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AbstractIn what ways might the digital renminbi (RMB), also known as e-CNY, bolster China's efforts to internationalize its currency? Utilizing Susan Strange's concept of currency negotiation and borrowing the concept of infrastructures from science, technology, and society studies, this article argues that RMB internationalization is a gradual process that relies heavily on negotiation involving both state and non-state actors (i.e., private financial authorities). It further argues that while e-CNY may create new opportunities for RMB internationalization, it also raises new challenges. First, the e-CNY's lack of coordination with other central banks represents a challenge for future evolution and standardization with other digital currency platforms, thus rendering first-mover status a potential disadvantage. Second, as a result of China's divergent data governance direction from both the US and the EU, the e-CNY is disadvantaged when it comes to interoperability, trust of users, and diversity of data. The purpose of this study is not to predict the future of RMB internationalization once the e-CNY rolls out but rather to highlight various ways in which the latter may influence the former in order to widen analyses of the topic.

RESUMO Este artigo investiga os impactos da revolução digital no sistema monetário e financeiro internacional (SMFI), com ênfase nos efeitos gerados pelo lançamento da moeda digital da China, o e-CNY. Argumenta-se que, do ponto de vista de países emergentes e em desenvolvimento (PEED), as transformações da era digital implicam considerar os custos e os benefícios de se implementar as próprias moedas digitais de bancos centrais (CBDCs, na sigla em inglês), em um contexto no qual esta "nova forma" não altera substancialmente o caráter hierárquico e assimétrico do SMFI. A criação do e-CNY gera novas disjuntivas, como, por exemplo, a escolha entre desenvolver sistemas que sejam interoperáveis com o sistema chinês, ou não. Este aspecto carrega um forte componente político na atual conjuntura de questionamento do status quo em várias dimensões do sistema internacional. Para ilustrar este aspecto, o artigo traz evidências empíricas sobre a evolução nas interconexões entre a economia chinesa e os principais PEED em dimensões como convergência nos ciclos de negócios e nos ciclos financeiros. A maior integração com a China pode funcionar como um eventual fator de atração para os PEED que, assim, poderia gravitar mais em torno do e-CNY em um cenário de maior contestação da posição do dólar estadunidense.

Talking about the dollar as an reserve currency next week [2], and noticed these interesting trends. Figure 1: Share of FX turnover in CNY (red square), in CAD (chartreuse triangle), in April. Normalized shares to 1.00. Source: BIS Triennial Surveys. A similar pattern holds for central bank reserve holdings as reported in the IMF's COFER. […]

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/snde.2012.16.issue-3/1558-3708.1878/1558-3708.1878.xml. ; This paper models the return series of USD/CNY exchange rate by considering the conditional mean and conditional volatility simultaneously. An index type functional-coefficient model is adopted to model the conditional mean part and a GARCH type model with a policy dummy variable is applied to the conditional volatility model. We show that the government policy indeed has an impact on the exchange rate dynamic. To evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting ability, a prediction interval is computed by employing nonparametric conditional quantile regression. Our method outperforms other popular models in terms of various criteria.