Suchergebnisse

AbstractIntroductionCross‐sectional incidence testing is used to estimate population‐level HIV incidence and measure the impact of prevention interventions. There are limited data evaluating the accuracy of estimates in settings where antiretroviral therapy coverage and levels of viral suppression are high. Understanding cross‐sectional incidence estimates in these settings is important as viral suppression can lead to false recent test results. We compared the accuracy of multi‐assay algorithms (MAA) for incidence estimation to that observed in the community‐randomized HPTN 071 (PopART) trial, where the majority of participants with HIV infection were virally suppressed.MethodsHIV incidence was assessed during the second year of the study, and included only individuals who were tested for HIV at visits 1 and 2 years after the start of the study (2016–2017). Incidence estimates from three MAAs were compared to the observed incidence between years 1 and 2 (MAA‐C: LAg‐Avidity <2.8 ODn + BioRad Avidity Index <95% + VL >400 copies/ml; LAg+VL MAA: LAg‐Avidity <1.5 ODn + VL >1000 copies/ml; Rapid+VL MAA: Asanté recent rapid result + VL >1000 copies/ml). The mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) used for the three MAAs was 248, 130 and 180 days, respectively.Results and discussionThe study consisted of: 15,845 HIV‐negative individuals; 4406 HIV positive at both visits; and 221 who seroconverted between visits. Viral load (VL) data were available for all HIV‐positive participants at the 2‐year visit. Sixty four (29%) of the seroconverters and 3227 (72%) prevelant positive participants were virally supressed (<400 copies/ml). Observed HIV incidence was 1.34% (95% CI: 1.17–1.53). Estimates of incidence were similar to observed incidence for MAA‐C, 1.26% (95% CI: 1.02–1.51) and the LAg+VL MAA, 1.29 (95% CI: 0.97–1.62). Incidence estimated by the Rapid+VL MAA was significantly lower than observed incidence (0.92%, 95% CI: 0.69–1.15, p<0.01).ConclusionsMAA‐C and the LAg+VL MAA provided accurate point estimates of incidence in this cohort with high levels of viral suppression. The Rapid+VL significantly underestimated incidence, suggesting that the MDRI recommended by the manufacturer is too long or the assay is not accurately detecting enough recent infections.

The paper finds a moderate evolution in public debt ratios since debt relief among heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI) recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, with certain exceptions. For eight countries the authors find rapid rates of debt accumulation, which can return them to pre-HIPC debt levels in only a few years. Short-term domestic debt has, despite early fears, in general not filled the borrowing space created by debt relief. However, external debt accumulation on commercial terms in some cases presages repayment spikes, which may combine with short-term domestic obligations to amplify refinancing risk and cause abrupt reductions in public spending, with damaging consequences for development. Finally, despite reduced debt, African economies continue to be commodity dependent and prone to shocks. As global interest rates and commodity prices revert to historically more customary levels, these countries should remain prudent: avoid tax-base erosion, prevent large recurrent spending hikes, and invest wisely in growth, by executing projects effectively to enhance infrastructure. These fiscal fundamentals will be as important for debt sustainability as how much is borrowed and on which terms.

What process should be followed to help governments with foreign debts that they can no longer service move to a more sustainable situation? Multilateral institutions and governments adopted the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, supplemented by the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), as an approach for the poorest countries. However, they offered only the most general guidance for how the governments of countries that borrow primarily from private foreign sources should resolve a debt crisis. In essence, the international official sector says, "the parties should work it out." And they have, sometimes in an orderly and smooth way, and sometimes not. Numerous authors have proposed policy initiatives to bring more predictability and fairer outcomes into sovereign debt workouts for non-HIPCs (in some cases also aiming to improve on the HIPC process), ranging from sovereign bankruptcy regimes modeled on national corporate bankruptcy systems, to arbitration processes, to standing availability of mediation services (see Kaiser, 2008). Others have proposed informal guidelines or a "code of good conduct" to which debtors and creditors might subscribe as a way to reduce uncertainty about how debt restructuring would proceed. The latter will be the focus of this paper.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 60-65). ; External debt burden has been viewed as one of the key impediments to economic growth and a cause of widespread poverty in the Heavily lndebted Poor Countries (HIPCs). To join efforts of the HIPCs in ï¬ ghting poverty, the international donor community granted substantial debt relief through different initiatives including among others; unilateral bilateral agreements, the Paris Club Agreements, debt buyback schemes, the I-IIPC Initiative and its successor, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). All these initiatives were expected to increase public spending in social priority sectors and ultimately reduce poverty incidence in the HIPC-s. This study assesses, firstly whether the debt relief has helped to increase Government spending on education and health sectors in Tanzania and, secondly, whether increased ï¬ scal spending on the sectors has translated into improvement in the primary and secondary school enrollments and life expectancy. A system of structural equations is estimated within a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework. The ï¬ ndings suggest increases in Government expenditure on education and health through debt relief. Primary and secondary school enrolments improve with increased Government spending on education and health. Institutional quality is found to be signiï¬ cant in determining education spending and educational indicators. However, life expectancy was not found to respond to public Spending, possibly due to the inherent gestation period in health related indicators and quality of data used. Nevertheless, the ï¬ ndings, though based on short-run series, give an insight that in the long-run, the cumulative effects of debt relief can contribute towards successes in the ï¬ ght against poverty and ultimately attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGS).

Zambia has successfully raised its average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate since the early 2000s. Between 2004 and 2014, it averaged 7.4 percent per year. This success was driven by an improvement in the macroeconomic indicators (relative to the 1980s and 1990s), debt relief, heavy investment in the social sectors (by the government and cooperating partners), and a large increase in mining and agricultural production since 2004. This success raised average p Rapid urbanization has been accompanied by a decrease in urban poverty incidence, but masks sluggish growth in small towns and cities. After a decade of de-urbanization in the 1990s, urbanization has been an important driver of change over the past 15 years. However, from 2000 to 2014, urban growth in Zambia has been significantly more focused on the capital city than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa. The annual population growth of Lusaka is over twice the average for Sub-Saharan Africa (1 percent). In contrast, the share of secondary towns in Zambia is growing more slowly than in the rest of Africa (by only 0.7 percent in Zambia compared with 1.8 percent elsewhere). These disparities may exacerbate uneven territorial development, as small towns and cities play a crucial role in strengthening the links among firms; between firms and consumers; and within local, provincial, national, and international supply chains. er capita incomes after decades of economic volatility since the country's independence in 1964. The current development model being pursued has imposed environmental and resource liabilities. Agricultural growth has been based on increasing land use rather than improved productivity, leading to rapid deforestation. Mining activities have resulted in pollution, and Zambia also faces high and growing climate change impacts. Copper price volatility also continues to challenge macroeconomic and fiscal management. Debt levels have soared to risky levels only 12 years after the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) programs provided US$6.5 billion of debt relief from 2005.

The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine's external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country's GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security. The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total. The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative). The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.

Ethiopia's external debt stock has risen rapidly and has almost quadrupled even if debt relief was granted under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries /Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (HIPC/MDRI) in 2006 and other problems being facilitated. The impact of this debt burden is enormous in economic and human development of Ethiopia which can be observed from the debt overhang. This entails a need for more comprehensive study which rigorously examines public debt management practices in Ethiopia. Hence, the purpose of this study was to assess the debt management strategy and the precise debt management practice of Ethiopia starting from 2002 after Ethiopia restarts debt management practice from ground due to the debt relief and debt cancellation granted by various multilateral and bilateral creditors up to 2011. The research employed a descriptive research analysis which involves both quantitative and qualitative tools to drive concrete findings. In order to extract the necessary information for the study, document review was considered as the major tool for secondary data gathering while primary data was gathered through key informant interview with directors and managers of debt management unit in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development. In visualizing the major components of Ethiopia's debt management strategy the main objective focuses on debt sustainability analysis and gives less attention to parts of debt management strategy such as, fiscal, legal, institutional and operational measures. Despite the efforts in debt management activities, it is still at nascent stage and not performing at its maximum potential. The major challenges faced by debt management practices includes; shortage of human labor force, minimum skills of negotiating teams as well as those who engaged in monitoring and evaluation process, lack of debt management strategy, inaccessibility of alternative creditors to make a choice, late disbursement made by creditors after loan agreement signing, the inability of the government to fund expenditures from treasury and non existence of past performance evaluation process. According to the debt management directorates study, even if Ethiopia's debt is affordable, the time to time plan of the government necessitating large amount of finance may put risk on future debt capacity

The World Bank estimates that Africa's inadequate infrastructure decreases productivity by around 40 per cent every year and reduces national economic growth by 2 per cent annually. Such disadvantages hinder private sector investment, which is a key driver of job and wealth creation. Financing the development of infrastructure in an appropriate manner has been a leading topic in the continents development agenda. In order to remedy the infrastructure deficit problem, more and more African countries are increasing their public debts by borrowing in the international markets to finance their infrastructure deficits in the hope that it will ultimately spur economic growth and attract more investment. SSA's access to the international markets has grown significantly, facilitated by easing global financial conditions. By end March 2014, 13 countries had issued international sovereign bonds, for reasons that include infrastructure building. The sub-Saharan Africa's region's access to international markets has come under much attention lately as debt levels are rising with fears that they may reach the unsustainable pre –HIPC levels. For example, Zambia's total debt burden stood at an unsustainably high USD5.4 billion in 2005 – equivalent to 74% of the country's GDP and almost 208% of its foreign exchange earnings (IHS Global Insights, 2014). The attainment of debt relief under the IMF and World Bank's Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in early 2006 dramatically decreased the country's debt holdings to less than 25% of GDP. However, in the third quarter of 2012, the government issued its first Eurobond and raised debt capital of USD 750 million. This was followed by a USD 1 billion Eurobond issue in the second quarter of 2014 (IHS Global Insights, 2014) with the stated intention of using the funds for infrastructural development and maintenance. However, according to the latest IMF statement on Zambia released on 6 June 2014, Zambia's macroeconomic situation, though potentially promising, is in trouble and needs urgent fixing. It appears that the government of Zambia wants an IMF funding arrangement, possibly a bailout (Zambian Economist, 2014). In the face of mounting evidence that access to the international capital markets and rising public debt are more likely to have enhanced vulnerability than growth, this paper examines the determinants of economic growth in a panel of 15 countries. It examines the impact of external debt, total public debt and infrastructure expenditure on economic growth in the southern African region over a period of 10 years (between 2004 and 2014). The findings suggest an inverse relationship between external debt and total public debt against economic growth. The findings also suggest that there is a positive relationship between infrastructure development and economic growth amongst the countries in the southern Africa region. These relationships were found to be insignificant, suggesting that other factors outside of the variables of infrastructure expenditure, external debt and total public debt are influencing economic growth (or slowdown) in the region. The paper also examines the current debt situation in the 15 countries and policy considerations are also presented.