determining the number of crimes prevented. This allows the cost-effectiveness of schemes to be assessed and different schemes to be meaningfully compared. Evaluation studies of what works include a variety of different approaches, some more robust than others. The current article presents two methods for calculating the outcomes of crime prevention interventions. The basic principle behind both approaches involves subtracting the observed number of crimes from an estimate of the number of crimes that would have occurred had the scheme not existed. Importantly, it is acknowledged that area crime rates are influenced both by general trends and more random factors. Thus, each approach produces a range of estimates to attempt to assess the impact of more random influences.
Abstract Background Cryptocurrency fraud has become a growing global concern, with various governments reporting an increase in the frequency of and losses from cryptocurrency scams. Despite increasing fraudulent activity involving cryptocurrencies, research on the potential of cryptocurrencies for fraud has not been examined in a systematic study. This review examines the current state of knowledge about what kinds of cryptocurrency fraud currently exist, or are expected to exist in the future, and provides comprehensive definitions of the frauds identified.
Methods The study involved a scoping review of academic research and grey literature on cryptocurrency fraud and a 1.5-day expert consensus exercise. The review followed the PRISMA-ScR protocol, with eligibility criteria based on language, publication type, relevance to cryptocurrency fraud, and evidence provided. Researchers screened 391 academic records, 106 of which went on to the eligibility phase, and 63 of which were ultimately analysed. We screened 394 grey literature sources, 128 of which passed on to the eligibility phase, and 53 of which were included in our review. The expert consensus exercise was attended by high-profile participants from the private sector, government, and academia. It involved problem planning and analysis activities and discussion about the future of cryptocurrency crime.
Results The academic literature identified 29 different types of cryptocurrency fraud; the grey literature discussed 32 types, 14 of which were not identified in the academic literature (i.e., 47 unique types in total). Ponzi schemes and (synonymous) high yield investment programmes were most discussed across all literature. Participants in the expert consensus exercise ranked pump-and-dump schemes and ransomware as the most profitable and feasible threats, though pump-and-dumps were, notably, perceived as the least harmful type of fraud.
Conclusions The findings of this scoping review suggest cryptocurrency fraud research is rapidly developing in volume and breadth, though we remain at an early stage of thinking about future problems and scenarios involving cryptocurrencies. The findings of this work emphasise the need for better collaboration across sectors and consensus on definitions surrounding cryptocurrency fraud to address the problems identified.
BACKGROUND: Cryptocurrency fraud has become a growing global concern, with various governments reporting an increase in the frequency of and losses from cryptocurrency scams. Despite increasing fraudulent activity involving cryptocurrencies, research on the potential of cryptocurrencies for fraud has not been examined in a systematic study. This review examines the current state of knowledge about what kinds of cryptocurrency fraud currently exist, or are expected to exist in the future, and provides comprehensive definitions of the frauds identified. METHODS: The study involved a scoping review of academic research and grey literature on cryptocurrency fraud and a 1.5-day expert consensus exercise. The review followed the PRISMA-ScR protocol, with eligibility criteria based on language, publication type, relevance to cryptocurrency fraud, and evidence provided. Researchers screened 391 academic records, 106 of which went on to the eligibility phase, and 63 of which were ultimately analysed. We screened 394 grey literature sources, 128 of which passed on to the eligibility phase, and 53 of which were included in our review. The expert consensus exercise was attended by high-profile participants from the private sector, government, and academia. It involved problem planning and analysis activities and discussion about the future of cryptocurrency crime. RESULTS: The academic literature identified 29 different types of cryptocurrency fraud; the grey literature discussed 32 types, 14 of which were not identified in the academic literature (i.e., 47 unique types in total). Ponzi schemes and (synonymous) high yield investment programmes were most discussed across all literature. Participants in the expert consensus exercise ranked pump-and-dump schemes and ransomware as the most profitable and feasible threats, though pump-and-dumps were, notably, perceived as the least harmful type of fraud. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this scoping review suggest cryptocurrency fraud research is rapidly developing in volume and ...
Tackling issues that range from disruptive street gangs to online illicit markets, the authors use the insights of network analysis—a sophisticated methodology for illuminating individual and group interconnections—to suggest practical, highly targeted ways to prevent criminal behavior
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From bicycle stands configured to prevent theft to pharmaceutical packaging that thwarts counterfeiters, the authors fuse crime science and design practice to point the way forward for a new generation of crime-proofed objects used in everyday contexts
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