Suchergebnisse

Mode of access: Internet. ; Superseded by its Studies in economics and commerce.

When Does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-corrected RDD estimates that apply robust inference are, however, in line with the experimental estimate. Rank Effects in Political Promotions We study the effect of candidates' personal vote ranks on promotions to political power in an open-list proportional representation system. Using a regression discontinuity design and data from Finnish local elections, we find that ranking first within a party enhances a politician's chances of getting promoted to the position of municipal board chair. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism behind the rank effects is primarily unrelated to electoral incentives, but is rather related to party-specific norms or political culture. Victorian Voting: The Origins of Party Orientation and Class Alignment Using individual elector level panel data from nineteenth-century United Kingdom poll books, we reassess the development of a party-centered electorate. We show that (i) the electorate was party-centered by the time of the extension of the franchise in 1867; (ii) a decline in candidate-centered voting is largely attributable to changes in the behavior of the working class; and (iii) the enfranchised working class aligned with the Liberal left. Our findings can plausibly explain the subsequent development of the party system. Class, Social Mobility, and Voting: Evidence from Historical Voting Records We examine the mechanisms of class-based voting by evaluating the effects of social mobility on voting behavior in the nineteenth-century England. While we do not find any strong evidence of a cleavage along the working and middle class divide, we find that he landed gentry, farm workers, non-skilled workers and white-collar workers voted on average more for the Conservatives, and petty bourgeoisie and skilled workers for the Liberals. The changes in voting behavior due to social mobility are immediate and mainly consistent with the same cleavage. Public Employees as Politicians: Evidence from Close Elections We analyze the effect of municipal employees' political representation in municipal councils on local public spending. One more councilor employed by the public sector increases spending by about 1%. The effect largely comes through the largest party and is specific to the employment sector of the municipal employee. Politician Quality, Ideology, and Fiscal Policy Using local councils in Finland as a test bed, I show that (i) electing more high-income, incumbent, and competent politicians improves fiscal sustainability outcomes but does not decrease the size of the public sector, and (ii) symmetrically, electing more university-educated local councilors leads to an increase in public spending without any adverse effects on fiscal sustainability. Survey data reveal that the qualities are differentially associated with economic ideology, and these correlations tally with the policy effects.

Abstract
Does academic writing in economics reflect the political orientation of economists? We use machine learning to measure partisanship in academic economics articles. We predict the observed political behaviour of a subset of economists using phrases from their academic articles, show good out-of-sample predictive accuracy and then predict partisanship for all economists. We then use these predictions to examine patterns of political language in economics. We estimate journal-specific effects on predicted ideology, controlling for author and year fixed effects, that accord with existing survey-based measures. We show considerable sorting of economists into fields of research by predicted partisanship. We also show that partisanship is detectable even within fields, even across those estimating the same theoretical parameter. Using policy-relevant parameters collected from previous meta-analyses, we then show that imputed partisanship is correlated with estimated parameters, such that the implied policy prescription is consistent with partisan leaning. For example, we find that going from the most left-wing authored estimate of the taxable top income elasticity to the most right-wing authored estimate decreases the optimal tax rate from 77% to 60%.

This article deals with the evolution of the international petroleum sector since 1973 with a special view to interdependence between the economic and political factors that influence it. Two issues are focused upon: (1) the effects of the nationalization of oil companies on the sharing of oil rents and on changes in the structure of the oil market; and (2) the determination of oil prices. The latter involves a discussion of, on the one hand, the political and economic behaviour of the United States and Saudi Arabia and, on the other, the combination of cooperation and conflict that has tended to characterize relations among OPEC countries.

As economic adviser and manager of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski observed at first hand the crisis that preceded the overthrow of the Belaúnde administration on October 3, 1968. His role in the economic policies of that era enables him to provide an insider's view and analysis of the financial and economic problems besetting a democratic regime in a developing country. The author pays particular attention to the reasons for the difficulties of the administration after a promising beginning. He considers the main actors during the period 1966-1968, their central motives, the role of the opposition-controlled Congress, the government's efforts to cope with economic and financial problems, and the role of U.S. foreign policy. The initial successes of the administration in areas such as social participation depended on the initiative of a few key figures—a dependence that contributed to the crisis of 1966-1968.Originally published in 1977.The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These paperback editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905

Logistic models are widely used in economics and other disciplines and are easily available as part of many statistical software packages. This text for graduates, practitioners and researchers in economics, medicine and statistics, which was originally published in 2003, explains the theory underlying logit analysis and gives a thorough explanation of the technique of estimation. The author has provided many empirical applications as illustrations and worked examples. A large data set - drawn from Dutch car ownership statistics - is provided online for readers to practise the techniques they have learned. Several varieties of logit model have been developed independently in various branches of biology, medicine and other disciplines. This book takes its inspiration from logit analysis as it is practised in economics, but it also pays due attention to developments in these other fields