Suchergebnisse

International audience ; This paper aims at testing the existence of yardstick competition by estimating a fully specified vote-function on a panel data set of 104 French local governments from 1989 to 2001. When comparing the performance of their incumbent to the one of their "neighbours", voters might consider their close geographical neighbours but also the nearby cities that are similar according to some socio-economic characteristics such as population size. The estimation results show that voters sanction their incumbent if their own local housing tax is high. Moreover, we find that voters reward their incumbent when neighbouring cities that are similar in terms of demographic characteristics have high local taxes.

International audience ; This paper aims at testing the existence of yardstick competition by estimating a fully specified vote-function on a panel data set of 104 French local governments from 1989 to 2001. When comparing the performance of their incumbent to the one of their "neighbours", voters might consider their close geographical neighbours but also the nearby cities that are similar according to some socio-economic characteristics such as population size. The estimation results show that voters sanction their incumbent if their own local housing tax is high. Moreover, we find that voters reward their incumbent when neighbouring cities that are similar in terms of demographic characteristics have high local taxes.

International audience ; This paper aims at testing the existence of yardstick competition by estimating a fully specified vote-function on a panel data set of 104 French local governments from 1989 to 2001. When comparing the performance of their incumbent to the one of their "neighbours", voters might consider their close geographical neighbours but also the nearby cities that are similar according to some socio-economic characteristics such as population size. The estimation results show that voters sanction their incumbent if their own local housing tax is high. Moreover, we find that voters reward their incumbent when neighbouring cities that are similar in terms of demographic characteristics have high local taxes.

International audience ; This article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.

International audience ; This article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.

National audience ; The aim of this article is to build and estimate a model that explain and forecast the result of the French legislative elections by department. This model, that constitutes the first attempt for such geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Furthermore, its behavior for the elections of 2002 was very satisfactory. This model is thus a reliable alternative to the vote intentions polls as an electoral forecasting instrument. ; Cet article a pour objet la construction et l'estimation d'un modèle permettant d'expliquer et de prévoir le résultat des élections législatives françaises par département. Ce modèle, qui constitue la première tentative en la matière pour un niveau géographique aussi fin, met en avant le rôle des facteurs économiques et politiques dans l'explication du vote législatif. Ses performances lors des élections passées sont bonnes et son comportement lors de la mise à l'épreuve qu'ont constitué les élections de 2002 a été très satisfaisant. Ce modèle est donc une alternative sérieuse aux sondages d'intentions de vote en matière de prévision électorale.

National audience ; The aim of this article is to build and estimate a model that explain and forecast the result of the French legislative elections by department. This model, that constitutes the first attempt for such geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Furthermore, its behavior for the elections of 2002 was very satisfactory. This model is thus a reliable alternative to the vote intentions polls as an electoral forecasting instrument. ; Cet article a pour objet la construction et l'estimation d'un modèle permettant d'expliquer et de prévoir le résultat des élections législatives françaises par département. Ce modèle, qui constitue la première tentative en la matière pour un niveau géographique aussi fin, met en avant le rôle des facteurs économiques et politiques dans l'explication du vote législatif. Ses performances lors des élections passées sont bonnes et son comportement lors de la mise à l'épreuve qu'ont constitué les élections de 2002 a été très satisfaisant. Ce modèle est donc une alternative sérieuse aux sondages d'intentions de vote en matière de prévision électorale.