Suchergebnisse

This paper introduces a political methodology approach on polity modeling and simulation called artificial polity which combines political systems and political culture theories. It aims at introducing anticipatory systems as the modeling framework for the organization, operation, and dynamics of political systems. Anticipatory systems provide for the conceptual modeling of polities as self-referential systems which embed internal models. Agent-based systems provide for the simulation and experimental research of artificial polities which embed political culture as internal models. Artificial Polity is the outcome of a long-term political methodologic research project aimed at developing research frameworks and instruments for the study of state and governance with anticipatory dimensions. Eastern European democracy case studies are presented with the goal of evaluating the anticipatory performances of the Artificial Polity. Post-communist Eastern European countries case studies are presented with the goal of evaluating the anticipatory performances of the Artificial Polity Model. Relevant applications of the political anticipation framework as presented in this paper could further enhance research on (i) political systems resilience against various types of threat, (ii) political regime dynamics in specific economic and cultural contexts, and (iii) political systems stability and security issues.

AbstractThe sociological domain is different from the psychological one insofar as meaning can be communicated at the supra‐individual level. The computation of anticipatory systems enables us to distinguish between these domains in terms of weakly and strongly anticipatory systems with a structural coupling between them. Anticipatory systems have been defined as systems which entertain models of themselves. The model provides meaning to the modelled system from the perspective of hindsight, that is, by advancing along the time axis towards possible future states. Strongly anticipatory systems construct their own future states. The dynamics of weak and strong anticipations can be simulated as incursion and hyper‐incursion, respectively. Hyper‐incursion generates 'horizons of meaning' among which choices have to be made by incursive agency. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AbstractMotivationIn the three years before 2023, we have seen multiple parallel crises—from climate emergencies to economic instability, dramatic increases in costs of living, and political insecurities. Looming larger than the risks is the resultant uncertainty. Development agents, including governments, are historically unprepared for managing converging crisis. When risks are analysed and governed in narrow ways, the historically oppressed and excluded continue to carry the brunt of impact.PurposeThis article reflects on the question: How can institutions, including governments, become more anticipatory against this backdrop, to ensure that their policy and investment choices do not leave anyone behind due to lack of preparedness?Approach and methodsIt draws insights from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Asia and the Pacific's efforts since 2020 to apply more future‐fit planning and programming, recognizing that foresight is not an end in itself, but a mechanism for shaping more anticipatory institutions. It is based on qualitative learning synthesized from over three years of work to establish new systems, capabilities and processes for UNDP and its partners to engage in anticipatory risk and planning.FindingsPractices rooted in strategic foresight and anticipation can support institutions to incorporate long‐term thinking in planning and analysis, but their translation into development decisions and investments requires shifts in perspectives and risk appetite. Historically, strategic foresight has not been mainstreamed within international organizations and governments owing to: failing to embed anticipation into core systems and processes; giving more attention to tools and building skills than to the demand for alternative decision‐making models and to risk tolerance; relying overly on external support and static models; insufficiently attending to organizational culture and relational drivers of thinking and action.Policy implicationsWe suggest four interconnected levers to help sustain impact and equity when bringing anticipatory approaches into policy processes: ensure design elasticity to encourage local, context‐specific models of anticipatory decision‐making; build anticipatory systems as a base to understand future risks, harms, and correlating impacts; interrogate what counts as legitimate and relevant evidence for policy decisions; cultivate imagination as an act of inquiry.

To understand news rhythms, scholars have primarily studied how the rituals and routines of news organizations align with the practices and expectations of audiences. The rhythms of today's networked press, though, are set not only by journalists and consumers but also by largely invisible digital infrastructures: software, data, and technologies from outside newsrooms that are increasingly intertwined with journalistic work. Here, we argue that the rhythms of the contemporary, networked press live in the materials, practices, and values of hybrid, time-setting sociotechnical systems, a new concept we call anticipatory news infrastructure. We explicate this concept through a typology of sociotechnical dynamics, showing how the networked press is poised to sense events, structure journalistic work, predict and commodify traffic, architect audience relations, and categorize content. We argue that these infrastructures anticipate possible public life, thus creating anticipation publics through their largely invisible power to shape expectations of journalists and audiences alike.

This article presents the ethical dilemma related to under what circumstances vulnerabilities should be disclosed. Vulnerabilities exist in hardware and software, and can be as a consequence of programming errors or design flaws. Threat actors can exploit these vulnerabilities to gain otherwise unintended access to information systems, resources and/or stored information. In other words, they can be used to impact the confidentiality, integrity and availability of information in information systems. As a result, various types of vulnerabilities are highly sought after since they enable this type of access. The most highly sought are so-called "zero-day"-vulnerabilities. These are vulnerabilities that exist but are unknown, and when exploited, enable one way of entry into a system that is not thought possible. This is also why zero-day vulnerabilities are very popular among criminal organizations, states and state-sponsored advanced persistent threats. The other side of the coin is when a state identifies a zero-day, and ends up in the ethical dilemma of whether to release the news and inform the vendor to patch it, i.e. close the vulnerability, or to use it for offensive or intelligence purposes. This article employs these distinctions to apply anticipatory ethics in the Stuxnet-case. Stuxnet was a computer software that was allegedly developed by the U.S. together with Israel to disrupt Iran's development of uranium for their nuclear program. More exactly, it was developed to disable the uranium centrifuges used to enrich uranium. To achieve this, Stuxnet exploited four zero-day vulnerabilities and, according to some experts, managed to delay Iran's nuclear program by one to two-years, forcing them to the negotiation table. Using vulnerabilities like zero-days presents opportunities but also risks. The results of the application of anticipatory ethics to the Stuxnet case are then compared with the "Osirak"-case and the "al-Kibar"-case. Osirak was the nuclear reactor in Iraq and was bombed in 1981; al-Kibar was the nuclear reactor being built up in Syria, also bombed in 2007.

The passenger aviation industry has embraced electronic automation. Fully autonomous passenger flight is a near-future technical possibility, but questions remain regarding how potential air travellers might receive such a technological leap. This paper contributes to and expands the existing literature on public perceptions of autonomous flight, presenting the results of an exploratory study of non-expert anticipatory assumptions (AA). A new collaborative storytelling futures method was designed, combining the benefits of the functions of stories as anticipatory systems with the stronger participatory advantages of games. The study conducted three focus groups with self-selected public participants to generate participatory stories set in futures where autonomous aircraft were prevalent. The qualitative analysis of the stories demonstrates that non-experts situate their beliefs and attitudes towards new technologies within frameworks indebted to their present cultural and political context. Public perception of autonomous flight is determined by AA including technological failure, the trustworthiness of business and governments, and the climate crisis. Work remains to be done if relevant stakeholders wish to communicate potential positive effects of autonomous flight technology. This research demonstrates the value of collaborative storytelling as a highly adaptable method to generate futures involving a wide variety of technologies. ; This work was supported by The Boeing Company [grant number RG93345(17217)].