Land Use Change and Human Health
In: Integrating Ecology and Poverty Reduction, S. 167-186
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In: Integrating Ecology and Poverty Reduction, S. 167-186
In: International journal of sustainable development & world ecology, Band 6, Heft 3, S. 153-154
ISSN: 1745-2627
In: Population and development review, Band 23, Heft 1, S. 139
ISSN: 1728-4457
Politische und sozioökonomische Rahmenbedingungen haben entscheidenden Einfluss auf Landnutzungswandel; die relative Bedeutung dieser Faktoren untereinander ist jedoch oftmals unklar. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, durch die Untersuchung der Auswirkungen der politischen und sozioökonomischen Transformation auf Landnutzungswandel in Osteuropa zu einem besseren Verständnis solcher übergreifenden Einflussfaktoren beizutragen. Am Beispiel des Dreiländerecks Polen-Slowakei-Ukraine in den Karpaten wurden hierzu grenzüberschreitende Landschaftsvergleiche durchgeführt, da solche Vergleiche die Entkopplung der Faktoren allgemeiner Landnutzungstrends von Faktoren länderspezifischer Veränderungen ermöglichen. Darüber hinaus sind die Auswirkungen postsozialistischen Landschaftswandels auf die Karpaten, einem Gebiet mit einzigartigem ökologischen Wert, bisher weitestgehend unerforscht. Mit Hilfe von Landsat TM/ETM+ Satellitendaten aus dem Jahr 2000 wurden rezente Landschaftsunterschiede zwischen Ländern quantifiziert. Auf der Basis von Bildern von 1986-2000 wurde anschliessend überprüft, ob Länderunterschiede auf sozialistischen oder post-sozialistischen Landschaftswandel zurückführbar sind. Die Ergebnisse dieser Analysen zeigten weit verbreiteten Landnutzungswandel nach 1989 als Folge von sich verschlechternden wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen, geschwächten Institutionen und gesellschaftlichem Wandel. Die Länder unterschieden sich jedoch auch deutlich hinsichtlich Forstveränderungen, Brachfallung und Parzellierung von Ackerland. Diese Unterschiede lassen sich durch verschiedene Besitzverhältnisse, Bewirtschaftungsformen und Landreformen erklären. Während sich Polen und die Slowakei landschaftlich seit 1989 annähern, entfernt sich die Ukraine zunehmend. Diese Arbeit unterstreicht die Bedeutung ökonomischer und institutioneller Veränderungen für Landschaftswandel und zeigt, wie unterschiedliche Besitzstrukturen und Landreformen Landschaftswandel beeinflussen. ; Broad-scale political and socio-economic conditions are powerful determinants of land use change. Yet, their relative importance is unclear. The main goal of this thesis was to increase the understanding of such broad-scale drivers of land use change by studying how Eastern Europe's landscapes were affected by the political and socio-economic transition after the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989. The border triangle of Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine in the Carpathians was selected as a study area, because cross-border comparisons of land use change allow for decoupling overall trends in the transition period from country specific changes. Moreover, the Carpathians are of exceptional ecological value, but little is known about land use effects on these ecosystems after 1989. Post-socialist land use change was quantified based on Landsat TM/ETM+ images by (1) comparing contemporary (year 2000) landscapes among countries, and (2) using images from 1986 to 2000 to investigate whether differences originated from socialist or post-socialist land use change. Results indicated that forest change, farmland abandonment, and farmland parcelization were widespread in the transition period, likely due to worsening economic conditions, weakened institutions, and societal change. However, land use trends also differed strongly among the three countries due to dissimilar land ownership patterns, land management practices, and land reforms. Poland and Slovakia converged in the transition period in terms of land cover, while Ukraine clearly diverged. This thesis provided compelling evidence of the importance of economic and institutional change for land use change and underpinned the pivotal role of ownership patterns and land management policies. These factors were important to understand land use change in Eastern Europe, and they are likely equally important elsewhere.
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In: Ecosystems and Land Use Change; Geophysical Monograph Series, S. 159-167
In: Verstegen , J A , van der Hilst , F , Woltjer , G , Karssenberg , D , de Jong , S M & Faaij , A P C 2016 , ' What can and can't we say about indirect land-use change in Brazil using an integrated economic - land-use change model? ' , Biomass & Bioenergy , vol. 8 , no. 3 , pp. 561-578 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12270 ; ISSN:1757-1693
It is commonly recognized that large uncertainties exist in modelled biofuel-induced indirect land-use change, but until now, spatially explicit quantification of such uncertainties by means of error propagation modelling has never been performed. In this study, we demonstrate a general methodology to stochastically calculate direct and indirect land-use change (dLUC and iLUC) caused by an increasing demand for biofuels, with an integrated economic - land-use change model. We use the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET, connected to the spatially explicit land-use change model PLUC. We quantify important uncertainties in the modelling chain. Next, dLUC and iLUC projections for Brazil up to 2030 at different spatial scales and the uncertainty herein are assessed. Our results show that cell-based (5x5km(2)) probabilities of dLUC range from 0 to 0.77, and of iLUC from 0 to 0.43, indicating that it is difficult to project exactly where dLUC and iLUC will occur, with more difficulties for iLUC than for dLUC. At country level, dLUC area can be projected with high certainty, having a coefficient of variation (cv) of only 0.02, while iLUC area is still uncertain, having a cv of 0.72. The latter means that, considering the 95% confidence interval, the iLUC area in Brazil might be 2.4 times as high or as low as the projected mean. Because this confidence interval is so wide that it is likely to straddle any legislation threshold, our opinion is that threshold evaluation for iLUC indicators should not be implemented in legislation. For future studies, we emphasize the need for provision of quantitative uncertainty estimates together with the calculated LUC indicators, to allow users to evaluate the reliability of these indicators and the effects of their uncertainty on the impacts of land-use change, such as greenhouse gas emissions.
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In: Ashgate studies in environmental and natural resource economics
International audience ; This paper builds on the disconnection between scientific evidence and policy assumptions about the temporal profile of land use change (LUC) emissions. Whereas natural scientists find evidence of a decreasing time profile of LUC emissions, European energy policy relies on a steady time profile. We investigate the consequences of using such a uniform (constant) time profile when assessing biofuel projects with cost-benefit analysis, a widespread economic tool for public project assessment. We show that the use of the uniform time profile distorts LUC emissions costs downwards (upwards) when carbon prices grow slower (faster) than the discount rate. We illustrate our results with the conversion of grassland to wheat cultivation for bioethanol production in France. Under current assumptions in public project assessment, we find a 70% overestimation of costs related to direct LUC emissions. We propose two tools to aid in decision-making and address the decision error. Finally, we provide contextual policy recommendations.
BASE
International audience ; This paper builds on the disconnection between scientific evidence and policy assumptions about the temporal profile of land use change (LUC) emissions. Whereas natural scientists find evidence of a decreasing time profile of LUC emissions, European energy policy relies on a steady time profile. We investigate the consequences of using such a uniform (constant) time profile when assessing biofuel projects with cost-benefit analysis, a widespread economic tool for public project assessment. We show that the use of the uniform time profile distorts LUC emissions costs downwards (upwards) when carbon prices grow slower (faster) than the discount rate. We illustrate our results with the conversion of grassland to wheat cultivation for bioethanol production in France. Under current assumptions in public project assessment, we find a 70% overestimation of costs related to direct LUC emissions. We propose two tools to aid in decision-making and address the decision error. Finally, we provide contextual policy recommendations.
BASE
International audience ; This paper builds on the disconnection between scientific evidence and policy assumptions about the temporal profile of land use change (LUC) emissions. Whereas natural scientists find evidence of a decreasing time profile of LUC emissions, European energy policy relies on a steady time profile. We investigate the consequences of using such a uniform (constant) time profile when assessing biofuel projects with cost-benefit analysis, a widespread economic tool for public project assessment. We show that the use of the uniform time profile distorts LUC emissions costs downwards (upwards) when carbon prices grow slower (faster) than the discount rate. We illustrate our results with the conversion of grassland to wheat cultivation for bioethanol production in France. Under current assumptions in public project assessment, we find a 70% overestimation of costs related to direct LUC emissions. We propose two tools to aid in decision-making and address the decision error. Finally, we provide contextual policy recommendations.
BASE
International audience ; This paper builds on the disconnection between scientific evidence and policy assumptions about the temporal profile of land use change (LUC) emissions. Whereas natural scientists find evidence of a decreasing time profile of LUC emissions, European energy policy relies on a steady time profile. We investigate the consequences of using such a uniform (constant) time profile when assessing biofuel projects with cost-benefit analysis, a widespread economic tool for public project assessment. We show that the use of the uniform time profile distorts LUC emissions costs downwards (upwards) when carbon prices grow slower (faster) than the discount rate. We illustrate our results with the conversion of grassland to wheat cultivation for bioethanol production in France. Under current assumptions in public project assessment, we find a 70% overestimation of costs related to direct LUC emissions. We propose two tools to aid in decision-making and address the decision error. Finally, we provide contextual policy recommendations.
BASE
International audience ; This paper builds on the disconnection between scientific evidence and policy assumptions about the temporal profile of land use change (LUC) emissions. Whereas natural scientists find evidence of a decreasing time profile of LUC emissions, European energy policy relies on a steady time profile. We investigate the consequences of using such a uniform (constant) time profile when assessing biofuel projects with cost-benefit analysis, a widespread economic tool for public project assessment. We show that the use of the uniform time profile distorts LUC emissions costs downwards (upwards) when carbon prices grow slower (faster) than the discount rate. We illustrate our results with the conversion of grassland to wheat cultivation for bioethanol production in France. Under current assumptions in public project assessment, we find a 70% overestimation of costs related to direct LUC emissions. We propose two tools to aid in decision-making and address the decision error. Finally, we provide contextual policy recommendations.
BASE
Presents spatial theories and methodologies that support an integrated approach to analysis of land use change. Focusing on spatial representation and modeling, this book addresses such important scientific issues as the dynamics of change, integration and feedback between system elements, and scale issues in space and time.
In: Land use policy: the international journal covering all aspects of land use, Band 10, Heft 4, S. 323-324
ISSN: 0264-8377